The Braves' Brandon Beachy: A Surprise Strikeout Artist
by Jacob Peterson on Jun 28, 2011 1:05 PM EDT
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PrintBrandon Beachy's odyssey from undrafted free agent to quality MLB starter has been well documented. Almost nobody saw much potential in him, and at first, it's easy to see why. He's not a flamethrower, usually sitting in the low 90s on his fastball. He's not intimidating, and he doesn't have an unusual delivery or anything else to set him apart.
Yet here he is, thriving in the major leagues. Granted, it is very early in his career, but how many undrafted players even make it to the big leagues? He's already beaten the odds.
Actually, I think "beaten" is not a strong enough word. Perhaps "demolished" or "annihilated" would work better. So far this year, Beachy has struck out 66 batters in only 56 and a third innings. That's a 10.5 K/9 mark, which is otherworldly for a starting pitcher.
Normally when you see a young pitcher with a great strikeout rate, you expect a high walk rate as well, but Beachy hasn't shown much wildness. He's walked only 15 guys, and 4 of those were intentional (he's also hit 2 batters). That works out to a 2.4 BB/9 and a 2.08 (UIBB+HBP)/9. How rare is this combination of a super-high strikeout rate and a low walk rate? The following is a list of the only 11 players in MLB history to qualify for an ERA title with a K/9 of at least 10 and a BB/9 of no more than 3:
| Rk | Player | Yrs | From | To | Age | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Johnson | 6 | 1995 | 2004 | 31-40 | Ind. Seasons |
| 2 | Curt Schilling | 5 | 1997 | 2003 | 30-36 | Ind. Seasons |
| 3 | Pedro Martinez | 4 | 1997 | 2002 | 25-30 | Ind. Seasons |
| 4 | Sandy Koufax | 2 | 1962 | 1965 | 26-29 | Ind. Seasons |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | 1 | 2009 | 2009 | 26-26 | Ind. Seasons |
| 6 | Tim Lincecum | 1 | 2009 | 2009 | 25-25 | Ind. Seasons |
| 7 | Erik Bedard * | 1 | 2007 | 2007 | 28-28 | Ind. Seasons |
| 8 | Ben Sheets | 1 | 2004 | 2004 | 25-25 | Ind. Seasons |
| 9 | Johan Santana | 1 | 2004 | 2004 | 25-25 | Ind. Seasons |
| 10 | Mark Prior | 1 | 2003 | 2003 | 22-22 | Ind. Seasons |
| 11 | Mike Scott | 1 | 1986 | 1986 | 31-31 | Ind. Seasons |
* Quite a coincidence that Beachy's mound opponent last night, Bedard, made the list. Also, very surprising. Bedard's a good pitcher, but that one season is really an anomaly in his career.
Pretty impressive list, huh? If Beachy can keep up his current performance, he'll be in extremely select company.
Now it's time for the disclaimers: that is a huge "if" in the last paragraph. Even if Beachy stays healthy enough to qualify for the ERA title (and he can't afford to miss many more starts if he wants to do that), it is very likely that the league will adjust to him at least somewhat. His K/9 probably won't stay above 10, and his BB/9 will probably go up as well.
And, of course, even if Beachy does join the list, that does not mean that he is going to be the next Curt Schilling. I love Beachy as much as anyone, but even if he manages to stay healthy, I doubt that he has the ceiling of those dominant pitchers. Of course, it'll be years before we know how good Beachy really is. For now, let's just appreciate how awesome Beachy has been and hope he can beat the odds once more and keep it up all year.
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4.0
Beachy is just a smart pitcher who knows how to attack the opposition. He may not keep the K/BB rate he has now, but u know he will be well prepared for every team he faces! Great game plans he and Mac got going on. Dudes legit! Go Braves!
Every time I read about Beachy
It goes something like this: “Wow, look at these stats. He is dominating. He looks great. This is incredible! But at some point, he will regress and he won’t continue to dominate.”
Now, I’m not picking on pac specifically. In fact, I tend to agree at this point. But my question is this: when do we start to believe someone like this really is a dominant player like his stats suggest? I guess we need a few years of this before we really believe?
BTW…that list of pitchers…it’s um…pretty good.
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
I'd want two full seasons' worth of data to be sure
and at least one full season before I’d really start to think it’s possible that he’s this good. Still, it’s fun to think about even now.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on Jun 28, 2011 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions
That list of pitchers...
Johnson and Schilling seem to have a pretty long, consistent stretch of that there that no one before them (even the great Sandy Koufax) couldn’t come close too, at an age far older than anyone else on that list. And both had their runs end right about the time of testing. Interesting coincidence?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
True.
Tho they also happened to get old at that time.
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
Mike Scott's the only other name on that list that did it after 30...
and for one season. Every season listed for Johnson and Schilling is 30+. That’s not “happened to get old” when the run ended. In baseball terms, they were old when their run of historical dominance even began.
Take out Pedro, who was as dominant as it gets during his run and probably juiced heavily too, and Schilling/Johnson combine not only for more of those seasons than every other P in baseball history combined. At an age older than every other pitcher who’s done it. Again, just an interesting coincidence huh?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I guess you are suspicious of every all-time great pitcher that did things that most others could not? That is just part of being a historically great pitcher. I’m not saying they didn’t juice, but there is absolutely nothing linking them to that. Are you suspicious of Halladay seemingly getting better each year as he ages into his mid-30s?
Halladay is subject to testing...
those guys pitched at an unprecedented level and did so when steroid use was at it’s most common, at an age no other had before or after, and immediately stopped doing so when testing began.
Suspicious of every? Nope. Suspicious of those with a massive convergence of multiple red flags? Yep.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I wouldn’t say they immediately stopped doing so when testing began. Just because they didn’t have historical seasons doesn’t mean they weren’t still great pitchers. Just look at their stats. Randy Johnson was probably the best pitcher in baseball in 2007 (he missed making this list again in that year by a few walks), well after testing was implemented. You’re basically contradicting yourself by being suspicious of them for pitching well into their 30s but not pitching as well into their late 30s. They shouldn’t be punished because they got old at the same time as testing became more prevalent.
They were old when the runs started
and if you think I’m speaking in contradictions, then you’re implying things that aren’t said.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Amen
His K/9 probably won’t stay above 10, and his BB/9 will probably go up as well.
I know that’s just “playing it safe”, but has shown NOTHING to put doubt in our minds that he is pitching above his head. This is how he pitched in the minors. This is how he has pitched all this year.
Maybe he really is a 10 K/9, 2.4 BB/9.
Maybe he really is a #2 and not a #4.
Maybe he really is this good.
I say we give him the benefit of the doubt until he proves otherwise.
I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
If he’s putting up numbers like this, he’s a #1 pitcher in development.
"Give him the heater Ricky."
I just said #2 cause I see Hanson as our #1 for many years, but I wouldn’t mind 1a and 1b.
I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
Yeah I figured, but if Philly can have 1a, 1aa, 1aaa, 1aaaa, and 5, then I believe we can too lol.
"Give him the heater Ricky."
We may have our own four 1’s situation soon with the quality of pitching we have coming up.
I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
Yep. One gets better as they go, the other gets worse.
I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
And
not to mention ours comes about because of good scouting and development instead of just buying everyone they can get their hands on.
Well...
even if he is trading, I think JJ has the ability to be a number 1 on quite a few teams in mlb.
It's weird
I think JJ would be happy as a clam to stay an Atlanta Brave. I also think Hanson can’t wait for FA to get the hell out. I’d try to extend JJ and keep Hanson thru his 1st arbitration year, then trade Hanson. Both are Boras clients, but JJ grew up watching Andruw and the Braves on TBS with his Dad. Meanwhile, Hanson is the 1st Brave that had to be “unilaterally renewed” for not accepting the Braves salary offer since Frenchy.
"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G
What has Hanson done to show that he wants the hell out?
This is the same guy that the organization refused to trade for Jake Peavy. I think Hanson knows how the organization views him, and I think that would make anyone feel more than welcome and at home.
My dad taught me how to make meat for sloppy joes and my mom let me turn over hot dogs on the grill.
by ChopMaster on Jun 25, 2011 7:25 PM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Jun 28, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It's just my opinion
He obviously felt slighted by the Braves salary offer prior to this season. He refused to accept it and had to be unilaterally renewed. Seems to me he wants to play hardball in his negotiations. That’s fine, he has that right. Meanwhile, we have JJ seeming to be happy with his contract, no reports to the contrary at all.
"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G
we can have more than one ace
Is Cliff Lee not an ace because he is on a staff with Roy Halladay?
Regress?
I think the whole ’let’s wait to see if he regresses’ argument is sometimes overblown (no offense to those who believe in this). And I do realize that every player eventually regresses, to some point. I just don’t like the whole ’he’s not really that good’ implication. As someone else said, maybe he just IS that good.
I think Beachy can maintain those numbers, due to his intelligence.
I’ll take a smart pitcher with good stuff over a not-so-smart pitcher with great stuff every time.
his intelligence?
Greg Maddux is arguably the smartest pitcher who ever toed the rubber and he’s not on this list. Not saying Beachy isn’t smart, I just think that has little to do with these particular numbers.
Hey, shut up! You're not my real mom ~
by Jareth Cutestory on Jun 28, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Time will def tell
But it is fun to speculate how good the staff is and can be if they keep progressing and adapting to the big leagues. Plus we have so much depth in the system that even if Beachy starts to cool down or come back to earth, the braves have it covered. JJ, Tommy, and Beachy should continue to be a staple in the rotation for years. And they are all smart pitchers that continue to work hard and try to stay ahead of hitters mentally and physically. BTW whats up everyone!? I finally decided to create an account after reading TC daily for over a year! about time! Love this site….
If the FO put a list together right now...
of all the SP talent in the organization, rating them by production, upside, years of cost control, etc…where do you think Beachy ranks right now?
I’m just curious if he’s put himself ahead of Tommy or JJ because of how affordable he will be in the next few years…
No
Definitely not above Tommy. JJ is pitching fantastic, and if we believe he will keep this up, he’s not above him yet either. That’s not to say that another season like this and maybe he won’t be. But there is no way that right now he is there yet.
hmm
I would put him after Tommy JJ and Teheran tbh, but ahead of everyone else for the foreseeable future.
Potentially stupid question warning
Since Beachy was an undrafted free agent, he’s only under club control for this year’s contract at $400,000, correct? So, if he ends up dominating all the way to the World Series, the Braves or any other team could offer him a multi-year deal?
I guess what I’m getting at is what are the chances that Beachy hangs around after this year?
"It wasn’t that it was slippery or anything like that. It was just, dadgum, my hands and the balls were so wet..." - Tim Hudson
by KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) on Jun 28, 2011 1:42 PM EDT reply actions
No.
He’ll still have five years of team control after this year. Whether he was drafted or not does not in any way affect his MLB service time.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Thanks for clearing that up.
"It wasn’t that it was slippery or anything like that. It was just, dadgum, my hands and the balls were so wet..." - Tim Hudson
by KoKo the Monkey (T-Bone) on Jun 28, 2011 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Ben Sheets hurt himself...
reading this list…
by TBuzz on Jun 28, 2011 1:53 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Those stats are certainly attractive, that’s supreme company. However, looking past the stats, Beachy’s mound presence in the first two innings last night (I was only able to watch the first two) was hard to believe. I can’t remember the last time I was as impressed with a young pitcher’s presence on the mound. Does he even know who Ichiro is?
I'm ashamed of what I've done for a Klondike bar.
It's really a lot of fun
for us fans to see just how good Beachy can be. His poise is really rare for a young guy and he is getting some remarkable results.
by LEastCoastBears on Jun 28, 2011 4:32 PM EDT reply actions
Interesting to see Scott's name on there.
I can honestly say that I have a great uncle who compared Scott and Beachy. He said that Beachy looked just like Scott did on the mound. The thing that is scary about that comparison is that Scott was an extremely cerebral pitcher, and when the stuff dipped slightly, he went from runner-up in the CY in 1989 to out of baseball after two starts in 1991. That ’86 season was a huge outlier, but he had a very nice run from 85-89 that would be excellent to get from Brandon.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
I'll repeat my post from another thread today:
He’s been so good on the mound since returning.
So much fun to watch him do his work.
No matter the count or situation he keeps his poise and never looks rattled out there. Very mature for his age.
"In the happy moments, praise God. In the difficult moments, seek God. In the quiet moments, trust God. In every moment, thank God." - Robert A. Wood
Keep up with the hesitant doubts...
And he’ll continue to prove you wrong! The kid is as polished of a kid you’ll ever meet who has been thrown into the limelight and onto the scene! He’s untapped…you ain’t seen nothing yet.
His family should be commended for raising such an awesome young man.
The best is yet to come. What stinks is everyone waits for the bottom to fall out and the Beachy fairy tale to be over. If he were a 1st round pick doing this, he’d be the feature on ESPN nightly…but he’s a free agent sign who’s earned it the hard way. That should tell you all you need to know about this kid!
by Braves12 on Jun 28, 2011 8:57 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
The key to real estate investing...
Location, location, location.
The thing that impresses me most is Beachy’s ability to hit his target, with all his pitches.
I’m not much versed in Sabermetrics, so if there’s already a stat for this I’m not aware of it, but I am less interested in how much the pitch moves than in how much (actually how little) the catcher’s glove moves.
When you combine the ability to put quality pitches where you want them with the intelligence to keep hitters off-balance with pitch selection you have the chance to be something special.
by John Drake number 6 on Jun 28, 2011 11:39 PM EDT reply actions
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