Freeman vs. Heyward -- The first 411 ABs
by Eminem on Aug 2, 2011 8:47 PM EDT
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Today we are comparing the young careers of Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman. Jason Heyward hit the 411 AB mark at the end of August last year. As I looked up Freddie Freeman’s stats I noticed he was right at the 411 career mark himself. So, the Braves fan in me was wondering who did better over their first career 411-at bats? Well, I broke it down for you and here are the result is some of the most major statistical hitting categories:
Jason Heyward: Vs. Freddie Freeman
411 AB’s……… Vs. 411 AB’s, Verdict Push
.277 BA……….. Vs. .289 BA, Verdict Freeman
114 H……………Vs. 119 H, Verdict Freeman
25 2B……………Vs. 26 2B, Verdict Push
16 HR……………Vs. 16 HR, Verdict Push
64 RBI…………..Vs. 53 RBI, Verdict Heyward
85 R……………..Vs. 53 R, Verdict Heyward
67 BB……………Vs. 39 BB, Verdict Heyward
104 K……………Vs. 106 K, Verdict Push
Obviously there was different circumstance for both players, Freddie was called up late last year and played sparingly and had some PH appearances and never had consistent PT over his first 24-at bats and was thrown into a playoff race for added pressure. Heyward on the other hand started the year at the start of the year. But, regardless, those are the first 411-at bats.
So, who will have a better career? Fred or Jason?
Anything surprise you about the first 411 AB’s?
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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THIS!
He is going to turn it around.
Dan Marino (13) and Steve Nash (13) will go down in history as being the greatest passers to never win the last game of the season.
not if he doesn't make an adjustment to his swing
which thus far he has been unable or unwilling to do. Right now, its long, not at all compact, and imo a slow swing with a big hole in it. I am not giving up on him, but he needs to correct those things. If its a case of him being unwilling, which I am not at all implying, its time for him to be humbled and sent down for a spell.
by BamaThrasher on Aug 3, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
I think he needs a winter off to just let it all sink in.
But it’d be nice to have him swinging good this year….we need it.
I agree, if he’s just being stubborn a message would be a good teaching tool. Send him down and let a coach deal with him.
Dan Marino (13) and Steve Nash (13) will go down in history as being the greatest passers to never win the last game of the season.
Given that the swing problems surfaced...
…after the shoulder injury, I doubt it is an issue about his being unwilling to change the swing. It is not like this was his swing last year or that he wants to make outs. I am pretty sure he would correct it if he could and I am sure he is working on it. I worry that the shoulder isn’t 100% and won’t be until next season. It would be nice if he could ever make it through May without an injury.
THIS
When everyone talks about the swing, they forget that it was fine up until the shoulder injury. I got a feeling as well that it’s still hurting him and he’s not saying anything like before. He rushed back after Chipper’s comments, because up until that point there was no time table on his return. At one point it was so numb that he could not pick up a broom at home, much less swing a bat properly! I’m hoping that it’s not some type of nerve damage not showing up on the MRI.
by carolinapillpusher on Aug 3, 2011 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Freeman will have the better career
by traderchris on Aug 2, 2011 9:44 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
hey, careful
I know Francouer couldn’t walk to save his life, and thus wound up destroying his potential….but look at what everyone projected with him and how far his athleticism (but refusal to adjust) took him. If Heyward can’t learn to adjust Freeman may well have the better career.
All I am saying is don’t laugh at people’s opinion when they are opining on the future of a player who has yet to consistently show that he can make adjustments…
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
by Santaklose11 on Aug 4, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Heyward
He has much more potential and I still think he is the better player
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
Heyward is more athletic
and when anything can happen, I’ll just take the more athletic guy.
www.jg-entertainment.com
Freeman is no slouch out there though...Heyward is definitely more athletic but still....
Dan Marino (13) and Steve Nash (13) will go down in history as being the greatest passers to never win the last game of the season.
Heyward
has much more potential than Freeman, partially because if they both hit 30 HRs, Heywards a stud Right Fielder and a good but not great 1st baseman. Heyward has a MASSIVE whole in his swing and he just gets picked apart by anyone throwing over 94.
I <3 Runz
I almost want to say Freeman will have the better career numbers solely because he will be batting behind Heyward for a good portion of his career and will have him on base in front of him. But Heyward has just had a sophomore slump. The skills that make him good are still there, he just needs to make some adjustments and get healthy in the offseason.
William Beckwith is a sleeper prospect in our organization. - yondaime4
this
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Nice close poll so far, I like that. The good thing is they both have stud potential.
by Eminem on Aug 2, 2011 11:46 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
This Freddie vs Jason
is WAY better than the one that had a movie
by Dawgs013 on Aug 2, 2011 11:48 PM EDT reply actions 4 recs
+1
Wish I would have titled it that way now, lol.
you can still change it I believe, no?
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Some good coaching is what Heyward needs.
But, will he get it? I don’t know anything about L. Parrish. Maybe Chipper is trying to help him or maybe everyone is. He’s young and maybe he’ll call Chipper’s dad for some advice. He’ll be OK. Give him some time. I just hope he doesn’t listen to everybody as that would lend itself to confusion.
Senator, we have another old saying,"Don't piss down my back and tell me it's raining." Fletcher
You left Heyward's most impressive stat (OBP) off of the list...
Go USA, Braves, BU Terriers, Irish, Caps, Skins, NU Cats, Wizards, DC United, Washington Freedom
BU Hockey: National Champions 1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009
he showed walks and hits
lol basically the same thing
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
not getting outs
are the same thing, not “basically”.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Aug 3, 2011 1:40 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah
doesn’t show HBP though!
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Freeman
Is willingness to use all parts of the field bodes well for his future.
by murph35 on Aug 3, 2011 1:39 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
I think Heyward will have a great, injury plagued career. I can see him having a 2 or 3 7 war seasons. But I think his injuries will limit his overall production.
Can I borrow your crystal ball? lol
Dan Marino (13) and Steve Nash (13) will go down in history as being the greatest passers to never win the last game of the season.
Freeman will have a better career average, but Jason will have the better overall numbers. Freeman will hit for power but he is not seen as a slugger. Heyward is a slugger therefore he will probably hit for a lower average but will hit more HRs and RBI. And when i say lower average, I see Freddie as a .290 – .300 career hitter. I see Jason at about .270 – .280 before its all over with. Both are great and very impressive either way.
I'm a king, no matter how the cards are dealt.
Freeman’s going to hit 20HR this season , something Heyward hasn’t done yet. I don’t think that’s a given.
Part of me is wondering how much Fredi’s screwing of Jason is going to mess his career up.
I would be awfully surprised if Freeman ever had a OBP as Heyward had in his rookie season. Even with a .361 BABIP — which is not very sustainable — Freeman’s is a very solid .363. He would have to improve his walk rate a ton or change something to ever have an OBP that high. And their rookie season ISO’s are comparable — .179 for Heyward and .181 for Freeman so far.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
The way this is worded, seems to indicate you are leaning toward Freeman.
Jason came in with all the hype and did nothing to bring that down. He played very well his rookie year and if not for a very, very, hot month from Buster, likely wins ROY. He did all this dealing with injury’s. He’s struggled a bit in his 2nd year, but I’m not worried. Freeman has also come in and lived up to and beyond what most expected of him in his rookie season. The kid has something in terms of aggressiveness that I don’t often see out of a rookie. In the end I think both will be multiple All-star’s, but I go with Jason. I think he will hit for more power, steal more bases, and walk more. I see both as .300+ hitters and 100 rbi players in the future.
One other factor- you gotta factor in defense RF more defensively demanding.
by Broccoman on Aug 3, 2011 10:00 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Really? The first baseman gets more touches than anybody on the diamond outside of the battery. Freddie has been thrown everything and catches almost everything. On Monday evening, Uggla finally found a way to get balls past Freddie — by throwing them in the stands (hopefully that’s done).
But in terms of defensive value to the team, I gotta think Freddie wins that comparison simply because of the saves he’s made. Heck, if you could quantify it, I wouldn’t be surprised if those saves were worth at least a quarter of a run off of each starter’s ERA.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
No
First base is the easiest position on the diamond to play. That’s why teams put their worst defender there. RF is not that much different, but it is a more difficult defensive position to play.
Major League athletes can practice to become better at scooping throws, and Freddie is very good at that. They can’t get faster by practicing running down doubles in the gap.
It's the easiest athletically, but it takes a different skill-set than the others.
Almost comparing apples to oranges. And yeah, anyone can learn to play first, but to play it great is a different story, and Freeman is going to be one of the best. His reflexes are amazing.
Dan Marino (13) and Steve Nash (13) will go down in history as being the greatest passers to never win the last game of the season.
He’s a below average first basemen defensively. It’s been stated by scouts and the metrics. I don’t see how anyone who watches the game sees it any differently either. Catching what is hit at you does not make you great, nor anywhere near one of the best. He does have quick reactions and slid scoops, but he has extremely limited range.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
Kind of disagree.
I believe that range is much less important at 1B than footwork and hands around the bag. Give me a less athletic guy that digs everything and keeps the ball out of the dugout over a more athletic guy with mediocre hands any day. There just aren’t that many balls hit that test a 1B’s range.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Why are we taking one over the other? Casey Kotchman is a plus defender. He does both. Freeman just isn’t that.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
If Kotchman had Freeman's bat he'd be making $20MM.
Rare is the guy who does both.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Who can't hit...
how many that can hit like Freeman field better?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Pujols and Votto are the only ones that immediately come to mind
(Off the top of my head, I haven’t looked at their stats) Adrian Gonzalez isn’t bad at D and neither is Texeira. Outside of those four its hard to think of a 1B that has the combination of O and D that Freeman does.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
And look at what those four are worth
all four are yearly MVP candidates…We may have a real gem on our hands with Freddie Freeman.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
The problem is that most of the things you mentioned aren’t measurable by UZR. The footwork, hands can’t be calculated, so his scoops, etc., add no value by the metric. His range is not as good as many would claim, and that’s a really big metric for 1B UZR.
That said, most will agree that UZR for 1B is pretty flawed, and should be taken with a grain of salt. Not exactly sure how good other metrics are in regards to the position, but his range will hurt him in all of them.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Exactly.
By my amateur estimation a first baseman saves about a third of a run every time he digs out a bad throw. Maybe somebody should start a scoop% stat.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
big problem is how one defines a scoop...
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Any ball that bounces?
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
So a perfect one hop
Would count positively toward that stat, while a throw that never hits the dirt, but requires long reach or is at the shoelaces would not count in that stat. There are some major flaws with the idea, but it’s something to consider nonetheless
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Wouldn't everybody get the same number of easy and difficult hops over the long haul?
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
I’d say no. Not everyone has the same quality defenders in the infield with them.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Not sure better defenders = better hops.
I’d say better defenders = fewer hops.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
what about balls thrown that he catches 1 inch off the ground?
it should also include those that he jumps for spins and tags the runner (like he has done several times this season)
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
You'll never get everything.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/first-basemen-scoops/
I would copy and paste the bottom paragraph but I can’t on my phone. Scooping worth roughly 25% of first base defense, and the difference between the worst and the best isn’t very much. Simply put, you guys aren’t judging it correctly and there is vast amount of bias coming from your end.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Aug 4, 2011 3:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
What in that article contradicted what I said?? Nothing. Scoops aren’t accounted for in UZR Check, that’s in the article. 1B UZR is pretty flawed, check, 25% of the value is unaccounted for.
Freeman’s range is bad, check, UZR hates it.
Maybe reply fail??
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
More a response to everyone rather than anyone in specific. I haven’t even referenced UZR here, but looking at the leaderboard the best are on top, and the ones who are not new to MLB and are known as poor fielders are on the bottom. It’s nowhere near an end all be all, but it isn’t useless.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Aug 4, 2011 4:15 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
More a response to everyone rather than anyone in specific. I haven’t even referenced UZR here, but looking at the leaderboard the best are on top, and the ones who are not new to MLB and are known as poor fielders are on the bottom. It’s nowhere near an end all be all, but it isn’t useless.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Aug 4, 2011 4:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Point is
that a throw past the bag that would have been an out almost always results in two additional bases and sometimes results in three, wheras a shortstop booting a ball almost always results in only one base. Saving a throwing error is a big deal.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
And to me, scooops are more important than range at 1B...
how often does their range matter? If he’s quick enough to protect the line, let the 2B handle the gap. Besides, if he’s fielding far off the base, sometimes the Pitcher is slow enough the out isn’t there anyway and it’s the difference of a single vs. a single.
For me, the first and foremost priority in 1B defense is hands and making the catches. Making the scoops has a bigger impact than their range to me, so I’ll take that trade off of limited range in exchange for a guy who catches damn near everything he possibly can stretch for.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
All of this
and from what I have seen visually his range and reflexes really aren’t that bad….and not nearly bad enough to overshadow his scoops and close range D.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Who’s the guy who can’t make scoops? Troy Glaus? He was a third basemen his entire career. Difference between best scooper and an average one is negligible at best and does not nearly equal a fielder who gets to more grounders and line drives.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Aug 4, 2011 3:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Care to shaare the numbers there so that we know that difference isn't
“negligble” as well. If it’s a difference of less than a dozen balls throughout the year, that’s not a difference that matters.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Look at the Fangraphs post I just put above this comment.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Aug 4, 2011 4:20 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't see any spread on fielding there beside the scoops
so again, just how big is the difference between a Kotchman or Tex, and Freeman in those diving stops, grounders, etc.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
From hat I have seen (again, this is visual)
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard (ok, but is no where close to Freeman)
Mike Morse (is horrible)
Adam Dunn (when he played 1B until last year)
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
I honestly think that Freeman will have the better numbers
because thus far he has shown that he learns to make adjustments faster and thus far is not as injury prone.
That being said I think they will provide roughly equal value to their respective teams based on their respective positions. I think RFs with Heyward’s talents and attributes (Power + OBP + D + Speed) are just harder to come by than 1Bs with Freeman’s attributes (Power + OBP + D).
In terms of straight stat lines think Freeman may ultimately edge Heyward, but their respective positional value may be equal in terms of replacement ability and cost.
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
Heyward
Think about it. It’s already been said that Freeman will probably have the better AVG, but Heyward will have the better numbers. Patience is all that’s needed. Just look at Justin Upton. Arizona let him struggle and develop for awhile, and now he’s become a force. Heyward has Upton’s talent, but also has an even higher OBP and walk rate. Short of some devastating injury, I see Heyward’s basement as 200+ HRs. His ceiling is still 500+ HRs and HOF numbers.
I hope Heyward follows Upton's type of trajectory
and you are right, Justin Upton, had a down year and recovered well enough….
now I need to address something more serious….
I was looking at your profile and found this: [boxing] Chuck Norris
this is seriously hilarious….
well played Sir, well played
All while Fredi is surrounded by a bunch of orangutans, trying to teach them how to bunt the rocks and coconuts that angry 300 lb gorillas are throwing at them,
by royhobbs on Jul 29, 2011 11:20 AM PDT
I think Freeman has a very good chance to be as good offensively as Heyward
Freeman may even end up with better counting stats if he can stay durable.
WAR will likely always favor Heyward because of defense, but offensively Freeman may end up lapping Heyward before its all said and done.
/waits for Duronio’s sarcastic response
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
The poll
is pretty close, it will be interesting to see if there is any change in vote after the stretch run. Either Fred or Jason could have a solid stretch run heading into the playoffs that can maybe sway some voters in the short term?
freeman
he will have the better career because he knows how to adjust he had a slump and know he is hitting awesome
Heyward
OBP is probably the most important stat for a hitter… and if Jason can post near a .400 OBP again…. which I believe he can. Plus he plays the OF and is a better athlete.
While, I like Freeman he doesnt walk a ton and is completely inflated by his BA, while he is currently sporting a .360ish BABIP,,, which will come down some.
Similar Parallel
Been gone from TC a few months so not sure if this has been mentioned; this reminds me of back when Frenchy and Mac first got called up. Frenchy was supposed to be the star and Mac was supposed to be the complimentary player in many scout’s eyes. Right now Freddie is making all the necessary adjustments, continuing to improve much like Mac did back then. This is where my comparison ends. They are all four very different players (and more importantly, four very different people) and perhaps Jason’s inability to stay healthy plays a large role in his regression. Jason has a much higher ceiling but if he can’t healthy, in a few years, Freddie may be the Mac to Jason’s Frenchy.
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
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