Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies Series Preview: Short Road Trip
by TonyAlmeyda on May 6, 2011 1:34 PM EDT
in Series Previews & Recaps
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The Braves will take a brief hiatus from their home stand and travel to Philadelphia for a three-game series with the division rival Phillies. This is the second meeting between the two, with the Phillies taking two of three in Atlanta in the Braves' home-opening series.
Little has changed since the Braves last saw the Phillies, but the Braves enter the series having won five in a row while the Phillies have won six of seven. So far, the Phillies are doing what most everyone had expected them to do, and that's stay on top of the NL East with dominant pitching. Their 21-9 record is currently tied for the best record in all of baseball and are 4.5 games ahead of the Braves.
Pitching matchups and more after the jump.
Friday, May 6: 7:05 p.m. EDT
Lowe wasn't his sharpest in his first start after his DUI arrest, allowing four runs in five innings to St. Louis on May 1. He took the loss against the Phillies April 10 in Atlanta, allowing two runs in seven innings.
Lee is winless in his last three starts, but pitched well enough to win his most recent start, allowing only one run in seven innings to the Mets on May 1. The Braves hammered Lee for six runs in only 3.2 innings April 8 in Atlanta.
Saturday, May 7: 7:05 p.m. EDT
Jurrjens improved to 3-0 this season in his most recent start, tossing 7.2 innings against Milwaukee in a 6-2 victory on May 2. He hasn't faced the Phillies yet this year, but is 3-3 in nine starts with a 2.56 ERA against them and is even better at Citizens Bank Park: 2-1, 1.87 ERA in five starts.
Oswalt is making his first start since April 26 after helping his family cope with the recent tornadoes that struck near his home in Mississippi. He took the loss, his first of the season, allowing five runs in three innings and didn't strike out a batter against Arizona. He earned his first career win against the Braves on April 9, pitching the Phillies to a 10-2 win.
Sunday, May 8: 8:05 p.m. EDT
Hudson was near perfect in his last start May 4, tossing a complete game, 1-hit shutout of Milwaukee and will be pitching on short rest. He outpitched Cliff Lee in the home opener April 8, leading the Braves to a 6-3 win. He's had his troubles against the Phillies, though: a 7-7 record and a 3.70 ERA. He's struggled even more at CBP: 1-2, 3.98 ERA in five starts.
Since his first start of the season when he surrendered six runs in 2.2 innings, Hamels has allowed a total of six runs in his next five starts - a 1.18 ERA over that span; one of those starts included shutting out the Braves for seven innings opposite Derek Lowe April 10. He's 10-5, 3.72 ERA career against the Braves.
PITCHING
Their starting staff has performed to expectations and currently ranks third in the NL in ERA (take a guess who's in first) and hold the NL lead in FIP at 2.85 compared to the 2.86 mark for the Braves. The Braves and Phillies are also 1-2 in the NL in opponent's batting average: the Braves have held batters to a .224 average and the Phillies, .231. Not surprisingly, the two pitching staffs are very alike, but the BABIP fairy has been kinder to the Braves; they rank fourth in the NL in BABIP at .274 while the Phillies rank 10th at .296.
The Phillies are without Joe Blanton and Jose Contreras; they have both been placed on the DL with elbow ailments and Vance Worley and Michael Stutes were recalled in their stead. So far, they've been very effective: Worley has allowed only one run in his 12 innings since being recalled and Stutes has four straight scoreless appearances under him. Ryan Madson has taken over the closer role with Contreras on the DL.
Also missing from the bullpen will be David Herndon, who was optioned to the minors to make room for the returning J.C. Romero from the DL. Herndon had struggled this year, allowing 11 runs in 10.2 innings while allowing a .350 batting average.
OFFENSE
Arguably the hottest Phillies hitter right now is Placido Polanco. He's posted .375/.418/.483 this season and only has FOUR games without a hit. As hot as Polanco has been this season, Raul Ibanez has been just as cold. Ibanez suffered through a miserable stretch where he compiled exactly zero hits in 34 at-bats entering the series against Washington, but showcased hints of turning it around: he was 8 for 12 with five extra-base hits and five RBI in the Phillies' three-game sweep of the Nationals. Despite the good series, Ibanez still sports a lousy .633 OPS. Like Polanco, Jimmy Rollins has also been swinging a hot bat: he's batting .366 (15 for 41) in his last 10 games. Shane Victorino, while not as hot as Polanco or Rollins, is still hitting .286 in his last 10 with three homers and .292 overall. Both Rollins and Victorino lead the team with seven steals.
The Phillies are without catcher Carlos Ruiz for an indeterminable amount of time. Ruiz has been suffering from some back ailments and hasn't appeared in a game since April 27; he had been hitless in his last 23 at-bats until then and was only hitting .226. Brian Schneider has been starting in Ruiz's place and is 5 for 15 in his four starts since Ruiz's injury.
OUTLOOK
Just like the home opener, winning two of three in this series will be tough, but the Braves have been swinging the bats well lately against some good pitching. Let's hope that continues.
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Just received my Heyward jersey in the mail…best reward for getting a haircut EVAR.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Shaving my head entirely (minus eyebrows)…I had burly hair and beard going. The CEO wanted a haircut, I said fine. He said he wanted it shaved entirely, so I countered with a reward for doing so. A deal was struck…got the Nike fashion Heyward jersey available on mlb.com.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Step 1: Strike bargain.
Step 2: Shave hair.
Step 3: Receive Jersey.
Step 4: Grow hair back out.
Step 5: ???
Step 6: PROFIT!
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Just for a second there...
…I thought that said “grow Back Hair out”
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
Odd enough...
I have a bet with my girlfriend that if I grow my beard out until August, she’ll buy me a Heywerd jersey (because she doesn’t think I’ll do it)….I’m going to sport a blue alternate away jersey :-)
I’m actually wearing that precise jersey this very moment.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on May 6, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
I thought it was supposed to be Hanson?
by thenightstallion on May 6, 2011 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I imagine Hudson…sinkerball pitchers have had better luck going on short rest than other pitchers.
The question then becomes how the rotation shapes up after the off-day…someone would have to be skipped, or everyone will be pushed back a day.
If Hudson throws on short rest, he’ll also be in line to pitch the first game of the next series with the Phillies, unless everyone’s moved back a day.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
His last start also had nearly zero high leverage pitches, while Hanson had to pitch our of jams early on. I imagine Hudson gets the start.
That Heyward guy is pretty good.
by another simpsons avatar on May 6, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Hanson will take Hudson spot on Tuesday. Hanson would switch with Hudson in the rotation spots.
by romone_braves91 on May 6, 2011 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
That would put Jurrjens, Hudson, and Hanson in line to start against the Phillies next time around. I’m more than okay with that.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Is there really any combonation that you wouldn’t be ok with?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on May 6, 2011 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions
lets teach the Phillies whos Boss!
ESPN can give the Philthies all the verbal BJs they want, Braves will still clinch the east!
by suicide bunting is a sin on May 6, 2011 1:47 PM EDT reply actions
And by smashing I mean not that unlucky right at people smashing.
I mean that gap, over the fence, and many RBI’s smashing!
2 cents
I predict we lose today’s game, win Saturday, and win Sunday.
Reason for losing game one, Lowe. Not sure if he is in a funk or just distracted from the DUI but I see a qiuck outing for him. We will see the two greats Linebrink and Sherrill in relief.
Saturday’s game we can take because JJ has been hot on the mound lately. If he can keep Howard and Polanco in check while the offense hit a under prepared Oswalt (assumption), victory should be ours.
Sunday will be tricky. Hudson on short rest equates to anything can happen type of performance. The offense might have to pick up slack which will be a problem considering Hamels on mound. I hope Ross, Ugs, and Chipper can knock him out of game early so we can play against the bullpen. This will be a close one but I see us coming out with the W.
Go BRAVOS!!!!!!!
I doubt Ross will be playing on Sunday
since he’ll be catching JJ on Saturday.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Fredi has already said Heap will catch on Saturday bc he like matchup of Heap vs Oswalt.
by romone_braves91 on May 6, 2011 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, then
the whole “Ross catches JJ all the time” plan fell through kind of fast, didn’t it?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Read on the Braves MLB site
that FG said he wasn’t going to stick to a straight regiment of Ross for JJ. If an offensive matchup favors McCann, he’s going to go with that. He also argued baseball superstition and how waiting later in the season to mix it up could throw guys out of sync. His direct quote was “so before we get to that point we won’t get to that point.”
I am sincerely hoping for a sweep of this team.
In other news, AllSaintsDay, you were right. You don’t need the personal “a” when referring to a person that you like.
Good job.
"I'll give any teller who gives me a lollipop 4 stars."-Chip Kelly
by TennesseeQuackAttack8 on May 6, 2011 2:26 PM EDT reply actions
Fun fact
The Braves are 10-4 in their last 14 games, and each of the losses were games where the Braves blew a late lead (4 blown saves). They could very easily be on a 14-game winning streak.
by DreamWithinADream on May 6, 2011 2:41 PM EDT reply actions
Some great pitching matchups.
Of course, that’s to be expected with the two best rotations so far in 2011. I am really just hoping that we win one of the first two, so we have a chance to win the series on Sunday. Anything more than that would be unexpected, given how good the Phillies are and the fact that it’s in their ballpark.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
According to Twitter:
Prado 7
Gonzalez 6
Chipper 5
McCann 2
Uggla 4
Freeman 3
Mather 9
McLouth 8
Lowe 1
Chicks dig the long ball.
DOB: Did you ever hit balls as hard as Jason Heyward does?
Chipper: Is that possible?
Well it’s really just replacing heyward with mather, and putting Gonzo in the most important spot in the lineup.
by Braves Biceps on May 6, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t know if Fredi is trying to play mind games with the Phillies by pretending that we don’t need our best lineup to play them, but the fact is this: we desperately need our best lineup every day for the next 3 games.
I have no words for my confusion on this one.
Chicks dig the long ball.
DOB: Did you ever hit balls as hard as Jason Heyward does?
Chipper: Is that possible?
Is Heyward hurting or something? I mean, yeah, he’s been scuffling of late, but unless he’s injured, I don’t think it’s a reason to give him a day off-excepting, possibly, that he’s requested it. He’s had some BABIP bad luck, but his BB% is good, his K% is okay, and his ISO is great. There’s nothing wrong with his batted ball profile or anything that’s remotely predictive.
I don’t get this.
OMG I CALLED IT!!!!!
I hate to gloat but I said Julio Teheran starting this weekend would be awesome. DAMN THIS IS SICK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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