Brandon Beachy: 2012 Cy Young Award Winner??
by Glenn DuPaul on Jan 2, 2012 5:57 PM EST
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PrintI write my own blog called Baseball's economist, and I thought today's blog post would be interesting for Braves fans:
Pioneer sabermetrician, Bill James, has come out with his 2012 projection for the Major League season, and some interesting conclusions can be drawn from them. Based on the FIP pitching metric, a defense independent measure of pitcher’s effectiveness, 2011 NL Cy Young award winner, Clayton Kershaw (2.72 projected FIP) projects as the number one pitcher in baseball in 2012. Among the pitchers who James projects to throw 150+ innings in 2012, the pitcher who is second to Kershaw in FIP, would surprise most baseball fans, as well as, experts. The number 2 pitcher is not Roy Halladay (2.96), Justin Verlander (3.20), Tim Lincecum (2.95), Zack Grienke (3.23), or Cliff Lee (2.99), but instead it is Atlanta Braves right hander Brandon Beachy. James projects Beachy to have a FIP of 2.83, in 27 starts in 2012. This projection makes me wonder, is it possible that Brandon Beachy, a 25 year old pitcher with only 28 career major league starts, will be the second best pitcher in all of baseball in 2012?
2011 was Beachy’s first full season as a major league starter (3 career starts prior and one minor league start in 2011), and he performed admirably. In 25 starts (141.2 IP), Beachy put up solid numbers based on standard metrics; his record was 7-3 with 169 strikeouts and an ERA of 3.68. His sabermetric numbers were even more impressive posting a 2.8 WAR (2nd among Braves’ starters) and a FIP of 3.19, which ranked 19th among 2011 pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched, ahead of 20-game winner Ian Kennedy and Angels’ ace Jered Weaver. FIP is a statistic based critically on outcomes decided solely based on pitching performance (home runs, walks/hbp, and strikeouts), and Beachy excels in these categories. Beachy has struck out 28% of all batters he’s faced in his major league career, his career K/9 rate of 10.57 and BB/9 of 3.04 (James projects these numbers to be consistent in 2012; 10.63 and 2.79, respectively). James also projects Beachy’s HR/9 rate to fall to 0.75 in 2012, which results in the incredible FIP number of 2.83 that has been projected for Beachy.
Based on his career numbers Beachy will not need to improve in any aspect of his game to reach his projection, other than in limiting in home runs (16 home runs given up in 2011, will need to fall to the projected number of 13). But would a number 2 ranking in FIP, next season, make Beachy a Cy Young contender? My answer is probably not. To be a top major league pitcher you need to be not only effective (which Beachy is), but also an innings eater. Wins seem to have been thrown out in deciding the Cy Young award winner (see Felix Hernandez in 2010), but making less than 30 starts and throwing under 200 innings is not enough to be a star. Last season’s Cy Young winners, Kershaw and Verlander, had 33 starts/233 IP and 34 starts/251 IP, respectively. Thus, for Beachy to have any opportunity to be considered a top MLB starter the Braves will have to let him start more games and throw more innings than he did last season, or than he has been projected to throw this season. But even if Beachy was allowed to throw 50+ more innings, his FIP seems too low to be sustainable for an arm as young as his. However, one thing is for sure, the Braves should consider Brandon Beachy their number 1 starter going into 2012.
The Atlanta Braves website currently lists Beachy as their 4th starter, behind Tim Hudson (2012 projected FIP 3.80), Jair Jurrjens (3.88) and Tommy Hanson (3.39). In wins and ERA Beachy (11-6, 3.14) is also projected to perform better than Jurrjens and Hanson. Hudson is projected to have more wins than Beachy but finish with a higher ERA. Thus, by projections, Beachy will be the best pitcher on the Braves staff (a very good staff at that), in 2012. This should not be surprising, though, because Beachy led their staff in FIP last season and was second in WAR. Brandon Beachy may not be the number 2 pitcher in baseball, or a Cy Young award winner in 2012, but if the righty continues to post high strikeout numbers and low walk rates, it wouldn’t be bold to consider him a top starter in the future.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Preaching to the choir
Beachy is pretty good
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I liked the part where he says if Beachy were “allowed 50+ more innings…” I had a hunch it was Fredi’s idea to limit his innings and not Beachy’s health getting in the way.
by JohnRocker4CyYoung on Jan 2, 2012 8:13 PM EST reply actions
I’d like to see Beachy in more than 1 season before I consider him an NL Cy Young contender.
Seriously, guys…y’all do realize that Beachy wasn’t even in baseball just a short time ago, right?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 2, 2012 9:46 PM EST reply actions
What’s your point exactly? His career path is odd. He doesn’t have a whole lot of experience, but what are we supposed to take from that? Are we not supposed to acknowledge how well he’s pitched so far in his professional career? Are we not supposed to speculate about his future, and if do speculate are we not supposed to use his previous statistics to help us inform our opinions?
It’s one thing to guarantee that he won’t see a drop off in production. That’s a bit premature, because he is still inexperienced. But to simply acknowledge how well he’s pitched and what it will mean if he keeps it up is not in the least bit unreasonable. Also, aside from his lack of experience, there’s not much reason to expect him to be less affective in 2012.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
What's my point?
It’s a bit ridiculous to think that Brandon Beachy will win the NL Cy Young Award.
That’s my point.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions
And you’d rather be deliberately terse rather than actually partake in the discussion. That’s a very worthwhile way to spend your time.
I don’t care about the award. What about Bill James’ projections, mentioned above, should we not consider to be accurate and why? If Beachy continues to pitch the way he has so far, and is able to pitch an acceptable amount of innings, will he not be among the best pitchers in the National League? That’s the real point being discussed, not whether he’ll be awarded the Cy Young.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
oh lord... baiting the Justin is bad for your blogosphere health...
it will leave you dissatisfied and confused… much like some peoples love life…
In the body of other posts, I am often admittedly high and tend to not want to edit a lot.
by willlinn on Dec 2, 2011 12:01 PM PST
if Wren gets Arenado from Colorado, I’ll give him a BJ.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 19, 2011 9:45 PM PST
by Klemson Krash on Jan 3, 2012 8:07 AM EST up reply actions
I’ve read enough of his conversations to know how they usually end up. That won’t be the case with this one.
I honestly don’t think he read the fanpost. I think he just read the title and decided to chime in with some snark and general pomposity, per usual. That’s rather obnoxious.
As baseballs_econ mentions,Beachy won’t have to improve upon his 2011 numbers, other than limiting homeruns better, and he could feasibly reach these projections, which have him finishing second in the NL in FIP.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
I read the article, thanks
And the title suggests that he will contend for a Cy Young Award in 2012 – or did I jump to conclusions with that?
It’s ridiculous to make such a claim, as Beachy is not even the 3rd best pitcher on his own team, let alone the best or 2nd best in all of the NL.
There are easily 2 dozen pitchers better than Beachy.
This isn’t to say that Beachy is not any good, because he certainly is. He just isn’t close to one of the best in the league yet.
As for Bill James, I couldn’t care less what he predicts. He’s rarely right. Projections themselves are completely stupid and aren’t really worth discussing.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 9:01 AM EST up reply actions
It’s not that it’s Bill James, in so far as his name is attached to it, that makes this worthwhile. These projections do not rely on Beachy taking giant leaps forward. All he has to do is continue pitching the way he has so far in his career, except be able to do it over 220 innings, and he’ll be on the best pitchers in baseball.
If you don’t think he’ll continue to pitch this well for the simple fact that it’s unlikely for a player to come up the way he did and be as good as he is, that’s fine. But there’s no reason to dismiss the conversation entirely because Beachy “wasn’t in baseball a short time ago”. You don’t know that he’s incapable matching his numbers from last season and throwing more innings, and the only reason you have to doubt his ability to do so is that he’s in the midst of an extremely unlikely career path.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
His last two months
were considerably worse than his first two.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
He had a 1.89 FIP in August and a 2.15 FIP in September. He had one bad month, July, but came back from it and dominated until the close of the season. His ERA in September was misleading.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
He was giving up more runs in both of those months than before.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
Only September. He had a 3.41 ERA in August. In September, he walked a lot of hitters, but he still struck out over 13 per 9 innings and limited hits as well as he had all year.
It was his last three starts of the season that were bad. If you’re going to say that those starts were the beginning of a regression, then ok, but that’s not a whole lot of evidence to support that opinion.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
How is the ERA misleading? Don’t get me wrong, I am not a person who believes in ERA by itself.
However, I will say that in 10 Aug/Sep starts, Beachy gave up 4 runs 4 times. He didn’t pitch out of the 6th inning in any of those starts. The fewest number of pitches thrown in any of those starts was 85 pitches in 5 innings (and he also gave up 4 runs in that game).
He was routinely throwing tons of pitches in very few innings – and giving up runs in the process. Sure, his K numbers were still fantastic. But, in his last two starts, he gave up 9 total BBs in 10.1 IPS.
Now, before anyone starts screaming “SSS” I will remind everyone that we are talking about a guy with only 1 season under his belt with no professional track record to support a claim one way or the other.
Essentially, what I’m saying is that Brandon Beachy is an unknown. He was very good at times for the Braves last year – for most of last year, in fact.
BUT, he was also very human at other times – particularly towards the end of the season. In his 5 Sept starts, he gave up 3 or more runs in 4 of them and compiled a final stat line of:
27.1 IP, 25 H, 14 BB, 16 ER, and a 5.27 ERA. Again, his strikeout numbers were great, which is almost exclusively what made his FIP good.
But you cannot honestly tell me that a guy who gave up 16 earned runs in 27.1 IPs pitched well. I don’t care what his FIP was.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:22 PM EST up reply actions
He did a lot of things well, but also walked way too many people. Like I said, we’re talking about three really bad starts to finish the season.
I’m fine with acknowledging that he is an unknown. My entire point is that I don’t feel you can dismiss this sort of conversation, where we speculate what his season will look like if he continues pitching at that level over an increased number of innings. He might not do that, but his lack of experience alone does not provide sufficient evidence to dismiss the conversation all together.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
I think, if he were to continue to pitch at the same level that he pitched at last season, then he will be the 3rd/4th best pitcher on our team (like he was last season) and be a very good above average starter.
I don’t think he will be a CY contender.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not baiting you, but is that opinion based entirely on his inability to pitch deep into games? If he sustained the level of success he had in 2011 but managed to average more than six innings per start, do you believe that he might be our best starter (depending on whether Hanson kicks it up a notch and pitches even better than that)?
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
No, that's a reasonable question
If he were able to continue to strike out guys at almost a K/inning rate, AND pitch deep into games, he would be Josh Johnson, and would, in fact, be a Cy Young contender.
I see Beachy in the same mold as Hanson, with Hanson being a better pitcher.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 4:02 PM EST up reply actions
You read the "article"?
You claim you read the article and not just the title but your commentary suggests otherwise. The article states that there’s little to chance Beachy could be considered for the Cy. The article is no way makes a clain that he would. You asked if you jumped to conclusions and the answer is yes.
by charlestonbrave on Jan 3, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Silly me. I guess the next time I read a headline that asks a question, I should not consider that headline relevant to the following write-up, nor the comments associated with it.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
That's the point...
I’m not saying that the title doesn’t lead you to think that the article with position Beachy as a potential Cy candidate but once you read the article it in no way makes that cliam. So if you read the article then your initial conclusion would be changed by the body of the article. Therefore your commentary makes no sense if you in fact read the article. I guess you’re learned to read the article before jumping to conclusions and making comments.
by charlestonbrave on Jan 4, 2012 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
I’m going to write an article entitled
“Miami Heat: 2012 NBA Champions???”
and then proceed to make the article all about how awesome the Heat is, and how they are one of the best teams in the league, etc, etc, etc and then make no distinction about whether or not I think they will win the 2012 NBA Championship.
If people think that I am inferring that the Heat will win, then they are jumping to conclusions.
Additionally, if people are commenting that the Heat will win, it is in no way related to the content of the article, and anyone who proceeds to debate the claim is completely off-base and irrational.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 4, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
To be completely fair
The OP stated that due to Beachy’s innings being limited that it is unlikely that he would win.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 4, 2012 12:06 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t know jack or crap about the NBA. I stopped following the NBA pretty much when Kobe Bryant became the face of the league. I can’t stand it anymore. It’s not real basketball.
I miss the good ol’ days.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 4, 2012 3:08 AM EST up reply actions
I stopped watching after Jordan retired the second time
I follow tidbits every now and then, but when Jordan played I could watch the whole game just to see the domination and skill…
then again I think we have discussed this somewhere already…
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
But since we added him, he has been absolutely lights out
I agree on thinking this may be a flash in the pan, but it’s been one helluva flash, and at no point since he became a starter (or even as a reliever) has he been anything less than exceptional.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
missing an option it seems
that he will be putting up ace numbers
while Hanson does as well
by willlinn on Jan 2, 2012 10:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
i get that feeling also but only because of the hitch in tommy's delivery and the arm issues i think it will cause.
"Don't tell me about the pain, just bring me the baby" Cam Newton
by braves&panthers4ever on Jan 4, 2012 1:40 PM EST via Android app up reply actions
Beachy is awesome...
I’d just like to see him command his curve a little bit better and I can see those picks coming to fruition.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
Where is TL2!?!?! Paging TL2 for his comments...
In the body of other posts, I am often admittedly high and tend to not want to edit a lot.
by willlinn on Dec 2, 2011 12:01 PM PST
if Wren gets Arenado from Colorado, I’ll give him a BJ.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 19, 2011 9:45 PM PST
He’s a good-looking guy. And from Indiana. But abraves257 has long laid claim on Beachy, a territorial claim I respect so long as he stays away from McCannistan.
Celebrating 60 years of NBC News Today, January 14, 1952 - January 14, 2012
LOL!
I was going to post that he should be looking for abraves257!
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 4, 2012 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
love Beachy
, but it aint happening. First and foremost, he will not throw enough innings. secondly, with his quick delivery to the plate, i think it helped him a lot more with unfamiliar hitters. as they adjust to that i can see his k rate regressing a bit. excited to see him in year 2 – i think he’s capable of having a real strong year, but cy young is not all that realistic.
Did I miss the report that Beachy developed an out pitch this offseason?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
You do realize that you are talking about the starter with the highest or second highest K-rate on the team, right?
I agree with Justin that he is probably not going to win the Cy Young this year, but that does not mean that he is not an incredibly talented pitcher that already posted on of the highest K-rates for starters in the league.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Jan 3, 2012 10:47 AM EST up reply actions
You do realize that a high K-rate typically leads to longer ABs and fewer innings pitched right? You’re not going to win a Cy Young if you can’t throw over 200 innings. And I didn’t debate his talent, just his Cy Young candidacy.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jan 3, 2012 10:57 AM EST up reply actions
I don't expect it...
but his FIP and other numbers are all crazy impressive considering his background. If he could post those same numbers over say 220 innings this year (not saying he will, but big, huge IF), that’s Cy level numbers of a strong ERA, 200-250+ Ks, and what would almost certainly be several wins. It’s hard to argue with his results.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
And, as I posted originally, that big IF becomes a reality only if he develops an efficient out pitch.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jan 3, 2012 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Santaklose11’s point was that it’s odd how you can accuse a guy who strikes out well over a batter per inning of not having an out pitch. Obviously, he threw too many pitches last season. Hitters were able to have long at bats against him, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have an out pitch. It just means that his goal seemed to be to record a strikeout against every single hitter he faced. He wouldn’t pitch to contact, which meant that he had to throw some extra pitches as he nibbled the corners and went for the strikeout.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
There’s a difference between an out pitch and a strikeout pitch.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jan 3, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
An out pitch commonly refers to a pitch intended to strike the batter out or induce weak contact resulting in an out
and Beachy obviously has that….or those (his fastball has a lot of movement). Otherwise, I suppose Kimbrel does not have an “out pitch” either.
As Mr. Sanchez points out, if the pitch results in an out, then it is an out pitch…and a strikeout pitch is certainly an out pitch.
True he is not efficient yet…but that will come and right now you certainly cannot legitmate criticize Beachy for not having an out pitch when he strikes out nearly a batter an inning.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
In all honesty I’m not sure which of Kimbrel’s pitches would be called his out pitch. That slider is unfair.
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2012 2:01 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pretty much all of Kimbrel’s pitches are little unfair.
That is why I was debunking the whole out-pitch thing in regards to the argument that pitchers need to have one different pitch that they use to strike a batter out with…usually a type of offspeed pitch.
Pitchers like Kimbrel, Venters, and Beachy have so much movement on their fastball that they can use it to strike out batters as effectively as their offspeed pitches. Their off-speed pitches just add to the arsenal and are just icing on the cake. Alternatively pitchers like Greg Maddux just have such ridiculous command and precision that they don’t need an “out-pitch”.
Contrast that with pitchers like Vizcaino who throw heat (with less movement) but use their offspeed pitch in 2 strike counts to strike the batter out.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Jan 10, 2012 11:55 AM EST up reply actions
Precisely!!
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
He gets an awful high % of outs for someone who lacks...
“an effecient out pitch”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That's not efficiency.
Getting 27 outs on 105 pitches is efficient. Getting 27 outs on 150 pitches is not.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jan 3, 2012 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Did he throw a pitch that resulted in an out?
Yes? Then it’s an “out pitch”.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I think the fatal flaw of this post...
…is that it assumes that FIP is the best stat with which to measure pitchers and does not address the flaws of FIP. As noted by many, it does not address how many pitches it takes a pitcher to get through innings, which will affect the number of innings pitched. Beachy tends to take a lot of pitches to get through 5 or 6 innings, which is why his IP was lower in 2011.
To state that Beachy is the best pitcher on the staff also assumes that FIP is more reliable than history. Not many pitchers can induce enough weak contact to consistently outperform their FIP’s or other advanced indicators, but some can. Jurrjens and Hudson happen to be two of them. This is doubly impressive for them because their outperformance of their advanced metrics has been done despite a generally poor defense behind them.
Beachy is a good pitcher, but not yet an ace. He may develop into one, he might not—given his short track record, it is really hard to know. However, he certainly is not likely to be in Cy Young consideration next year because to do so he would have to: (1) learn how to get deeper into games very quickly, and (2) have his ERA end up near his FIP, which is tough with our poor defense. He would also have to maintain his K rate which is probably due for a little regression.
"Beachy tends to take a lot of pitches to get through 5 or 6 innings, which is why his IP was lower in 2011."
I’ve found the same could be said re: Hanson, and it’s one of his issues that have kept him from being the ace he is capable of.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Too bad we can’t send Beachy to the Nolan Ryan school of endurance. If he could throw 130-140 a night, it wouldn’t be so bad. His delivery is real smooth and efficient so I think he might be able to pull it off, unlike Hanson. Also, Beachy strikes me as a very smart pitcher, so he’ll adjust eventually anyways.
I completely agree
I actually think Beachy is a real hidden gem that we uncovered. With the right training and conditioning I think he might have incredibly good career. Perhaps he was “discovered” too late to reach the HOF at this rate, but if he develops correctly, he may come close.
That being said I do not think he will be challenging for the Cy this year…in two years maybe depending on adjustments, but not this year.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
My thoughts exactly. We went from discussing the possibility of a Cy Young (or Cy Young caliber) season to extrapolating that to his potential HOF status.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
All for a guy who pitched 141 innings….
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:30 PM EST up reply actions
I, for one, welcome our new Brandon Beachy overlords.
by Ivan the Great on Jan 3, 2012 4:06 PM EST up reply actions
I love the dude
he’s a fantastic story, but holy crap batman, can we get carried away!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
you ignored the rest of that sentence. I agree that the first half of that sentence was very very bold….which is why is was tempered by the second half.
If his FIP suggests he can be challenging for Cy Youngs, and he already has a great K/rate, then he may well have a very strong career IF HE DEVELOPS CORRECTLY.
I am just saying his (small) sample size and apparent intelligence suggests a higher ceiling than that, that most of us expected from him. So IF the predictions turn accurate AND he does become more efficient than I think we could well see a career that might fall just short of HOF.
Again, I stress the number of ifs involved…but am just saying that he has very good stuff and has far outperformed expectations thus far.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
then he may well have a very strong career IF HE DEVELOPS CORRECTLY
If they develop correctly, how many players could fill in that “he” Santa?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Am not a grammar / style nazi so no worries
but in answer to the question: not that many players have the stuff, tools, and brains to have a great/very strong/almost HOF type career even if they do develop correctly. Ricky Nolasco has developed correctly but is not going to come close to the Hall, Derek Lowe developed correctly but is not going to come close to the Hall. What I am saying is that even when a lot of players reach their potential they only have average to decent careers as opposed to great careers.
If beachy continues to progress and and adjust, with his stuff, he will have a great career even though I do not think he will reach the number of seasons to buttress his numbers enough to reach the HOF, even if he does become a great pitcher.
Think about Doug Drabek and Kevin Brown…they both had very strong careers that fell just short of HOF. If Beachy were discovered at a younger age, he may have been further along in his development, but at his present age, with only one year under his belt, if he develops correctly he may put together a very serious career.
So if you think about it, my statement is not as broad as it seems.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
by Santaklose11 on Jan 10, 2012 2:38 PM EST up reply actions
should be a quote, not a strike through, oops. I'm off a bit to the left today
http://sportsandgrits.com/
This so much.
It really is no wonder why other fanbases make fun of us for overvaluing our own guys.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 3, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure this is a thing. Nor do I think this claim (if true) is unique to Braves fans.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
It's not unique to us
But it’s certainly true about us.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jan 4, 2012 1:54 AM EST up reply actions
I’ve never heard about the Braves fanbase overestimating their talent, at least compared to other fanbase, which is all that is relevant at the point taht we admit that this happens across the spectrum.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Since beach is more of a fly ball pitcher, he might have a good defense behind him with Bourn Heyward and Prado
I <3 Runz
by JHey1212 on Jan 6, 2012 2:38 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Love Beachy, and more cause he grew up 20 minutes from my hometown. I doubt he’ll ever be in cy young talk, but he doesn’t need to. I think he could be a #2 or #3, and that’s nothing to sniff at. He can be a regular 10+ game winner, but he’ll need to figure out how to get out of innings sooner.
I hope Beachy and Hanson can figure out how to pitch deeper into games.
And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT
With his ability to strike out guys plus the fact that he hasn’t been a starting pitcher for that long, you have to at least think he could be a #1. Its not likely, but its certainly possible
I <3 Runz
by JHey1212 on Jan 6, 2012 2:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
My evaluation
I was blessed with the opportunity to watch Beachy’s start at Wrigley in late August from behind home plate. He threw 97 pitches and cleared 6 innings with his only hiccup in that game really caused by overthrowing one inning hard, throwing 19 pitches of his 97 in that one inning. His fastball straightened out that inning, and he was down 3-1 to Geovanny Soto before he snapped back into the same mode he was in the rest of the game. I was sitting next to a Cubs fan old-timer, and his scouting report in a matter of words was just like mine – on his way from thrower to pitcher. He’s still learning to trust his stuff, and like the EOF article mentions, he’s with the perfect catching duo to do it.
His stuff is completely ridiculous when he simply trusts it and pitches rather than overthrowing. I had the pleasure of seeing Matt Garza pitch that day as well, and Beachy’s stuff was tons better, and Cubs fans around me were asking over and over where this guy came from. Beachy’s two curves are ridiculous when he’s relaxed with his fastball because everything has such great movement. I would say his fastball is his key. He can generate grounders and strikeouts with it when he’s pitching rather than throwing. The game I saw, he had settled in and was pitching well in the 6th. I think he could have gone at least one more inning, but I do think facing 7-8-9 for Vizcaino in that game was valuable as well.
I was going to type it up in my follow up articles, but there didn’t seem a ton of interest in them, so I didn’t finish them. Beachy to me is one of our most valuable pitching assets because his arm is so unused, his motion is so fluid, and his stuff is so ridiculous. He’ll be under team control for a significant time, and if the team around him (Roger, McCann, Ross) can continue to encourage his growth and maturity from a grip and rip to a true pitcher, we could be looking at a potential ace.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 3, 2012 9:34 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
As a fan... This is how I see it
Hanson is the Hanson we were hyped about his rookie year
he wins 17 games with a 2.9 ERA with 210 innings w 200 Ks
JJ is his healthy self all season
he wins 10 games with a 2.5 ERA in the first half
Hudson pitches well but not a career year
he wins 15 games with a 3.3 ERA and 220 Innings
Beachy keeps ascending
he wins 14 games with a 3.25 ERA and 185 innings w 200 Ks – (sub 3 first half ERA)
Teheran brings the electricity
Wins some games with a sub 3 first half ERA
JJ gets traded mid season for a key piece and prospects
Minor and/or Delgado fill in masterfully
Kimbrel has a repeat season
Venters has a repeat season and his pitch is redeclared the best in baseball
Oflahrity has a repeat season and gets as much attention has K and V last year
Vizcaino drops his ERA below 3 and strikes out 11 per 9
Medlen is a bulldog with a sub 3 ERA, his change up is declared one of baseballs best
Whoever else gets the call has a sub 3 ERA and a 70% GB rate
We have 3 allstars in baseballs best bullpen
We have 2 allstars and an acknowledged snub from the rotation
Teheran wins rookie of the year
Hanson and JJ get Cy votes
Beachy has us drooling over his career to come
As a fan… that’s how I see it playing out
Also
I marry a supermodel, win the lottery, and fly in a private jet to see the Braves every game they play in 2012.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jan 4, 2012 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Well if you won the lottery first methinks it might be easier to rangle that supermodel.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
with a w
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
True, my order is off a bit
…all still with similar likelihood of the entirety of the post I was replying to coming to fruition.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
I bet you can get the supermodel before the Braves season-tickets/corresponding air-fare before you get the supermodel (Dibs on Kate Upton) but only if it happens in the off-season and if you have your priorities straight. Not to mention that the initial air-fare to get to Supermodeltownville, which is 1 jigawatts of wampum, requires some serious currency exchanges.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Luckily I live in the Dakotas, so I have wampum readily available
I prefer to avoid the Pine Ridge res, though, as their exchange rates are killer.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
not to mention that winning the lottery
helps your chances of bein able to fly in a private jet to see the Braves every game they play in 2012…
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones
http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/
Perhaps the money came with the supermodel.
Winning the lottery was just icing on the cake.
O come on Ben...
I did t say it would happen did I? In fact it should be obvious what I was doing… I said as a fan at the beginning AND at the end of the post, which should pretty obviously communicate exaggerated fan love for my boys. If you can’t have that kind of fan love I am sorry…what’s the fun of having a favorite team if you can’t be a homer? And honestly, on an individual basis, every one of those quasi projections is hopefully reasonable…I just dared to dream that it all clicks long enough for a post. .
Your fellow posters are basically just unyielding cynically hardcore realists … no dreaming, flights of fantastical future happenings, or other rainbow chasing are very welcome around these parts.
All of this while our offense still struggles to put up more than 2-3 runs a game
by drumzalicious on Jan 8, 2012 2:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Beachy is not as good as Jurrjens, Hanson, Hudson...
But, I believe he has more Cy Young potential in him than all of those players. It would take 35 starts and an ERA under 2.60. With that, he could be tops in the majors in K’s.
Its just that I don’t think he is capable of those numbers. I believe the injury bug can hit him at any time.
I can't believe this username was vaild
by Atlanta Braves Fan on Jan 9, 2012 1:30 AM EST reply actions
His injury risk
…is certainly no more than any of the other pitchers in our staff, all of whom have had serious injury in the recent past that caused them to miss time, Hanson and Jurrjens just last season and Huddy in 2009. Beachy’s lack of wear on his arm is also in his favor as far as the injury bug goes, especially with proper coaching to pitch, rather than throw.
I’d like to know what you base your evaluation of Beachy on.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
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