The Case for Carlos Beltran...
by ROBravo on Jul 24, 2011 12:26 PM EDT
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...to go anywhere but here. I'm so sick of every single time I read over at MLBTR, I see the likes of "Braves could send Minor", "Mutts want Minor", and so on and so forth. That's my rant on that, and quite enough. Down to my meat and potatoes.
1) I absolutely HATE the idea of trading from our plethora of young (or old for that matter) of pitching for a freaking rental. We have proven that it doesn't work. I don't believe I need to remind you gals and guys about our history w/ rentals. And do we really want to trade them someone like Minor and then see him several times a year? Also, even if we DID re-sign Beltran at the end of the year, that only leads me to point #......
2) Do we really want a 34 yr old, injury prone CF'er? Leaving out this year (Mutts have played 100 games, and he's only been out 5 so far), he only played in 64 games last year, and 81 in 2009. The injury bug first bit him in 2000, limiting him to 98 games. Sure from 2005-8, he did well, playing in an avg of 149 games/yr but his 2005 year ended w/ injuries starting in August, and after tht he battled quad issues the rest of the season. But that was from age 28-31, somewhat "in his prime", and also during a time in which baseball is dealing w/ widespread steriod use. I'm not saying he def used, bc I have no idea, only saying that its possible. My understanding of the stuff is extremely limited, so bear w/ me on that one. Regardless, he seems to be on a downward trend of games played each season. And please don't give me the SSS. He's not getting any younger.
I'm not going to get into his stat line, as its honestly pretty good to me. He's def a good player, my only concerns are his injury issues, and the rental deal. Thanks for taking the time to read my rant, and Go Braves!
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Upton!!! the rays have said they wouldn't have to be wowed by an offer and the braves have the best prospects to get him
they could probably do the minor for upton thing and we’d actually keep upton.
i dont
not much of an upgrade from what we currently have. if we acquire him for less than minor then i’m fine with that but that won’t happen.
I do
because he has speed , power , and upside because we would have for more than two months unlike Beltran . Talent wise , I do like Beltran . But I would rather get someone for more than just a couple of months for what we would have to pay for him .
dude, the man just needs a change of scenery. id want to get the hell out of tampa too
they’ve been touting jennings as his replacement for like two years now. I dont want a rental
nah, read the 1st line of the post lol
I continued the same sentence. Just being a goof, w/ a switcheroo. Lure you in w/ the headline, then competely go the other way.
Melky was a fail, but that was Melky’s fault, or the fault of Atlanta for having awesome cheeseburgers and ribs.
by Broccoman on Feb 21, 2011 4:11 PM EST
The fact that the rental didnt work out for us before
does not “prove” that it doesnt work.. That’s bad bad science
And who says it didn't work?
Drew was just fine as a rental. Way too expensive for a rental, but he was valuable to the team.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 24, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
We have had a GREAT history with “rental” players. Sure, some of the kids that we’ve given up have become good big leaguers, but the rentals that we’ve acquired over the last 10 or so years have played extremely well for us.
Teixeira, Drew, Sheffield and Vasquez were all really, really good in a Braves uniform.
Russ Ortiz, Edgar Renteria and Soriano were pretty damn effective too.
why is Teixiera a rental?
Just because we traded him midway through the next season.
Tex wasn't a rental
He was a colossal screw-up by Schuerholz, much like the Ed Hearn/David Cone swap or Mark Davis deals that highlighted the end of his screwing up the Royals. Sheffield wasn’t a rental either. The only ones on that list who truly was one and done with the Braves were Drew and Vazquez.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 2:47 AM EDT up reply actions
I realize
that the players did well for us. But a common perception here at TC is that neither Schafer, nor McLouth, are the long term answer in CF. Well, maybe Schafer. That seems to go 50/50 here. The point I was trying to make, and maybe not very well, is that I personally don’t want to rent a player for 2 months, for a good piece like Minor. We have had a history in the past of getting a rental, then losing that player to FA. And word is Beltran may do the same thing. If we are going to part w/ a Minor-esque player, I’d rather just answer the CF/OF question for the next couple years, and get someone under contract for longer.
Melky was a fail, but that was Melky’s fault, or the fault of Atlanta for having awesome cheeseburgers and ribs.
by Broccoman on Feb 21, 2011 4:11 PM EST
But we won't get that for Minor.
If we could, we would have a while back. Getting long term hitting answers via trade is very hard to do without giving up elite prospects.
We where offered Jacoby last year.
The rumor is that FW turned it down. I’ve heard this rumor enough to believe it was true. So at this point last year, teams ( well at least the Red Sox) did view Minor as that type of prospect. So do you think Minor’s value has fallen that far or do you think the Red Sox didn’t properly value Jacoby?
Jacoby's value last season
…was as low as it possibly will be for the next 5-10 years. There’s a reason Wren said no.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I can buy that.......
But looking to the future, FW ( and the Red Sox) had to see Jacoby would be able to recover from rib problems and how much of an asset he would have been down the road ( although none of us saw this power coming fro Jacoby). So is it possible in your opinion that FW ( and the Red Sox) just views Minor’s value as more than what Jacoby had done in past years?
DO you think Minor’s value has dropped?
And if true,...
that’d be a mistake in hindsight. I’ve never seen anything of the sort indicating a Minor for Ellsbury possibility though, so I doubt it’s veracity.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
You seriously didn't hear ESPN report it ....
Over and over again around last years trade dead-line? Before the Rick for Blanco trade. Even if you didn’t for once I agree with you, FW should have pulled the trigger. I do think FW thought Minor would be in the rotation this year for the Braves, that could have had something to do with him not doing it. But as I said I agree, Even without his new power Jacoby would have looked great at the top of our line-up.
Link or it never happened...
there was nothing more than reporter rosterbation regarding Ellsbury and the Braves at last year’s deadline. It was a DOB speculation unfounded by anything and never mentioning any sort of price. So no, there was no Ellsbury for Minor rumor “over and over again around last years [sic] trade deadline”
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
LOL..... I don't have a link, it was last year.
And with your response you did hear about it. Unfounded? Who knows, lot’s of rumors are. And yes they did report it on Espn over and over again and it was Mike Minor’s name that came up. Why would I lie about something I heard? You don’t have to believe the rumor, I choose to. You heard it from D.O.B, I heard it on ESPN.
There were rumors
But never from either organization, just speculation from writers about where would be a good fit. The Red Sox had some serious concern about his reporting of his injury last year to the team and the amount of time it took to recover. Those things were taken care of between Ellsbury and management during spring training this year, but there was a point last year where his performance was down and the organization was sour on him, but I would wager it would have taken more than just Minor to seal the deal.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
i also don't want beltran
he is injury prone—especially if we put him in center field.
He will also be a weak defender
Bourn is the guy we want
That is honestly a minor concern to me.
Especially considering that he would step in for Schafer, who is already left handed .
And his stats against lefties aren’t bad 378/333obp
don't get me wrong
I like Bourn . It’s just that we are so left-handed batting heavy , I’d like to see a little more balance . I liked Prado leading off , even though I’ll admit it’s nice to see someone turn a single or walk into a double somewhat consistently .
What if it isn’t one of our top-four pitchers (Teheran, Minor, Delgado, Vizcaino)? Would you trade one of the lessers for him? I know I would.
sure
but the lead in I see most is Minor.
Melky was a fail, but that was Melky’s fault, or the fault of Atlanta for having awesome cheeseburgers and ribs.
by Broccoman on Feb 21, 2011 4:11 PM EST
If no team flinches, they are gonna have to come down. The Phillies, Braves, and Giants are all comfortable with what they have now to make the playoffs. So the urgency is less than what it could be. If they come down, i would trade any pitcher outside our “big 4” without even hesitating. If they don’t come down, though, and we have to compete for him, well then you have to decide whether we think he can push us all the way. If you think he can, make the trade. If not, don’t make it.
The Mets know that if they’re gonna get anything for Beltran, the time is now. Even if they have to continue dangling him in August, his value will only continue to weaken — hitting zero on September 1st. That said….
At some point this week, somebody will blink. He’s gonna be traded — the only question being: “who blinks first?” Given that there are 3 NL teams that either need him or need somebody else to NOT get him, I expect that it will be either the Giants or the Braves. These teams have the most to gain.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
The need for beltran is not worth the price
Yes, it would be awesome to get Beltran’s bat. He is a great player, and would make us quite dangerous. However, once chipper comes back, you have prado, beltran, and heyward for two positions (Beltran should not play center.) I just do not think his acquistion would move the needle enough to justify trading one of our top prospects. The big difference between the Braves need for an offense and teams like the Pirates, Indians, or Giants need for an offense is that we have players who are heating up and can make the same difference an impact bat would. We may have an excess of top pitching prospects, and one of those would be more helpful in trading for a needed piece. However, we need that piece to be a fixture for now and the future, not just the nex two months. Let Beltran go make a differance for another team, and use our depth in the minors to provide depth in the majors.
by bravesbeast1985 on Jul 24, 2011 1:37 PM EDT reply actions
I'll give em Spruill. That's about it.
"I heard that Tits was "well rounded" and his brother Cans was a "stand out." :D"
by Old Braves' Fan on Aug 18, 2010 3:05 PM PDT
If the price is not one of the top 4 prospects, I’m leaning toward wanting Carlos. I think Carlos is the best fit short term and B.J. the better fit long term. If the trade where made for B.J., I would not bet against him having a career year next year in his walk year and us getting the 2 picks when he walks.
I do have a question though. Being that Chipper is the one leading the charge to add a bat, would his charge be so hard if he where the one to loose the most playing time? If we where to add Carlos I would be in favor of keeping Jordan in CF even when Chipper is healthy and using Prado as a sub at 1B, 2B, 3B, and LF with him playing almost every day and a good percentage of those starts coming at 3B. I just don’t think we can loose site of how much Jordan does defensively for this team and with Jason showing signs of life, I think he’s about to get hot.
I also think Jason is about to get hot
But though I am a major supporter of the super sub, I don’t see it happening with a hot Uggla, Freeman, and Heyward..
I dont see how this isnt simple…
Get Bourn
keep the incredible defense in center
keep the speed at the top of the lineup
replace our weakest bat (besides Gonzalez maybe)
DONT MESS WITH HEYWARD IN RIGHT OR PRADO IN LEFT!!!
The other side of that is
Schafer becomes a perfect 4th OF
He could play all positions well with a good arm and phenomenal defense.
when he starts:
he bats 8th, where he would prob have a 330+ OBP
When he comes off the bench
He pinch runs and comes in as a defensive replacement
Why keep Schafer in center?
Would we really rather have a subpar bat instead of a very good bat when the defensive tradeoff is not particularly large? (For all the speculation that Beltran would not play well in center, he was always a good center fielder; subtracting some for age and injury history, he should still be fine.) And while Schafer is a good center fielder, he is hardly great defensively—he has speed, but not the best routes in the world. He just looks really good when the other guy we see out there regularly is McLouth.
Is Edwin Jackson/ Matt Thornton+ Prospect for Colby Rasmus
not very intriguing? If we had comparable players, would that not be a great trade for us? I don’t hear much of Rasmus, just Beltran, BJ Upton, and Pence. It would just seem as though we could make a better deal than Jackson, Thornton, and prospect for Rasmus..
I got Venters fever.
I think that'd be equivalent to
Beachy/O’Flahrety/X named prospect(depending on what they want).
Shrimp, Steak, Liquor, and Pasta
.
I'd say that's pretty accurate.
Statistically Beachy would be closest (worse than Jackson slightly), but C. Martinez (much better) and Gearrin (much worse) are closer to Thornton’s numbers this year.
I would do Lowe, Gearrin, and maybe an A- prospect for Rasmus. I don’t know Rasmus’ contract situation, but what would be the problem with acquiring him?
I mean a veteran well traveled version of Beachy, a statistically lesser Martinez, and a prospect sounds like a good deal to me
I got Venters fever.
by Cody Arrington on Jul 24, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I apologize
I’ll answer my own question
He’s a lefty
He’s pretty awful against LHP
I got Venters fever.
by Cody Arrington on Jul 24, 2011 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Gearrin doesn't have negative value.
He’s cheap. He doesn’t have much positive value either. Lowe probably still has negative value. The best thing in the package he proposes is the A- prospect. He apparently doesn’t realize that an A- prospect is Minor or someone equivalent like Delgado.
Adam Rubin on Beltran...
http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/30298/beltran-discusses-al-aversion
Willing to go to a contender (including Braves), but wants to stay in right and really doesn’t want to go to back to center field.
"Baseball is the only place in life where a sacrifice is really appreciated."
could wren just be trying to
cripple the giants and phillies
by driving up the price for him?
Frank Wren needs to stop worrying about getting a RH batter
he just needs to worry about getting someone who can flat out HIT the ball on any given day. Michael Bourn is exactly what this team needs. A speedy defender in center, he’s a perfect leadoff man which we badly need, and he knows how to HIT. Hes right around .300 with a pretty good OBP and that is all that really matters. Stop worrying about the RH,LH issue and just get a guy who knows how to hit the damn ball. Im fine with Beltran although i dont necessarily want him. Even BJ Upton because he needs a change of scenery. Just get a hitter.
by Dwalk1217 on Jul 24, 2011 5:39 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I really don’t think we have to worry about anyone of our top 4 going anywhere. Wren is very cautious about top prospects and in reality Beltran isn’t worth a top prospect anyway.
If the Mets truly want something for him then they will be backed into a corner. They can ask for Brown or Wheeler or Minor all they want but the Braves, Giants, and Phillies all know that if they wait till the deadline they won’t have to part with them.
I would offer Hoover and a borderline top 20 prospect.
Here’s why: Beltran has a clause in his contract that he can’t be offered arbitration so he won’t net any draft picks for the team getting him or the Mets for that matter. The Mets know that they won’t get anything if he leaves after this season.
Agreed
But the contract clause is semantics. No team would have offered him arbitration even without that clause because arbitration would guarantee he would be paid at least $18 million, probably over $20 million.
Still the Mets know that if they want anything for him they have to try to trade him.
It’s not like they can hold out for the 2 draft picks.
Yeah good point. A lot of Mets fans say “We don’t have to trade him. We’ll just hold on to him and sell tickets and watch good baseball.”
My response: That would be dumb.
I have a feeling they trade him for a lot less then what people think. At this point I think that even Hoover might be overpaying for him.
He’s a good player but he’s a 2 month rental.
I think any of the below are fair game
6. Carlos Perez, LHP
7. Brett Oberholtzer, LHP
10. Paul Clemens, RHP
11. J.J. Hoover, RHP
12. Zeke Spruill, RHP
That is how the Talking Chop ranked the guys in our system. I can see Oberholtzer or Clemens being the next tier down the Mets would be interested in.
the problem with all of this is is that if we dont get Beltran, the Mets are going to ship him to the Giants or Phillies
and we just fell behind even more. Our offense needs a major boost. If the Phillies get Beltran, we have to make a move or else our chances of making it to the WS just got that much harder. Personally, I’d rather go and get Upton ASAP because the Rays have said they are pretty much going to get rid of him and they are not looking for a deal that will blow them away. Just saying.
I agree
Some poeple on here have said that they would be happy for us just to make the playoffs . I don’t agree with that take on the rest of this year . And after watching the way we have played here after the All Star break so far , we may be in trouble just to win the wild card . There are teams behind us that are good at heating up in the second half of the season (Rockies , D-Backs). Then you have the Reds , Brewers , and the cinderella team this year , the Pirates who are all playing decent ball . It wouldn’t take but a bad week or two of baseball for us to let this Wild Card chase tighten up . If I were Frank Wren , I would do my best to go get whatever I am gonna get , personally for me it would be Upton and an extra reliever , and start putting some distance between us and those other teams A.S.A.P and maybe try and play ourselves back into position to compete for the division again . After tonight , we are back to 6 games back of the Phillies . They are getting some of there more important players healthy with the likes of Lidge , Madson , Victorino and Oswalt . We are suppose to be getting Chipper back tomorrow night which will help . And Uggla continues to look like he is coming around . A few of you have said that Heyward is heating up , but , I have been watching the games on Sportssouth and FoxSportssouth , and it still looks to me like he is still struggling .
The starting pitching is gonna be good . And the bullpen , with the exception of Proctor and Linebrink will be great . And even those two are decent enough to , for the most part , let the games get away from us . Wren , pull the trigger . Make that deal for a bat . We do so well drafting and scouting . Let’s go ahead and pull the trigger and deal one of our young studs and get a winning streak going .
Wow
Seriously? You really need this explained again?
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 2:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Nope
I don’t need anything explained to me . I don’t want to be sitting here late in September thinking "Well , we will get ‘em next year " . I really don’t think anyone else on here does either . It’s like that old saying goes that poeple say when they become reluctant to do something . “How will you ever know if you don’t try ?” We have some of the best prospects in the Majors . Why not take an unproven talent and trade it for someone who can upgrade this team . I know not everyone agrees with what I am saying , and that’s ok . I don’t expect everyone too . But I know that the Phillies , Giants , Brewers , Cardinals and other teams wouldn’t hesitate to make a deal . Especially if they had the talent to use to upgrade their team via a trade using some of their prospects . Obviously everyones top prospects are gonna be off limits . But we have several that we can dangle in front of someone for them to salivate over . And if it can get us to the WS with a shot to win it , then I am all for it . Sorry if you don’t agree .
I guess you do
The playoffs are truly a crapshoot. They have been since the advent of the Wild Card. Even with the Yankees reaching the World Series a number of times in a row, their opponent often came from differing paths, and the Yankees were not always the best record in the league in those years, even.
Last season, the Braves entered the postseason with an infirmary instead of a roster. They were playing guys in the field who should have been borderline to even be on a playoff roster yet were garnering starts in the postseason. Yet they were a bounce or two and a call or two away from beating the eventual World Series champion.
I just don’t like the idea of “a deal just to make a deal”. If the right move’s not there, or if acquiring a RH bench piece is the only move made, I think people here have built themselves up so much that they’d be disappointed, yet you get a normative second half from Jason Heyward and Dan Uggla and that’s better than any trade chip you could acquire. I just hope Wren doesn’t get caught up in bidding wars for someone who would only be a marginal upgrade to the team and trade away solid prospects.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 4:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I hear you
I can understand what you are saying . But it wouldn’t be a deal just to be making a deal . If they are gonna just make a move to get a bench piece , I would rather they didn’t . If they could get Upton or Pence , it would be for an everyday player . So it would be a deal to get another productive starter in the lineup . Personally I think Upton would be a better option considering the price we would have to pay to get him . The Rays have already stated that it wouldn’t take much to acquire him . We can keep Schafer on the team and pinch run and spot start with him when we face a RHP for Upton or give him a start over in LF when Prado makes a start at 3rd when Chipper needs a day off . Or the same can be done with Heyward if he continues to struggle . Upton can play all three outfield spots . He has speed , good defense , hit’s with some power and can drive in some extra runs . His RBI totals for this year are near or at the top of any of our guys right now . And again , it wouldn’t take a whole lot to get him . So chances are , could send them a package deal and probably get Upton and possibly even Farnsy , who they have said that they would be willing to trade . In 40 innings , his era is under 2.00 . I think it’s like 1.98 or 1.99 . I would send them McClouth(if they would take as a partial replacement) , and maybe Ascencio and Minor and see if they would take them . But it may not even take that much .
Upton isn't going to be that cheap.
I doubt he is cheaper than Beltran in the end. They are pricing him as “not a rental” which means that even though Beltran is better, he’ll cost as much.
Nowhere near that cheap
It’d cost major prospects to get Upton. Like I mentioned elsewhere, they’ve offered him up to drive up the cost, which means he comes off as a “low cost” option that ends up costing more than if you’d have called before they put out this word.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Can't seem to find the post again .....
but I believe it was on MLBTRADERUMORS that the Rays GM stated flat out that it wouldn’t take much to make a deal for Upton .So I am assuming that it would take considerably less to get him than it would to get Beltran or Pence .
That's my point
You make a statement like that, all of the sudden 7 teams call you rather than 2, and you start to pit those 7 against each other in terms of offer until one of them overpays to the point where it’s nowhere near “buying low”.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jul 25, 2011 11:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you
I know they do that to get as much as they can for what they have . I’ll admit that you are dead on with your point . But I still believe that all these guys are good businessmen and when it’s all said and done , that Upton will be a cheaper deal to be had than Beltran or Pence .
Beltran update.
•
Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes the Rangers are pushing hardest for Beltran, followed by the Braves and Red Sox. The Giants and Phillies appear to be fading, Sherman writes (on Twitter).
•The Rangers and Giants appear to be ahead of the Phillies and Braves in pursuit of Beltran, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (on Twitter). As Crasnick points out, everything can change quickly.
•There isn’t much confidence within the industry that the Mets will obtain a top prospect for Beltran, according to Newsday’s Ken Davidoff.
Conflicting reports on who’s pushing the hardest. But I agree that it doesn’t look like they are going to get that top prospect.
I think they will wait ....
towards the end of the month , close to the deadline , and maybe the price will drop on what the Mets will take for him .
•The Mets have been turned down on requests for Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, or Arodys Vizcaino of the Braves, Zack Wheeler or Gary Brown of the Giants, and Domonic Brown or Jarred Cosart of the Phillies, reports ESPN’s Jayson Stark. Stark says the Mets are telling teams the Beltran deal isn’t about money, and the team that offers the best players will get him
.
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