Kevin Goldstein Of Baseball Prospectus Releases His 2012 Top-20 Braves Prospects
by gondeee on Feb 7, 2012 8:51 AM EST
in Braves Prospect Reviews
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Here it is, more prospect goodness from Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:
1. Julio Teheran, RHP
2. Randall Delgado, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Christian Bethancourt, C
5. Andrelton Simmons, SS
6. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
7. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
8. Edward Salcedo, 3B
9. Matt Lipka, OF
10. Zeke Spruill, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. J.R. Graham, RHPNine More:
12. Nick Ahmed, SS
13. J.J. Hoover, RHP
14. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B/3B
15. Kyle Kubitza, 3B
16. Brandon Drury, 3B
17. Carlos Perez, LHP
18. Adam Milligan, OF
19. Todd Cunningham, OF
20. Billy Bullock, RHP
No real surprises here. Like Mayo did yesterday, Goldstein lists Nick Ahmed really high, which in my opinion is a huge over-ranking of him. Mycal Jones is absent from this list, though Cunningham is present. I'd list Jones ahead of Cunningham, though Goldstein does list Jones as his "sleeper" later on in the article.
On of the things that he does in his organizational reviews is to list the top young talents in the organization, not just prospects. Here is that list:
Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/86 or later)
1. Tommy Hanson, RHP
2. Jason Heyward, OF
3. Craig Kimbrel, RHP
4. Julio Teheran, RHP
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B
6. Brandon Beachy, RHP
7. Mike Minor, LHP
8. Randall Delgado, RHP
9. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
10. Christian Bethancourt, C
Just look at that list of players; the top-9 are ready to contribute, or already are contributing, right now. Included in that top-9 is an entire starting rotation, plus a dominant closer and setup man. That's just sick (in a really awesome way). An entire starting rotation 25 years old or younger ... WOW!
Good stuff as always by Kevin Goldstein, and I encourage you to read the full article and prospect reviews here. Most of it is subscription only, but there's no time like the present to get a Baseball Prospectus subscription.
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I like this list better than Mayo's...
I don’t see the need to drop Salcedo and Lipka out of the top 10 because of 1 bad year in Low A ball from 19 year olds.
J.R. “Moonlight” Graham (couldn’t help myself) I suspect would be 3-star or above with a third pitch? I’ve heard he may be a fast-riser in the organization as a RP but what do the Braves have planned for him? I imagine he’s going to start higher than Rookie ball this season?
"If you're looking around...then we're looking around" - Coach Paul Johnson
Even younger...
I wonder if we have the youngest team in baseball. While we certainly have one of the oldest players at the hot corner, we’ve also got 5 other key guys (including 3 everyday starters) in their 20s:
Venters (26 by time season starts)
EOF (26)
McCann (27)
Prado (28)
Bourn (29)
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team so loaded with young talent.
the biggest downside with the young stars
is that when they hit the free agent market, their then relative youth still will mean that it takes even more money than usual to retain them
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 7, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
somewhat surprised
to see Hanson at the top with his injury history. Heyward’s star really has dimmed to fall to second on that list.
He doesn’t really have an injury history, last season was his first major injury.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Feb 7, 2012 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
you're right
I should have said injury concerns. That hitch in his delivery has always concerned me and im sure im not the only one who is worried that it will result in further issues. Hope he has a healthy 200+ IP season to alleviate them, but not banking on it.
pitching motions dont have a direct correlation on injuries. Mark Prior has the best motion in the game and he was injured on and off for years.
@asisson10
by andrew.sisson on Feb 7, 2012 11:23 PM EST up reply actions
Mark Prior had the best motion according to Tom House...
The guy who started working with Prior his sophomore year in high school. Prior had “great” mechanics in the sense that he seemed to throw the ball effortlessly and could repeat his motion every time. They’re actually a case study in what not to do in terms of throwing with your entire body. His shoulder played far too large a role in creating his velocity.
it wasn’t a “major” injury last season, since it didn’t even involve surgery. And as for the “concerns” about the possibility he may have chronic shoulder maladies, these seem to be really nothing other than idle speculation and hang-wringing by fans.
The fact of the matter is that all pitchers – particularly starting pitchers – are at risk of shoulder and elbow problems because what they do places extraordinary stresses and strains on the human arm.
Is Tommy Hanson really more any greater risk than any other starting pitcher in professional baseball? I am completely unconvinced.
This
All of the comment section pitching coaches be damned, one injury does not make a pitcher injury prone. He could blow out his elbow, shoulder, even knee in the early parts of the season, but that does not mean it’s due to the abnormal delivery. There have been plenty of conventional deliveries that have led to worse injuries than Hanson’s, and there really is no reason for most to assume that injuries will continue.
Top prospects under 25
Looking at that list you have to feel good about the future
You have an entire rotation
1. Hanson
2. Beachy
3. Minor
4. Teheran
5. Delgado
Closer-Kimbrel
Setup- Vizcaino
Catcher-Bethancourt
Plus your #3 & #4 hitters for the Future in Heyward & Freeman.
The future looks really bright
by mauck98 on Feb 7, 2012 1:18 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
the future looks bright
but hanson will hit FA way before thos guys and im still not completely sold on bethancourt. everyone else will produce at the ML level so yes the future does look bright. we really need bethancourt to start being a stud right now as mccann gets older/more expensive. his weight is also a concern for his longevity.
Considering the way the team is treating him, he is going to be spending a lot more time in the Minors, as he should be. He is 20 years old, has been in the organization for four almost five years now and is still in Lynchburg. They are going to give him all the time he could possibly need to develop and so that they can find out where he fits in in the team’s future.
You shouldn’t sip liquor.
-justincredubil02
no, Jack Daniel is whiskey.
-ChopMaster
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while."
Decent list, but I disagree with quite a bit.
Matt Lipka at No. 9 is insane. Most don’t even have him in the top-20.
Gilmartin is too low. He’s at least No. 5 if not higher.
There’s not a chance Heyward isn’t the No. 1 guy in our system. That’s just silly.
I’d have Terdoslavich higher.
I’d have Salcedo much higher.
excellent point about Heyward being slotted behind Hanson on the top talent under 25 list.
and I’m thinking Kimbrel at 3, ahead of Teheran and Freeman, is equally silly.
Yeah, not too crazy about that list. Kimbrel has a ton of value seeing as he’s the best reliever in baseball at the age of 23 or so, but I’d undoubtably take Teheran over him, probably Freeman as well.
by Scott Coleman on Feb 7, 2012 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with this. I mean we all have seen how rocky the career of a closer can get after a year or two of success. About as much turnover at that position as there is at running back in the NFL.
You shouldn’t sip liquor.
-justincredubil02
no, Jack Daniel is whiskey.
-ChopMaster
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while."
There were some that had Hanson was ranked ahead of Heyward when they were both prospects. I don’t think it is that absurd for one to rank Hanson ahead of Heyward. Goldstein had Heyward slightly ahead of Hanson, but the two are certainly comparable.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2009/267698.html
I just worry about Hanson’s delivery and that he’s had serious shoulder problems in the last 12 months. Not that Heyward never gets injured himself, but they seem to be more wear-and-tear than anything.
by Scott Coleman on Feb 7, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
The active deceleration of the pitching arm after release combined with how he recoils it
Is what really scares me. I have no idea why the Braves never changed it as it shouldn’t have an effect on the pitches themselves, just the fielding position he’s in after the pitch. If it doesn’t change he seems destined for more serious shoulder issues, I just hope they come after he leaves town.
I don’t like jumping to these conclusions. He has had this delivery and not had any arm problems before now. Does it look different? Yes. So do many starter’s motions. Lots also look completely standard and they end up with elbow problems or shoulder problems. We aren’t calling Medlen injury prone, and he just had Tommy John surgery.
Its not really jumping to a conclusion
It was actually a prediction made (by someone else, not me) before Hanson had even debuted in the majors. Its just completely unnecessary stress that he is subjecting his shoulder to every single time he throws a pitch. Perhaps he get injured either way, but it certainly isn’t helping things for him, and unlike the “hitch” he has at foot plant it’s something that is completely correctable without actually altering the mechanics that have made him successful.
You are 100% jumping to the conclusion that his shoulder injury last year was due to his delivery. There is no possible way you can say that with any level certainty. By definition, you linking his delivery with the one injury he has had since becoming a major league pitcher is jumping to a conclusion.
Someone else can predict all they want. He was injured, the Braves misdiagnosed it, and he was forced to be shut down. You want to blame the delivery, go ahead, but it doesn’t make it any more true than someone saying Hudson’s back problems were from sleeping too much. It’s a completely baseless statement with no sort of backup behind it aside from pure speculation.
I never understand why people take this position
Since we can’t predict something with 100% certainty we should completely ignore it? You realize this is the direction MLB teams are moving, right? High speed video is slowly taking hold in baseball just like sabremetrics was a decade ago. Its in its infancy, people are still trying to figure things out, and we’re still talking about educated guesses, but how else is progress going to be made?
Just look where golf was 10 years ago compared to where it is today. The advances in understanding the golf swing and how to most efficiently generate power are outstanding. What they can do with 3D motion capture is amazing. It just hasn’t really made its way into baseball yet because the baseball market is smaller than the tennis or golf markets. As time progresses, the base of knowledge on pitching mechanics will continue to grow.
Just so we’re clear, at no point have I said it’s 100% certain that the problems I described caused Hanson’s shoulder injury. I described the worries I had Hanson’s mechanics. I’m honestly not sure why brought up jumping to conclusions in the first place.
“If it doesn’t change he seems destined for more serious shoulder issues, I just hope they come after he leaves town.”
The rest of your response was incoherent, as it had nothing to do with anything that anyone is talking about.
I expect him to have further shoulder issues
That doesn’t mean I think its a foregone conclusion.
I was responding to this:
You want to blame the delivery, go ahead, but it doesn’t make it any more true than someone saying Hudson’s back problems were from sleeping too much. It’s a completely baseless statement with no sort of backup behind it aside from pure speculation.I don’t understand the point of view that making statements about pitching mechanics is baseless. The study of pitching and hitting mechanics is in its infancy, but this is a direction major league clubs are going to shift in their search for the next big market inefficiency.
I’m in 100% agreement with you on this one, as stated above.
Today, on 680 the Fan (AM sports radio station in Atlanta), Wren said it really wasn’t even his shoulder, it was an “imbalance” in the scapula area of his upper back and has been corrected with exercises to strengthen the muscles there.
That's still a sign that the joint is being overly stressed
And as far as I can tell, that’s also the same muscle group that would be decelerating the arm as I described. Like I said, its not 100% certain or anything, but its definitely something to be worried about. If something is going to happen, hopefully it just won’t happen until the Yanks give him a huge deal in a couple years.
"I have no idea why the Braves never changed it as it shouldn’t have an effect on the pitches themselves, just the fielding position he’s in after the pitch."
May not have a direct effect on the movement and location of his pitches, but that hitch makes him pretty deceptive, especially with free-swinging hitters.
by Undocorkscrew on Feb 8, 2012 3:30 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn't talking about the hitch
Like I said in the subject line and first sentence, “The active deceleration of the pitching arm after release combined with how he recoils it is what really scares me.” That’s the part I think the Braves would have been smart to change.
Yeah, athleticism and lack of competition make him a top-15 guy. He’s got the tools to be a tremendous defensive outfielder too. That’s also why I like Cunningham more than most.
Salcedo much higher?
I mean he’s already #8 and everyone ranked above him has a good case to be ahead of him. Most of the lists this offseason seem to rank him similarly.
I’m a big believer in Salcedo. Really think he’s going to breakout in 2012. Not saying Goldstein is wrong, just that I have him higher.
by Scott Coleman on Feb 7, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
It's certainly possible
But I don’t see any reason to expect it based on his mediocre performance and the fact that scouts seem to clearly be souring on him.
What do you mean “most don’t even have him in the top 20”?
After doing some research I see that’s inaccurate.Here’s how some others have ranked Lipka-
Sickels -#12
MLB.com #14
Baseball Prospectus #9
Baseball America #13
Talking Chop #14
Capital Avenue Club #14
Top Prospect Alert #13
Bull Pen Banter #11
MLB Dirt #12
Baseball Prospect Nation #9
by Romebravesfan56 on Feb 7, 2012 7:26 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I stand corrected. Still think it’s too high for him.
by Scott Coleman on Feb 8, 2012 12:51 AM EST up reply actions
Tommy La Stella
He constantly gets overlooked but his bat is legit and if he can’t stick at 2B(which I think he can) pit him in LF and he’ll be just fine. I really like this guy, he should start in High A this season and could finish in AA.
Not really
His bat is legit, he has enough pop and athleticism to play the OF.
Comparison Chart 2008-2012 Prospects Lists (from baseball prospectus)
I know it’s impossible to read, so here is a Link to the full size chart. I dunno how this compares with other organizations, but it would seem that being in the “top ten” is a pretty decent indicator of future success. Hopefully is close enough to being accurate to be useful.
I listed Pastornicky as a ‘Cup of Coffee’ guy since he’s the SS heir apparent… though hasn’t actually played in a major league game yet.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
by carpengui on Feb 7, 2012 5:16 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
Cody Johnson...
what’s that kid up to these days? Geez…what a waste of a pick. Just had one of those feelings when we drafted him and all the buzz we heard about him was his light-tower power but that he was raw…very raw…
Thanks for the graph
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
I expect Cody is probably about done
(and therefore I should have used the Brown highlighter for him).
Cody spent 2011 in the Yankees organization: in High A+ ball, he hit .326 for 39 games (6HR, 10 2B). I guess that got him promoted to AA…. where he tanked, just like he did at Mississippi for the Braves in 2010. ..26 BA with 15 homers, 16 2B in 74 games.
He’ll be 24 this year… never made it beyond AA, never hit above .226 in AA.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
My feelings..
Five-Star Prospects
1. Julio Teheran, RHP
2. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
3. Randall Delgado, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Christian Bethancourt, C
5. Sean Gilmartin, LHP
6. Andrelton Simmons, SS
Three-Star Prospects
7. Edward Salcedo, 3B
8. Joe Terdoslavich, 1B/3B
9. Tyler Pastornicky, SS
10. Adam Milligan, OF
Two-Star Prospects
11. Matt Lipka, OF
12. J.J. Hoover, RHP
13. Brandon Drury, 3B
14. Zeke Spruill, RHP
15. Kyle Kubitza, 3B
16. J.R. Graham, RHP
17. Carlos Perez, LHP
18. Nick Ahmed, SS
19. Mycal Jones, CF
20. Tommy La Stella, 2B
McCann facial hair=Epic
by heyward4prez on Feb 8, 2012 12:52 AM EST via mobile reply actions
is adam milligan
every gonna figure it out? would like to see simmons break out also
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