I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Reds and the Braves using the actual lineups. In this exercise I assumed that all bullpen pitchers were available. I do not follow either of these teams especially closely so hopefully all the bullpen pitchers are on the active roster. If there are one or two mistakes it really makes little difference in the end reseults.. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 1:30 PM PDT)
Vis Pitcher | Home Pitcher | Vegas Favorite | Vegas Win% | Vegas O/U | Sim Fave Win% | Sim O/U |
Bronson Arroyo | Derek Lowe | Braves | 58.76% | 7.5 | 54.06% | 6.96 |
Reds Hitting Stats
Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | BB | SO | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Drew Stubbs | 4.405 | 1.151 | 0.782 | 0.234 | 0.027 | 0.107 | 0.335 | 0.341 | 1.341 | 0.314 |
Brandon Phillips | 4.318 | 1.175 | 0.816 | 0.247 | 0.021 | 0.092 | 0.357 | 0.276 | 0.724 | 0.316 |
Joey Votto | 3.999 | 1.232 | 0.774 | 0.293 | 0.025 | 0.139 | 0.489 | 0.584 | 0.892 | 0.391 |
Scott Rolen | 4.173 | 1.152 | 0.7 | 0.34 | 0.018 | 0.093 | 0.51 | 0.279 | 0.861 | 0.329 |
Jay Bruce | 3.997 | 1.016 | 0.649 | 0.194 | 0.014 | 0.16 | 0.536 | 0.391 | 1.113 | 0.328 |
Jonny Gomes | 3.884 | 0.956 | 0.601 | 0.218 | 0.008 | 0.13 | 0.458 | 0.349 | 1.125 | 0.314 |
Edgar Renteria | 3.841 | 1.036 | 0.687 | 0.264 | 0.031 | 0.055 | 0.369 | 0.283 | 0.858 | 0.316 |
Ryan Hanigan | 3.641 | 0.91 | 0.666 | 0.184 | 0.004 | 0.056 | 0.338 | 0.38 | 0.895 | 0.303 |
Pitchers Spot | 3.778 | 0.445 | 0.363 | 0.069 | 0.003 | 0.01 | 0.138 | 0.142 | 1.968 | 0.138 |
Braves Hitting Stats
Name | AB | Hits | H1 | H2 | H3 | HR | RBI | BB | SO | wOBA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jordan Schafer | 4.275 | 1.114 | 0.714 | 0.275 | 0.062 | 0.062 | 0.268 | 0.309 | 0.623 | 0.311 |
Martin Prado | 4.097 | 1.221 | 0.823 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 0.134 | 0.405 | 0.295 | 0.549 | 0.352 |
Chipper Jones | 3.867 | 1.103 | 0.635 | 0.335 | 0.019 | 0.114 | 0.439 | 0.472 | 0.572 | 0.364 |
Brian McCann | 3.794 | 1.012 | 0.665 | 0.23 | 0.008 | 0.11 | 0.463 | 0.505 | 0.617 | 0.343 |
Eric Hinske | 3.771 | 1.029 | 0.614 | 0.229 | 0.011 | 0.175 | 0.595 | 0.429 | 0.704 | 0.358 |
Dan Uggla | 3.683 | 0.955 | 0.569 | 0.223 | 0.021 | 0.141 | 0.507 | 0.346 | 0.699 | 0.334 |
Freddie Freeman | 3.563 | 0.909 | 0.598 | 0.198 | 0.01 | 0.103 | 0.404 | 0.402 | 0.658 | 0.325 |
Alex Gonzalez | 3.603 | 0.892 | 0.56 | 0.21 | 0.027 | 0.096 | 0.4 | 0.197 | 0.6 | 0.298 |
Pitchers Spot | 3.549 | 0.499 | 0.405 | 0.077 | 0.004 | 0.012 | 0.149 | 0.15 | 1.305 | 0.162 |
Reds Pitching Stats
Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bronson Arroyo | 6.002 | 3.819 | 2.039 | 6.242 | 0.702 | 94.087 | 4.468 |
Francisco Cordero | 0.439 | 0.391 | 0.143 | 0.38 | 0.034 | 6.78 | 3.413 |
Nick Masset | 0.424 | 0.441 | 0.162 | 0.355 | 0.038 | 6.742 | 3.426 |
Logan Ondrusek | 0.683 | 0.592 | 0.253 | 0.623 | 0.061 | 10.784 | 3.737 |
Bill Bray | 0.378 | 0.324 | 0.137 | 0.332 | 0.027 | 5.905 | 3.489 |
Jose Arredondo | 0.582 | 0.505 | 0.271 | 0.533 | 0.052 | 9.485 | 4.024 |
Sam LeCure | 0.276 | 0.241 | 0.092 | 0.252 | 0.031 | 4.311 | 3.934 |
Daryl Thompson | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.016 | 0.002 | 0.282 | 4.361 |
Braves Pitching Stats
Name | IP | SO | BB | Hits | HR | PC | FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derek Lowe | 6.251 | 6.201 | 1.867 | 6.317 | 0.616 | 99.739 | 3.394 |
Craig Kimbrel | 0.459 | 0.78 | 0.155 | 0.273 | 0.014 | 7.329 | 1.217 |
Jonny Venters | 0.467 | 0.564 | 0.17 | 0.395 | 0.014 | 7.519 | 2.263 |
Eric O'Flaherty | 0.753 | 0.803 | 0.254 | 0.718 | 0.049 | 12.121 | 2.926 |
Scott Linebrink | 0.388 | 0.408 | 0.124 | 0.405 | 0.062 | 6.316 | 4.139 |
George Sherrill | 0.74 | 0.807 | 0.343 | 0.71 | 0.061 | 12.433 | 3.475 |
Scott Proctor | 0.233 | 0.206 | 0.109 | 0.245 | 0.024 | 3.916 | 4.152 |
Cristhian Martinez | 0.01 | 0.009 | 0.003 | 0.01 | 0.001 | 0.159 | 3.627 |