Dan Uggla's 2011 Compared To Previous Seasons
by Scott Coleman on May 10, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
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PrintWhen Frank Wren acquired Dan Uggla in December, the Braves finally had that right-handed bat they had longed for for three years. His career numbers are incredible for a second baseman, and while his defense left something to be desired, he was widely known as a hard worker who would give it his all on a nightly basis.
Uggla has struggled in his first 36 games in Atlanta, but he's been known to be a slow starter. As of May 9th, here are his stats from the first six years of his career:
2006: .274/.328/.444
2007: .227/.325/.439
2008: .264/.347/.550
2009: .194/.306/.369
2010: .274/.353/.487
Career Average through May 9th: .244/.331/.455
Career Average: .261/.345/.483
2011: .207/.260/.379
Dan Uggla has struggled in 2011. There is no doubt about that. But as the numbers display, outside of a special year or two, Uggla isn't all that far away his career numbers. The season is still young and it's still at an early enough part of the year where a few big games can turn your season around (see McLouth, Nate and his doubleheader last week.)
If you need further convincing, his BABIP this season is .226. His career BABIP is .298. He's hitting the ball well. They just aren't falling...yet. When this evens out, watch out.
Uggla's best days are ahead of him. All he needs is a couple of strong weeks and he'll be right on par with what he's done offensively in the first five years of his career, which is pretty damn spectacular. When he starts hitting like the Dan Uggla of 2006-2010, our lineup has the potential to be explosive on a nightly basis. With our pitching staff, which, as a whole, might just be the best in baseball right now, the Braves will become an awfully scary team.
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One stat was missed
I would like to see what his average is after he breaks out of his slow start. With a career average thru May of .244, and a career average of .261, what numbers is he putting up in June-September? I would venture a guess that its in the .270 area, which is good, but not great, but that is what you get with some power hitters. With his ability to crush it, you might be willing to settle for a little lower BA. As far as his defense goes, I haven’t been able to watch a lot of games, but listen to most every one, I have been very impressed with his fielding. I was concerned with all the talk of him being a poor defender, but I have yet to see him look bad, so it looks like we win on both fronts!
hopefully he starts smashing now
and continues to smash in august/sept
People are like at least I'm not that guy on stage. That guy on stage is like at least I'm not that guy in the looney bin. The guy in the looney bin are like at least I'm an orange
I guess I’ve only seen about half of the games, but in quite a few of them he’s gone 0-for-the-game but really killed the ball three or four times. If he’s not wiffing a lot more than average it does not look to me like he’s struggling at all, really.
On the other hand, all I read about in the offseason is how bad he is at defense. Doesn’t seem to me like that’s an issue at all. Or maybe the problem is that I don’t recognize bad defense when I see it. Uggla’s highlight reel isn’t as cool as Gonzo’s but it does look pretty good nonetheless. Are his defensive numbers way different from the past?
'07 and '09
which were his worst Aprils, were also his worst hitting seasons overall. For April, his lowest average, OBP, and slugging were in ’09 and second worst in each was ’07. There is precedence that his worst Aprils project out to sub par complete seasons. Here are the numbers:
2006: .282/ .339/ .480/ .818
2007: .245/ .326/ .479/ .805 (2nd worst avg, worst obp, 2nd worst slg, lowest ops)
2008: .260/ .360/ .514/ .874
2009: .243/ .354/ .459/ .813 (worst avg, 3rd worst obp, worst slg, 2nd lowest ops)
2010: .287/ .369/ .508/ .877
I admit it’s hard to make a concrete assessment of his 2011 season long performance, but there is a little history there to make note of.
BABIP
as a follow up, his two lowest career BABIP years were also ’07 and ’09.
2007: .279
2009: .274
His career BABIP average is .302. With his BABIP being so so low, of course his numbers will improve as that improves, but it does not gaurentee that he is or is not going to have a career worst season overall based on the historical trend of the SSS of 5 years.
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 9:03 AM EDT up reply actions
Given that April actually factors into season-long stats, it might be better to see if a bad April was followed with bad May-September, rather than anything else. Given a certain level of badness, a particular April may drag down a player’s season stats without necessarily impacting the performance in the other months.
by Ivan the Great on May 10, 2011 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, that’s why I mentioned it’s hard to make a concrete projection b/c of that reason. The main point was that he’s never had such a strong May-Sept to overcome such slow starts. I’ll look it up.
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Interestingly enough, 2007 and 2009 are also his worst May-Sept years (oct was not included b/c he did not have games played each year in Oct). ’09 was his worst May-Sept in BA and Slg and ’07 was second worst in both. ’07 was his worst May-Sept in OBP and OPS and ’09 was second worst in both. Funny this follows an every other year pattern. Here is what his even vs odd years look like in May-Sept numbers:
07/09: .247/ .326/ .475/ .813
06/08/10: .275/ .358/ .505/ .863
To me that is a pretty big difference that doesn’t tell all that much because there are only five samples. However, with the available numbers, his Aprils have projected his overall numbers pretty well as far as “good” season vs “bad” season. If you look at the flip side, his good starts in 06/08/10 held together for the May- Sept period as well.
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I noticed that as well
2011 looks similar to his 2007 and 2009 seasons, which were his worst seasons. If people are expecting him to bounce back and hit .260 with a .350 OBP to go with 30 homers, they might be hoping for too much.
The last sentence in the post is the kicker.
Although we do have to take that with some reservations. The pitching will probably slow down a little; the opposite of Uggla, the pitching will revert to closer to the norm in the wrong way. On the other hand, Freeman and Heyward are both below .250, so we have more hitting that should be improving as well.
It's also nice to see his LD%
He currently sits at 17.1%, which is over his career average of 16.6%. So at least we can’t attribute that to his low BABIP. This gives me even more reason to be excited about the smashing that will happen soon.
This is me not being worried.
Everyone around here had ridiculously high expectations for Uggla coming into the season. Obviously, there’s little chance that Uggla is going to meet those. But as mvhs mentions, he’s really not so far off of his numbers from a couple of his other seasons. Once the hits start falling in a bit more often, his numbers will be better. But at the end of the year, they’ll be more like 2007’s numbers than 2010’s. That’s fine by me; I just hope no one ends up disappointed in Uggla.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
I now twitter as @junkstats and blog about made-up stats and general baseball stuff at JunkStats.
by Jacob Peterson on May 10, 2011 10:18 AM EDT reply actions
I know what the problem is...
His shirt sleeves are too short. They are cutting off circulation and causing his forearms to swell. It’s pretty obvious to me!
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they are going to feel all day. - Frank Sinatra
I agree!
Shorter sleeves! In fact, off with the whole shirt, just to be safe.
LIVE EDT
Tape-delayed for the West Coast
better to have him go on a hot streak in september when we need it rather than right now and just disapear for the rest of the season (Troy Glaus)
ESPN can give the Philthies all the verbal BJs they want, Braves will still clinch the east!
by suicide bunting is a sin on May 10, 2011 11:06 AM EDT reply actions
Are you suggesting that Uggla's going to blow his legs out?
I find that unlikely.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
when dan starts hitting
We will forget the slow start…
However if he doesn’t.. his poor defense is going to be a major drain on this team. So far this year his defensive metrics are similar to previous years… so pretty bad. He is making less errors, but he is not getting to many balls either.
Right now its a small sample size and all the projections aren’t kind to him. Let’s hope he gets it turned around at the plate otherwise pete orr will be worth more
by UltimaParadox on May 10, 2011 11:16 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Have you not been watching baseball this year?
Here is an example of when stats don’t tell the whole story. Watch him play and tell me he hasn’t been great out in the field.
Exactly
Sometimes actually watching the games gives you a better idea about whats going on then just reading stat sheets…
I have actually been very impressed with Uggla’s D. He has made some plays that I did not think he could make and he is NOT making many errors which can’t be dismissed. Not bad when you have a gold glove caliber SS and future gold glover at first.
I feel sorry for people who don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they are going to feel all day. - Frank Sinatra
Concerning Uggla's D
I too have been impressed. I figured a guy w/that much muscle wouldn’t be as quick to the ball as what I’ve been seeing. He’s been making some nice plays. In part, IMO, because of his teammates in the infield. Good play from one inspires good play from the other. Also, based on what I’ve read from previous postings, Land Shark stadium isn’t the premier of playing surfaces as far as baseball is concerned.
A baseball diamond is, most simply, the intersecting of four 90-foot baselines, and, most powerfully, the intersecting of seemingly random lives.
I agree
His defense is better than I was expecting it to be. I read so much about him being a good offensive player, but that his defense left much to be desired.
I tried to say those UZR h/r splits were a positive sign...
no one listened.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I watch like every game
He makes the plays on the balls hit to him, but he has very little range… the advanced metrics about him arent made up.
by UltimaParadox on May 10, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Well put Bravosbum...
That’s why, even last year, Alex Gonzalez was wayyyy undervalued. You have to watch the game…all aspects to glean the value of a player. I know it seems obvious, but on this site, too often, people jumped all over Gonzo while citing a couple of stats.
It should be noted...
That even if he produces at his 2007 clip, he’ll still be a bargain this year (2.4 WAR was worth $12MM this offseason, he’s being paid $9.2MM). If he produces at his ‘09 level for the rest of his contract, he’ll still be worth his salary. (2.8 WAR = $14MM to $13.2MM salary).
This assumes, of course, that FA dollars per WAR remains stagnant, which is unlikely. It’s much more likely to go up at least slightly over the course of the next five years, making him an even greater bargain if he can meet those modest returns. The value of 1 WAR fluctuates on the market, obviously. It went from $4MM last offseason to $5MM this offseason, but it sat at about $4.5MM in 07-08.
If we get ’06, ’08, or ’10 Uggla even once during the contract, that basically pays for an extra 2/3 to a whole season in value.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
The 2011 start seems to be worse than any year you mentioned. He’s also had an OPS every year of low.800 in his down years to his hisghest OPS of his career last year. Which may lead me to believe he may not reach that lower .800 OPS number this year unless he hits well above his norm for the following months.
Hindsight is always 20/20, but at this point it looks like it would have been wise to wait until this after the season to sign him.
and what would the rest of the roster look like to you? Prado at 2nd and who in LF? or who at 2nd and Prado in LF?
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn’t say it was a bad trade by any means, but it may have been wise to wait until after his first season in a Braves uniform. Again, you can’t predict how’s he going to perform in 2011 in February so I can’t fault Wren. Uggla was coming off his best season and could have duplicated what he did last year which would have only increased what he could have gotten on the open market.
Nevertheless, he may not even perform up to his worst year in 2011, which means we could have taken 2 draft picks after the season or sign him to a more team friendly contract.
RIght, but you can’t predict how he is going to perform in May-Sept ‘11 (though there are trends) and you definitely can’t predict how he will finish out his contract years with the Braves (and there are trends for that to, which point to the upside). The question is how would the Braves have replaced the whole vacated by the Uggla non-signing in the prime contender years of not only ’11, but 12-14.
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
But I’m saying we would have had him for 2011. The trade was great. We gave up Infante and Dunn. That’s a win. I’m referring to the 4 year contract extension that doesn’t begin until after the season. Sorry if I wasn’t clear. Typing too fast.
No I do get it what you mean. My question is, how would the Braves have benefitted better from a one year rental and then forced into a similar problem next year as last year. That being a lack of power in the middle of the order. The Braves would have to come up with another 2B or LF of at best similar value and for the risk/ reward on the contract they signed with Uggla (as shown by -C) I don’t see how the Braves benefit better. The 4 year extension (5 total) basically implies (from his first 5 years) that he will have 2 really good years, 2 not as good but not horrible years, and one that probably falls in the middle. You just can’t paint with a broad brush based on his start in Atlanta or even the potential that this turns out to be a “down” year offensively.
by CharlotteChop on May 10, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Hypothetically speaking, if Uggla plays out the year to a tune of hitting .230/.330 OBP and around a .750-.760 OPS, then I don’t think I’d want to sign him to a 4 year $52 mill a deal at season’s end. If he’s able to get that in the open market, than good for him. We would have had him for one season and benefitted from picking up 2 draft picks and finding an alternative to replace him with that money.
This year’s start is by far the worst of his career and I don’t think he will even be able to match his worst season stats even if and when he catches fire. Hopefully I’m proven wrong.
Even if the Braves had...
Uggla’s was still going to get 4/48 in the offseason. His worst years have been worth that much.
Add in competing teams vying for his services, and you get back to our $13.2MM figure really quickly, while paying him almost a million more this season because he goes to arbitration rather than settling on $9.2MM, a low figure.
We’re literally talking about a potential overspend of $5MM over five seasons, based upon his worst past performances. Meanwhile, we don’t have to match the Mets (among about 20 other teams) offers when he becomes a FA.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on May 10, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
And if you think I'm high-balling the contract if he bombs this season...
Check out Carlos Pena’s stats and salary. Much, much lower production at a position that’s much easier to find impact bats, and he still got $10MM without anywhere near the consistency Uggla’s had (only three seasons > 2 WAR, and he’s a year older).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on May 10, 2011 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but you’re basing that on him performing in 2011 and for the next 4 years similar to his worst performing years. However, as I said earlier, based on his worst start of his career, he may not even reach those stats.
That’s largely irrelevant.
You’re going to base salary on what all teams would be willing to pay for a given player. I can guarantee you that most teams, if not all, are at least willing to give Dan Uggla a four-year deal at the yearly value of his least valuable season. That’s really just common sense…
This is not a Ryan Howard situation, in which only 3-7 (let’s say 10 max, but that’s stretching it beyond reality) would pay what the Phillies paid for his extension. Almost every team would be willing to pay Uggla the amount he received, given it fit their budget constraints.
Now, if Uggla doesn’t meet those numbers, it doesn’t make the Braves extension a bad one. It just means Uggla played poorly during the contract.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on May 10, 2011 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
And that is why free agency is the least efficient way of creating a contending team. GMs are always paying top dollars for past performance and giving contracts that pay players way passed their prime.
Agreed...
But how many teams do you know with no imported players??
You build your team with your farm system, and supplement that with free agency.
If only we had 25 homegrown players with less than six years of service time within the organization that could comprise a World Series caliber team, that’d be great. But it’s not remotely logical or feasible.
I mean, c’mon…Lowe, Hudson, Jurrjens, Moylan, Linebrink, Sherrill (yes, I have to include those two to be fair), Sea Bass, Hinske, McLouth, Uggla, Ross, and O’Flaherty are not homegrown. Look at the list, and how many are busts?? Want to drop them all tomorrow and go with our homegrown guys instead?? No??
Jurrjens and McLouth are the only two that have never been available to all 30 teams, either through FA or the waiver system, or the Rule V draft.
If you say extending Uggla was a bad idea at the time of the deal, then you HAVE to say the same about, say, Hudson. Older, far greater injury concerns, seasons worse than Uggla’s worst.
People only complain about free agents when they don’t work out.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Oh yeah...
Chipper, too, as he could have been a FA anytime over the past 11 or so years…but they re-signed him, like they did Uggla.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I guess you’re going to argue with just about anything I post regardless if you agree with or not. Making trades for players in their prime and signing free agents to long term deals that takes them passed their prime are two different things. Way to take what I said about free agents and include trades and homegrown players too. Pat yourself on the back for that one.
Seriously, how you manage to include a 21 year old Jurrjens who had 6 years of cost control and include 2 relievers who are free agents at the end of the year and compare that to the Uggla situation is beyond me.
I’m not comparing Jurrjens to the Uggla situation at all. There is a reason why I started my post with the word “Agreed.” And then there was a qualifier. This means, “You’re correct, but…” and then I began to look at the bigger picture, including aspects outside of free agency. It’s a separate discussion, a tangent.
I’m just saying that everything has its place. You have to look at all forms of transactions, including free agency, to build a team properly.
Hudson, however, is a perfect parallel to the Uggla situation. Chipper and Lowe are clear parallels as well.
Also, if we’re talking solely about the Uggla situation, then your “paying top dollars for past performance” doesn’t apply. If they were paying top dollar, he’d be getting $15-20MM per year based upon his best past performances, not slightly above the value of his worst performance.
His most recent performance was worth nearly 40% of that four-year contract in 2009 value and would be worth 50% of the contract in the current market. Feel free to keep characterizing it as an overpay, but you’re flat-out wrong.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
His most recent performance was worth nearly 40% of that four-year contract in 2009 value and would be worth 50% of the contract in the current market.
It’s an overpay if you don’t get one of those seasons. Every year past 30 reduces his chances. I don’t disagree that the price paid for Uggla was at or below market – but all FA contracts are a gamble, and generally it’s a lot easier to replace an offensive minded LF than 2B. I’m a bit surprised no one has mentioned Uggla’s terrifying OBP. Turner is a much tougher place to hit in than FLA, which may well explain why his LDs are being caught, and his GB outs are way up. Without power, Uggla’s game gets pretty ordinary pretty fast. I agree there is time – but to characterize his start as anything other than “severely troubling” is more sanguine than I can muster.
by Atlantaspike on May 10, 2011 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions
How would a stadium have any influence on GB outs??
by dunnytwogloves on May 10, 2011 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Much tougher how?? Ballpark factors are actually in Turner Field’s favor for everything but R, 2B, and BB in past years. Easier for HRs and singles at Turner. The fence is 5’ shorter in extreme left at Sun Life, but 5’ farther at the L/C gap, and 4’-34’ deeper in center.
Also, it’s not an overpay if you don’t get one great season. A 2.6 WAR pays the bills, and that’s a far cry from his big seasons.
If you wish to characterize it as “extremely troubling,” that’s fine. Go ahead and do so, but we’re still only a little more than a month into the season. Let’s not knee-jerk a five-year contract over one month in which he typically plays cold anyway.
If he explodes in May, I expect you to knee-jerk your opinion right back. If you don’t, well, then duwanis has a quote for you.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
It seems to me like April is the single most scrutinized month in any baseball season. Because if a player has a crappy August (but a decent rest of the year), it doesn’t get noticed like a crappy April would get noticed.
by dunnytwogloves on May 10, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Much tougher how??
Turner’s multi-year PF is 97/98. FLA’s is 104.
How would a stadium have any influence on GB outs??
Wasn’t the theory that FLA’s infield was so bad that it made Uggla’s D look worse than it really is? Surely the reverse would be true as well – a poor IF leading to more GB hits.
Let’s not knee-jerk a five-year contract over one month in which he typically plays cold anyway.
A 260 repeat TWO SIX OH OBP is really troubling over nearly 25% of the season.
Also, it’s not an overpay if you don’t get one great season. A 2.6 WAR pays the bills, and that’s a far cry from his big seasons.
To quote Bogart, when he gets there, call me.
If he explodes in May, I expect you to knee-jerk your opinion right back. If you don’t, well, then duwanis has a quote for you.
N one will be happier than I if he does – but can i count on you to turn up and say so if he doesn’t?
by Atlantaspike on May 10, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Can you expect me to say he’s not doing well?? Sure. Right now, he’s not doing well. I’ll be the first to say it. I’ll say it twice, if you like. He’s not doing well. If he’s still not doing well after another month, guess what I’ll say. He’s still not doing well.
Am I going to forecast five years after two months?? Fuck no. I’m not that stupid. What if he goes a full year performing poorly?? Still not going to write him off, but I’ll say that 2011 was a bad year. Because that’s all it is.
It’s been barely more than a month…he’s got five years. Quit freakin’ out.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
In the first place, I wasn’t arguing the validity of his long term contract – but to quote Lincoln, “The hen is the wisest of all animals, for she never cackles until the egg is laid”. Let’s wait until Uggla has actually put up one of those 2.8 WAR years before declaring it as a self-evident prophecy. In the second place, I am glad you are willing to maintain your optimism to the end. It’s fitting for a fan. But you’ll forgive me if I find some very troubling trends in his play for this season, and am less than convinced it’s chargeable to a slow start.
by Atlantaspike on May 10, 2011 5:39 PM EDT up reply actions
So we can’t count his previous 4-of-5 record because it occurred in a different uniform?? We should instead assume he’ll be 4-of-10 for his career because of one bad month?? Which is the more absurd expectation??
I’m all for not counting chickens before they’re hatched, but his chicken has hatched 4 of 5 times. Pardon me for not worrying when it hasn’t hatched thru 1/5 of the season.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Much tougher how??
Turner’s multi-year PF is 97/98. FLA’s is 104.
How would a stadium have any influence on GB outs??
Wasn’t the theory that FLA’s infield was so bad that it made Uggla’s D look worse than it really is? Surely the reverse would be true as well – a poor IF leading to more GB hits.
Let’s not knee-jerk a five-year contract over one month in which he typically plays cold anyway.
A 260 repeat TWO SIX OH OBP is really troubling over nearly 25% of the season.
Also, it’s not an overpay if you don’t get one great season. A 2.6 WAR pays the bills, and that’s a far cry from his big seasons.
To quote Bogart, when he gets there, call me.
If he explodes in May, I expect you to knee-jerk your opinion right back. If you don’t, well, then duwanis has a quote for you.
N one will be happier than I if he does – but can i count on you to turn up and say so if he doesn’t?
A poor infield that leads to more errors on defense is a poor infield that leads to more reached on errors, not hits.
I’m not going to argue the point, but suffice it to say, it’s the least of his problems. He’s making a LOT more GB outs, and his LDs are being caught, and he is not walking at all. Until he starts getting the ball out of the infield with authority more, this isn’t going to change, regardless of whether it’s an April/My curse or not.
All those issues, short of the drop of BB%, are explained by BABIP, though. You can’t assume he’s going to BABIP .226 for the season, unless you’re more foolish than the average bear.
The walks are a bit disconcerting at first glance, but really aren’t. This actually doesn’t seem too far off from past seasons, as his BB% is historically lowest in April as well.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
BB% is historically lowest in April as well.
Not this low. But if you want to ascribe this to luck/slow start/stepped on a crack an broke his mother’s back, by all means.
Career – .264
2010 – .313
2009 – .250
2008 – .306
2007 – .250
2006 – .297
That's BABIP...
Not BB%.
You can’t really expect any normal BABIP splits for any player, as BABIP is essentially luck. It’s a heavy fluctuator.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
You're the man, Dan.
"This is gonna feel so good getting this thing off my chest. That's what she said."
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on May 10, 2011 10:05 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
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