FanPost

2015 TC Top 20 Prospects (Results)

Thanks to everyone who created lists for this, and also to those who joined the discussion. I enjoyed this process, and hopefully this will become an annual thing, whether run by me or someone else. I included all prospects ranked on at least 1 list, so this is really a Top 33 list (but the rankings after 20-22 don't mean much, as the bottom 11 were all ranked on 3 lists or less). So let's get to it, here are the results.

Rank Player Points Max Min
1st Jose Peraza 256 1 3
2nd Lucas Sims 247 1 4
3rd Max Fried 238 2 4
4th Tyrell Jenkins 234 2 6
5th Christian Bethancourt 213 4 9
6th Braxton Davidson 202 5 9
7th Ozhaino Albies 182 5 15
8th Manny Banuelos 178 6 15
9th Jason Hursh 170 6 13
10th Kyle Kubitza 170 5 17
11th Jace Peterson 156 7 NR
12th Mauricio Cabrera 149 6 16
13th Garrett Fulenchek 147 9 15
14th Mallex Smith 119 11 22
15th Arodys Vizcaino 118 8 NR
16th Alec Grosser 112 10 22
17th Cody Martin 88 11 NR
18th Dustin Peterson 80 12 NR
19th Victor Reyes 78 17 23
20th Johan Camargo 43 16 NR
21st Wes Parsons 34 13 NR
22nd Max Povse 32 19 NR
23rd Daniel Winkler 26 17 NR
24th Shae Simmons 23 12 NR
25th Carlos Salazar 18 21 NR
26th Kyle Kinman 15 18 NR
27th Tanner Murphy 15 20 NR
28th Josh Elander 11 16 NR
29th Carlos Perez 10 17 NR
30th Chris Diaz 9 18 NR
31st Ian Thomas 6 21 NR
32nd Luis Merejo 5 22 NR
33rd Chad Sobotka 4 23 NR

  • Big shocker at the top spot, Peraza was #1 on 8 of the 10 lists and #3 on the others. Sims/Fried was the 1/2 combo on the lists that didn't have Peraza at the top, both in the top 4 of every list. Jenkins finished off the top tier that stood out above the rest.

  • Bethancourt and Davidson were the only others that ranked in the top 10 of every list, but neither could sneak into anyone's top 3.

  • The next tier included a recent breakout in Ozzie Albies, a recent acquisition in ManBan, and Hursh/Kubitza.

  • The latter 2 tied for the 9th spot in points, but I gave Hursh the edge due to my personal opinions on the 2, as well as consensus rankings by prospectors.

  • Jace Peterson, Cabrera, and recent draftee Fulenchek round out the next tier. Peterson could've battled for the 9th spot if he had made every list, the top ranked player not to do so.

  • Smith, Grosser, and our old friend Vizcaino make up the 5th tier, all of whom had a very wide range of rankings.

  • The 6th tier that rounds out the top 19 (after which there is a clear break) is Martin, Dustin Peterson, and Victor Reyes. The former pair each had a top 12 ranking, missed a list or 2, and finished low in the rest.

  • Meanwhile, Reyes was the lowest finisher to be including on every list, but never ranked above 17.

  • Camargo snuck in at #20, and was followed by 6 pitchers led by Parsons, Povse, and Winkler.

A quick look at this list gives hope for the future that wasn't there for some as recently as October, even though we've waved goodbye to the likes of Chasen Shreve, Aaron Northcraft, J.R. Graham, Kyle Wren. The top 20 includes 7 prospects acquired in trades over the past few months, reviving a farm system that was lacking in several aspects. Those names include Fried, Jenkins, Banuelos, J. Peterson, Smith, Vizcaino, D. Peterson, as well as Rule 5 draftee Winkler came in at 23, Aaron Kurcz who didn't factor in here, big-leaguer Shelby Miller, and international bonus slot money. We gave up a lot of talent to get these guys (Heyward, JUp, Carp, Walden, TLS, as well as the prospects listed above), but didn't give up that much future value beyond next year.

Something else that stood out to me is the parity between hitters and pitchers that occurs in the top 20. If you look at the cutoffs of 2, 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, and 20, half of the prospects are hitters. It is common knowledge that our farm system leans heavily on arms over bats, as evidenced by 11 of the last 13 being pitchers, making that 21 arms to 12 bats that made this list. However, the narrative that pitchers overwhelm the top of our system can only be confirmed if you look at the top 4, which is still led by a position player.

Thanks again to everyone, let me know what you think of the final rankings.
(Braves24 - if you see this, please clarify whether the Perez on your list was indeed Williams and not Carlos).

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