Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds Series Preview
by moorebraves on Jul 22, 2011 9:50 AM EDT
in Series Previews & Recaps
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PrintAfter splitting a four game series with the Rockies in Denver, the Braves travel to Cincy to take on the Reds. Atlanta will play a three game set at Great American Ballpark before coming home to take on the Pirates early next week. After a come-from-behind victory, the Braves find themselves four games back of the Phillies in the NL East.
The Reds are now just 11-17 in their last 28 games and have fallen under .500 to 48-50. That record has them 4.5 back of the Brewers in the Central and 9.5 back of the Braves in the Wild Card race. Though they are a compelling team at the plate, the Reds are rather unimpressive from the mound. Their team ERA is twelfth in the National League and their starters’ ERA is good for fourteenth. Their bullpen has been missing Jose Arredondo recently, on the DL with a strained right forearm, but he will be returning to action against Atlanta on Friday.
The Reds’ lineup is a scary one. On any given night Dusty Baker will put Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, and Jay Bruce into the heart of his lineup card. We can hope that JJ and Beachy bounce back from rough outings to shut down these big bats.
Braves fans will get a look at Jonny Gomes this weekend as well. Gomes is a name that has come up in trade rumors surrounding the Braves. It is hard to track just what Frank Wren and company are doing, but Gomes is a player that the Braves could definitely use. He is a right-handed bat that has some power and could come in to help in the outfield. Although his average isn’t "good" by any stretch of the imagination (.215), he gets on base a fair amount more than Jordan Schafer and the OPS of .748 is a major step up.
Friday 7/22/11 7:10 PM
Jair Jurrjens will face off against Bronson Arroyo in game one of the series. While Jurrjens had a poor outing during his last start, Arroyo can’t seem to get it together in the month of July whatsoever. Arroyo is one of those highly paid pitchers that I can’t recall ever actually being any good. On the year his ERA is sitting at a hefty 5.57.
Saturday 7/23/11 4:10 PM
Derek Lowe will go up against Homer Bailey in the second game of the set. Lowe wasn’t great during his last turn on the mound, but has won three of his four starts since June 29th. Bailey, meanwhile, has lost three of four since returning from the DL on June 26th.
Sunday 7/24/11 8:05
In the final game, the Braves will face their old NL East opponent, Dontrelle Willis. Brandon Beachy will take the mound against the former Marlins star. To be completely honest, I wasn’t even aware that the D-Train was pitching in the Reds organization. I can’t help but like that guy, but it would be great to see him get taken for a ride on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.
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Let's take 2/3
I’m happy to get out of Colorado with a split. That’s a tough park to play in.
Cincy’s similar in terms of being an offensive park. I’d be thrilled to come home with a winning road trip.
I didn’t realize Willis was still pitching. Seriously.
"Insert witty and/or funny quote here" ~ The Person Who Spoketh Said Quote.
Same here
on all accounts. we should be able to get 2/3 with our bats finally coming to life
You shouldn’t sip liquor.
-justincredubil02
no, Jack Daniel is whiskey.
-ChopMaster
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while."
Aim high boys - let's have a Sweep! :-)
(hey, a gal can dream)
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
I like it!
Sweep!
We need momentum heading into our huge 4-game series against the hot Pirates. (I still can’t believe it’s true.)
"Insert witty and/or funny quote here" ~ The Person Who Spoketh Said Quote.
Thinking sweep as well
But my hopes have been tempered by the fact that Lowe is pitching the afternoon game. Doesn’t do well in the heat. He’ll get all hot, sweaty, & blistery.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Willis
They just called him up last week. He looked pretty good too. He’s been in their minor league system all year.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Here’s hoping that yesterday’s game get’s J-Hey going. Our offense would look fairly daunting if he got hot.
Stupid Phillies get the stupid Padres while we have to play the stupid Reds. Luckily, this weekend will be one of the few times for the rest of the year that Philly has a definitively easier opponent than the Braves. Our schedule gets much easier, while Philly still has to go out west again. They have to play the Giants twice, STL, MIL, ARZ, CIN and us twice.
Arroyo always reminds me of Derek Lowe… Dependable, durable “innings eater” He’s had 3 or 4 good years in Cincinnatti.
Poor Dontrelle
Why did they have to provide a mug shot that was taken 2 inches from his face?
Sometimes...
I wonder the same thing.
Considering it takes 5 seconds to take 100 pictures digitally, you’d think some guys would have better photos…
Sure, some don’t give a hoot, but there are some awful ones out there.
"Insert witty and/or funny quote here" ~ The Person Who Spoketh Said Quote.
We get a break because the Phillies are at home… seriously. The Padres are a far better team on the road for some reason.
Cincinnati scares me a bit. Their offense has beat up on some good pitchers this year. Willis is just the sort of lefty that our offense struggles against. And the Saturday game is a day game with Lowe up for us, and we know how Lowe is with hot weather. The Reds have consistently under-performed their Pythagorean this year; right now they’re four games under it.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Arroyo has had 7 full seasons, including this one. He hasn’t had a 2+ fWAR season since 2008, and 3+ fWAR season since 2006. Despite 3 ERAs under 4.00 in that stretch, he’s never had an xFIP under 4.00 for a season and has had an FIP under 4.00 just once. He hasn’t been worth his salary since 2008. Yeesh.
Here is a little Reds fan's based scouting report on Gomes:
The would fans would happily trade him for “a bag of pretzels.” The manager seems to feel he is an everyday player, when he is a platoon player at best. He has been pretty horrible for quite awhile, but he is a clubhouse favorite. Management loves him and the players love him.
Sounds pretty much like the kind of guy the Braves love personality wise. Let’s just cross our fingers that Fredi doesn’t end up loving him so much that he’d play more than he should.
"Baseball is the only place in life where a sacrifice is really appreciated."
My boss is a big reds fan
And he wouldn’t be broken up if they were to trade away Gomes. He’s honestly a little confused why the Braves would want him (assuming rumors are true).
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research." - Albert Einstein
"Consider them rolled." - Jim Delany
by 6 seconds of hell on Jul 22, 2011 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Gomes is killing LH pitching
.340/.446/.547. Might be a good platoon with McLouth for when Chipper is out, and a good RH bench bat otherwise. As long as we don’t give up too much for him.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Not to nitpick here, but...
Although his average isn’t “good” by any stretch of the imagination (.215), he gets on base a fair amount more than Jordan Schafer and the OPS of .748 is a major step up
I’m not sure its fair to compare the OPS’s of a leadoff hitter who plays CF, and a more powerful corner OF who plays in Great American ballpark. One wouldn’t be a replacement for another. Furthermore, I don’t think total OPS is going to be a measure that defines Jordan Schafer moving forward…that metric will be OBP.
I almost said something, but then my guess is people are hoping he’ll replace Jordan in the sense that McLouth will take over Jordan’s spot in center.
"Baseball is the only place in life where a sacrifice is really appreciated."
Ugh
Switching McLouth in CF for Schafer is like settling for the fat, ugly chick after dumping the smoking hot amputee.
by pancanbra on Jul 22, 2011 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'd for hilarity... and truth...
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 22, 2011 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions
My thinking exactly. Sorry for the lack of clarity. You are correct in that gomes and schafer are not comparable except for that Gomes could be our fourth outfielder instead of Schafer after Chipper comes back and McLouth (presumably) moves back to center.
"Braves, your offense, WOOF!!!" -Kevin McAllister
Biased analysis at its best.
You’re completely overlooking that Bronson Arroyo is a better guitarist than Jurrjens. You’re totally ignoring that entire data set. How many albums has Jurrjens dropped? That’s right. None. That gives Arroyo a +1 CAR (cover albums recorded) above your precious Jair.
It’s the 21st century, people! Sabermetrics isn’t going away! Embrace it or die.
TheLetter2: East Coast Boogaloo
by TheLetter2 on Jul 22, 2011 11:01 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You're one of those guys... I really wish you worked in my office.
I really think we’d get along great. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 22, 2011 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions
You get a rec for that
Although I suspect that if you were to put Jurrjens on drums…
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I would make a prediction... and I feel pretty good about this series... but I am going to have to agree w/ the 2 for 3....
As much as I want the 3 headed llamasaurus, I think we should be happy w/ the two wins. Our offense will struggle for one game, at least… and will explode in another… We’re starting to see a trend and while I can say we’ll take a sweep in Pittsburgh, I don’t feel the same way about Cincy. Just a hunch.
I love our team right now and I don’t want Jonny Gomes. If we pick him up, I’ll be disappointed. We don’t need him, nor do we have room for him. No one will convince me otherwise.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
I wouldn’t mind if Gomes replaced Ramirez on the roster as long as we don’t give anything of substance up for Gomes. Dude can mash lefties and would be a great RH bench guy/spot starter.
I wish we'd have given Wilkin Ramirez...
more than 20-25 PAs before we felt confident enough to make any moves for an OF bat. It would have been nice to see, based on his success in limited opportunities, if he could amass any consistency over 50-100 regular PAs.
He strikes out waaaay too much. But, yeah he has hit the ball well in his few PAs. He’s got good speed, plays a good OF. I like the guy a lot as a bench player/late inning PR or OF sub. But the team does need a RH bat to PH for Nate, P or Schafer late in games.
Wow! The Reds seem to be tearing up the field with their insanely skilled lineup. It goes to show that not only are the players the best of the best, but the person working the lineup is awesome as well.
by mehmetozgur33 on Jul 23, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Out of curiosity...
Is Freddie Freeman our cleanup hitter of the future, or our #3 hitter of the future. I’m feeling confident in saying he will be our offensive centerpiece for years to come, but I’m not sure which spot he will find himself in. One could argue Prado would take the 3 hole once Chipper leaves, but one could also argue Uggla will be our cleanup man when he hits consistently well.
I actually think he’ll hit 5th. Prado, Hey, Heap, Uggla, FF
you know how Fredi loves breaking up the lefties.
Almost as much as he enjoys breaking wind...
FTFY
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Hmmm
I was thinking:
TBD, Hey, Prado, FF, Heap, Uggla
In the future...
1-?
2-Prado
3-Heyward
4-Freeman/McCann
5-Uggla
6-McCann/Freeman
Prado makes too much sense in the 2 hole since he is a contact hitter who can put it to all fields.
Fair enough
But I’m just not sold on Heyward being consistent enough to be our everyday 3 hitter. Can’t really afford to have him hit .240 and a be a dead pull hitter.
There was a period last year when he came back from the DL, late July and pretty much all of August…where he was literally “Man on Fire”. He was hitting the ball to all fields, and hitting it HARD…and drawing walks as usual.
I can bank on a 21 year old with his tools and eye for balls/strikes that his consistency will improve.
I hope you're right
He has many more holes in his hitting than FF at this point though and his health has always been an issue.
Has anyone noticed how similar their rookie year stats are?
JHey: .277/.393/.456/.849
FF: .279/.349/.474/.823
They’re both already above average defensively at their position (and I would argue that FF is a top 3 1B in the NL).
Damn, the future looks bright.
I don’t understand how Heyward’s selection at the plate digressed after his rookie year though. I mean sure, it’s a bit hard to improve upon .394 OBP, but he swings at some of the ugliest pitches now. He had one of the best eyes in the league last year.
I don’t think his bat speed is back where it was. I don’t know if his shoulder still hurts, or if he’s flinching because he’s afraid it will hurt, or if trying to compensate for the injury messed up his timing. He seems to be doing a lot of guess hitting.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I’m not sure how much his bat speed has to do with his pitch selection. He is swinging at some bad pitches.
True, but he may be doing that because he’s guessing at what the pitch is. Sometimes hitters who have timing problems try to get a “head start” on the pitch, but to do it, they have to commit to the swing before they see the pitch.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I'd love to get gomes as a bench bat
But I don’t see what good comparing him to Schafer does, as Gomes would not be taking anyone’s job.
An outfield of Gomes – Mclouth – Heyward would be atrocious. Any ball not hit to Heyward would be tough to stomach.
"Venters is throwing circus pitches up there. It’s a circus. I was like, what the hell did he just throw me?" - Hunter Pence
the thinking was
Chipper comes back. Prado moves to left. McLouth moves back to center. Gomes>Schafer as a fourth outfielder from an offensive standpoint. I understand that is a leap of reasoning that I should have clarified and that they aren’t comparable in any category other than that they’re outfielders. I just hate seeing Schafer at the plate these days….
"Braves, your offense, WOOF!!!" -Kevin McAllister
Roster move: RHP Cory Gearrin has been optioned to Gwinnett and we have recalled RHP Cristhian Martinez from Gwinnett.
Proctor is out of options, so he can’t get sent down, but put on waivers. While for most of TC this is a no-brainer, one of the things that makes this organization what its famous for is its loyalty to players…especially those who turn down offers from other organizations to wait for a spot in the bigs while figuring himself out in AAA.
While most people probably honestly don’t care that this in all likelihood is the scenario at work in Proctor’s situation, he’s obviously odd man out once we add another piece and Moylan comes back from the DL.
I can honestly see if Moylan comes back in the middle of August, say w like 2 weeks left before rosters expand,
us sending down C Mart or Gearrin, whichever one is with us at the time, and keeping Proctor for 2 more weeks, and then when rosters expand in Sept, C Mart and Gearrin both returning. We all realize Proctor pretty much serves no purpose other than running him out there when a game is out of hand, but like you said, the Braves are historically loyal to their players, and I could see the scenario I laid out happen, as much as I don’t want it to.
It’s not impossible to outright Proctor off the roster, but there are two hurdles to clear: (1) They’d have to run him through waivers, and (2) because he has more than three years of ML service, he could refuse the assignment and become a FA. It’s possible that the Braves have already requested waivers on him and someone put in a claim. If so they know that if they try to waive him for the purpose of removing him from the 40-man roster, they’ll lose him (but be stuck for most of the remaining salary).
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Good to see a C-Mart back in town
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
No Schafer or Uggla again tonight
Tonight’s lineup @ CIN (7pm SportSouth): Prado 5 Heyward 9 McCann 2 Freeman 3 Hinske 7 Gonzalez 6 Conrad 4 McLouth 8 Jurrjens 1
Reds just put Rolen on the DL
So he’ll not be a threat this series.
by AnEternalEnigma on Jul 22, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions
I’m not sure he would have been much of one even if he was playing.
"Venters is throwing circus pitches up there. It’s a circus. I was like, what the hell did he just throw me?" - Hunter Pence
Still...
Todd Frazier is a lot less of worry to a pitcher’s ears than Scott Rolen.
by AnEternalEnigma on Jul 22, 2011 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
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