Hale Rains On Opponents and Pastornicky Hits Again in Atlanta Braves Minor League Action
by yondaime4 on Aug 10, 2011 11:43 PM EDT
in Braves Minor League Recaps
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PrintAnother good night for the winz but nothing super exciting from the player side of the recaps. David Hale did have a nice start for the Hillcats and JJ Hoover picked up his first AAA save. Pastornicky is still putting up multiple hit games but the hot hitters in Lynchburg fell short. The GCL Braves may never play another game.
Gwinnett Braves 4, Scranton/WB Yankees 2
- Matt Young, DH 2-4, K, .278 Avg
- Tyler Pastornicky, SS 2-4, CS(3), .416 Avg
- Stefan Gartrell, RF 2-2, RBI, 2 BB, .265 Avg
- Wilkin Ramirez, LF 2-4, 2B, 2 K, CS(3), .262 Avg
- JJ Hoover 1.2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K, 9.45 ERA
The Braves have taken three of four from the Yankees in a five game series and neither team has scored more than four runs in any game. That means tomorrow the score will be 20-19. Tyler Pastornicky is closing in on 100 plate appearances in the AAA and he is still hitting over .400 after compiling a .299 average for Mississippi. J.J. Hoover made a triumphant return to AAA tonight after getting roughed up as a starter a couple of months back. His conversion to a bullpen role is looking pretty permanent at this point.
Mississippi Braves 5, Mobile BayBears 4
- Willie Cabrera, LF 2-5, CS(4), .271 Avg
- Ernesto Mejia, 1B 2-5, HR(18), 2 RBI, 2 K, .296 Avg
- Ed Lucas, SS 3-4, .271 Avg
- Mycal Jones, CF 1-2, 2 RBI, .236 Avg
The Braves pick up the win behind solid pitching from the bullpen and some timely hits. Remember back in spring training when Ed Lucas was in serious consideration for the utility spot on the bench after a very nice AAA season in the PCL. He never got going in Gwinnett and has since been moved down to Mississippi where he is putting up OK numbers but nothing close to what he did in the offense inflated PCL last year. Willie Cabrera is another guy who had a very good season last year but just hasn't regained the magic this year. He was never going to be more than a fourth outfielder and last year may have been his peak season.
Kinston Indians 4, Lynchburg Hillcats 3 - 10 Innings
- Andrelton Simmons, SS 2-4, 2B, BB, .299 Avg
- Gerry Rodriguez, DH 2-5, HR(8), 2 RBI, .206 Avg
- David Hale 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R(2 ER), 2 BB, 6 K, 3.44 ERA
David Hale notched another solid start for the Hillcats but for once the offense couldn't get going. Cunningham, Terdoslavich and Gosselin all went hitless in the game. Hale continues to impress as a starter allowing less than a hit an inning and striking out 7.3 per nine innings.
Asheville Toursits 3, Rome Braves 6
- Matt Lipka, SS 1-5, 2B, .238 Avg
- Chris Garcia, 1B 1-2, HR(12), 2 BB, K, .324 Avg
- Evan Gattis, C 1-1, 2B, 2 BB, .297 Avg
- Ryan Delgado, DH 2-3, 3B, RBI, K, .207 Avg
- Caleb Brewer 5 IP, 3 H, 3 R(1 ER), 3 BB, 7 K, 5.32 ERA
- Chasen Shreve 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 3.86 ERA
Caleb Brewer continues to struggle with his control but tonight he had the strikeout pitch working tonight. Chasen Shreve came in relief and walked some guys while collecting a few strikeouts as well. Evan Gattis is still way better than the competition in the Sally League as is semi-journeyman Chris Garcia.
Elizabethton Twins 3, Danville Braves 0
- Nick Ahmed, SS 3-4, BB, .247 Avg
- Edison sanchez, DH 1-3, BB, K, .292 Avg
- Fernando De Los Santos, RF 3-4, K, .333 Avg
- Joe Lucas 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K, 1.89 ERA
The Braves collected a lot of hits tonight (ten total with three walks), but couldn't capitalize on any opportunities. Neither Brandon Drury or William Beckwith reached base and that probably had a lot to do with the lack of scoring. The pitching staff was solid as youngster Ernesto Silva (who looks like a 13 year old in his MILB picture) threw just three innings but allowed just one hit.
GCL Braves @ GCL Pirates
Yet another rain out for the GCL Braves.
DSL Braves @ DSL Angels Gm 1
DSL Braves @ DSL Angels Gm 2
Not reported.
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God no
Guys, its awesome that Pastornicky is on this hotstreak to start his time at AAA, but once his BABIP (.435) regresses to his normal levels (which are generally below league average) this will sound crazy. If he were posting the .315 BABIP he posted in AA in AAA right now, he’d be looking at a line of about .280/.330/.340 and we wouldn’t be talking about him. Combine that with defense that’s supposedly profiles as fringe-average at best by big league standards and we’re looking at a guy who down the line might just make it as an MLB SS if things break right. If our front office was dumb enough to throw him out there over Gonzalez (who I don’t even like) because of some fluke hot streak to start his AAA career, than I would be in fear of what the future held for this franchise.
If Tyler were only getting on base at .330, that’d still be 70 points higher than Gonzalez. The Braves traded Jeff Francoeur for Ryan Church for similar (lack of) performance.
You realize AAA is easier than MLB right?
Plus there’s the fact that Gonzalez is a good defensive SS and Pastornicky is not.
God please send Jose Constanza down immediately. His BABIP is too high.
He makes me fear of what the future holds for this franchise.
I’m mocking you because your argument is just too negative for my liking and too dependent on one statistic. Also, I think we still would be talking about Pastornicky with a line of .280/.330/.340, because our starting SS has a line of .235/.263/.347. Calling a 21-year old’s hot start a “fluke” after earning the promotion is premature and just dumb. Of course I don’t expect him to hit .400 forever, but damn man…
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 9:10 AM EDT up reply actions
You would seriously be talking about plugging Pastornicky into the lineup
If he were posting a .280/.330/.340 line in his first 20 games in AAA? That’s what I was saying. With that sort of line in AAA, it becomes clear he’s not a sure upgrade over Gonzalez offensively, and he’s a big downgrade defensively. This is leaving aside the obvious clubhouse issue of benching the guy who has started at SS for the entire season for a 21 year prospect that’s played ~20 games in AAA.
I love how you claim its premature and dumb to call his hot start a fluke, and then immediately admit that what he’s doing is completely unsustainable. I’m not saying we should just completely ignore how well he’s playing or anything and its definitely cool, but he clearly isn’t anywhere close to as good as he looks at the moment.
by nixa37 on Aug 11, 2011 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
If you were a certified “Pastornicky expert”, then I might take what you say with more than a grain of salt. You just said his defense “supposively profiles as fringe average”, so what do you really know about this guy other than your feeling that he clearly isn’t as good as he is playing at the moment?
I love how you say you love how I claim things, but I happen to think there is a pretty big difference between saying he is a fluke and saying his .400 average is unsustainable.
To be fair, I know nothing about the guy other than what I read on TC and other sports sites. Obviously, you know alot more..
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions
The defense comment is based on scouting reports
He’s a guy with fringe-average range and an arm that falls somewhere between below-average and fringe average (obviously this is all relative to SS). That’s the reason he generally gets pegged as a utility infielder, because he’s not good enough to play average defense at SS and the bat doesn’t (or at least hadn’t in the past) profiled as being good enough to start anywhere other than SS.
Not really sure what you have against the word fluke. I guess it has the connotation of having to do with luck and people don’t like attributing baseball results to luck, but I’m not sure how you can disagree with the fact that his current AAA performance is an “unlikely chance occurrence.”
Oh and I why is supposively [sic] in italics and quotes? I did spell it correctly in my post.
I think I just take “fluke” harsher than you do. I wouldn’t use it to describe a 21 year old playing in the most advanced minor league over nearly 100 plate appearances after putting an impressive line in AA. He can hit, he has hit, and I think he will continue to hit. Just because he is hitting at a seemingly unsustainable level doesn’t make him a fluke….IMO.
Just emphasizing that word. I only use that word when I’m not sure about something and I wanted to get a better idea of your own observations. Any body can read a Sickels report and say that a player can do so-n-so well or badly.
…and actually it is spelled wrong, “supposively” is a grammatically incorrect way of saying “supposedly”. I’m not the type to call out spelling errors, well, except for now, cause I just did.
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Also, I never said he should be plugged in the lineup and Gonzo benched. I can see how you interpreted that with my inclusion of Gonzo’s poor hitting line, but I’m not really arguing for his benching. I would def. still be impressed with that .280 line and I’m sure there would still be similiar conversations given Gonzo’s offensive struggles.
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Thought you might have meant "talking about Pastornicky" more in the future sense
I just thought the initial post about Pastornicky possibly being in the big leagues if AGon hadn’t picked it up some was one of the crazier things I’ve seen. Pastornicky is playing himself into the discussion as a possible starting SS for the Braves, but putting him in the lineup right now in the middle of a pennant race simply because he’s hit .400 in 20 AAA games is insane.
Again, I’m not saying Gonzo should be benched in favor of Pastornicky, but I don’t think it would be THAT crazy. Gonzo sucks with the bat, plain and simple. He’s an automatic out on most nights and doesn’t get on base. Replacing that with an extremely hot hitter, albeit a level below, doesn’t seem to crazy with me. I mean, what if it actually worked and Pastornicky continued his hot streak in the majors. It’s not that crazy to think that he could.
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s crazy … You don’t replace a seasoned veteran at one of the most critical positions on the diamond during a pennant race with an untested rookie. AGon has been getting some timely hits over the last 3 weeks and is one of the best defensive shortstops in the game.
Pastornicky will get his shot to compete for the position when the time is right – probably next spring – why would you rush a 21 year old to the show during such a critical time -
by bravesfaninchitown on Aug 11, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
We already know this. We agree that Gonzo shouldn’t be replaced with Pastornicky right now. I don’t think it’s a crazy idea…obviously you think it’s an insane idea.
Daffy Duck goes to bed at 10:00 every night, except on New Year's Eve, he goes to bed at 8:30.
by bwellnjonesco on Aug 11, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
If he were posting the .315 BABIP he posted in AA in AAA right now, he’d be looking at a line of about .280/.330/.340
I hate when people use predictive stats as if they were fact. The jump from AA to AAA is not all that extreme for good hitters. No reason to think that he can’t continue to hit as good or better than he did in Mississippi. Also no reason to think he couldn’t at least translate some of that success to the majors if called upon.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
This is just strange
What do you mean using predictive stats as if they were fact? Heck, what do you even mean by predictive stats? I took his actual stats from AAA and adjusted for a clearly unsustainable .435 BABIP. He’s never even posted a BABIP within 10 points of his AA BABIP from this season outside of a 15 game stint in rookie ball last year. There is absolutely no reason to think he can carry numbers close to his current pace forward.
As for there not being any reason to think that he can’t continue to hit as good or better than he did in Mississippi, there are the facts that he’s striking out more and hitting for significantly less power. He certainly could continue to carry his AA success forward into AAA over the next year, but there is just as much reason to think it may fall off.
As for him being able to carry his current success over into the majors, I mean maybe he could get insanely hot ala Frenchy when he first got the call, but if anyone actually thinks he would be better than Gonzalez (who again, I do not like at all) right now in terms of true talent they’re kidding themselves. There is a reason Pastornicky still gets projected as a utility player by scouts. He puts the ball in play a lot, but he doesn’t walk, doesn’t hit for power, and doesn’t project to be even average defensively at SS. If he turns into Jeff Keppinger down the line we should consider ourselves lucky.
He’s never even posted a BABIP within 10 points of his AA BABIP from this season outside of a 15 game stint in rookie ball last year. There is absolutely no reason to think he can carry numbers close to his current pace forward.
The problem I have with this statement is that Pastornicky is a 21 year old player in the Minors who is developing. He’s getting better, not just year to year, but month to month and even week to week. He’s not a guy who’s been playing at the same level for years who you can make reasonable estimations and predictions about his numbers based off a huge amount of data. He’s a young guy who is growing as a player and he’s been at three different levels of play in the last 2 years. I’ll admit I don’t know much about BABIP, but I do know you’re right in that he won’t be able to keep it that high, but at the same time you can’t make huge assumptions about the guy’s ability going forward based off his past stats because of his age and development. You can make some small assumptions, like your apt one about his current BABIP being unsustainable, but making big assumptions about how his average and BABIP will relate going forward just seems unfounded based on where he is in his career.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
Obviously players get better, and that's a big reason why
I projected out those numbers based on his career best BABIP from AA this season. At the same time, the 1500+ PA prior to this hot streak of less than 100 PA in AAA do tell us a lot about the type of player Pastornicky currently is. While players can improve on their BABIP, its exceedingly rare for someone to just suddenly go from below average to elite. I honestly don’t think there are many examples of players showing extended track record of big improvement over long amounts of time.
I’m not sure where you get the idea that I’m making huge assumptions about the guy’s ability going forward based on his past stats. I’m saying his stats this year (along with his scouting reports) in no way indicate that he is close to ready to take over for Gonzalez at this moment. I’m also saying that the scouting reports and his minor league career numbers make him the sort of player that projects as a second division starter or a utility player.
Honestly, I’m not even really sure what part of my post what you say disagrees with. It mostly seems like you disagree with how I project him as a player, which is fine, but you’re framing it as if I’m making big assumptions (kind of a prerequisite for projecting) based solely on past stats (when I’m including scouting reports) and not allowing for future development (if I wasn’t I’d just say he’s not an MLB player).
I think where y'all disagree is simply the amount of growth you forecast for Pastornicky
Statistics reflect past occurrences. Their usefulness in predicting future behavior depends on the conditions that gave birth to them: if those conditions stay roughly the same (i.e., Pastornicky does not improve significantly), they can be very useful in forecasting a player’s future. But if those conditions change (i.e., Pastornicky does improve significantly), the value of the statistics is greatly diminished. I simply think y’all disagree on how much better you think Pastornicky is going to get, and as a consequence, disagree on how useful his current BABIP is as an indicator of his future performance.
1950 NCAA Co-National Champions
Even if you think he's going to get a lot better
His current BABIP is not an indicator of future performance in any way shape or form.
I think this ^^ is correct
For a guy growing right in front of people eye’s making any solid predictions would be difficult at best.
With that being said, of course some of his stats will regress from his current level of play. A person does not really need any stat to tell an on-looker that. He’s very hot right now and at the age of 21 performing at an alarmingly high rate, grabbing the attention of many coaches and scouts
There really is not much truly known how he will translate to the ML level, due to his age, gorwth/progression, and a relatively SSS.
I will say this: He’s a solid hitter who has shown the ability to hit for average and contact.
He’s an average to decent fielder who could play 2B, SS, and possibly 3B at the ML level
All arguments aside, he’s been one heck of a suprise to us all, and should continue to suprise us Braves fans as he fights for a roster spot next spring, possibly having an outside shot a making the ball club.
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Aug 11, 2011 2:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
When i say this ^^ I'm ref. to cb's comment
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Aug 11, 2011 2:42 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You do realize this is largely a discussion of what he would do in the majors right now?
Considering you are saying yourself that he has an outside shot of making the club out of spring, it seems like you agree that he isn’t ready to contribute to MLB club today. I don’t understand what seems so difficult at projecting what he could do in the majors RIGHT NOW. Sure, we don’t know how good he’ll end up 5 years from now when he’s entering his prime, but that really has nothing to do with the conversation at hand.
well...
“RIGHT NOW” he is pretty hot. If he was in the Majors RIGHT NOW, he could very well stay hot, for a little while at least. But, using his BABIP from AA is not a very good indicator. Maybe, him being a young hitter, he has developed a different approach at the plate, who knows, can’t bury the kid for producing when called up to a new level.
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they are going to feel all day. - Frank Sinatra
I'm not burying him for producing
I’m simply saying he is not nearly as good as his current AAA line indicates. We all know he’s not, some people just want to think its more real than I think it is. And I’m not just using his BABIP from AA, I’m basing this on 1500+ PA worth of BABIP from the minors (where AA was easily the best he had done). And no, he hasn’t suddenly developed a new approach at the plate in the middle of the season just after he got called up. He just happened to post a high BABIP for ~20 games. It happens all the time in baseball at every single level (just takes a few extra balls falling in, few extra balls left over the heart of the plate, etc.) it just so happens in Pastornicky’s case it happened in his first 20 games after getting the call to AAA. And expecting it to continue, especially when he would be getting the call to the majors, is something only a bad team would do.
If only someone, way back in Spring Training, had warned people not to get too excited about Ed Lucas…
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
and if only Jose could have been called up earlier! lol
Really though, I wonder if Jose was called up earlier, and relatively sustained an average to above average level of play (performing lets say a bit worse then he is now) .
I wonder if FW would have traded for Bourn?
Whatever the answer to that is though, I am sure glad everything worked out the way it did.
With the exception of J-Hey, at times, and of course the absence of B-Mac, this lineup is looking mighty scary.
Especially now that A-Gon is performing decently
Sometimes I wake up grumpy; other times I let her sleep.
by chicagobullies on Aug 11, 2011 2:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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