Braves Sweep Doubleheader With The Mets

I’d also like to see Hinske get some more at-bats especially after hitting well tonight, but we have to remember that McLouth is in center and he needs some help. Young covers a ton of ground out there.

that being said. This article, or study, misses the 800 lb pink Gorilla in the room. The theory of protection is not about the protectee’s average, but about the prevention of crippling a “rally”. I could give two shits what it means to Heywards individual stats because while I am a fan of Jason Heyward I am a greater fan of the Braves.

While I agree with the article that the protectee’s average, OBP, SLG may not be significantly affected over and entire season with protection, the teams win loss column will. Here is why: many games over an entire season are one run affairs which are decided in a key inning. For example lets say the Braves and Philies are tied 3-3 in the bottom of the 9th, and there are two outs and runners at 2b and 3b, Jason Heyward steps to the plate and A-gon is scheduled to hit behind him. Knowing the potential of these two hitters, why on Gods green earth would a pitcher choose to throw anything in the strike zone to Jason Heyward when the next hitter is far less likely to get a hit than Heyward is.

This situation (whether in the 9th inning or not) happens many times over a season and thus a great hitter with a poor hitter behind him is far less likely to be able to maximize his potential and thus win games in crucial at bats.

I read the article. I understand the theory. It misses the point.

I am not concerned with an individual’s stats as I am by the ability of my team to win games. The team’s ability to maximize its winning potential is greatly depreciated when opposing pitchers can choose to walk its greatest hitter in key situations to pitch to a less dangerous hitter.

While I value sabermetrics, they aren’t perfect for explaining every, single occurrence in baseball. Sometimes I feel some major proponents of advanced stats close off all other explanations or opinions of baseball by throwing stats and stats at people, and some act as if the less stat-savvy are flat out wrong/ignorant (not calling anyone out in particular).

I get it. The stats merely quantify the play actually happening on the field; however, they provide a good explanation, but they are not perfect. Plus, in my opinion, they are a great tool for looking at situations on the average, but are not good at explaining certain random events that take place in a game.

Thus, as you and others above state, I don’t care if Heyward (or anyone else) over the course of the season will have a similar OBP, SLG, etc. with Pujols behind him v. Corky Miller—in clutch situations, he is definitely hurt by having a bad player behind him v. a good player. He may see similar pitches in the 3rd inning, but in the 9th if the Braves are down 1 with two outs and no one on, Heyward is more likely to get walked with Gonzo behind him than Chipper. He just is. Does sabermetrics have a stat for late inning situations like this or do the stats only compile the pitches Heyward sees in the early innings and late innings combined regardless of score?

Plus, one can’t quantify the mindset of the pitcher who knows that he be more careful with Heyward with a worse batter behind him. Heyward will be less likely to see good pitches, and the pitcher may be better able to paint the corners since he doesn’t care if a walk occurs.

That said, the argument I’ve heard is that if Heyward is moved up, then someone else will have to deal with Nate of McLouth behind them (i.e. if Heyward is moved to 2nd, then it’s Uggla who suffers instead of Heyward…the net effect is a wash).

but they are more likely to do this in close games and in tense situations. Thus it is not about Heyward’s average, it is about wasting his potential to cause damage in tight situations, which in turn affects our win-loss column. If Heyward has (a normal) Uggla, or McCann hitting after him the pitcher has to ‘pick his poison’.

This situation does not occur frequently but when it does it can be quite consequential.

How is range quantified?

I know. Can’t we just be happy and excited with Uggla without poo-pooing it with stats and ratings?

There hasn’t been one game (so far) that I can point to and say that Uggla’s fielding cost us the game…