Braves Graph Of The Week: A Look At The Bullpen
by Jacob Peterson on May 10, 2011 3:10 PM EDT
Email
PrintOverall, the Braves have gotten a total WPA of +.810 from their bullpen this year. (The average WPA is 0.) That works out to an average (mean) WPA of +.008 (+0.8%) per outing, with a median of +.022 (+2.2%). So, overall, the bullpen has clearly helped the team.
The league average Good/Bad Ratio (which is just the number of games with a WPA of at least +.010 divided by the number of games with a WPA of less than –.010) is 2.40. The Braves bullpen's overall Good/Bad Ratio is 2.91 (64 / 22), so they've been above-average by that measure, too.
Click chart to enlarge. For a primer on WPA (win probability added) go here.
Jonny Venters has been one of the best relievers in baseball. His total WPA of 1.375 is the 3rd-highest in MLB, and his total of 16 games with a WPA of at least +.010 is tied for the most in MLB. He's also only had one bad game, which is remarkable considering the high-leverage situations in which he's been used. Eric O'Flaherty has also been excellent.
Craig Kimbrel has been hot-and-cold. I have a feeling his end-of-year numbers will look quite a bit better than this.
By WPA anyway, George Sherrill has been surprisingly effective. He got off to a bad start, with two negative-WPA games in his first 4 appearances. Since then, though, he hasn't had a bad outing. The degree of difficulty of his outings, however, has been very low: he's been used sparingly, and twice was brought in to face only the opposing pitcher. Still, he's hardly been a disaster. It's probably unfair to lump Sherrill in with Scott Linebrink, who really has been ineffective.
You can really see the team's need for another right-handed reliever. Peter Moylan (who may not pitch again this year) is the only RH reliever with a positive overall WPA. All the others--even Kimbrel--have hurt the team's win chances more than they've helped so far.
The Braves' total WPA from their lefty relievers is +2.344 (+.048 per outing), but their total WPA from their righty relievers is –1.532 (–.027 per outing). Using medians instead of means, the gap is smaller but still noticeable: +.029 for lefties and +.009 for righties.
It's still a small sample, of course, and both Venters and O'Flaherty have the ability to get right-handed batters out. It is a cause for concern, though. If one of the young righties does not step up (Cory Gearrin, Jairo Asencio, or perhaps Juan Abreu), the Braves will likely be in the market for another righty setup man.
36 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Good stuff.
Really hope Frank Wren is calling around about right-handed relievers.
"This is gonna feel so good getting this thing off my chest. That's what she said."
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
WPA's a harsh mistress indeed
It was really the St. Louis series that seriously tanked the Braves’ overall bullpen WPA, in those last two games of April, where Kimbrel blew a save and took a loss, and Jonny Venters blew a save of his own. Going into the series, Kimbrel was a +0.275, with Venters well over +1.000. Naturally there were some high-leverage situations that really dinged both of them pretty hard, with Kimbrel taking it even worse, but even considering such, it says something about the overall performance when the end result is still WPA numbers this positive.
No wonder nobody likes you, Tuttle... everything's a (Pujols) damn debate.
WPA is particularly harsh
on closers and other high-leverage guys. If you come in with a lead, the WPA downside is much larger than the upside. That’s why non-mop-up guys usually need at least a 2:1 good/bad ratio just to break even on WPA. Craig’s had more than his share of meltdowns, but I’m guessing that will even out as the year goes on and he racks up more good outings.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 10, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Amazing as always
But what’s new. I think the braves may hold off on a trade for a right handed reliever unless it’s incredibly low cost, because they will set up to have a great playoff pen with all the starting depth. Dave Cameron seems to think Teheran will be in the bullpen at the end of the year a la David price, and we should have medlen then, as well as whoever our fifth best rotation starter is (or beachy even if he’s better than some others since he’s inexperienced and we may try to limit his innings towards the end of the year a bit. Plus I guess Delgado or even arodys could make a decent bullpen arm for the stretch run.
by eyy on May 10, 2011 3:37 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Good points.
In particular, the one about Medlen being available later in the year. He could be our ace (well, good setup guy) in the hole if he’s 100%. I think there’s a decent chance we see Teheran and/or Minor in the ‘pen as well, come the end of the year, but it’s hard to predict how they’ll do in a relief role.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 10, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm not as crazy as some here think
From Fangraphs chat yesterday
Comment From Jared
How about when Teheran will be called up for good and not just a spot start?
Dave Cameron: He’ll be up as a reliever later this summer. The Braves have the deepest rotation in baseball and have no need for another starter.
Comment From John
Do you think any of the Braves’ current starting rotation is dealt at some point in the season? If so, who do you think has the highest chance of being traded?
Dave Cameron: Nope. You need five starters in the regular season, and you can’t expect them all to stay healthy for the full season. The Braves should keep the group together, and if they’re all healthy in October, then you have a fantastic pitcher to add to the bullpen. If they shift Teheran to the pen for the stretch run as well, their 1-8 staff in October is going to be CRAZY.
And from David Schoenfield in ESPN
I watched Teheran’s start against the Phillies on Saturday and he showed the nice, easy motion and good stuff that got him to the majors at 20 years of age. He didn’t have great command, however, and Ryan Howard tattooed one low fastball for a home run. Teheran is headed back to Triple-A after the spot start, but I suspect he’ll be back sometime this season, maybe even as a reliever down the stretch if the Braves don’t need him in the rotation. A good sign: A scene from the TV broadcast showed him listening intently in the dugout as Jair Jurrjens discussed a few things with him — probably something about not pitching Ryan Howard low and in.
Linebrink, Martinez and Sherril are 3 roster spots wasted, plus Conrad and Mather in the bench.
If there is no injury in the rotation, Teheran could/should be the 7th inning guy this year. Ascencio the mop up and Minor should replace Sherrill.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 10, 2011 3:45 PM EDT reply actions
What you STILL don't get is...
later this summer
If they shift Teheran to the pen for the stretch run as well, their 1-8 staff in October is going to be CRAZY.
Notice the time associated with the move. Late in the summer (FYI, summer doesn’t begin until late June, so late summer is September) and October are the time frames used. No one disagrees with those time frames.
However, you proposed bringing them into the bullpen now, which is moronic and wasteful.
If we do actually bring the kids up into the bullpen, there’s still going to be a price. You should probably only bring them into the game at the beginning of the inning, for instance, because they’re not used to entering the game with runners already on the bases. It’s not easy to make that transition, which you’d be asking them to do in games during May, June, July, and so forth.
All so they can finish this season with 1/3 of the innings they need to prepare themselves for starting in the future…
What you said =/= what they said.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
It seems you didn’t read my replies, because I’ve been saying over and over, they should be called up when their Super 2 status is gone, around mid June.
And the “adjusting for the bullpen” excuse is crap. Any good starter can handle being a reliever. Most great relievers were crappy starters (Rivera, Nathan, Gagne, etc)
And it’s not moronic and wasteful if the team ends up losing a playoff berth by one or two games because Linebrink, Sherril or Martinez blow more games than what’s acceptable.
Which is what’s going to happen because those 3 guys suck and Fredo can’t keep using EOF, Venters and Kimbrel everyday.
by Alvaro Andres Pizza Varela on May 10, 2011 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Mid-June is still way too early. They’re still going to get 1/3 of the innings they need, they still have to adjust, and the idea is still moronic.
Mid-June =/= September/October. You’d literally fuck them for next season and beyond by bringing them up early. They need innings.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Beachy?
Beachy probably doesn’t need a lot of innings this year, so would it be a good way to save his arm (instead of taking a risk ala Medlen) to bring up Minor (or Teheran) in June or July, and let Beachy move to the bullpen? Beachy joins Kimbrel and Venters as strong young pieces at the back, and you don’t risk putting the same amount of innings on his arm this year as he’s had in his entire 3 year career before this season. Assuming Minor is ready by then, I think that might be a workable version of AAVP’s theory.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Beachy won the job over Minor in ST. To switch them would be extraordinarily counter-productive in the long run, unless a demotion is warranted.
That would be like your boss giving you a promotion and then taking it away five months later even though you were kicking ass at your new job.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Except that your boss took the job away because you started falling asleep during the day due to the extended hours, your wife was about to leave you because you come home exhausted all the time. Meanwhile, Mikey in the cube next to you is single and only been working part-time hours, plus he’s just as qualified for the job as you are.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on May 10, 2011 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
That analogy makes no sense whatsoever, unless you expect Beachy to exhaust himself. If he does, that’s inherently covered by my mention of a warranted demotion.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Yeah, I guess I didn’t read the string thoroughly enough. Statement retracted.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on May 10, 2011 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions
But as I said...
it’s no a “demotion” move, as much as it’s protective. We just had a career reliever who began to excel as a starter, and the increased workload led to TJ. Why walk right down the same path with Beachy that you went with Medlen?
It’s not a permanent conversion to relief, it’s a temporary move to keep him from putting too much stress too soon on his arm. As I said, the man came in to the year with just over 200 innings in his professional career, a 3 season span. To put that much on him this year, when he has never had a full season as a starter including collegiately if I’m not mistaken, is putting him at a pretty high risk of injury. Why take that risk when you can ease back his workload, while still getting extremely valuable use in a relief role, and Minor can keep there from being any drop off at 5th starter with the fine tuning he’s done in AAA.
So, to sum up, I’m not talking about demoting Beachy to the bullpen, I’m talking about protecting an arm that may not be ready to assume such a large workload right now. If Beachy had spent the past 3 years exclusively as a starter, with 150+ last year, I wouldn’t mention this.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Last year was 135, so that’s fairly close to your ’wouldn’t mention this’ statement. I just don’t see it being a huge worry…Medlen started the year in the bullpen and then made the move to the rotation, which is more likely the cause rather than a simple innings jump.
Starts, in the minor league, are also a bit vague. You see a lot of the 2-3 inning round-robin stuff, which Beachy was a part of last year before becoming a full-time starter.
The same is true for at least the back-half of ‘09, even though his first “start” that season was in late June…which lasted as long as a couple of his relief appearances earlier in the year. It’s all a bit fuzzy, but he’s been seeing multiple innings semi-regularly even in ’08.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
The wouldn't mention this statement...
has as much to do with the two years prior to that, instead of exclusively last year. The “had he spent the past 3 years exclusively as a start” part, not just the 150+ last year. Basically, what I’m saying is he made a pretty big jump in innings last year. To make him have such a big jump two years in a row, for a guy who prior to that had never logged significant innings before. He had 76 in the full season of 09, which isn’t small, but it’s not a lot either. And he was a 1B/3B in college, not a starter, so he’s not accustomed to a large workload then either. I just think making such a big jump, two years in a row, on an arm that isn’t used to extended work, puts more stress on it that needs to be put on it.
It’s all speculation anyway, and only the future knows whether Beachy truly is a risk for injury because of the quick uptick in innings he’s having to throw.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
It’s clearly easier to transition from being a starter to a reliever than the other way around. Teheran needs the work currently as a starter (besides, he is great insurance if the rotation can’t stay healthy). I can see Teheran being transitioned to a reliever comes early August to help us this year as a power arm in the pen.
Doing that much earlier than August is premature in my opinion (unless there is a blatant need for another bullpen arm) because it would be very hard for him to go back being a starter THIS YEAR if he makes the switch.
by LEastCoastBears on May 10, 2011 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
What about next year?? Even with an early August arrival date, they’re only getting 1/2 the innings they need for this season.
I’ll agree it’s easier to transition from starter to reliever in the offseason. During the season, when they have never had relieving experience, not so much.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
If we're talking early August...
he could be at 120 innings by then (if you assume approx. 30 innings a month), which isn’t a bad total to jump from unless you are wanting to exceed 200 the following season.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
120 would leave you at about 27 starts next season (that may be generous, as I used 6 IP/start). This assumes a jump of 40 IP from 120.
Assuming a pitcher’s healthy, you want them to be able to throw the entire season, which is about 31-35 starts, depending on when off days fall and when turns are skipped for various reasons. If you’re planning on making the playoffs, it could be more than that (we’ll sort out a playoff rotation with our embarrassment of riches later). And, obviously, you’d prefer your starter to go more than six innings.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
If he stopped at the 120 though...
this assume he keeps adding on as a reliever, maybe 15-30 by year’s end, which would allow for that 40 inning jump to get him closer to 200, which is about right. I’m for leaving them down until September or there’s a need for a starter, but just saying that a move in early August seems to still allow for a full starter’s workload the next year.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I don’t think there’s a good answer on when to shut him down, but 120 is far too few. 120 won’t get him through July at his current pace, which is actually pretty steady (one game < 6, one game > 6). There’s no reason to pull him from the starter role at the All-Star break, which is really close to where he’d hit 120.
Personally, I’d prefer they get him through August, with a couple starts intentionally missed in both July and August. If Minor can fill in for a month, that’s fine. It won’t kill him in terms of service time to come up that late. And Beachy could still come in from the bullpen at that point. With the ASB and a reduced workload in August, he should be able to carry some extra innings on his yearly total this season.
Essentially, I’d like to keep him in the club’s preferred role for as long as possible, while not completely wasting him for the future. Missing two starts apiece in July (one occurring during the ASB) and August would put him at 156 innings at the current rate, which is exactly where I’d like him to be going into a relief role. 15-20 innings in relief during September puts him at the preferred +40 IP.
You can’t expect he’ll throw a whole lot more innings in October, with only 19 games possible if the Braves make the WS while playing out all 5 or 7 games in each series. Maybe an extra 10 IP total there, but that would be a fairly high estimate (getting bumped in the NLDS, for instance, would only add a max of 5 IP to his arm, barring some incredible extra-innings game in which he was asked to be the long man).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Another thing of value is inherited runners...
which also play into the WPA value, to an extent. Here are the Braves numbers so far:
Pitcher — Inherited/Scored
Gearrin — 0/0
Kimbrel — 1/0
Linebrink — 14/4 (3 allowed on GS v PHL)
Martinez — 4/1
O’Flaherty — 8/0
Sherrill — 8/1
Venters — 9/3
Team — 49/9 (18.4%)
Also, here are first batter retired stats…
Gearrin — 4 of 6
Kimbrel — 10 of 16
Linebrink — 9 of 16
Martinez — 5 of 9
O’Flaherty — 14 of 19
Sherrill — 10 of 12
Venters — 13 of 18
Team — 72 of 106 (67.9%)
My first thought is
“Dang, we actually gave Linebrink 14 inherited runners?”
My second thought is
“I love EOF.”
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
It's funny
how under the radar his decent performance has been.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 10, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
You certainly wouldn't know it
from the way people talk about him around here.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
So much complaining before it happens
that it turns into a “phew we survived Sherrill” situation rather than a “Sherrill did well” situation.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Randomn..
I just bought a pack of MLB 11 Topps Cards, and I got Yunel Escobar’s card, with a picture of him in his Blue Jays uni. On, the back this is what it said:
The first Major League game Yunel ever saw was as a teenager on a TV in a Mexican hotel room. The Braves were playing, and he fulfilled a dream by signing with them. Escobar moved on to the Blue Jays last July, but soon assimilated. After one jaw-dropping play at shortstop, he smiled and said, “The crowd’s reaction made me feel like I’m at home now.”
I don’t even have the words…
ION, another card I got was Jason Heyward’s Topps 60. Walks by 2010 MLB rookie:
1. Jason Heyward Braves 91
2. Ike Davis Mets 72
3. John Jaso Rays 59
4. Gaby Sanchez Marlins 57
5. Austin Jackson Tigers 47
6. Justin Smoak Rangers, Mariners 46
7. Logan Morrision Marlins 41
8. Brennan Boesch Tigers 40
9t. Pedro Alvarez Pirates 37
9t. Carlos Santana Indians 37
I also got a card that was in the exact same pack I bought that was of Billy Wagner in a Braves uni.
It’s hard to believe that after Omar Infante’s .321 average for Atlanta in 2010, Martin Prado is tied for 7th in batting average with Ryan Zimmerman at .307. What surprised me was Starlin Castro’s .300 average which was good for 10th.
I had a dream where there was a baseball field of sabermetric statistics and they started canceling each other out.
Well, you’ve gotta have an inning eater, so I’d keep one of Linebrink or Martinez, whichever one is less likely to be injured. Sherrill can be effective against lefthanders — the problem is, his left/right splits are so insane that you can never take the chance of his facing a non-pitcher righthander. That really limits the situations in which he can be used, and if the team gets in trouble with a few pitching injuries, it will become a question of whether they can afford for Sherrill to tie up a roster spot given the low number of innings he is likely to pitch.
But I still don’t see the need to run out and get a reliever anytime soon. Maybe around July 1 if Ascensio and Gearrin aren’t effective. And even then, I don’t know that I’d want to give up very much to get one. And that’s allowing for my fear that Medlen won’t be back this year, given how often the timeline for Tommy John rehab stretches to 16-18 months.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
