Braves Coaching Staff: As If Stats Don't Matter
by gondeee on Jul 19, 2011 11:22 AM EDT
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It's hard to argue with a manager who has guided his team to the second best record in the National League, and what seems to be a commanding Wild Card lead... but this is the blogosphere, we will argue at a wall if we don't like how it's just standing there all flat and motionless. So then many people will have an argument with how Fredi Gonzalez views his team, or more specifically, his leadoff hitter:
As he and his coaches gathered in the clubhouse long before the start of Monday's series opener against the Rockies at Coors Field, Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez asked who had the highest on-base percentage among Jordan Schafer, Nate McLouth and Jason Heyward.
When his coaches quickly responded, "Schafer," Gonzalez chuckled because he had held the same belief before he opted to look at the stats on this humid afternoon in Denver. This proved to be a case where the numbers didn't match what these coaches felt they had seen over the past couple months.
"Their [numbers are] all about the same," Gonzalez said. "But you feel like Schafer is doing so much more."
Many of you probably just screamed at the computer screen. That's a typical response. Before we go any further, here are some stats:
| Player |
Season OBP |
OBP batting 1st |
OBP batting 2nd |
| Jordan Schafer |
.295 |
.295 |
- |
| Jason Heyward |
.319 |
- |
.324 |
| Nate McLouth |
.347 |
- |
.307 |
| Alex Gonzalez |
.259 |
- |
.235 |
| Martin Prado | .320 | .321 | .328 |
| Dan Uggla | .263 | - | .302 |
The real problem is that the Braves just don't have a lead off hitter. Schafer has the tools to be one, but has never really shown the consistent production to bat at the top of the lineup. But because he has the tools (read: speed) somehow seeing is believing when it comes to the Braves coaching staff. As Fredi put it:
"You feel like [Schafer] will do something," Gonzalez said. "I don't know if it's that stolen-base threat or what."
Can we officially state that Fredi Gonzalez manages by "feel." I get that one guy on the coaching staff is managing by feel, I get that the coaches and the manager are on the players' side, but someone in that clubhouse has got to be a foil to the "feel" and point out that while he's good at scoring runs once he's on base, Schafer's simply not on base enough to score enough runs to justify being a top of the lineup hitter.
It has defied all statistical convention that the Braves have gone 31-and-16 since Jordan Schafer was recalled and placed in the leadoff spot, having only been 26-23 before then. Are our stats deceiving us? Should we be feeling more?
To further infuriate the sabermatricians among us, the horrible on-base combo of Schafer leading off and Alex Gonzalez batting second has produced a record of 11 wins to only 3 losses. It's as if the rest of the team understands that they will have to do the bulk of the heaving lifting in those games.
So maybe stats don't matter. Maybe the feel of the game trump the facts on paper. The Braves coaches are all experienced baseball people who have been around the game for a long time. Maybe the mental psyche of the baseball player needs to see a speedy leadoff type guy in the leadoff spot, and so when Jordan's batting first everyone else feels better about going to the plate.
This has GOT to be one of the strange unmeasurable quirks of baseball. The Braves have been winning more, while getting on base less! Seriously:
| Month |
W-L Record |
Team OBP |
| March/April |
13-15 |
.298 |
| May |
17-11 |
.326 |
| June |
17-9 |
.290 |
| July |
10-4 |
.315 |
So it must be pitching, right? Wrong. Team ERA from March to July has gone from 3.11 to 2.91 to 3.24 to 3.75. So it's not immediately clear that the pitching has gotten drastically better and offset the lack of on-base percentage.
Truly strange. Until these numbers start to be proven in the results, the Braves stat-heads will continue to bang their heads against the wall. Fredi Gonzalez will continue to bat Jordan Schafer in the leadoff spot, and perhaps the Braves will continue to win in spite of what the game on paper says. Hopefully someone in the front office is looking at the stats and plotting a move that will put the universe back in order, because no one in the dugout is. At some point this Jordan Schafer leadoff honeymoon will end.
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No hope for this man. No hope at all. Parrish either, since he likely also thought his OBP was higher. This is their job. Knowing these things matter. I know them and this is not my job. Jesus…
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 11:34 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 2 recs
what matters more.... OBP or wins?
I will grant you a team w/ high OBP = a team with > wins…. But if the formula ain’t broke… maybe we’re looking at the formula wrong.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem is that we have to think of winning game as an input-output function of some sort if we want to analyze it methodically. We don’t have to analyze it as such, but if we want to, we have to look at what leads to teams winning.
One way would be to look at previously-observed data and try to correlate it with success. The problem with this approach, though it may be highly informative, is that there is a lot of noise. Team success comes from so many places that trying to isolate any one to make a real determination would be really difficult.
The other way, then, is to analyze the aspects of the game theoretically, and see which ones would matter. Outs are your big finite resource in the game. OBP is essentially out prevention. To that extent, OBP should inform wins pretty strongly. Does it? I’m sure someone has done a correlation or something more intense. But I don’t think that we’re not looking for the right formula when we say that getting on base (i.e. not making outs) is really important for winning a game.
by Ivan the Great on Jul 19, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Well put... I agree with this and while I appreciate the perspective....
I still love Schafer… and I’m firmly entrenched on his bandwagon. :-D Great points though and you’re right, at this point in his career, Schafer makes more outs than a Leadoff guy should… but am I the only one who’s seeing him make needed adjustments at the big league level?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I've been out of it for a while
But here’s what it boils down to-it actually hasn’t changed at all even though I haven’t been around very much. Batting order does not matter a ton. Schafer leading off is anything but ideal, but it’s not really that important. He’d certainly be better suited as a 7-8 hitter, maybe batting 9th with the pitcher batting 8th, but the degree of importance isn’t that great.
What Schafer HAS helped with is run prevention. He’s an above average defensive player in CF, and that’s very significant. There aren’t many people who can do that. I can’t argue with his presence in the line-up right now, while we’re short personnel, because his glove is an asset, and there’s nobody else who you would play over him to balance out that value. That’s a big part of the reason we’re winning games-our defense looks a lot better with him in center and Nate in left. We shouldn’t pretend like putting him at the top of the line-up has sparked our offense very much-we’re still just hoping to find a way to get 3 or 4 runs a night.
The issue comes when you get to the point where Chipper is healthy again and the team is forced to make a decision. That’s when you’re going to slap your forehead at Fredi and his decision making.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
by Bronn on Jul 19, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
You're able to articulate my thoughts better than I am.
Thank you… and why aren’t you around more. we miss you stealing chips… I think the fame has gone to your head.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Was on the road for a while
And then went to a wedding, and then been busy as hell getting caught up on shit since I got back. I’ll get back to regular commenting shortly.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
We'll welcome you with open arms.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
What REALLY bothers me
Is that if Fredi doesn’t know this, he probably does NOT know other things he really, really should.
Examples: Think of all the times you thought David Ross should be PHing for us, and it turns out to be Wilkin Ramirez or Diory Hernandez. We used to think that it was some taboo about not using the back-up catcher as a PHer, but it’s possible that he does not KNOW how good David Ross is.
Consider this-Brooks Conrad right now has the fourth highest wOBA on the team. I know, know, know, KNOW that Fredi has no idea about that. It’s not a very significant sample size, but, well, it’s the exact same wOBA as he had LAST season. Think about all the wasted opportunities that were given to Brandon Hicks or Julio Lugo to start at third base instead of Brooks Conrad.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Feel free to tack on other examples of things Fredi probably doesn't know but really needs to
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Fredi is a bad manager
He runs his players too aggressively, bunts with position players too often, and can’t manage a bullpen. Countdown until Venters and Kimbrall’s arms fall off…
to be fair
I Think he has gotten a lot better concerning all the bunts
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Nope.
Not harsh enough… He should be given the DFA treatment… I don’t care if a team picks him up at league minimum salary… I do not want him on the Braves MLB roster. I don’t really want him on the MiLB roster as they may accidentally play him in a game that will costs us a MiLB win.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
But Brooks cost us the Playoffs!
If he played 3B over those “defensive replacements”… We would burn him for that.
You know I’m playing tongue in cheeck here… I love Brooksie but the better example is anytime he picks up the BP phone and thinks Proctors name.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
“He’s an above average defensive player in CF”
Eh, not really. He has the tools to be an above-average defender in center, but right now his Magellan routes bring down his tools. He’s average.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / MLB Daily Dish / Capitol Avenue Club / twitter: @CapitolAvenue
They've cost him a couple of times
But he’s still making a ton of plays out there. I think he’s above average, and I don’t think it’s at all a stretch. He could be elite if he were reading balls and routes better.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
he could be, but hes not
right now he just looks better because he has more range than Nate McLouth.
Wins are clearly more important. But to get wins, you have to score runs. To score runs, you have to get on base.
This little 2-month anomaly is nothing more than that.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously there is a lot more to winning a baseball game than statistics.
by JimH on Jul 19, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, but you use the stats as a tool to aid in your observations. As a package (not singling out any one particular stat), they will help you assess your deficiencies and measure how trade candidates can improve things.
So from the sound of it, this staff is ignoring one of their tools.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
And there is a lot more than using your eye. No question numbers help, anything opposing that statement is incredibly ignorant, as is the manage of the team stating that .295 and .347 are similar and thinking the guy with .295 has a higher OBP. Stupid and ignorant. Obviously his eye is not a good evaluator.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:16 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let's do some math with these numbers
The Braves have 66 games remaining. Assuming 4 PAs/game that is 264 PAs remaining for the lead off spot (maybe a bit low, but reasonable). A 0.295 OPB puts a player on base 78 times while a 0.347 OPB results in 92. That is a difference of 14 events. Spread that over 66 games and its .21/game or 1 every 5 games. If we had this debate for every spot in the line-up it would be crucial to fix it, but if only 1 spot can be improved, it may not be enough to make a change.
With this small of a difference for the remaining regular season, I would think that a stat converting # times reaching base and # of runs would be more important.
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research." -Albert Einstein
by 6 seconds of hell on Jul 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
/banhammer
Don’t bring logic to a debate about feelings.
Seriously, well stated. And I’d like to subscribe to your newsletter.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I know, I know
Logic is not always well received around here.
I think that alot of people see these averages and say “Oh that one is higher, so he should play in this spot,” without stopping to put those averages into real world context.
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research." -Albert Einstein
by 6 seconds of hell on Jul 19, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
thank you
Exactly, Eric Hinske probably has a higher OBP than Schafer…it does not mean I want him leading off or playing centerfield.
The fact remains that speed does matter – it matters on D and it matters on runs scored. OBP does not mean that the player scores from first on a double or scores from 2nd on a single – it only means he gets on base. And yes while getting on base does mean a greater likelihood of getting into position to score – it does not mean that you will…especially when you are a slow runner.
…..still Bourn probably would provide an upgrade at the position because he possesses both a higher OBP AND has the same or better speed and defense in the same position as Schafer.
by Santaklose11 on Jul 20, 2011 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I’m not reay arguing for Nate to bat leadoff. I’m more stating that Fredi not knowing who’s OBP is higher and stating that their numbers are similar is straight ignorance. There’s no way around it.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is fair
I feel the manager should know the actual numbers, but that doesn’t mean all of his decisions should be based on them.
"If we knew what we were doing, it wouldn't be research." -Albert Einstein
by 6 seconds of hell on Jul 19, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I do not disagree w/ this statement.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
This...
I would have less of a problem if Fredi knowingly uses Schafer, warts and all, at the top of his line-up.
Instead, he doesn’t check the stats? Really? I have nightmares about Schafer-Gonzo leading off.
That said, he’s been a relatively successful manager. Can it all be luck?
"Insert witty and/or funny quote here" ~ The Person Who Spoketh Said Quote.
Well stated...
Schafer Gonzo at the top makes me want to slap him in the pee-pee and make sure he doesn’t procreate…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish we could do it just as an experiment...
That enormous gap between Nate’s OBP batting 8th and his OBP batting elsewhere is driving me crazy.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
this is true
and stats do matter greatly (as does a good concept of the real life impact of those stats). That they did not know that is troubling……
yet I have started to notice the subtly intelligent (and very important) things that Fredi does do – such as resting McCann appropriately.
by Santaklose11 on Jul 20, 2011 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Mr. Gondeee, as you are well aware, I'm a Schafer homer.
I love the kid. He’s in the spot he will be in for the next 10 years… He’s growing into it and has been stepping up as part of the TEAM that is the Atlanta Braves. For months, years even… This team has defied metrics and definable characteristics… Are we in for a crash? Perhaps… but our team has leadership in the key areas and youth infused throughout and everyone is learning that when one team mate slumps (maybe even as long as a whole year (Hello Mr. Uggla, Heyward)) another will step up and carry the team. McCann has done it. Chipper has done it. Freeman is doing it. Hinske, Conrad, Ross… Everyone knows their role and plays the game the way it is meant to be played. With passion, pride and hard work. Even though someone is struggling, we’re not getting into dugout spats (hello Chicago Cubs) and our Pitching, while not otherworldly, has been setting the ton for every game we’ve played.
I would seriously like to see a spread of Points against and points for… I’d venture to say we’ve limited points against to the point where we may be tops in the league… I’d venture to say we’re middle of the pack in points for… of course those are feelings based on limited observations by a faithful Braves follower from overseas…
At the end of the day though, our players know their roles. Fredi has seen to that. For all his faults, there are no wishy washy, ho hum, I’m not sure who plays where today situations. Every player knows their role and how to perform it… (Except maybe Proctor… well… anywho.. moving on) Schafer is a leadoff hitter. A stellar defender who is learning on the job at the highest stage… and I’ll say he’s not embarrassing himself or our team.
Those all of course, are my feelings… with very little statistical backup… but. :-) I love how i feel about our team right now and very little will change that. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
Pro:
He’s fast
Great range in CF
SB success rate around 75%
high contact%
Con:
Low average
no power
way too many strike outs
Unimpressive Minor league track record
I can confidently say he’s not very smart. He got busted for HGH, he broke his wrist and didn’t tell anyone, and he’s bound to run into a corner outfielder one day.
I wouldn’t mind taking a chance on this guy, but… in the leadoff spot? There are no words about having your worst OBP guy get the most at bats.
That Heyward guy is pretty good.
by another simpsons avatar on Jul 19, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldn't say worst.... but I get your point...
And smart… I may disagree there too.. HGH, ok, ya got me… his wrist… How many times have you heard of a youngling sucking it up because he wanted to be there for the team… Ok, he SHOULD have stopped playing… but then he’d have to listen to chats from Chipper about how he always mans up to play the game everyday… even hurt… cause… “everyone hurts”…
This is not me bashing chipper… just adding a few facts to the fire… Y’all know me as a Chipper lover. :-)
You are on point w/ your Pros and Cons… but how many players had a less than successful MiLB career but were tagged as future All-Stars and lived up to their potential?
Fewer than those who have failed, yes… but why can’t Shafer be one of those “late bloomer” types who has everything click and he sets the world on fire?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I still don’t understand why this guy who could be a “late bloomer” is getting the most at bats. I really hope he gets traded to a team out of contention that really wants to believe he’ll be a leadoff guy. Right now he makes the braves worse sticking in the leadoff spot.
That Heyward guy is pretty good.
by another simpsons avatar on Jul 19, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I for one... do not want to play against Jordan Schafer.
At worst, give him the rest of the season in AAA… even though I have mentioned him in trades… rosterbation is pointless and I do it to cleanse my mind… I don’t really think we should rid our roster of him.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
He didn't seem to be making any further progress in AAA, though
Perhaps if he was sent down with a list of definite things to work on, with a definite recall date, it would work out better. But he seems to resent having to play in AAA.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I think Schafer is a solid glove and his offense will get better
I agree that he will be a contributor to the team but batting him lead-off while trying to catch the Phillies is just a bad idea.
I think schafer wasn’t doing very well in the minors because he’s just not that good. When you watch him with atlanta, you can see him running the bases and playing the outfield, things that can actually make you think he’s better than his stats. To judge his minor league performance, you have to go on stats, which are just as poor in the minors or the majors.
MASN Announcer: "Ususally they have what they call here 'the privilege,' and that's what bobby cox calls it when he let's the veteran guys swing away on 3-0. This is not such a hitter."
Jason Heyward: Single up the middle, ballgame.
Yeah, I know… I just can’t help the feeling that we might be missing something. If you put aside the wrist-injury time, we’ve basically got a little bit of 2009 and a couple of months at Gwinnett this year to go by. Not really that big a sample.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
There’s not much to go on… throw 2010/2009 out the window. He wasn’t healthy because of the wrist. His stats before the injury were good.
Twitter:ChopAttack
Holy God. If I read another article in which Fredi is saying “I don’t know” or asking the friggin media about the game he just managed, I’ll have a brain anuerysm.
I miss Bobby.
by Fatvirus on Jul 19, 2011 11:37 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Since Schafer was inserted @ the top spot in the lineup
We’re 31-16. Before then we were 26-23.
Couldn’t really care less about the rest of it, if by “feel” you mean that he goes with what he does when we win, then by all means – continue to rack up Ws in the face of blogosphere hatred.
by theatlfan on Jul 19, 2011 11:38 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
You said what I tried to say in alot fewer words. Well done. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Such an idiotic statement. Freeman and McCann get unbelievably hot and all the pitching (besides Proctor of course) is excellent but lets justify the hot streak on a under-performing offensive player who barely gets on base. Come on people you are better than that. Its why wins are such a bad stat for pitchers.
are personal attacks really required here?
Opinions are just that… you don’t have to share in it…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions
The statement was dumb. I don’t know the person it wasn’t a personal attack so let’s not go all PC when people are using bad justifications.
Then my post would be one huge idiotic statement...
not sure if you read it… but my final point was… if it ain’t broke… don’t fix it… I’m sure some of what he said was tongue in cheeck as well… regardless. Everyone is entitled to their “idiotic opinion” and i’m sure they don’t need you to point it out to them as such… I haven’t had any beef w/ you and i’m not trying to start any… Just want to enforce a little etiquette in our critiques… Constructive criticism means alot more than negative attention grabbing statements. Just my two cents. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Look when people are putting really bad information out there its perfectly fine to say its dumb. Justifying players performance with W-L records is incredibly bad thinking. We don’t need to hold hands and dance around it.
by Ultada on Jul 19, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
The problem is, however, that the history of baseball is marked by strange unmeasurable quirks and unpredicted outcomes, both at the individual player and team levels. To deny this is what seems to me to be truly dumb.
The saber-heads are really saying do this / do that because the statistical odds of a successful outcome will be increased thereby, and so it is, therefore, what should be done. This assumes (among other things) that past statistics are even somewhat reliably predictive of future performance, which simply may not be true in any given situtaion or may only be true something like 50 or 52% of the time, generally.
This is not by any means to say that sabermetrics are bad or should be tossed aside as meaningless, but simply to say that “feel”, hunch and a solid baseball man making a decision based on whatever he thinks is the right call is not necessaily wrong.
Yeah, this IS an idiotic statement.
You say “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it” like it implies Schafer batting leadoff is the key to our winning. It isn’t. We’re winning IN SPITE of that. So if we can get better, why don’t we? You need every edge you can get, especially in the playoffs.
Follow me on Twitter: @hashtagbaseball
agree
There’s a better way to express opinions. I personally think there is merit to both sides, McCann and Freeman and our pitchers have been outstanding (Proctor’s recent meltdowns aside) – but 2.5 months of solid winning records have to have credit to a lot of folks, Schafer included. I used to coach a college team, and “feel” has a lot to do with how a team does. I’m not saying that Fredi shouldn’t at least recognize the power of stats, but I’m not sure I like the idea of tossing out feel for numbers. But, I will agree that he probably could express his views a bit more clearly.
I’m sure it has nothing to do with Freeman, McCann and now Uggla starting to hit. It was all Jordan at the top!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing that gets me
is that people are very quick to point out some of the things that went right while completely ignoring the things that went wrong while Schafer was in there. Chipper slumped the entire month of June; the entire OF of Prado, Heyward, and McLouth (who was doing well in the 8 hole) all spent time on the DL along with Beachy and Hanson. McCann has been hot all year (including a period from the start of the year where he was hitting something like .800 with RiSP). I have no idea how Uggla’s .179/.250/.379 June gets called on as to why we’ve been winning 13% more games with Schafer in there, but whatever…
Look, I realize that there are a lot of reasons why a team wins – some are quantifiable, some simply aren’t. You can’t quantify how much of a boost a veteran gets when a wide eyed youngster is making plays – and that’s what Schafer is doing. When he’s on base, players are paying attention, because more times than not, he scores – whether he’s knocked in or if he had to just manufacture the run himself. He is covering approximately 1/2 the OF when he is out there and has no problem getting dirty to get the ball.
The kid is (generally) doing the little things that helps a team W, but we’re so narrow minded on the end-all, be-all OBP that we simply stick our head in the sand as to what he is doing… while praising Uggla because he’s finally had a 2 week stretch of above average hitting.
Nothing about Schafer’s offensive lines say he is helping the team.
Take any of his slash rates. It’s not just OBP. He is below average on AVG, below average on OBP and below average in SLG.
All he has going for him are his steals.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions
And his defense. Whether it’s average, above average, or spectacular, it’s still the best we can muster on this team.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
But we aren’t talking about his defense here. That’s not even a debate.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
True, my bad.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
this.
and I find it telling that when you mention non-quantifiable, intangible factors that young Jordan seems to bring to the team’s success, justincredubil02 ignores that point completely in favor of a purely statistical analysis. sheesh.
What factors are those?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
he feels like a f'ing success
and he hangs out with the other guys on the team, who in turn, feel like a f’ing success…
he's directly responsible for Uggla turning it around
Jordan Schafer’s Speed once went to Mars – that’s why there are no longer signs of life there.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Well writen...
As you pointed out it doesn’t win the logic argument, but I’d have to say I agree with Fredi. The games have had a different feel with Jordan at the top.
So you should try to sell it on Ebay....
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Stat-heads seem to bang their heads into a wall...
anytime a sub-optimal decision that at most means 5 runs a maybe 1 win is made over the course of a season. Of course, that is indipendent of defense in this case.
Especially considering the data is done assuming they way they performed before is how they’ll always perform…
Exactly
Statistically, when you aggregate all the stats in the league, optimal lineups give you an extra win. This, of course, requires a calculation that assumes the players would have the same performance regardless of where they hit and holds all intangibles constant. Who knows, maybe one day a player asks the coach to be moved down the lineup, maybe he tells the coach that he feels better batting 2nd than 8th. As a result, that player has a mental block that makes him a worse hitter. My point, I’ll take a person who is with these guys every day picking where they bat than a stat-crunch that erases all unknown factors, holds them constant, and still only comes out with a 1-win advantage.
The root problem with sabermetrics...
… is that it assumes (because the math doesn’t work any other way) that each plate appearance is an independent event, with outcome odds that remain relatively static for a given pitcher or hitter. In real live, that isn’t really true: pitchers and hitters review their past performances and make changes. There’s a constant one-upmanship game going on. Sometimes a hitter finds something and then improves his performance. Sometimes pitchers figure out something about a hitter and make that hitter get worse.
I would agree with the statement that the Braves currently seem to play with more confidence when they have Schafer in CF and batting leadoff. There’s certainly a psychological aspect to the game that current sabermetrics has no approach for measuring. A lot of that has to do with the fact that Schafer went on a hot streak when he was first called up. But trends usually become obvious to everyone, given enough time. If Schafer continues to in the .190/.280/.300 range, eventually that feeling of confidence is going to dissipate. This is one place where I think the stats have a lot of value: if you see that a player’s performance is starting to drop off, you want to get out in front of that problem before it becomes obvious to everyone. Eventually there will be a game where Schafer strikes out two or three times in crucial situations; then the boo-birds will get going and the snowball will start down the hill.
I have a personal theory that everything that happens in baseball is the result of an accumulation of small differences. It may not seem to mean much to say that a player is, say, two wins above or below replacement. But how many times have we seen a division won or lost based on two wins? These are things that are hard to get a grasp on if you don’t dig into some stats.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
by Cornutt on Jul 19, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
A few thoughts and observations
1. Jordan Schafer is batting leadoff because he’s the closest thing this organization has to a classic lead-off batter. That would seem pretty clear, excepting the occasional argument about moving Prado up there. I do think it’s good to have a guy like Martin hitting #2 since he can do more with the bat… when Schafer actually does get on base, Prado leads the charge in getting him around. Somehow, it’s working better than it did before.
2. That said, I gotta believe that come playoff time, this team will be exposed for its general lack of run-scoring… which has to start with getting runners on base. That’s exactly why I’ve been openly advocating for a guy like Michael Bourn to take over the leadoff spot (and no, I’m not trying to turn this into rosterbation). My point is that if it’s kinda working with JS, it oughta be that much better with a “true” leadoff guy (i.e., OBP of >= .350) and blazing speed.
3. So my fear — coming down to the trading deadline as we are — is that the Braves will think they have a comfy lead in the wildcard and decide they don’t wanna upset the applecart. To that thought, I have one phrase: complacency loses.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
Fair thoughts... all of them...
my one response… and yes, i’m starting it w/ a “what if” but…. What if Schafer continues to improve w/ Prado in the 2 hole… If he can get his OBP to .390 consistently… wouldn’t that be worth not moving the farm for a player we may already have?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Wut
Yes, it seems the most likely outcome at this point is that Schafer will miraculously add 100 points of OBP totally out of the blue.
Forget the past...
focus on the future… he may not bring up his OBP for the season… but how hard would it be to imagine him to keep walking at the rate he is and adding a few more hits to the mix…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
uh
An 8.3 BB% is nothing special. His BABIP is 55 points higher than his BA. He’s just not very good and it’s unlikely that he’ll ever be an above average player.
fair opinion. I disagree and will continue to.. Even disagreeing with the great Jacob Peterson (below)
But again, we are all entitled to our hopes and dreams… and Schafer is one of those kind of guys I just want to succeed and I believe he can make the needed adjustments in the second half to be a solid player… He has time before he has to be great or superstar… (not saying he will even get there)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Just looked it up – he’s gonna be 25 in six weeks. Got some time, yet, but probably needs to start a ‘breakout’ year pretty quick.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
agreed.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s the problem; we just don’t know. The broken wrist basically cost him two seasons, so we really have little in the way of reliable stats to go by. And he’s still young enough to have a potentially high ceiling. So who is the real Jordan Schafer — the guy who went on a hot streak when we called him up, or the guy that we’re seeing now? I’m glad I’m not the one who has to make that call.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
i'm not suggesting
That we give up on him entirely (although I’d trade him in a heartbeat for Michael Bourn or Beltran), but a team potentially contending for the WS has no business trying to blood a player who is a longshot to ever become above average. This team should be doing everything it can to win games immediately, and by batting Schafer leadoff Fredi is doing exactly the opposite.
So your firmly in the Mclouth camp?
or do you believe Prado bats 1. Where do you stand? (sorry if I missed it)
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Prado
Is by far our best leadoff option.
Prado
Heyward
Chipper
McCann
Uggla
Freeman
Gonzalez
McLouth
That’s presuming Uggla keeps hitting like we expected him to. I like the RH/LH balance of that lineup.
I am on board with that
would you just have it
Prado
Heyward
McCann
Uggla
Freeman
Gonzo
McLouth
Shafer
Until Chipper returns?
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s actually REALLY hard to imagine. You can’t just say “Forget about everything that this guy has ever shown us at any level of professional baseball, and pretend that he can start all over and magically become a different hitter”
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
better... just remember his AA time... :-)
and the last couple weeks… ignore everything else… that better.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
“the last couple of weeks”
I don’t think you really want to use that in your argument…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably not... shush you.
Let me be a good collie and stay blindly faithful to my master.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely. .390 would be outstanding. And that’s where your own scouts have to take critical looks (obviously the coaching staff isn’t doing this), and ask “Can he get there?”
And 100 points is truly a lot to ask… maybe in 2-3 years? But probably not 2-3 weeks.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
Fair enough... but if he can pick it up in the second half and have at least a .360 OBP...
over only the second half.. that would be better than what we’ve gotten in the past… and allows Prado to bat in a position suited to his skills.
again, my opinion. and I agree… I’m a homer and should probably drop my argument… :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, let’s just see how that’s going…. 4 games since the ASBreak (and as I’m typing this, I haven’t looked; so my intent is not to slam you or cherry-pick games… I hope it’s going well, but I do recognize that there’s an inherent SSS problem here).
Monday vs. COL: 0-4, 3 punchouts, one BB. No runs scored.
Sunday vs. Nats: 1-3, sacrifice, 2 SB, 2 runs scored. 1BB, 1K. That’s excellent.
Saturday vs. Nats: 1-3 (double), No runs scored, 1BB, 1K.
Friday vs. Nats: 1-4 in the laugher, 3 runs scored, 1BB, 0K. Reached on error.
So in the last 4 games, 3-14 (about .214), but .500 OBP and 5 times scoring. Huh. That could account for the reactions of the coaching staff right there.
That said, the Phillies shut him (and others) down: 1-12, no walks, no runs. Ouch.
Let’s see him load up on less-than-stellar pitching — we don’t see the Phils again until September.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
i'd rather not
have a deficiency masked until it’s too late to cope with the problem and he’s costing us games in the postseason…
so what you're saying is... I could be on to something on the improvement channel?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 20, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Don’t draw big conclusions from small samples.
And don’t knock managing by “feel” if that incorporates watching every pitch and every play, and factoring in that which is not precisely quantified. Maybe Alex Gonzalez sees better pitches when hitting #2, and feels better up there when it’s his job to advance a runner instead of put one over the fence. Maybe Jordan Schafer’s fielding range gives pitchers more comfort out there, and the catchers feel it too and they can more easily prompt the pitchers to work from strength.
I like the way Fredi has worked his line-ups. With so many injuries, he’s had to experiment. Jason Heyward batting lead-off? Why not try it, he’s got a great eye? Freddie batting clean-up already? Why not, the way he’s hitting?! Fredi seems more flexible than Bobby, less set in his ways, less conscious of a pecking order. Good for him for finding a way to keep everyone on their toes.
Fredi has got this team 2.5 games out of first, despite far less firepower than the Phillies. So what if he’s not a geek? He’s a good baseball man who has been getting the most out of his talent. Manager of the Year isn’t out of the question at this point, pretty good for a rookie manager.
Or maybe managers just don’t matter much? Gonzo & Schafer at 1,2 was utterly terrible and yet people are like we got teh winz so it must be good…. Maybe just maybe Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann, and excellent pitching had much more to do with it.
Correct. This season emphasizes that managers have little effect and lineup construction is not all that important. However, it is worth doing things correcty. Braves are wining in spite of Gonzalez, it is pretty clear.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:05 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
in spite of what specifically about Gonzalez? His lineup construction that you just admitted in unimportant?
Here is what I like about Gonzalez: He seems very similiar to Bobby Cox in terms of being even keeled and having a level disposition, no drama attitude, and maintaining a positive winning attitude and cohesive team dynamic.
He doesn't show the fire Bobby does though...
Not saying I want him kicked out of games… It would be nice if he was paying attention though.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I always thought Bobby did that mostly for entertainment value to the fans and, secondarily, to try to fire up the team.
You really don’t think Fredi is paying attention?
honestly, I don't watch enough games to put an opinion together...
but i respect our Mods here… and their opinion. They seem to believe he’s watching butterflies more than baseball…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions
bad click / failed to finish / continued:
To me, these attributes are much more important to the team’s success than saber-based decision-making.
Nobody is asking for saber-based decisions. Show me one post here that even remotely states that. Knowing when to pitch Scott Proctor and Jonny Venters has nothing to do with sabermetrics. Neither does sac bunting in awful situations. Knowing the on base percentage of the leadoff hitter and his potential replacements is something every manager on every level should be doing.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 1:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Remember the bases loaded squeeze attempt with Hanson at the plate?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Very little, but it’s something. He is not actively doing anything to help the Braves win games. There are occasional correct decisions, but they are easily outweighed by the more common awful decisions — not even speaking directly about lineups either.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 1:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
All the hit and runs that have resulted in guys being thrown out
Those actually really DO hurt. The issue is, we can’t log and track just exactly which are hit-and-run and which are just failed stolen bases.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
But if it means that little, why is it worth making such a big deal about
it’s a difference of what, 4, 5 runs for a full season. Big whoop. If it’s working, that says something. And it’s not like we’ve got better options wasting on the bench to start instead. I’m kinda with Bronn on this being a much bigger issue if he flubs a healthy lineup when Chipper returns and maybe another player’s been added than right now. Ignorance of the #s themselves aside of course, which I’m gonna go with the more reasonable ‘trolling’ idea over the less reasonable ignorance (cause he can’tpossibly be that ignorant of them can he).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
It doesn’t matter a huge deal right now, but you’d like your manager to know better, else you’re just hoping he’s not making even more stupid mistakes as things trickle down. It’s not like Fredi’s idiocy extends only to line-up construction. It’s starting Julio Lugo over Brooks Conrad, it’s calling for a hit-and-run with Alex Gonzalez at the plate, it’s putting in Scott Proctor in a tie game with anyone else available in the pen.
You never want a manager to reveal “Hey, I really don’t know what’s going on half the time.”
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
i'll tell you why it matters...
in spite of luck/our stronger players picking up our weaker players, Fredi’s continued mentally deficient decisions may not cost us an overwhelming amount of wins in the SS of 162 game season, BUT in the playoffs… you bet your ass it will.
In a do or die scenario, where a season can end because of a 3-4 game losing streak you absolutely have to have every advantage that you can, and an ignorant manager who doesn’t understand or value these quote “unimportant” facets of the game WILL burn you.
It happens in baseball routinely, and in other sports even more weaker managers with better teams get “out-managed” by a more methodical manager who may have less talent. I hope that Fredi pays a little more attention when one of Schafer and Gonzalez’s 2-25 On base streaks staring him in the face in a short series.
by cirela20 on Jul 19, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
THIS x a million
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point... I love having Freeman 4th as I see that as his position for now and the future..
Heyward and Freeman at 3 and 4 is what i’ve dreamed about since I’ve heard about these two coming through the farm. Very nice…
Schafer
Prado
Heyward
Freeman
for the future really sets well with me…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions
The Braves have been winning more, while getting on base less!
Just a guess here, but I assume that our slugging percentage is way up. It just “feels” (sorry) like we’ve been hitting more HRs and 2Bs over the last few weeks.
Freddie has, for sure
Can we keep the Rockies on the schedule for the rest of the year?
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
McLouth vs. Schafer
This is really what the debate boils down to… McLouth is drawing a lot of walks hitting in front of the pitcher. He hits a HR everyone once a while, but he doesn’t get a lot of hits. McLouth isn’t nearly as good at stealing bases or fielding his position as the young CFer. I’ll take Schafer in the lead off role given the options we have right now and hope that he gets better.
Does anyone seriously believe McLouth will ever be any better than he is right now?
Twitter:ChopAttack
he doesn't have to be
He’s a hell of a lot better than Schafer, and since this team is capable of winning the WS this year it’s insane to handicap their chances by trying to develop a player who seems unlikely to ever be an above average regular.
I know that Shafer’s OBP is lower than McLouth’s, but just from watching this team, they seem different with him at the top of the lineup. Maybe it’s the stolen base threat, maybe it’s his hustle out of the box and in the field. We can sit here and argue all day about this, but the team is winning and Shafer is more than likely our CF of the future because of costs. McLouth will be gone next year and I’m sure part of the reason Shafer is batting leadoff right now is because they want to get him experience. And as long as we’re winning there is no reason to take him out of that spot. Everybody wants to complain about numbers, but i’m pretty sure the only numbers that matter in sports are WINS.
by michaelcooksey on Jul 19, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions
Maybe
It’s the fact that Freeman, McCann and Uggla are on a tear…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
This isn't so hard to figure out, folks.
Schafer has hurt the team (offensively) in the past 6 weeks, but the rest of the team has done more than enough to cancel out that damage. Remember, McCann and Freeman have been on fire for much of that period, and even Uggla has come out of his slump. Sure, there’s some superficial cognitive dissonance in seeing a terrible hitter batting leadoff for a hot team, but baseball is a team sport, and one player’s performance just doesn’t make THAT much of a difference.
The Braves are—clearly—winning in spite of Schafer, not because of him. They will likely continue to do so, though perhaps not at this rate. They can easily make the playoffs playing him every day, and that may even be the most realistic option given what certain replacements may cost in trade. But that does NOT mean that Schafer is a good player, any more than the Braves’ good record in the first half meant that Dan Uggla was having a good year.
Defending an individual player by pointing to the team’s Win-Loss record is inane, beside the point, and often destructive. Good teams have bad players. The Braves are a very good team, and Schafer is a 4th outfielder at best. There’s no contradiction there. Replacing him with a higher-OBP player would make the team even better than it currently is.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 11:52 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
What problem?
A) it’s temporary, and B), the team has more than enough talent to make do with a crappy outfield.
Remember last year, when the Braves had two of the worst OFs in the game all year and still made the playoffs? It happens.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
I usually agree with what you write Jacob... Usually..
but on this, I cannot agree. Schafer was seen as the savior a few years back… a legit prospect w/ 5 tools in his tool box. He hurt his wrist and got caught w/ PEDs… Got it… but that doesn’t mean a young guy can’t realize his potential… I would like to get a scouts read on what they see in Schafer now… I’ve not read anything on that…
As of right now, I agree w/ you that he is no better than a 4th outfielder… but he’s the 3rd best OFer on our roster. IMHO..
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
The plan for Schafer was to spend at least a half season getting at bats in AAA. This is his first 100% healthy season in 2 years. He was rushed up b/c of necessity. I think the Braves organization believes he’ll improve.
Twitter:ChopAttack
There is no evidence at all
that Schafer will ever be more than a 4th OF. If you want to believe he will become more than that, more power to you. But just recognize that there’s no evidence backing up that belief.
If you agree that he’s no more than a 4th OF now, why do you disagree with what I said above?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
blind hope? belligerent pride? I don't think I really disagree w/ you... I just don't want to agree with you...
at least not on this… at which point I’m sure you’re ready to just slap me in the head and tell me to move on…
Honestly though, do you not believe Schafer will fulfill the promise he showed only two years ago? You don’t think he’ll be a legit CF in the MLB?
Last question… why would you think that…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
No, I don't think he will fulfill his promise.
It was actually 3 years ago, at a much lower level (AA), when he last showed serious promise. It was also before a major injury that appears to have sapped much of his power and hitting ability.
Since then, he’s had lots of time and opportunity to show progress, and he hasn’t shown any. When he shows he can put up a decent OBP for an extended period, then maybe I’ll believe in him. Until then, there’s just too much evidence that he sucks.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough... and I will never try to pretend I'm more versed than you in the play of our youngin's....
I think I’m just blindly hoping that his last three years are an abberation he becomes the player we wanted him to be back then… When we were ok letting Andruw go…
I would like to state right now though. If/when Schafer figures things out this year and he’s our starting CF next year… Will you at least let me stick out my tongue and say I told ya so? :-D
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Ha,
if that happens, you won’t be the only one saying “I told you so.” Though you’ll probably be the most polite one.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
I think that was a complement... :-) Thank you. :-)
Gotta keep the voters happy ya know.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m looking at AAA 2009-2011. In 2011, when healthy, he was a .308 OBP in AAA. When you adjust that for major league equivalence, his current .295 OBP is about what you’d expect (if not higher). He is what he is, which is an out machine with speed and decent defense.
with speed and decent stellar defense…
FTFY
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s above average, no where near stellar.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m going with this one. Above average.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
I'm ok w/ this. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Hes not stellar
above average at best, stellar belongs to the Gutierrez of the world
You get a rec
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
This statement will not be received well...but who cares.
This incessant Fredi-bashing needs to stop. The only thing that any of the truly anal (yes, I’ll use that word since it seems some would rather side with statistical soundness than congratulate winning) of you out there ever get to see are the way he fills out a lineup card, handles pitchers, handles pinch-hitters, organizes defense, and calls specific plays.
What you don’t see is how he gets players prepared, motivated, and focused on a team concept. It pains a lot of you that can’t measure that. But then again, I’m sure Alber Pujols doesn’t complain when you pull him from your Fantasy lineup…
did any of you really pull Pujols from your fantasy line up?
yall are nuts.
Just kidding, I agree with you though. Stop the Fredi hate (although Gonzo batting second for so long was really hurting me inside)
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Plenty of reasons to FrediHate....
But just as many to be proud of where our Braves are… Our hating on Fredi will only sooth our own mind and not make a bit of difference to what happens in the organization… But it is getting a little tired when we are hating on the coach of the 2nd winningest team in baseball…
A few times it’s ok to FrediHate:
Anytime he puts Proctor in a game….
Anytime Gonzo is bats higher than 8th…
Anytime Brooksie plays SS (I can’t even joke about that thought… eeeeck) or the field longer than a game at a time…
Anytime O’ventbrel is used in a losing game or blowout
Anytime he even looks at his MiLB roster and contemplates calling Kawakami up…
I’m sure there are others… but those should do for now. :-) I think a post of things we can hate one would be moderately entertaining… :-P
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, if Fredi would make a reasonable amount of correct decisions, or not tell us that he has no idea how his players are actually performing, or if he wouldn’t ask what just happened in a game, or if he wouldn’t waste Kimbrel and Venters with 5+ run leads, then talk about how they are being over used because he uses then when the team is behind, if he would actually argue a call every now and then instead of strolling out to the umpire for some tea and crumpets, and if he just generally displayed a sliver of baseball knowledge, then I would not dislike him.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way...
For all the ejections Bobby Cox was given, his winning percentage in those games was .385.
Thanks
for posting today’s irrelevant to the conversation stat.
But, since you brought it up, do you know the record in all the games AFTER the ejection? Chipper has quite a theory on that.
http://blogs.wsj.com/dailyfix/2010/07/23/bobby-coxs-addition-by-subtraction/
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions
The theory goes, that in most games where Cox was ejected, the game was more or less out of reach, or Bobby saw something in his players that he did not like.
So, he would go out, make a scene, get tossed. Sure, the team would go on to lose that specific game many times, more often than not. But, the games following the ejection, the team would play differently and win not just those games, but many times, go on a sustained winning streak.
It’s an interesting theory.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Basically, he's getting tossed mostly in games we're losing anyway...
not many 50/50 games, or games where we have a 10 run lead. No manager gets tossed in games their team is blowing out.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Exactly
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Another great example of of why guys who’ve been in the game for years keep getting jobs and number-crunching nerds remain in their moms’ basements.
I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com
by cbwilk on Jul 19, 2011 11:56 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Hunches are fine.
There are many decisions in any given game that basically come down to coin flips. For those, a manager should go by hunches.
It’s when a manager goes by a hunch when he has plenty of evidence to make an actual, informed decision that people criticize him. And they should. If someone used a hunch in place of evidence in any other field, he would be criticized. Why is baseball different?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
What about the many times a coach goes against the grain...
and succeeds… we praise them for outside the box thinking… if they screw it up… we skewer him for not following “the book”… :(
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Hitting on 15 against a 6 might work too. Doesn’t mean at all that it was the correct decision.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
#aggressive
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised you're not advocating not playing Blackjack altogether...
since the odds don’t lend themselves to winning anyway.
well this is dumb
Follow me on Twitter: @hashtagbaseball
Every manager in the league makes idiotic statements like this. Tony La Russa once said that he wouldn’t bat a player OBPing .700 in the leadoff spot if he was slow because he would be “clogging the bases.” Ron Gardenhire bats a middle infielder in the 2-hole virtually every game, regardless of what kind of hitter that player is. These are considered 2 of the better managers in the game.
The people signing the checks have decided that they would rather deal with that than someone who can’t control his team. There’s been numerous times in sports where a manager who doesn’t have the respect of his team leads to a disaster, such as the Diamondbacks last year and the Timberwolves this year. It isn’t fair to completely ignore the intangible benefits that a manager may or may not bring to a team. These are human beings after all.
When Chipper comes back...
I expect Schafer to move down to the 8th spot. I think Nate is the odd man out. Schafer has really improved the defense in CF.
Twitter:ChopAttack
Does defense mean nothing to you folks?
For a team that relies heavily on pitching to win their games and has 3 out of their current 5 starting pitchers pitching to contact, you cannot undervalue having exceptional defensive players at CF and SS.
I am one of the few that thinks Jordan’s bat will improve moderately and that his speed somewhat makes up for his current lack of hitting. I do not think McLouth’s ability with the bat in the leadoff spot would outweigh his deficiencies in CF to warrant taking Jordan out of the lineup.
As for Freddi’s comments, I think you all read way too much into some of the things he says off the cuff after games. A lot of what he says is tongue in cheek and lackadaisical, but that does not reflect his approach in games. I love Bobby Cox as much as the next guy, but he’s retired. Get over it. He’s not coming back, and there aren’t any Bobby Cox 2.0’s out there. We are winning…lots.
Defense means nothing when quoting a player’s OBP.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Whether or not Jordan deserves to be in the lineup (against RHP with Chipper out, sure, why not). The issue is batting him leadoff and not even knowing that he has the 2nd worst OBP on the team, in the batting order spot where OBP is most important.
This may be the more articulate phrasing of Gondeee's original post...
I think I now understand what everyone is arguing and I cannot disagree w/ this statement in the least.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep, and I’ll be curious to see if the beat writers continue to pursue this angle. I personally did an “oh really?” reaction on hearing this.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
[Correction, Uggla and Gonzalez both have a lower OBP for the season than Schafer, but Uggla is his own special case]
I am right w/ you on Jordan improving. I believe in him...
If I had a choice of Jordan or Nate… My choice is Jordan 10 out of 10 times… And yes.. i just don’t like Nate McLouth… there.. I said it… I feel dirty. :(
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
So you have stated your bias towards Schafer and against McLouth in this post. Gives you anlot of validity when looking at analyzing these two….
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 12:23 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't look for validity... just honesty in advertising...
I try not to cloud my thoughts for you guys… even though I try to do it “politely” and non-confrontationally…
One qualifying statement… Just because I dislike McLouth… He’s still a Brave and I like Braves over most other players.. so he’s not far down on the list of players I don’t mind watching. :-) How’s that for cloudy thoughts. :-P
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't
Nate’s salary is $7million this year and he has not shown any improvement since coming over. I’m sorry, the slight improvement from last year to this year is only because he’s healthier and got the sound of Jason Heyward’s foot steps out of his head…His defense is not where Shafer’s is and if men are on base he is sure to roll over a ball to first base or pop out to third. He is what he is most likely going to be for the rest of his career. Shafer still has upside…I’m with you, i take Jordan 10/10 times here.
by michaelcooksey on Jul 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Apparently Peter Gammons reported this morning on 1560
that the Braves are preparing to make a 3 for 1 offer to the Astros for Hunter Pence. He speculated it was Teheran or Minor as the center piece
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:21 PM EDT reply actions
http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-astros&tid=84673
This is where I initially saw it. Didnt listen to 1560
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
so its off a rival teams message board
makes me feel 100 percent that its pure garbage conned up by Stros fans
maybe. Sounded legitimate to me though
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 12:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate to use twitter as a source but
speculation like that would have been a near TT on twitter. But i havent seen anything like that on my TL
I could see Minor for Bourn or Delgado for Pence (rather have Bourn anyway – better fit IMHO). I can’t see Teheran for either. I hope.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
There is no way Teheran gets traded.
Period.
Minor, on the other hand, is very likely to be traded at some point in the next year or so.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Minor, Myke Jones, and Hoover for Pence?
Sounds fair.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions
If we don't make that deal, I'd kick Wren in the shin.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm probably low balling it
that might be a better fit for a Bourn than Pence. I guess it’d depend on how highly they’d value Minor. But I’d be happy with Pence, in CF.
Prado
Heyward
Chipper
Pence
McCann
Uggla
Freeman
Sea Bass
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
in that case... I honestly see Heyward in CF... unless he's on the DL...
then in which case… Pence would play RF.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Pence started in CF
in the bigs, that’s why I’d guess him there before Heyward. No knowledge of how his D has gone since so no clue who’d be the best option, which I could even see Prado (he’d be better than Melky was at least).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm better than Melky in CF.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Your better than Melky in alot of ways…we all are. He’s pretty much the reason for everything horrible in my life.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Well... the Royals version of Melky...
I kinda like that guy… He’s kinda like the Pirate version of McLouth…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
This is like your girlfriend getting implants, AFTER she breaks up with you. I hate her even more. Why couldn’t Melky get implants when he was with the Braves, I mean…you know what I mean.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
so did McLouth get a breast reduction?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I had that in my comment, but deleted it. Nate’s just a weird situation.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions
LoL... fair enough.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d much rather move someone other than Myke, he’s one of my favorite minor leaguers. He’s going to have a long MLB career.
I have a feeling that any “big” trade we make, the team would insist on Bethancourt to be packaged with the pitcher. I’d be OK with a Minor and Bethancourt for Pence deal. Even though, Bethancourt will probably end up being a top 50 prospect, sooner than later.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't honestly think that's enough... :(
and he’s our only legit C prospect… probably not a good move to get rid of him. We should not be in a position to trade from weakness…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
You're right in that that won't get him...
… but any team that offers more is over-paying. First of all, Pence isn’t a young player; he’ll be 29 at the start of next season. Second, most of the buzz around him is based on this season’s performance, and there are some things in his numbers that I’m suspicious of. For starts, he’s hitting for high average despite not walking very much. Second, his strikeouts have gone up this year. Third, his current BABIP is .381, which is clearly unsustainable. To me, it looks like the sort of thing that happens when you play for a last-place team, and opposing pitchers are throwing a lot of fastballs to get the game over with.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I'm wanting to see him up with the Braves too
but if he’s the second best prospect in a deal for a bat as good as Pence, I’d be happy.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Good point.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
So Minor then
cause it ain’t Teheran.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
If it’s Minor – YES!
If it’s Teheran…no.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Joe Posnanski
Had a fantastic blog/article about lineup positions the other day. Basically, his point (and it is statistically verified) is that no matter what position a hitter hits in the lineup, it has very, very, very small change.
Going from that, it probably doesn’t matter who leads off. Its been working pretty well for the last few months, so why break a good thing?
Here’s the article btw: http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/07/ducks-on-pond.html
Your point is valid overall,
the “why break a good thing” rhetorical question is spurious. It’s not a good thing, it’s a (very slightly) bad thing that is being outweighed by other, very good things.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jul 19, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m not worried about what the optimal lineup will yield us for the entire season. I agree that the effects can be small. The bigger problem is that Fredi’s quotes, lineup construction and in-game management this season suggest that he’s just guessing. And he’s not a very good guesser. Fortunately, over 162 games, his guessing doesn’t have a big impact. However, when the importance of an out is really high (e.g., in the playoffs), all these little decisions that cost us outs or lower out run expectancy start to have a real impact.
That's another point
That Posnanski writes about quite often. Simply, baseball mangers have an incredibly small effect on the game – especially when compared to other sports. With that in mind, and taking into appreciation the fact that almost 100 games into the season the Braves have the 4th best record in baseball, how Fredi manages the Braves doesn’t really keep me awake at night.
I agree with the analysis that the team is winning in spite of Schafer’s performance at the leadoff spot, and that his position in the batting order is not a positive.
That being said, it’s wearing on me that baseball is basically becoming less a sport and more a vehicle for people to constantly complain about everything not being done exactly how it should be. Not just based on sabermetric stats either. All Star weekend was basically baseball culminating in a giant bitchfest about how things should and should not be done. Managers only exist for others to microevaluate.
I personally wish that Fredi and our coaches would look at stats a lot more, and I wouldn’t keep Schafer batting leadoff, but I also know what he’s talking about with the feel he gets from Schafer and the way he plays. There is something to that and the other players feel that as well. If I had just watched Schafer play and didn’t know his stats, I would think that they were better than they are too. Fredi drives me crazy sometimes, but if you zoom out he has the team performing well, probably about as well as you’d expect based on our roster. Now, whether certain parts go south due to insane overuse down the road is another story…..
Agreed for the most part
I think stat geeks are good for the game – they help us realize some pretty important things, but complaining endlessly about things that probably won’t change just gets old. Just think about the silly Alex Gonazlez and Escobar crap that went on for months last year after the trade was made.
but it makes the day go by so well...
:-) at least for those of us on 12 hour shifts… 6 days a week… getting ready for a major inspection…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Any chance Fredi reads you guys and is trolling hard?
and that the coaching staff is having a huge laugh reading everyone’s reactions?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Only if they’re reallllllly bored!
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
That would be the most serious trolling ever.
What stats? haha
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
In a crazy way...
it makes more sense than him thinking some of the things he’s quoted.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Jul 19, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Weeeelllllllll...
I have been wondering if the whole thing is some sort of reverse-psychology gamesmanship. If you think back to the beginning of the season, most of the pundits were picking the Braves to finish in the lower half. It would make sense to soft-pedal and try to catch some teams looking past their series with the Braves. “The Braves? No talent and they’ve got an idiot for a manager… better spend my time looking at video for that Mets series next week!”
Kind of like how Bobby Valentine likes for everyone to believe he’s insane. Oh, wait, Bobby Valentine is insane… never mind.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I’m going to say virtually zero chance. Or was he trolling by batting our 2 worst hitters in the 2 most important lineup spots for nearly a month? Or when praising Scott Proctor and using him in high leverage situations? Or using Venters on back to back days with 4-5 run leads?
Fredi G = ChopMaster.
Mind = Blown.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions
That actually kinda makes sense…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
It's on the big screen in the locker room...
I have it on good authority they love the Sanchez vs Justin sparing matches…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Fredi Gonzalez, the manager of a MLB team
thinks that an OBP of .295 has a similar impact to a .320 or .350. There are no words to describe how dumb that is
I have a ....
Question. A .295 OBP is roughly the equivalent of getting on base 30 of 100 times to the plate,correct? A 320 OBP means 32 of 100 plate appearances.That is between 20 and 25 games ,or roughly 3 plus weeks. If you were a manager with no stat sheets available to you,could you really detect that difference over that period. I suggest we have a pretty good manager of the Braves ,after having a great one.I prefer dumb winners in baseball,than a bunch of guys running around with no instinct and a whole data base available to them.
by mikie baseball on Jul 19, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
That's the whole point is that you can't sense these things
You need to look at stats or you won’t know what is going on.
Okay..
So that is 2 or 3 times a month.
by mikie baseball on Jul 19, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's another issue
We’re winning in spite of Jordan’s offense, and we’re 5 games up in the Wild Card already. Assuming we make it to the playoffs (we haven’t shown anything to this point to prove otherwise) would McLouth’s or Prado’s extra 60 points of OBP outweigh Schafer’s ability to change the game once on the basepaths in a 5 or 7 game series? So let’s say he gets on base 2 or 3 times less than a replacement over the course of an entire series. When he is on base, he has the ability to turn any situation into RISP. That’s huge in the playoffs, and something we’ve lacked for many years.
Not to mention his defense.
Almost asked you to consider his defense... but you took care of that.
Well stated.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
The value of an out is much higher than the value of an extra base when you actually get on base (and there are lots of games where he doesn’t get on base ever). Also, Schafer is barely a break-even base stealer. His base stealing, unless it improves, is not an argument in his favor, in my opinion. He’s also seems to be a very bad base runner for such a fast guy, like running into outs at 3rd base (see, e.g., Nats series) or getting picked off with big leads. Maybe he’s bought into Fredi’s image of him – a fast guy that ‘creates havoc’ on the bases and that leads him to be too aggressive. Fangraphs actually rates McLouth as the better baserunner, and I’m inclined to agree with that.
(Last point, you don’t need to create RISP situations in front of power hitters. Being on first base means you are in scoring position on any extra base hit).
As discussed above, his defense is above average and that’s about it.
For my dislike of McLouth...
It has been well documented here that McLouth, statistically, is one of the best base runners of all time…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
WTF.. i swear
i read specially his ass…..
the exponent in the equation is a matter of preference and "fit" it can vary depending on what the user believes to yield the curve that best predicts a team’s ability to win games.
by Ivan the Great on May 20, 2011 12:31 PM VET
I'd be curious to know
what the change in percentages are for the second hole hitter is based on who is batting leadoff. Granted, that is taking for granted that Chipper is almost always hitting third, but it might take in account the whole “speed on the basepath’s” effect on a pitcher.
Let's end this now....
Schafer whether you like it or not is our leadoff guy. Our record is better since he came into that spot. To all the stat heads sometimes STATS can not measure a players worth to a team. Scahfer is the guy and he will be the guy for the rest of the year. And to all those who say he is a bum for HGH or not telling about an injury. 1. MLB never proved that he took HGH. 2. Heyward did the same thing but he is looked upon as a god even though right now he couldn’t hit his way out of a wet paper bag. 3. He has yet to play an entire ML season. It took Freddie time to adjust and now look. Just chill. We are winning so take a deep breath. Walk out of your mother’s basement and take in some sun. Maybe the fresh air will calm you guys down.
I don't ask for much but all I ask is that you to throw strikes.
by georgiadawgsfan on Jul 19, 2011 12:49 PM EDT reply actions
No one has been criticizing him for HGH.
Freeman is nearly 200% more productive on offense than Schafer (in wRC+), in the same amount of major league time. Freeman’s minor league numbers suggested he would be this good in MLB. Schafers minor league numbers suggested that he would be this bad/average in MLB. Play an entire season of average baseball on a non-contending team.
I have agreed w/ almost everything you’ve said but I will requre that you not look at Schafer’s MiLB time and suspect he will be that type of MLB player. I could be silly saying that… but the injury has had a negative afffect on his MiLB time.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Reply
There have been a few on here if you read through the posts who have criticized him for taking HGH. I’m not saying that Schafer is as productive as FF. All I am saying is give him some time like we gave FF. It took him two months before he got started. Can we get off the minor league numbers. Francoeur’s minor league numbers suggested he would be good just as they do with other players that don’t pan out. Numbers are NOT everything.
I don't ask for much but all I ask is that you to throw strikes.
by georgiadawgsfan on Jul 19, 2011 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Good try... Responses...
1) Ok, whatever…
2) Heyward took HGH or played w/ an injury… be careful how you phrase that.
3) True
One non-numbered point… I want to agree he will be our CF for now and the future… BUT if the team makes a trade… More than likely, Shafer loses his job in CF… I hope I’m wrong though as I love the kid… I don’t think anyone here knows that though.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Reply
Heyward played with a shoulder injury all through ST and he played with a thumb injury last year.
I don't ask for much but all I ask is that you to throw strikes.
by georgiadawgsfan on Jul 19, 2011 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Runs Scored
Schafer has scored 31 runs in 46 games. He scored 5 in the series batting in front of Prado. I cannot imagine Nate McLouth doing that even if he was the lead off hitter instead of Jordan. I am pretty sure that many on this blog will say that runs scored is a meaningless stat. However, the game has changed back to what it used to be before the steroid era. It is important to have a lead off man than can get on base, steal bases and score runs. Obviously, Schafer has a lot of room for improvement when it comes to OBP. He has the scoring runs and stealing bases part. I think the getting on base will improve, especially now that Prado is hitting behind him.
Runs scored are the same as RBI
counting stats that are absolutely meaningless when determining a players worth
Anybody can score with people getting hits behind them
Anybody can rack up RBI if they just get enough at-bats with people in scoring position ahead of them.
haha
this
"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice
by SouthernPanther on Jul 19, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
TEAM runs scored are very important. Individual runs scored… are you serious? It is just a matter of your OBP and who bats behind you. Schafer’s runs should be a whole lot higher if he didn’t generate so many outs.
You can’t “imagine” that Nate would score as much in front of Prado? Why, is it because Nate has a higher OBP and because Nate is a better baserunner… errrrrrrr
The ability to get into scoring position is going to be more indicative of run scoring than OBP alone. A player (not saying Schafer) can make up for a low OBP if he steals lots of bases and hits many extra base hits. I’d take a guy with a .300 OBP at the leadoff spot if he’s hitting 40 doubles and stealing 40 bases a year.
No worries
It wasn’t an argument for Schafer, but an argument against OBP being the here all end all when it comes to lead off hitters. Speed does count for something.
Well, that’s one reason people look at OPS rather than just OBP alone (even though OPS tends to lump different kinds of players together). If you’ve got a guy who maybe doesn’t have a great OPB but does hit a lot of doubles, that will show up in the OPS.
As for the steals… the problem is that a CS hurts a lot more than a SB helps. If you steal 40 but also get caught 40 times, that’s a net negative. As I figure it, you need to have a steal attempt success rate of at least 75% in order for stealing to be a net positive.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
speed benefitting the team’s offensive production and stolen bases are in my view different things and should not be equated, and are both groosly under-rated by the saber-heads. others will violently disagree, I know.
one thing that is clear, is that starting 46 games, Jordan has scored an impressive 31 runs despite quite luckluster OBP, the Braves have won a very high % of those games specifically because of having scored more runs than the opposing teams.
On an unrelated note, since Jordan was called up, here are the numbers for Freddie Freeman and Brian McCann
FF: .305 .366 .546 .912
BM: .347 .422 .639 1.061
That’s why Jordan has been scoring – not because he has some magical know how to make left turns every 90 feet better than everyone else. It’s because McCann and Freeman have been on fire.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Weird...
Last year everyone claimed moving Heyward to the 2-hole is why our offense exploded in May and June 2010…when it was McCann, Glaus, and Hinske going off.
I never made that claim.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously
I don’t even remember that ever being mentioned last year as a reason.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I’m pretty sure last year, we were all praising Glaus and Prado for carrying the offense when McCann couldn’t see.
Heyward was hurt in June, so I’m pretty sure we weren’t citing his 2-hole hitting as the reason for the success. In fact, i don’t think we praised any specific player, but rather the fact that we lead the Majors in OBP….weird….
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I remember a lot of baby Glaus "Haters gonna hate" graphics
And Glausosaurs got to be big in late June. I don’t remember anyone saying that the big thing spurring the offense was the Heyward batting 2nd move.
There was a lot of frustration last year at having such a great team OBP with absolutely zero power. We had a ton of runners but only were an average scoring offense. This year, we’re actually hitting for a lower average, lower OBP, and lower SLG across the board, and that’s despite Nate McLouth improving to respectability and Melky Cabrera leaving town.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
It really is interesting to contrast the offense from last year to this year. This year, it seems like we are one of the best power-hitting teams in the majors (3rd or 4th to 100 HRs, I believe) but we just can’t score runs.
I can’t help but wonder, despite what we all know about lineup construction, that if we had guys who were on base at the top, how many more runs that would generate?
Maybe the difference is that when considering one lineup change, it’s minimal difference, but when you have your top two lineup spots as black holes, it becomes exponentially more important?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, the problem is that we’re going to have the black hole that is Alex Gonzalez in the line-up somewhere. We’re stuck, backed into a corner by overreacting trade fever. We don’t even have a good alternative-Diory can’t even hit as well as Gonzalez can, and Hicks will struggle to post an average over .150 (though he might have similar power). Neither of play defense as well. We’re just freakin’ stuck with that.
We’re not stuck with Schafer though, but our manager is probably going to keep Schafer batting first for the rest of the season since he doesn’t think any of the numbers actually freaking matter. He sees what he sees, damnit, and the team is winning, damnit, and nothing else matters.
But yeah, it’s not line-up construction. We’re getting even worse contributions out of SS this year than we did with Yunel last year. We’re not getting anything out of second base (until lately, knock on wood), and our right fielder has gone from a great, great hitter to “meh.”
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
FG said he doesn't care what he gets out of SS
which I thought was odd until I read Fredi’s bio today and realized he has a son named Alex Gonzalez
That’s almost the attitude you have to have though. Alex is what he is, and any offensive production we get from him should be considered bonus.
That being said, I’m confused as to why Fredi continues to bat him 2nd.
Now with Prado back, those occasions will be few and far between, but it is evident that Fredi sees Alex as our 2nd option in the 2-spot.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you know how many runs we scored last year at this time compared to how many this year?
In fact, if you wouldn’t mind doing the research, I’d really like to see all of our offensive production from last year compared to this year.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Through 96 games, 2010 v 2011
2010: 447 runs v 337 runs allowed [RD: 74]
2011: 394 runs v 330 runs allowed [RD: 64]
We’ve scored 53 fewer runs in 96 games (down .55 runs per game) but we have given up 43 fewer runs.
Thanks…that’s interesting.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions
I love baseball-reference
They actually do that shit for you.
Let’s see, after 96 games last year, we were in first place (56-40), had a 6 game lead on the Phillies, and had scored 447 runs while allowing 373.
After 96 games this year, we’re in second place (57-39), 2.5 games back on the Phillies, and have scored 394 runs while allowing 330. So the run differential, whatever that’s worth, is down slightly.
By position (I’ll now be going by the whole year, since I can’t just do this for the first 96 games of last season).
C 2010: .273/.380/.458 vs C 2011: .312/.385/.519 (Brian McCann is hitting much better than last year)
1B 2010: .248/.346/.422 vs. 1B 2011: .276/.349/.459 (Freeman is a big improvement)
2B 2010: .306/.347/.451 vs. 2B 2011: .186/.262/.356 (So, so ugly)
3B 2010: .284/.374/.443 vs. 3B 2011: .247/.325/.392 (Not just Chipper, but his OBP dropped)
SS 2010: .258/.325/.354 vs. SS 2011: .225/.259/.335 (God-awful)
LF 2010: .242/.302/.385 vs. LF 2011: .268/.341/.445 (We actually weren’t THAT bad in LF)
CF 2010: .232/.329/.339 vs. CF 2011: .232/.314/.320 (Rather similar)
RF 2010: .275/.380/.438 vs. RF 2011: .233/.309/.388 (hard to look at)
P 2010: .140/.192/.176 vs. P 2011: .114/.148/.170 (Pitchers hitting worse, too)
PH 2010: .250/.319/.447 vs. PH 2011: .217/.268/.411 (Bench is also much, much weaker)
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
by Bronn on Jul 19, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Holy crap…good work. Thanks!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions
this deserves a rec in my opinion...
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 20, 2011 8:58 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with you Jim.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 19, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Why not just bat Prado, Heyward, Jones, McCann, Freeman
Or some version of that and put all of your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Inconceivable!
You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Wow it scares the hell out of me that they all thought jordan had the highest OBA.
do they really not look at the stats at all????
"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice
by SouthernPanther on Jul 19, 2011 1:00 PM EDT reply actions
Something seems pretty obvious to me.
Fredi is not being judged on a relative scale against a peer group of ML managers. He is being graded against a scale of Perfect decision-making or bust…
I have been waiting for someone to say this. He is not Bobby, therefore he is the worst manager evar!
No. He’s the worst manager, because he has displayed time and time again that he has no clue what is going on.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
It comes from him asking reporters what just happened in a game that he just managed. It comes from him making quote after quote that is absolutely idiotic. It comes from him not knowing how his players are performing. It comes from his obvious conviction that Scott Proctor is a great pitcher for crucial situations.
Do I need to go on? Or, is your “You aren’t on the team so you don’t really know” argument pretty much all you have right now?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
2 things strike me as extremely disingenuous with what you just said.
First, is that Fredi sticking up for his guys in a post-game interview (including Proctor) is misconstrued by anyone, who let’s face it probably had objections to Fredi since day 1, as his honest evaluation of said player.
Second, is this whole Fantasy-type notion that baseball is only about acquiring talent and placing that talent in a sequence of optimal algorithms. That the other, you know, dozens of hours each week that Fredi spends with the team is a complete black hole and non value-added in anyway.
I’m not talking about Fredi sticking up for his players. That’s a trait to be admired.
A baseball manager’s job is not to spend dozens of hours each week, teaching his team how to play. They have specific coaches for that. The manager’s job is to make the right decisions and to lead. Fredi lacks in both of those departments.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s kind of hard to lead when you don’t even know what your people are doing.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you are confusing “knowing what you’re people are doing” with “knowing what my player’s advanced stats are”
No. I’m not. I don’t care if Fredi knows what his players’ ISO or RC is. I’m talking about knowing what they do. How often do they get on base? That’s not an advanced metric.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he’s realizing the value of how frequently Schafer scores…which at the end of the day (as a result of individual skill or not) is what matters
So, if that were true, why was Nate’s situation any different? Nate was leading the team in runs scored, and was scoring something like 40 or 50% of the times he reached base – but Fredi dropped him to 8th.
So why the disparity?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I certainly believe that the majority of nights that Nate was batting 1st or 2nd we weren’t scoring much of anything (I recall a few nights of post-game threads covering such topics)…
This is true. The offense was terrible then. But that doesn’t change the fact that Nate was scoring when he got on.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t see how he was scoring when he was only getting on base at about .300 OBP and nobody else on the team was hitting…
The same way that Schafer was scoring with a .270 OBP?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Taking at least 10 extra bases with SBs, and of course your favorite ROEs, puts you into better position to score so that you don’t need 2 additional hits to score…just 1 hit.
I don’t blame McLouth for not being given the green light to steal.
BTW, on true steal attempts, McLouth is perfect on the season.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
So this is your defense?
Fredi is mismanaging the player I prefer?
Not at all.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
OBP is not an advanced statistic
unless your name is Jeff Francour
buh-zing!
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on Jul 19, 2011 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
So... he's the third best manager in the league?
Right behind the legondary La Russa and the incontrovertible (what does this word mean) Guillen…
I can buy that. :-)
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
La Russa and Guillen are awful
And make terrible decisions that cost their team runs and games. Like calling hit-and-runs with Pujols late in games or doing double-switches that pull Pujols out of the lineup.
Yet they both have rings (several in Tony’s case). Seriously, I get the idea behind a lot of these numbers, but a competant manager numbers do not make. I think Fredi makes some dumb decisions but the vitriol some people (not you personally, just in general) some fans have for him is kind of amazing
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes I hate him because he runs into outs, can't manage a bullpen, and doesn't understand how a lineup works
All of which are basic premises that a manager should do well.
Do you think they won those rings because of their manager, or because of their talent?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Fact is, they won. I really don’t like a lot of Fredi’s decisions. you all know that I get as mad as any of you about them. But I see the team winning and that is ALL I care about. I see it as a pointless excercise to get so worked up about this stuff. If the team sucked, then I would be barking about it with you guys. Thats all i’m saying
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
We aren’t winning the division right now. Where is an acceptable line to stop settling for something in favor of wanting something more? This team could be a lot better if it had competent decisions being made during the games.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
we are the third winningest team in baseball 2.5 back from the mlb leaders.
We have been rattled with injuries. Nobody wants to be in second right now, but maybe people realize the potential this team has when we are close to healthy.
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I realize the potential that this team, in its current state, has with competent decisions being made in the game.
We could have the best record in baseball, had our manager not made some dumb decisions.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I can agree w/ this statement.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Watching Uggla run into an out on a suicide squeeze and then McCann run into an out on a {delayed?) steal during the first series against the Mets at home was when I started to worry.
Braves are stealing about 56%of bases safely at a 33 for 59 clip. Ouch.
Eh
It’s Freddi’s fault we don’t have the best record in baseball?
Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward would beg to differ.
Sure, some of the players have been underperforming. However, the players aren’t the ones who put Scott Proctor in the game or choose to PH with Diory Hernandez and Brandon Hicks while Brooks Conrad, Eric Hinske and David Ross stay on the bench.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I cant defend Proctor coming in.
I feel bad for the guy because he clearly isnt prepared to be in the majors.
From what I gather he likes to save our best pinch hitters for the 8th and 9th innings. I dont have any problem with that. Sometimes we dont get to a point where we get to use them, but id rather have brooks batting in the 9th then using him in the 6th
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
You’re telling me, that if you were the manager of the Braves with that particular group of bench players, you would never pinch hit with Diory Hernandez and Brandon Hicks?
How then will these players play when you do need them to perform considering the absolute lack of use they would get under your system?
Not when I have David Ross, Eric Hinske and Brooks Conrad on the bench.
I’m not talking about blow out wins. I’m talking about when a hit matters.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure the players would love having you as a manager.
Let’s not forget that you’re managing people, not robots with statistics attached.
I’m also managing to win, not to make people feel good about themselves. They can sit on the bench and make $450,000 for doing so.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
I just cant recall a situation you are talking about.
every time we are in the 8th and 9th in a close game we bring in hinske or conrad.
I can literally remember only one time we were losing by 4 to the Mets in the 9th and he put Diory in and he hit a bomb.
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ross has only pinch hit twice all season. Our second best hitter this year. Our #1 bench bat. Our #1 RH bench bat. That’s probably why you don’t recall it… because it never happens.
You do realize he is the backup catcher, right?
Is Fredi going to catch in the 8th inning if Brian goes down?
Remember that game when the starting catcher got hurt and we burned the backup catcher pinch hitting?
You don’t? Because it basically never happens, ever. And the value you get with PH Ross is dramatically more than the ‘value’ you get by holding Ross out in case McCann gets hurt. Conrad can catch if both of them are unavailabe.
Do you really take issue
with Fredi pinch hitting with Hinske or Conrad over Ross?
That is what you are upset about?
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Hinsek and Conrad are used against RHP, so, no Fredi does not use them over Ross. They are excellent PH options.
He uses Hicks and Hernandez over Ross. They are horrific PH options.
It is equivalent to using Proctor over Ventrel in a high leverage situation.
well I don't want to be seen as standing for Diory, but he
is batting .333 as a pinch hitter this year which is best on the team. So its not really anything like using Proctor over Ventrel.
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Oy, citing batting average in a really small sample size? His wRC+ is 46 this year, which means he is half is productive as the average major league hitter. He is 7 for his entire career. That is not a typo He is a horrific option on offense. For reference, a good hitting pitcher will put up 30-40 in a year.
Like I said before. Hinske and Conrad are going to be used in high leverage situations before all of them. Ross is great, but managers(not just Fredi) just dont use their back up catchers. Bobby didn’t do it either
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Do you truly not get why Ross isnt used as a pinch hitter?
and I never said anything about Ross. I said:
“every time we are in the 8th and 9th in a close game we bring in Hinske or Conrad”
No team in baseball uses their catcher as a pinch hitter frequently. I would bet you Ross’ two pinch hits are more then almost any other team.
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell me this, though
When Ross starts, why is it that McCann is generally the first bat of the bench?
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
by Bronn on Jul 19, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Eh...
It’s because of a double-switch that always happens as a result of the PH.
I’d have no qualms against doing the same w/ McCann, but then you’re subbing out the best hitter on your entire team, rather than your best bench bat.
The two situations are not the same.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
BOOM
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Because we have good players
Solid top of the rotation pitching combined with an amazing pen. And the bats are coming around. Also, we play the Nationals, Marlins, and Mets a lot.
there's been a lot of talent go ringless...
It irked me to no end when people said that bullshii about Phil Jackson. Yeah, so he never won without MJ, Kobe, or Shaq. But guess what, they never won without him either (except Shaq’s outlier of motivation in Miami to prove Buss/Kupchak/Kobe wrong). Talent is one thing, being able to get people to utilize their talents another.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Basketball and Football coaches are totally different
They have more say in who they get and have a lot more control on the game.
Individually perhaps...
but I’d think the length and everyday for months on end nature of baseball means that the need for in game impact is more important in those sports, while baseball relies more on the intangible and hard to measure qualities of sustaining success over 162 games and 8+ months.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And in a baseball perspective...
how many rings does Bonds have, as arguably the best player ever (dismissing that he used PEDs, his PED fueled self is arguably the best of all time). He had talent around him with Kent and several strong pitchers. 0 rings. Ted Williams, another all time great. 0 rings. George Brett, 0 rings. Ernie Banks, 0 rings. With all the talent the Braves had, 1 ring.
That is more my point, not the irrespective difference of in game/off field or court impact that baseball, basketball, and football coaches have. It’s that this idea that it just takes talent has been proven wrong with so many talented players, who have no championships or championships only with a single coach. If the coach won simply because of the player, how come the players can’t win without the coaches?
Fredi’s in game decisions may seem suspect, as Bobby’s were at times too, but consistent success under their watches may indicate there is something they’re doing aside from those in game decisions that trumps the ‘mistakes’.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Yes having great players really helps
The years before Pujols and Carpenter and after McGwire, the Cards were a barely .500 team and LaRussa’s job was on the line. Look at any manager, they’re just judged based on the W-L of their team.
So then why
Are there only two managers below the MLB average line with WS rings? (Bochy and Francona). On the flipside, Manual, Girardi, Leyland, Sciosca, Guillen, and LaRussa all have rings.
I understand your stats – my point (again) is that there isn’t any actual impact on the game.
Those teams above the line that have won rings have had some serious talent and payroll.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
So has Showalter, how many rings does he have?
So have the Mets, how many rings is that worth? Same with Angelos’ Orioles, lots of talent and payroll. How about the Cubs and Dodgers, also big spenders with tons of talent?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
White Sox
Frank Thomas, Paul Konerko, Aaron Rowand (when he was good), and 4 outstanding starting rotation pitchers.
When did the Orioles ever have that?
ARod with Texas
cause they were so great with him. That’s why the Mariners go immediately worse losing big time talent in ARod, Griffey, and Johnson. That’s why the Yankees and Red Sox, with their massive salaries and tons of talent have swapped every World Series title the last 10 years. Oh wait, that’s wrong, so maybe it’s more than just talent.
Also, what does those White Sox teams have to do with the O’s? They weren’t competing for the same playoff spots. Frank Thomas didn’t win until he was well past his prime.
Also, Palmerio, Ripken, Alomar in his prime as the best 2B in baseball, Surhoff when he could hit, Bonilla, with Mussina and several other big money arms. Angelos stacked his teams big time in the 90s. He’s kept spending and still had some talent this decade, but the rudderless ship hasn’t gone anywhere. Hence why it takes both talent (players) and leadership (coaching).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And you do know Showwalter was with the Yankees for years, right?
Funny how they didn’t win until Joe Torre got there. But it’s all talent right? The manager’s got nothing to do with it.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Are you trying to say Joe Torre is a good manager?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions
it was just the talent...
look at all the World Series they’ve won with huge payrolls and insane talent since.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Showalter had 3 full seasons with the Yanks
1992 – 1995
The 1996 Yankees upgraded at nearly every single position on the diamond. You cannot possibly compare the teams Showalter had to the ones Torre had.]
Showalter never had an MVP caliber player in terms of WAR on his teams with the Yankees. They were old and bloated.
Look at all those teams with sub-par talent at the bottom of the list – and most of those teams are in contention right now. Cleveland, Arizona, Minnesota, Pitt are all in their playoff hunts, and Boston with all that talent, is still being managed superbly.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it
What is this supposed to prove?
Going by record, out of the top 6 teams in baseball (Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, NYY, SFG, and Texas), three of the teams are above the average mark and three are below.
The managers at the top of the list are costing their teams games
Francona realized back in May that even though his team was doing terrible that they would turn it around and he didn’t need to do anything.
Wait.....what?
How does a team that does a lot of sacrifice bunting and intentional walks = costing their teams games?
Sacrifice bunting with position players costs runs
You need runs to win games. You only get 27 outs in a game. You do the math.
You mean
Sacrifice bunting with position players costs outs*
Anyways, this is getting away from the point. The team with the best record in baseball (Philadelphia), has a “TMI” of 26. The team with the second best record (Boston) scores a 4.
Yes, a manger that asks his team to perform sacrifice bunts or give up intentional walks may be hurting the offense, but I don’t see how it has any impact (or correlation) to a team’s actual record.
Alright
I don’t really care about that.
You seem to be ignoring my point. This chart has no correlation to any team’s record. It doesn’t matter what a manager’s “TMI” is – it doesn’t seem to affect a team in any great way.
LOOK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CHART
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Those teams are two of the most talented teams in baseball. What their manager does has little effect on the outcome of their games.
However, look at the other teams at the bottom with inferior talent – Pitt, Clev, Arizona, etc. They are all leading their divisions with sub-par talent. Their managers are not giving away outs. They are playing smart baseball.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
In all but a few situations (first base open in the bottom of the 9th in a 1-run game; Barry Bonds coming up with runners on in his prime), IBBs lower a team’s chances of winning.
Right
I get that. But I don’t understand how you can pick two random stats together and call them a “traditional managing index.” A “traditional manager” would never use a bullpen.
Anyways, forget about all that. My main point of confusion is how this TMI correlates (or doesn’t correlate) with a team’s record.
There is no metric to judge how many runs a manager costs a team. We can only guess, but we do know that sacrifices and IBBs costs a team runs (score or yielded). We cannot know how much better PHI or ATL would be if they gave away fewer outs or put fewer opponents on base.
*sigh*
Okay, so we know that doing these two things hurts a team. It doesn’t really seem to really have that much of an effect on a team’s actual record, does it?
How do you feel about position players not running out grounders? After all, how often does it matter? Or charging balls and throwing in to make sure runners don’t take an extra base? Going after pop up foul balls near the stands? On the field, the very best players seem to be trying to avoid outs as much as they can by running hard, or get extra outs by being aggressive on foul balls.
Why not expect the same of the manager? When you have half the payroll of the major market teams, why not do everything you can to improve your chances and contend?
*double sigh*
My point is that a manager ordering 20 walks and 20 sacrifice bunts over half of a season (which I assume 5/27 is roughly) doesn’t seem to actually have an impact on that team’s overall record. Yeah, I’m sure it costs the team .1 or .3 or .7 of a run, but it doesn’t appear to really change a team’s overall record.
Your math is off. It would cost a team much more than a 10th of a run – especially combining the two situations.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:45 PM EDT up reply actions
It has been statistically proven that sacrificing runners to 2nd base gives your team a lower chance to score a run, because you give away an out.
Much along the same lines, allowing a free base-runner to the opposing team gives them a higher chance to score a run.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
At the same time, I think it is somewhat based on personell. Getting the guy to second and giving up an out is more likely to succeed with guys who hit the ball. For a team that relies more on getting on base than hitting, it’s much more likely to hurt the team.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at the teams at the bottom of the list. That’s where you will really find the value in this chart.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I couldnt disagree anymore with this.
I am a huge Texas baseball fan. The most winningest manager in the history of College baseball is Augie Garrido who is famous for small ball.
It makes you go crazy watching sometimes, but you cant argue with what works. Texas and Atlanta have always been very similar teams in the sense that they have great pitching and great fielding.
Getting runners to advance by sacrificing is a strategy that many managers use good and bad. For example, Boston is last and the Braves are third. Then the Astros are in the top half and the Mets are in the bottom half.
Its all situational
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Managers have to manage to the talents of their team. How many of Fredi’s sacrifice attempts have worked out? How many have not?
How many times have his hit and run calls worked? He clearly doesn’t understand the right time to do certain things.
He called a bases-loaded squeeze play with 1 out and Tommy Hanson, the worst hitter in the majors, up at the plate.
He calls hit and run plays with Martin Prado running (not a great baserunner) and Alex Gonzalez hitting (highest K% on the team).
He clearly is over managing and it is hurting the team.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
the graphic said nothing about hit and runs.
Just because a sacrifice attempt did not lead a run does not let us assume that we would have scored regardless.
Yall are acting like we are sacrificing with our best players. We have 5 batters hitting under .250. Its tough to score when guys arent hitting. I dont see how it hurts the team by putting them in a situation where one hit scores them rather then two hits.
by Texastriplecrown on Jul 19, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Because you take away 1/3 of their chances.
Sacrificing to “scoring position” is stupid. The only time it makes sense to bunt is to move a runner to 3B with less than 2 outs, or if your pitcher is up (and if the pitcher is not named Tim Hudson or Derek Lowe)
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think it's any coincidence that most of Fredi's more dumb decisions came earlier in the year
when our record was terrible… He over-managed situations and it cost us MUCH more than it helped us.
Since Schafer has arrived, it seems like we’ve done much less hitting and running, which is a good thing. Besides the Schafer sb attempts, we’ve largely sat back and let our bats do the work, instead of trying to force the action. Besides the Schafer/Gonzo 1-2 black hole, I can only think of bullpen mismanagement that Fredi has been guilty for in the last 6 weeks without nitpicking.
I don't think much of the hit-and-run in general
It’s not a very good play. It commits the hitter to having to swing at what may be a very bad pitch, and it takes away discretion from the runner. Plus, there’s the coordination aspect… I can’t tell you how many times I’ve watched a Braves game this year in which the hit and run was put on, but either the hitter or the runner missed the sign.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Tanner for South Carolina has seen similar complaints
and has the last two CWS.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Sure this is speculation, but if Mr. Garrido is as good at small-ball as you claim then I’m betting he knows who out of 3 players gets on base more when the 3 numbers are each separated by .020 (and within a .052 total spread that is what we in the statistics business call a lot)
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Nice graphic
Those are some great managers down at the bottom. Gibson, Gardenhire, Acta, Francona. In hindsight, I wish we’d hired Gibson, he’s done a fantastic job.
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Jul 19, 2011 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions
The big issue
Is that we’ve called for a lot of sac bunts and utterly failed to get them down. Those don’t get added. Plus, you can’t find all the times that a batter has been asked to sac but changed his approach with 2 strikes. Or times when Schafer, for example, might be bunting for a base hit but fails and ends up with a sacrifice.
It’s impossible to accurate codify how often managers really call for sac bunts, only how often they’re successfully converted. In a sense, this rewards managers who ask for sac bunts from guys who can’t lay them down, because those don’t get counted.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
This is kind of like Minority Report...
Fredi’s stats imply he’s lucky not good…so let’s fire him now before he’s no longer good.
He would first have to be good to then be no longer good.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s talent – but not Fredi’s
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Not at all. Nobody is asking for perfection.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s all we need. My beef with Fredi is that he over manages.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
IMHO...
Constantly tinkering the lineup to switch batting order based on the OBP or OPS at the time is overmanaging…
That would be overmanaging. Nobody is asking him to have a lineup of the day featuring the current OBP leaders.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
As I've mentioned before
This year…aside from Prado…anybody who’s been in the leadoff or 2nd hole has completely bombed in the OBP department. At least taking advantage of someone who can take XBs or score from 1st on an XBH is advantageous.
In very tiny sample sizes. For his career in the lead-off spot, Nate’s OBP is the same as his career overall OBP. Fact is, players perform to their true talent level regardless of the spot, over a large sample size. Just like Chipper’s average with RISP is identical to his overall batting average.
All players hit better with RISP. In any case, my point was about batting order. In a large sample size, McCann has done the same in the 4th spot as he’s done in the 5th spot for his career.
Batting order has no affect on performance of a hitter. A guy doesn’t go from third to fifth and hit better because of the change.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
by BenDuronio on Jul 19, 2011 2:11 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Huh?
Just like Chipper’s average with RISP is identical to his overall batting average.
On average yes
That is what the stats show, but this is not always true.
Example: For the longest time once his game regressed Alfonso Soriano was terrible anywhere outside of the leadoff spot because he was convinced he should be a leadoff hitter. His skill set didn’t match up to being a leadoff hitter but he had it stuck in his mind he should be there so mentally he wasn’t all the way there and played like crap because of it.
Whether a guy feels more comfortable somewhere or is a selfish ass batting order placement can have a great effect on a person mentally.
Not in my mind. I was worried about what baseball philosophy Fredi is using and now I know it to be “feel” and I’m terrified because he has done nothing to make me think that he has such great judgement that we can totally ignore stats. Absolutely nothing.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Ran the lineups through the analyzer here:
Clicky
And the difference between the most efficient and least are about .5 runs per game, or 81 runs per year or 8 WINS over the course of a season.
So don’t tell me lineup doesn’t matter when you’re not batting in an order that is anywhere close to efficient.
most and least huh?
how about most and 5th most? It’s not like he’s putting Heap in 9th, with Schafer, Sea Bass, and the pitcher hitting 1-2-3.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And there’s so much more that can go into a lineup than stats can show. Would an optimized lineup have included Hinske last night? Probably not, but look what happened.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 1:29 PM EDT up reply actions
actually it would
and it would have Schafer on the bench
I've never been a saberhead but I do pay attention to advanced stats
But the fact of the matter is the team is winning and thats all i care about. Schafer is NOT an optimum lead-off hitter, but he the closest thing to one that we have. The fact that he is the biggest threat to “make something happen” when he gets on base seems to be the biggest reason why he should stay put.
If he has the best ability to take the extra base, steal, hit and run etc., he should stay hitting in front of our run producers. Just my two cents, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Bobby would do the same thing
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
I don't think it's the winning we have a problem with
It’s the idea that Fredi is making bad decisions that aren’t based on what’s happening on the field and that is bad for the long term.
In my opinion, the best Braves lineup (when healthy) would be this.
1. Prado
2. Heyward
3. Jones
4. McCann
5. Freeman
6. Uggla
7. Hinske
8. Gonzalez
Chipper (duh)
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Jul 19, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
sub hinske for schafer/nate
and yes you are right
"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice
by SouthernPanther on Jul 19, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Right now Schafer is not the ideal leadoff hitter.
But I’m fine with him staying there and I’ll explain why. Schafer is new to the “just get on base concept” as he was previously trying to be a power hitter in a leadoff hitters body. He is working hard to get on base more and learning on the fly. As he gets more comfortable with this new approach I think we’ll see his OBP begin to rise. While letting him work it out on the fly may not be best for the team winning right now, it is best for the long term. Sabermatricians may hate stolen bases, players continue to believe that the threat has much more impact on the game than just an occasional extra base. So I say give him time, and the opportunity, to prove he belongs at the top of the order because the reward could be far greater than the risk.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
Not sure who all of the coaches are who Fredi was asking the question to, but if we’re going to get upset with him, what about all of the other coaches? It sounds like they were just as clueless.
Yup. I bet Parrish, Pendleton and Snitker were involved…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone needs to lighten up!
I sometimes get being frustrated with the coaches. I do. I’m with you guys most of the time. But for goodness sake, can we not just be happy with this team and what they are doing? I guess the answer is no because if things aren’t done to a T for some of you, that constitutes a failure in the coaches part and they all are dumb beyond reason, since all of us are so experienced running Major League baseball teams. Just my two cents
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
i don't see a problem not being content with 2nd place
"My everything, or nothing. My everything, or nothing. WE gonna fight, til we can't fight no more. We gonna lie down, and bleed a while. Gonna get up, and fight again." -Tashard Choice
by SouthernPanther on Jul 19, 2011 1:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Is that Fredi’s fault? serious question. If you guys truely believe that, then it is your perogative. I know this team is on the upswing because we have had our starters in the same lineup only 11 times for the WHOLE SEASON. Seriously, Fredi is not the root of all the problems. Not syaing he doesn’t deserve some blame, but some people here are so sure that they could run a team better than he can that I find it kind of amazing
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Everyone seems to have forgotten that Bobby Cox was just as frustrating of a manager as FG is.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
THIS
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's the problem with that line of thought.
It’s easy to be light-hearted when we’re winning like we currently are. But what happens if down the stretch the wildcard is really close, and we need those 2 or 3 games that good managing decisions would net us to clench? That’s why this is important. That’s why we rail on Fredi when he makes decisions that actively hurt our chances. OBP is a really basic stat and should be a major factor in determining who bats at the top of our order. When Fredi doesn’t consider that, he hurts the team. Same with over-utilizing or incorrectly utilizing pitching.
Remember, we won the wild card by 1 freaking game last year. This stuff matters and a good manager should recognize that.
“Good managing decisions” are subjective.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
respectfully disagree
Some decisions are, sure. But batting some of your worst OBP guys in the 1 & 2 holes are objectively bad managing decisions. You are actively hurting your team’s chances to score runs and therefore win the game. Same with placing guys like Proctor in high-leverage situations when you have proven guys sitting in your bullpen.
Lets put this into perspective...
With Gonzales batting 2nd, the team wouldve sent 4 leftys to the plate with one switch hitter among them. I honestly feel it was the Fedis way of breaking up the lefty heavy top of the order.
this is part of the problem
When a manager chooses “lefty-righty balance” over real, tangible, measurable statistics like OBP at the top of the order, he is not putting his team in the best possible position to win. No matter what our record is he should be called to account for that.
I agree, I personally hate the R/L alternating strategy. Who cares which side you bat from, as long as you get good results. McCann is hitting off of lefties fine this year, so does it really matter if he’s surrounded by 2 more lefties in the lineup?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Many are not. Sacrifices, intentional walks, using elite relievers with 4+ run leads, using below-average relievers in high-leverage situations, leaving Ross on the bench instead of pinch hitting. These are all objectively bad managing decisions and we can quantify them in terms of runs and wins over the course of a season.
King of games put it pretty succinctly. We railed on Bobby for a lot of the same things. That man did ok for himself I would say. he wasn’t the best ever, but who the hell is?
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me see if I can get this across
I think those on my side of the argument would agree that we don’t hate Fredi. He generally does the intangible things well and he does most things right in terms of lineup and pitching stuff.
The thing is, there are several very simple things he should and could be doing better to improve our team and he is not doing them. That is frustrating.
I hear you guys on that. I usually am one of the most vocal guys when Alex is hitting second or the Proctorologist is in. But I’m just not the type to get too worked up about this stuff right now. I acknowledge the fact the this team is 2.5 games behind the best team in baseball. Whether that is because of or in spite of Fredi, he is the manager. Thats just me though
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Jul 19, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
You can still be a glass half-full guy and want more from your team, though. Sure, it’s great that we have a decent wild card lead and are closing on the Phillies, but the wishful thinking part of me wonders if maybe it could be us leading the division by 2.5 games if Fredi would just apply some simple, proven baseball statistical logic.
I agree...
I honestly believe many of the posters here are just greedy and unrealistic alot of times in the expectations. With all the sabermetrics out there for every average joe to make their predictions, fans forgot how to just be fans and ride out the lows as well as the highs.
Forgive me for not just enjoying the ride of Scott Proctor or Diory Hernandez and Brandon Hicks when there were clearly other rides available.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Cmon now...
Lets be for real, your talking about AAAA players who havent even had a sliver of the “success” or productivity that Schafer has had.
I see what the coaches see in Schafer, not what they see in Proctor, Diory, or Hicks.
You have no idea what I am talking about, do you?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
I love what the Braves are doing
I’m not really a Braves fan, but I love the players on this team. It think they have outstanding talent and have built a great team and would hate to see them suffer in the postseason due to over-managing.
Because you can’t follow them?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Youre far too critical for your own good and far too defensive for me to care to argue with. You strike me as the type that would argue why a 100 win team shouldve won 105, when all that matters is winning championships.
You need to go back and look at what point I was actually making, and what point you imagined I was making.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Overreact much...
I, for one, am behind the idea of Schafer leading off. For a kid with less than a year of MLB experience to be asked, and willing, to change his approach, no more than 4 months ago, and to come out looking serviceable in lieu of injuries, is feat within itself.
Before last night he had been hitting north of .250 in his last ten, and in a very small sample size north of .260 in July. He’s making the necessary adjustments asked of him and thats really all that matters if the team is winning games.
Im certainly not a homer, but Id rather see a kid from our farm system develop into a everyday major leaguer. As long as Schafer continues to make progress while providing great defense in centerfield, I think we’ll be fine.
I a homer... and I agree with this train of thought...
Thanks for not falling off my bandwagon. :-P
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Jul 19, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I cant...
It as if the team and fans alike havent been clamoring for a lead off hitter for the last 5 years. And when they finally have one with the tools to become one, it needs to happen overnight or he’ll be tarred and feathered and run out of town.
I blame the internet and the age of instant gratification.
I see what you are saying, and he has been getting on base more often lately. But if he is going to be a good lead-off man he needs to get on base more than .295. I personally think he can improve, but if this is the finished product then he is not an ideal lead-off man by any means.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
This is the problem...
What makes you think that this is the finished product 4 months into his development of a new approach, new mechanics, and a flatter swing at the plate? You dont have to answer that, but this is the focal point of my issue with Schafer and Fredi detractors.
I don’t think it is at all. I have said a bunch of times that I think that Schafer could benefit from a little more time. The problem I have is that Fredi doesn’t seem to think so and thinks that he has found his perfect lead-off man. He does do a lot of things to help our ball-club, and I’m really not what you would call a “Schafer detractor” but I just cant get over the fact that he gets on base less than 30% of the time. He is playing well, but he isn’t great yet. I think he can be, but his impact is being limited by how little he gets on base. Fredi is basically conceding that his best skill is speed with all of the bunts he calls, so how can we say that he is the well-rounded player we need?
Once he does start developing more, if he pulls up that OBP then he would be an ideal lead-off man, but he isn’t there yet.
To Fredi, I think really little of the guy. Not only does he not know the stats, but when he looks at them, he obviously doesn’t know what they mean. I obviously have a far better understanding of stats than he does. And while this might not be the only way to understand baseball, stats are objective and can be comprehended in a number of ways. But the idea of “managing by feel” can lead to being stubborn and sticking with your “feel” when there is literally nothing to back it up (see Proctor, Scott.) I don’t really hate Fredi, but I think that he is undermining the skill of our ball-club in a lot of ways. But I would be fine with all that if I felt that he was a great chemistry guy or an excellent leader. The best compliment I’ve ever heard about him from the locker room is when McLouth called him “even-keeled” and that just isn’t good enough.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Honeymoon may go on for years
I’ve been consistently negative about Schafer for quite a while now. I feel very strongly that he has been consistently overrated by both the Braves and the fans. It won’t surprise me at all if he continues for the next 3-4 years as weak .230 hitting guy with speed who never gets taken out of the lineup. He’s got that Francoeur teflon thing going for him so he might be able to do years worth of damage before the organization has had enough. Let’s be honest. If the Braves were losing a lot of low scoring games and on the outside looking in for a playoff spot, Schafer would probably be on his way back to AAA and replaced via a trade.
Weak?
The guy just took a pitch below the knee on the outer half of the plate and pitched it to the warning track last night in left center. I havent seen him take a power swing at a pitch in weeks, and thats more a product of coaching than it is his lack of power.
I miss Bobby...
Someone needs to make Fredi read Moneyball
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Jul 19, 2011 1:59 PM EDT reply actions
In what world is .295, .319 and .347 “almost the same?”
Perhaps he doesn’t look at the stats because he doesn’t have a reference point. Numbers by themselves are worthless but you need to know that sub .300 isn’t good in any scenario, that .347 is excellent when it exceeds BA by .120, and that .319 is also good when it exceeds BA by .95
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
I firmly believe that if Nate was to hit at the top of the order, with that long, slow swing of his, he would walk less and his average would dip to in or around .200. I dont know this with any amount of certainty, he just doesnt strike me as a lead off hitter or a guy with good contact skills at the plate.
Except that his OBP in the lead-off spot for his career is consistent with his career OBP in all spots. So, I am very skeptical of your claim that isn’t supported by anything but your firm belief.
Except that
The Nate lead off experiment has been tried and failed time and time again.
I just cited his career statistics. You are entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.
[He is a career .341 OPB lead-off hitter. He is a career .338 OBP hitter. These are robust sample sizes.]
I find it awfully funny that people all of the sudden want to support Nate for the lead off spot.
OBP batting leadoff: 2011 – .143 / 2010 – .279 / 2009 – .351.
Right [checks calendar], and it is 2011 and his OBP is 50 points higher than Schafer’s. Why are we replaying old seasons?
You just cited his career OBP. 2010 is just as important to the discussion as is his Pittsburgh statistics. He fell off a cliff. Im not saying he cant regain his Pittsburgh form, but he has been trending downward for some time now.
He’s getting walked batting ahead of the pitcher. I don’t understand why people can’t seem to fathom this concept.
Twitter:ChopAttack
Both walks and strike outs increase in front of the pitcher. You get pitched around but you also have pressure to generate runs in front of a below average hitter.
If hitting in front of the pitcher is so great for your production, put Schafer there.
Hes also showing below average contact skills, hitting for extra bases less, hitting more flyballs while posting his lowest hr/fb rate for his career.
Really? Are you just making that up? I only ask, because according to Baseballreference.com, you are completely making this up.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Are you replying to something or just talking to yourself? Baseball-Reference clearly shows Atlanta Nate is not Pittsburgh Nate, at any spot in the lineup. The loss of power and hitting for extra bases, the flyball rate trending upward and homerun rate trending downward are not assumptions, theyre facts.
The fact that hes posting the best walk rate of his career hitting in front of the pitcher has to mean something, even to you. I find his spike in walks and decline in strikeouts to be far more attributable to him hitting 8th than Nate reverting to Pittsburgh Nate. But thats just, me.
I’m replying to your unfounded and ridiculous assertion that the “McLouth lead off experiment has been tried and failed time and time again.”
The only evidence that you have to support such a claim is his 7 PAs in 2011. If you are basing your claim on 7 PAs, I think this conversation has gone about as far as it can go.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Ive already showed his obp in 2010 (from the lead off position) and it was worse than Schafer’s obp this year. Your grasping at straws trying to find a flaw in my argument, but just wasting your time.
So, the one outlier season of his career is what you are going to base this off of?
To make that an actual legit claim, you would have to compare his OBP in the leadoff spot in 2010 to his OBP in any other spot in 2010. If there is a noticeable difference, then you could begin to formulate the argument, of course, barring any SSS variables and any sort of other contributing factors, such as injuries.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
In actual legit claim?
Some of us believe his 2008 season was the outlier.
How can that be, when his 2008 season is actually closer to his career average than his 2010?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions
What do some of you believe about 2007 and 2009? His wRC+ for 2007, 2008 and 2009 were 118, 127, and 115.
I apologize fellas...
Im going to admit defeat here. Obviously my analytical approach, or lack thereof, needs some refinement and fine tuning. I thought I had a pretty decent grasp on the subject but obviously there are some glaring deficiencies in the way Im looking at things.
Looks like Im going to have to read up some more before I can engage in intelligent baseball discussions again.
We can argue about the validity of that claim, but do you think that is part of Fredi’s thought process. I definitely don’t think so.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
He is a career .341 OPB lead-off hitter. He is a career .338 OBP hitter. These are robust sample sizes. Why speculate when you can just look at the numbers?
McLouth hasn’t been the same player since he got to Atlanta. His career numbers are a bygone era never to be seen again.
Twitter:ChopAttack
sage advice
Way to miss the point of the entire thread. No one is saying we don’t like where we stand at the moment. Our issue is that we could be even better with minimal changes that a major league manager should know about and apply, so that when it comes to crunch time, we have a 4 game lead in the wild card instead of a 1 game lead, and can rest people, or we win the division instead of finishing 1.5 games behind.
Is it at all possible
That Schafer is making up for his lower OBP by the fact that he can actually steal bases and also play centerfield?
Well, kinda
It’s what makes his BA somewhat tolerable and makes him competitive with Nate. But considering a 0.8 WAR (JS) vs. 0.3 WAR (Nate), we really need to replace both of them.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
interesting, but I think the answer is no
I believe it was mentioned earlier in the thread that he is only successful 50% of the time stealing bases, and that his defense is worth something like .4 WAR this year. I would like to see numbers on how is OBP is impacting us WAR-wise to see if he is overall positive or negative, but my gut says it’s probably a negative number right now.
13 steals vs. 4 caught.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
Schafer has handled CF really well
I’d hate to turn the position over to someone who can’t handle it like McClouth. I just think you need to bat your best hitters at the top of the lineup and we can see that he isn’t one of them this season.
Schafer is about average at base-running (not including stolen bases) according to Fangraphs so that isn’t a huge contribution either.
much better than I thought
I suppose that translates to his higher WAR than Nate. The arguments for/against either of those guys is kinda a wash though. When citing Fredi’s bonehead decisions I generally exempt who he chooses to play in CF. His other decisions are more measurably stupid.
Exactly – both are close in the composite stats… and both are replaceable if better talent can be found. The hope is that the staff figures this out.
"Just take out the whole Tim McCarver part of the broadcast and boom, the director has freed up a whopping 45 minutes of airtime." - Rob Iracane of Yahoo! Sports, 7/13/11
This thread...
Is why the internet was invented.
Here’s to Al Gore and his wonderful creation, the internet.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 2:58 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
:)
This is what I love about baseball. There is such a huge shroud of complexity about why teams win and lose that it’s taken us 100 years just to scratch the surface.
It's baseball, not rocket surgery...
number crunchers might wish it so, but it ain’t that “complex”. It’s a widely reported “kid’s game” for cryin out loud.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Wow Mark Bowman with a bombshell
He stated that if we acquire Carlos Beltran its likely to send Heyward to the Minors or platoon him. Thats dumber than anything we’re talking about here
Heyward might need the rest, though
I mean, if we’re talking about health issues being the reason
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
its not tho
says to fix his swing, the fuck out of here. Talking out of your ass like that should get you fired.
if that happened
would it help avoid super2 status? or is it too late?
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
apparently Management has fell in love with Jordan Schafer
and would actually prefer that scrub to fucking play in CF because of his “range” and platoon Jason Heyward in RF. If that fucking happens i dont give a damn if Heyward leaves when its his time
This has nothing to do with Jordan Schafer.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Regardless sending Heyward down to the minors or platooning him
is fucking dumb
I agree that a platoon would be stupid, but as I said below, if a month in the minors can fix something to get him back to where he should be, then it will help our playoff run not hinder it.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:37 PM EDT up reply actions
For all Heyward’s ‘struggles’, his wRC+ is still 102 (2% above average) and just below Prado (106) and Chipper (109). If they really make this decision based on his batting average, that is really troubling.
The point isn’t that he’s performed decent thus far, it’s that he’s vastly underperforming and there’s an obvious a problem with his swing/stance. I don’t know how many more weak grounders straight to the 2B I can stomach.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
But he’s performed much better on offense than Schafer. If you are only looking at the grounders, you aren’t looking at the total picture. He’s been almost exactly as productive as Prado and Chipper.
Schafer doesn’t have nearly the potential of Heyward. If you can’t see there’s something wrong with Heyward right now, you’re not looking.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Whether you play in the majors shouldn’t be based on your production relative to your potential. It should be based on your absolute production. This isn’t about whether Heyward is having a down year. It is whether he should go to the minors or be platooned. Based on his absolute numbers for 2011, while down, the answer is absolutely not.
The issue isn’t his production or his potential, it’s that there is a flaw in his mechanics that he has thus far failed to correct. If a month in the minors will allow him to correct it so that he’ll be himself for the stretch run and playoffs, I’m all for it.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
i have no words for how dumb sending jason Heyward to the minors would be. Hes 21 and already proven himself to be an above average player
We’re not dealing with a SSS any more, this is not the same Heyward from last year. If our professional scouts see something wrong with him that can be fixed with some time in the minors, then go for it. You act like if he gets sent to the minors for a bit that he’ll be stuck there for the rest of his career. It would basically be a rehab assignment.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Heyward
Was worth about 5 wins last year (his rookie year, btw). Hunter Pence has never been worth more than 4 wins in his entire career. How on earth does anyone explain downgrading the only OF position that you don’t have questions about when the other two are MASSIVE holes in your lineup (while Chipper is hurt, obviously)?
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Because Heyward isn’t producing like he did last year.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Some #Braves WAR values, using an average of fWAR and brWAR: Heyward 1.1, Freeman 0.7, McLouth 0.4, Schafer 0.3.-Jacob
Imagine what that WAR number would be if his swing wasn’t messed up.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
irrelevant if you’re replacing him with a player who is more productive right now.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:01 PM EDT up reply actions
both McLouth and Schafer produce more than adequate numbers for a CFer.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
For a position that traditionally produces little offense, yes, they are both more than adequate. If we find a better option, great. If not, it still has no bearing on the Heyward situation.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
If you're not going to play Heyward then just trade him
And get a haul. But you would be insane not to play him or to trade him.
i think heyward is the mlb greg oden
not only does he look like him, but he is just made of glass but has all the potential in the world
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Greg Oden
has never had a successful season in the NBA
"You come at the king, you best not miss."
by a hooter's baby on Jul 19, 2011 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions
OT
Hes never played a full season, but in 08-09 he played 60 some odd games, 21 mpg, averaged 9 pts and 7 rebs and shot close to 57% from the field. Hes as close to dominant as you can get without being dominant, especially for not being the focal point of the offense nor getting enough minutes.
And just for kicks, in 09-10 in 20 some odd games, 20 some odd mpg, he average 11 and 9 with over 2 blocks per game, shooting over 60% from the field.
Just saying. Sorry for going off topic, but Im a blazers fan.
Tell that to John Hollinger and every team salivating at the idea that he doesnt sign the blazers offer sheet and tests free agency.
60% from the field, 8 rpg, 2 bpg in 20 mpg is not average by any stretch of the imagination.
advance metrics rated him as average
he was a fouling machine too, he wasnt dominate. besides i honestly dont care the comparision between him and Heyward is asinine
Not comparing him to Heyward
Just defending Oden. His per in ‘09 was 23.1, Dwight Howard’s 24. His per 36 minute average puts him about 17 and 12. And thats only taking his 6-7 shot attempts a game into account when Roy was still Roy and LMA was the blazers second option averaging 18 and 7.
Advance metrics do not rate him as average.
it was hyperbole of course
i just think they look a lot alike, you read wayyyy too much into it.
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
now were being racist
dont fucking piss me off any further ass whipe
I’m trying to determine if this is racist or not…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
are you telling me you don't think they look alike?
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
That's exactly what I'm saying
Oden
Heyward
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
wasn't there a fanpost
showing players who look like other people, i specifically remember Heyward being Oden
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Other than both being black and having facial hair, I don’t see it.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:38 PM EDT up reply actions
here
http://www.talkingchop.com/2010/11/7/1799821/braves-clones-are-among-us
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
I still don’t see it.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions
now that i look at it
i don’t think they look so similar, i don’t follow basketball i have seen oden like once, didn’t realized i would be chastised for saying something i had remembered from this site.
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Heyward
Can be compared to any oft injured player of any sport, it doesnt have to be Oden, and because they “look alike”.
i think the original comparison in that post
was because they were both pretty big guys. Similar voices.
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
and look much older than they actually are
they could be brothers perhaps, but they don’t look exactly alike
thats the thing though
i never said they looked exactly alike, yet all of a sudden im racist
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
They probably don’t even know his BA off the top of their heads.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Gammons is about to talk about braves trade targets
on MLB network, just letting you guys know
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
I think you’ll have to do better than Christian Bethancourt. The other guys might be a good idea, though.
I’m just curious why Betancourt, our only decent catching prospect, gets thrown in as the “and others” piece in every imaginary trade. Let’s trade the bit pieces from a position where we have some organizational depth, people.
Probably because it takes good prospects to get good players. Besides there’s still plenty of time to develop another catcher before McCann is finished.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Of the teams that look like sellers, at least one that I know of, the Twins, are specifically looking for a catching prospect.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I don’t think the Twins will be sellers, they’re still in the race despite the health issues.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
fwiw, those were the 3 guys Gammons mentioned as players the Astros liked
I didn’t just throw some names together by pulling them out of a hat
Too much...
That’s a lot to give up for a guy who’s not a star and only has a couple years of control left. Especially since he’s going to start getting pretty expensive next year. Do the Braves even have the payroll flexibility to add a guy who could be awarded high 7 figures through arbitration?
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions
KK and McLouth coming off the books.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions
McCann, Prado, Chipper, Uggla all getting raises, right?
Plus, you have JJ and several other players going to arbitration. There isn’t enough money.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions
And there are others coming off the books as well. Moylan could be released (and hopefully resigned for less money), Proctor/Sherrill/Linebrink all likely gone. Point is, you get an impact bat, you make the finances work.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure that’s how things work. If you’re adding money, you better be sure you can fit it in your budget or else you end up trading Kevin Millwood for Johnny Estrada.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
All of that money off the books more than covers the raises and addition of Pence without significantly downgrading any other position.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I highly doubt that is the case. That’s only about 17 million coming off the books and McCann is getting a 2 million dollar raise with a chance to make 3 more, Uggla gets 4 million more, JJ and Prado are going to get raises from the ~3 million they are both making now plus someone has to play SS and CF…and what about the relievers that you’ll have to replace? Someone has to fill those spots.
I don’t see where you can fit in an extra 7-8 million.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
If only we had pitching in our minor league system.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
OH YEAH! I totally forgot how guys that pitched in our minor league system always pitch for free! Good call!
Also, I don’t know of a LH reliever that is both ready to contribute and profiles only as a LOOGY in the minor league system right now.
My point is you better have a better plan than do it and we’ll figure everything else out later. I’m all for making a run at a championship when you have the chance, but if the result is that you are making awful moves in the not so distant future to make up for it then I have a problem. This franchise is going to have issues in a few years anyway.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 4:43 PM EDT up reply actions
twitter quotes
If we trade for OF, and chipper comes back, u gotta bench least helpful player…thats heyward…tough to say it, but its true
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Jul 19, 2011 3:39 PM EDT reply actions
some random dude
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Jul 19, 2011 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
http://markbowman.mlblogs.com/2011/07/19/heywards-struggles-are-becoming-more-concerning/
The PuertoRican Kid
by Kobe:The Legend on Jul 19, 2011 3:48 PM EDT reply actions
I curse my parents for raising me a sports fan in Atlanta.
by Michael Scarn, FBI on Jul 19, 2011 3:59 PM EDT reply actions
The Fredi quotes in this article are even worse
He is trying to backtrack on getting embarrassed by the OBP question on Monday. He really is completely clueless and now is admitting that he doesn’t look at the numbers.
“"Yeah, I think so," Fredi said. "Whether it’s defense, running the bases, maybe disrupting, if there’s a stat for that – can you quantify disrupting the pitcher?”
The old “havoc on the bases” argument. I mean… I’m just stupefied. For anyone that is curious, they have actually measured the impact of a disruptive runner on base and…. wait for it…. it LOWERS a hitter’s OPS! (Having a non-disruptive baserunner improves a hitter’s OPS. The difference between disruptive and non-disruptive is measured by passed balls, wild pitches, caught stealing, and other similar plays).
he's digging a hole today for sure
I’m usually not one to Fredi bash, but my god…. and how he’s not concerned at all w offense from the SS position…
He looks like he’s trying to be a smartass and ridicule stats.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Is it bad that the beat writer is off on Schafer's OBP by 16 points
in an article when he’s specifically talking about Schafer being “better than the stats,” according to the coaching staff? Even the beat writer doesn’t know the damn numbers.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
he must have looked at the wrong #... could just be an honest mistake
bc that’s Logan’s slugging %, as sad as that is
Surely he reread it before he published it, though, right?
And if he’d actually been looking at the numbers, he should have been like “Wait, .311? That’s not right.” Schafer hasn’t been north of .300 since before the All-Star break. OBP shouldn’t be THAT obscure.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
How hard can it be? Is it possible that it was a simple typo?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
More Fredi Genius
"They’re all about the same [statistically]. But you feel like Schafer’s done so much more. Maybe it’s just us looking, or maybe it’s what he does on the basepaths, the defense, but you feel like – and I’m not putting the other guys down – but you feel like Schafer’s one-base percentage is higher. It’s [actually] lower than McLouth’s.
"They’re [all] hitting three or four points different. But you feel like he’s done something. I don’t know if it’s the stolen-base threat that’s there."
Seriously? 3 or 4 points?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:04 PM EDT reply actions
I was just about to post this quote.
Also, he’s thinking about defense and baserunning as reasons why he thought Schafer had a higher OBP than McLouth? Errrrrrr, what? Never mind that McLouth is objectively a much better baserunner. Nevermind that 50 points OBP is not “about the same.” Never mind that Schafer’s wRC+ of 76 is not “about the same” as McLouth’s 96 and Heyward’s 102. That means that Schafer creates about 25% fewer runs than McLouth and Heyward.
He doesn’t think all the things that Schafer does on offense can be measured, but they can be, and even when you include all of the “havoc” he’s still far less productive than the average MLB player.
he forgot to put 0's behind those 3's and 4's
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
Someone explain to me what Fredi Gonzalez does well that separates him from, as cb styled us, “people in their mother’s basement” because I honestly think I could do his job better than he can.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Duh - you don't see the dozens of hours he spends each week and what he does in the clubhouse to motivate the players!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Seriously though, is it bad that I think the coach of a highly competitive team could learn about his profession by reading a fan’s blog?
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
I honestly feel the same way. I can’t coach guys on mechanics, or tell them how to take better routes by reading the hips of the batter, etc. But that’s not the manager’s job. That’s the coaches’ job.
I definitely feel like 70-80% of us in here could do as good/better than most MLB managers.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
agreed, though you may be generous on that %
but since no one has blazed the blogger to manager trail yet, the only current way to get there is to actually know something about hitting or pitching, or to be a former player
I wonder if Theo Epstein counts?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I do admire what he’s done though. As much as I hate Boston, they have a great GM and a pretty good manager. Bottomless pockets and ridiculous talent aside, they are a good franchise.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Do I really want to scroll back up there and read all that? ;-)
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
Not if you want to keep your hair.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Why do I feel like it may be a LOT of this.. ;-)
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
It’s actually quite the opposite. Many people are ignoring the stats (like Fredi) to try to support their claims.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember at the beginning of the year when we were told about Fredi attending Sabre conferences? Did he come late to the introductory lesson about OBP? Or was he too busy closing his eyes and using his “feelings” to learn anything?
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
We should purchase “Walk this Way” for him on itunes…
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
Free Fallin'
Since, you know, that’s what our team OBP seems to be doing.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
“These Boots Were Made for Walking”
Jessica Simpson version – just because she was hot as hell in that video.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions
You mean this?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh dear Pujols…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's your cold shower...
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Jul 19, 2011 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
BOOOOO!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Willie Nelson was hitting that…
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
among other things…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
As a Matter of Fact..
I’d like to change the whole vector of this discussion.
What would Fredi Gonzalez’s theme song be? Like instead of a song that plays when someone approaches the plate, his song would, for instance, play when he puts in Scott Proctor?
Thoughts?
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
“Out of My Head” by Fastball
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Face it y'all. They'll never put "playing with heart" on the scoreboard.
Or kept it in a stat book.
I tend to watch and enjoy baseball on more of an emotional level, so while stats are kept at nauseam in this game, I rarely go past what I see in the box score. And I like it that way.
Maybe, Fredi just wasn’t in a particular mood to be specific about his decision making.
Yeah, that’s the ticket. ;-)
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
I’m just glad we had a translator on hand to turn his grunts into idiotic verbage
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
I think the braves have a secret strategy
they have less obp but way more slugging this year
less hits, but more wins
I think they are aiming towards more impacting moves, and winning with maximum efficiency
Braves 2010 SLG: .401
Braves 2011 SLG: .388
Certainly not way more slugging. Not even more at all.
Our record after 96 games last year was 56-40, so yes, we do have more win(s). Barely. But let’s not pretend like the managing formula is working. We’re just pitching a lot better than we did last year.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
justin here are those stats you asked for earlier
2010 stats pre-all-star game:
.260/.343/.394/.737… 70 HR, 406 runs scored
2011 stats pre-all-star game:
.237/.305/.385/.690…. 97 HR, 365 runs scored
Also, through 96 games, 2010 v 2011
2010: 447 runs v 337 runs allowed [RD: 74]
2011: 394 runs v 330 runs allowed [RD: 64]
We’ve scored 53 fewer runs in 96 games (down .55 runs per game) but we have given up 43 fewer runs.
In 2010, we were 56-40 and up 6 games in the division after a 1-run loss to FLA.
I would need those numbers to be in a league-wide context. Not saying that any of the conclusions are wrong, just saying that context is always key.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
All around worse offensive numbers with 27 more HRs hit.
Interesting…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
our slugging and pitching has us where we are in the standings
not that I needed the stats to tell me that. Pretty much anyone watching the majority of the games could come to the same conclusion…. Just like last year with pitching and getting on base
League Averages: same time frame
2010 NL
.257/.326/.402/.729… 82 HR and 388 R
2010 MLB
.259/.329/.406/.734… 83 HR and 393 R
2011 NL
.251/.318/.386/.703… 77 HR and 375 R
2011 MLB
.253/.319/.391/.710… 81 HR and 381 R
Giants get Jeff Keppinger
Reminds me of when they got Cody Ross off of waivers when he was a real target for the Braves. Ross would go on to put up wRC+ of 117 for the Giants, while Ankiel put up 79 wRC+ for us. OUCH.
he'd be a Lugo replacement on the roster
but not exactly a guy I would want to be the 1st RH bat off the bench to pinch hit
Honest question:
I know stats measure just about everything – but where in all these type discussions does something like this fall?
Player A hits a ball, looks like a typical out play and doesn’t bust it out of the box because he’s frustrated at the result. The defender doesn’t make a clean play and there is a extremely close play at the base, but ends in an out.
Player B hits a ball, knows he’s likely going to be out, but runs full out leaving the box. The defender makes a solid play, but because of the hustle of the runner, it ends up being a lot closer play at the base than the norm, but still an out.
Both players have the same stat for the AB, yet attitudes were different.
Surely this kind of thing should be taken into consideration by coaches/managers when evaluating which players end up in a lineup.
Or should stats be the final say?
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
There really isn’t a comprehensive stat for this. Certain stats allude to it like Rroe (Runs reached on errors, which is as problematic as other metrics for most of the same reasons- scarcity of data, SSS, even things like hitting patterns, which side and how hard) and Rbaser (runs from baserunning, see above.) These are from baseball-reference. Fangraphs, on the other hand, don’t really try to assess these difficult stats-besides baserunning value, but instead give other stats like Infield Hits, Bunt hits
But the short answer is that no such easy and reputable metric exists to my knowledge.
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
You just described why I can handle Dan Uggla’s terrible rate stats, but get mad at Alex Gonzalez’
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I love Dan Uggla. He has now paid for any success he has with his own blood, sweat and happy tears (who knew TheLetter controls these kind of things…)
"You know when it comes to racism, people say: ' I don't care if they're black, white, purple, or green.' Uh, hold on now: purple or green?! You gotta draw the line somewhere! To hell with purple people! Unless they're suffocating, then help 'em."
You just described why I can handle Dan Uggla’s terrible rate stats, but get mad at Alex Gonzalez’
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 19, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
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