Game Thread 7/11: Reds at Braves

Mike Ehrmann

1. Andrelton Simmons - SS
2. Jason Heyward - RF
3. Justin Upton - LF
4. Freddie Freeman - 1B
5. Brian McCann - C
6. Dan Uggla - 2B
7. B.J. Upton - CF
8. Chris Johnson - 3B
9. Tim Hudson - P

The Reds come in to town having lost 4 of 6, and they are 21-24 on the road. As a point of comparison, the Braves are 23-26 on the road, but their 29-13 record at home is glorious. With a 5-game lead in the division, the Braves have a 90% chance of making the playoffs and an 84% chance of winning the division, according to Baseball Prospectus.

Mat Latos

Latos_medium

Scouting Report: Mat Latos is primarily a fastball-slider pitcher, and he throws hard, averaging 94 mph on his fastball and 85 mph on his slider. The righty will add in a curveball and a change-up against lefties to give a different look, but he won't throw them much against righties. Regardless of the side the hitters hits from, the slider is his kill pitch.

Analysis: Latos seems to be quietly having another dominating season. He's striking out 24% of hitters while walking only 7%, which are pretty close to his career numbers. That gives him an FIP of 2.96 to legitimize his 3.13 ERA. With his sinker, he'll keep the ball on the ground, and he does a pretty good job of avoiding the home run ball as well. The Braves are perceived to hit better against hard-throwers than the rest of the league does, but Latos will be a tough case.

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