"Where The Walk Things Are" or "Jair Jurrjens And The Immaculate Control"
by gondeee on May 9, 2011 2:15 PM EDT
in Braves Quote For The Day
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PrintI am amazed by the Atlanta Braves pitching staff so far this season. There are a bunch of posts running around CAC and ESPN this morning about Atlanta's pitching fawesomeness, so why not one more. This morning on Twitter I noted that Jair Jurrjens leads the entire Major Leagues in ERA this year -- a spectacular 1.50.
It was then pointed out by David Lee and Ben Dudarino that the reason for this may be that he's not walking very many people. Thusly I went on a stat quest ... a "stquest." (I'm reaching.) It gets unprecedented form here on out...
Jurrjens has a 1.5 BB/9 (walks per nine innings) ratio this season. That is less than half his career average of 3.1 BB/9. In fact, it's less than half of what he's posted in any of his Major League seasons. He's been quite consistently walking people up to this point: 3.2 in 2007, 3.3 in 2008, 3.1 in 2009, and 3.2 in 2010.
In fact IN FACT, Jurrjens has never put up a BB/9 number this low in ANY MONTH of his Major League career. The closest he's come is a 2.28 BB/9 number in June of 2008. What is going on!
Perhaps this is just part of the evolution of a pitcher, that as he matures he just decides to throw more strikes, and he learns how to throw them better. For the first seven years of Greg Maddux's career he had a 2.8 BB/9 ratio, then all of a sudden (when he came to Atlanta) it dropped precipitously, and from then until the end of his career it was half of that number, a 1.4 BB/9 ratio.
Has Jurrjens fundamentally changed as a pitcher? Is this just a result of more pitch to contact style pitching? Will this be the new norm for him? I'm excited at the prospect that he could indeed be ascending to a new level of excellence in his pitching career. If so, it's going to be fun to watch.
If anyone names a band "Jair Jurrjens And The Immaculate Control," you have to give me backstage passes for life.
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If anyone names a band "Jair Jurrjens And The Immaculate Control"
I doubt they’ll get booked for very many gigs.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
And you...
…probably won’t want the backstage passes.
Oh dear.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Indeed!
The Braves pitching is so money. We just need everyone to stay healthy. It was really the injuries that killed on last year (on the mound and at the positions.)
- FOW
Watching the game last night, I noticed that Jurrjy really did get a lot of 3-ball counts. What he did do, however, was manage to get less-than-stellar contact on 3-1 and 3-2 pitches, which went a long way to cutting down the walks.
I’m curious about whether, despite his walk rate falling, what his percentage of 3-ball counts relative to batters faced is, and whether that has fallen as well. Obviously, if that percentage hasn’t fallen, then it’s likely a smaller push to a pitch-to-contact philosophy than it would be otherwise.
Defense turned a few key DPs for him as well…
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 2:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He has reached three balls in 14.8% of batters faced this year and had reached three balls in 18.2% of batters faced for his career. So it looks like in this five game sample to start the season he has avoided the 3-x count more than he has in the past. If it’s noise or a new trend we will have to see.
Jason Heyward wins at baseball.
by bbxxj on May 9, 2011 4:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He was good his rookie year
It was going to be a matter of time and good luck before he would settle in and become elite. Looking back at 2009, it was the beginning of Jair “The Immaculate One” Jurrjens. If it weren’t for the injuries in 2010, he would have been what he is now. All of this domination however is going to be a huge problem come arb time. Price is going to be insane.
I am not ready to call him an “elite” talent just yet.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Droping a sub 3 ERA at a young age for a season is kinda elite to me. He’s better than average pitcher.
by romone_braves91 on May 9, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes and know.
His sub 3 ERA season did involve significant luck. You can’t expect that to continue. I would say he is good, but not yet elite. His ERA this year is based in large part on his unsustainably high strand rate that is over 85%.
I wish I had a nickel
for every time I heard the word “unsustainable” last season in reference to Tim Hudson’s BABIP and GB numbers.
by Aaron Meier on May 9, 2011 2:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Look at his FIP.
Also, I never said he wasn’t a “better than average” pitcher, but there is a significant difference between “better than average” and “elite”.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Fair enough. My term for “elite” can be considered ace type pitcher for most. It is really an irrelevant argument. We can agree he is pitching great right now.
by romone_braves91 on May 9, 2011 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions
FIP is not an absolute judgment of a P...
especially one like JJ who relies more on control and pitching to contact than the beloved Ks.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Defense
Has had a lot to do with all the Braves pitchers low ERA. Gonzales continually amazes me.
Re this post, it was news to me. It just goes to show what every fan knows, there is a correlation between walks and runs. JJ is awesome!
Wait.....
You mean this isn’t an accurate assesment?:
Jurrjens is such crap. That the Phillies don’t have more than 1 run tonight is entirely their fault. They’ve bailed him out when he’s fallen behind practically every batter.
by FuquaManuel on May 8, 2011 8:31 PM CDT reply Star-gray Rec Story-flag Flag
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
by sddbaker on May 9, 2011 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 5 recs
Can we green that up? lol
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Long-range OGT commence!!
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
IMO...
that’s a perfectly understandable reaction if you see JJ on sporadic occassions, as Phillies fans do. If you only see him against your team, that would make sense that he’s lucky. But when you see him get that same “luck” game after game after game, you can sense the pattern watching him on a regular basis. At that point, it doesn’t seem quite like “luck” anymore.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Saying "he's lucky" might be perfectly understandable....
Saying he’s “such crap” is perfectly ridiculous.
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
There is a second factor behind Jurrjens' resurgence.
His groundball rate is much higher than it has been the past two seasons, back up over 50%, from a low of under 40% last year. Basically, he has turned walks and flyballs into groundballs, which really helps. He can’t maintain his current strand rate (over 85%) and his ERA, correspondingly, won’t stay this low, but if he can keep the walk and groundball rates where they are now, he should do well.
Pitch Count and IP
These numbers are, as expected, showing up in his total pitch count and longevity per game. JJ has always been a high pitch per inning pitcher but he is cutting down on that and it seems to be leading to deeper outings.
Here is what I found stated in avg PPI (pitch per inning) and average IP per start from 2008- present.
2008: 16.4 PPI/ 6 IP
2009: 15.4 PPI/ 6 1/3 IP
2010: 15.7 PPI/ just slightly more than 5 2/3 IP per start (5.8)
2011: 14.4 PPI/ just slightly less than 7 1/3 IP per start (7.2).
So with all factors combined GB %, less walks, etc, He is throwing less pitches per inning and going deeper into games, therefore easing the burden on the bullpen that he has been notorious for in the past. He has his first complete game also. Whatever it is he’s doing it’s working.
Of course, this is a similar outlier to Uggla’s career worst April. Let’s wait and see if it continues or regressses to the mean.
Looking at his PitchFx
you can tell that he’s changed his style of pitching since his first couple of years. He didn’t throw a two-seam fastball in his first few seasons, but last year he threw it 14.5% of the time, and this year he’s thrown it more than his four-seam fastball: 31.1% compared to 25.3%. Not only that, his fastball velocity has decreased by 91.8 mph in 2008 to 89.9 this year. I think all of this is indicative of a maturing pitcher who has learned to pitch to contact rather than the strikeout.
Decreased by 91.8 MPH?
That means he was throwing 181.7 MPH! No WONDER he’s so awesome!
by Aaron Meier on May 9, 2011 3:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Didn’t I read something at some point about how you can’t really rely on pitch f/x from year to year because classifications of various pitch types change?
by Ivan the Great on May 9, 2011 3:41 PM EDT up reply actions
btw,
love the enormous amount of content on the site, helps me get stuck in to baseball season now that the other sports are done
Trade bait?
JJ seems to be peaking. If he stays sub 2.00 ERA I’m sure he isn’t going anywhere. But if, and more plausibly, he’s in the neighborhood of 3.00 ERA by the All Star break…is he gone?
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 3:41 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Only if he can bring back one or more top positional players. Hate to see JJ go, but him being a Boras client seems like it could happen. That and moving Lowe is pretty much impossible.
Trading Lowe would involve eating some salary…but how much. I like JJ, but I like Teheran, Delgado, Beachy, and Medlen more as cost-effective options in the near future.
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 3:58 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Medlen is destined for the pen and while Beachy has been a great story, I would take JJ over him in a heartbeat. Beachy should be trade bait before JJ
You have to factor in our returns, too
Right now, I’d take JJ over Beachy in a heartbeat, too… but I might take what we could get for JJ over JJ, knowing that we’ve got guys to replace him.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Not sure why...
Beachy will take several years before he gets to the contractual milestones that will drive up his salary. The choice to me is between JJ and Hanson…both of those guys are destined for a pretty big payday.
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 4:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Beachy’s has thrown just 400 innings in his life. His upside is very good. I hope he goes nowhere!!!
by Braves12 on May 9, 2011 8:45 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, it’s not like the KK situation. If we make him available, he probably instantly becomes the best pitcher on the market. He should bring back almost anything we demand.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably places where we don’t have much organizational positional depth…
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 4:17 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
IMO, it'd be for a premium package...
I wouldn’t be opposed to moving him, but I’d want a very strong return similar to what teams have given up for elite starters in the past (multiple high level prospects, like what was given for Greinke, Haren to Arizona, Colon to Montreal, Bedard to Seattle, Peavy to Chicago, etc). If we’re going to market and push a SP for trade (aside from the obvious Kenshin Kawakami dilemma), it’d have to be Lowe and his salary. As he pitches well, you push him to no end hoping someone takes that obligation salary wise off your hands. And if the team says no thanks, but how about Jair, you ask for the moon.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
yea
this is what i was trying to ask/figure out
If you're asking positionally...
SP-We are loaded, but you could have said the same when we pulled in Vizcaino for Vazquez. Basically if there’s a dynamite arm you like and can get, you go for it. But this isn’t a huge need, more a luxury if we can get it.
RP-Again, with Kimbrel and Venters we’re loaded pretty well for the future, especially if some of the extremely talented starters fail in a rotation and move to the bullpen. But if you can get a big timer, it’s a nice luxury item to add.
C-McCann and Ross are solid, but in the minors we have holes. Boscan and Sucre are the closest to ready, but are defensive backups at best. Bethancourt is the headliner, but he’s struggling and very far away. It’s not a big need, but resolidifying the depth here in the minors wouldn’t hurt.
1B-Freeman seems to have that on lock for the next 5-10+ years, so not a big need, but we don’t have any behind him should he falter either, so like SP or C, it’s not a need, but would be a luxury item that it wouldn’t hurt to add to.
2B-Uggla is signed long term, although he may not be a 2B long term. Prado can fill in here. Maybe Myke Jones or Pastornicky. I’m not worried about this, although if a dynamite leadoff man was available, and they played 2B, we need that big time for the lineup and Uggla could go to 3rd/LF same as Prado. I don’t think this is much of a need spot, but it’s certainly more of a need than any of the positions mentioned above (SP, RP, C, and 1B).
SS-The first true need spot. Gonzalez is solid, but leaves a lot to be diesred with the bat and is a pending free agent. Pastornicky may be ready, or he may be a utility man at best. Simmons has the glove, but a suspect bat. Same with Hicks. Diory isn’t really good enough at either. Salcedo and Lipka are too far off and may not be good enough defensively to stick at SS. So this is a clear need if you can add a sure thing long term like Drew, Castro, Andrus, among others.
3B-Chipper only has so much left in the tank, but with Uggla and Prado around, it’s not a huge need. Salcedo probably ends up here, so the future is solid, but he’s no sure thing and could end up elsewhere (SS, 1B, LF?). With Chipper’s pending retirement, and the ability of Uggla and Prado to work at other spots, if you can add a Longoria or Zimmerman, you do it and don’t think twice. We could really use a 3B like them, but of course, so could everyone but Washington and Tampa.
LF-If we can find a big time bat, especially RH, you get them. A definite need even though Prado has done well defensively, since he can move to 2B or 3B. Not much in the system either, so add what you can here. Although it’s rare someone defensively profiles as a LF, and is usually a bat that wasn’t good enough defensively for elsewhere (3B, RF, etc).
CF-McLouth is a pending FA and can be improved upon. Schafer is about all we have in the system, and he’s a maybe/maybe not. Lipka, but he’s a SS right now, and Myke Jones is still learning the job and is also a maybe/maybe not. So if we can find a good one, we need them and should get them. Even if it’s one who’s suspect defensively like a Matt Kemp, since you can slide them into LF as a below average CF is probably an above average LF defensively.
RF-Heyward obviously, but there is not much else in the system, and if you can play RF, you can play LF. So if we can add a big timer here, you do it and stick them in LF.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
SS
I know Gonzo isn’t a very good hitter but the way he plays defense I wouldn’t mind having him for another one or two years.
Same here...
especially with an upgrade in CF and if Chipper can keep churning so his poor obp isn’t a big deal in the 8 hole. But if you’re looking at places to upgrade the roster, SS and CF are probably the first two places you’d look to do so.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
absolutely
Just saying that we might have more time to find/develop a SS than we think with Gonzo in the picture
Colon to Montreal
I’d take Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips and Grady Sizemore for JJ any day!
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn
Those turned out well...
but while you can’t guarantee the prospects you get pan out like those did, that’s my model, multiple players with the upside of an All Star.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Eventually one of Hanson and JJ will have to be traded.
I think they’re of equivalent value, but teams value Hanson more, so I’d trade Hanson.
With more years under club control...
better “stuff” in terms of Ks, but the club control thing where JJ is entering his last year of arb, but Hanson still has one year at the minimum and 3 years of arb, means Hanson has more value than JJ.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Why?
Why do they “have to” trade them?
"It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone." A. Bartlett Giamatti
right
i guess im asking,
what we’d be asking for
what we’d be able to get
who is available?
We’d probably ask for depth or a positional player to help us immediately (depending on Chipper’s health and McLouth’s production, it could be a 3B, LF or CF).
We should be able to get anything we wanted
Not sure. I thought about Sizemore early on, but the way Cleveland is playing, that’s not gonna happen. Maybe someone from Pitt or LA.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Realistically available?
Only Wren and GMs could answer that question.
But IMO, if you can get an impact bat, we need that enough you pull the trigger. We don’t really have a hole in the lineup barring an injury or someone’s production falling off, but CF or SS could upgrade from their current options. We don’t have many glaring needs, even in the system as players like Pastornicky and Andrelton Simmons continue to show out, so imo, you let someone wow you for Jurrjens and don’t go pursuing any particular players. Cherry pick guys you like and feel can have a big impact, and if the trading organization doesn’t want to part with those guys, then no deal.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on May 9, 2011 4:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed 100%
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
But personally, I wouldn't pursue trading Jurrjens...
kid has been nothing but money since day 1. When healthy (so take out the portions of last year where his knee/arm was a bother) and he’s been lights out. As a rookie, not this good but he was strong, and our second best pitcher behind Hudson. Year 2, people say was luck induced but his numbers were better than great, and he was again our second best starter behind a Cy Young caliber Vazquez. Last year was injury plagued, but the short stretch where he was healthy, it showed as he carved up lineups. Now he’s healthy again, and we see him back to his “lucky” year 2 status. It’s beginning to look like he’s a stud when healthy, and if he can stay healthy the rest of this year who knows how high his value goes for the winter (perhaps bringing in a potential long term answer at CF, like McCutcheon or Rasmus, or at SS, like Drew).
So I keep Jurrjens if I’m Wren, but go on a strong push to see if someone will take Lowe. Hudson, Hanson, and Jurrjens is a helluva 1-2-3. That let’s Minor, Beachy, Teheran, and others fill the 4/5 spots, and you can recoup the savings off Lowe’s deal not just next year for free agents, but also this year in signing overslot draft picks in later rounds, or on big time international talents, or both.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I need to see this version of Jair stabilize first. The him of the past never sold me on being more than a solid middle of the rotation guy. If he can keep his walks down as he has, then I will be of this opinion.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
My thoughts exactly.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Dude, really?
If you can come on here and claim with a straight face that Kenshin Kawakami is a legit #3, then Jair Jurrjens has to be at least a #2 if not a #1 in comparison.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I think he’s probably a #2, which fits in line with what I think of KK exactly.
KK would be a 3 or 4 on the majority of rotations in baseball – only the very best of rotations would not have room for him – the Braves being a perfect example. He would probably even be on the Phillies rotation behind the “big 4”.
Jurrjens has been our 3/4 pretty much his entire time here. KK was our 5. If I believe KK is a 3, then JJ is a 2 – still not elite, but above average for sure.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 9:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Go look at 2008 and 2009 again...
he was not “our 3/4”, but our clear #2.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Hanson would be in front of him in 09 as well as Vaz. The argument could be made that KK was his equal in 09. Huddy was definitely better in 08, but the rest of that rotation was just terrible, so him being the “#2” isn’t saying a whole lot. He was good, but nothing exceptional. He had a WHIP of 1.37 that year. That’s Dice-K territory.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Poke holes all you want...
but he was a stopper in 09. Metrics and rate stats be damned. The guy took the hill every turn in 09, and gave us a chance to win. He was better than KK that year or you’re just being delusional. Hanson was as strong, but I give JJ the nod since he did it all year, instead of half the year like Hanson.
There’s no point having this conversation with you if you’re just going to deny reality, saying he missed turns in 08 and 09 when he only missed one combined over two years, and he did so pitching extremely well and as easily arguably our second best starter both years. If you want to be stubborn and wrong on this too, so be it. Have a good night sir.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
So, evidence be damned, you are right.
Cool.
/discussion.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That sums up your side of this pretty nice, yes...
evidence be damned in your claims of him missing turns in 08 and 09. Direct quotes of…
He’s also been skipped a couple of times in 08 and 09, IIRC.
In response to being told your recollection was incorrect, you state that…
He only had 4 starts in July in 2009 (or 2008, I’m not spending the 20 seconds to look again).
I never said he was injury prone before last year. I said he had missed some games
Use of the plural “games” is exactly as you say, “evidence be damned”, as he only missed a single game over those two years.
And somehow in the same post, you contradict yourself saying…
Jurrjens has been our 3/4 pretty much his entire time here.
After saying, “he’s probably a #2”. But hey, “evidence be damned” as his overall stats show he was our second best pitcher in 2 of his 3 seasons, and if you combine 08 and 09, he was our most valuable arm.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Lol.
You just love to try to make me look like a fool by taking things out of context and running with them.
It was June not July where he missed a start. Got me there. He still was skipped in the rotation for whatever reason.
He probably IS a #2 pitcher. But we have the best pitching staff in baseball so far, and he is not OUR #2. He never has been our #2 except MAYBE in 2008 when our rotation consisted of Jorge Campillo, Tim Hudson, Jo-Jo Reyes, Mike Hampton and Charlie Morton – 2 of those guys aren’t even in baseball anymore. I would hope that he could have been the #2 on that staff. Sadly, he wasn’t even the clear-cut #2 as Jorge Campillo put up similar/better numbers than JJ did that season.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions
You try to make me look the same...
I just don’t give the ammo to make those attempts successful like you give.
And you love to pick an insignificant mistake as a defense while ignoring the much larger mistakes of Jurrjens missing multiple starts (he didn’t) in 08 and 09, or not being our second best starter (he was) in those seasons.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
No. Believe it or not, I do not have a personal mission to make you look stupid on the internet.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Nor do I...
you just seem to do it on your own often, and take offense when I point out your mistakes.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
if you simply pointed out my mistakes, that would be fine.
You surely don’t believe that’s all you so innocently do, do you?
My mistake in this thread was that JJ missed 1 game in 08/09 – not 2 or 3 as I had mistakenly thought.
You happy now? If you’d like, you could bring up the fact that I thought Diaz would have made a good leadoff hitter…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Have you noticed how you bring that Diaz thing up, not me?
and if you hadn’t given that smart ass response of …
“He only had 4 starts in July in 2009 (or 2008, I’m not spending the 20 seconds to look again).”
And instead said, as you do now, oops, I recalled incorrect and he only missed one, that wouldn’t have spiralled like it did.
Nor would this thread spiral like it has without your wishy -washy, he’s a 3/4 and as good as KK nonsense above after I mention how if you consider KK a 3, he’s a 1 or 2, and has stably produced in 2 of his 3 seasons (the healthy 2 of 3 seasons) when you respond “my thoughts exactly” to Duronio saying he’s been middle of the rotation and needs to stabilize.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Nothing about that is “wishy-washy”
See, you try to take something and run with it, when it clearly isn’t true or even close to what I was saying.
Like I said before, I’m done with the discussion.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Because despite being worse in every statistical category...
The argument could be made that KK was his equal in 09.
But I guess you never said that huh?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Not to insert myself into a wonderful fued
but that was pretty entertaining to read… I feel like I was reading something from Sybil… I think you’re both saying the same thing just not wanting to agree that you agree… quite amusing..
by Klemson Krash on May 10, 2011 3:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Seriously?
Tim Hudson was clearly better and Jorge Campillo was roughly JJ’s equal in 08.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Roughly, meaning
not as good but close enough for me since I’m too (multiple choice a) stubborn, b) arrogant, c) stupid) to admit I wrong.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
This is just hilarious. You accuse me of not being able to admit I am wrong in a thread that I admit I am wrong…
And no, roughly meaning that JJ had some stats in which he was better and Jorge had stats at which he was better. They both pitched to roughly (meaning it’s not clear) the same level in 08.
JJ was not “clearly” better than Jorge, as the claim was made.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
As a possible #1? I'd agree...
but if we’re talking about just a solid, front half of the rotation caliber starter, imo, he’s produced at that level since his first start for the club.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And "stabilize"?
he took all but one turn in 2008, and was our second best starter that year behind a strong Hudson. He took every turn in 2009, and was our second best starter behind a strong Vazquez. He was hurt most of last year, but in the small stretch of games mid season where he finally got healthy, he was pretty strong. He’s been healthy this year, and pitched like a front of the rotation guy. The man has been pretty stable when healthy producing as one of our top 2 pitchers, at a time when our #1 means you’re pretty damn good. I don’t know what more people need to see from the guy to see that he’s a legit top 3 starter and probably a solid #2.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
IMO, He has anchored the rotation since we acquired him and still doesn’t recieve the credit he deserves.
That is vastly overrating him.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I’ll jump in… because since Kevin Towers would be involved, this will never happen.
The DBacks need pitching. The impact bat that makes sense for us would be Justin Upton. No need to even start a conversation unless he’s made available. I bet that’s the kind of level we’re talking about here: pretty much ‘blockbuster’ sized.
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
I’d rather shoot for Stephen Drew
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Really want to follow through on that bet, eh?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Haha.
Ya know, it would make for quite a story around here.
It’s the same reason I would have sex with Betty White – because I would have had sex with Betty White! lol
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Rasmus
simply put, if I’m going to move JJ now, I want either multiple premium prospects (see the above comparable trades to me—Haren to Arizona, Peavy to Chicago, Colon to Montreal, Bedard to Seattle, or Greinke to Milwaukee), or a long term solution for SS (Stephen Drew, Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus are the ones I’d seek) or in the OF(Rasmus, McCutcheon, Carlos Gonzalez, Granderson, Kemp, Justin Upton, Tabata, etc)
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Yup. And the interesting thing about Rasmus being at the top of your list is that the Cards really need the pitching a lot more than offense right now, so that kinda fits…. except for the paranoia over maybe losing Prince Albert.
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
What do you think of...
Mitch Moreland of the Rangers. The Rangers are currently struggling because some of their starters are not getting the job done. Moreland looks like he’ll be a spare part if they can get Hamilton and Cruz healthy.
I was casually browsing Center Fielders last night
and happened upon Denard Span. I think that he’d be a pretty good fit for the Braves, and we could afford to give up some minor league pitching to Minnesota.
I like the Span idea
Leadoff hitter, career line .289 / .366 / .390 / 192 BB / 236 K
Contract $1M this year, then 3M, 4.75M, 6.5M, then a $9M option for 2015 with a 0.5M buyout
Would Beachy and Hoover be too much, enough or not enough? I have no clue. Twins are 12-20, 28th in era, 29th in whip and 29th in baa. They need some pitching!
"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G
I don’t think Span is enough of a difference maker to give up someone performing the way Beachy and JJ are. There would need to be another piece coming our way at the very least, and it would need to be a significant one.
"Baseball is a game where a curve is an optical illusion, a screwball can be a pitch or a person, stealing is legal and you can spit anywhere you like except in the umpire's eye or on the ball." -Jim Murray
They would never take on that much salary...
unless the AAA P = Teheran.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Before this year, JJ has been Houdini-like. The better control hopefully is here to stay. JJ is not someone who piles up the Ks, but he is young enough that he could be raising his game to the next level. The missed time last year might be a blessing.
by LEastCoastBears on May 9, 2011 4:22 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
For me, the biggest thing is his health. He’s been DL’d several times now. I’m sure that will be the biggest knock against him in any open market or trade negotiations.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He’s missed 3 games this year and has missed time before too.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions
has missed time before too
When was that? Last year was the only time he missed significant time and it seems like he has recovered
He missed all of May and all but June 30 of 2010. He missed 3 games earlier this year. He missed games down the stretch last season and did not pitch in the post-season. He’s also been skipped a couple of times in 08 and 09, IIRC.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Why recall when you can check....
188 in 08, then 215 innings in 09. His baseball-reference game log for 2009 has him taking what appears to be every scheduled turn (maybe an extra day’s rest in early September, otherwise he started every 4th or 5th game). In 2008, he appears to skip a turn in early June, and that’s it. So from the game logs (08 here, and 09 here), he was skipped just one time combined in 08 and 09.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
He only had 4 starts in July in 2009 (or 2008, I’m not spending the 20 seconds to look again).
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Then don't look...
I really don’t care if you want to stick your head in the sand and be wrong. # of starts in a single July (where there’d be a built in gap for the All Star break nitwit) is a stupid argument from your end to claim he’s been injury prone before last year. His game logs tell the story just fine, and it’s two full seasons with only a single missed turn.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I never said he was injury prone before last year. I said he had missed some games. He is NOW considered injury prone, since he was DL’d twice last season and was on the DL to start this season.
As a side note, your ad hominem attacks and blatant disrespect are getting old.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I said he had missed some games.
Try one more time. He missed “game” singular. Only one in two years. Hopefully you can get that right from now on.
But “He only had 4 starts in July in 2009 (or 2008”. If only you weren’t so lazy as to “not spending the 20 seconds to look again”. If you had, you’d see 6 starts in July of 09 and 5 in 08. The game # for the Braves in 09 is 77, 82, 87, 90, 95, 100, or he’s taking the ball every fifth game, with the short span (87-90) representing the All Star break. In 2008, it’s games #86, 91, 97, 102, and 107. If you look at the dates, the only gap is for the All Star break.
You’re “4 start” month is the one I mentioned where he missed a single turn in early June of 2008.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
June then. Thanks for clarifying that.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
His single missed turn...
but he missed “games” huh? Glad I could clarify that for ya.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
He didn’t pitch down the stretch and in the post-season because he was not fully healthy. He missed two games this year because the Braves were playing it safe and put him on the 15 DL, which is the right thing to do this earlier in the season. In 2008, he made 31 starts. In 2009, he made 34 starts. Once again besides last year, when did he miss significant time?
3 games this year…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 9:54 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
You still haven’t answered my question. Whether he missed two games or three games this year, the Braves sent him on the DL because they were being precautious. They didn’t want his injury to linger on so they put him on the DL. Last time. Besides last year, when did he miss significant time?
I never said he did, so you are trying to prove a point that doesn’t exist.
Yes or no, he was DL’d twice last season?
Yes or no, he was on the DL this season?
Yes or no, other GMs would try to use that as fodder that they should not give as much up for him as we think we should receive?
That’s my only point.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes or no...
he missed “games” plural in 2008 and 2009?
he pitched better than anyone else we had in 2008 AND 2009 combined?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Hey, way to keep picking on the most insignificant part of my post. The horse isn’t dead yet…keep whacking away!
And no, he was not better than anyone else we had in 08 and 09.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
So you were wrong...
and you recalled incorrectly about him missing multiple turns in 08 and 09? Yes or no?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Yes. He missed 1 game. Not more than 1 as I was thinking. Good lord, are you happy?
That wasn’t the point of my post – hence the “least significant” part.
And no, he was not the 2nd best pitcher on the team in 09, and maybe not even in 08.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
By the way – see how easy it is to admit when you are wrong? You should try it sometime.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Really? Look for yourself.
And no, he was not the 2nd best pitcher on the team in 09, and maybe not even in 08.
I have already looked at that. Hudson was clearly better in 08, and Campillo may have been – it’s close between JJ and Jorge that season.
In 2009, Vazquez and Hanson were both clearly better and Kawakami may or may not have been. I think JJ has the nod over KK, but the point remains that the argument could be made.
JJ has never “CLEARLY” been our 2nd best pitcher.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
Hudson was “CLEARLY” better in 2008? Hanson was"CLEARLY" better in 2009?
Man, you obviously didn’t READ then. I’m done…
Yes and Yes.
If I’m missing your point, can you please tell me what it is?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:47 PM EDT up reply actions
lol
Go back and look at the stats posted above. And this time read, intrepret, analyze, compare, and contrast them. If you still have the same thoughts, then I have no clue what I’m talking about and this conservation has been a complete waste of your time. If that’s the case, I’m very sorry.
The stats posted above support what I am saying, not you…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, really. In 2008, Tim Hudson was clearly better than JJ and Campillo was equal to him. JJ was not the best pitcher on that staff, nor was he “clearly” the 2nd best pitcher that season.
In 2009, Javy Vazquez was clearly better as was Tommy Hanson. Again, JJ was not the best pitcher, nor was he the 2nd best pitcher on the 2009 staff.
He was not the best or 2nd best pitcher in 2009, and he was not the best in 2008, and arguably, not the 2nd best in 2008.
How can you possibly see differently?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
How?
In 2008, I agree on Hudson being clearly better. He missed time due to TJ, but when pitching he was better. I’ll grant you Campillo produced as well as JJ when on the mound, but JJ doing so in significantly more innings means they weren’t “equal” to me. So I’ll agree, he wasn’t “clearly” the 2nd best pitcher, although I think the argument is pretty strong that he was.
In 09, again, Vazquez being “clearly better” is a pretty easy argument. But while Hanson had better rate stats, he also spent the first two months in AAA while Jurrjens was taking every scheduled turn, and producing great. His rate stats may show a bit of luck, but the end result speaks for itself, and it says JJ was as good as Hanson but in more innings, which to me means better.
And this “best” pitcher stuff, no one, or at least I sure haven’t, said he was the best in any given year. What I did say was that he was the best over those years combined, and I feel pretty safe in that statement. The only pitchers clearly better in either year missed significant stretches of one or more (Hudson out a year for TJ, Vazquez and Hanson not even on the roster for a season and season + 2 months). So that’s where Jurrjens was our “best” pitcher over 2008 AND 2009, as in combined, not in either year or both years individually.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
His Ranks Among the Other Starters
2008:
IP – 1st
ERA – 2nd
Runs – 8th
Earned Runs – 8th
HR Allowed – 6th
ERA+ – 2nd
WHIP – 3rd
H/9 – 2nd
HR/9 – 1st
BB/9 – 5th
K/9 – 1st
K:BB – 3rd
2009
IP – 2nd
ERA – 1st
Runs – 2nd
Earned Runs – 2nd
HR Allowed – 3rd
ERA+ – 1st
WHIP – 2nd
H/9 – 3rd
HR/9 – 1st
BB/9 – 3rd
K/9 – 3rd
K:BB – 3rd
For the counting stats, I didn’t include those guys with fewer than 20 starts.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Runs, HR Allowed, and Earned Runs are influenced by IP
and imo are not needed in your list of stats.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I know, which is why I included the IPs, so we could see the whole picture.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't get it though...
you’ve got ERA, so what’s the point of including ER? You have HR/9, so why the need for HR? But you don’t include Hits, just having H/9. Same with BB/9 instead of it and BBs, K/9 instead of it and Ks. Why include both for some but not the others?
You don’t have SB allowed, which could add to the “whole picture”. You don’t have FIP, xFIP, SIERRA, or any other advanced stats which could help that picture. Your explanation creates more questions than it answered.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Well, if I included FIP it would make JJ look worse, since he’s one of those pitchers that has consistently out-produced his FIP.
I mean, I could have included other things, but didn’t feel like copying the entire baseballreference.com page.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever...
I just don’t get why you include HR but not H, or Runs and Earned Runs, but not BB or K, letting rate stats stand for one, but not another. It doesn’t matter.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Campillo isn’t far behind, but I’ll respectfully disagree and say JJ was our #2 that year.
As for “Kawakami may or may not have been” in 09, are you serious? With an ERA over a run worse, in almost 60 fewer innings, with a higher WHIP (1.21 to 1.34), one more hit/9, a 50% higher HR/9, a lower K/9 and a higher BB/9. Seriously, so aside from being worse in every stat, he “may or may not have been” better?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
For me, the biggest thing is his health.
He missed all of May and all but June 30 of 2010. He missed 3 games earlier this year. He missed games down the stretch last season and did not pitch in the post-season. He’s also been skipped a couple of times in 08 and 09, IIRC.
What are you trying to explain then? Sounds like you are explaining the time he missed….
Yes or no, he was on the DL this season?
Yes because the Braves were being precautious. That’s the only reason why he was on the DL…..
My god, is this really that hard? I’ll repost what I have already posted, since you didn’t get it the first time:
I never said he did, so you are trying to prove a point that doesn’t exist.
Yes or no, he was DL’d twice last season?
Yes or no, he was on the DL this season?
Yes or no, other GMs would try to use that as fodder that they should not give as much up for him as we think we should receive?
That’s my only point.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 9:15 PM CDT up reply actions
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions
?
I got what you said the first time, but it seems to me you aren’t understanding what I’m saying.
You are saying that he isn’t injury prone.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions
good job.....
And I explained to why he isn’t.
Except he’s now been on the DL 3 times in the last season and change.
Whether he truly is or isn’t injury prone is irrelevant. Other GMs are going to try to say that he is and lower his trade value.
Do you not agree?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions
He has been on the DL three times, but one time was precautious reasons not because he was hurt. And your question doesn’t make sense, but it could be just me.
I don’t know how to make it any clearer. The question makes perfect sense.
If we are trying to trade Jurrjens, and we are asking for a return of what we think he’s worth (immediate top talent for the big-league club, or a plethora of top prospects) other teams and GMs are going to balk at that and try to say that he is not worth what we think he is, because he was on the DL 3 times in a little over a season.
Is that any more clear?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
And we counter with his age...
his success when healthy, and the fact that of those 3 times, none were the type of injury that would imply long term detriment or debilitating damage to his arm.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
To which the other GMs would say “Oh, ok. Well, in that case, take whoever you want, and we’ll even throw in our top 3 prospects.”
Our counter doesn’t matter. The fact is that being DL’d 3 times in the last year is going to hurt his value.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
In your mind obviously...
neither of us can say what other GMs will or won’t do. Of course, you’re the only one claiming what they will or won’t do/say, which is something trades like Uggla for Infante/Dunn should tell you is a futile claim.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
The
Uggla trade should not be the basis for any argument. It was a “right team, right time” type of deal. The Marlins were, in their minds, rebuilding, so they were dumping a guy who was gonna fight for more money, to get a great utility player and a good 7th inning guy.
The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault. -Ty Cobb
I think it's excellent basis for the argument that...
outsiders like us, trying to say what is and isn’t a “realistic”, “acceptable” or any other term for describing a trade as something an MLB GM might or would accept, is futile. That’s a trade everyone hear would have laughed off as unrealistic, but it was quite real indeed.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And why do you always have to come back with some stupid, gross exaggeration...
To which the other GMs would say "Oh, ok. Well, in that case, take whoever you want, and we’ll even throw in our top 3 prospects."
Cause that’s certainly an accurate description of what we have said?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
One last thing...
how do we go from my description of his value getting “Agreed 100%” as your complete post above at 4:39, to this nonsense, and you now claiming, as best I can tell, that I’m overvaluing him?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Recall, however, that there were multiple games
in the past year or two in which JJ would have a “Walk Flurry” — seemingly getting squeezed by the umps, and then walking 2-3 in a row while seemingly trying to make the Perfect Pitch. I can’t quantify this, but for sure — he has avoided any such hassles thus far this year. With obvious results.
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
I wish people would put away the FIP numbers
And just admit that Jair has made it to the top tier of pitching.
People have this misconception that you have to have ridiculous K numbers to be elite. You don’t. The job of a starting pitcher is to not allow runs to score. Jair does that as well as anyone. Simple as that. Top 5 in ERA in 2009. Leading the league in 2011. He was close to elite in 2009, but with his improved control he is there now. FIP and xFIP are simply there to provide extra perspective on traditional stats, not to constantly pigeon hole pitchers as “getting lucky” and having “unsustainable success”.
Jair is one of the best pitchers in the NL. Lets acknowledge him as such.
I’ve got Jack Johnson and Tom O’Leary waiting for ya, right here
by ATLandUNC on May 9, 2011 7:54 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I love FIP, but there are definitely exceptions. Some pitchers, mostly those who have a legitimate ability to induce ground balls, are better than their FIP would suggest. Hudson was a perfect case of this last year. He led the league in GB% and had an ERA of 2.83 while his FIP was 4.09. He may have benefited from luck to a degree, but not so much that FIP accurately measures his performance last year.
I don’t think FIP matters in the case of Jair Jurrjens, though. His career ERA is 3.39 while his FIP is 3.77. That may not be “elite”, but he’s a heck of a pitcher. Whether people think his 2009 ERA or his success so far this season is based on luck or not, he’s a highly respected pitcher and any team with a shortage of starting pitching would be thrilled if he were on their roster.
These labels like “elite” or “ace” are not important. All that matters are the results. I don’t think it’s wrong to believe that Jurrjens has proven by now that he’s always going to produce at a very high level. If Jurrjens stays in Atlanta, we’re going to benefit greatly from his presence in our rotation. If he’s traded at some point, we’re going to get a very nice return for him.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
He had one season in which he had an ERA better than his FIP. He was almost the same exact pitcher he was the season previous, when he was a pretty solid pitcher but not on the same level of a Tommy Hanson, for instance. He is pitching much differently this year, let’s not confuse them for the same pitcher.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
Also keep in mind that he is only 25 years old. He gave us 3.8 WAR at the age of 23. We should expect nothing less than for him to improve with age. I’m very excited to see what kind of numbers he ends up with this year. In a couple months, we could be talking about an All Star, and I know it’s very early, but based on his age, his past performance and his performance so far this season, we could be looking at a Cy Young candidate. His low strikeout rate will probably prevent from winning the award, but he may receive some votes nonetheless.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
if all goes according
to peoples expectations,
in 2012, we could have a better rotation than, wait for it… the 90s braves.
I just got chills.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions
OT but since theres no game tonight ill ask here.
This trade is going down:
Rasmus for Utley.
Who gets the better end of this deal overall?
The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault. -Ty Cobb
Rasmus is the better option going forward.
Utley is too much of an injury risk and too old at this point.
If Utley is 100% healthy he is the better option. I just don’t think he will ever be 100% for very long, if ever again.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions
What good are 3 athletic OFers...
in a ballpark that small though? It seems any former AL DH could play LF…
by TBuzz on May 9, 2011 11:24 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I should have
stated that this is in a fantasy league. Im dominating it so far and Rasmus has been stuck on my bench doing very little.
The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault. -Ty Cobb
Then trade for a quality SP, not another position player.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 9, 2011 11:38 PM EDT up reply actions
The deal is done.
I was just seeing what everyone else thought.
The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault. -Ty Cobb
FINALLY!!!
A post that treats JJ like the champ that he is. I was shocked he slid so much in the favorite Braves poll. He is not just an elite pitcher when healthy, he speaks at least three languages and is crazy likeable and handsome.
Not to offend delicate sensibilities...
But really, why doesn’t everyone love this kid? He always gives his best, and when his stuff isn’t good, he still competes. What more would it take to make him a fan favorite?
Really?
I hoped that wasn’t true, but his lack of K’s might make him more reasonably priced. I really hope they sign him to a fair contract, because he is my fav
Unfortunately, Boras clients (JD Drew, Teixiera, Werth to name a few) tend to always test free agency and usually end up taking more money elsewhere. Would make more sense to trade him at the height of his value.
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Not to say...
he isn’t a popular player…but a number of factors make him more expendable to the average Braves fan versus other pitchers. (IMHO)
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:31 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yeah, but these days, Hanson would cost more
I know he hasn’t earned it yet, but JJ pitches above the the neck at a HOF level.
Which begs the question...
has JJ reached his ceiling? Hanson has better stuff, and has shown the ability to dominate.
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:41 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
JJ is my favorite player
I just remember how fun it was to see Glavine pitch out of trouble, and JJ is that cool under pressure. I know that I’m being redundant, but can anyone justify why they would prefer another Brave on the mound?
Are you kidding me? HOF-level???
Guys, I love JJ, but let’s rein this in a bit, ok?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:44 AM EDT up reply actions
I was stating why JJ is more expendable…byw
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:46 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I wasn’t replying to you…what does byw mean?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:47 AM EDT up reply actions
It means btw when you aren’t on an iPhone :)
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
hahahah.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Is it too late for you to join Seal Team Six?
Lots of terrorists wouldn’t stand a chance with all the aggression Sanchez tends to bring out haha…
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:52 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I’m not Navy, but I am applying for AF Special Tactics as soon as my knee heals up and I’m back in running shape! :)
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
He isn’t military, and I’m the O. lol
:)
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Just meant
That he pitches much smarter than other people his age. But if the rest of his career involves him being as slippery as Glavine, then his ability above the neck is HOF level
Come on, man.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Really?
I am not claiming his stuff is elite. I just mean that when the s-hit hits the fan, he doesn’t just cave like the other Radar Gun Studs
With a career WHIP of 1.288…he wins because the offense scores runs.
He isn’t really a shut-down pitcher.
His B-R.com player comparisons are:
Yovani Gallardo (976)
Shaun Marcum (972)
Dick Woodson (968)
Herman Pillette (967)
Mark Prior (966)
Anibal Sanchez (965)
Monty Stratton (963)
Mickey Hughes (962)
Arlie Pond (962)
Ray Starr (960)
Through 24:
Steve Busby (983)
Juan Marichal (979) *
Joel Pineiro (977)
Yovani Gallardo (976)
Art Mahaffey (973)
Bill Stafford (973)
Gary Gentry (971)
Orval Grove (970)
Bill Monbouquette (969)
Scott Sanderson (968)
He’s been very good, but HOF level is a bit premature.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn't a high whip support the person's argument
that he’s good at getting out of trouble since he has a low ERA to go with that WHIP? I think the man has a good point on that issue, which is why JJ seems to outproduce his peripherals.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I’ve never heard “gives up a lot of hits and walks” as support for a pitcher being good…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
So glad you could skew what I said so eloquently incorrect
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on May 10, 2011 10:45 AM EDT up reply actions
That’s fair. Saying he’s pitching at a HOF level isn’t.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions
Not pitching at that level
But thinking at that level. He seems smarter than Huddy and he is just a kid
I like JJ...
he’s economical as well and eats up lots of innings when he’s healthy (no comments Justin)…you wonder if his mental approach, which is usually the last thing to develop, means he’s hit his ceiling…
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 1:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
He’s never sustained that level of performance. The other night he got hit quite a bit…2 DPs certainly helped get him out of jams. He’s missed 15-20 starts the last 2 years. He’s pitching out of his mind right now…let’s wait and see at the AS break.
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 1:09 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Words of wisdom.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 10, 2011 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions
He's had one year of injury
he’s as “injury prone” as Julio Teheran appears to be.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I know we all have our favorite players, but I subscribe to the Frank Wren philosophy of not falling in love with a team’s players if there is a chance to improve your organization. Time will tell if JJ is worth keeping…
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 1:19 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sorry, but...
DIPS says otherwise. They were basically by accident, so far as it is possible to know such things.
But you can steadily improve control thanks to that mental approach...
it’s taking it to the extreme, but see Maddux. His stuff had a higher ceiling than it should have because of his head, which improved his control.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Above the neck...
not that he’s Hall of Fame level as a pitcher on the whole, but intelligence wise, he is a pretty smart pitcher.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I'm sold
been a fan since he first came here, if only cause of the Curacao connection. But he’s certainly proved worthy of my fandom over the years. Love me some JJ.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
C'mon guys
Be sensible. If we trade him, my name will lose all substantial value. Think about that while you feed your egos rosterbating.
The base paths belonged to me, the runner. The rules gave me the right. I always went into a bag full speed, feet first. I had sharp spikes on my shoes. If the baseman stood where he had no business to be and got hurt, that was his fault. -Ty Cobb
by Tim Goad on May 10, 2011 12:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
You might consider just simply using a second handle :)
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 12:59 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh…and I own the rights to “McLouth will rise again”
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 1:04 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Just got sick of him slipping
If he isn’t in your top 5 Braves, then you didn’t watch enough of the Bravos in the last four years.
When does BB/9 stabilize?
I know it’s quick. How confident should we be that this new, lower walk rate is likely to continue?
Fun Stat of the Day:
Before I posted this comment, there were 216 comments. That is the Kansas City Royals’ team batting average.
I had a dream where there was a baseball field of sabermetric statistics and they started canceling each other out.
Imagine what it would be without Frenchy?
by TBuzz on May 10, 2011 7:02 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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