FanPost

Do teams record's regress toward the mean year by year?

I was bored and watched an episode of Veritasium on Youtube, and it inspired me find out if the rule of "regression towards the mean" applies towards baseball teams records season to season. Here are my results.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1tSqSMOyNFE

https://www.google.com/#q=regression+toward+the+mean


What this does is compare every team which either won or lost at least 85 games records with their previous season’s record. DOWN means they moved toward the mean of 81-81 (supporting the rule of "regression towards the mean"), UP means they moved away from the mean (against the rule)

Before reading, think what you expect the results to be?

Year/Team # of wins

Next year wins

Year/Team # of losses

Next year losses

00 braves 95

88 DOWN

00 expos 95

94 DOWN

00 mets 94

82 DOWN

00 phils 97

76 DOWN

00 cards 95

93DOWN

00 brewers 89

94 UP

00 reds 85

66 DOWN*

00 astros 90

69 DOWN*

00 giants 97

90 DOWN

00 pirates 93

100 UP

00 dodgers 86

90 UP

00 cubs 97

74 DOWN

00 dbacks 85

92 UP

00 padres 86

83 DOWN

------------------------

------------------------

--------------------------

---------------------------

01 braves 88

101 UP

01 marlins 86

83 DOWN

01phils 86

80 DOWN

01expos 94

79 DOWN

01astros 93

84 DOWN

01 brewers 94

106 UP

01cards 93

97 UP

01 reds 96

84 DOWN

01cubs 88

67 DOWN*

01 pirates 100

89 DOWN

01 dbacks 92

98 UP

01 rockies 89

89 FLAT

01giants 90

95 UP

01 dodgers 86

92 UP

----------------------------

--------------------------

-----------------------------

---------------------------

02 braves 101

101 FLAT

02 mets 86

95 UP

02 cards 97

85 DOWN

02 pirates 89

87 DOWN

02 dbacks 98

84 DOWN

02 cubs 95

74 DOWN

02 giants 95

100 UP

02 brewers 106

94 DOWN

02 dodgers 92

85 DOWN

02 rockies 89

88 DOWN

02 padres 96

98 UP

---------------------------

---------------------------

-------------------------

---------------------------

03 braves 101

96 DOWN

03 mets 95

91 DOWN

03marlins 91

83 DOWN

03 pirates 87

89 UP

03 phils 86

86 FLAT

03 reds 93

86 DOWN

03 cubs 88

89 UP

03 brewers 94

94 FLAT

03 astros 87

92 UP

03 rockies 88

94 UP

03 cardinals 85

105 UP

03 padres 98

75 DOWN

03 giants 100

91 DOWN

03 dodgers 85

93 UP

------------------------

-----------------------------

--------------------------

---------------------------

04 braves 96

90 DOWN

04 mets 91

79 DOWN

04 phils 86

88 UP

04 expos 95

81 DOWN

04cards 105

100 DOWN

04 reds 86

89 UP

04 cubs 89

79 DOWN

04 pirates 89

95 UP

04 astros 92

89 DOWN

04 brewers 94

81 DOWN

04 dodgers 93

71 DOWN

04 rockies 94

95 UP

04 giants 91

75 DOWN

04 dbacks 111

85 DOWN

04 padres 87

82 DOWN

---------------------------

------------------------

----------------------------

---------------------------

05 braves 90

79 DOWN

05 reds 89

82 DOWN

05 phils 88

85 DOWN

05 pirates 89

95 UP

05 cards 100

83 DOWN

05 dbacks 85

86 UP

05 astros 89

82 DOWN

05 giants 87

85 DOWN

05 dodgers 91

74 DOWN

49 DOWN, 25 UPS

4 FLAT

05 rockies 95

86 DOWN

RESULTS:

49 Towards the Mean *(3 of those moved passed the mean, then farther away from the mean than before)

25 Away from the mean

4 Stand pats

NOTES:

Roughly 2/3 of the time teams follow the rule.

Next I will compare 3 teams over the course of 1992 to 2004

The Braves were way above the mean over that span

The Pirates way below

and the Phillies were very average over that span.

Who will support the rule more? Pirates/Braves or Phillies?

BRAVES

(‘92-‘04)

Change from previous year

PIRATES

(‘92-‘04)

Change from previous year

PHILLIES

(‘92-‘04)

Change from previous year

92

98-64

96-66

70-92

93

104-58

AWAY

75-87 (.463)

TOWARDS

97-65

TOWARDS

94

97-65*

TOWARDS

75-87** (.495)

TOWARDS

76-86

TOWARDS

95

101-61*

AWAY

65-97

AWAY

78-84

TOWARDS

96

96-66

TOWARDS

73-89

TOWARDS

67-95

AWAY

97

101-61

AWAY

79-83

TOWARDS

68-94

TOWARDS

98

106-56

AWAY

69-93

AWAY

75-87

TOWARDS

99

103-59

TOWARDS

78-83

TOWARDS

77-85

TOWARDS

00

95-67

TOWARDS

69-93

AWAY

65-97

AWAY

01

88-74

TOWARDS

62-100

AWAY

86-76

TOWARDS

02

102-60*

AWAY

72-89

TOWARDS

80-81

TOWARDS

03

101-61

TOWARDS

75-87

TOWARDS

86-76

TOWARDS

04

96-66

TOWARDS

72-89

AWAY

86-76

FLAT

ELITE

7-5

HORRID

7-5

AVERAGE

9-2-1

*Adjusted to 162 games

**Adjusted to 162 games, considering win percentage.

RESULTS:

23 teams moved toward the mean

12 moved away from the mean

NOTES:

The average team actually followed the rule more so than the extreme teams.

Again, 2/3 of the time teams follow the rule

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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