FanPost

Grienke anyone?

My favorite time of year next to the draft: Trade valuation and speculation time.

The Brewers will have a very clear picture of their playoff chances this week after a series in Cincinnati, and whether or not they are going to be buyers or sellers. If they are sellers, which they should probably be even if they were able to take 2 of 3 from the Reds, the biggest trading chip of the year will come out of Milwaukee in Zack Grienke.

Grienke is putting up another Cy Young type of season, and has so far compiled 3.6 WAR in half of a season with a 2.55 xFIP, 8-2 record along with 4.71 k/w ratio to go along with a 9.28 k/9. Is the Braves front office salivating over those numbers? Half of which come in hitter friendly Miller Park?

If so, would it be out of the question for Doug Melvin to ask for Andrelton Simmons AND Julio Teheran in exchange?

Grienke's surplus value is approximately 3.8*5-$6.5 million= $12.5 million. This number is supposed to reflect a "true" value for Greinke, but a premium is most likely placed on a trade like this involving a former Cy Young award winner, and guy who is having a tremendous walk year. The calculation (using Sky Kalkman's Trade Value Calculator, formerly of Beyond the Box Score) used to include value for the draft picks received when the player walked following the end of their contract, but with the new CBA, only the Brewers can receive draft pick compensation for Greinke next year, and only if he remains on the team all year. So there is a cost of approximately $5 million to the Brewers if they trade Greinke away and miss out on the draft picks.

Round up to $18 million surplus value for a half year of Zack Greinke. Is that too rich for the Braves? Teheran's stock has fallen this year, while Simmons' has risen. And if there is still top of the rotation, future all star ace potential still in Teheran, then he and Simmons are definitely too rich. But how about Simmons and Delgado or Minor or Vizcaino? There is even a chance that they do like the Phillies did when they signed Halladay after a trade to a long term deal, thus cementing any premium paid for Greinke.

Would Braves fans be ok with a nice package of prospects going to Milwaukee for a half year of Zack Grienke and a very nice playoff run perhaps, and long term extension?

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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