Tomahawk Chops: Daily Atlanta Braves News Clippings For Monday, July 18th
by gondeee on Jul 18, 2011 8:08 AM EDT
in Tomahawk Chops
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Your one-page daily morning overview of Atlanta Braves news:
Postgame quotes following Braves walkoff win over Nats on Sunday | Atlanta Braves
Freddie Freeman, on difference between him in April and now: "It’s just more at-bats. I’m more comfortable playing every day. I’ve seen more pitches. I’m starting to see the same [pitchers] over and over again. I figured out a game plan and starting going up the middle instead of trying to pull everything."
Prado pleased with progression since returning | braves.com: News
"It's going to take a couple games," he said. "Against Livan, I got more chances because he doesn't throw that hard. My timing is so messed up."
Jonny Venters eager to get back to work | Atlanta Braves
"There is definitely a point where you get too much rest and then you get out there in the game and your timing is off a little bit or you are not as locked in as you want to be," Venters said before Sunday’s series-finale against the Nationals. "You get off a few days, but then you want to start trying to get us in there."
Gearrin happy to have rough outing in the past | braves.com: News
Gearrin said the All-Star break helped him forget about his outing at Citizens Bank Park, as he returned home to visit family in Chattanooga, Tenn., during the time off. "It was nice having the All-Star Break to kind of be able to get away," he said. "Having an outing like that, you want to flush it. ... I was definitely excited to get back to the field and show them I was ready to go again, and get the second half started the right way."
Lowe acknowledges trade possibility | Atlanta Braves
Derek Lowe was convinced the Braves were about to trade him two winters ago, and it didn’t happen. The Braves traded Javier Vazquez instead. Now that his name has resurfaced in trade speculation, he’s not as fazed. Lowe had a little fun with a Saturday report that his native Detroit Tigers had expressed interested in trading for him. "Detroit," said Lowe, the Dearborn, MI native, he announced to teammates when he arrived in the Braves clubhouse, drawing some mock applause. "Hey, I’m going to the American League."
Braves looking to improve bullpen and bench " Bowman's Blog
An American League scout proved more specific Friday when he said, "They’re looking for a right-handed hitter who can play each of the outfield positions." While the Braves might not necessarily find the versatile outfielder they are seeking, they would seemingly be satisfied to strengthen their bench with the right-handed equivalent of Eric Hinske. This would provide manager Fredi Gonzalez at least another option to combat situations when opponents can attempt to take advantage of the heavy left-handed presence in the Braves’ lineup.
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I actually had a dream about Martin Prado last night. Nothing weird, but his accent was different. That is all.
Was he talking in his “stadium announcer” accent? I recently had a player-dream too, but I won’t discuss what happened in that one.
We fill this hole with foam and your man will float right up. I don't think that will work. Me neither, but I have a truck full of foam and six kids to feed, come on man, I need this. What about lowering a rope. A rope made of foam?
by bwellnjonesco on Jul 18, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions
Man, if we shipped Lowe to Detroit ALONG with McOut.
That would be epic.
Extra points if you argue that Nate’s HR this weekend proves he’s “turning it around” or something like that. I’ll also accept an OB% argument
War Eagle
Nate’s OBP this year (given where he’s hitting in the order) shows that he has been anything but “McOut”. I don’t see why we just don’t keep Nate around since he’s not on the books next year and he’s a decent OFer.
Detroit is not going to take on roughly an extra $7MM for the remainder of this year and $15MM for Lowe in 2012 without sending a significant amount of Cash. Even if they are both Native Michganders.
It's funny...
McOut has the third best OBP on the team. But feel free to keep using it, it’s original and catchy!!
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions
How about...
McOn instead?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
by sddbaker on Jul 18, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
LOL!
McLouth suits me just fine in LF. The only thing is we have a log jam in the OF when Chipper comes back. I think Prado deserves and everyday spot.
by TCfromDubVee on Jul 18, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
And
That high .OBP has nothing to do with the fact he’s batting 8th and gets pitched around because the pitcher’s behind him?
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Jul 18, 2011 11:10 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Probably not as much as you or anyone else would think. If there’s a runner already on second or third and first is open, that’s obviously a time when it would be advantageous. Set up the DP, force out at more stations, etc.
Otherwise, why bother pitching around him?? It’s more advantageous to just go for the out. With two outs, would you rather the pitcher spot get cleared, or start the next inning with the pitcher up to bat?? I’d go after the 8th hitter every time, unless there’s RISP, as mentioned above.
If there’s only one out and no RISP, what’s the purpose of pitching around the hitter?? If you get them and the pitcher out, you’re out of the inning. If not, you provide the opposing team a runner with the top of the order coming up. It doesn’t make sense.
With no outs and no RISP, do you really want to put the 8th batter on to give the pitcher an opportunity to sacrifice and have a RISP with one out?? Fuck no, you don’t.
In the end, it comes down to the situation, and the number of situations in which it is advantageous to pitch around the 8th batter is dwarfed by the times it is not.
It’s not nearly as big of a deal as many purport it to be. Since the average hitter only gets on 1/3 of the time, the advantage is already in the pitcher’s favor. I can guarantee you no starting pitcher wants to go out and pitch around the 8th guy and put him on base unless it gives them an advantage in the field.
In all honesty, the 8th man is going to get pitched around no more often than the 3-4-5 hitters, because those are the folks coming up with RISP most often and they’re better hitters. If you’re trying to make the case that Nate is getting pitched around more often than McCann this season, I will laugh in your face.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Cool dude
Thanks for answering my question like a dick
-HMC
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Jul 18, 2011 12:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
??? It sure looks like a normal, well-thought-out response to me. What’s dickish about it?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions
My guesses...
Probably not as much as you or anyone else would think.
If you’re trying to make the case that Nate is getting pitched around more often than McCann this season, I will laugh in your face.
Which, if that’s being a dick, so be it. I wasn’t absolutely diplomatic in my prose, but I’ve also heard countless people insinuate that the only reason Nate’s OBP is so high is because he’s hitting 8th. That irks me, so if I came off a little snippy as a result, I do apologize.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
The lineup splits are so obvious though….
8th: .426 OBP, BB% 21.7% in 129 PAs in 2011
Other: .252 OBP, BB% 6.7% in 135 PAs in 2011
Of course, this is where the SSS defense gets thrown back in your face…
Does hitting 8th help a little bit? Sure. Does hitting 8th make up for a .174 difference in OBP? No way.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
That would be the “a little bit” part I referred to.
But, for his career, Nate is a very patient hitter who walks a lot. That’s not because he hits 8th
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions
So what's the answer?
The batting-8th number is over 2 SD away from the overall mean. It’s a bit of a stretch to say that it’s just random. I might could accept that it’s an effect of low sample size, although that grows less likely as the season goes on and Nate accumulates more PAs.
I was leaning towards the pitched-around explanation myself, although I can be persuaded otherwise. Another explanation might be psychological. But I do think the effect is real, and not just random variation.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Maybe he understands that his power is not where it once was, and he had to develop more patience? That’s likely.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
And rightfully so...
Eliminating a portion of the SS never makes the statistic more accurate.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Assuming that the environmental conditions of each subset of samples is the same also skews the accuracy of data…
Nate's definitely underperformed a 7m dollar contract...
but to say he’s been the hole in this lineup this year is a HUGE stretch and obviously unsubstantiated. (see one Alex Gonzalez)
Fortunately...
The fellows that wrote The Book did exactly this study and found there was a negligible amount of environmental change between each of the spots in the order.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
it's also funny...
that given Heyward’s injuries/struggles this year, if nate could slug anywhere near his career norms he be far and away our most productive OF haha
Fine, as long as we're generalizing about the nature of data...
In 2011 Nate is currently cruising at a BB rate of 14.0% which is helping him to a combined .345 OBP in 2011.
However, if the data is more representative of Nate’s skills as a hitter, and not his position in the lineup, then if you transpose his 10.3% career BB rate into his 2011 stat line…Nate is getting on base at a more modest rate of .311 OBP.
That might work...
If a career existed in a vacuum and players didn’t get better and/or worse.
Nate walked at ~5.0% for his first two years, so you’re haphazardly throwing that into an unrelated sample. That’s 15.8% of the PAs for his career, so it affects the sample considerably. It’s hard to believe that those walks will have an amazing effect upon Nate at the plate in 2011.
Let’s pretend for a second that you could do this and actually not fuck up the integrity of the results, which you can’t.
Instead of using his entire career, use the last three years to trend it. In the last three seasons including this one, you’re looking at a BB% of 13.0%, which alters his walks drawn by only one for the season…making his OBP .342, just .003 behind his current OBP.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
But…he’s not hitting 8th and he’s still getting on base…so yeah….
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
How about McOverpaid?
All I could think about when I saw McLouth hit that homer is: “it’s about time”. Here is a guy that makes more than McCann and people on this blog want to argue that because he draws walks in the eighth spot, that means he should be in the lineup. It looks like to me that when Chipper gets back that McLouth is a 4th outfielder at best on this team. Sorry, I don’t care how you spin it, McLouth has been a weak spot in this lineup for two years now.
He’s been a weak spot for 1 year in this lineup. In no way can you spin it that he has been the weak spot, or even a singular weak spot this year.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Avg =. .229, Hr. = 4, RBI = 14
That looks pretty weak to me for a player making 7 million a year and was an all star for the Pirates.
Well, any time you use antiquated stats that don’t actually show a player’s true value, you’re going to be disappointed with a guy that is generally slotted to hit 8th.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Everything buy OBP is not “antiquated”, I hate that argument.
I say this while generally agreeing with your statement. Nate hasn’t been as bad as those stats would indicate, but he certainly hasn’t been good.
"Venters is throwing circus pitches up there. It’s a circus. I was like, what the hell did he just throw me?" - Hunter Pence
.312 wOBA to a league average of ~.325, wRC+ of 97, with 100 being average.
He’s basically been a little short of average.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Antiquated stats?
This isn’t fantasy baseball. This is real baseball. Watch what happens in real situations when McLouth comes up with runners on. He generally comes up small.
Fantasy baseball uses the stats you just posted. Real baseball uses better stats. Good try though!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, and as far as him hitting with runners on…
All he has done is hit .259 .412 .358 .770 with runners on.
But, maybe you are referring to him hitting with runners in scoring position? Ok, well in that case, I can see how his .308 .526 .462 .988 with RISP in 2011 would seem to you like he’s coming up short most of the time. This also explains his low RBI total which you felt obligated to point out as if it were somehow an indicator of how he is doing at the plate.
So once again, Naters gonna Nate.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Jeez...
It’s gonna be WW3 on here when Chipper’s back in the lineup and Nate becomes the 4th OFer…
That’s a great response to this discussion. You have countered my point well.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
It was a statement, not a response. You and I both know Schafer is going to stay in the starting lineup at CF…whether either of us prefer it or not.
While a ball club is winning, I think it acceptable to allow a young player to prove themself to see if they are in your future plans, or if you have to acquire better talent at the position in the offseason. Nate McLouth is certainly not part of 2012 and beyond w/o taking a massive paycut. My 2 cents…
I don’t know that Schafer will stay in CF at all, and neither do you. He’s the better defender, which is why he is playing there right now, but Nate is clearly the better hitter – which is why he was playing there before getting hurt.
I agree that Nate is not part of the future plans in Atlanta, and based on his performance to date, he shouldn’t be, unless being considered as a 4th OFer.
However, he has performed reasonably well this season, and is not the bane of our offensive non-existence as many on here like to claim.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ve never claimed that. I’ve just argued he isn’t as good as his current numbers (especially his BB rate) would indicate.
To not allow Schafer to get PAs to determine if he has the ability to be a ML hitter (he’s still in effect a rookie, in terms of experience) while his cost-controlled years are ticking away wouldn’t be the most prudent course either. And as I’ve argued, he’s shown flashes, and his baserunning is excellent (excluding yesterday’s putout at 3B).
Schafer’s base-running has been questionable at best so far this season. He’s made several mistakes. BUT, I am not going to say he is a bad base-runner. I think he is one of the best, if not the best on the team.
However, Nate McLouth is also an excellent base-runner. Of course, McLouth isn’t going to continue to put up a Barry Bond-esque walk rate, however, for his career, he has always had a very good BB%.
I think you hit it on the head though – Schafer needs PAs. Those PAs should not be coming at the expense of the MLB team this season. We have a legit shot at a world series title. Experimenting with an unproven commodity at the top of the order is not the most prudent way to go about winning that. I’ll sacrifice the D in CF if it means I get a 7% decrease in outs made at the plate.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh man, I think if we could get those three, we would be set!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would you want Reyes and Kemp?
Damon is the only addition to Pujols we need.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Well, and Halladay and Lee. Do you think Randal Delgado and Ed Salcedo would be enough to get them from Philly? If not, we can always throw in Derek Lowe.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Hold on now, if we throw in KK, they have to eat all of his salary and throw a B-level prospect back in return.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Avg – who cares what his average is? He’s getting on base a ton.
HR – I forgot that we were counting on 20 HRs from him and hitting him in the heart of the order
RBI – seriously?
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
If McLouth is so good then why has he been replaced in Center two years in a row. Ankiel took his job last year and now Jordan. Seriously, I don’t hate McLouth but I see him as a bench player when Chipper comes back. Nate has a good attitude and is a team player. I am sure he will handle it like a pro. I like him fine. I don’t see him helping this team win that much. I am glad he was able to make a contribution yesterday.
Jordan hasn't taken his job.
Jordan’s the better defending CF, so he plays there, but they’ve both been playing. That makes sense while they’re waiting for injuries to heal. If Schafer is starting after everyone’s back, then he will have taken his job…but it hasn’t happened yet.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Mclouth isn’t good. He is a mediocre hitter. Schafer has been a terrible hitter. There is a big difference between mediocre and terrible. Maybe Schafer will continue his signs of life that he showed this series, but there is nothing at all to suggest he will produce even close to Mclouth at the plate the rest of the year.
You don’t see how Nate helps the team win, even though he makes outs far less frequently than 6 other starting players?
I think this conversation has gone on long enough.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, here's the deal...
You can argue that Nate is pretty good, but not good enough at any one thing to stay in the lineup. He’s not a good enough defender to play CF full time, and by the standards of today’s baseball, he doesn’t hit well enough to be a corner outfielder. And he doesn’t hit well enough to be used as a pinch hitter, and besides, we’ve already got a very good LH PH in Hinske.
But it’s true that there have been guys that we have relied on, and continue to rely on this year that have hit a lot worse then McLouth. Schafer, A-Gon, Mather and Hicks to name a few.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
Basically, the entire offense outside of Chipper, McCann, Prado and Freeman have been worse.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 8:20 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s definitely overpaid, but his performance at the plate this season is nearly league-average. I like Schafer as much as the next guy, but he’s a much worse player at the plate to this point.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Jul 18, 2011 12:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Obviously Detroit won’t take them both, but if we could convince Detroit to take Lowe’s whole salary and of course not give us much, we could afford to take Beltran from the Mets without having to give them near as much. I think that would be the best situation. I know that Mike Minor doesn’t have the track record of Lowe, but if he produced as well or as bad as Lowe has this year, however you want to look at it, then I think adding Beltran would be a big addition.
by michaelcooksey on Jul 18, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
I was a nervous wreck listening to that game in my iPhone (storm knocked out DirecTV).
I plowed through five Stone’s Ruination Ales. I am paying for it today. I didn’t get drunk, so I’m feeling fairly cheated about having a slight hangover.
We DID it ;-) So happy this road trip will start off with success to end the home stand.
~ "The NL - where our pitchers do more than just play with their balls." ~
by NCChopper on Jul 18, 2011 11:20 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs
love it
You shouldn’t sip liquor.
-justincredubil02
no, Jack Daniel is whiskey.
-ChopMaster
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while."
.....
“They’re looking for a right-handed hitter who can play each of the outfield positions.”
What about Reed Johnson from the Cubs? He’s cheap, only making 900k this year on a 1 yr deal, and has a career .315/.374/.467 line against LHP. I realize not a “sexy” name out there, but he fits that description and our current budget. I guess the only concern I have on him is that is he really any better than Wilkin… Can we just fleece the Marlins and get Infante back?
The best Johnson option would have only cost $3M in arbitration…le sigh…
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Meh…only the ones with talent who were terrible decisions to let go in the first place.
I have no love-lost for Edgar Renteria or Marcus Giles. :D
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
what about furcal, lemke, blauser?
I think braves live had a poll question for one of the gnats games that said “who is your favorite 2nd baseman to play for the braves” with giles, kelly johnson, glenn hubbard, and lemke as options, and I just imagined you texting in for like 20 mins straight to sway the poll for KJ
TWSS
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t charge that much!
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jul 18, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Johnson wouldn't be a long term option
He’s 34, and I’m a bit suspicious of the power numbers he’s putting up this year… his SLG is way above his career average, even allowing for his previous stint with the Cubs. Still might work for a 2-year solution. And yeah, we could probably get him pretty cheap. However, I think if I had the opportunity to choose between him and Chris Denorfia, and the cost was about the same, I’d go with Denorfia.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
in no way did I mean a long term option
a 2 month bench option is all I had in mind really, and with Johnson coming up on free agency, seems likely the Cubs would be willing to deal him. Denorfia and RJ look like they have similar numbers, but Denorfia is under team control for 3 more years, so he would likely cost more
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