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How bad we want Schafer to thrive

Some might be thinking that the biggest hole in the lineup is center field, and that it's the place to upgrade with a trade regardless of Schafer's performance. 

However, many of the available center fielders are in walk years, Coco Crisp and Mike Cameron for example, so we might need a starter in '12 even after a trade. 

Also, some other good bats are mediocre center fielders. (Matt Kemp for example) And if we keep them, we could be looking to move them to left upon Prado's move to 3B in the near future. 

Schafer also has the potential to be an allstar center fielder. 

At his best, it's easy to imagine a 20+ HR 30+ SB kind of leadoff hitter who can take a walk with gold glove defense

Add that to Heyward and Kemp, and we are talking the best outfield in baseball. 

Best outfield defense - 

Schafer - gold glove with elite arm

Kemp - Gold glove left fielder (or any CF we move to LF for Schafer)

Heyward - Gold Glove RF with elite arm

Best outfield offense - elite 123 in lineup

1. Schafer (L) - 20 HR - 30 SB

2. Kemp (R) - 30 HR - 30 SB

3. Heyward (L) - 30 HR - 10 SB

 

People are going to say, that is optimistic for Schafer , and I am going to say, yes it is... that is the point of the post.. How good of a piece he could be if he reaches his potential. If he does, he also allows us to move the CF we acquire to LF and for sure make the best OF defense in baseball. We are also going to need another outfielder when Prado moves to third, and we won't prob sign someone as good as Schafer at his potential. 

Yeah I snuck in a little rosterbation with Kemp, but the point of this post is really what a maximized Schafer could mean for our club. 

But to sneak a little more in... Kemp is perfect because he has a bat worth moving to a corner outfield spot, he is also perfect because he's amazing, power, average, speed. Also, he is available, and we can afford his contract as well as his cost in prospects. 

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Prado

Where would he play?!

by Jay212033 on Jun 12, 2011 9:30 PM EDT reply actions  

third base

I am talking about next year or the year after that..

If Chipper didnt play next year, prado would move in
If he did, he would stay in left field and Schafer would be a fourth OF

by willlinn on Jun 12, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's when it will be.

Chipper is doing well enough that he’ll play out his contract and then call it a career.

by cavebird on Jun 12, 2011 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

Matt Kemp…..right…

by Sir Stealth on Jun 12, 2011 9:43 PM EDT reply actions  

On what planet is Matt Kemp available?

He is the Dodgers’ best hitter, he is sign for this year and under team control through next year. Yes, the Dodgers’ finances are a mess right now, but he is there most marketable commodity (watch a Dodgers’ broadcast on EI [which I do just to listen to Scully] and you’ll see the ads) and let’s face it, the Dodgers will have new ownership before he’s a free agent and they’ll resign him long term. (Either MLB or the divorce court will order a sale, probably before the end of this season.)

by cavebird on Jun 12, 2011 10:17 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I think its too volatile to say he isn't available

Maybe they get a new owner and he gets resigned, but Vizcaino, Delgado, and Minor are prob more valuable to them than Kemp..

For us however, I don’t think that’s the case.

They will be listening to offers

by willlinn on Jun 12, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Kemp

STARTS with Teheran AND Delgado and ENDS with Betancourt and Salcedo.

You wanna give that up for a guy who, if he left LA, could pout and play miserably? Yeah.

by apoxonbothyourhouses on Jun 13, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Right, they really have no reason to sell low right now.

"If you were going to make a Mount Rushmore of managers, Bobby's one of them."
-Mike Scioscia

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jun 13, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would be suprised if Schafer hits 20 HR in a full season.

by Braves24 on Jun 12, 2011 10:57 PM EDT reply actions  

Or

We could sign someone like Josh Willingham to play LF

by cjones2010 on Jun 12, 2011 11:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Willingham + prospect haul + cash is likely more valuable than Kemp. Both players can/should hit for power and average with solid OBP but Kemp plays better defense and can steal bases. Is the extra speed/defense worth all that we would have to give up and not even play him in center?

Jason Heyward wins at baseball.

by bbxxj on Jun 12, 2011 11:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

The more I see of Schafer, the more I like him.

He knows how to take a walk, steals bases, and plays great defense. And as for Kemp, there is no way we could get him. I think even my call for McCutchen is more plausible, though still not likely.

"Sports is human life in microcosm."

Howard Cosell

by GouldisGold on Jun 12, 2011 11:30 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

I don’t see Schafer sniffing 20 HR’s. But I don’t reallt care about HR’s from a CF.If he’ll get on base and play good defense, that’s enough. I hope he can do it.

"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G

by bighop on Jun 12, 2011 11:37 PM EDT reply actions  

If you are going to make stuff up, why not go all out? Schafer in CF, Heyward in RF and Ryan Braun in LF.

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 12, 2011 11:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Pujols at first and Reyes at SS

by Braves24 on Jun 13, 2011 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

Why is everyone so high on Reyes? He’s vastly outperforming his career line this year. I wouldn’t touch him with a 39 and half foot pole, because his profile is pretty mediocre other than the fact that he steals bases (and if you think he won’t regress to those numbers, I have some oceanfront property in Utah I’d like to discuss with you). Add to that his recent slate of injuries and how much they dragged down his numbers last year and I’d rather invest in someone with a better power/obp profile because in the long run those are more valuable than the steals we’d lose by not having him around. He’s 28, so a breakout year like this is not without some merit, but I would be very cautious about betting on him to even halfway repeat.

"Baseball is a game where a curve is an optical illusion, a screwball can be a pitch or a person, stealing is legal and you can spit anywhere you like except in the umpire's eye or on the ball." -Jim Murray

by J-Freak on Jun 13, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shortstop is a pretty weak position across the league right now. The Braves have a pretty good one, though.

by kalesi on Jun 13, 2011 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

What, no Aaron or Murphy?

for shame.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 8:07 AM EDT up reply actions  

How the hell do we get Matt Kemp?

He’s the best player in the MLB right now

Steak, Shrimp, Liquor, and Pasta

by KINGSLYTUT on Jun 12, 2011 11:39 PM EDT reply actions  

Minor
Vizcaino
Delgado

by willlinn on Jun 13, 2011 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

wouldn't be nearly enough

People are like at least I'm not that guy on stage. That guy on stage is like at least I'm not that guy in the looney bin. The guy in the looney bin are like at least I'm an orange

by austinhb on Jun 13, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess you did think the Dan & Jordan post was well written and a good topic...

because this crap is even worse. Geez.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 8:10 AM EDT reply actions  

thank you

I don’t know what I would have done if I didn’t get the opinion of the great Mr’ Sanchez
Now it’s really a fan post. Thank you for gracing my comment thread with your usual cynicism and awfulness.

by willlinn on Jun 13, 2011 9:42 AM EDT up reply actions  

You wanted me as a bully...

there it goes. Great rosterbation post there buddy, really well thought out and realistic too.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions  

And please

be sure to call everyone else who’s pointing out how poorly written this thing is for bullying as well.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

How bad do we want Schafer to thrive: pretty bad

how was the quality of the rest of this article: pretty bad

by leedawg on Jun 13, 2011 8:15 AM EDT reply actions  

haha

I like people until I meet them.

by scorby911 on Jun 13, 2011 8:34 AM EDT up reply actions  

I want all of our Atlanta Braves to thrive. Always. Anything else is a big disappointment.

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 10:02 AM EDT up reply actions  

There

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

there's that, the general desire for Braves to succeed...

and with Schafer there’s just a lot more on top of that. We’ve really struggled in CF since Andruw left, and he could fill that void. McLouth has been far from what we thought we were getting, especially defensively with his near refusal to throw it back in on plays, so there’s the desire for something that’s not him, again especially defensively. Then, in addition to the lack of quality in CF, there’s been an overall lack of speed on the team since Furcal left. Speed is fun, and makes things exciting when you see players hump it from 1st to home on a long single, first to third on a soft flair to RF, etc. We all like speed, as evidenced by NASCAR success and the long history of success in racing in general (track as well as others). Humans like to see things that can go really fast, and Jordan Schafer can move pretty swift. We’ve wanted an elite CF for a few years, wanted a leadoff threat for a few years, and Schafer potentially fits both those bills. The young man has an awful lot going in regards to fans wanting him to succeed..

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

and well said, all mean internet bullying aside.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

I

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I've been known of late for blasting Schafer too I guess...

which really isn;‘t the case. Unlike others, I just don;’t expect more out of him offensively than he put up in AAA. He’s clearly a massive upgrade defensively, but the offensive questions are still there, and won’t go away. Even before the “wrist” excuse for his struggles (not saying it’s not a legitimate excuse, but it’s definitely an excuse) were noted as far as having too many Ks and the potential for major problems against lefties. But as said above, the desire for him to succeed as he was hyped to be a few years ago is still strong, and should be strong across the board for all who don’t hold the HGH accusations or “fu**ing success” stuff against him. For Braves fans, there’s lots of selfish reasons to want to see Schafer become an elite defensive CF and consistently .750-800+ OPS player, and that includes me as much as anyone.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Somehow, I’ve gotten the reputation for being a Schafer hater. Seriously? Just because I say that Nate McLouth is a better hitter right now???

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 13, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

yea

it doesn’t make sense

by Braves24 on Jun 13, 2011 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pointing out facts = hating, duh.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

that's my biggest problem w/ both of you knuckleheads...

who brings facts to a blog… i mean really?

Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT

by Klemson Krash on Jun 14, 2011 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think all of us (me, Mr.S, justin) are very close to the same place. I’d keep Schafer in CF (although maybe batting 8th) and play McLouth off the bench, because of the very high value I put on superior defense in CF.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions  

Depends on who else is back...

bring back Heyward, McLouth, and Prado, and imo, Schafer gets squeezed and can go back to AAA. Not so much that McLouth is better, just that with Ross, Conrad, Hicks or Hernandez, Mather, Hinske, among others, it’s hard to fit McLouth in without having to either send down Conrad or expose Mather to waivers because we can assume Hinske, Ross, and SS (Hicks/Hernandez) are set in stone on the bench in times of full health. But until all 3 are back, we need OF, and Schafer needs to stay up working. He’s by no means a leadoff hitter, at least not yet and may never be long term. But I’m enjoying what he brings right now and hoping he can keep tweaking things to improve. His D is already where we need it, and you’d assume will only get better as he gets more accustomed to the backgrounds he’s reading and the Ps he’s working behind. But it’s that O that’s the ?. .600 ops just won’t cut it, and he needs to get it at least to .700, if not .750+, and looking at his past there are serious question on if he can get there. But so long as he’s working with, and listening to, the best hitting coach in the organization (one Larry Wayne Jones of course), there’s reasons to be optimistic, and lots of reasons to hope for the best.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

my opinion: Mather should be sent down (or lost on a waivers claim) and Schafer should stay in CF.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

I like Mather's versatility on the bench...

but if his bat doesn’t pick up, I’d have a hard time disagreeing with that opinion.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

And one more reason to hope Schafer thrives,...

it answers one of the biggest question marks going in to this winter of who is the long term solution in CF.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions  

This.

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 13, 2011 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

Right. I’m still waffling — one foot on the bandwagon, one foot off.

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think McLouth is the better offensive option right now, and it’s not like his D in CF kills us to the tune of the Glider out in LF a few years back. His D in CF is tolerable, IMO. He isn’t great, but he also isn’t as bad as people make him out to be – except for his arm…that thing is offensive.

That being said, it does Jordan no good to be the 4th OFer on our roster. He needs to be playing every day, so unfortunately for him, the best move is to have McLouth back in CF for the rest of this season, and Jordan get the helm full time next season.

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 13, 2011 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions  

/shunn off

I just want to note my disagreement. Jordan needs to play himself out of the lineup and nominal offense (so far) aside, he hasn’t yet done so. The .589 OPS is ugly, but in 16 games, he’s scored 11 runs and stolen 7 bases in 9 attempts. And he’s been very good in CF.

Nate is at .673 OPS in 48 games (i.e, not very much better, particularly if we optimisticly assume Jordan should see his go up) with only 25 runs and 1 SB in 3 attempts. And has been well-below average in CF, especially when the noodle arm is considered.

/shunn back on

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

That .589 is a bit surprising...

cause watching him (albeit not all games every game), it seems like he’s been doing a lot better than that at the plate. Maybe it’s just the games I’m watching.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

(and I do recognize bighop’s comments below [re: competition]. Nonetheless, it’s the only data we have to work with right now!)

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

very cool. thanks & rec’ed.
This new stat (did you just create it?) gives credit to the value and importance of sucessfully stealing bases, which I have argued is dramatically under-appreciated.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

I went back to fangraphs and looked for anything that looked like it might take steals into account and found nothing, so then I I started tinkering for exactly the reasons you suggest (so, yeah, I guess I invented a stat!).

Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve been trying to conjure up ways to properly assess JS’s value as an offensive player, and everything seems to be leaving out the walks and stolen bases. Maybe this will help.

For comparison purposes (and for fun), I just ran the career eOPS numbers on the Prototypical Leadoff Men Of Our Era… to see if (a) the stat works, and (b) how our guys stack up. Here we go:

Deion Sanders .758 (barely above Nate/Schafe. interesting)
Otis Nixon .803
Rafael Furcal .847
Lou Brock .851
Now the eye-popping numbers…
Kenny Lofton .906
Rickey Henderson .998

Now the big difference in the last four guys in that they all have/had at least 100 career homers – that certainly helps the total bases component. Deion’s numbers were hurt due to only 123 net stolen bases, and never played more than 115 games in a single season. Oh, and his walk% sucked.

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

wOBA includes steals.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, Fangraphs’ version doesn’t include steals, but there are versions that do. This is the formula with steals:

wOBA = (.72*NIBB + .75*HBP + .9*S + .92*ROE + 1.24*D + 1.56*T + 1.95*HR + .25*SB – .5*CS)/PA

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pretty sure fangraphs uses steals...

Which is why they didn’t include steals in the baserunning component of WAR (unless they changed that shortly after adding baserunning…I know for sure at the time Bsr came out, steals were in the equation).

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Jun 13, 2011 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

*I know for sure at the time Bsr came out, steals were in the wOBA equation).

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Jun 13, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Then you’re right. I thought they did but when I checked afterward I couldn’t find anything. If it does include steals, which I will take your word for and agree with, there’s not much of a use for this new OPS stat. It’s a good effort, but a better weighted metric is already out.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 5:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

(I'll defend myself for a bit)

Does wOBA really help us?
Schafer’s wOBA is .288; Nate’s is .305.

I can’t resolve the values above via either formula by back-computing all the source data, so I still don’t know how they’re getting those numbers. I tried both the formula above and the original cited on fangraphs.

I was looking for an understandable way to take OPS and factor in steals plus walks — which OPS clearly doesn’t do… I do think eOPS is a decent way to compare the performance of lead-off hitters. I am not trying to evaluate the “value” of each outcome as wOBA does (via the weights) — I have to question that a bit since those values are partly up to the hitters who follow, and will vary from team to team.

So there ya go…

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 8:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

OPS is a pretty silly stat to begin with. Adding weights to each outcome is much smarter theoretically and in application. wOBA tells us pretty much everything we need to know.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 14, 2011 12:44 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Y'all can keep that up...

but I’ll never buy the argument that an algebra equation can tell you everything about a player, especially if you just look at it’s component stats together and listed individually.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 14, 2011 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s based on studies regarding run expectancy, which is why HBP > BB.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 14, 2011 6:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

Gee, I can’t guess how I couldn’t figure that out!…

Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"

by carpengui on Jun 13, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Quite the contrary, it’s extremely over-appreciated.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

we seem to disagree frequently

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

If you can keep McLouth/Schafer up, start McLouth, bring Schafer in for defense.

by Broccoman on Jun 13, 2011 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Schafer is currently putting up a .222 ba, .319 ob%, sub .600 ops. VS primarily the Mets, Astros and Marlins who were dropping like a rock. If he can improve those numbers a little, against decent competition, he might be the answer. 9K’s / 9BB’s is a tremendous improvement over his “bad wrist days”. His stolen bases haven’t been vs real good catchers, the Astros throw out about 20% of attempted steals.

Schafer definitely changes the dynamic of the team, I hope he works out.

"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G

by bighop on Jun 13, 2011 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions  

Not to mention i burned up ebay working on this a few years ago

I need him to stick so it impresses people again.

Coming soon: winningugly visits Atlanta, takes dump in royhobbs’ Braves hat.

by 10-4 on Jun 13, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

I'm still impressed even if he never gets another ball out of the infield

Dedication you have there sir.

"If you were going to make a Mount Rushmore of managers, Bobby's one of them."
-Mike Scioscia

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jun 13, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

on a side note, what do yall think of calling up Constanza right now?

Just cause he is hot, it was just posted on the main wall here.. IL player of the week, he is fast, a switch hitter.. I know you don’t wanna take Schafer out of the lineup, but it is tempting to pull him up over Young

by willlinn on Jun 13, 2011 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Who do you dump off the 40 man roster? We’ll risk losing another when Moylan comes off the 60 day DL too.

"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G

by bighop on Jun 13, 2011 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

Constanza isn’t a switch hitter. He’s a lefty hitter only. I’ve told you this before. It’s an easy thing not to get wrong.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Jun 13, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions  

Available CF

Does anyone think with the Twins being bad this year that Denard Spann might not be available?

by BravesfaninMontana on Jun 13, 2011 3:50 PM EDT reply actions  

Didn't they sign him to a very team-friendly deal not too long ago?

"If you were going to make a Mount Rushmore of managers, Bobby's one of them."
-Mike Scioscia

by The Keith Lockhart Era on Jun 13, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

It's fairly team-friendly

…but they’re also shopping him, but it has nothing to do with their record (which is the best in the league in June right now, and their division is such that as Mauer and the rest of the DL bunch come back, they could easily still take the division). They currently have their top position prospects, save Miguel Sano, all playing CF, so Span will be expendable soon (if not already, depending on how much you like Revere – not too much for me).

The Twins are in the midst of one of their typical June explosions, and with their team coming together from injury, they possibly will be more looking for high reward in their trades this year. I could see them definitely moving Delmon Young no matter where they are in the race, but I could see him being moved for a cog for their bullpen.

"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben

by biggentleben on Jun 14, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I wonder what Span would cost...

a strong relief arm now and a couple prospect to boot? Unless we’re punting on Schafer, he doesn’t make sense for us, although we’d have the arms to get the deal done. I wonder if San Diego is a better fit. Maybin hasn’t been poor, but he hasn’t lit it up either. And with Span’s deal, a move of say Heath Bell for Span and a prospect would make some sense to me for both sides.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 14, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would say if the Twins got a year of Bell

…for Span, they’d be overjoyed. The issue they’ve had in Minnesota lately is then resigning a guy like Bell for big money and multiple years to close, a la Matt Capps and, to a lesser (but more money) degree, Joe Nathan. I’m sure they’d be all over a guy like Bell or Hanrahan if they could get one of them. Otherwise, I think Young is the only sure goner in the Twins outfield right now if they keep playing better.

"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben

by biggentleben on Jun 17, 2011 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

ZiPS projects McLouth for a .338 wOBA and Schafer for .280…. Why anyone would just assume Schafer is going to hit better is beyond me. His current wOBA is .288 and it was .285 at triple-A. If anything, you have to assume his numbers will drop since he is bound to strikeout more frequently.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 4:40 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

Or you could simply assume nothing because he has < 200 PA at AAA when his wrist wasn’t greatly hurting his performance.

Let the kid play.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Jun 13, 2011 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions  

He has over 250 PA this season combined between AAA and at the MLB and has shown no reason for anyone to assume he will hit better this season. It’s pure lunacy to assume that he will. Can he? Sure. But to just assume that he will, as people did previously, is pretty absurd.

Apparently because Nate’s struggles were in everyone’s face every day people easily look over the same struggles Jordan has had over that same span. Were injuries involved? Yes, to both. The argument today is no different than the argument was before the season. If the Braves want to go with Schafer because of his defense then that’s fine and completely understandable, but to say it is because his bat is better than McLouth’s is pretty absurd – not saying you believe this but many here do. McLouth is the better bat and Schafer is the better glove, just as the case was before either had a plate appearance this season.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

For what it’s worth I do agree with you. Not many do though. I really do not get all the adulation thrown at Schafer. “Optimistic” that he’ll hit 20 home runs one day? To be polite, I’d say “Highly unlikely”. Heck, I’m not sure he can even reach 10 per season in the majors. He hasn’t exactly torn up AAA yet. Yes, he got off to a great start at Gwinnett, like here, and then faded, like here to a certain extent. The speed is there, the defense is there, but can he hit? I think the jury is still out on that one.

by Zontar on Jun 13, 2011 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Many do agree with me, just not many here.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

or those here just aren't as vocal...

and insistent on it as those who aren’t and still think all things McLouth = awful.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

In his past five games, Schafer is 6-for-21 (.286) with a triple, six runs, and five steals. That is not exactly fading.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions  

His wRC+ is 78 and McLouth’s last season was 72. This notion that he’s been good offensively has nothing to base it off of.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 6:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with all that. Currently, Nate is the better bat and Schafer is the better glove. However, the belief that Schafer can’t improve to Nate’s level of hitting is pretty absurd as well.

Has he shown it yet?? No, not at all, not since 2008 and his healthy 2009 sample size (which is tiny). But he’s still got plenty of time to do so (five years after this one, by my count). It’s obvious that the injury seriously debilitated him, and that he was incredibly uncomfortable at the plate prior to this season. As he gets more PAs and gets better adjusted at the plate, there’s no reason he can’t significantly improve upon his current 250 PA sample size.

I take anyone who projects Schafer’s future performance with a grain of salt at this point…what exactly are they going off of?? His past circumstances are so convoluted, by his own doing as well as factors beyond his control, and I don’t know that there’s any one sample size you can look at and receive anything more than a glint of what the future holds.

All we can really do is hope for the best and fear for the worst. He’s bound to land somewhere in between…but anyone who says, “I called this, and here’s the definitive statistical proof why,” is full of shit. His past statistical performance is as filled with good as it is bad, and there’s no way to cognitively separate the two.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Jun 13, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

That’s pretty much my point and has been all season. Give him a full season of plate appearances at the minors to help him get back on track and see what’s there. I don’t see why my opinion would change based on what we’ve seen in the minors and what we’ve seen at the Major League level. I have confidence that he can be the center fielder after this season, but I haven’t had confidence in him being productive this season since spring training and there’s no reason for that to have changed

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 6:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

Well, then we both have good points, as my opinion has been the same…the whole season of minors didn’t work out, but the details will iron themselves out in time. As long as he gets a full season of plate appearances, I’m no longer too concerned about where they occur.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Jun 13, 2011 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

When it comes down to it they are both comparable players. Calling one or the other clearly better than the other just isn’t true. But the Braves have had more problems with scoring runs rather than preventing runs. I also think it is easier to help McLouth become closer to a league average fielder this season than it is to make Schafer close to a league average hitter. McLouth starts too close. He has range and is fast, but too many go over his head or past him due to his starting point – which he has credited in the past to why his fielding metrics are poor.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 6:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Meanwhile, here in reality, McLouth has not exactly been an offensive force any time very recently and even you admit that he has been a defensive liability. To suggest that he is somehow going to suddenly improve after all these years of playing CF in the MLs seems to be wishful thinking at its worst.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

It’s not about him improving, it’s about the coaches positioning him correctly.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Jun 13, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

that is, suddenly improve defensively, but I see you got that.

And, unfortunately, the coaches can’t throw the ball for him or do much for his consistently bad routes in chasing the ball off the bat.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

This 100%.

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 13, 2011 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems like he doesn’t really get motivated by playing in the minors, for whatever reason. If we send him back to AAA to watch his stats I don’t think he’s going to impress many people. He comes up to Atlanta and he runs like crazy and seems to leave it all on the field.

I’d rather leave him up as the starter for all of 2011 to get his at bats and see if he comes into ST 2012 with his power back.

I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali

How do I feel? Like f**king sucess - Jordan Schafer

by ATLandUNC on Jun 13, 2011 7:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Did you watch him in AAA?

If not, I’mm calling bullshii on this theory that he’s somehow trying harder in the majors. I bet he “ran like crazy” and left it “all on the field” for Gwinnett too in April and May.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 7:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

Give me the talk with Chipper changed him...

give me he’s gone to a more contact, slap focused approach for reasons to think he’s getting better. Give me his wrist is just getting closer to full strength. All of those are infinitely more believable than “he wasn’t motivated in AAA” crap.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

More than one person has mentioned it. He seemed almost bored at times in AAA.

I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali

How do I feel? Like f**king sucess - Jordan Schafer

by ATLandUNC on Jun 13, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Link please

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 8:17 PM EDT up reply actions  

So that's a no, you never saw him there

http://lawrenceville-ga.patch.com/articles/shafer-positive-in-aaa

Sounds like he was trying pretty hard according to the AAA manager, and that he knew he needed to put in work if he wanted to make it back.

So we’re back to the Chipper talk, getting more comfortable with the new approach, getting wrist strength back, etc as being a lot more reasonable than this subjective, and likely unfounded excuse you’ve created about some lack of effort in AAA.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 13, 2011 8:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

2B and HR tonight. Please put me in the wrist better camp.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

It seems like he doesn’t really get motivated by playing in the minors, for whatever reason

That has bullshit written all over.

by Braves24 on Jun 13, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Yeah, when I saw him he was busting his ass and working hard like always.

I wrote a novel, it's about baseball, you should buy it:
http://www.amazon.com/Four-C-B-Wilkins/dp/1449578454/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1257720610&sr=1-1
www.dropoutproductions.com

by cbwilk on Jun 14, 2011 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

But for some reason people who never saw him play wanna bring it up

as you say, kid has always, ALWAYS busted his butt working hard. The only ones claiming different are some of the more extreme McLouth haters here.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 14, 2011 7:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

Oh geeze

I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali

How do I feel? Like f**king sucess - Jordan Schafer

by ATLandUNC on Jun 14, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

You said above more than one person has mentioned it...

other than you, who has said anything of the sort? It’s an absolutely ludicrous assertion considering the player.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Jun 14, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions  

+1

This is getting out of hand

by Braves24 on Jun 14, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions  

I thought for a moment in the 9th inning that I had gone stark raving luntic mad bat shit insane, but then saw a replay and yep it was a HR.

by fandave on Jun 13, 2011 11:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is too easy to reduce him to stats

but really, we gotta look at his confidence levels.. He is a guy that thrives on confidence, obviously. Everyone is. But think about it, he has had a lot of confidence to recover. I know he sounded confident at the start of the season, but it was unproved, and insecure. Getting called up to the majors is a huge confidence boost. That is a reason for a guy like that to step it up at the majors.

by willlinn on Jun 13, 2011 11:43 PM EDT reply actions  

when his mind is right

he has proven the ability to play like a star against professional pitching.

by willlinn on Jun 13, 2011 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions  

when his mind is right he has proven the ability to play like a star against professional pitching.

QFT

I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali

How do I feel? Like f**king sucess - Jordan Schafer

by ATLandUNC on Jun 14, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions  

sabermetrics and the mental and psychological aspects of performance

seem to be at the absolute opposite poles to me. and that is my big problem with putting very much weight on saber analysis in forecasting likely future performance.

why would anyone ignor factoring in a player’s confidence level when it is obviously so crucial? look at Labron James disappearing in last 2 games of the NBA finals, as a recent example.

by fandave on Jun 14, 2011 8:37 AM EDT reply actions  

Jordan has done everything we can ask.

While we would like to see a little higher avg and OBP, jordan has done a very good job. He’s got on and when he has scored over half the time. He’s also played very well for us defensively.

As far as OBPS…. I could care less. Mark Reynolds fro MLB network had one of the most telling statements about that. It’s a power hitters stat, that it’s it. No pitcher worries about walking a power hitter because he’s not going anywhere if you get the next guy out. He’s going to be standing on 1B until someone else gets a hit. No pitcher wants to walk a speed guy, causes to many problems. So if you are a power guy, you should have a high OBPS number, because you are going to have a high Slg% and pitchers don’t care about walking you so your OBP will be missleading.

by SB75 on Jun 14, 2011 5:16 PM EDT reply actions  

I assume you meant OPS, but I’m not sure since you incorrectly typed it twice…

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Jun 16, 2011 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not sure he understands the statistic, frankly

…based on his description of both, he seems to be discussing both OBP characteristics and OPS characteristics, though the premise is completely off, frankly. OBP is an absolute leadoff hitter stat. Your best leadoff hitters aren’t usually the ones with extreme OBP’s, true, but there’s a level of OBP that is acceptable at the top of the order, and Jordan hasn’t achieved that yet. It he’s playing, he’s batting 8th to maximize utilization of his speed.

"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben

by biggentleben on Jun 17, 2011 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Dude has been Killin it huh?

4 and 5 hit nights.. stolen bases..walks.. I am impressed. I wanna see more of this.

by willlinn on Jun 18, 2011 12:56 PM EDT reply actions  

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