One Of The 10 Greatest Pitching Seasons Ever

by Jacob Peterson on Sep 1, 2011 2:19 PM EDT

... or close to it, anyway. Let's see if you can guess who put up these numbers:

201 innings pitched
248 strikeouts
64 unintentional walks
127 hits allowed
only 4 home runs allowed
1.39 ERA (277 ERA+)
2.05 FIP
+9.5 Win Probability Added
+9.3 WAR (Baseball-Reference version)

That's quite a year. This season ranks 2nd all-time in WPA behind only Dwight Gooden's transcendent 1985. It's also second all-time in ERA, behind Bob Gibson's legendary 1968 and 2nd in ERA+ to Pedro Martinez's ridiculous 2000 season.

This season ranks 8th in hits per 9 innings (5.69 H/9), plus the top 20 in brWAR, strikeouts per 9 innings (at 11.1 K/9), and several other stats. That low-2 FIP is also very impressive, though FanGraphs doesn't let you search for the best FIP seasons of all time, so I don't know where it ranks.

The one real weakness of this season is the relatively low innings total, which holds back some of the counting stats. But that's okay, because this season isn't done yet. There's still a month to go. Extrapolating to the end of the season, we could see 241 IP, 298 strikeouts, +11.1 brWAR, and +11.4 WPA. That would rank 4th all-time in brWAR and 1st (by a mile) in WPA.

The last paragraph provides a pretty big hint. The answer is after the jump.

OK, so it was kind of a trick. This "season" was put up by not one, but three pitchers: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty. It's still in progress, obviously, so the numbers above could just as easily get worse as get better. Regardless, though, combining their numbers and comparing them to those of great starting pitcher seasons really helps put in perspective just how historically phenomenal those 3 guys have been in the back end of the Braves' bullpen.

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O'Ventbrel for Cy Young!

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Sep 1, 2011 2:24 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Rise

And the Lord said Ya Gotta Rise UP!!!

by Sevenpointthree on Sep 1, 2011 2:25 PM EDT reply actions

I was so prepared to jump up and scream GREG MADDUX

My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.

by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 1, 2011 2:39 PM EDT reply actions

the strikeout total told me it wasn't Maddux

by nuftjedi on Sep 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

and the walks

DFA Heyward. I'm dead serious
by wpf3211 on Aug 6, 2011 9:11 PM EDT

by leedawg on Sep 1, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Maddux

Never got above 7.5k/9 as a brave, i believe

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Sep 1, 2011 2:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I was prepared to jump up and Scream JOHN SMOLTZ

……and then I saw “This season”

All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,

by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT

Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/

by Santaklose11 on Sep 1, 2011 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions

I was prepared to jump up and say Scott Proctor

by ChoppingTalk on Sep 1, 2011 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions

HAHAHAHAHAH

All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,

by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT

Strong Side / Weak Side: Chipper Jones

http://www.onionsportsnetwork.com/articles/chipper-jones,8431/

by Santaklose11 on Sep 1, 2011 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions

Speak of the devil

he was called up by the Yankees today

"What happened yesterday is history. What happens tomorrow is a mystery. What we do today makes a difference - the precious present moment."- Nick Saban

by Richie Grogan on Sep 1, 2011 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, it looks very much like his 1995 season

But too many strikeouts, and too many walks.

My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.

by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT

by Bronn on Sep 1, 2011 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions

The whole “2nd only to Pedro” line is what convinced me it was Maddux. I thought to myself “well, I guess he walked a few more and struck out a lot more than I remember”

lol

My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.

by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Sep 1, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I was gonna say Maddux, until it said the season wasn’t done yet. At that point the answer became obvious: O’VentBrel.

"I Farted" - Me, everday

by HeyMikey on Sep 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT reply actions

FIP rank

It looks like the 2.05 FIP would be a tie for 90th all-time among seasons with at least 200 IP.
Here’s the leaderboard with seasons split, just sort by FIP.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=200&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1

by ElJosharino on Sep 1, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions

8th

Not counting the dead ball era.

by danielduello on Sep 1, 2011 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions

From 1920 to present

It seems like if you look at FIP-, it ranks somewhere around 70th.

My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.

by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT

by Bronn on Sep 1, 2011 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions

Kimbrell

I have been curious if there is a precedent for his performance in one specific category. At the beginning of the year, there were definite concerns about his control - lots of walks. There was good reason for this concern:

2009 (A-AAA levels): 76.1 innings, 50 walks. (5.9 BB/9)
2010 (AAA): 55.2 innings, 35 walks. (5.66 BB/9)
2010 (Atlanta): 20.2 innings, 16 walks. (6.97 BB/9)

Certainly enough to be worrisome.

Enter 2011: 65.2 innings. 25 walks. (3.43 walks per 9IP)

Where did THAT come from?? It isn’t like he’s throttling his fastball (hardly) to gain better control…. his K/9 rate is still ridiculous, and consistent with every level he’s pitched at. But the walk rate is lower than any level in which he had more than 20 innings in a season.

I’d like to see if there is precedent for a pitcher cutting a walk rate in half like this (and I don’t mean from 2.0 to 1.0 or something like that). That’s impressive… and probably a significant reason for his success.

"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11

by carpengui on Sep 1, 2011 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

One more thing: strikeout rates

On fangraphs, Randy Johnson is shown as the career “K/9” leader of those qualifying… which I think requires 1000 innings. The rankings are:

Johnson (10.61 K/9)
Kerry Wood (10.35)
Pedro (10.04)
Nolan Ryan (9.55)

Braves’ relievers are collectively tying to make a mockery of that chart. Check this out:

Varvaro (16)
Kimbrel (14.66 – ha!, he’s not even leading the team!)
Moylan (12.46)
Gearrin (12.27)
Vizzy (10.97)
Beach (10.08)
Venters (9.87)

Throw in 2010 figures, just for fun:

Kimbrel (17.42 – that’s just nuts)
Wagner (13.50)
Mike Dunn (12.79 over 19 innings)
Saito (11.50 – remember him?)
Farnsworth (11.25)
Venters (10.08)

Collectively: White Sox relievers are striking hitters out at a 9.6 per 9ip rate. Braves are 2nd at 9.59. Next closest? Giants at 8.33. Phillies? way back – 7.82 (essentially equal to their starters).

"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11

by carpengui on Sep 1, 2011 3:30 PM EDT reply actions

MLB Channel just highlighted this

The feature was about the new nasty boys….they had a small feature on all of these numbers. Respect!!!

by supyoscn on Sep 1, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions

With those numbers- they should be promoted to Road Warriors.

by Broccoman on Sep 1, 2011 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I knew the answer immediately when I saw the numbers because I saw the MLB segment also. I love how they called them the new “nasty boys”. It was a hands agreement that these 3 were far an away the best 3 man pen in baseball. It really highlights just how dominate these guys have been when you combine the stats. Awesome.

by TREY JACKSON on Sep 1, 2011 8:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I demand my unspeakably awesome graph

Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.

by GumpBrave on Sep 1, 2011 5:39 PM EDT reply actions