MLB.com's top 100 Prospects
by ryan c on Jan 25, 2012 11:35 PM EST
Email
Print
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp
Braves come in at numbers 4, 36, 42, 65,and 91. Pretty good showing considering the young guys already on the squad. I took the time to place the Braves players' analysis in the post but I'd recommend scanning through the prospects. The setup is quite user friendly.
4. Julio Teheran:
Statistically speaking: His FIP (fielding independent pitching) of 3.06 was a bit higher than his actual ERA of 2.55, meaning Teheran had some good fortune in 2011. That’s not bad by any means and his .288 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) was lower than the .300 average for pitchers. His hits-per-nine-innings rate of 7.7 was right in line with his career average as well.
Scouting report: With three pitches that grade as above-average or better, there’s good reason the Braves are excited about Teheran. With a clean delivery, he delivers fastballs in the mid-90s, and though he still looks like he could add some strength, durability and maintaining velocity have not been issues. To complement his fastball, Teheran also throws a curve and changeup, both above-average to plus, and he commands all three of his pitches well. The Braves were willing to push Teheran aggressively, then call him up at such a young age last year because of his outstanding poise on the mound. He’s not one to be fazed by taking his lumps at the highest level.
Upside potential: Pitching at or near the top of a Major League rotation soon and for a long time to come.
Other 4 after the jump...
36. Arodys Vizcaino:
Statistically speaking: Vizcaino has always done well in keeping his walks low and his strikeouts up and 2011 was no exception. He averaged 9.3 strikeouts and 2.6 walks per nine innings, in line with his 9.3 and 2.3 career marks. He has a robust 4.10 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his Minor League career.
Scouting report: Completely healthy after missing time in 2010 with an elbow issue, the key prospect the Braves got from the Yankees in the Javier Vazquez deal has the chance to have three above-average to plus pitches. His fastball sits in the low-to-mid 90s, and when he was working in shorter relief stints, he could reach back for a little more. He has a plus curve to go with the fastball and his changeup has improved tremendously. He commands his pitches well and has all the makings of a solid starter, though his power repertoire, success out of the bullpen last year and some lingering concerns about durability have some thinking he might be better suited to a short relief role.
Upside potential: The stuff and command are more than enough to be a No. 2 starter, but he also could be a high-octane setup man or closer if need be.
42: Randall Delgado:
Statistically speaking: Delgado pitched well down the stretch for Atlanta in 2011, with a 2.83 ERA in seven starts. His walk rate of 3.6 per nine innings was right in line with his 3.3 ratio in the Minors, but his strikeout rate dipped from 9.5 to 4.6. On the plus side, his hit rate also went down, from 8.0 in the Minors to 7.5 with the Braves.
Scouting report: Delgado will be 22 for all of 2012 and is ready to contribute full time at the big league level. He has a solid three-pitch mix with his breaking ball as his best pitch. He’ll throw his fastball consistently in the low 90s and his changeup is a more than usable option. He has struggled with command at times in his career, but he’s also shown an ability to make adjustments as he’s moved up the ladder.
Upside potential: A very good No. 3 starter, with perhaps a slightly higher ceiling than that.
65. Andrelton Simmons:
Statistically speaking: Simmons was equally productive in the first and second halves of the Carolina League season, hitting .304/.339/.381 in the first half and .319/.363/.436 after the break. His strikeout rate went down and his walk rate went up a tick in that second half.
Scouting report: The Curacao native and junior-college product might be ready to play defense in the big leagues right now, with a plus arm and outstanding range. He can hit, too, with excellent bat speed and an innate ability to make consistent contact. He doesn’t strike out much, but he doesn’t walk, either, and is a little too aggressive at the plate. He has the same approach on the basepaths, and once he learns how to rein it in a bit, he could become a very good all-around shortstop.
Upside potential: Tyler Pastornicky might be the short-term answer at shortstop in Atlanta, but Simmons could be the long-term one when all is said and done.
Statistically speaking: It didn't make much difference to Bethancourt whether he was facing left- or right-handers in the Carolina League as his splits against lefties (.288/.278/.327) and righties (.263/.277/.325) weren't far off. He followed that up with an Arizona Fall League campaign in which he hit .304 against southpaws and .306 against righties, showing the matchup wasn't a big factor in his at-bats. Also worth noting, he threw out 47 percent of baserunners in high Class A ball, which is seven percent better than the MLB leader, Miguel Montero.
Scouting report: Bethancourt is an extremely athletic catcher who has the chance to be a special all-around receiver. Scouts who saw him in the Arizona Fall League raved about Betancourt's athleticism behind the plate to go along with a plus arm, though he still needs work defensively on things like blocking balls in the dirt. He doesn’t walk, but he also doesn’t strike out, making consistent hard contact and showing good raw power. He runs very well for a catcher. One scout in the AFL compared him to a young Andruw Jones, rather than to another backstop.
Upside potential: Brian McCann doesn’t need a replacement yet, but Bethancourt’s the next in line, with the chance to be a superb all-around catcher
I'm excited about the core of young players that the Braves continue to produce. Furthermore, it's doubly good that we can develop them because after Terry McGuirk's bomb today, the Braves won't be paying for players for a few decades.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
106 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Maybe it’s just me but I thought some of the projections were kinda low for the Braves. Teheran’s upside potential is, in my opinion, ace. While it might be more certain that he is “at or near the top of a Major League rotation,” I wouldn’t call that his “upside potential.”
I guess they allow for some additional upside (in their upside potential section oddly enough) on Delgado so I won’t get too picky there.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Very excited about these young guys
"The way y'all are lollygaggin around here with them picks and them shovels, you'd think it was 120 degrees...can't be more than 114."
by SouthernPanther on Jan 26, 2012 1:51 AM EST reply actions
As good as this is
Of the lists out there (BA, BP, Sickels, Law, MLB.com) that I note, MLB.com’s is always the most odd, in their scouting and their projections.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
i would certainly agree with this, I put the least amount of stock in their opinions, not to say its not good to have prospects rated high or they don’t work their ass off to make this list, just i trust other dudes more on their projection.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Here is what I'm thinking for next year.
Not factoring in the possibility of contract extensions Braves will have 40-55 million dollars to spend on free agents depending on if they trade prado and Jurrjens and we get another modest payroll bump like we have the last couple years to fill, oh, like 5-8 or so roster spots. I would like to see that money go to signing David Wright and trading for and extending an ace to front the staff. Felix anybody? I’m thinking a deal packaged around Tommy Hanson and another good prospect could be enough. The rotation could be Huddy, Teheran, Minor, Delgado and Hernandez. I would like to see the Braves decline Huddy’s option and sign him at a lower rate. Thoughts?
Here's what I'm thinking...
After the reading the Terry McGuirk interview, the Braves will not (at least for the next 2 decades) be the team to spend top dollar on free agents. The Kawakami deal handicapped the team in 2011 and the Lowe deal has handicapped the team for 2012. It seems that the team has learned a bitter lesson from their 2009 offseason. I think the largest deal you might see the Braves make might be a 4 year deal with annual salaries reaching 10-12 million (which makes me less optimistic about re-signing McCann after 2013. They’re going to use this formula (which is what we’ve seen this offseason), 5 easy to say, difficult to do, steps:
1. develop players internally
2. sign non-elite free agents to 1 year deals.
3. create a good clubhouse atmosphere to entice players to stay at below-market values
4. build team around youth
5. when youth becomes expensive and expendable, trade that youth for other youth.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
This team learned nothing, we traded for and then immediately gave Dan Uggla a giant contract extension a year ago (that will probably handicap the team in a few years) that was, effectively, no different from a big FA signing.
The FA part of the interview is just spin for an uneventful off season with limited funds to spend and lukewarm interest in the trade chips we were willing to part with.
You can bet that as soon as Wren has some money to spend he’ll be locking in some FA bat to a contract that will probably handicap the team in a few years.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Does Uggla ever exceed $15m?
if not, I’d hesitant to call that a “giant” extension in a day and age when $20m annual salaries are routine for “giant” contracts.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
It’s $13 MM a year from here forward, which ties him with Chipper for the highest paid player on our roster and is around 14.5% of our payroll this season.
The big FA contracts that taught us our lesson were $15 MM a year for Lowe and a $7 MM a year deal for KK. If those deal crippled us, then you can bet that $13 MM a year for a statue that stands at the 2B position while balls roll by is going to be educating us all over again if it stops smashing with the bat.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
that's a big if though.
adding to that point…if the player is worth the contract, it handicaps nothing. Uggla wasn’t worth his last year, but I’d bet he will be in 2012.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
he made 9M last year and was worth 11.4M according to fangraphs…so even as a abysmal failure he still exceeded values.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
And if he can avoid that long down time
and post his usual .250+/.350+/.500+ slash line with 30-35+ HRs, he’ll easily stay above value for what he’s paid. If only we can work on that defensive issue (cough LF cough).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
even being a bad defender and enduring his worst offensive season to date he was worth 11M, keeping him at 2B might be better than moving him to LF, unless we can find a guy who is so superior defensively it works out for us. It is much easier to find a LF (theoretically speaking, seeing as we havent had a productive LF
in it seems 30 years)
there is no reason to think he wont exceed 13M in the next couple of years, the last year is the biggest question mark to me, but i still think the deal will end up positive for us
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I think the bottom line is that Uggla exceeded his contract after an absolutely terrible 2011. Gotta think that horrible performance is the exception so imagine how valuable he could be.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Jayson Werth was also valued at $11 MM last season while hitting .232/.330/.389 and playing average defense in a corner OF spot.
It just means that buying wins on the FA market is ridiculously inflated and expensive, to the point that guys who have a fairly unremarkable seasons are still worth double digits, which is why big FA signings tend to end up being a terribly inefficient way to get wins.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
abso-freakin-lutely
and why I’m not upset if the Braves aren’t in the market for big FA signings.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
This is all true.
Terribly inefficient, but it is a good way to add value in spots in which you have few advantageous options. That’s obviously questionable in the Uggla case because of Prado, but Prado’s versatility allowed the Braves to make the move.
If we ever routinely see an infield w/ Prado at third and Uggla at second, I think that would be the optimal light in which to view that decision (and with four years of Uggla left, I think there’s a good shot we see that). If the Braves can’t find an advantageous trade for Prado and he bounces back this season, I can see an extension occurring that would pair them up for a few years after Chipper’s gone. I think LF is and will be just a placeholder position for him until that point.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
there is no debating this point, but as a mid market team we will have the resources to spend something in the FA market. One or two contract every couple of years, well executed will keep us from being like any other mid market team and allowing us to compete.
I dont want us chasing every FA out there, but if we have $15M to spend and there is a player that fits our needs and is something we lack in our system (as it was last year when we did not have the RH power bat that we so desperately needed).
That said I wasn’t excited about the Uggla signing, it is a year too long and pushed Prado away from where he was most valuable. But he should prove to exceed his contract and thus it was a smart signing.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Good value, 1-2 yr FA signings
seem to work out at the highest % rate for success. Of course, that is entirely guy and lacks empirical, researched evaluation of any kind.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
i would prefer shorter contracts, but if it takes 4 year to sign a guy, and you thnk it will be a boon to value overall to do so and it fits an area of need, I am ok with it, but I don’t want to chase FA all the time.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Prado away from where he was most valuable.
I’m not sure about this. Yes, his bat plays very well there but it looks like second base is where he is weakest defensively. He was pretty darn good in LF, but of course that’s only one year’s worth of data and it’s even smaller for 3B.
i dont dispute that he was a worse defender at LF than at 2B, if you don’t take into account the replacement level of the respective positions. But since 2B is harder to fill with offense, the positional adjustment of playing 2B over LF makes him more valuable at 2B. This is only the case, because he isn’t an awful defender at 2B, just slightly below average.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
the truth is even if you don't want to own up to it
5 years 60 million dollars is not a big contract for someone who hits 30 homers. at all.
How many big money free agents have actually panned out?
Zito, ARod, Mauer, Helton, Soriano, Vernon Wells, Ryan Howard, Mike Hampton, Jason Giambi, Carlos Beltran, Kevin Brown, Carlos Lee, etc, etc, etc. Just how many of those deals have been worth it when all is said and done?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
i agree but thats beside the point
the braves are going to have a shit ton of money to spend next year with 1-3 starting spots to fill (bourn, chip if he retires and if they trade prado) and by golly they are going to spend it. why wouldn’t they? how would not spending just for the sake of not spending play with the fans? the braves will either trade for and extend or sign AT LEAST one marquee FA next year. guaranteed.
But the converse...
why spend just to spend? We have a limited budget. We have to use our resources wisely, and that is rarely done signing big money free agents.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
because baseball is a business and you need marketability
you think attendance sucks now just wait and see what happens if FW where to refuse to spend the money he is given by an already anal owner
Attendance didn't rise when we signed Lowe.
Nor when we traded for an “All Star” in McLouth. So long as we still have the talented players we do, and don’t nosedive to the bottom of the standings, free agents or no free agents won’t mean a thing in terms of attendance. It just won’t. So again, why spend money for the sake of spending it, if you’re not improving the long term health of the franchise. We did that with Lowe and Kawakami, and how did that work out? The Mets did it with Beltran and Santana, how did that work out? The Red Sox did it with Gonzalez and Crawford and Lackey, how did that work out?
If we have money to burn next year, I’d rather burn it locking up Heyward, Freeman, and some of the young arms. Aside from Josh Hamilton (who likely stays in Texas) and then maybe Bourn or BJ Upton in CF, just who in 2013 is worth big money? None of those 3B are attractive, or worth a long term, large money deal. Same with those SS, and again, aside from the 3 above mentioned OFs, the rest of that crop is a bunch of meh. But we got money to burn, so let’s give Jorge Cantu 4 years and $40m just so fans see we spent money (on a pile of crap).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
are you kidding me?
you are holding up lowe and mcout as fan attractions? lowe was like the fourth best FA pitcher in that class. if we got cc yes attendance would have gone up slightly and mclouth was a solid player but this is neither here nor there. i’m talking about ELITE players.
to answer your other points Lackey is the equivilent of Lowe. got a fat contract because of a terrible market for starting pitching. i saw that fiasco coming a mile away and i’m not monday quarterbacking that one either. gonzalez has been worth every penny the sox spent and crawford folded under the big lights and the pressure of his contract. crawford will be FINE.
BUT i have been thinking about some of the things other people have been saying so i’m dropping the idea of trading for felix. but without a doubt they have to sign or trade for a big bat whether it be wright or anyone else.
oh and i would rather sign victorino this offseason than bourn
click on that list of 2013 free agents
and tell me which one, besides the not gonna leave Texas Hamilton, that qualifies as an “ELITE player”.
David Wright? He hasn’t been good for 3 years. Victorino? You mean this guy?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
well...
Andre Ethier and David Wright are the only two elite position players in my opinion that don’t have options on the table
Brandon Phillips, Stephen Drew, Kevin Youkillis (short term deal of course), Victorino, Bourn, Seizmore (if he bounces back), Upton are all very good but not elite
and the reason i like victorino is because he is a a career .279 hitter with pop whereas bourn is a career .271 with no pop
wright hit 29 homers and .289 in 2010
so…. you don’t know what you are talking about
And his injuries have sapped him
where on the open market, his contract will likely exceed his worth.
But tell me I don’t know, as you advocate essentially wasting money, and how a big money free agent will increase attendance.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
you are incredibly frustrating
are you fu***** kidding me? WASTING MONEY?! signing a free agent at a position of need for the first time in FOUR years when you finally have the money you have been praying for IS WASTING MONEY? wasting money is rushing the market and spending big money just because some schmuck was the best available ie werth and lackey.
i’m not saying spending will boost attendance, i’m saying not spending will create a new level of frustration that will be reflected in ticket sales. and injuries sapping him? once again you don’t know what you are talking about. look at his game totals. he missed a lot of last year due to a micro fracture in his back. thats almost the best king of injury. a fluke bone injury. the worst thing would be nagging muscle injuries like jose reyes. before that his career low was 144 games.
Back injuries are actually amongst the worst
and yes, spending money for the sake of spending it is a waste. There isn’t a good buy in that class, maybe BJ Upton, but that assumes he lowers his K rate which may or may not happen. Maybe David Wright, but that assumes he isn’t a premium price, which he probably will be as the top player on the market at a position of need for several big spenders.
And again, free agents or no free agents won’t be what makes a difference in attendance. Winning will, and as history has shown, not even that.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
this wasn't a typical back injury though
it was the bone and not the muscle. when a bone breaks it heals stronger. when a muscle or ligament tears it heals weaker.
heres my point. if chipper retires would the braves be a better team with david wright? i believe clearly yes. can we afford him? yes. so if both of these things are true and they didn’t sign him, or anyone like him for that matter, and the braves are mediocre then fan frustration is at an all time high. people don’t watch the games and people don’t go to the games because they feel they where holding their end of the bargin and the braves aren’t theirs. i’m not saying attendance will be cut in half, i’m talking maybe a couple hundred thousand drop off. thats the danger.
i know what you mean about winning fixes everything but this is the best way to get there. if you aren’t getting better your getting worse. especially now that the nl east is becoming the al east. just wait and see. the braves are going to struggle this year. they have no chance. not because the fish are going to beat them outright but because the fish, the nats are going to cut into their wins.
one last thing to remember is that FW has to cover his ass too. if he refused to spend and the braves struggled his ass would be grass.
Wren spends according to what's in his budget
LM knows that, so no, it’s not impacting his job security.
And look at Braves attendance over the last decade, what you are saying simply does not hold up in reality.
Also on Wright specifically, while for one year, you may be right, Wren and the front office can’t be that simplistic. They have to look one, and five, and ten years out. Wright may help in year 1, but if his salary means they can’t extend Heyward in 5 years, or Freeman, then why are we paying for the diminishing returns of Wright, when you can pay for excess value in Heyward, and Freeman, and those long standing home grown fixtures in the lineup can do as much if not a helluva lot more for fan support and attendance than a single premium priced free agent ever would.
And even more on Wright, just cause we want him doesn’t make him want us. The Mets may see value in not losing him. Or the Cardinals want a 3B, the Dodgers, the Red Sox, the Phillies, etc, where he’d rather play, and they’d be willing to pay more than us thanks to much larger revenues.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
true true
the sox are gonna need a 3b and thats bad news
i’m just saying sitting on the money is dumb. they don’t have to necessarily sign wright but they better sign 2 others if they don’t.
heres a thought. what if we sign 2 of the bourn/victorino/upton bunch
that would be sick
And one plays CF...
while the other is a below average bat for LF? No thanks. They don’t HAVE to sign anyone, that’s been the point all along. They can reinvest that money resigning current rising talents to long term, below market deals buying out their arb years and then some. They can make sure to do as much as possible on the international free agent market or getting the best draft picks possible within the new CBA rules. Spending the money just to spend it, leads to wastes like Lowe and Kawakami.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Nice read guys...
Thanks… Like the way you think Mr. Sanchez.. save the money so we can keep the home grown talent… and IF we can get a bargain price take it
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
wright career averages
.300 BA
.380 OBP
23 Homers
91 RBI’s
and most importantly hit .346 against lefties the last 3 years
Agreed. The most valuable resource the Braves have is young talent. However, young talent is the lifeblood of a mid-market team with hopes of competing. It’s a fine-line to walk, especially because baseball teams are a revolving door of needs. You have to expect that you will eventually have an important opening. Young talent is what prevents stagnation and allows your team to remain on an upward track.
Free agents are an effort to provide tangible benefits to a team within a short term. Or a not so short term with some long contracts we’ve seen handed out, but certainly all of the baseball people involved understand that the value is going to decrease over age because that’s pretty basic for professional sports. Having a good farm system is an effort to insure that there is long-term stability. That’s one thing that makes our gigantic heap of talented young arms so important, because we can gain the short-term (with trade+extension if we are thinking long-term) and maintain some long-term by trading from a surplus.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
by GumpBrave on Jan 26, 2012 10:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Not necessarily. Here's my post on another site that breaks down the numbers.
(reflecting on Terry McGuirk’s statements…)
Here’s what I gathered from the article:
1. I guess it’s fair to say that we’ll be hovering around 94-95 million in 2013 as well.
2. The Braves, at least for the next 2 decades, will not be bidders on the 80+ million contract guys. I can live with that.
3. The Braves will continue to try and trade players, when they get expensive, for prospects or to fill a hole.
4. The Braves will continue to pursue 1 year cheap contracts on veterans.
Using this logic, the Braves probably won’t try to lock up McCann until after 2013 (hoping that his value drops a bit), will probably exercise Hudson’s ’13 option of 9 million, and will likely want to do the same with Chipper (assuming Chipper still wants to play). Chipper’s contract would range in between 7-14.5 million depending on games played.
So, there’s been speculation that the Braves will have serious money to spend in 2013. Let’s assume that Chipper’s healthy this year, maxes out his games played and decides to return in 2013…
Uggla: 13.2
Chipper: 14.5
Hudson: 9
McCann: 12
Arb-eligibles: Jurrjens, Prado, O’Flaherty, Heyward, Hanson, Medlen, Venters, the Lisp- together, they’d make approx. 35 million.
We’re already up to 80.7 for 11 players. Assuming that the Braves will pay 12 guys pre-arb numbers, that puts the total to 87 million for 23 players.
*If Chipper decides to retire then that puts $ in the bank for 2013 only because 2014 will be the year where our cheap, young players are no longer cheap.
*If Chipper doesn’t meet all of his incentives, the club will pay him 9 milion, which will put some money back into spending, but only for 2013 (see above comment)
*If Prado and Jurrjens are traded to rebuild the farm then that gives an extra 10 million for 2013 only (see above)
I think the Braves, for the foreseeable future, are done with big named free agents. We can all kiss ourJosh Hamilton dreams goodbye. Big players will have to come via trade.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
How do you ever expect to see Hanson net Felix?
Please tell me you’re joking…
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 26, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
`yeah i changed my mind
we can grow cheaper pitching
And we also aren't getting Felix Hernandez
because Seattle isn’t trading him. Definitely not for Hanson (unless we include Heap, Heyward, Teheran, and others).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
As much as I love Heap
and think he’s the bellcow for this team, I’d agree on waiting to lock him up at least another year. The C spot is so injury prone, that even the best, as we see with Mauer, can decline in a hurry once the knees (or back or whatever) start to go bad.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 27, 2012 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Mauer
was not a free agent
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 26, 2012 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
Neither was Helton or Howard
but the point stands. Huge dollar deals rarely bring back results, and can often go bad. We’re better off without them, especially on aging players and free agents where you rarely get value savings like you would with locking up young, rising stars.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 27, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
That said
Mauer was an entirely different thing, though. There’s a lot to do with marketability. Even if he’s not the stud of the team, Mauer will bring in near his contract value in retailing as the hometown boy.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 27, 2012 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
The guy I can see that comparison with on the Braves
…would be Heyward. If he rebounds and puts together a solid 2012 and progresses to All-Star level in 2013-2014, I’d say you buy out the last couple of years of his arbitration and give him a similar big-money deal like Mauer, knowing that his name and local boy draw will sell for quite some time in the area.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 27, 2012 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Or perhaps we should just spend it wisely
on good values, locking up young talents, and future prospects than can become stars. Sounds like an even better plan, and a helluva lot better than signing some of the above linked crap just because we had some salary come off the books (which if you actually do the math, we won’t thanks to extensions, raises, and players entering their arb years).
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jan 27, 2012 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
Would be better value than just about anyone in next year's free agent class
and more realistic of a possibility.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Wait, Simmons has excellent bat speed?
But I was told again and again he’s only a slap hitter by the expert around here who has seen him oh so much
nixa
he’s got great bat speed, but he’s a very slight guy: 6’2", 170. That’s in pounds. That kid’s tiny. I don’t care who you are or how fast your bat speed is, you won’t Slug over .350 in today’s game if you only weigh 170. If he puts on 20 lbs of muscle, then we’ll talk, but until then, he’s a future #8 hitter.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Jan 30, 2012 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
That's not how physics works
It doesn’t matter how much you weigh, it matters how much bat speed you generate. It just so happens that bigger people tend to generate more bat speed. You’re mistaking correlation for causation. We have seen plenty of relatively skinny players post huge slugging numbers as of late.
Simmons doesn’t need to be a power hitter or anything either. If he slugs .400 with a solid OBP, he’s a top tier SS considering how good his glove is supposed to be. The fact that he has excellent bat speed makes me confident he can be more than the slap hitter some have tried to portray him as. I’m not sure if you’ve seen CBWilk’s comments, but he literally claimed Simmons ceiling was Rey “can we DH for him and let the pitcher hit instead” Ordonez.
well i would argue that his ceiling is more akin to Ramirez’s seeing as Omar’s career OPS was 690. i think Omar is the likely outcome offensively for Simmons, whether or not he has the long and illustrious career well thats more luck than anything. Vizquel was blessed to play on amazing offensive teams that didnt need an offensive force at SS. IF Simmons is similarly blessed its possible he plays 15 years as a light hitting SS.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Alexei Ramirez?
the White Sox SS has hit over 15 HRs every year in the bigs, gone over 20 at least once. I can’t see Simmons showing that kind of power.
As for Omar, his bat gets a short regard imo. He’s had some bad years, especially early and again late in his career, but the meat in the middle was actually some very productive years at the plate. Particularly 1999, when his triple slash was .333/.397/.436. Give me a SS with Simmons D, and 11 seasons above .340 obp, and I’ll be happy.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Simmons hit 37 2B last year, it is not unreasonable to expect some of those doubles to turn into HR down the line.
I use ceiling very literally, there is a 1% chance he hits the ceiling, but that is his ceiling to me.
And I’d be perfectly happy with a Vizquel career, that would be fantastic.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
My thoughts
Simmons is unlikely to ever post the same sort of ISO that Ramirez has so far in his career, but he’s also a pretty good bet to better Ramirez’s .279 career average. When its all said and done I don’t think a .421 SLG is out of the question for Simmons, but he probably needs to be hitting around .300 for that to be a possiblity.
the perfect case of your argument would be Alexei Ramirez, he is almost identical in size to Simmons and has a career slugging of 421, becuase he has great bat speed.
its interesting because it directly refutes the proposal that you cant slug more than 350 if you only weigh 170 (in fairness Alexei does weigh 175).
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
heck Erick Aybar only weighs 180, and he slugged 421 last year (390 for his career)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
not how physics works?
as someone who majored in Physics, i’d beg to differ.
you need a force to supply the force on the baseball. that’s MASS x ACCELERATION. consequently, if you accelerate faster, but have a constant mass, you get a greater force on the ball. but your momentum must be higher than the momentum of the pitch coming in (momentum is mass x velocity). again, another MASS issue. ergo, you can swing as fast as you like, but if your mass is not enough to provide the proper FORCE on the ball and overcome the momentum of the baseball, it isn’t going very far. my 4 year old daughter is a testament to that.
as for “correlation for causation”, you are forgetting that physics could care less about your semantics.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 1, 2012 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
If you think the physics involved is that simple
Then the school you got a degree in physics from didn’t do a very good job teaching you. I honestly don’t mean that in a mean way or anything (I simply think you’re lying about majoring in physics…at least I hope you are), but trying to simplify an incredibly complex system that includes rotational acceleration being translated to linear acceleration through multiple levers into a simple F=M*A equation is just asinine. I mean I didn’t major in physics or anything, but I went to one of 4 schools tied for the top ranking in physics programs among US colleges.
Oh and a person’s momentum has nothing to do with the momentum of the pitch. Its the momentum of the bat. Which is why I said that the hitters weight doesn’t matter. The momentum that matters involves the mass of the bat and the angular velocity of the bat. Which is why I said bat speed is all that matters.
The bat is the conduit for the transfer of kinetic energy; the mass of the person swinging the bat is inconsequential. Are you trying to say that a person who weighs 10,000 lbs and accelerates the bat at 1 m/s^2 produces the same force as a 200 lb person who accelerates the same bat at 50 m/s^2? That makes no sense.
The arms play a pretty big factor in this as well, as the pivot point is not the end of the bat, but somewhere between the shoulders. Since mass is part of the equation, a lot of the upper body is going to play a role.
I’m no physicist, but if you have two players that swing the bat at equal velocities, the person with more upper body mass will very likely hit the ball farther, assuming everything else in the experiment is identical.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Of course, if we’re talking about pivot-points then that opens up a whole new set of complications. Now you have to account for the conversion from rotational acceleration to tangential acceleration as well as the torque itself which has to account for the radius from the pivot-point and the angle of the bat relative to the the arm swinging it. I think this goes with what nixa was saying—this system is too complicated to be reduced purely to an issue of linear force and momentum.
how much did Alfonzo Soriano weight?
when he was hitting 40 or so Home runs with the Yanks, Rangers and Nats? He was pretty light as well if i can remember correctly.. he defied logic
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
There are/were heavy rumors about Soriano and PEDs
Not ‘roids, but then again about 10% of what we hear about as violating PED rules is an actual steroid. Not saying he did or he didn’t, but certain PEDs on the market will allow you to keep your lean mass and essentially make the muscle you have more efficient. Soriano was a very quick trigger guy in his wrists more than bat speed, much like Hank was.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 31, 2012 9:25 AM EST up reply actions
Alexei Ramirez...
is actually the same size as Andrelton… so it is possible that Simmons could be a 15-20 Homerun guy.. but i kind of doubt it… unless he bulks up a bit and wants to be. He projects to be more of a speed and defense guy…
Soriano, i wouldnt doubt that he used performance enhancing drugs, cause he was way to small to be hitting those bombs he was hitting lol.. and i think hes closer to 200 lbs now. But when he first came up i think he was 165-175
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Ramirez
His profile coming to the states was as a 20/20 type of guy, and I remember seeing him his rookie year and how efficient he was on the bases. He’s an average at best base stealer, but he is an excellent baserunner, along the lines of what Cristian Guzman used to be – fair basestealer, excellent baserunner.
Simmons has a great bat in the zone, but it’s possible his baserunning (which I’ve heard and read is excellent) led to his 41 non-HR extra base hits in 2011 as much as any raw power did, so projecting out doubles into homers as he “fills out” could also be incorrect. I see him as a guy who will provide 0-2 WAR offensively, but could still be a 3-4 WAR SS year in, year out.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 31, 2012 5:27 PM EST up reply actions
"Soriano was a very quick trigger guy in his wrists more than bat speed"
The wrists are just one of the ways that you create bat speed. Its still bat speed that allowed him to hit all those HR.
True
…but I hear bat speed, and I tend to think more about efficient swing with a great plane and path, etc. Soriano would have horrid reactions on a pitch, but his wrist speed would allow him to push a ball out to right. Soriano has shown his struggles in repeatable ‘bat speed’ (as I would define it) as he aged, which has sped his decline as his wrists have lost some speed and strength in age.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 31, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure that word means what you think it means
Trolls don’t usually stick around and have reasonable conversations about the topic at hand. I’d say deciding to reply with a one word comment is much closer to the true definition of trolling.
You jump at every opportunity to criticize cbwilk and his assessment of certain prospects, or maybe just Simmons. It’s as if you don’t realize that other people were reading those conversations and are well aware of the difference in how you view Simmons as a player and has cbwilk views Simmons as a player. You are trolling. The only semblance of “reasonable conversations” you have are ones in which you force your supposed expertise of minor league players down the throats of anyone who is willing to disagree with you.
You read a lot of “expert opinions” on minor league prospects. You are generally in the know when it comes to these players. Good for you, but that’s not as impressive as you seem to think it is. You should stop trying so hard to insert yourself as the resident minor league expert.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
Please point out where I tried to force my opinion down anyone else's throat here
And yeah I’m going to point out the asinine criticism our resident “minor league expert” laid against a prospect that he’s supposedly seen a bunch and knows a lot about. The guy claimed Simmons could never be anything more than a slap hitter and that his offensive ceiling was that of Rey Ordonez. He completely disregarded all the strong support Simmons has gotten from scouts because he thinks he’’s smarter than they are. I’m simply exposing him for what he is.
I will concede for purposes of argument that CB is blatantly wrong about Simmons ( I tend to think he has a higher ceiling than CB). If CB is wrong, what does that really prove? It proves that after giving his opinion (it is sometimes difficult to remember that all this is is an opinion) of countless Braves minor leaguers, he was wrong about one (surely he has been wrong about others, as CB would surely admit).
So I’m not sure what you have to gain for exposing him for what he is, unless you are trying to expose him a a giant ginger teddy bear, in which case all you need to do is see a picture of him, and he will be exposed for what he is. You don’t have to agree with CB, thats fine, similarly how I don’t agree with anything Troy Aikman says, I have gone so far as to question whether I was wrong when Troy and I agreed (turns out I was in fact wrong, bc the law of Troy Aikman is that he is wrong). But you gain absolutely nothing from proving that CB is wrong about a single prospect. For example, The Braves thought very highly of a couple of prospects, Salty and Betemit, they were wrong on both, does that mean that the Braves are bad evaulators of prospects, no it means they screwed up a couple of times.
At the end of the day I am trusting the guy who has close relationships with the coaches and players and watches a ton of games, and for the most part knows what to look for, you certainly don’t have to, but constantly trying to upstage CB isn’t going to look good on your part (mostly because you just look petty).
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
He initially spent a lot of time telling me how I was wrong about Simmons
So yeah, I’m going to in turn point out that the people who are paid to do this for a living not only disagree about Simmons future but, far more importantly, about his present. This is my single biggest issue with CB and his take on Simmons. He was spending time telling me how Simmons has no offensive upside and is doomed to be a slap hitter for the rest of his career when people in the game like his upside because he CURRENTLY has excellent bat speed.
↑
I agree with Swo, and will add to it a little. Bringing up the same ax-grinding statement every time Simmons is mentioned is what gets you called out for trolling, nixa. Also, CB may be right or the scouts may be right; we won’t definitively know until Simmons actually reaches his peak. Just because a bunch of scouts agree with your assessment, doesn’t make either of you right just yet.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
You don't have to wait that long to see who is right about tools
CB was wrong about Simmons tools. That has been my issue with his statements the entire time. Guys with Simmons height and bat speed aren’t doomed to forever be slap hitters with Rey Ordonez upside. It was possibly the worst assessment I’ve seen of a prospect and its coming from a supposed expert who took the time to explain why I was wrong because he had seen Simmons play so he knew better.
And seriously, how many times have I brought it up now? Until new information just came out (which had to do with the exact debate we had), it had been 2 months since I made a comment about Simmons on this site. So yeah new information came out, which directly refuted this condescending remark CB made to me…
I’m just not confused about what he’ll develop into. Best case scenario he’s Rey Ordonez.
And I took a little joy in pointing out that the professionals agreed with my take. If that makes me a troll, so be it. I guess I don’t like getting talked down to by a faux expert.
↑
Just put the axe down and back away. Maybe CB is wrong, maybe you and the scouts are wrong, maybe everybody’s wrong and Simmons worst-case-scenarios it and ends up in the bullpen. It’s too early to make definitive conclusions about potential and scout assessments when the kid hasn’t seen an at-bat in AA yet. I’m not sure how many times you’ve brought it up. I don’t keep track of that sort of thing. I’ve just noticed a theme developing anytime someone has something positive to say about Simmons.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
On who is wrong
The only person who has made a definitive statement about Simmons is CB. Neither the scouts or me has said that he will have a successful MLB career. We’ve simply acknowledged that the tools are there for him to be a solid hitter. CB is the one who said (with certainty) they he could never be anything more than a slap hitter and that his ceiling was Rey Ordonez. In no way is it too soon to analyze that assessment.
Again, I hadn’t mentioned Simmons in two months before this list came out. Suddenly this list comes out and I pointed out (yes in an antagonistic way, but then again CB’s behavior and certainty in himself in the initial thread rubbed me the wrong way) how much scouts disagree with CB’s assessment. If that’s trolling, then apparently other people have a much looser definition of it that I do. The only reason I even posted in this thread (I initially posted in the one on the main page) is because I didn’t realize until reading this one that they specifically praised Simmons bat speed, something with completely contradicts the picture that CB painted of him to the entire site.
Interesting
Phillies, I think, had the same number in the top 100.
Difference here is how many young players the Braves have. This was suprising to me, but Brian McCann, who is by all accounts a grizzled vet in Atlanta, would be one of the youngest players on the Phillies. As far as current position players, only Dominic Brown is younger.
I wonder if the Reds would trade us Zack Cozart...
for JJ… He looks pretty tough and has some pop as well.. If he bulks up a bit he could also be a possible 3b of the future as well… just a thought
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
Doubt it
He’s supposed to be their starting SS isn’t he?
no
I think Paul Janish is…, unless its changed this year
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
It's Cozart
They’ve come out and said they were looking for a vet to work with Cozart in news reports…I’d have to find sources, but that’s been their MO all offseason is working with Cozart as the projected starter.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 31, 2012 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
well if it isnt true, it probably should be...
Cause I wouldnt mind having him.. He looks pretty good to me.. just IMO
"Performance comes from work and dedication, belief and strength. Words and excuses get you nowhere." -Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves Rightfielder
I think Paul Janish is
Dusty Baker needs to be permanently removed from baseball.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Feb 1, 2012 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Barry Bonds thinks it will be ‘very sad’ if he doesn’t get into the Hall on his first try
- Chris Johnson’s glove webbing had a Spidey sense at Coors Field — for one play, at least
- Jonathan Lucroy breaks hand after suitcase falls during search for sock
- The Juice: Long Adam Dunn homer punctuates Chris Sale’s 15 Ks, Mark Trumbo goes deep after Jered Weaver goes down for Angels
- Leyland begs media to make umpires ‘accountable’ for bad calls (VIDEO)
