SB Nation Atlanta Editor's Pick
Thirty Million Smackeroos
by gilley on May 30, 2011 12:36 AM EDT
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PrintI saw some comments in another thread about the money the Braves will have to spend next offseason after some of our contracts expire at the end of the year. I decided to write up an assessment of what the Braves' situation will be in the coming offseason. My goal is to present the information as clearly as possible. While I do have to speculate a little, I tried to be conservative. I don't want to overstate nor understate the opportunities Frank Wren will have to better our ball club as we move forward.
We all know the Braves are going to have money to spend. But exactly how much will they have? What holes will they need to fill with that money in the coming offseason? And do they have a real chance to make a splash in free agency or by acquiring a high-cost player through a trade?
A mid-season trade involving either Derek Lowe or Jair Jurrjens would change things to an extent, but whether they're traded tomorrow or seven months from now, it's all the same, really.
The contracts of Kenshin Kawakami, Nate McLouth, Alex Gonzalez, Scott Linebrink and George Sherrill will expire after this season. Combined, that is $18.867 million coming off the books. If Chipper retires after this season, and I think most of us expect him to, the Braves will free up $31.867 million with the departure of those players.
The players with guaranteed contracts for next season that receive raises are Dan Uggla and Brian McCann. Uggla's salary increases by $4M and McCann's increases by $2M. Eric Hinske will receive a slight raise if the Braves exercise his option, which they probably will. His salary will increase by $0.15M. That's a total of $6.15M in raises before arbitration.
The Braves have four players that will be arbitration eligible for the 2012 season. Martin Prado, Jair Jurrjens and Eric O'Flaherty will enter their second year of arbitration. Peter Moylan will enter his third year of arbitration.
If the Braves decide that they they're going to hold on to Jurrjens rather than trading him, we could very well see them sign Jurrjens to a three year contract, similar to what the Giants did with Matt Cain. Jurrjens isn't likely to be interested in a longer deal. If this hypothetical contract were to be similar to Matt Cain's deal, Jurrjens would likely receive something like $5.5M in '12, $7.5M in '13 and $15M in '14. If the Braves decide not to extend him and either take him to arbitration or avoid arbitration with a one year deal, I would guess that Jurrjens will make around $6M.
Martin Prado should, in my opinion, be signed to a long term extension after this season. The Braves should buy out his last two years of arbitration and extend him for three or four years after that. Seeing as how Prado is not a top tier third baseman (Zimmerman, Longoria, Bautista, A-Rod), I think he is the perfect player for a mid-market team like the Braves to lock down with a long term contract. He is the best of the second tier, and can probably be signed to a deal like 12: $5M, 13: 7M, 14: 9M, 15: $9M, 16: 9M, 17: $9M. That is a six year deal worth $48M, which I think is a reasonable and fair estimation for what it would take to keep Prado in Atlanta through his age 33 season.
Either way, Prado's salary will probably be in the vicinity of $5-6M in 2012, which is all that really matters as far as this post is concerned. The raises for O'Flaherty and Moylan will be between $2-4M combined.
If neither of Jair Jurrjens or Derek Lowe is traded, the Braves will be left with roughly $18M dollars to spend next offseason. At least one of them will be dealt, however, and I actually think both will be traded after the season (Lowe could possibly be dealt during the season).
With Minor and Teheran, the Braves can replace both of them next year without a detrimental drop-off in production. Jurrjens is fantastic, but the two guys we have waiting in the wings are extremely talented themselves, and they're a lot cheaper. Honestly, I don't under-appreciate Jair Jurrjens. I'm as big a fan of his as anybody. I just think this is the best course of action.
Another advantage we have is that Hudson will still be here in 2012 and could have his option picked up in 2013, which gives us insurance that our prospects (Delgado, Vizcaino, Clemens, Hoover, Oberholtzer) will have time to develop before we have a need for starting pitching.(2012 Rotation = Hudson, Hanson, Teheran, Beachy, Minor)
Jair Jurrjens is making $3.25M, so if we eat $8M of Lowe's salary, trading the two of them will free up a combined $10.25M in our payroll. Our holes will be in left field, center field and at short stop. We could also use a couple of dependable late inning relievers. I expect Schafer to be our centerfielder, so that solves one problem.
-32.867 + 6.15 + 7 - 10.25 = -29.967
In total, that's $30M coming off the books after this season. Wren will have that money, plus a king's ransom in trade pieces (including Jurrjens) to bolster our bullpen and fill our holes at left field and short stop. There are some intriguing options on the potential free agents list, which I know have already been discussed here before. What's really interesting is the potential to trade for a young player, entering or at least approaching his prime, that is still under team control. I don't want to start a rosterbation thread. This is just meant to provide a clear understanding of where the Braves stand in terms of payroll going into next season.
Looking even further into the future, none of these players will reach free agency until after the 2015 season at the earliest: Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, Jonny Venters, Craig Kimbrel, Freddie Freeman, Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. It's likely that Liberty Media will sell the Braves within the next few years, which makes it impossible to look too far into the future. What we do know is that the Braves have a clear opportunity to build another dynasty.
If I screwed something up, forgot to include something that changes the entire outlook for the Braves or did anything that renders this entire post useless....please, be gentle.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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for doing the research ive been too lazy to do. There are a lot of assumptions here, but it IS great information to have. I will say, however, it does seem a little early to try and put an exact dollar amount on how much money we will have for free agents, maybe itd be best to hold on to the numbers you have and come back after the trade deadline, because its almost a given that we will make a move. Good post, just a little premature in my eyes, and so many assumptions and possible other routes the team could take before we get to this bridge.
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while." - Dave Cameron
Nice post.
The next 18 months or so will probably define Frank Wren’s tenure as the Braves’ GM. He has an immense amount of young, cheap talent which could potentially lead into the 2nd coming of the Braves dominance in the NL East. He also has quite a bit of money coming off the books in the next two years.
I’m all for a Martin Prado extension. He’s a freaking stud. And he’s Chipper’s replacement at 3B whenever he retires.
As for finding a shortstop and center fielder, I think it’ll play out like this: If Schafer sticks in center, we’ll let Gonzo leave and we’ll try to make a big move for a shortstop such as Stephen Drew or even a young star in Starlin Castro. It would take a lot, but we have the pitching and both Chicago and Arizona are looking for pitching.
If Schafer doesn’t stick in center, I think we’ll re-sign Gonzo to a 1 or 2-year deal and then make a move for an outfielder, presumably a center fielder.
Of course this all really hinges on what Chipper does. If he leaves, we could presumably be in the market for a shortstop, left fielder, AND center fielder. That could be fun/scary/crazy.
"It's not about me, it's about the team." - Martin Prado
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
The next 18 months or so will probably define Frank Wren’s tenure
Pretty heavy stuff MVHS. I hadn’t looked at the big picture yet. This is definitely a test. I’d venture a guess that he has an envied position among other GMs. It will be interesting to see how he handles the pitching depth.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on May 30, 2011 3:14 AM EDT up reply actions
SS might solve itself.
Pastornicky should be ready next year, so I’d re-sign A-Gon for 1yr/$2.5mil, but give him some days off as give Pastornicky a shot at the MLB level. Worst case, we sign a stopgap SS again until one of the SS prospects is ready in 3-4 years.
The OF situation is the one that a guess has to be made, due to Schaefer being unproven, and Heyward’s durability being questionable.
Blasphemy, I know...
but looking at Stephen Drew’s h/r splits, I’m not as big on him as I once was. His ops loses almost .075 when he leaves BoB, and goes from above average to below. If we went for him, I’d be afraid he’d pull a McLouth and quickly become less than we bargained for. What I’m saying is, if Wren does him for JJ straight up, and we just got took.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
although...
it might be worth getting took if it makes justin make good on his promise.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Agreed vv
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on May 31, 2011 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions
I have a really bad feeling Chipper and Brett Favre have something in common…
by 5InningsofChuckJames on May 30, 2011 1:38 AM EDT reply actions
-Hey Brett, the world thinks you should retire.
-You said $12 million, right? Yeah tell them they can go **** themselves.
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
He lost money by playing. He made more doing endorsments and he didn’t do them while playing. The dolts on talk radio can go **** themselves. Sadly they have plenty of believers.
How could it possibly cost someone more than $12m to play football?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
How about 5 years from now he’s not good enough to be a starter anymore, but he could still be a back up that pays like $5M.
Ya I’ll take that.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Good post, thanks for organizing all that
I see the biggest need being a legitimate left fielder. I’d be happy as a clam if Prado stayed out there, but he’s destined for 3rd base. Schafer looks determined to make a good impression and stake his claim to center field. Gonzalez is just amazing at short stop, and he hits well enough to not be a burden. I think Wren will re-sign him for a year or two with an option for a decent price. Wren has been adamant that he pays big for power, SS isn’t really a power position (a few exceptions noted).
We should have the money for a LF and a couple of extensions, maybe Prado and Jurrjens. I get the feeling both those guys want to stay in Atlanta. I hope they can.
"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G
Is whoever has the final say in the matter so shortsided
they dont realize that spending another 10-15 million/year to keep the team a title contender is a much better investment than handcuffing the FO, letting talent walk, and losing out on ticket and merchandise sales?
Proud perpetrator of yelling "Money MIke" at Oracle Arena since Dunleavy's trade to the Pacers.
I really don’t want to trade Jurrjens. The guy is becoming an ace. At this point I would much rather sign him to a long term deal than Hanson. If you start trading away your good players when they get expensive you turn into the Royals of the early 2000’s. You can’t always rely on prospects coming up and being good. Let’s face it the last couple of highly rated prospects we’ve had haven’t exactly become great players yet. I would have no problems offering Jurrjens something in the 4-6 year range at $12-15M per.
I am all for trading Lowe. He has started to become inconsistent and the only hope we have is if he can string together a couple of good starts leading up to the deadline and have someone overpay for him. Honestly if we got someone to take his remaining salary this year and $12M next year and got nothing in return I wouldn’t be that disappointed.
Even if Schafer sticks at CF and I think he will I still think we should offer Gonzalez a 1 or 2 year deal to come back. He is very good defensively and is pretty steady offensively. Plus the FA market for SS next year sucks. Unless we want to overpay for Reyes there really isn’t anyone who would be an upgrade.
One scenario I would look at if Chipper does retire would be bringing in Betemit to play 3B. Living in the Royals market I have watched him a lot this year and he has been pretty good. Solid defensively, 15-20 HR’s and switch hits.
The CF FA market isn’t that good either but someone like Crisp or DeJesus wouldn’t be bad out there. I think its Schafer’s job for awhile now though.
by jack dein on May 30, 2011 2:19 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
On a side not what’s everyone think Jose Reyes will get for a contract.
He’ll turn 29 during the 2012 season. He plays good defense at a premium position, high avg. (.288) decent on base (.337) should hit 10 HR’s a season and steal 30 bases. The big issue is his health.
He reportedly wants 7 years $142M, that’s just over $20M a season. A 7 year deal would pay him for his ages 29-35 years. I see his game going downhill in 3-4 years. If he isn’t stealing 30 bases a year and causing problems on the base paths he becomes an easily replaceable player.
I don’t really have a problem paying him $20M a year but I wouldn’t go to 7 years.
6 years $119M would be as high as I would go with him.
No thanks on Reyes...
his game is based on speed, and that goes away fast as you age. With his injuries, it goes away even faster. Not for me.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on May 30, 2011 7:36 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Could be a lot...
Boston looks somewhat in need of a SS, maybe the Yankees if Jeter retires gracefully. The Dodgers could use one. Having those 3, as well as the Mets and others in the bidding, could see his price get much higher than he’d be worth.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on May 30, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
"if Jeter retires gracefully"
I lol’d.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
by duwanis on May 30, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Boston needs a SS?
Don’t they already have three? (Lowrie, Scutaro, and Iglesias).
Scutaro's deal is over this year...
they may not be willing to turn the spot over to Lowrie or Iglesias.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I think they will give it to Lowrie and sign a veteran to spot start when necessary, but its possible they sign Reyes.
I just feel like Reyes is gonna get a big contract from a stupid team. It seems like the big teams are too smart to sign him to that awful of a contract but the Mariners or someone else who is a mid tier team and has the money to spend but shouldnt spend it.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Boston has a top 3 SS prospect waiting to come up next season, so I’d declare them out of the Reyes sweepstakes.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on May 31, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
6 years 119
Making it an even $20 mil per year is too much for you?
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
119/6 = 19+
6 years, 17 mil per = 102
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
I also say keep JJ
He is young and there is no way you get something back that is as good as he is
Minor might be able to come up and pitch a good year, but how in the world can we speculate that he will be phenomenal when healthy for all of his first three years..
We aren’t talking about a gap in drop off between the two pitchers, we are talking about a young pitcher that could be solid and a young pitcher that has proven he can be an ace.
The first year he was supposed to be a rookie but was forced into the roll of staff ace.
the next year he posted a 2.6 era
he was injured and we had a lot of pitchers last year so he somehow became viewed as expendable???
and this year he has the lowest era in baseball..
dude is not expendable.
He would have to prove this level of excellence for a couple more years to get back the return we would deserve on him – because chances are, he will be this excellent for at least a couple more years.
I also think we are in position to sign a very reasonable contract with him this off season, and if he pitches like this through the season, no one will be opposed to spending some money to keep him. Saving some money to keep Hanson, Pitching Hudson at a discount, and Pitching Beachy and Teheran for free.
That means trading Lowe
And trading Minor
With the money we will have, and minor and lowe to trade, I am confident that we can swing a phenomenal young short stop and/or left fielder. Especially if we throw in some of our other prospects.
I can’t imagine us getting fair value for JJ which is why I continue to be against trading him. I know he is a injury risk but he seems to be making a leap. Playoffs have proven that a strong 3 headed monster can win you a championship. Even with our young pitching talent it will take time for them to develop while JJ has already developed. I think we’re entering a short term window where Hudson, JJ, and Hanson can lead us to a championship and I don’t think you mortgage that unless you get an amazing deal.
Furthermore JJ’s stuff just isn’t that amazing strikeout stuff that would get teams drooling. He is going to continue to be more valuable to us than outsiders. I know people like to delude themselves into us trading JJ for Matt Kemp or someone like that but it isn’t happening.
Straight up?
JJ entering ARB-2 for Kemp entering ARB-3? Bet the Dodgers would do it.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Me either.
As I said, the Dodgers would.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
No, the Dodgers wouldn't do that.
They have next to no hitting, and they aren’t going to trade one of the two or three guys who can hit that they have.
It just seems like to me that we would get more bang for our buck spending it on a hitter. This is pure speculation, but my guess is that we WILL definitely have decent pitching for 7+ years. Hitting still seams to be a question mark. I love JJ, but I don’t know that we get the best value paying premium for another pitcher when we struggle so much on offense.
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on May 30, 2011 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem is getting reliable mid tier hitting is incredibly hit or miss. We still won’t be able to afford to get the top guys. I’d rather keep JJ than take Mclouth type positional chances. Look at how much Werth got. These position guys often get way more than they are worth so I’d say its in serious doubt if we would get more bang for our buck.
Point taken, but...
Jair Jurrjens
2008: 188.1 IP, 3.68 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 1.99 K/BB, 2.5 WAR
2009: 215 IP, 2.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 2.03 K/BB, 5.3 WAR
7.8 WAR
Nate McLouth
2008: .276/.356/.497, 4.6 WAR
2009: .256/.352/.436, 2.8 WAR
7.4 WAR
Jurrjens’ 2009 would be regarded as EXCELLENT and his 2008 would be regarded as above average, while McLouth’s 2008 would be regarded as very good and his 2009 average. The combination of the two years would label Jurrjens as a top-rotation starter, yet it would label McLouth a mediocre hitter. Their value above replacement, however, were nearly exactly the same. You can get quite a bit of value back for a top-shelf pitcher, which Jurrjens is on the way to establishing himself as, and such a pitcher is much easier to replace. You use Jurrjens as a way to bring someone worth much more in WAR. For instance, McLouth is 22nd in OPS among 25 qualified CFers in 2011. #11-13 are three guys who will be likely available depending on their team’s situation at the deadline or offseason: Denard Span, BJ Upton, and Chris Young. I’d not trade Jurrjens straight up for Span, and I don’t know that TB or AZ would trade Upton or Young straight up for Jurrjens, but they’d be solid centerpieces of a deal that would work. Jurrjens with his amazing season thus far has produced 2.2 WAR, while Span has 2.8, Upton has 0.8 (largely because of negative defensive value thus far, which he usually contributes ~1.0 dWAR), and Young has offered 0.9 WAR. When guys who aren’t top 10 in their position offensively are producing more WAR than Jurrjens has while leading the league in ERA and having by far his best season of his career, it tells you that it is much more difficult to replace a solid position player than a solid pitcher. Atlanta’s system is also very heavily weighed currently with top-notch pitching prospects, so this is an area where Atlanta can choose not to keep around a guy who will be a 2-3 starter long-term and bring up guys with “ace” potential year-after-year. Trading Jurrjens may be unpopular with how he’s performed thus far, but it will the best move in long-term value for the franchise most likely.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 6:15 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
bad math
cause JJ was injured much of the year and his replacement was a good pitcher himself where Nate was never injured and just played terribly
I don’t mess with saber data much. Would it work to fill in JJ’s injured time with his season average that year to give an estimate of a full healthy year?
"One thing I’ve learned as a Phillies fan is that a lot of people hate our team and its fans."-commenter on The Good Phight
by Chipper Pwns on May 30, 2011 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Um?
What injured year? I don’t have 2010 included for the reason of both guys not faring well in that season, Jurrjens for injury, McLouth for poor play. 2008 and 2009, they were both healthy.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 5:37 PM EDT up reply actions
The thing is we never saw 2008 McLouth while JJ keeps improving. Buying high on positional players continues to haunt us. Again I just don’t see us getting proper value. We’d have to give up so much extra to get a Kemp or Upton.
We saw 2008 McLouth.
He was just on a different team.
JJ was a rookie in 2008
and it was mclouth’s best season in his prime
I think we shouldn’t trade JJ, even if we got a king’s ransom. If we do in fact give away JJ and Lowe, then we’re looking at only 2 guys in our rotation that has spent a full season in the Major Leagues. I’m confident in Beachy to do his thing, so that’s 3 solid pitchers. Minor is iffy here and then, so I guess I’m okay with him. Teheran has only made 2 starts. He never pitched more than 5 innings in each, so that’s the rough spot.
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
Dude, it’s a 100% certainty that Julio Teheran will be in our rotation next year. You’re saying that he’s “the rough spot” because he made two major league starts at the age of 20 and didn’t set the world on fire. That’s just silly. Teheran is a beast. We are lucky to have him.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
He wasn’t sharp in Philly, and his start in Zona didn’t go beyond the fourth inning, I believe. he hasn’t pitched deep into ball games.
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
If you don't believe in him then...
well you are not a Braves fan.
If you would have watched for potential then it was great.
-A good fastball that he can locate quite well
-an amazing change up kinda like Lincecum’s
- a average curve that needs work
He just needs seasoning
"I came to the Mets to be on a winning team"
-Chris Young
by BravosFanatic on May 30, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If you don’t believe in him then…
well you are not a Braves fan.
that makes you sound stupid…
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
It was a cup of coffee.
Was Freeman a shaky prospect because of how he [didn’t] hit in September of last year?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Hi, I'm baseball...
Have we met?
Doesn’t seem so.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Youre not thinking logically
If MLB only had pitchers that did well in their first two starts, we might have 5 or 6 pitchers in the majors.
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
Jordan Lyles went 8 innings in his debut, why can’t Teheran? Oh yeah, that’s right, we have to make sure our up-and-coming pitchers debut against the Phillies.
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
Or it could be organization philosophy
Where the Astros need arms so desperately, that they’re willing to run out a young pitcher all game long if need be, damn the consequences.
The Braves, thank goodness, are much more responsible with young arms and ease them into competition. When hitters on the opposition walk away saying that Teheran will be the real deal, I think he showed something awfully good.
Just a few recent ones for you (selected from the top 50 all time in pitching WAR that have thrown a pitch in the last 15 years):
Greg Maddux 9 IP, 3 BB, 4 K, 3 ER (debut was a 1 IP relief appearance, this was his first start), 20 y/o
John Smoltz 8 IP, 1 BB, 2 K, 1 ER, 21 y/o
Mike Mussina 7.2 IP, 4 BB, 1 K, 1 ER, 22 y/o
Curt Schilling 7 IP, 5 BB, 2 K, 3 ER, 21 y/o
Pedro Martinez 6 IP, 0 BB, 7 K, 2 ER (debut was a 2 IP relief appearance), 20 y/o
Roger Clemens 5.2 IP, 3 BB, 4 K, 4 ER, 21 y/o
Kevin Brown 5 IP, 0 BB, 4 K, 2 ER, 23 y/o
Roy Halladay 5 IP, 2 BB, 5 K, 2 ER, 21 y/o
Randy Johnson 5 IP, 3 BB, 5 K, 2 ER, 25 y/o
David Cone 5 IP, 6 BB, 3 K, 7 ER, 24 y/o (had made 15 relief appearances before first start)
Tom Glavine 3.2 IP, 5 BB, 1 K, 6 ER, 21 y/o
Teheran was younger than anyone on this list at his first start, and he also made that start in May, not as a September call-up as many of these guys did. Get over your unreal expectations. This kid has every tool you could ask for in a pitcher. Barring a major injury, he’ll have a very productive MLB career.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Jun 2, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Also
If youre concerned about having a rookie in the lineup when you also have two sophomores, then that’s valid. But using those two games as youre reasoning isn’t.
Also don’t forget about Meds.
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
*your reasoning
I am so very, very tired.
"He knows where he's throwing. If he didn't, there'd be dead bodies strewn all over Idaho." - Washington Senators scout on Walter Johnson
It is also gonna take a king's ransom to keep him in Atlanta
Teheran is only 20! After he gets his curveball down he will be dominant. Delgado will be ready by next years All star Break. I say keep JJ but if we can get someone like Kemp for him then I’m all in.
I would like a trade for Denard Span around Schafer
"I came to the Mets to be on a winning team"
-Chris Young
by BravosFanatic on May 30, 2011 10:17 AM EDT up reply actions
No thanks to Span
Not a fan of his, would much rather pick up Bourn from Houston if we target a CF. With that being said, I think CF is the least of our worries since a CF can be had for relatively cheap and more importantly we have Schafer. All that being said, we are going to have a great deal of pitching next season.
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Lowe
Beachy
Minor
Teheran
Medlen
And Delegado and others knocking on the door. Someone will get dealt, the question remains of who and for what position. If chipper retires, yes, Martin could go back to 3rd, but what if David Wright becomes available to us. Prado’s ability to play 4 or 5 positions makes this offseason even more wide open with possibilities. It all hinges on Chipper, IMO. But just to throw my 2 cents into this, a CF with leadoff ability isn’t a pressing need and isn’t what has caused our offensive struggles this year.
by murph35 on May 30, 2011 10:58 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Oh yeah, I forgot about Medlen! Next year, it will probably be:
Hudson
Hanson
Jurrjens
Lowe/Minor/Beachy
Medlen
MEDLEN WAS BEAST!
"What are you doing, putting the tying run on first base? This is baseball, not backgammon!" -Walter Matheau, The Bad News Bears
He is my favortie player in the MLB right now
but he is long relief guy and a good one at that.
I see
Hanson
JJ
Lowe
Beachy/Minor (one will be traded)
Teheran
"I came to the Mets to be on a winning team"
-Chris Young
by BravosFanatic on May 30, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
You forgot Hudson
Also, Medlen will be back in the rotation, refer back to ST when he talked about that 5th rotation being his, I’m sure he expects to get back in that roll, either with us or someone else. I see Minor and JJ being dealt, honestly. Then you have:
Hudson
Hanson
Lowe
Medlen
Beachy/Teheran
We very much could bring back a haul from a Minor and JJ trade. I’d love to unload Lowe, but with his contract it really handcuffs the team. A Minor and JJ trade could really help reload the system with OF and IF prospects AND address any bullpen problems we may have.
by murph35 on May 30, 2011 2:56 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Medlen has no spot in the rotation- he will replace Moylan next year as half of the 7th inning combo meal with EOF.
Completely disagree.
Medlen WILL BE in the rotation next year. He’s too valuable of a pitcher to put into a role in which he’s better suited as a starter, he proved that. Do we need more starting pitchers? No. But what we have are starting pitchers. We can’t trade him due to his surgery, bc we won’t get fair market value for him either. If anyone replaces Moylan it’s Gearrin
by murph35 on May 30, 2011 11:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Medlen has never shown he can handle a starter’s workload and the fact that we have starters that can produce the same if not better than Medlen, Medlen is probably going to be in the pen next year.
we won like 13 of his 14 starts
he is phenomenal, and his changeup is devastating.. I want him in the rotation.
Slider – Hanson, Teheran
Sinker – Hudson
Curve – Teheran
Change up – Medlen
Beachy doesn’t have a particularly nasty pitch to my knowledge, but I am thinking that with Medlen we keep throwing nasty pitches at guys, I don’t think Minor has a particularly nasty pitch, I don’t think JJ does either. But correct me someone
Are we really going to play the wins card here?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Well, yes, but...
Two things. There are pitcher wins (hereafter, Wins) which we can all agree are pretty useless.
Then there are games where the team wins (wins, lowercase). Associating those with any one event is kind of silly, especially over a sample of 14 games.
Medlen can pitch, don’t get me wrong… but the fact that “we won like 13 of his 14 starts” has just as much (if not more) to do with when he entered (and exited) the rotation than it has to do with his abilities.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Medlen didn’t get 2009 Derek Lowe wins. He was probably the 3rd best starter until he got hurt last year.
That said, 2010 Medlen may only be the 4th or 5th best starter this year.
If Medlen could handle a full workload, and he might, he definitely is good enough to be a starter. That said, with our pitching, he’s the 6th best option probably- and should be in the pen, or spot starting.
I knew i was missing someone…
Him over Teheran
"I came to the Mets to be on a winning team"
-Chris Young
by BravosFanatic on May 30, 2011 6:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Why love Bourn and not Span?
They are pretty much the same player.
No love for either, honestly.
I’d prefer to let Schafer have the spot and bat him 1st or 8th. The real question still lies with what Chipper decides to do and the market for SS’s
by murph35 on May 31, 2011 11:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Why not lock up Gonzo for a year and call up Pastornicky next year?
"Melky is a runs producer" -Dayton Moore (Royals GM)
Follow me @Alex7Deal
by BravosFanatic on May 31, 2011 11:35 AM EDT up reply actions
why all the schafer love?
he hasn’t shown he can hit, he can’t get on base and he sure as hell shouldn’t be at the top of the order. go back to his post-PED MiLB stats, he’s just not that great. our OF is going to need some serious pieces if Heyward can’t stay healthy and Martin moves to 3rd.
I wouldn't mind Span
…but I’m not a huge fan. I used him in my earlier example as he is available and just outside the top 10 in CF OPS. He wouldn’t be bad, but I’d want much more than just Span for Jurrjens.
Of course, others will pan for guys like Bourn. McLouth currently ranks 22nd among 25 qualified CFers in OPS. Bourn is 21st.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
You forget
We will also have Medlen fully recovered. In fact, without trades, you will have Lowe, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, and Medlen all ready for the MLB rotation. That’s still 6 guys for 5 spots if you trade 2!
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 5:40 PM EDT up reply actions
this is seriously one hell of a drama.. what the hell is going to happen?
three guys have to go!!
Not Hudson
Not Hanson
Not Teheran
Medlen?
Minor?
JJ?
Lowe?
Beachy?
Only two of these guys can stay..
If you could pick two, who would they be?
regardless of return value, I would say it’s between
JJ
Medlen
Beachy
That means for me
Lowe is gone
Minor is gone
It’s key to remember too, this isn’t going to be the long standing five…
Someone could get traded the very next spring to bring up Delgado or Vizcaino or someone else that’s on the radar.
Knowing that, I would for sure keep JJ another year while he is cheap. Then decide on the extension when you have a better idea of how this wave of prospects turns out over the course of the next year.
Beachy will tell us this year if the spot is his, or if Medlen needs to step in in September and into the next year… Medlen will probably tell us then if he is taking the rotation spot, or performing just well enough to be the long man.
By the way, at this rate, C. Martinez is going to bring us back value on the trade market if we want to bring up another long reliever mid season
You can keep more than 2 of those 5...
between Medlen and Beachy, you can stick at least one, if not both, in the bullpen. That leaves Minor, JJ, and Lowe for 2 spots, which would allow Beachy to be a long man/starter in face of injury while Medlen works the 7th/8th with Venters in front of Kimbrel.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Martin Prado needs be be extend, but I think six years is a little too long. Three to five years, averaging five to seven million a year is ideal. Also, Lowe should be traded this offseason
Martin wouldn't
Martin would play for league minimum every year if it meant helping the team.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
It was a joke.
Calm down. :)
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'd be fine with that
and I’m sure Prado would be happy with that also….The man just wants to play baseball and help the team win. How can you not love him?
Yes and no.
He enjoys playing and helping the team. That doesn’t mean he is going to leave money on the table for no apparent reason. We should make a fair offer to him; given what he does, that would only be right.
I don't think anybody's saying that we should scalp him
just that if he errs on any side of fair, it’s going to be towards the team-friendly side.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Thanks for piggybacking on my lack of research from the other post!! LOL
Great post!! Rec’d, by the way.
CEO and Founder of the Hire Bill Cowher for 2012 Bandwagon.
Pack your bags, TS and JI.
The original post is off by about...
…$13 million.
Chipper has a choice after this season: play the game he loves and do what he has done his entire adult life and get compensated $13 million for his efforts or find something else to do with himself and get paid zilch. He isn’t going to retire.
Well, I mentioned that. I said that I think most people expect him to retire, and so I ran with that expectation. He might not retire, you’re right.
But if he doesn’t retire, that’s one less hole to fill in our lineup. You take $13 million dollars off of our available funds, but you also have Martin Prado manning left field, making short stop and center field the only positions we’ll have to fill in our lineup.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
Personally
I think we’re far better off having Chipper play than trying to replace his production with $13 mil. Then we don’t have a hole in LF to replace and we won’t have to trade as much of our starting pitching depth (which is a REALLY good thing).
At some point, however
We will have to trade a pitcher. We don’t have the ability to start 8 pitchers.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I’m thinkin Minor , JJ, or Beachy
But exactly what are we going to trade for if Schafer succeeds?
"Melky is a runs producer" -Dayton Moore (Royals GM)
Follow me @Alex7Deal
by BravosFanatic on May 30, 2011 9:21 PM EDT up reply actions
A SS,...
since Sea Bass is gone after this year. Or a LF, maybe 3B if Chipper retires depending on what we like best since Prado could play either. Or there’s always the lovely reload the farm idea getting back a good prospect haul to set things up going forward.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
This
And I see option 3 as being where Jurrjens would be an awesome trade chip. He’s having his best season, still not quite yet expensive, and he’s one of the few such arms available on the market. He could bring back a VERY good prospect haul if we chose to go that route.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
Agreed
Just saying it’s smarter to only trade 1 or 2 and keep some depth than trading 2 or 3 and limiting your options when injuries pop up.
That's just it
We start with 8 going into the offseason, and there are at least 3-4 who will be ready at some point in 2012 to make starts as needed in our minor league system. We no longer have a system full of A ball guys. Those guys are at AA and AAA and still thriving, meaning we have a glut of young, cheap, talented pitching knocking at the door. Holding onto anyone overpriced or overvalued (as Jurrjens would be right now) is fool’s play when there are holes in the offense that could be filled with such trades.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 30, 2011 11:36 PM EDT up reply actions
It’s not that. It’s just a matter of recognizing that a general manager is going to have to make shrewd decisions in order to build the best team possible. It would be easy to justify keeping Jurrjens and trading Mike Minor or Brandon Beachy, but the difference in cost of those players is very large while the difference in production is much smaller.
I think fans are attached to Jurrjens, for good reason, and it’s difficult for people accept that the best course of action is to trade him.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
Yes and no. Again.
You are forgetting the “we have to have a guy from Curacao on our team because it is a really cool island” factor here.
Nah
Just saying his current performance this year is a different level of performance than he’s displayed at any time. That will drive up his value currently from what should be expected, which is why i used the overvalued comment. I think he’ll have a long career (with injury caveat) as a mid-rotation starter, which does have plenty of value.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
He pitched close to this good in 2009. He is getting older which means he will be getting better each year. FW will not trade JJ. I kinda want him to but FW won’t give away JJ unless its a great deal
"Melky is a runs producer" -Dayton Moore (Royals GM)
Follow me @Alex7Deal
by BravosFanatic on May 31, 2011 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Actually, I think his most remarkable performance to date was his first 24 games of the 2008 season when he literally carried the staff. He ran out of gas after that, but he was damn near awesome up to that point.
I agree but the point is
that JJ isn’t just coming out from nowhere
"Melky is a runs producer" -Dayton Moore (Royals GM)
Follow me @Alex7Deal
by BravosFanatic on May 31, 2011 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Absolutely not...
for each of his first three full seasons, when healthy, he has been a definite front half of the rotation caliber starter. A 2/3 if you will.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I'd agree with that...
but the sabre-inclined will scream “rate stats”, “regression”! At worst a 3, probably a 2, borderline 1 depending on your staff and how hot he is pitching.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I am in complete agreement with you and Mr. Sanchez as well.
JJ is by no means coming out of nowhere. VIrtually all of last season, he struggled with injuries and never was able to get on his game. But last season has every indication of being an outlier.
Other than last season, he has quite consistently been very good to exceptional, and if anything, he seems to be improving by leaps and bounds.
Moreover, as all good Braves fans should appreciate after years of marveling at Maddux and Glavine, a pitcher (in the finest sense of the word) does not have to throw 95 MPH or rack up high K counts to be a number 1 front of rotation guy or, more generally, just very highly successful. (And no, that statement does not to equate JJ to those or any other HOFers.)
Mr. Sanchez said it best
2/3 for sure. This year’s results are quite out of nowhere as far as his rate stats are concerned, but him performing well is not out of norms. He’s a 2/3 that will have streaks of being quite good, but his rate stats have been pretty steady throughout. The sudden change in them this year keeps me cautious about any sort of expectation that this is a whole new JJ. The “new level of performance” comment is absolutely in reference to his rate stats, which are coming out of nowhere.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions
He was pretty good last year too, when healthy...
just check his game log. When he was feeling good, it showed big time.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=jurrjja01&t=p&year=2010
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Agree w/cavebirds assessment of Chipper
I would be surprised if Chipper hangs them up. I may be wrong (& I usually am) but I recall reading somewhere that on his latest contract Chipper took a home town discount to free up some cash for the Braves. I doubt he leaves even more money on the table than what he already has.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring." Rogers Hornsby
Left field will be on of our biggest holes. Hmmm...
Solution: sign Prince Fielder and move him to LF!!
On a serious note though, there aren’t that many great OF’s on the free agent market next year. I would rather us move some pieces around and get a big time LF (or if Schafer fails this year, a big time CF).
Keep Gonzo around for one more year and call up Pastornicky towards the end of the year. The kid has proven he can hit at the AA level thus far.
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on May 30, 2011 11:02 PM EDT reply actions
*one
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on May 30, 2011 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I was being sarcastic
Can you imagine that VERY large man playing in the outfield? Disaster
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Jun 2, 2011 2:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Count me among those who'll be shocked if Chipper retires.
No matter how badly the rest of this year goes. It’s just the way it is. The Billy Wagners of the world are exceptionally rare.
Why is there so much expectation JJ will be traded?
I get the arb. issue, but based on performance and age, JJ is probably our best bet for the next 8 years to anchor the rotation (taking into account the eternal “if healthy” factor.) He is more proven than Hanson, far younger than Huddy, waaaay ahead of Beachy/Minor and has (imho) better stuff than Medlin. Trading JJ should completely solve our OF/SS issues for years to come; otherwise, trade Medlin/Minor/Beachy/anyoneelse (and still get a great return on them.) JJ, if healthy and combined with Huddy and Hanson could dominate a short-series and run us through the playoffs. I can’t really say that about Minor/Beachy/Kris/etc with any conviction. Not yet anyway.
by John Pope Walker on May 31, 2011 2:32 AM EDT reply actions
Oy
Medlen
It’s been explained numerous times in the thread, but I’ll provide it for you again. JJ is marketable and he’s about to get expensive. The Braves have a glut of pitchers sitting at AA/AAA that will be very solid pitchers to allow the Braves to maximize the value of the pitchers in the current rotation in trades to improve the team. Going into the offseason, barring a trade this summer, the team will have 8 starters for 5 spots, and guys like Hoover, Clemens, Delgado, Oberholtzer, and Vizcaino are sitting in AA and very well could make the move to being ready for the rotation and/or spot starting in 2012. We have the flexibility to move 2 current starters without drastically impacting the major league rotation. As far as trade value, Hanson would have more than Jurrjens for good reason – he is a more talented pitcher. That is why the Braves should hold onto Hanson. He’s a true ace talent, and those don’t come along every day.
Just for your comparison:
Hanson – 394.2 IP, 3.10 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 bb/9, 8.1 k/9, 2.88 k/bb, 7.1 WAR
Jurrjens – 616 IP, 3.30 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 3.1 bb/9, 6.3 k/9, 2.05 k/bb, 10.7 WAR
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions
JJ is pitching like a Maddux-type ace, and those don’t come along every day.
See e.g., http://www.talkingchop.com/2011/5/30/2197319/the-braves-jair-jurrjens-is-on-quite-the-streak.
And if he keeps that up...
…we have the wonderful dilemma of either keeping him or getting huge trade value for him. Looks like a win/win to me.
Yes
Look into his stats for this season. His K rate is drastically lower, yet he’s walking half of what he has in his career (which is why he’s at 3.1 bb/9 instead of even higher). His hit rate is also extremely low. His BABIP is also about 20 points lower than his career numbers. He’s not anywhere near matching Maddux numbers, though, so don’t just toss that comparison around.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
This was quite obviously mentioned in the context of his current 9 start streak of not allowing more than 2 earned runs, which has been bettered in the entire history of baseball on only 16 occasions, 4 of which were by Maddux, who was,of course, and as we all know, incomparably astounding.
Then it was extremely poor wording
Because while the results have been what they have, he has not pitched “like a Maddux-type ace” during this time. The statistics simply do not support that. Maddux was considered a control specialist and an elite ground ball guy, but he also kept a K rate above 7 for most of his early career and a walk rate below what Jurrjens is doing this year (which is half of what he typically allows per nine). Maddux maintained a miniscule home run rate as well. Basically, Greg did everything possible as a pitcher to ensure that he would end the game with a win (no walks, strike out a fair amount, locate well, and keep the ball in the ballpark).
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Silly quibbling.
In 9 starts, JJ has a 7-1 record and a 1.51 ERA. He has had our team in a position to win each and every game he has started. A starting pitcher (finer points of statistical analysis be damned) can not consistently do much better than that.
And why do you think I linked to yesterday’s front page article?
Yet you chose Maddux
….which is why I responded about him.
I understand you don’t want to imagine that this run could possibly end, but I guess I will play devil’s advocate on this issue to say to look deeper into the numbers.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions
No, very obviously, and as I very carefully and clearly indicated above, Maddox was mentioned solely because the front page article pointed out that he (astoundingly) owned 4 of the 16 longer such streaks in the history of baseball.
Wow
Maddux’s name showed up FOUR different times on that list. I think it’s fair to say that NOBODY was Maddux-like, much less a guy at the bottom of the list.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Also, please stop be insulting and condescending. My imagination is extremely vivid and certainly encompasses the remote possibility that at some point in the future Jurrgens will yield more than 2 ER in a baseball game
If that was what you consider insulting and condescending
You may want to shut off the internet…now.
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 31, 2011 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions
consider that being a devil's advocate
can point you in the direction straight down to hell.
As great as JJ is..
He’s really the most marketable pitcher on the team right now, other than Hanson and Teheran who aren’t going anywhere.
Minor is good, not great.
Lowe is good, but expensive.
Medlen is good, but coming off TJ.
Hudson will retire as a brave most likely.
Beachy still isn’t considered to be good(in other clubs eyes… yet), especially with his injury.
JJ would net us the biggest return of those available, which is why I think a lot of people consider him to be the most tradeable asset. Now if we can move Beachy, Minor, Lowe, great! But then we are left with:
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Medlen
Teheran
With delegado and others starting in AAA.
Also, people seemed to be sold on Pastronicky, I just don’t see it yet. Also, with the FA market for SS’s being thin (Reyes, Furcal, Gonzo, and JJ Hardy are the big names), Gonzo probably would get a pay raise and longer deal elsewhere.
by murph35 on May 31, 2011 3:18 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
"Smackeroos" is a funny word.
LIVE EDT
Tape-delayed for the West Coast
by TheLetter2 on May 31, 2011 4:42 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
Sell the farm for Justin Upton
Not kidding at all.
We could watch him and Heyward put up 300/400/500 seasons well into their primes together.
I am the greatest, I said that even before I knew I was. - Muhammad Ali
How do I feel? Like f**king sucess - Jordan Schafer
Oh how I wish
Trade:
Delgado
JJ
Harrichak
Myke Jones
For:
Justin Upton
We add in Schafer and Hoover and they throw in Chris Young. Then we would have an outfield!
"Melky is a runs producer" -Dayton Moore (Royals GM)
Follow me @Alex7Deal
by BravosFanatic on Jun 1, 2011 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions
Harrichak probably has no value at all. I want to keep Jones but if it gets someone like Upton I’m all for trading him. Delgado and JJ too in the deal? Isn’t that a bit much.
If JJ keeps this season up, he will WIN the Cy young.
I would do this deal:
Lowe (Would have to eat $ on his deal)
Minor
Delgado
Jones
Bethancourt
If you do that deal, you still have Spruill, Vizzy, Hoover,Clemens, Perez, Olberholtzer and still have Beachy,Medlen,Teheran.
by PhuckthePhillies on Jun 1, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Minor, Delgado, Jones and Bethancourt is a hell of a lot of talent to be included in a trade, which is obviously necessary in this case (hypothetical trade offers for Justin Upton), but I also don’t think that the Diamondbacks would even bother with Derek Lowe. They have no need to. He’s old and signed for one year after this one, and they’re a young team that needs to rebuild. If they’re going to trade the player they were supposed to build around, they’re not going to take 38 year old pitchers in return.
Also, I think the Diamondbacks are a team that would be more interested Minor as they’re not that close to contending and Minor is much further from free agency than Jurrjens. If we trade Jurrjens, we’ll trade him to a team that wants to win right now, which isn’t impossible. Look at the Cliff Lee trades, C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay and so on.
One last comment, even if a trade involving Jair Jurrjens brought back only prospects and not an actual solution to one of the holes on our big league club, ala Justin Upton, it would at least bring us the prospects with which to make a deal like that. Or it would give us prospects to replenish our system after trading away the farm for Justin Upton. This is an amazing position to be in, because we can send away a package of minor leaguers for an All Star caliber player, then trade away our own All Star caliber player and receive a similar return for him. We really can have anything we want on the trade market.
The only thing stopping us is an idiot GM who will refuse to listen to any offer not including Julio Teheran. Unfortunately for us, the Diamondbacks GM is an idiot.
This is my corn. You people are guests in my corn.
I would kind of like to invest more money into the farm.
I feel like there are always some unsignable good players that fall in the draft. If we spent the money to sign these guys… our Farm system would be really dirty. Even with all these young players we already have…
I’m not sure a star player is available unless we spend an incredulous amount of money. We’ve been great at drafting great talent, let’s keep doing just that, and then we could keep even more of the great talent we draft.
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