FanPost

Reds vs Braves, Simulation Results (May 28th)

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Braves using the actual lineups.  In this exercise I assumed that all bullpen pitchers were available.  I do not follow either of these teams especially closely so hopefully all the bullpen pitchers are on the active roster.  If there are one or two mistakes it really makes little difference in the end reseults..  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.   Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 1:30 PM PDT)

Vis Pitcher Home Pitcher Vegas Favorite Vegas Win% Vegas O/U Sim Fave Win% Sim O/U
Bronson Arroyo Derek Lowe Braves 58.76% 7.5 54.06% 6.96


Reds Hitting Stats

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Drew Stubbs 4.405 1.151 0.782 0.234 0.027 0.107 0.335 0.341 1.341 0.314
Brandon Phillips 4.318 1.175 0.816 0.247 0.021 0.092 0.357 0.276 0.724 0.316
Joey Votto 3.999 1.232 0.774 0.293 0.025 0.139 0.489 0.584 0.892 0.391
Scott Rolen 4.173 1.152 0.7 0.34 0.018 0.093 0.51 0.279 0.861 0.329
Jay Bruce 3.997 1.016 0.649 0.194 0.014 0.16 0.536 0.391 1.113 0.328
Jonny Gomes 3.884 0.956 0.601 0.218 0.008 0.13 0.458 0.349 1.125 0.314
Edgar Renteria 3.841 1.036 0.687 0.264 0.031 0.055 0.369 0.283 0.858 0.316
Ryan Hanigan 3.641 0.91 0.666 0.184 0.004 0.056 0.338 0.38 0.895 0.303
Pitchers Spot 3.778 0.445 0.363 0.069 0.003 0.01 0.138 0.142 1.968 0.138


Braves Hitting Stats

NameABHitsH1H2H3HRRBIBBSOwOBA
Jordan Schafer 4.275 1.114 0.714 0.275 0.062 0.062 0.268 0.309 0.623 0.311
Martin Prado 4.097 1.221 0.823 0.254 0.01 0.134 0.405 0.295 0.549 0.352
Chipper Jones 3.867 1.103 0.635 0.335 0.019 0.114 0.439 0.472 0.572 0.364
Brian McCann 3.794 1.012 0.665 0.23 0.008 0.11 0.463 0.505 0.617 0.343
Eric Hinske 3.771 1.029 0.614 0.229 0.011 0.175 0.595 0.429 0.704 0.358
Dan Uggla 3.683 0.955 0.569 0.223 0.021 0.141 0.507 0.346 0.699 0.334
Freddie Freeman 3.563 0.909 0.598 0.198 0.01 0.103 0.404 0.402 0.658 0.325
Alex Gonzalez 3.603 0.892 0.56 0.21 0.027 0.096 0.4 0.197 0.6 0.298
Pitchers Spot 3.549 0.499 0.405 0.077 0.004 0.012 0.149 0.15 1.305 0.162



Reds Pitching Stats

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Bronson Arroyo 6.002 3.819 2.039 6.242 0.702 94.087 4.468
Francisco Cordero 0.439 0.391 0.143 0.38 0.034 6.78 3.413
Nick Masset 0.424 0.441 0.162 0.355 0.038 6.742 3.426
Logan Ondrusek 0.683 0.592 0.253 0.623 0.061 10.784 3.737
Bill Bray 0.378 0.324 0.137 0.332 0.027 5.905 3.489
Jose Arredondo 0.582 0.505 0.271 0.533 0.052 9.485 4.024
Sam LeCure 0.276 0.241 0.092 0.252 0.031 4.311 3.934
Daryl Thompson 0.018 0.013 0.008 0.016 0.002 0.282 4.361


Braves Pitching Stats

NameIPSOBBHitsHRPCFIP
Derek Lowe 6.251 6.201 1.867 6.317 0.616 99.739 3.394
Craig Kimbrel 0.459 0.78 0.155 0.273 0.014 7.329 1.217
Jonny Venters 0.467 0.564 0.17 0.395 0.014 7.519 2.263
Eric O'Flaherty 0.753 0.803 0.254 0.718 0.049 12.121 2.926
Scott Linebrink 0.388 0.408 0.124 0.405 0.062 6.316 4.139
George Sherrill 0.74 0.807 0.343 0.71 0.061 12.433 3.475
Scott Proctor 0.233 0.206 0.109 0.245 0.024 3.916 4.152
Cristhian Martinez 0.01 0.009 0.003 0.01 0.001 0.159 3.627

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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