Cubs Stop The Braves' Winning Streak With 8-4 Victory
by TonyAlmeyda on Aug 13, 2011 10:59 PM EDT
in Braves Game Recaps
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Atlanta's ninth-inning comeback fell short and the Cubs snap the Braves' five-game winning streak, hanging them with an 8-4 loss.
Dan Uggla extended his hitting streak to 33 games with a first-inning single, but the offense let down Derek Lowe, leaving 11 runners on base. The Cubs took a 1-0 lead in the first, but Uggla's fourth-inning home run off Randy Wells tied the game.
The Cubs retook the lead in the fifth. After Lowe retired the first two hitters, singles from Darwin Barney and Aramis Ramirez brought up Carlos Pena and he drove them both in with a double. They tacked on two more in the sixth when Tyler Colvin tripled on a fly ball Michael Bourn couldn't hang on to and with Geovany Soto batting, scored on a wide throw to home from Chipper Jones.
Atlanta tallied a single run in the bottom of the sixth to cut the lead to 5-2, but the Cubs kept adding more in the eighth. An infield single and a dropped fly ball by Martin Prado gave Chicago runners at the corners with one out. Pinch-hitter Blake DeWitt drove in pinch-runner Tony Campana with a fielder's choice followed by run-scoring singles from Barney and Starlin Castro for an 8-2 advantage. Both Castro and Barney recorded four hits in the game.
Trailing 8-3 in the ninth, the Braves managed to load the bases with one out, but could only push across one run against Carlos Marmol. The Braves were only 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position.
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Question
I think the criteria for ‘quality starts’ is kind of nuts, but does Lowe’s start tonight qualify? He gave up 5 runs, but went 6 innings and only 3 were earned. From what I understand, 6 IP and 3 or less runs is a ‘quality’ start, but is total runs or earned runs?
This was the first time all year where I sat back and didn’t really get upset at them losing. A little frustrating with RISP, but all is well if they win tomorrow.
It’s earned runs but there was a scoring change anyway that made all Lowe runs earned.
by atlynkhtr on Aug 13, 2011 11:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Haha
Well, I hope he can catch fire down the stretch again. He’s having a miserable year.
by Undocorkscrew on Aug 13, 2011 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't get me wrong
I’m the opposite of a passive fan, but I’ve gotten to the point where I dread Lowe’s starts and I’m sure that factored into me not caring a whole lot.
by Undocorkscrew on Aug 13, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions
We can't keep taking
A once a week guaranteed ass kicking. If Fredi persists in this delusion, it’s going to be a real obstacle for the team to overcome. Not impossible or even unlikely, just unnecessarily aggravating.
by Sam Jethroe on Aug 13, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Um...
He pitched well last time out and hes as good, if not better than Minor so I dont see the problem. If he doesn’t improve down the stretch, like he did last year he won’t get a start in October anyway.
by atlynkhtr on Aug 14, 2011 12:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
If he doesn't step it up pretty quickly
He won’t start in October. Neither will Huddy, JJ, Hanson or Beachy.
I like the “Um…”, too. Really smooth.
by Sam Jethroe on Aug 14, 2011 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you're overvaluing how much Lowe sucks
As long as the rest of the staff holds up, Lowe can pitch like this down the stretch and it not hurt the Braves too much.
Our 5th starter is an inconsistent innings-eater, big deal. Their season doesn’t rely on Derek Lowe.
by Undocorkscrew on Aug 14, 2011 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I would be cool with that description
If he actually could eat innings. I know the type and they can be pretty valuable on a team with an otherwise solid rotation (although I think the Braves have the option of running a solid five man unit when everyone is healthy, which seems preferable to my apparently Luddite-inclined mind.)
The problem is that Lowe fits all those characteristics except for the fact that because of his consistently high pitch counts, he doesn’t often go deep into games, which taxes the bullpen, in a season where it really can’t afford the extra load.
He’s essentially an innings eater who can’t keep them down.
A month of mediocrity at best
7-10 6.0 IP 10H 4ER
7-18 6.1 IP 8H 4ER
7-23 5.0 IP 6H 4ER
7-28 5.0 IP 8H 3ER
8-04 4.0 IP 10H 7ER
8-08 6.0 IP 6H 2ER
8-13 6.0 IP 10H 3ER (5R)
by Sam Jethroe on Aug 14, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
I hope Freddi is smart enough
…to not use Martinez the day before a Lowe start.
by crimsonqueen9 on Aug 14, 2011 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Every time Lowe starts, I feel the offense will have to score a lot of runs to win.
I also expect the bullpen will be used. Today lived up to that expectation. I just don’t have confidence in Lowe no matter what. Right now, I am even more optimistic in Minor’s starts than Lowe’s.
Great day at the ballpark
I just got home from Turner field a little while ago. It sucks of course to lose to the Cubs but it was really cool seeing the 1991 team play the Legends team. I am old enough to remember the 1982 playoff team also so it was special to me seeing Niekro and Murphy on the field again. It was great seeing Dale hit a home run and circle the bases again. Getting to see all the Braves greats sort of made of for watching Lowe struggle again. I really hope he can turn it around down the stretch like he did last year.
When Lowe starts, I automatically believe we have to pray
that enough someones can drive in men in scoring position.
He whose words outnumber his deeds, know that his death is better than his life.
It's also
An automatic 3-4 guys out of the bullpen game, which is as bad as anything else that comes with his starts.
by Sam Jethroe on Aug 14, 2011 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
IM not happy that the braves lost. what else ha[ppemed? lil bit to drink
You shouldn’t sip liquor.
-justincredubil02
no, Jack Daniel is whiskey.
-ChopMaster
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while."
Not a good night all around. I see everyone is in on the Lowe hate but the offense was just as bad against a very mediocre pitcher. The defense was terrible as well.
Hopefully the Braves got it out of their system so they can put together a much better game in all phases tomorrow.
It's not hate
I like the guy. I wish he could get his head out of his ass but I don’t trust him and this kind of “Hang with ’em!” sentimentality was always a fatal flaw in Cox’s style, one that Fredi has (at least somewhat) maintained. (Cox would be handling the Heyward-Constanza thing better, IMHO.)
Running Derek out there every fifth day is hurting the team, period. I take no joy in that and I wish that it were otherwise but wishing gets your hand full much slower.
by Sam Jethroe on Aug 14, 2011 12:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Obviously he isn’t worth the money but people go overboard on the hate. He actually had good stuff today but got unlucky and the defense didn’t help him out. Of course he made some mistakes too but he is definitely a league average starter at worst. Look at some of the 5th starters around the league. Is Lowe worse than most of those guys?
I would take a league average guy
Who could consistently go 7. We have far too much depth to be putting up with his mediocre results in the middle of a contentious race just to spare his pride or to keep Fredi Gonzalez from spraining his brain with an idea newer than 50 years old..
League average guys usually don't make it 7 innings
Hell league average guys don’t even necessarily make it through 6 on a normal night. People lose sight of this I guess, but 6 innings a start is ~200 innings over a season. There were 45 pitchers in the majors last year that managed to hit the 200 innings mark
Okay, I give up.
When he goes 4.1 innings, thowing 104 pitches while giving up 11 hits and 7 runs, on the last day of the season and the Diamondbacks edge us out for the Wild Card, at least I’ll have sabermetric dogma to comfort me.
Oh boy, more obscure numbers
I feel better about the situation now, I don’t know about you guys.
If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry
by -InsertWittyNameHere- on Aug 14, 2011 9:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
PArt of the issue is that he's a sinker-ball pitcher
And the defense is, generously, below average. More reasonably, it’s just plain bad.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Hardly his only problem
That meatball he threw to Pena was the crippling blow tonight and it’s the kind of shitty, no control pitch he’s thrown in key situations over and over this year.
His control is rotten, which causes him to throw far too many pitches, which causes him to sweat and get tired which causes his control to get even worse. Lather, rinse, repeat.
Yes because innings pitched are clearly advanced stats
Only real followers of sabermetrics can understand them
Most of the pro-Lowe arguments I see around here
Are either that he doesn’t suck as much as he appears to or that he had a great stretch run last year. I don’t find either particularly comforting.
He's actually allowing HRs at a lower rate than last year
and his groundball rate is almost exactly identical. He’s allowing a few more line drives, and his walk rate is up slightly, but he should be getting slightly better results than he has been. That’s certainly not the kind of value he’s being payed for, but he deserves slightly better results than he’s gotten.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Inning pitched is kind of an interesting nit-picking point in SABR studies. It’s often used as a denominator (or at least 9 IP is) for certain things because we like to get a profile of a whole ballgame, but it create issues. Sometimes you’re trying to isolate pitcher controlled skills, so you want to exclude things that can be a reflection of the defense, but that means you can’t use K per 9 Innings pitched since that includes outs and non-outs on balls in play, which are reflections of the defense more than the pitcher.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
And I wasn’t really trying to make any major point about the number of innings pitched, at least as it correlates to league average status, in my original post. I just meant I would take someone with a league average ERA who could go deep into games and spare the bullpen (See the “Innings eater” exchange I have with Undercorkscrew above.)
On a side note the Braves have to eventually trade some of their pitching prospects for some hitting when Chip leaves.
If we can re-sign Bourn...
…and Heyward gets his groove back, I don’t know that this is necessarily true. Especially with Pastornicky replacing Sea Bass in the near future. The only question mark I see is LF. Every other position has (or will have) a player that can potentially rake. There’s that word again…potentially
by FlyDeltaJets on Aug 14, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Replay Fail...
…meant to reply to Albert
by FlyDeltaJets on Aug 14, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Pastornicky still isn't a sure thing to stick at SS
And there is basically no chance he ever ends up “raking” as you put it. Jeff Keppinger or Omar Infante would be a pretty good outcome for him with the bat.
I thought he was solid enough there
The issue with Pastornicky is whether he’ll hit enough to be a regular, right?
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Depends what you mean by solid enough
He apparently projects to be fringe-average or below-average and most guys peak pretty young defensively. Could be by the time he’s 24 or 25 he adds some weight and loses another step of range. Could end up like Infante defensively, to use a recent Braves example. Infante can play SS well enough to fill in for a week or two and be a backup, but there’s no way you’d want to run him out there everyday.
Pastor is having the best season of his "career"...
at the highest level he’s played at. What’s the reasoning behind thinking he can’t play to at least a fraction of that level in the show? OTOH, there’s nothing wrong with being a modern day Rafael Belliard.
by FlyDeltaJets on Aug 14, 2011 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Who said he couldn't carry over a fraction of his success?
I compared him to Keppinger and Infante who are both solid players that have had long MLB careers (with significant time spent as starters). Those should be seen as solid outcomes, at the very least, for Pastornicky.
I just don’t know what his defense is like. I’ve heard that he has good range and doesn’t make many mistakes, that sounds like “above average” to me. It’s hard to get any sense of how good minor league defensive players are. I mean, he’s supposed to be “Yunel Escobar-lite.” If he has Yunel’s good instincts and first step, he’ll be fine as a short stop. I just don’t know if his bat will translate.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
He's missing Escobar main weapon though
Yeah, if Pastornicky had a 70+ arm like Yunel, he would project to be a well above average defensive SS. The problem is it grades out more like a 40 for the position, which even with good range (and I’ve heard more like average to fringe-average for Pastornicky) leaves an average at best SS. It doesn’t make that much of a difference if you can get to balls if you can’t throw the guy out once you get there (yes I know there are some small exceptions, but you get the point).
You speak with such certainty about his defense, yet I doubt you have much first-hand evidence of it.
CB and a handful of others have seen him play, and even them I wouldn’t try with a definitive scouting report on his defense, as watching someone during a few bad games can sour your view.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Please show me where I speak with certainty
I’m simply reporting the grades and impressions I’ve gotten from reading scouting reports on Pastornicky and trying to use them to project out what Pastornicky might be. Not sure why some people on here seem to take offense to the idea that not every Brave prospect we like talking about is destined to turn out to be a long-term starter. At no point have I said that Pastornicky is a bad player or that he doesn’t have a future in the majors. I’ve simply made the point that he may not stick as a starting SS long-term and may simply end up a utility player (which is still a very valuable thing to have around…just look at what Omar Infante did for the Braves last year).
Fredi said he expects Brian McCann in the lineup tomorrow. He might bat him third and move Freeman down to fifth.
Twitter: @TAlmeyda
I guessing that means a day off for Chipper?
Or would we push Chipper all the way to sixth int he line-up?
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Probably
Especially with it being a day game after a night game…then again when he is playing do you really hit him in the 3, 4, or 5 hole over Freeman, McCann, or Uggla? Only place I can see him in the top 6 is hitting #2 instead of Prado.
Just feels like blasphemy to drop Chipper that far down the line-up
It was weird to see him fifth, but it made sense. Maybe I’m just riding high on the good results he’s gotten in the past 5 games or so.
I certainly don’t think it would be a bad idea to bat him second. He’s hitting better than Martin Prado this year and there’s nothing wrong with his .350ish OBP in the second spot. Prado’s batting line this year doesn’t look that good in the second spot, so if you drop someone outside of the top 5 spots, he’d be the ideal one.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Oh I have no problem with dropping Prado down in the lineup
Chipper does look awfully slow out there on the basepaths right now, but I guess that doesn’t matter all that much if heap is hitting #3 behind him
And if Uggla keeps up the homer-fest in the clean-up spot
It REALLY doesn’t matter if Chipper isn’t able to run very fast.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Martin still needs to step it up
But if he can, I feel really good about the Braves 1-5 in the line-up. And if we get McCann back in with Chipper playing, I feel really good about us 1-6. Chipper has looked really, really good since he took that time off, going back to when we played the Pirates and Marlins at home. His swing has looked better since New York, and he’s really been driving the ball the last two nights. I’m still curious where his patience has gone-he’s drawing walks at a career low rate-but I trust him because he’s Chipper Jones.
What really hurt us tonight was that 6th inning. Defense wasn’t helping Lowe, but trying to send him back out in the 6th cost us two runs, and then Prado’s fielding gaffe in the 8th cost us probably two more runs. I’m back to the point where I feel like I trust this offense to put up 4 runs if we can keep it close. Uggla’s hitting home runs every night and Freeman keeps striking the ball with authority, and McCann is awesome in his own right.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Yeah
His production is down this season, too. I hope his good work against the Marlins is the start of something of a hot streak rather than just a quick blip. I know we were hoping before the season that he’d be more than a mediocre bat in left field.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Wow, the Marlins optioned Morrison to AAA
According to Morrison, the only reason they gave him was this… ‘What are you hitting, .240?’"
He’s not having a great year, but I really don’t see the point in demoting him when they’re season is all but done. He was actually heating up at the plate before the demotion.
Best case scenario? Constanza rakes all the way to the playoffs and Loria and Beinfest sour on Morrison to the point where he could be had for Constanza and Varvaro……
I was initially thinking service time manipulation to get an extra year of team control
But that doesn’t appear to be the case.
They did that with Cameron Maybin, lol
Basically, he got two partial seasons with the Marlins, he didn’t really hit as well as they liked, so they said “Well, hell, he’ll be 24 next year, practically an old man!” So they traded him to the Padres for two relief pitchers. And hey, look, he’s kind of decent!
Logan thinks they’re mad because he made some comments on his Twitter account when Edwin Rodriguez was fired. That actually makes more sense than releasing him for performance-he’s got a higher OBP and SLG than Martin Prado right now. It’s not like having his average dip down to .249 was enough by itself.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
He said that he didn't think it had anything to do with Twitter
“An avid Twitter user that has drawn criticism from team president David Samson for his tweets, Morrison does not believe the demotion was a result of anything related to that.”
“I don’t think it’s that,” Morrison said. “I think it was something else, but I don’t even know if I want to say it now. I want to talk to my agent and stuff like that.”
by Undocorkscrew on Aug 14, 2011 2:09 AM EDT up reply actions
Regardless
This sounds somewhat stupid. If they were that concerned by his production, why’s he batting third every day?
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Can't win em all, but...
Swinging at alot of bad pitches. We beat ourselves. Waiting for a pitch to swing at apparently out of the equation. Oh, and Fidel and Barney beat us, too.
Since when did everyone in the Cubs bullpen (aside from Marmol) look alike?
Derek Lowe back to pitching right down the middle when he really needs to buckle down and make good pitches.
Go Uggla.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"Wang, my third at-bat, he threw me a 1-0 fastball that I fouled straight back, and he came back with another heater, which surprised me." - Freddie Freeman
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Aug 14, 2011 2:38 AM EDT reply actions
Since when did everyone in the Cubs bullpen (aside from Marmol) look alike?
i.e., like contestants in a Kip Winger lookalike contest.
Lol, I mean, that was my look in college back in 04 (albeit in a Braves hat) but I guess that’s their thing. Seems like it would get awful hot always being outside.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"Wang, my third at-bat, he threw me a 1-0 fastball that I fouled straight back, and he came back with another heater, which surprised me." - Freddie Freeman
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Aug 14, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Lowe pitching like a #5 guy right now, so at least 4 more days until that again.
"It looks like The Hound of the Baskervilles out there." - Steve Stone
"...I'm reminded of Wuthering Heights." - Harry Caray
~
"Wang, my third at-bat, he threw me a 1-0 fastball that I fouled straight back, and he came back with another heater, which surprised me." - Freddie Freeman
by Chief Noc-A-Homa on Aug 14, 2011 2:55 AM EDT up reply actions
Lowe didn't pitch great - but THIS has been the reason for most of our losses this year.
Dan Uggla extended his hitting streak to 33 games with a first-inning single, but the offense let down Derek Lowe, leaving 11 runners on base. The Cubs took a 1-0 lead in the first, but Uggla’s fourth-inning home run off Randy Wells tied the game.
The Braves were only 2-for-14 with runners in scoring position.
When I saw Well's ERA, I knew we might have a tough night.
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
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