Most Braves Fans Think The 2012 Braves Will Win More Than 89 Games
by gondeee on Feb 1, 2012 2:54 PM EST
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PrintLast year the Atlanta Braves won 89 games and lost 73. As we all know by now, they fell just short of the playoffs, and didn't have enough left in the tank to win just one of their last five games. But Braves fans are still optimistic about this team in 2012 -- a team that barely changed a single face from last year's team.
In last Friday's poll, conducted on this very website (results below), when asked how many games they thought the Braves would win in 2012, 61% of Atlanta fans chose an answer above 89 games. Forty-five percent of respondents think the Braves will win between 94 and 90 games, with the remaining 16% even more optimistic.
The second most frequently chosen wins total was between 89 and 85 games; 28% of voters chose to believe the Braves win total will fall somewhere in there. Only 8% believe this 2012 team will win fewer than 85 games. (I therefore assume that 8% of the readership of this site is composed of Mets and Phillies fans.)
The overall judgement of Braves fans voting in the poll seems to have been that the 2012 Braves team will be better than the 2011 team, even though the only moves the team made were to subtract their starting shortstop and opening day starting pitcher.
Optimism is in the air ... it must not be long until spring training.
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Lowest Number...
What do yall think the lowest number of wins we could have to when the NL east?
I would have to say 95
Subtracting a win
1. I’m less optimistic about Chipper’s 2012
2. I’m less optimistic about O’Flaherty’s 2012
3. I’m less optimistic about Kimbrel’s 2012
4. I’m less optimistic about Jurrjens’ 2012
5. I’m less optimistic about Hudson’s 2012
6. I’m less optimistic that the Marlins will be as bad as they were last year
7. I’m less optimistic that the Nationals havent improved
Subtracting a 1/2 win
1. I’m slightly less optimistic about Pastornicky/Wilson’s 2012
Total: -7 1/2 wins
Adding a 1/2 win
1. I’m slightly more optimistic about Freeman’s 2012
2. I’m slightly more optimistic about our bench
3. I’m slightly more optimistic about our overall bullpen
Adding a win
1. I’m more optimistic about Prado’s 2012
2. I’m more optimistic about Heyward’s 2012
3. I’m more optimistic about McCann’s 2012
4. I’m more optimistic about Uggla’s 2012
5. I’m more optimistic about Hanson’s 2012
6. I’m more optimistic about whatever replacements we have for Proctor and Linebrink in 2012
7. I’m more optimistic about whatever replacement we have for Lowe.
8. I’m more optimistic that the Phillies will not be as dominant
9. I’m more optimistic that the Mets suck harder than they did last year
Total: +10 1/2 wins
Overall- +3 wins on the year- Prediction: 92-70
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
by ryan c on Feb 1, 2012 3:19 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Nice
I think 88-92 is most realistic
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Feb 1, 2012 3:28 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’m thinking there are lots and lots of good reasons to be optimistic.
A big one that you missed is Bourn will be here for the full season.
The bullpen should be improved overall to the point of very possibly being the very best in MLB.
The young gun starters, Beachy, Minor, Teheran and Delgado, are an unbelievable asset and should pay big dividends over the 2012 season, making Wren look like a genius for refusing to deal any of them away.
Vizcaino is kinda of like a secret weapon and should likewise make a major contribution over the course of the season.
Given my agreement with all your +optimism points, if Heyward bounces back, as I expect, 95- 100 wins should be within reach.
My best guess/prediction (trying not to go overboard): 94-68.
by fandave on Feb 1, 2012 3:38 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
clarification: Heyward is a world class talent and by bounce back, I mean 2010-level rakeage or better. If that happens and he’s healthy to start 150 or more games, our chances of truly rolling will soar.
If Heyward could hit like a beast, it would be...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTQvnhNVgxQ
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
I will let Larry Wayne respond:
per DOB tweet 10 minutes ago:
Chipper on Braves RF J. Heyward’s hitting sessions: "The ball is jumping off the bat now close to what it was in spring training 2010. "
I believe more than 89.
However, that’s based on the fact I’m counting on Uggla warming up before June.
~ "Life is hard, God is good and heaven is real."
uggla will defiantly warm up before June… I see him hitting .315-.320 this year
by Saxby Phillips on Feb 1, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
.315
Really? I love Uggla as much as the next guy but .315? I guess it could happen, i’d jump up and cheer super loud if he did
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Feb 1, 2012 4:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Man, him hitting .315-.320 would be “defiant”…defiant of his actual abilities.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
The impossible can become possible
I mean, who woulda thought Air Bud would have so many sequels?
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Feb 1, 2012 4:49 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
He doesn't even have to WARM up...
how about he just SHOW up at all before June.
They got a name for the winners in the world...they call Alabama the Crimson Tide!
and that is a bad thing?
Seriously, though, given that the Braves have averaged 90 wins over the past 2 seasons, why is it that you (apparently) believe the Braves will not win more than 89 games in 2012?
Well there are a lot of “ifs” associated with the Braves winning 90 games. And a lot of key Braves with chronic injuries. With some good luck, they could win 90. But if they have bad luck, it could be very, very ugly. If I were betting the over/under, I would definitely take under 90 wins. My hopes are that the Braves prove me wrong.
- ChillyMutt
Y’know, if you turn the graph sideways and squint a little, the shape of that bar-graph kind of looks like a big middle finger in the faces of the nay-sayers who ignore logic and choose defeatism because its easier to wallow than to hope.
by swainzy on Feb 1, 2012 5:34 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Get out of here with your logic and facts.
by Ivan the Great on Feb 1, 2012 11:28 PM EST up reply actions
If we have injuries, I don’t believe our bench is as prepared to absorb a loss of a starter for an extended period. Our division will be tough. I don’t like the though of Hinske getting 45 games in the outfield, or Jack Wilson getting 60 games in the infield. I’m also not sold that Constanza can repeat the magic of last year. Hopefully, my fear will be resolved when some of these promising AAAA players show they’ll be capable to hold down their positions if needed.
More than 90
Even considering we do no better than last year and equal after Sept 8th, we should win 95 games or more
bravesfan1957
using addition with subtraction
Using same theory as above, now add the loss of games by Lowe, total will be 95+
bravesfan1957
●
This team has the potential to win 100 games. However, there are likely to be injuries and slumps, so a more realistic outlook would be 90-94. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if they won more than 95, but I’d be very surprised if they won less than 90 with all the talent on the roster and most of the “veteran presence” now gone.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
Hmm...
A pitching staff with no real #1 and two starters coming off injuries. Hudson is coming off surgery.
We have a ton of depth on the rotation but the team will have to hit a lot better to win with young arms.
by mdhenshaw on Feb 1, 2012 7:42 PM EST via Android app reply actions
89-92 games is reasonable.
but hoping for more than that.
Braves, (NHL and NFL) Jets, Bruins, Celtics, and Whitecaps FC fan! Just one of God's mystical creatures, a big sports fan.
Twitter: @jrodisjust2cool
by jrodisjust2cool on Feb 1, 2012 11:32 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I see this as a 88-93 win team as is, but I could see big swings in both directions.
I shudder at the thought of losing Uggla for a long period of time and being back to our 2006-2010 problem of lacking a legit power bat in the middle of the lineup.
If things go wrong (especially with the young arms), I could see this as a low 80’s win team.
If the Braves make a move at the deadline for a big bat (IMO still needed for them to win the WS) then I could see them as a high 90’s win team.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
NO WAY 95+
Although there are many possible outcomes to the coming year, its very unlikely the Braves will get 95+ wins….or even close. What makes everyone think that our offense will just all-of-a-sudden be good? Maybe Heyward will be better, but chances are he will never be as good as his rookie year. Freeman could get better too, but will, most likely, regress. Our bullpen…no way can they repeat last year…right? And our starting rotation? I think both Hudson and Jurrjens will be unable to repeat last year. Hanson can very well be dominate, but with so young a rotation, there is even MORE stress on our bullpen.
Don’t get me wrong. I love the Braves and I beleive they will be good, but to think they will win 95+ games is ludicrious (or just being overly optimistic?). They will be that good within the next 2-3 years tho. I love all this young talent coming up.
Well to answer your 2 posts in 1
Heyward was amazing in his rookie year….no doubts. He has the potential to be one of the greatest, but he hasnt done it yet. Just looking at statistics, he is an average LFer. I for one hope and assume he will be better then last year, but he is not likely to be as good as he was in his rookie year.
Freeman hit way above his expectations…and ultimately his own skill level. He is due for a bit of a regression.
All winter I've felt like the team has been missing something.
But that’s ok. The team is, in my opinion, a good team now. Not elite, but solid. But a big part of this team is that we have the minor league prospects to go out and make a big deal for a slugger or a TOR starter if needed to shore up deficiencies that develop over the season. If Frank feels like we’re one piece away, then he has the ammunition to go get that player, get that team to eat a lot of salary, and not be too much the worse for wear for it. That’s an enviable position to be in.
Standing Still
I don’t see how anyone can argue that the team is significantly better than it was in 2011. Its almost the exact same group of guys. Some guys are likely to bounce back. Others might not. Everybody talks big about their new swing, or being in the best shape of their career at this time of year. Mostly that’s just a lot of hot air.
I guess you could make the argument that this team is a baby step of two a head of the 2011 team, but two of our division rivals will be significantly improved over last year.
If the lineup bounces back to career norms, Pastronicky plays well enough to stick in the lineup, Chipper stays healthy enough to play in 120+ games, and the rotation stays healthy, this could be a 95 win team. I think 88-90 wins is more realistic.
Same team as last year except...
1) No Lowe every 5th game. That’s gotta be worth at least 2-3 wins
2) Bourn for full season. Another 2-3 wins.
3) Healthy Prado and Heyward. 2-3 more.
4) Plus, no one is really saying this, but a better bullpen over what was arguably the best bullpen in the NL last season.
My only concern is shortstop and everyone else staying healthy. I can easily see this team winning 95. I like to err on the side of optimism though.
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