Martin Prado's down year = Just doing what he's told

by ryan c on Sep 21, 2011 12:23 PM EDT

My favorite player on the team is still Martin Prado. At the first of the year, Chipper said that he knew Martin wouldn’t have trouble being a capable, even good left fielder, but he thought that Martin might have a mental adjustment to make. From my understanding, Martin has a lot of energy and at 2b, was involved in almost every defensive play (somehow). Anyone think that this mental adjustment might have made it’s way over to the plate?

I have a different theory…
Martin is a perfectionist, but more than this, he is a "team player" aka "coach pleaser". He has taken the role of a #2 hitter and has simply put “productive outs” as his main goal instead of actual production (as I’m sure this was the advice given to him in the #2 spot). His HR and BB rates are about the same, but his singles and doubles are down about 25%. More striking is his strikeout rate. Martin has always been a hard guy to K but this year he’s only striking out 9% of his plate appearances compared to 13% last year.

His numbers in the 2-hole this year match the theory:
261 plate appearances .243 BA and only 4HR, but, get this…only 12 strikeouts (striking out only 4 1/2% of the time)

Compared to his leadoff numbers:
245 plate appearances .283 batting average 7HR and 28 strikeouts(11 1/2%)

His walk rates in both spots are about the same, but Martin Prado has done exactly what he was told to do in the #2 spot: put the ball in play (231 times out of 243 chances {95.5%})

I ask you this…Which Prado do you want in your lineup?

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Prado shouldn't get the 2nd most at bats on the team, yo

by another simpsons avatar on Sep 21, 2011 12:35 PM EDT reply actions

agreed

by Braves Biceps on Sep 21, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Watching the games makes this seem really obvious.

Prado has always been a see-the-ball hit-the-ball guy to the extent that he will swing if he thinks he can hit it somewhere, even if not particularly well, hence the relatively low career walk rate.

However, especially after we got Bourn, Prado’s approach has been largely to poke or bounce the ball the other way. With a man on second and none out, this makes sense. However, he’s been doing this all the time, even when there’s no one on base. Lately he’s started to wrap around the ball a little more or at least focus on hitting hard liners to right, which is better.

I don’t know how hard it is for players, or Martin, to make mental adjustments about when to take what approach at the plate, but obviously he should be trying to put it together: aim for productive outs in the right situation, and aim to hit a ball hard into a gap at others.

I’m sure he’ll put it together.

by Ivan the Great on Sep 21, 2011 1:05 PM EDT reply actions

Love Martin Prado, one of my favorite players right now. He’ll right the ship.

And it's now my sig
by Bronn on May 17, 2011 4:56 PM EDT

by Sparhawk on Sep 21, 2011 2:20 PM EDT reply actions

I don't think that's it at all.

One more single in four more games @ 2nd, and he’s hitting more doubles at a higher rate in the second spot.

As far as the strikeouts are concerned, he’s been below his career norms all year long, it had been dropping all year prior to September, and he was at a 6% K rate in July before Bourn even arrived.

Since Prado doesn’t walk much, BABIP plays highly into his success. What you see is a poor LD% and BABIP in August along with a higher FB rate rather than GB rate…that doesn’t suggest slapping the ball around.

He’s just not been hitting the ball well recently. His spot in the order has very little to do with it.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Sep 21, 2011 3:24 PM EDT reply actions

I think that a drop from about a 11% career K rate to a 4 1/2% K rate this year in the 2 hole has to be a pretty big eye opener. Is it not possible that his poor BABIP results from “making contact” instead of trying to square up a ball.? This, to me, is completely obvious in a 2 strike count as the stats above show.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Sep 21, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Slap-hitting doesn’t generally result in a higher FB rate. In fact, it leads to the opposite.

As for making contact is concerned, his swing profile is more or less the same as last year. There a slight 2% bump is swings at pitches outside the zone, but in-zone swings are basically the same and the overall swing percentage is less than 1% different. His contact % has changed just 0.2% from the previous year. Swinging strikes are the same percentage as well.

The results, insofar as K% is concerned, has changed. But his swinging habits have not.

Bear in mind, I’m not saying you’re 100% wrong, or even 25%. I think there’s probably a nugget of truth in there, at the very least. But I also don’t think the evidence available conclusively supports your argument by any measurable standard. The results align with your argument, but that is not proof of the argument itself. Correlation does not imply causation.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Sep 21, 2011 7:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Doesn't make sense

Lol, just look at the Kid’s avg, Slick. - Chief Noc-A-Homa
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by lingsched on Sep 21, 2011 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

so, no debate or facts? just doesn't make sense? that's all you got? really?

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Sep 21, 2011 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions

hmmmmmm……..

by Braves Biceps on Sep 21, 2011 10:49 PM EDT up reply actions

I think it’s more regression to the mean.

Prado is not as good as he looked last year – just like Infante.

My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.

by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 21, 2011 10:45 PM EDT reply actions

I think he just hasn’t had a good offensive year and we are not going to be able to determine exactly why. However, it is obvious that he’s not been anywhere near the same consistently productive hitter that he was in 2008-2010. Being bounced to LF and then back and forth between LF and 3B, and shifted around in the lineup could have been factors. Of course, he’s also missed 34 games with injuries and played at less than 100% in we don’t know how many other games. Rather than being a “coach pleaser,” he is in my view more of a “gamer,” a player who will go out there without complaints and give whatever he has got any given day; and so my theory is that being banged up and not in synch physically throughout large parts of the season could be the best explanation for his down year.

by fandave on Sep 22, 2011 7:26 AM EDT reply actions

Prado needs to bat lower in the order

They tried him 2nd last year forever as well, nada….. Move him lower in the order, the switch flips on.

We had it figured out briefly with Chipper batting 2nd (or 3rd really) but then quickly moved Prado back in the 2 hole and started losing again.

It’s not rocket science…..apparently it is, for some people….Fredi. Yes, we would love him to bat 2nd, but he bats better lower in the order.

"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
Gaby Sanchez - 1, Nyjer Morgan - 0

by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Sep 22, 2011 11:51 AM EDT reply actions

Martin is a....

Super baseball player. The fact is, that he missed over a month after raising his batting average 25 points from a slow start to the year. I would go to war with 8 Prado’s every single season.

by mikie baseball on Sep 24, 2011 1:19 PM EDT reply actions