OT: Where might Pujols land?
by jack dein on May 22, 2011 3:18 PM EDT
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PrintI know this isn't Braves related but with Pujols set to become maybe the biggest free agent ever I thought it might be interesting to examine possible landing spots for him.
I don't think Pujols will be willing to play for a team that he will have to DH a majority of the time. I also think that at this point in his career he is predominatly a 1B. He hasn't played significant time at any other position since 2003 when he played 113 games in LF. I also think his outfield days are behind him.
AL East:
Boston: They already have Adrian Gonzalez who is only 29 yrs old and signed through 2018.
New York: Teixeira signed a 8 year $180M contract before last season.
Tampa Bay: The Rays could use him but don't have the money.
Baltimore: The Orioles have used Derek Lee at 1B mostly. They could use an upgrade and put in a decent offer to Teixeira last year but its doubtful they would have the money.
Toronto: Adam Lind has played the majority of the games and has pretty good so its unlikely they would have much interest.
AL Central
Chicago: Konerko has been very good and is signed through 2013.
Cleveland: LaPorta hasn't been great but they don't have the money to even consider it.
Kansas City: Could kinda be considered a dark horse being that he is from Kansas City but they have some decent players at 1B already and don't have the money.
Detroit: Money really isn't an issue but they already have Cabrera and he is just as good.
Minnesota: Small market team that wagered their future on Mauer, plus they have Morneau.
AL West
Texas: Currently using Mitch Mooreland who is decent but not great. Have shown they have money to spend and could be a dark horse.
LA Angels: They have a young Trumbo currently holding the position and he's been alright and they also expect Morales back next year, but Pujols would be a great addition. They have missed out the last two years on Teixeira and Crawford so this could be their big splash.
Oakland: This team has been pretty bad offensively and Barton isn't helping that. With that being said they have no where near the money.
Seattle: This team has struggled offensively with their offense since they moved into SafeCo but Justin Smoak hasn't really been part of the problem this year.
NL East
Philadelphia: Probably have the money but they also already have Howard.
Atlanta: Could we use him? Sure. Do we have they money? No.
Florida: They don't have the money plus they already have a fine young 1B in Gaby Sanchez. I do however give them a 1% chance for one reason. They are moving into a new home soon and Pujols would sell out for quite awhile.
NY Mets: No one is really sure how they financials are going to work out, plus they already have Ike Davis.
Washington: LaRoche has sucked this year and they seem to be interested in every FA out there. Not sure how much money they'll have after signing Werth last year.
NL Central:
Cincinnati: Already have Votto.
Milwaukee: They'll first try to resign Fielder and if they can't do that then they surely don't have the money for Pujols.
Pittsburgh: Overbay has been pretty good this year. Signing a expensive FA should be far from their mind.
Chicago: Pena has been pretty awful this year. They have proven that they have money to spend and getting Pujols would be a huge move for them.
Houston: Team is up for sale and they already have a decent 1B in Brett Wallace.
NL West
San Francisco: Huff has been part of their problems this year and he's signed to a moveable contract. Still unlikely landing spot.
Colorado: Helton is past his prime but is having a good year. Another team though that doesn't have the money.
Arizona: Team with many issues but 1B isn't one of them.
LA Dodgers: Outside of St. Louis this is probably the best place for him to go. However with the divorce and them having no money its a zero chance, but if a new ownership takes over and wants to spend money this becomes a likely spot.
San Diego: Hawpe hasn't been good but they couldn't afford to keep Gonzalez so signign Pujols probably isn't going to happen.
Basically Pujols do to his price tag and other teams not really needing a 1B his options are down to about 3 or 4 teams.
He'll take a discount to stay in St. Louis because he is so loved there and his home is close by. Outside of St. Louis I see the Angels and Cubs as being strong bidders and if new ownership takes over the Dodgers I'm sure they would jump into it as well.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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So it seems...
Baltimore, Texas, Angels, Cubs, and Nats imo.
With the odds going Cards, then Cubs, then Rangers, then Angels/Nats/Os.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I read a rumor around the end of ST that St Louis would try to get MLB approval to divert part of his salary into a fund to give him an ownership stake in the team after he retires. I think Pujols will be lifetime Cardinal.
"Bunting's my favorite." Fredi G
Other than St Louis
I’d say Cubs or Texas. Both have the money and like to spend. I really think St Louis is the only place for him though.
But Pujols in the Texas offense would just be straight filthy…
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on May 22, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions
I agree
Kinsler 2b
Young DH
Pujols 1b
Hamilton LF
Beltre 3b
Cruz RF
Andrus SS
Napoli C
Bourbon CF
That lineup would be silly.
Video-game silly
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
Some of your takes are just flat bad
LaPorta has been quite solid in Cleveland this year. Nothing amazing, but he’s been steady on offense and defense, showing flashes of the power he was expected to hit for. They won’t be looking elsewhere soon.
Minnesota has a higher payroll than the Braves, they’re not small market anymore. They’re also removing major salary from the payroll for 2012. If Morneau can’t make it back, they could go for the two-superstars-and-nothing role.
Barton provides exactly what the A’s desire, high OBP and defense better than anyone else in the league at the position. They don’t expect more than that.
The Dodgers have good talent at the position in Loney (who is mightily overrated anywhere but with a glove in hand) and Jerry Sands.
The Giants wouldn’t be interested because of Brandon Belt. It has nothing to do with Huff.
-—————————————
Top spots for Pujols:
1. St. Louis
2. Cubs
3. Texas
4. Washington
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
Never said LaPorta was bad. However you have to look at who’s going to be able to pay Pujols the $25M+ a season that he’s going to command and the Indians can’t.
Minnesota really strapped themselves by signing Mauer. I know some people who know the Twins much better than I do and they all have said that they have zero payroll flexibility.
I don’t consider a .214/.328/.283 line to be good at all. Good defense or not that is awful for a 1B.
Loney is good defensively but has been awful hitting this year. Sands has only played 14 innings at 1B this year, but does have 90 games there in the minors. However he’s not hitting either.
Belt is in the minors because he wasn’t hitting.
Your "Twins" friends
Really don’t know the team. At all. I can reference multiple Twins employees that will back that statement up. I did an internship in college with the Twins, and I have a lot of contacts still in the organization.
What you are conveniently forgetting with your “dissing” of guys like Barton, Belt, and Sands is that you’re not talking about a one-year rental. Those guys are the futures for their teams, despite how they’re playing this year. Pujols will require his team to basically put aside anyone else playing 1B for the team for the next 5-10 years with his contract he signs. That knocks the Dodgers and Giants out because they have their guy of the future already, same with the Royals who have a very solid 1B and DH already, so nowhere to put Pujols as a “darkhorse”.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 22, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions
...and with Barton
.273/.393/.405 while leading the AL in walks last season. He’s off to a rough start this year, but he’s still walking at a high rate with a .260 BABIP (he’s hit for .295 in his career, so he’s experiencing a measure of bad luck right now).
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 22, 2011 10:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Morneau hasn’t been that good to start the year but he is signed for $14M next season.
I really don’t know why your making an argument for teams that don’t have the money sign him anyway.
If you looked at the teams that I said were most likely they were St. Louis, Anaheim, and the Cubs.
Anaheim is a poor choice
Unless they do some contract/player unloading, that is.
Morales is a high average, good power hitter who is still under team control, with a likely decrease in his pay to about 2.75M next season after missing this year. Trumbo is the perfect two true outcomes type of player who will either put the ball over the fence or be sitting on his butt, but that has some value. The biggest thing you overlook with the Angels is their finances. They currently are running a $141M opening day salary pool, which is about $5M more than the owner wanted to push this season to, but the team overreacted when they struck out on Werth and Crawford, and they jumped on board with Vernon Wells. For 2012, they already have $80+M in salary minimum obligations. They’ll likely buy out Kazmir, pickup Abreu’s option, let Fernando Rodney walk, and the jury’s still out on Joel Pineiro depending on how they feel about their young pitching. Their arbitration numbers are likely going to add another $30M with big names (Weaver, Hendrick, Aybar, Morales) all up for arby. Add in another 10 or so players at minimum-ish wages for another $4.5M. The team now sits at roughly $125 million payroll with a cap that they were hoping to stick to of $135-140. If they’re going to spend $10-$15 million, Pujols isn’t an option. A weighed contract with Fielder may be possible, but definitely not Pujols. Regardless, they’ll be much wiser to sink their cash in pitching, which is why they’re often mentioned as a possible trade partner with the Braves because of their obvious pitching need after Weaver/Haren. There are some solid bats out there in FA next season, but I see them much more likely to add a $10-15M player like a Prince Fielder or Aramis Ramirez that would fit their payroll better.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions
The management of Anaheim’s finances are a joke. They’ve added high priced players with question marks (Kazmir and Wells) and they haven’t worked out.
I still think that if they had around $15M to spend the ownership would be willing to expand that to get Pujols. It also depends on how well Trumbo plays the rest of the season. At this point I don’t think you can rely on Morales playing next year. He was supposed to be ready for this season and now he’s missing all of it. If he is ready for 2012 he’ll be around a year and a half removed from his last plate appearence.
Angels finances
They are in a rough spot, though I could see where they could open up some cash if they think Trout is ready by declining Abreu’s option for $9M. Kazmir is already out of the figure I mentioned, but they’re stuck with Wells for a while. I was also pretty conservative on the arby raises I projected for their eligible guys as I projected very slight increases for Hendrick and Aybar and only about a $5M jump for Weaver. He very well could go past $15M in arbitration next year if the Angels don’t lock him up long-term before that. That would eat away even further at that number I mentioned. I just don’t see the value to the Angels of Pujols. Fielder has big draw for them if they do go after a 1B because he’s a lefty power hitter, and their offense right now is very RH heavy (which Pujols is as well). Fielder would also profile best somewhere he could DH often to cover his mediocre defense, while Trumbo and Morales are both considered at least league average, if not above average, defenders. I just see Pujols as basically looking at a three-horse race of St. Louis, Cubs, and Texas.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 1:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Twins
They have been spending more than the Braves the last two seasons, by nearly $20M this year, so it’s not like they’re in trouble financially, and their stadium brought in hundreds of millions in profit revenues in just 2010.
Right now, they have $65M in contract obligations for 2012. As it sits currently, they may look to move three or all four of their impending free agents during the season (Thome, Cuddyer, Capps, and Kubel), as Kubel or Cuddyer (at a HUGE discount in price) would be resigned, not both, and certainly not Thome or Capps. Delmon Young is a likely non-tender candidate if they cannot trade him. Their arbitration eligibles for 2012 are Liriano, Slowey, Casilla, Perkins, Repko, Mijares, Tolbert, and Hoey. I would not be surprised if they non-tendered and/or traded 4 or more of that list. Their likely arby numbers even with keeping all 8 would be around $14M, so they’re at $79M. Add in 7-8 minimum guys and you’re at $3M more, so $82M. They will have room to play this coming offseason if they’d like.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I know the Twins offense hasn’t been great this season but they really need to address their pitching. I think they may work on adding 1 or 2 starting pitchers first and then see how much they have to spend. $20M sounds like a lot but if they add 1 SP at $10M and tinker with bench and bullpen players that money is gone. Right now I think their a team that’s more than 1 good player away from winning. If their payroll is at $82M heading into the offseason they will have to be willing to offer Pujols just under $30M per season to come there. That is a massive contract obligation when you already have a very expensive Mauer who hasn’t been able to stay healthy.
Also since you seem to know more about the Twins then I do is there any truth to the rumors that they may move Mauer to 1B to help keep him healthy.
Not 1B
Most likely destination for Mauer is LF. That will be after they move Delmon either in season or after the season. The Twins have some very solid minor league bats coming for RF/1B/CF, so Mauer would profile best into LF long-term, and once the Twins do move him off C, they have no desire to move him again, so they want to find him a position and have it be his long-term.
While the entire team has been putrid, their pitching hasn’t been their biggest downfall. Their offense has, but primarily because of injuries (and Morneaus’s slow recovery). They still currently have 6 major-league calibar starting pitchers, one of the best major-league ready starters in the minors in Kyle Gibson, and their best reliever this season is even a starting pitcher who’s being converted this season to relief. They do need some big help in relief, but they would have the option of not picking up Joe Nathan in 2012 and pursuing the relief market heavy, which includes some very big names this offseason. I’m not sure Pujols would be their wisest decision, but it isn’t necessarily finances that would hold them back from it, it’s needs in other areas where they’re not getting return on the money they’ve already spent at this point.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with the conclusion (mostly), but not some of the specifics.
For one, by saying that Overbay has been playing well for the Pirates, all you are saying is that you don’t follow the Pirates at all. He has sucked (.230/.293/.362). Not that I am a Pirates fan, but I have him in a very deep fantasy league, and trust me, he sucks. That being said, the Pirates won’t be suitors because Alvarez will end up at 1B (with Rendon at 3B?) sooner or later and they don’t have the money anyway.
I don’t see the Angels involved; their payroll is pretty high already and Morales/Trumbo is fine.
I doubt the Rangers get involved either—-they might spend, but if they do, it should and would be on pitching. Never can count them out, however.
The Cubs and Cardinals are the obvious suitors. That they are long-time rivals makes the whole scenario more fascinating. I see the Orioles and Nats (who do have the money) as the most likely wildcards.
That all being said, I think the most likely outcome is that the Cardinals resign Pujols in the small window they have before other teams can negotiate with him.
I agree with all of this
I would put the likelihood of going to the Rangers above the Nats and Orioles just because I think they’d have more likelihood of making a move like that, but I do agree that if you want true “darkhorse” types, those two fit the bill quite well.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 10:19 AM EDT up reply actions
My bet is the Cubs or Texas
with a darkhorse being the Yankees. Before you laugh, hear me out. They have Tex at 1B, sure, and they also have A-Rod at 3B. Tex came up as a 3B, and Pujols played there in 2002, I believe. Do you honestly believe the Yankees wouldn’t attempt to land him, and shuttle the 3 of them between 1st, 3rd and DH? I wouldn’t put it past Brian Cashman, nor Hank Steinbrenner, and it’s not like they can’t print out another 200 million for him. That said, I don’t expect it.
He would be a great fit in Chicago or Texas. Both of them have the money, and both have a need at 1B. My vote goes to Texas, simply because of the DH. If Albert is getting a 7, 8, 9 or 10 year deal, at the end of that contract, he’ll be useless in the field.
CEO and Founder of the Hire Bill Cowher for 2012 Bandwagon.
Pack your bags, TS and JI.
Bring him to Atlanta to play 3B next season.
Although, I’m pretty sure he will resign with St. Lewis.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 23, 2011 12:21 PM EDT reply actions
Wow.
I didn’t know a relatively obscure river in Newfoundland and Labrador even had a baseball team!
Yup!
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on May 23, 2011 5:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Toronto and Baltimore...
Will both be in the running, if there is a running. Both teams have the capital and owners to make something like that happen. Remember, Angelos was the man who insisted on making Albert Belle the highest paid man in baseball for the second time.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have a history of signing big contracts, although they’ve been lucky to escape the last two (Rios and Wells). It’s crazy to think they could be paying those two $35MM this season, if they hadn’t moved on to other teams. They have the money, and Lind is nothing compared to what Pujols/Bautista could be…AL East game-changer right there.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Just curious
How much of the Vernon wells contract are they paying for right now? I would be very surprised if the angels took that whole contract
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on May 23, 2011 5:59 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Blue Jays pay the signing bonus and $5M this year
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on May 23, 2011 6:19 PM EDT up reply actions
They got off very light...
Angels are paying at least $104MM thru 2014…unless he opts out, which would be incredibly stupid on his part.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Wow
The Angels were that desperate that they were willing to pay Vernon Wells that much? Regardless of the fact that they ultimately only got Frank Francisco out of the deal, the Blue Jays win that one
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on May 23, 2011 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Pelican
CEO and Founder of the Hire Bill Cowher for 2012 Bandwagon.
Pack your bags, TS and JI.
by DolphinNation on May 24, 2011 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions
One thing that would help convince Albert to stay in St. Louis would be winning another world series. I still think that the Cards should go all out and do what it takes to get Jose Reyes. Think about it.
Reyes
Rasmus
Albert
Holliday
Berkman
That’d be the best 1-5 in baseball. They should do that AND try to get Heath Bell.
Did they borrow New York's mint machine?
Maybe they found one of those somewhere…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on May 26, 2011 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions
you’re right… If they were to land both in July, it would be around $9.5MM for in salary for the rest of the year. That’s a ton. And they’d have to give up a lot of prospects to get both guys. AND it would only be a one year shot… But wouldn’t that make them the favorites to win the NL pennant this year?
No, it wouldn't.
A lineup with Utley, Howard, Rollins, a healthy Victorino, Polanco, Ruiz, Ibanez, Dom Brown backed with Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels in the rotation would blow them out of the water “on paper”. Atlanta’s pitching would blow them out of the water. Their bullpen gets a lot of notice because it’s confuddling fantasy owners, but their rotation is simply not that convincingly good. Seriously, Carpenter is pitching as a shell of himself in velocity and precision, and Garcia is getting away with it right now, but his stuff always looks like it’s just about to get blown up. After that you have Lohse, McClellan, etc. Do those guys scare you? Even a little bit?
"Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results."
— Albert Einstein
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on May 26, 2011 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
?
getting those two would mean that
Shelby Miller
Zach Cox
Christian Martinez
would all be other places. While they MIGHT win this year, the Cards would set the franchise back 3-5 years doing that. Plus, Reyes won’t stay (no $ for the Cards to get him with) and Bell would also only be a rental.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on May 28, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
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