MLB's Jonathan Mayo Releases His 2012 Top-20 Braves Prospects
by gondeee on Feb 6, 2012 8:31 PM EST
in Braves Prospect Reviews
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It's going to get fast and furious with prospects this week. Today we got an Atlanta Braves prospect list from MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, then tomorrow we get the Baseball Prospectus list from Kevin Goldstein. Finally on Friday, ESPN's Keith Law releases his top-10 for each organization.
Here is Mayo's top-20 list:
- Julio Teheran, RHP
- Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
- Randall Delgado, RHP
- Andrelton Simmons, SS
- Christian Bethancourt, C
- Sean Gilmartin, LHP
- Tyler Pastornicky, SS
- Joe Terdoslavich, 1B/3B
- Zeke Spruill, RHP
- J.R. Graham, RHP
- Edward Salcedo, 3B
- Nick Ahmed, SS
- J.J. Hoover, RHP
- Matt Lipka, CF
- Brandon Drury, 3B
- Carlos Perez, LHP
- Todd Cunningham, OF
- Mycal Jones, CF
- Navery Moore, RHP
- Billy Bullock, RHP
It's a decent list. I like the inclusion of Moore and Bullock at the end, even though relievers usually don't make the cut on top prospect lists. Though I find it strange that neither Kubitza nor LaStella make the list while Ahmed is listed pretty high. Ahmed at 12 is the biggest over-rank on this list, in my opinion.
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Salcedo and Lipka...
considering this is a prospect list and they’re 19-20 and in Low A-ball…dropping them below much older guys who are only 1-2 levels above them is interesting.
"If you're looking around...then we're looking around" - Coach Paul Johnson
With Lipka's performance it shouldn't be surprising
With Salcedo, I think the luster is starting to wear off from the perspective of scouts. I just don’t think the tools that made him so exciting a couple years ago are all that apparent anymore.
Apparently, Ahmed is viewed (at least by Mayo) as having a good deal more upside than some others have discerned.
I didn’t realize that Salcedo and Lipka has slipped that much in terms of their prospect status. They are still young enough to turn things around. I wonder if Simmons has rose to the untradable level for the Braves.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 6, 2012 10:26 PM EST reply actions
Simmons > Pastornicky
??
"Tripped, stumbled, deer meat went everywhere. Then he went on the DL."
That's how every site except this one has seemingly ranked them this offseason
Since people seem to think I’m trolling on the subject now, I’ll say the scouting reports on Simmons are significantly stronger and leave it at that.
they are
but nixa, will Simmons hit slug more than .300? if so, then he’s a player. If not, he’s Rafael Belliard.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 6, 2012 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
We got prospects....
for days! I love the minor league system. Too bad we can’t produce contendors and prospects like we did back in the 90s.
???
We haven’t really seen what this current group of prospects can do. Freeman, Kimbrel, Venters, Hanson, Beachy, and Heyward seemed to have worked out so far, and now it’s time to see what Pastornicky, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Simmons, and Bethancourt can do….
Oh, forgot about Minor.
by Undocorkscrew on Feb 6, 2012 11:46 PM EST up reply actions
There has been a lull...
You can’t say we are the same franchise compared to the 90’s and early 2000s…right now we are noncontendors producing prospects.
So now most rankings have Vizcaino ahead of Delgado...
….and I’m not sure why. Sure, his stuff is more dynamic but he’s had injury issues and is missing a ligament in his elbow, while being projected as a late-inning reliever. And I know it’s a SSS, but Delgado had a MUCH more successful stint in the bigs. I’m not complaining, just figured Delgado would be higher on most lists rather than the other way around…
Anyway, can someone explain why baseball-reference is telling me that Vizcaino completed 194 innings and Delgado completed 278 in the minors last year?
Viz has better stuff, so if he can get through his injury issues he can be better than they think Delgado can be. That’s the way these rankings tend to work.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
"That’s the way these rankings tend to work."
That sounds vaguely condescending……..
Kidding, I get that though. Some list in order of potential, some list in terms of how close they are. Guess I just wanted to say that I’d put Delgado ahead of Vizcaino, all things considered. Just got carried away….
by Undocorkscrew on Feb 7, 2012 11:43 PM EST up reply actions
Position Players
What fraction of these listed position player prospects actually projects to be MLB quality players? I mean, not best case scenario for these guys, but most realistic outcome. Except for possibly Simmons, none of these guys really looks like impact MLB players.
Am I missing something?
What do you mean by “impact MLB player”? There is something to be said if all those guys make it to the big league.
Bethancourt was very impressive in Arizona Fall League. Sure he is still quite young but I think his floor would be at least as a 2nd C (Bryan Pena at worse).
Terdo was also hitting Arizona Fall League very well. He should at least be a part time player.
Pasteronicky is not projected to be a star but the Braves is making him the starting SS.
You are not going to get a Heyward or Freeman every year.
by LEastCoastBears on Feb 7, 2012 12:10 AM EST up reply actions
Full time starters
I guess by impact, I mean full time starters.
I’ve mentioned this before, but if the goal is to stock the team primarily with home-grown talent, and if you assume that you’ve got a player for an average of 6 years, with 12 position players……then you’ve got to graduate 2 position players per year from the minors to the bigs just to keep up. Obviously, they don’t all have to be starters, or future all-stars. When the season starts only Freeman, Heyward, Pastornicky, and Prado will be homegrown players with less than 6 years service time. That’s only a third of the position players.
Wren has obviously figured out the pitching pipeline. He’s got a great some great blue chip prospects, and a good mix of starters and relievers. There are exciting prospects at all levels of the system.
But there seems to be a system-wide blind spot when it come to the position players.
The system didn’t produce a competent outfielder between Frenchy and Heyward, and there’s no one close now. There isn’t even a outfield “prospect” who could reasonably be called up if somebody gets hurt. The Braves have had one of the worst outfields in all of baseball for half a decade, and yet there’s no help in sight. Nothing. the punchile here is that the Braves will have to figure out how to acquire yet another CF from outside the organization before 2013. Real funny , huh?
How long has it been since we had a full-time homegrown left fielder, who was actually an outfielder? Ron Gant?
How many of our projected bench players are homegrown? ZERO
Whenever Wren acquires prospects in a trade they are always primarily pitchers, and he has shown absolutely zero inclination to trade pitching for hitting.
Well, Wren did send a package of pitchers to Houston for Bourn
Which was kind of a steal, but I’m glad he’s held on to the elite pitching prospects. A mid-season move for an impact bat wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
“But there seems to be a system-wide blind spot when it come to the position players.”
True, but this will be the 3rd straight year they had a starting job to a position player age 22 or under.
Funny thing is about the outfield, I can actually see it being one of the best in the league this season. I think it’s realistic to expect Prado and Heyward to bounce back. Not expecting All-Star level performance from Prado considering he’ll primarily be in LF, but I am expecting relatively big things from Heyward.
“How many of our projected bench players are homegrown? ZERO”
Constanza, does he count?
All in all, they’ll have home grown players at C, 1B, SS, 3B, LF, and RF this season. I know Mac and Chip aren’t recent, but not many teams have the players they developed at that many positions, not to mention the plethora of home-grown arms they have as pen/rotation options.
Hopefully these young arms break out and they start drafting position players higher.
One more thing, I’m not as pessimistic about Bourn returning as seemingly everyone else is. The Braves should have a decent chunk of money coming off the books after the season and the CF market could be pretty deep(Victorino, Hamilton, Upton, Pagan) and players with skill-sets like Bourn’s are undervalued often.
by Undocorkscrew on Feb 7, 2012 1:46 AM EST up reply actions
bethancourt
I know im higher on him than most, but if he doesn’t get hurt, he should be a major league player, his tools are ridiculous, as he’s a plus fielder with a plus-plus arm, has plus speed and could have plus power and contact abilities for his position, this is best case scenario, but I truly believe that his bat could be great
Mike Scott was what Willis was talking about.
by JHey1212 on Feb 7, 2012 3:05 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Inability to develope outfielders continually frustrates me.
Its a known problem, that the team just can’t seem to fix. Meanwhile we’ve got like 10 starting pitchers.
I guess we should all the thankful that the system was able to churn out Heyward and Freeman or we would be in real trouble.
Bourn’s only real asset is his speed. He’s not a high average guy. His career OBP is only .339. He has no power. But, he steals bases and plays great defense. that has value. There’s no doubt about that. But, speed guys don’t age well. Look how far Chone Figgins has fallen. Or how bad Carl Crawford’s contract looks after just one year. He’ll be 30 this year. Any contract longer than 3 years would be a mistake.
Constanza was originally signed by the Indians way back in 2003. He was signed a year by the Braves as a minor league free agent. He’s about as homegrown as Drew Sutton and Luis Durango.
Were you trying to reply to someone here?
Listing Bourn’s career OBP isn’t all that fair when considering an extension. Over his last 3 years it’s at .348, AVG at .283. For comparison, Reyes’s OBP over that same span is .352 and that’s with his career season last year. And Bourn’s likely to never win a batting title, but he did hit .294 last season…..that’s not too shabby and can be considered ‘high.’
If Bourn has a season like he did last year, I don’t see him getting less than 4 years. With no real internal options, he’s likely to be cheaper than Victorino, Hamilton, and Upton.
by Undocorkscrew on Feb 7, 2012 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
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