FanPost

Premature Rosterbation - Looking ahead to 2013

So, I am a realist, as in I like to get deep into research and present scenarios that are realistic and possible. In viewing the trading deadline and what could transpire, I was very interested in what exactly 2013 could look like for the Braves, and needless to say, I was surprised. I went through a lot of research as to similar players getting into arbitration and free agency to find these numbers for projected 2013 salaries. I can understand some gap where I'm projecting to where they will end up, but this is based on what has happened in baseball in the last 10-15 years with similar players.

After this season there will be no more Chipper, we all know that, and there are a number of other guys whose salaries are likely off the books as well. We'll start there after the jump.

(Warning: this will get long!)

2012 salaries of those likely gone via free agency/retirement:
Chipper $14M
Matt Diaz $2.1M
Eric Hinske $1.6M
Jack Wilson $1M
Chad Durbin $900K
Livan Hernandez $750K

2012 salaries of those eligible for arbitration, and likely arbitration numbers
Jair Jurrjens $5.5M - $5M
Martin Prado $4.75M - $6.25M
Eric O'Flaherty $2.49M - $3.5M
Jason Heyward $565K - $4M
Tommy Hanson $535K - $4.5M
Jonny Venters $533K - $1.75M
Cristhian Martinez $491K - $700K
Kris Medlen $490K - $700K

2013 Free Agents with assumed price tags
Michael Bourn $10-15M
David Ross $1.75M

2013 salaries, including options to be picked up and likely pay raises to pre-arbitration players
Dan Uggla $13.2M
Brian McCann $12M
Tim Hudson $9M
Craig Kimbrel $700K
Freddie Freeman $750K
Brandon Beachy $750K
Peter Moylan $700K
Mike Minor $550K
Randall Delgado $550K
Juan Francisco $525K
Tyler Pastornicky $500K
Andrelton Simmons $485K
Cory Gearrin $485K
Additional pitcher (Arodys Vizcaino/Julio Teheran/Sean Gilmartin/Todd Redmond/etc.) $485K
Bench outfielder (Felix Pie/Jose Constanza/Luis Durango/etc.) $485K

Keeping Ross to me is a no brainer, but EOF and Jurrjens both look too expensive to me, and that figure for Jurrjens is even a salary decrease from 2012, which is unlikely to happen in arbitration if Jurrjens can come up and do virtually anything in 2012. If you remove EOF, the additional pitcher I mentioned above is actually 2 needed, but if you keep him, you don't need both. Without EOF, and with everyone else mentioned above, including two of our young pitchers taking places, the salary figure is $61.3M and the openings left to fill on the team are 3B/LF (depending on where Prado plays) and CF.

Assuming the Braves have ~$85-90M to spend in 2013 on current payroll, we should not be out of possibility for any free agent, but here's the scenarios I see for the offseason and how this could affect trades in the offseason:

Scenario 1:
Resign Bourn and pursue a LF bat along the lines of Carlos Quentin or Torii Hunter for 2 years and solid money to keep money free for after 2014 when a number of the young players will be in arbitration/free agency.

Scenario 2:
Resign Bourn and pursue a more long term LF bat like Andre Ethier or Nick Swisher

Scenario 3:
Pursue two cheaper CF/LF options along the lines of Torii Hunter/Angel Pagan/Shane Victorino to play solid defense/provide good, but not great production and use the money to start extending young players.

Scenario 4 (off the wall idea):
Sign David Wright, sign Michael Bourn, keep Martin Prado in left, trade Hanson or decline Hudson's option to afford both signings. The team would benefit greatly offensively, but that's a lot of trust in young starters at that point.

There are many other scenarios, and I welcome your scenarios or your comments on the ones I posted

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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