FanPost

Handicapping the Braves Opening Day Roster & Spring Training Rumblings (*Veteran Update)

Spring Training Position Battles, Young Guys in Camp, and Opening Day Roster Options

Since rosterbation has gone into hibernation (or rather prospecterbation?) I thought it would be fun to handicap/breakdown some of the potential roster construction during Spring Training. Earlier this week the Braves announced Non-Roster Invitees to Major League camp, thereby essentially setting the pool of players to chose from for the upcoming season, barring any additional signings. The first part of this process is determining which guys we could safely say are locks for the 25 man roster:

Locks:

C - Christian Bethancourt, A.J. Pierzynski

1B - Freddie Freeman

2B - Alberto Callaspo

SS - Andrelton Simmons

3B - Chris Johnson

LF - Jonny Gomes

CF - B.J. Upton

RF - Nick Markakis

Bench - Jace Peterson

Rotation - Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller

Bullpen - James Russell, Shae Simmons, Josh Outman, Jim Johnson, Jason Grilli, Craig Kimbrel

Total: 20

Notes: I definitely considered adding Zoilo Almonte, Luis Avilan, and Arodys Vizcaino as locks for the roster. Ultimately though there were enough scenarios I could concoct that prevented me from their inclusion. I included Jace Peterson as a lock because I believe he will on be the roster no matter if wins a starting job, is part of a platoon, or serves as a bench player, he has nothing left to prove in the minors.

With a total of 20 players considered "locks" this leaves 5 spots of for grabs. Now let's look at some of the position battles that could be happening this spring. In the infield there are competitions at 2B, 3B, and bench IF. The outfield competitions include a LH platoon mate for LF and potential 5th OF who can play CF. The rotation gives a competition between older FAs and young prospects for the 5th spot, and the bullpen has potentially two more openings for middle relief work. I am breaking down these competitions by the players competing with designations for the favorite, the next in line, the dark horse, and any young prospects in camp. These considerations come with a few caveats which I will explain after each competition breakdown below.

Second Base:

Favorite - Alberto Callaspo, Next in line - Jace Peterson, Dark Horse - Kelly Johnson, 'Spec - Jose Peraza

Veteran presents. I think the Braves give Callaspo every chance to win the job in Spring Training with the idea that he is merely a placeholder until Peraza gets called up later this year. With the Braves not competing and no need to start Peraza's service clock I think him being sent back to the minors to start the season is the only real competition factor at this spot. If the switch hitting Callaspo hits at all I think that spoils Peterson's and Johnson's bids at the starting job as either could then be used as a part of a platoon elsewhere.

Third Base:

Favorite - Chris Johnson, Next in line - Jace Peterson, Dark Horse - Kelly Johnson

The Lord of BABIP reigns. The Braves are stuck with Chris Johnson for the foreseeable future, and I think he hits enough in Spring Training to at least partially hold on to the starting role. Will he perform like his 2013 or 2014 season? Probably somewhere in between. Jace Peterson again I think fails to win the job outright, but I certainly believe there is a strong possibility of there being a platoon here with Johnson and Peterson. And given Fredi's ineptitude at times, it probably won't be a straight forward platoon, nonetheless I believe Peterson earns significant AB's from the start of the season. As a dark horse candidate Kelly Johnson would probably have to crush the ball and show some serious slick fielding at the hot corner to even be considered here. I didn't count Rio Ruiz as a Young 'Spec here because I don't think he gets nearly enough AB's here before he is reassigned to minor league camp.

Bench IF:

Favorite - Phil Gosselin, Next in line - Kelly Johnson, Dark Horse - Pedro Ciriaco

Once again with Peterson assumed as a roster lock I give the slight edge to Gosselin to make the roster as another back-up infielder because he can back up three positions and is already on the 40 man roster. I personally think he's the best option to back up Simmons at shortstop. If Kelly Johnson hits I certainly thinks he gives himself a fighting chance for this roster spot, he would then potentially be the first LH pinch hitter off the bench. Ciriaco can backup on the left side on infield defensively, but most likely will not hit enough to be a viable option.

Left Field Platoon:

Favorite - Zoilo Almonte, Next in line - Todd Cunningham, Dark Horse - Joey Terdoslavich, 'Spec - Dian Toscano

It's all but guaranteed that Jonny Gomes will form the RH part of the platoon in LF, Zoilo Almonte is in position to lock down the other half of the platoon as his job to lose in Spring Training. Almonte is out of options and had shown promise in the Yankees minor league system, yet has only seen one extended look in his career thus far. Todd Cunningham, who somehow isn't a part-time coach given his tenure in the minors, is the guy I see as first runner-up. The switch hitter can cover all three OF positions, but the bat doesn't play as well in the corners and as the LH platoon mate it would be hard to justify giving him two-thirds of the ABs. As another lifer in the minors Terdoslavich actually has some potential to win this job if he hits well, however his power and contact rates have yet to translate to the big leagues. Dian Toscano is the great unknown, and while his future is most likely as the primary 4th OF his chances of making the roster lie with his ability to hit against stateside pitching.

5th Outfielder:

Favorite - Eury Perez, Next in line - Todd Cunningham, 'Spec - Dian Toscano

Similar arguments here as with the competition for LF platoon, but the only real reason to carry a 5th outfielder is for defense in CF and speed. Eury Perez fits that bill best if the Braves decide to go that route, he is also out of options and subject to waivers if he fails to make the squad. Cunningham can cover CF in an emergency, but his ability to be optioned is why he loses out here. This may be a better role for Toscano in the future, but I assume the Braves want him to get regular ABs ultimately taking him out of the running.

5th Starter:

Favorite - Eric Stults, Next in line - Cody Martin, Dark Horse - Wandy Rodriguez, Dark Horse - Chien-Ming Wang, 'Spec - Mike Foltynewicz

There are a plethora options for the 5th spot in the starting rotation for a Braves team that really doesn't look to be going anywhere in 2015, that said it is certainly a good problem to have. I give Eric Stults the upperhand in this contest given that he has the track record for eating innings and remaining healthy, he is the warmest body and therefore wins the job. I firmly believe however that Cody Martin battles the entire spring to win the job, despite being left unprotected in the Rule 5 draft Martin's upside is also his durability. For Rodriguez or Wang to win the 5th spot, we would have to see some seriously crazy stuff beyond just good pitching and remaining healthy. that said we've seen this organization work miracles before (see Freddy Garcia, Ben Sheets, and Aaron Harang). Finally we have the prized arm of the Evan Gattis trade: Mike Foltynewicz. There is plenty of speculation about Foltynewicz's future, but you have to think the Braves are going to extend every opportunity for him to stick in the rotation. That said Foltynewicz would have to not only outpitch the others in the spring, but also develop consistency in all three pitches to win the spot.

Bullpen:

Favorite - Luis Avilan, Next in line - Arodys Vizcaino, Next in line - Michael Kohn, Dark Horse - Donnie Veal, Dark Horse - Ian Thomas, 'Spec - Juan Jaime

The majority of the bullpen competition is going to determined by the decision to carry either 7 or 8 relievers, that said I think the Opening Day roster reflects only 7 relievers. Unfortunately I think Luis Avilan wins the last bullpen spot by default, I think the Braves start Vizcaino in the minor leagues before they call him up. On talent and potential alone I would say Vizcaino is the favorite, but his injury history is long, therefore I think the Braves bring him along slowly. Michael Kohn reminds me a lot of David Carpenter another project for Roger McDowell to work his magic on who I think will very much be considered for a spot in the bullpen. On the periphery are Donnie Veal and Ian Thomas, Veal would operate as another LOOGY and Thomas only gains a spot by dominating everyone and James Russell functioning as the long-man. I include Juan Jaime only because he's RH and throws 100 MPH, if he magically stopped walking the ballpark he certainly has an outside chance at a spot in the bullpen.

While the past offseason has been more active than any I can remember, the pieces are now in place to begin constructing the 2015 Braves roster. Like most of you now, I am perhaps most excited to get a glimpse at some of these top prospects who will get a taste of big league camp. In the meantime there will still exist a few position battles to watch and as a fun reminder: unlike the regular season, spring training games don't really count. Discuss.

*Update: With the recent additions of Matt Capps and Jose Veras on minor league deals, I would be inclined to say that Shae Simmons is moved from a lock to starting the season at AAA and Luis Avilan is no longer the favorite to win the last bullpen spot.

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