FanShot

Fangraphs releases sabermetric constants...

2

This is probably only interesting for the stat geeks, but some great information is there if you know how to use it. For instance, what percentage would you have to steal at in order to provide positive value. If you said ~75%, you're living in the wrong run environment (and, to be honest, that's always been a ballpark figure...I can't find a run environment that required that level of success). In the decreased run environment of recent years, stolen bases have become more valuable. So far this season, you'd only have to be safe in 65.95% of SB attempts to provide positive offensive value. How did I find this?? It's simple. A steal is worth +.255 and a CS is worth -.494. Let's say you want to break even. So you have +.255x (SB) -.494y (CS) = 0. Move the CS over to the other side (+0.494 * CS). Then set the CS at one, or .494 for that side of the equation. Then divide by the SB coefficent to see that one CS event negates 1.93725 SB events. So, in order to be positive value, you'd have to steal at better than a 65.95% rate. In 1968, you only had to steal at a 62.2% rate in order to be effective. To contrast, in 2000 you had to steal at better than a 69.66% clip to be effective. In 1887, it was 71.77% of the time to be successful. Fun with numbers!!

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