Braves Fall to Nick Punto and the Cardinals in Extra Innings 5-3
by SCrebel10 on Apr 30, 2011 12:01 AM EDT
in Braves Game Recaps
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PrintAfter losing a tough extra-inning game to San Diego a couple of days ago, the Braves again struggled in extras, this time against St. Louis as the Cardinals took the first game of the series 5-3. Atlanta had plenty of chances to win the game, mainly a one run lead in the ninth that Craig Kimbrel was unable to hold as he blew his second save of the season.
The game started off well enough for Atlanta, as Jason Heyward crushed a Chris Carpenter fastball into the right field seats in the bottom of the first inning to give the Braves a 1-0. Chipper followed with a line drive double to left, and was driven in on a Dan Uggla double into the right field corner, staking Tim Hudson to a 2-0 lead after one.
The rest after the jump..
Hudson pitched well, tossing six innings of six hit, two-run baseball, leaving with a no decision. St. Louis got on the board in the fourth after singles from Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman put runners on first and third for Yadier Molina. Molina then flied out to deep center field, making it easy for Pujols to stroll in on the sacrifice to make it 2-1 Braves. Ryan Theriot singled, and then third baseman Daniel Descalso singled as well to center, scoring Berkman and tying the game at 2.
The score wouldn't change again until the 7th, when Nate McLouth turned on a Chris Carpenter offering and sent it flying into the Braves bullpen in right field, giving Atlanta a 3-2 lead. McLouth had himself a great game at the plate tonight, going 2-4 with a home run, an RBI, and a walk. Good to see from Nate, who is thriving in the eight spot in the lineup. Carpenter was done after the 7th, earning a no decision as he scattered ten hits and three runs.
After Jonny Venters worked around a walk in a scoreless eighth while facing Pujols, Berkman, and Matt Holliday, Atlanta headed to the ninth with a one run lead and Craig Kimbrel coming in to seal the deal. Unfortunately, Kimbrel didn't have his best stuff tonight as he struggled mightily to miss bats and struck out no one for the fourth appearance in a row.
Yadier Molina singled to start the ninth against Kimbrel, and then was pinch run for by Tyler Greene. Greene advanced to third after Ryan Theriot followed with a single of his own. Descalso then came up and flied out to left field, allowing Greene to score, blowing the save for Kimbrel and tying the game at 3.
Cory Gearrin came in to pitch in relief for Atlanta, tossing a scoreless tenth and came out again for the 11th. Gearrin got the first out on a grounder to short, but then hit Ryan Theriot to put him at first. He rallied to strikeout Descalso for the second out of the 11th. Gearrin then walked pinch hitter Mark Hamilton on four straight pitches. This is where I have my issue, as Gearrin was completely gassed after the walk; there was no reason for him to still be in the ballgame.
Alas, he was left in and his first pitch to Nick Punto was lined down the right field line for a two-run single, give St. Louis a 5-3 lead they would not give up. Jason Motte recorded the first two outs of the bottom of the 11th, and lefty Trevor Miller got the final out against Nate McLouth to seal the game for the Cardinals.
WP
Eduardo Sanchez 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K
LP
Cory Gearrin 1.2 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Save
Trevor Miller 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R
Things to note:
Tim Hudson struggled some with location, leaving pitches over the plate some although St. Louis never made him pay for them. Toward the end of his outing, his body language indicated he may have been favoring his right hip, so that's something to look for.
I'm not one to pile on Fredi Gonzalez, as this loss wasn't his fault, but I have to question his use of the bench. Calling on Joe Mather to pinch hit and then try to get him to bunt (which we found out he cannot do) in the bottom of the ninth was awful. Then in the 11th, even with Nate having a good game, it would have made sense to use David Ross off the bench. Ross was on deck, but seeing as Nate flied out, it didn't matter.
Up next
Game two of the series takes place tomorrow, with Jake Westbrook taking on Brandon Beachy at 1:10 EST.
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Okay, I'm finally gonna say it...
I really don’t like the way Fredi has been handling the late innings. He is so predictable with the bunting. Having Mather bunt tonight was, in my humble opinion, not a good decision. Hindsight is 20/20, and I hate to sit at home and second guess the professionals, but some things just aren’t making much sense. Stop being so rigid, Fredi.
If Mather gets that second bunt attempt to stay fair (and do the job he was asked to do) then the complextion of the game is completely different with Nate on 2nd with 1 out and Prado/Heyward coming up.
The recurring theme here is that players aren’t executing…especially the bench.
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 9:07 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It is completely different
but we still have a lower chance of scoring with Nate on second and 1 out than we do with Nate on first and no outs.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Ahhh yes. Let’s bring in Hinske, who if I’m not mistaken grounds into his fair share of DP’s, in that situation?
The dynamic is different when you are searching for the walkoff run. You put the player into scoring position…every time. I can only imagine the second-guessing of letting Hinske hit if he GIDP?
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 10:00 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My "second-guessing" isn't second-guessing, it's looking at the numbers.
Like I’ve said several dozen times since the season started, it doesn’t matter that Mather didn’t get the bunt down. He could’ve gotten the bunt down, and we could’ve won in the bottom of the ninth, and it still wouldn’t have been the best decision, because it didn’t give us the best chance to win.
Same goes with Hinske if he GIDP. We may have still gone on to lose in extra innings, but it stilll would’ve been the right decision to make, because it gave us the best chance to win.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Is that a 9th inning statistic or an composite average 9th inning statistic?
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 10:32 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Let me restate...
A 9th inning only statistic or a composite complete game 9 innings average?
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 10:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Given that the argument is based on WPA, it’s based on that EXACT scenario – bottom of 9th, tie game, 0 outs, runner on 1st. Giving away an out decreases win probability more than moving the runner to 2nd increases it.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Apr 30, 2011 11:31 AM EDT up reply actions
yep, you can consult the following win expectancy table, which is based on actual games played over a large sample:
http://www.tangotiger.net/welist.html
Bottom of the ninth, no outs, runner on first, tie game gave the Braves a 71.5% chance of winning. Had the bunt been successfully executed, we would have had a runner on second, one out which would have given us a 70.3% chance of winning. When the bunt failed, we had a 63.7% chance of winning with a runner on first and one out. So the best case outcome of that at bat is a -1.2% win probability added while the worst case is a -7.8% WPA. You could estimate an expected WPA using the average rate of success of a bunt (and adjusting for Mather’s bunting skill-level). It’s obviously negative though, since it’s between -1.2 and -7.8.
Compared to the 0% expected WPA of a normal at-bat (of course this is not adjusted for Hinske, but he’s an above average bat according to his career wOBA, especially against righties), bunting was a bad decision.
There are other factors involved, such as the hitters ahead of the bunter (Prado and Heyward)
The bunt was a defensible decision, especially given that. To me at least, bunts are fine when you should be playing for 1 run. Using Mather to bunt isn’t.
I’d almost rather have seen Jurrjens used to pinch-bunt.
If you guys say so...
but that’s interesting. There’s a better chance with 0 outs and a runner 1st to score of getting
2 hits between 3 outs (my assumption to get him home)
vs.
1 hit between 2 outs
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 12:02 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
well or 1 hit
to move him to 3rd, and a flyball or groundout to score him
People are like at least I'm not that guy on stage. That guy on stage is like at least I'm not that guy in the looney bin. The guy in the looney bin are like at least I'm an orange
What I don't get is
If you want someone to bunt in that situation (which I’m not a fan of), why not use Brandon Hicks who has some bat control and will be able to at least get a bunt down.
It’s sort of this. Basically, I think he functions a lot of times in, “If those goes well, I’ll be hailed as brilliant!” mode.
If Hanson had gotten that squeeze down. If we were able to retire Kemp. If Conrad were to replicate his success last season. And so on.
This time, though, I’m not that angry about Fredi, just angry about the game as a whole. I hate that we have so little bullpen flexibility if EOF, Venters, and Kimbrel are all burned. It’s more or less shutdown city for three innings, and then what feels like a guaranteed loss unless we’re able to scratch runs across for the rest. I’m also angry at the strikeout call on Freeman. Ridiculous. And I hate how Gearrin suddenly lost all effectiveness after mowing down the Pujols/Holliday/Berkman troika.
Better luck tomorrow, I guess.
by Ivan the Great on Apr 30, 2011 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Completely agree. Part of what’s ailing the pen is Moylan being out, once he gets back the pen gets much better. The main issue though is having Sherrill back there who only faces lefties and doesn’t pitch much, it makes the pen so less flexible. I’d love to have Marek or Ascensio in there instead, it’d help the pen pit alot.
by SCrebel10 on Apr 30, 2011 12:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
This is the first night I actually miss Bobby.
McClelland needed a new asshole torn for him. We did plenty to lose this game before that point but I would really like to have had the opportunity that Freeman earned before that schmuck took it from him play out.
Is it Holliday’s proximity that causes him to get suddenly incredibly stupid?
"All told, Philadelphia stadiums house the most monstrous collection of humanity outside of the federal penal system." - GQ
I missed Bobby the minute he left Linebrink in for 3 too many batters.
by BeatTehMets on Apr 30, 2011 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Blehh
That GIDP with bases-loaded was pretty painful to watch…
Still love you Bmac. Awesome throw-out of Rasmus!
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
Seems like we keep losing these extra inning games 5-3..
by WeStillHaveBobby on Apr 30, 2011 12:36 AM EDT reply actions
Fredi On the 11th inning dispute with Tim McClelland (from DOB)
I think Freddie (Freeman) thought that he had called ball four. We almost got a runner picked off. That would have been big. For me, having the opportunity to look at it, a replay, for me it’s a strike. It’s too close to take. I’m not taking anything from Freddie, or any of that kind of stuff, for me, a two-strike pitch, you’ve got to swing at that. I’m not going to go home having the umpire making that decision for me in that game.
Awesome. Not a tactical manager, and not a players manager. I don’t care if it was too close to take, it was a damn ball, and even if it wasn’t, him not calling the strike until Freddie had run 30 feet had the runner almost picked off.
Everyone knows McClelland takes so ridiculously long to signal, but usually you can hear him call it (well, sometimes on the TV, but Freddie would have heard him). He didn’t call it loud enough for the batter to hear, then he took so long that he and the runner thought it was a walk, even though they know about McClelland. That’s just ridiculous.
Also, it was a ball, and I don’t care if it was close enough to swing at, he didn’t swing at it, it was a ball. Nut up Fredi. What exactly do you do if you don’t call a good game and you don’t stick up for your players?
I’m leaning towards the Fredi out campaign
by SuperHeyward on Apr 30, 2011 1:12 AM EDT up reply actions
You might be better off joining the time machine campaign
Because we’re stuck for at least 2 year (if we absolutely fall short of expectations) and a minimum of 3 of we are in the playoff race at all.
I’m not much of a campaigner, especially not a futile campaigner, but let’s just say I’ll be happy when we move on to the next era. I won’t give up on the team, and I would rather all his stupid moves work than for me to be right, but I don’t have to like the manager to root for the team. I’ll never root against Fredi (except rooting against him keeping his job).
But I’ll also keep quiet for the most part, except for ranting about the stupid stuff he does that costs us games.
Throwing a rookie under the bus.
I thought I was mad before…“too close to take”? Seriously? That ball was 6-8 inches outside. If wants Freddie to start hacking at that kind of shit we’re all in a lot of trouble.
It was quickly apparent that FG was cluelss. Now we see he’s pretty gutless, too.
"All told, Philadelphia stadiums house the most monstrous collection of humanity outside of the federal penal system." - GQ
It wasn't that far outside
It was a borderline pitch. But he called a pretty tight strike zone (at least when we pitched) and it was outside the zone.
Here’s his strikezone map for the game:
Just for reference. I’m not sure which one of those pitches is the one to Freddie.
These are from the ump’s prospective, so the left side would be outside for a lefty. I’m pretty sure the pitch in question is the red triangle on the left hand side, even with the bottom of the strike-zone, just outside the zone. So at (-1.05, .95) or so on the graph. Which puts it maybe one or two inches off the plate. The furthest on that side of the plate that he called for the Cards was about 4 inches outside to a lefty. Weirdly, he apparently also called a pitch about 8 inches inside to a lefty:
Also, he apparently only sucks at calling balls and strikes for lefty hitters. He did fine with righties:
And Freddie maintains that McClelland said "Ball four."
But hey, let’s blame it on Freddie for not swinging at a close ball.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I was sitting behind home plate
the whole game. Not once did i hear McClelland say a call. That performance was a disgrace to umpiring. They should earn their money
#6.. a true american. you can always pull a favre bobby
I'm sorry, but this is just ridiculous
Then in the 11th, even with Nate having a good game, it would have made sense to use Eric Hinske off the bench.
How does it make sense to send a guy with a career .299 OBP against LHP as a pinch hitter against a LOOGY? Nate isn’t much better against lefties, but he at least had a HR earlier in the game and has been hot lately. Plus, you wouldn’t be burning a bench player that might be useful later against a RHP, and would have no CF if the Braves tied things up.
Most folks in the game thread were calling for Ross there. I didn’t have a problem with him leaving McLouth in, since he was having a good game, but he was also 1-13 with 4 K against Miller.
and then have Hinske come up against Miller anyways (if Ross gets on base). Fredi made the right decision. If McLouth got on and they brought in a RHP to pitch to Ross then he use Hinske.
assuming we tied it up, who would you play in CF, Heyward? (with Hinske in right) then you would be burning two bench spots for one at bat by Ross
You worry about being forced to put someone in center first. Ross is the best chance to tie the game.
Let’s put it this way: If Ross ties the game as the OF is Hanson, Beachy, and Ross we have a better chance of winning the game then if it’s over cause we didn’t score.
We knew coming into this series that it was gonna be tough sledding against an offense that has been absolutely on fire recently. We can second guess Fredi’s decisions all day long, but the truth is sometimes you just get beat. The other reality is, Kimbrel’s numbers were unsustainable…it was just a matter of time before teams started to figure him out a little bit. Doesn’t mean he won’t continue to be dominant if he can adjust, but he is still a rookie. He’s going to have nights like tonight.
by Aaron Meier on Apr 30, 2011 1:50 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Nobody has brought up this..
Gearrin should have pulled after the 2nd walk of the inning, especially with it be a crucial point in the game AND an unfavorable matchup. That was a boneheaded move, IMO.
by murph35 on Apr 30, 2011 2:22 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
shoulda woulda coulda
Suck it up and play again tomorrow.
I'm a former CTU agent, so don't f--k with me!
This team can’t absorb foolish decisions every few days. It’s good but it’s not good enough to overcome regular trips to Doofusville.
"All told, Philadelphia stadiums house the most monstrous collection of humanity outside of the federal penal system." - GQ
Wasting relievers in a 3-3 game when Gearrin has the ability (more than most Braves relievers) of inducing a groundball out or doubleplay. When it doesn’t work, he’s a dufus. When it works, it’s by the book. Lovely dichotomy…
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 9:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
That was more of a general comment
I have a fair amount of confidence in Gearrin. I’m just sick of Fredi’s lack of understanding of the game.
"All told, Philadelphia stadiums house the most monstrous collection of humanity outside of the federal penal system." - GQ
It wasn't a second walk.
The first was a hit batsman on a pitch that slipped out of his hand. Big difference.
I will reiterate what I said below: the batter was Nick Punto, and Nick Punto is not a good hitter. There’s absolutely no reason to take Gearrin out to face him.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 30, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
This
Punto beat him; Gearrin didn’t give it away.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I just saw the "highlights" from tonight's game.
Probably a good thing I didn’t watch.
"This is gonna feel so good getting this thing off my chest. That's what she said."
Twitter: @scottcoleman55
by Scott Coleman on Apr 30, 2011 3:56 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
It was a good close game until the 9th
then it was just frustrating.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
The biggest one was when McCann grounded into a double play when they had the bases loaded with one out. If he got a double or a single Kimbrel wouldn’t have been under so much pressure.
Heyward lines a shot off the back of Collin Ballester, the Nats' pitcher and into left center field. The hit was so brutal, even Heyward could feel the vibration coming back at him.
Why Fredi?
I was at the game last night and was able to see Gearrin pitch for the first time. I thought he came up really big getting Pujos, Holliday and Berkman out in the 10th. I was sure that Gonzalez would bring in Sherrill in to face Punto in the 11th. Unfortunately, Sherrill was brought in after a two run triple by Punto. What was Fredi thinking?
Also, when I saw Hinske in the on deck circle in the 9th I was excited because he has come up so big for us in the past. When Mather came out and took his place I was confused. I was just pissed when Fredi asked Mather to bunt and he failed miserably.
One of the jobs of the manager is to put his players in the best possible place in which they can succeed. Fredi failed to do that in these two cases.
He was probably thinking what most of us were thinking: Nick Punto isn’t a good hitter. He’s a no-power, groundball specialist with a below-average OBP. None of our pitchers should be pulled with Punto coming up to the plate. He’s probably a great guy, but hitting certainly isn’t his strong point.
The Mather move confused everyone. I hope it confuses Fredi when he watches the film.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 30, 2011 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions
broadcasters...
the sanitization of bad things that happen on and off the field is reaching absurd heights…Simpson and Glavine last night insulted our intelligence…McDowell, Lowe etc…
on the field one example will do…
BLOWN SAVE…say it…when it happens
Kimbrel got beat. I don’t think Fredi’s decisions cost us the game, it was the Cards beating Kimbrel, with singles. That will happen.
I’m furious about Freddi throwing Freeman under the bus. That’s something Bobby would NEVER do in public, for damn good reason, and with a team that might have morale issues, it’s even more unforgivable. I’m actually angrier at that other his other decisions.
I used to think Freddi was just a bad game manager, today was the first sign that he may just be a bad manager outright. This team is going to win in spite of its manager, not because of it.
Bobby did call out players...
In fact, he said in a press conference last year that Jason Heyward is struggling because he’s not being aggressive.
Fredi said nothing more than what a little league coach would say…with 2 strikes you have to make contact if it’s close, and not let the blue decide the game. I’m sure the issue was addressed in the locker room and it’s a done deal.
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 9:01 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Probably. I’m just mad at losing all these close games that were won last year.
I also think managers should protect their young players. Cox’s comment to me seemed more positive encouragement then criticism, though that may be personal bias creeping in.
I’m using to screaming for the heads of coaches- I’ve put up with Chuck Amato, Herb Sendek, and Sidney Lowe in the last 10 years. I’m traumatized.
So let me get this straight...
When we lose…“Fredi can’t manage”
When we win…“Exactly how Bobby would have done it”
Looking at the language, it seems Fredi is set up to fail.
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 8:56 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Who has ever said "Exactly how Bobby would have done it?"
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
My point is no one gives him credit for 13 wins, they just seem to give him credit for 14 losses.
by TBuzz on Apr 30, 2011 10:37 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't give him credit for 14 losses
I do give him credit for consistently making decisions that hurt our chances of winning, though.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
fortunatly...
the Braves are run by people who a way better baseball people than the idiots here who think Fredi is a bad manager after 27 games.
btw the Braves record is better right now that it was at this point last season.
I don’t think Fredi is a bad manager after 27 games. I think he’s a bad manager after 555 games. I was saying this far before he ever coached a game with the Braves. He is just not good at his job and he does not seem to be a very intelligent person.
Even if you wanted to judge off of 27 games, you could. All you need is a few awful decisions to see the type of philosophy a coach has. Nearly every significant decision Fredi makes hurts the team’s chances of winning. He’s made a few decisions I liked, but the bad ones outweigh the good ones by a large margin.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
Ok, so Gearrin gives up a couple runs and he can’t pitch more than one inning? Armchair. Managing at it’s finest.
The Mather call hopefully was a learning experience.
Great advice to pinch hit for a guy who had multiple hits including a HR with no real backup CF (double thumbs down, farting noise)
Freeman
Would like to have seen Fredi get run on that call. That was serious BS lazy umpiring. Ring the guy up if you’re going to call a strike. I like that Fredi told his rookie to go to the dugout, but the lazy umpiring should have been confronted I felt like.
Everyone is acting like this is the first time Fredi has made a huge mistake that cost the team a game. If you want to defend idiotic actions, it’s your prerogative, but this guy has to be in the lower tier of managers and I have a hard time seeing how anyone could argue against that.
Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"
Consider this my official request for runs in the middle innings of a game.
It seems we can score in the 1st (maybe 2nd) and sometimes in the 9th.
I’d love to see some numbers in the box score on our side for innings 3-8.
Joe said last night’s extra-inning game was the 4th in our last 8.
I think we are now 1-3 in those.
"Curve: The loveliest distance between two points." ~ Mae West
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