Looking Ahead to 2012 Outfield Spot
Much has been debated about Chipper's future with the Braves. In this Fan Post, I was hoping to take a look ahead to next year's outfield free agent class in order to speculate on possible additions in case Chipper does indeed retire. As it has been stated, we are clearing a decent chuck of salary next year and hopefully we are able to get rid of Lowe. One aspect I won't cover is a possible trade for an outfielder that includes Lowe or anyone else. So without further ado.....your free agent class of 2012.
Stars indicate a 2012 option for the players. I will also post current 2011 BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS and whether they hit right handed or left.
Outfielders
Bobby Abreu LAA *
| .261 | .376 | .351 | .727 L |
Rick Ankiel WAS
| .241 | .304 | .375 | .679 | L |
Carlos Beltran NYM
| .283 | .382 | .497 | .879 S |
Milton Bradley SEA
| .218 | .313 | .356 | .669 S |
Pat Burrell SF
| .233 | .342 | .419 | .760 R |
Mike Cameron BOS
| .166 | .256 | .318 | .574 R |
Coco Crisp OAK
| .274 | .331 | .389 | .720 S |
Michael Cuddyer MIN
| .300 | .371 | .479 | .850 R |
Jack Cust SEA
| .213 | .344 | .329 | .673 | L |
Johnny Damon TB
| .270 | .322 | .406 | .727 L |
David DeJesus OAK
| .225 | .309 | .340 | .649 L |
J.D. Drew BOS
| .219 | .317 | .305 | .622 L |
Jeff Francoeur KC *
don't care
Kosuke Fukudome CHC
| .267 | .364 | .360 | .724 L |
Jonny Gomes CIN
| .213 | .339 | .400 | .739 R |
Gabe Gross OAK
| .239 | .290 | .311 | .601 L |
| .284 | .321 | .403 | .723 | R |
Carlos Guillen DET
| .264 | .293 | .434 | .727 | S |
Scott Hairston NYM
| .275 | .345 | .559 | .904 R |
Willie Harris NYM
| .238 | .343 | .318 | .661 L |
Raul Ibanez PHI
Don't care he is infected
Conor Jackson OAK
| .261 | .330 | .352 | .682 R |
Andruw Jones NYY
| .228 | .318 | .439 | .756 | R |
Austin Kearns CLE
| .214 | .313 | .307 | .620 R |
Jason Kubel MIN
| .306 | .358 | .455 | .813 | L |
Ryan Ludwick SD
| .235 | .300 | .368 | .669 R |
Hideki Matsui OAK
| .264 | .336 | .407 | .743 | L |
Nate McLouth ATL *
No...just no
Jason Michaels HOU
| .198 | .250 | .293 | .543 R |
Laynce Nix WAS
| .267 | .307 | .490 | .797 L |
Magglio Ordonez DET
| .236 | .296 | .314 | .610 R |
Juan Pierre CWS
| .275 | .330 | .323 | .653 | L |
Juan Rivera TOR
| .254 | .308 | .378 | .686 R |
Cody Ross SF
| .248 | .339 | .400 | .739 R |
Grady Sizemore CLE *
| .237 | .304 | .466 | .769 | L |
Matt Stairs WAS
| .154 | .257 | .169 | .426 L seriously??? 169 slug??? |
Nick Swisher NYY *
| .244 | .360 | .428 | .788 As Left Handed |
| .324 | .417 | .476 | .894 As Right Handed |
|
|
Marcus Thames LAD
| .197 | .243 | .333 | .576 R |
Josh Willingham OAK
| .248 | .331 | .451 | .782 R |
So, there are the options. Rosterbate to your hearts content.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
106 comments
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Comments
This was my first fanpost
so comments are welcome as well
On the post itself:
Formatting needs some major work, although it’s not entirely unreadable, it shouldn’t take up half the space that it did because of poor table spacing.
The biggest issue I have with the whole thing is this: there is a nonzero chance that Chipper retires, but it is very little more than zero, likely single digits if I were a betting man. This post essentially has us dreaming on a situation that very likely will not happen, in contrast to something like our SS position – where Gonzo is a free agent and Pastornicky is attempting to show he deserves a spring training shot. That’s at least something to post about that has legit implications on 2012. We’re also still in the August trade deadline period, so we could acquire someone that solves that issue altogether for us, making all of this moot.
Last, we have an active rosterbation post. We keep one going at a time. Encouraging people to rosterbate in your post is a great way to have it disappear.
Some constructive criticism for you, but it is a talking point that some find intriguing, so some will certainly respond to the premise.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
I would LOVE to get Swisher to play LF for us
Seems like a Braves guy to me.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 4, 2011 3:22 AM EDT reply actions
This
I hoped we would get him in exchange for Vazquez before last year but he would be a solid addition to the OF.
by DreamWithinADream on Aug 4, 2011 3:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Swisher, Cuddyer, and Beltran
are really the only interesting names on the list
by DreamWithinADream on Aug 4, 2011 3:25 AM EDT reply actions
I'd like Quinten
The guy seems to produce on an average to slightly above average team . Since 2008 ….
2008:130 games , .288/.394/.571 , 36 hr, 100 rbi , OPS .965
2009:99 games , .236/.323/.456 , 21 hr , 56 rbi , OPS .779
2010:131 games , .243/.342/.479 , 26 hr , 87 rbi , OPS .821
this season:102 games , .259/.346/.501 , 21 hr , 66 rbi , OPS .847
I could live with those numbers .
No
He’s the second worst outfielder in the major leagues right now, and he is about as durable as Chipper Jones.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Second worst DEFENSIVE outfielder, that is
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
If not him
then I would take Swisher . Great attitude and clubhouse guy . He would also add some postseason experience to the team .
I doubt Swisher will hit free agency. He has only a $10.25M option, and that’s a mere pittance in comparison to his value provided to the Yankees. Heck, that’s only like a week of A-Rod and Jeter’s salaries!
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Not Kubel?
I would consider him to be close to equal on Swisher, but Cuddyer or Swisher would also fill the whole nicely.
How well would Costanza have to perform to be a possibility for the future?
Kubel would struggle in the NL
His best position is hitter. The Braves made it clear at the deadline that they value defense, and I think you’ll see whomever they get having to play at least solid LF defense. Cuddyer and Swisher would be borderline in that aspect, but Cuddyer would provide the RH bat that offsets the rest of our lineup. Kubel is a LH hitter, and he’s a very poor fielder, even though it looks a little better since he’s not the worst on his team, but being a better defender than Delmon Young is akin to stating that you’re a better hitter than Mario Mendoza.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
How well would Costanza have to perform to be a possibility for the future?
Well, he’s a LH no-power bat with speed and (from what I’ve seen) below average defense. We have a much, much better version of him in center for the next 14 months. He’d have to be spectacular to even be on our bench in April.
I think that Cuddyer is the most reasonable guy out of that group. He’s RH, has power, hits for average and wouldn’t come at a huge price.
Bourn, Prado, Heap, Uggla, Freeman, Cuddyer, Heyward, SS. Looks good to me.
If Costanza plays well...
I could see him working towaqrds say 4th OF status, especially with us having Hisnke for power in the corners. But no more than that.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I thought the line was....
“Never underestimate the predictability of stupidity”
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I believe we will be making room for two pitchers ( Mike & Julio).
So it is my honest opinion that our new left fielder will come through trade.It’s hard to speculate on signing an of’er, when we know Braves management won’t spend big believing it’s core for 2012 is already in place ( McCann, Heyward, Freeman, Prado, Bourn, & Uggla). This core with out a major short falling will have the 1, 3,4,5,6, and 2 or 7 hole wrapped up. So the big money names on the list are not realistic. I could see a one year deal for a guy like Coco if they can’t get what they want through trade. But I could also see them starting the year with Wilkin in LF if they can find what they want through trade. The reason I said Wilkin over Castanza, is simply balance to the line-up. Castanza could be the 4th and play when match-up indicates.
CF Bourn
SS Pastornickey……….. WHile I didn’t think he would be ready, the kid is hitting over .400 at AAA
McCann…………………….
Uggla
Freeman
Prado……………………… Would love to see him hit in an RBI spot. Also put Pastornicky’s speed at the top.
Heyward……………… He will bounce back, but for now this is a fair spot for him
Ramirez
Pitcher.
An untested rookie...
…who has looked good in a ridiculously small sample size in AAA shouldn’t hit second. That spot in the lineup is too important. I can’t imagine the Braves letting Wilkin start, and Chipper isn’t in your lineup (and is certainly better than Wilkin and isn’t going to retire).
Hmmmmm
Raffy Furcal had never even hit AA pitching when he won the starting job in 2000, and he ended up the primary leadoff hitter for the team. Now the way they handled that with him splitting starts often with Walt Weiss was very good to not let him get overwhelmed with his first experience in the league, but it’s not unheard of that not only would Pastornicky start, but that he’d hit high in the order.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
I actually think the second spot in the order is an ideal place to put rookies because I believe it is one of the lineup spots where guys will see the most good pitches to hit. Taking buys who are used to batting higher in the order and then sticking them in lower spots in the lineup when they get promoted is just another way to disorient them in an already disorienting situation.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
Yep, Did Jason play at AAA?
The 2 spot in the order needs to be used as a 2nd lead-off and to move the lead-off man over, both of which Pastornicky can do. I’d much rather have Pastornicky taking pitches giving Bourn a chance to run. I’d much rather have Pastornickey bunting than Prado. Give Prado a chance to hit with RISP. It also puts alot of speed at the top. With every hit the kid gets at AAA, the less likely a return is for Alex.
Also, you got to start reading it all….. I said from the start I thought we would get our LF’er through trade, but I played out the senario as is. This is based on Chipper retiring. Wilkin has done well for what he’s benn asked to do and it’s the cheap way to go. The kid has talent. When is the last time the Braves have been big spenders hitter wise in FA? Don’t expect that to change.
Okay.......
Finnaly found it 3 games at AAA in 2009 and 2 games in 2011.
In 2009...
…they moved him up to AAA for the playoffs because Mississippi’s season was finished. He played three games because they got swept. The two games this year was just a rehab assignment and doesn’t really count. He had essentially no time in AAA, but showed he didn’t need it by posting an OBP of nearly .400 in the majors in 2010.
Still, as cbwilk loves to point out...
insignificant or not, the list of players called up who had played 0 games in AAA is pretty short.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Since 1990 for the Braves the following have had their first cup of Braves coffee without a AAA appearance:
Javy Lopez
Mark DeRosa
Kevin McGlinchy (one of the bigger tragedies of recent Braves pitching history – look at that career MLB performance…shame he never recovered)
Wilson Betemit
Ryan Langerhans
Horacio Ramirez
Jung Bong
Jeff Francoeur
Brian McCann
Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Jose Ascanio
Jair Jurrjens
Jordan Schafer
Kenshin Kawakami
Not an empty list.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
seriously? KK?
He came from Japan so he doesn’t count
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Aug 4, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yunel came from pro leagues in Cuba
…and he still played AAA
I also didn’t include Raffy Furcal since I’d already mentioned him.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
No, not empty, but still pretty slim over 20 years...
and several were pitchers called up for a spot start or needed relief help.
Did Randall Delgado have a AAA appearance before his spot start this year? And I thought Furcal went straight from A+ the season before to starting SS? Still, as implied above, it’s not unheard of, but it’s far from common.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
See above
I didn’t include Furcal because I mentioned him before
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Got it...
but Delgado would need to be included too, as he didn’t make a AAA start before we called him up in the spot start earlier this year.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
True
I didn’t include this year yet, simply because the season isn’t completed.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Lopez: Good
DeRosa: Decent
Betemit: Bad, with us
Langerhans: LOL
Ramirez: LOL
Bong: bad
Francoeur: Looked good then went downhill
McCann: Great
Saltalamacchia: Blocked, good backup
Ascanio: not good
Jurrjens: Good
Schafer: not good, but not bad
KK: Horrible
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Aug 4, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude don't get caught up in that.
Dude likes to follow me around because I proved him wrong. I asked a question. Answered it myself, found out he played in 3 games. For once dude did his home work, congrats!
proved me wrong? When?
although in this instance, you’re being a bit full of yourself. you asked a question, I answered for you. Simple as that.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Oh, that's right....
proving how Austin Jackson’s 1-4 day to open the season on March 31 meant he had a bad first two months this year, not just a bad first month. Yeah, you really got me on that one.
/mdwm
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
LOL
And that the numbers where similar! Man just cut it out. You have followed me enough. I ignored you, but you just continue. Cyber bulling? Really! Let it go dawg!
Which I said was true,...
until you take out Jackson’s slow start, at which point it’s obvious who the better player is.
And cyber bullying? What are you, 14?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Following?
this is the first exchange we’ve had since that stupidity about Jackson’s 1 game in March and bad April constituting 2 bad months. And again, you asked the question, I answered. Simple as that. The rest is getting tiring, but ignore indeed.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
IDK One arm, I maybe can see. But 2 top 10 arms in the Braves system, seems a bit much to me. Clemens is a lot better than some think. I don’t think Minor is an ace on our staff, but he would be the top pitching prospect for a lot of teams. SO giving up both, plus a throw in? I don’t think I would.
by SB75 on Jul 25, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions
.
the arrows are confusing when you don’t reply properly http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 25, 2011 5:47 AM PDT up reply actions
BP Help? Braves Eyeing Rauch, Frasor
By Tim Dierkes [July 26 at 1:08pm CST]
The Braves "will continue to evaluate the possibility of acquiring either Jon Rauch or Jason Frasor from the Blue Jays," writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Bowman notes that the Jays want a significant return for either reliever, since they both project as Type B free agents and therefore could net supplemental draft picks. Both righties also have club options for 2012 at $3.75MM, so they’re more than rentals.
The Braves’ bullpen is fourth
in the NL with a 3.08 ERA, but the group also ranks third with 319 innings pitched.
by SB75 on Jul 26, 2011 11:29 AM PDT reply actions
.
Quick there’s a thread from 3 days agao without this copy and pasted in it! http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 26, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Just two examples of you being an azz. So now you’re not just an azz but a liar to. Why can’t you just let it go?
.
context?

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Aug 5, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
A couple of points:
1. Still a small sample size to annoint Pastornicky a great prospect, no less our #2 hitter for next year.
2. The scenario is silly, Chipper isn’t going to retire. I know, this isn’t your fault or point. This whole thread is silly.
3. The #2 spot should not be used for moving runners over or bunting. Ughhh. You want your best or second best hitter at the #2 slot. (The most important spots in the batting order are 1, 2, and 4.) To me, Prado is a great #2 hitter; he has a solid OBP that is mostly based on hits (you want your walks guy first and your hits guy second so the leadoff man can go first to third sometimes, which you can’t do on a walk.)
4. As for Heyward and AAA, that is irrelevant. Heyward was light years ahead of Pastornicky as a prospect. I just hope Pastornicky becomes a useful major league player. Expecting him to be good enough to bat second is still a stretch to me.
My reply.
1) Man I don’t argue sample size, it has no meaning. It’s and arbitrary number used to try and prove ones point. What is enough of a sample siza? Ask 10 guys for the number and you’ll likely have at least 5 different answers. All we know is what he’s doing now and he’s doing one heck of a job. Players are skipping AAA all together these days, so I don’t see that as a big of a deal as you do. The track record is laid.
Kelly Johnson had somewhere around 50 ( give or take a few) AAA starts and hit 1rst and 2nd as a rookie in 2005.
Jason Heyward had 3 AAA games and hit 2nd as a rookie.
Yunel Escobar had 47 AAA games and hit 1rst and 2nd as an Atlanta rookie.
Just saying man, it’s been done.
2) Chipper is Farve like, No one truly know’s what he’s going to do. Their are fans for his return and against it. Neither side has the right answer, only Chipper. I don’t think the thread is silly, because we have to speculate on what will happen if he does hang them up. If he doesn’t it becomes mute, but we do have to consieder it.
3) I dissagree! If Bourn gets on in the first inning would you rather have him bunted over to 2nd and give your 3 and 4 hitters a chance with a RISP. or Prado swing with a chance at a double play? Also this kid gets on he can do something Prado hasn’t done well. Steal bases. To me most important 1,3, and 4.
4) No doubt Jason was a better prospect. But they have been calling Pastornickey a top of the line-up hitter. A table setter if you will. I’d rather have Prado driving in runs than setting the table.
If Bourn gets on in the first inning would you rather have him bunted over to 2nd and give your 3 and 4 hitters a chance with a RISP. or Prado swing with a chance at a double play?
Teams only get 3 outs per inning. It’s a pretty stupid idea to give any of them away. In my opinion, sac bunting should only be done when the pitcher is at bat with a guy on 1st and less than 2 outs. Also, stolen bases are really an overrated stat. Unless a guy is successful at a 85% clip, it’s usually not worth the risk. Guys like Bourn, Utley, Crawford are excellent base stealers because they don’t get caught a lot.
So why bunt Bourn over when numbers show he can steal it anyway
and you get the same man on second, but with 0 outs.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Fatvirus......
With the trouble we have had scoring, an early run would help take the lid off the jar. If we had some one capable of laying down the bunt, I would do so. If bourn steals a bunt over to 3B would mean we don’t even need a run to score. And the bigger part that I mentioned is , I’d rather have Pastornicky taking pitches for bourn to run on than Prado. I’d rather have Prado hitting with RISP.
I don’t believe SB’s are over rated. I don’t believe you have to steal at 85%, although I do agree it needs to be 70% or above.
we don’t even need a run to score
Haha.. I know you meant Hit, but still funny.
Haha.. I know you meant Hit, but still funny.I wouldn’t argue with Prado hitting further down in the order. He seems like a great #6 guy in the lineup. To me, Jason Heyward should be the guy hitting second going forward. I know that he’s struggled this year a lot, but he walks, has speed and power. Perfect #2 hitter.
Haha.. I know you meant Hit, but still funny.I wouldn’t argue with Prado hitting further down in the order. He seems like a great #6 guy in the lineup. To me, Jason Heyward should be the guy hitting second going forward. I know that he’s struggled this year a lot, but he walks, has speed and power. Perfect #2 hitter.Yeah, 85% was an exaggeration.
Haha
Yep, that’s what I meat! I still think Jason will be the 3 hole hitter in the future ( Maybe evn next year). He’s having a down seaon, but I think he’ll get back to what he did last year. Going forward with Jason, Brian and Freddie all being lefty’s, it’ll be interesting since F-Gon says he likes it L-R-L.
Wow, I just disagree with all of this.
1. Sure, guys come up from below all the time. And hell, if Pastornicky comes up and hits, he’ll move up the order. Look at Heyward last year and Freeman this year. Pastornicky is hardly a can’t miss great prospect like those two. Last year, he projected as a fringe regular but more likely a utility guy. He has certainly improved his outlook this year, but he is not yet the second coming. He is probably barely in our top 10 prospects right now. Hey, it happens—-Prado is a great example—-but we shouldn’t count on it.
2. Chipper is not like Farve. He has yet to announce his retirement once. No comparison there at all. The thread is silly and pointless because he won’t retire. And, for the love of God, mute means silent; moot means no longer relevant.
3. This is just horrible. Prado, in his worst year for GIDP, 2009, grounded into 17 double plays. Bourn, already this year, has lead off an inning with a single or a walk 52 times, and he did so last year 81 times. If you have the #2 bunt whenever that happens you are giving away 81 outs for the fear of losing 17 outs on double plays. That’s a ridiculously bad idea. As for lineup positions, 1, 2 & 4, are statistically the most important because they come up more often and more often with runners on. The #3 hitter comes up in important situations a lot, but it is not as important as 1, 2 & 4, because the #3 hitter comes up more often than any other hitter in the lineup in the least important situation: 2 out and nobody on.
1) Just showing you it has been done. At least 4 times in the last 7 years we have brought an un-tested ( Rookie) guy up and plugged him in the 2 hole. 3 of them without a huge amount of AAA exp. You don’t have to agree with it, but we do it. So I don’t think it’s unreasonable at all to place him there. Never said Pastornicky is a sure thing or the next Jason/Freeman. I personally think Simmons will be better at SS than he will. But we do need one next year and he’s ( Pastornicky) played well enough to stay there and maybe play now. Simmons is a few years away. It doesn’t matter where you are rated, just what you do when you get to the show. If he fails move him down.
2) Chipper became Farve like ( to me) a few years ago when he started bringing it up. If you don’t want to talk about it, don’t! Just like the Pack, the Braves can’t move on until they have a decission from Chipper. This year by year approach, doesn’t fly with me. If you think you want to play 2 more years, tell them that.
3) Not saying Prado grounds into a bunch of them, I said a chance. Also you give it away for more ab’s with RISP for 3 and 4 hitters, you forgot to add that to it. Also with Pastornicky bunting( With his speed) there is a good chance of it becoming a base hit. I just see so many more advantages with Pastornickey in the 2 hole and Prado in an RBI spot, than flipping it the other way.
4) The number 3 hitter is also what stands between a pitcher having a 1,2,3, 1rst inning. Are you using sabermetrics? If you look at the players with the most ab’s with RISP only 4 in the top 20 don’t hit 3,4,or 5.
I still don't agree.
1. You gave three examples of guys who hit high in the lineup as rookies. Heyward, however, did not hit higher than sixth until his 29th game. Yunel was relatively evenly mixed hitting at the top and the bottom of the lineup. Johnson consistently hit at the top of the lineup, I have no idea why. I don’t know why he should start at the top of the lineup and only move down if necessary instead of vice-versa when guys like Heyward and Freeman did it the other way around. I also don’t understand why you want the better hitter in Prado batting in a worse spot in the order.
2. Chipper is nowhere near Favre who announced his retirement three times and then came back and played. Chipper said once or twice that he might retire if he didn’t get better when he was really struggling early last year. I don’t recall him doing that at any other time. There is no year by year approach. Chipper signed a contract to play through next year that pays him very well. He’ll play to the extent that he is healthy enough to do so. And remember, we have no idea how much Chipper has told the Braves—-remember that Wagner signed a two year contract last year with every intention of retiring and the Braves knew it, the fans just didn’t for a month or two.
3. Bunting for a base hit is different than sac bunting and they are totally different concepts. Different types of bunts, too—-to sac, you square around and bunt it in the correct direction; for a hit you show bunt at the last possible moment and try to put it in different places. I have no problem with the right players bunting for base hits—-that’s trying to get a hit. That isn’t sac bunting. And, no, the occasional double play and the possibility of a few more AB’s with runners in scoring position (and actually, the total AB’s with RISP probably goes down with bunting because it gives up an out and reduces the total AB’s in innings with runners on base) don’t nearly make up for all of the outs you are giving up.
4. I don’t know if it is technically sabermetrics, but it is from a statistical analysis, I think by Tango. It is a scientific analysis of what spots are more important. As for 1,2,3 first innings, yes, you don’t want to have them, but that still doesn’t mean that 2 out, 0 on isn’t the least important hitting situation. It obviously is.
1) Most of Jason’s ab’s where in the 2 hole his rookie year. Yunel had 219 ab’s in the one or 2 hole, 100 total 3-9. I wouldn’t call that even. 2/3 of his ab’s came in the 1 or 2 hole his rookie year. You bat those speedy guys that can get on at the top. They have the chance to score from 1rst on a double and 2nd on a single. Johnson had okay speed, not great though. I don’t think it’s a worse spot, I think it’s where I can captilize on his hits. Prado is not going to walk alot, he’s going to hit his way on. I’d rather have the hits come after the walks, that’ll generate runs. Hit’s before walks, just puts men on. Jordan made the statement " I’m just trying to get on any way I can". I like that out of my one and two hitters. I don’t want that out of Prado, he’s to good a hitter. I want him thinking drive the ball to all fields to get those runners in, not get on base.
2) Yes there is year by year! He said it at the begining of this season, in those exact words. “I’m going to take it year by year, I’ll know when it’s time to hang them up.” I’ll see if I can find it in print, but I do remember that qoute. I remeber Wags saying it would be his last year.
3) Can bunting for a hit, not act as a sacrafice? And even if he squres around early does he more than Prado have a chance at turning it into a hit? I understand the point you are trying to make, but do understand this….. Be it bunting, taking pitches so Bourne can run, or stealing when he gets on, I just see more Flex with Pastor ( Got to shorten his name) hitting 2nd than I do Prado.
4) I’ve heard that argument before, some agree with it. I don’t. By showing who had the top RBI oppertunity’s in baseball, I’m trying to show that doesn’t really have a lot of wait to it. However that’s a totally different topic.
I still don't see it.
1. Yes, most of Jason’s AB’s were at the 2 spot last year, but he didn’t start there, he was moved there after he hit well. That’s different from starting a guy out batting second.
2. Still, it hardly makes him Favre even if he said that. He’s under contract for $13 million next year. He’ll play.
3. Yes and no. They are different plays—an attempt to bunt for a hit can end up being a sacrifice, but it has less of a chance to do so than an actual sacrifice attempt. If he squares around early and attempts to sacrifice, the infield comes in and his chances of a hit are very small; it can happen, but not very likely. Bunting for a hit is different. The bottom line is that Prado is the better hitter and should be in the more important spot in the lineup.
4. Well, we can take a while before we discuss it and give it lots of “wait.” Still, I disagree with your argument that it doesn’t have weight and I think your RBI opportunity attempt to refute it is incorrect. I am sure batters hitting third have lots of RBI opportunities. The third spot has a lot of important situations, but a lot of least important situations. It isn’t all about RBI opportunities, it is also about getting on base with noone out or one out and creating the RBI opportunities. On the whole, the third spot has less importance because the least important opportunities balance out the more important opportunities. Just because the third spot has a lot of RBI opportunities does not refute the analysis, it is actually part of the analysis.
Favre/Chipper
The description of him saying he’d be year to year is in fact anti Favre. Favre, every year, said I’m done. Only to miss camp and show up wanting to play. The equivalent would be Chipper saying the last couple winters, I’m done. Missing spring training, and then showing up in late March saying, I want 3B. He’s never done that. He’s said “year to year” and aside from the week or so span last summer, he’s always said “I’ll be back next year” when asked if that “year to year” means he’s in his last year. He’s never pulled a Favre or Foreman like “I’m done” “No I’m not” “Now I’m done” “No I’m not” “This time I’m done and I mean it” “No I don’t” yo-yoing.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
On the other hand, Chipper can't do that...
…if he officially retires, the $13 million/year contract goes away, and it is never coming back.
Cavebird.....
1) My friend you can argue the little differences, simply put all those guys I named hit 2nd in their rookie seasons. If the Braves will bat a rookie 1rst on opening day, why wouldn’t they do the same with the 2 hole. I understand, you don’t like it. That’s fine. But it has been done and will be done again.
2)That’s my opinion of the guy. Just like Farve in my opinion. The threat of retirement leaving management guessing is just as bad, if you ask me. Unlike Farve the Pack had every right to do what they did along time ago. With Chipper, it’s just hard for a mid-market team like the Braves to make big money moves without knowing what he will do.
3) Just like with Bourn the infield will likely creep in anyway with Pastor up. The threat of the bunt opens holes. Just another advantage. So the infield creeping in argument doesn’t exactly work with guys with that much speed in sac attempts, they where likely going to do that anyway. Bottom line is I want Prado’s hits coming with men on. Maybe this will help. Between the 2 of them, who do you think will have the higher OBP? Big picture, we are talking about getting on in the 2 hole, not just hits.
4) How can it be incorrect? You can go to espn and MLB leaders and look at the splits and see for your self. I’m a numbers guy, I wouldn’t lie about them. The numbers are what they are, Sabermetrics I don’t believe in.
3)
1. Yunel was not in the opening day lineup his rookie year, neither was Kelly, and Jason was hitting 7th on opening day. None of them was trusted at the top of the order on opening day.
2. Where the big difference is between Favre/Chipper is that Favre was never under contract for the next year, but he hadn’t retired either. Chipper still has a contract, and you should never, ever assume retirement with years left on a guy’s contract until the day he calls the press conference and announces it. He’s not holding management hostage. He’s holding management to exactly what they signed him to already.
4. Review cavebird’s comment. Runners on is not the same as runners in scoring position. You’re arguing an argument with a statistic that doesn’t apply.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Favre was still under contract when he retired both times, but he also went ahead and retired publicly, something Chipper has never done. The Packers traded him while he was under contract, and the Jets released him from that contract when they cut him…freeing him up to sign with Minnesota.
Also on the 2nd point, how exactly do you know that the organization doesn’t know what he’s going to do?? FW could talk with him weekly about what he’s going to do.
He may have already told FW definitively, “I’m coming back,” or, “I’m retiring.” Just because he and the Braves organization haven’t gone public with the decision does not mean they don’t know.
I seem to remember a playoff-bound team last year that choked away the final month of the season fairly badly whilst pressing to send a legend out on a high note…which team was that?? Maybe Chipper’s simply keeping his trap shut officially so lightning doesn’t strike twice in that regard.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Sorry, replying to two different people in this one post, but mostly agreeing with ben on this one.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
True with Favre, to some degree
I believe he did not have any roster bonus coming with the Jets. The Packers traded him to avoid one. By the code of NFL contracts, that’s as good as having no future contract. Once there’s no guaranteed money left to collect, the contract is essentially null, as the team has no consequences or payments if they abruptly end the contract.
Your point on the public comment of retirement is the most accurate, though. Favre publicly stated his retirement. Chip has never done that. No matter what they want to assume (or even what Chipper has said), they have to play 2012 plans with Chipper on the books until the day he goes public.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Kelly Johnson in the order...
I think we put him at the top just cause that’s where it seemed like he should go. He’s clearly shown he’s not a top of the order hitter. But when he originally came up we had Furcal, and I guess being a somewhat small in size left handed hitter, Bobby thought “ideal 2 hitter”. Then in 07 and 08 we were desperately trying to find a Furcal replacement and he became the leadoff hitter almost by default (that and again being a 2B, it probably just seemed like that’s where he should go). Everyone we tried there failed, and KJ just seemed the most natural as a lefty, decent bat, 2B, and we kept pigeonholing him, as Bobby had a tendency to do with kids (like say Klesko).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I think....
Alex will get more than a 1 year offer from another team. At the beginig of the season and for a good chunk of it, I would have agreed with you. But at this point the kid will be ready before the end of next season and at most we just need someone cheap to fill the void until the Braves are certain. I could see Pastornicey being the opening day SS with a good ST. If he has a bad one, he’ll likely start at AAA. Either way I think Alex will have gotten more than a 1 year offer before ST gets here.
Also…. I don’t see the Braves investing 3 mil on a player they know they won’t need the entire season.
Pastornicky could be ready before the end of next year...
…or not. He was good, not great, at Mississippi this year, and has been great in a 66 PA sample size so far in AAA. Last year, he hit .257/.343/.373 in high A and AA. If he goes back to hitting like that next year in AAA, I don’t think we’ll all be saying he is ready. We’ll just have to see. And if he isn’t ready, we do need someone to play short.
Personally, I don't think more time in the minors make a big difference...
he’s been in plenty, and played well. He’s had about a year of AA (last half of last year, first half of this one). He’ll either be a successful player or he won’t, but I don’t think another year in AAA will make any difference in that yeah or nay. I’d expect him up when rosters expand in September, and we’ll see how he does, with an eye towards him winning the job next spring, but he won’t be gifted it and we’ll probably sign at least some cheap vets as backups in case he falters.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
You forgot Melky .302 .337 .463 .800
I say this IF he could repeat it again next year. I mean if your putting Bradley on the list I’d rather have Frenchy, who will never come back to Atlanta, but I wouldn’t mind having Melky as a 4th OF.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
I would
Melky and Failcoeur should never see the field in a Braves uniform again. It’d be like bringing Reggie Sanders back after he left. No, no, no.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Aug 4, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
You would really prefer Bradley?
He’s a nut case. Don’t know why Melky had his worst career year in Atlanta. I don’t want to see Frenchy back here either, was just saying if it came down to Bradley or Frenchy, I don’t hate Frenchy so much that I would rather have a sociopath instead.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
It won't come down to Bradley
Never would. This organization wouldn’t do it.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
I don't believe any organization will ever take Bradley again.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
Melky had his worst career year in Atlanta because he had his fattest career year in Atlanta.
We'll trade you for Cheryl Tunt. Tome again? Still nothing?
I would Love Love Love
me some Bobby Abreu at a low cost. But his option vested for next season and I guess the need to bat him 2nd behind Prado isn’t quick the same as it was a week ago.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Good point.
Abreu is now under contract. We can also eliminate Stairs from the list. He retired today, mostly because nobody would pay him to play baseball anymore. I actually appreciate that; it is what I would do if I could ever get anyone to pay me to play baseball.
Hey Cavebird......
Out or curiosity….. If no trades are made ( which I predict will happen) and Chipper does retire, what would you do?
Hinske as an everyday LF’er? I don’t know about that. I don’t even thinks he wants to be an everyday player with his sive at this point. They list him at 6’2 235, I hghly doubt that.
Uggla in LF, could grow on me if he can field it. But what do you do at SS?
You make a trade.
We could sign someone, but with the pitching backlog, a trade makes a lot more sense. I understand you said “no trades are made” and the OP didn’t cover it, but that’s just silly. Why would I speculate on what I would do in a situation that I wouldn’t allow to happen if I had my say in it? That being said, I’d just mix and match the set of AAAA OF we have with Hinske and Conrad getting the occasional start, too. There really isn’t much else we can do—we don’t have any internal options that are major league starting caliber players.
Off season plans
1-figure out what chipper is going to do
2-trade Lowe as a salary dump
3-if chipper does retire, prado moves to 3rd and we sign one of Willingham/Ludwick/Kearns to play LF
4-either resign Alex G. Or sign Rafael Furcal to play SS
First, you forgot the ???? and profit segments of this list.
Second, if #3 comes true, this team will be hurting, terribly. How Kearns even ends up with those two in the discussion is beyond me, but Willingham/Ludwick are RH OF bench bats, not starters. You knock off Lowe’s salary, you make a run at a better outfiielder than Willingham/Ludwick if Chipper’s off the books. Now even if Chipper is still around, I would like to see an effort to acquire one of the two to patrol the bench instead of the Mather/Ramirez/Constanzas of the world.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
First don't correct me
Second they are better than you think and who is ur ideal LF. If chip does retire
LOL, you completely missed the TC meme
No, they are not good outfielders. Not at all.
Left field would be much better patrolled by someone like Cuddyer if Chipper actually retires. I would prefer to utilize Lowe plus a prospect to trade for a bat, however, because after Beltran and Cuddyer, there’s really no one that’s a FA that I’d want patrolling Atlanta’s outfield in 2012.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
If Chipper retires and we move Lowe...
I hope we get a much better LF than one of those 3.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I’d happily take Carlos Beltran on a 2-year/$25M deal if he’d go for that. Not sure if Boras will try for more and if Beltran would agree to left field, but we’ll see.
Swisher would be great but NYY will probably pick up his option. Cuddyer is really interesting, though we’d have to give up our draft picks and at least a 3-year deal. Quentin could be a fit and I’d take him for a year assuming we don’t have to give up too much.
A guy like Willingham could work if we’re running low on money, but we probably won’t be.
"It's not about me, it's about the team." - Martin Prado
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
Wow – that’s an interesting thought… I have been operating under the assumption that Beltran is in SF because that’s where Boras believes the money exists to resign him there after the season… if he actually starts hitting enough to justify that kind of deal. Personally, I keep selling short on him… I guess he’s still only 34, I just fear a ‘Jason Bay’ situation at some point.
My concerns:
(1) If Chipper reties, does Prado really have the range and glove to handle third base full time?
(2) If Chipper doesn’t, does it make more sense to trade Prado since he’s kinda out of position in LF and get decent value (Quentin-like) in return? Or maybe give Constanza a shot if he continues to rake.
I love Odarp… I just am … well, trying to figure out what to do with him.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
I still think that we aren't likely to address needs through free agency...
if we part with Lowe for scraps, maybe. But I still see our main acquisitions this winter, be they SS or LF, coming in either a package for JJ or in an undesired salary swap for Lowe.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
andre ethier.. move him to left
by Followed_By_Helly_Sf_Gnat_Bikers on Aug 5, 2011 1:54 AM EDT reply actions
When you break down the lineup for 2012, you know you’ll have 4 lefties: McCann, Freeman, Heyward and Bourn, and you know you’ll have 3 righties: Uggla, Prado and Pastornicky/ or FA SS. Another given is that Bourn and Prado will be 1 and 2. Ideally, the Braves bring a new 3B/LF (thanks to Prado’s versatility) that is either a switch hitter or pure RH that will hit between McCann and Freeman. Here are the right handed or switch hitting LF (plus the only good 3B) that are capable of hitting 4th next season:
Aramis Ramirez
Carlos Beltran
Lance Berkman
Michael Cuddyer
First off, Ramriez is a huge injury question mark. This is the first full season that he has played since 2008. And factor in he will be at least 34 next season.
Beltran, similar situation. Has had injury problems recently. When healthy, he’s perfect for the lineup. But you also factor in Scott Boras and other teams that will be bidding on him, Liberty Media can’t afford him.
Berkman on the other hand, has never had many injury problems. He has revived his career and is hitting for great power and average.
Cuddyer will in all likelihood be picked back up by the Twins. It is not a given that the Cards can/will pick up Berkman. They will do everything possible to re-sign Pujols, and may not be able to afford Berkman.
But this is not where the player pool ends for possible replacements. The Braves will have 7 MLB starting pitchers heading into next spring. They will try to move Lowe, but will have to eat the majority of that $15m. Maybe they can find someone that will pay $5m of it. The next decision is the toughest. Trade Minor and maybe another prospect or two for a big bat, or trade Jurrjens since this is highest his stock has ever been? Or another option, trade JJ and Minor together and really see what you could get. Thanks to the Braves pitching depth, the possibilties are endless. When it gets down to it, I think the Braves will get Lance Berkman or someone that no one thought was available.
I woulnt mind Berkman if he hits this way
But I totally agree it will be someone like Berkman,but don’t forget about Maghlio Ordonez,I just want someone who can hit,but what about Alexi Ramirez to play SS,he could be perfect for us even though I think we will sign either A Gon or Rafael Furcal(I have a funny feeling we will be in the mix for him)
Alexei
He is signed to a fairly team friendly deal through 2015, at which point he’ll be 34. He’s already an average defender, and that isn’t going to get better with age. I’m not sure how “perfect” he’d be for us, though. He’s a free-swinger, prone to massive streaks, doesn’t walk much, and strikes out at a fairly high rate. I’d prefer if we’re spending the money that Alexei is set to earn the next few years at SS that we get a premium defender or someone who could be counted on at the top of the order to get on base.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben

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