Daniel Shirey-US PRESSWIRE
With the acquisitions of Justin and B.J. Upton, do the Atlanta Braves have the best outfield in baseball? And who else could possibly lay stake to that claim?
Ever since Atlanta's acquisition of Justin Upton, the entire baseball world has been abuzz over the Braves' young, athletic outfield. Many national writers have bandied around the idea that a second Upton gives Atlanta the best outfield in the majors. But who else could possibly challenge the Braves for that title? We'll start by looking at 4 other suitors for the title of "Baseball's Best Outfield" followed by various offensive and defensive statistics that can help shed light on who actually has baseball's best outfield going in to the 2013 season.
The Contenders
The Atlanta Braves - By now we're all quite familiar with the Braves' 2013 outfield, and it should be a force this year and for years down the road. With Justin Upton in left, B.J. Upton manning center, and Jason Heyward holding down right for his fourth year in a row, the Braves bring youth (Justin is 25, B.J. is 28, and Heyward is 23), speed, excellent defense, and prodigious power to all three outfield spots. And while B.J.'s ceiling is probably not too much higher than he's already shown, Justin and Jason both have MVP-caliber upside, so the sky's really the limit for the Atlanta trio.
The Los Angeles Angels - The Angels' outfield shows less balance than the Braves', but is anchored by two of baseball's biggest stars. Mike Trout, arguably baseball's most valuable player from 2012 (or easily the MVP, depending on your view of WAR) returns, and the Angels have signed slugger Josh Hamilton to play alongside him. Hamilton obviously represents a significant risk for the Angels with his history of injuries, off-the-field problems, and prolonged slumps, but when healthy he is one of the game's best power hitters (He led all outfielders in home runs last year with 43). Rounding out the Angels' outfield is speedster Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is easily one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, but has been mostly inconsistent with the bat during his 3 year career. Though he probably won't hit a lick, Bourjos's defense will be top-notch - and it will need to be playing next to Hamilton, who is a noted butcher in the field. As of now, the consensus opinion is that Trout will move to left to allow the speedy Bourjos to play center.
The Washington Nationals - Braves fans should be plenty familiar with at least 2/3rds of Washington's outfield this year. Rookie phenom Bryce Harper enters his second year, and will shift from center field to left field (though there's a chance he ends up playing more in right). Newcomer Denard Span, the prize of the Nationals' offseason, will immediately slot in hitting leadoff and playing center field, where he brings an excellent mix of defense and on-base skills. Jayson Werth, who missed half of last season with an injury, will return to play right field. Werth was an on-base machine after returning from his injury, and should be a force wherever he hits in the lineup.
The St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals are no strangers to good hitting, and their outfield for 2013 is no exception. Matt Holliday will man left field again for the Redbirds while hitting in the heart of the order. Though his defense is laughably bad, he boasts excellent offensive prowess with an ability to hit for a high average, get on base at a good clip, and hit for power. In the other corner spot is Carlos Beltran, who put together an MVP half-season before the 2012 All-Star break. Nagging injuries slowed Beltran's second half and may continue to pose problems in the future, but he is still a stellar hitter who, like Holliday, can hit for average as well as power. Rounding out the Cardinals' outfield is center fielder Jon Jay, who will be entering his 3rd full season with the big league club. Jay brings above average defense in center along with the ability to hit for a high average. Jay's defense will be especially key, as he'll have to help compensate for Holliday and Beltran.
The Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers' outfield has an incredibly high ceiling, but it relies on several players regaining the form of season's past. Matt Kemp, after an MVP-caliber season in 2011, suffered through injuries for most of 2012 - a season that saw him miss over 50 games. The Dodgers new left fielder, Carl Crawford, has been through worse. Crawford, after putting up a 7 WAR season in 2010, had two horribly ineffective and injury-prone seasons in Boston before being shipped to Los Angeles at the end of last year. If Crawford can regain any of the success he had while playing in Tampa Bay, the Dodgers' outfield could be a force. Rounding out the outfield in L.A. is Andre Ethier, the Dodgers' right fielder. Ethier has always been a bat first player who will put up above-average offensive numbers but never be extraordinary.
Honorable Mentions - Milwaukee Brewers and Oakland A's. The Brewers and A's both lay claim to excellent big league outfields. For the purpose of this exercise, we limited the discussion to 5 for the sake of brevity, but you can definitely make a case that the Brewers or A's should be included as well.
Our 5 contenders for 2013's best outfield:
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | |
| Braves | Justin Upton | B.J. Upton | Jason Heyward |
| Angels | Mike Trout | Peter Bourjos | Josh Hamilton |
| Nationals | Bryce Harper | Denard Span | Jayson Werth |
| Cardinals | Matt Holliday | Jon Jay | Carlos Beltran |
| Dodgers | Carl Crawford | Matt Kemp | Andre Ethier |
Judging The Contenders: Offense
Now that we've established our contenders, we'll try to quantify them by looking at how they stack up both offensively and defensively. This exercise will primarily focus on the 2012 season to predict the 2013 season, but will make notice of outliers where they exist.
When comparing offenses, it's really hard to pick a place to start, as there are scores of statistics that, when taken together, help to paint a complete picture of a players worth. We'll start with weighted on base average, or wOBA. wOBA takes a weighted value for plate appearance outcomes, with that weight being based on the observed run value for each outcome. The goal of wOBA is to more accurately measure the worth of every possible plate appearance outcome - think of it as a more realistic version of OPS. So let's take a look at last year's wOBA for each of our five outfields.
2012 wOBA By 2013 Team Outfielder
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | |
| Braves | .341 | .323 | .351 |
| Angels | .409 | .272 | .387 |
| Nationals | .352 | .325 | .362 |
| Cardinals | .378 | .341 | .355 |
| Dodgers | .333 | .383 | .350 |
Another excellent offensive metric is wRC+. wRC+ is a statistic that indexes a hitter's offensive value to league average, while adjusting it for park effects (thus attempting to eliminate the statistical advantage one has when playing in a hitter's park). wRC+ is based primarily on the wOBA stat (in that wOBA is the base stat it is adjusting), so our two tables should show some similarities, albeit a bit more normalized. As wRC+ is an indexed statistic, 100 should be considered the league average. Every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. For example, a player with a wRC+ of 125 created 25% more runs than league average.
2012 wRC+ By 2013 Team Outfielder
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | |
| Braves | 108 | 107 | 120 |
| Angels | 166 | 72 | 140 |
| Nationals | 121 | 105 | 128 |
| Cardinals | 141 | 116 | 125 |
| Dodgers | 105 | 146 | 124 |
So, after examining the wOBA and wRC+ of our five outfields, what caveats apply? The first, and most glaring for Braves' fans, is Justin Upton's numbers. Upton was hurt for almost all of last year, opting to try and play through a finger injury (sound familiar?). As such, his numbers took a sharp hit. Assuming Upton comes into camp fully healthy (and there's really no reason to expect he won't), a return to his 2011 numbers (.385 wOBA, 139 wRC+) seems likely; improvement on those 2011 numbers isn't out of the question either.
Moving down the list, Peter Bourjos' awful numbers immediately jump out, but there's some thought that perhaps they were caused by a lack of consistent playing time. He'll never be a great hitter, but there's reason to believe he could post league average numbers (or slightly better) if given a full time chance. Predicting Mike Trout's sophomore season is even more difficult, because we've never seen a player like him before. It wouldn't surprise me if he regressed to somewhere around a 140 wRC+, but then again, he could just as easily hold serve.
The Nationals' numbers seem fairly plausible, and more or less in-line with career averages. The same goes for the Cardinals, but it is worth mentioning that their outfield is easily the oldest of the 5 on this list. I'm not saying it's a given that regression is imminent, but if it happened to the 35 year-old Beltran or the 33-year old Holliday, I wouldn't be surprised.
As for the Dodgers, Carl Crawford is only 2 years removed from a .396 wOBA, 134 wRC+ season, so there's some reason to think he could improve on his dismal 2012 numbers. As good as Matt Kemp's numbers look, they were even better in 2011. It remains to be seen if he'll ever approach those career high numbers again (.413 wOBA, 168 wRC+), but if he does, he could challenge Trout as the best outfielder in baseball.
Based on offense alone, given past production and projection for future growth, this is how I see these 5 outfields stack up:
- Angels
- Cardinals
- Dodgers
- Braves
- Nationals
Judging The Contenders: Defense
2012 DRS By 2013 Team Outfielder
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | |
| Braves | 2 | -4 | 20 |
| Angels | 21 | 9 | -9 |
| Nationals | 14 | 20 | -12 |
| Cardinals | -6 | 2 | 4 |
| Dodgers | 0 | -13 | 3 |
2012 UZR/150 By 2013 Team Outfielder
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | |
| Braves | -2.1 | -3.2 | 20.3 |
| Angels | 11.0 | 39.1 | -15.5 |
| Nationals | 11.1 | 9.6 | -21.2 |
| Cardinals | -4.3 | 5.2 | 0.5 |
| Dodgers | -9.5 | -12.3 | -2.9 |
Based on defense alone, given past production and projection for future growth, this is how I see these 5 outfields stack up:
- Braves
- Angels
- Nationals
- Cardinals
- Dodgers
2012 WAR By 2013 Team Outfielder
| Left Field | Center Field | Right Field | Total | |
| Braves | 2.5 | 3.3 | 6.6 | 12.4 |
| Angels | 10.0 | 1.9 | 4.4 | 16.3 |
| Nationals | 4.9 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 9.8 |
| Cardinals | 5.1 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 12.8 |
| Dodgers | 0.4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 7.3 |
- Los Angeles Angels
- Atlanta Braves
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Washington Nationals
- Los Angeles Dodgers
Poll
Who will have the best outfield in baseball in 2013?
Atlanta Braves (793 votes)
Los Angeles Angels (336 votes)
Washington Nationals (21 votes)
St. Louis Cardinals (4 votes)
Los Angeles Dodgers (23 votes)
Other (9 votes)
1186 total votes


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