The New Lowe the Real Lowe?

by bbxxj on Apr 15, 2011 3:27 PM EDT

I first want to say I like Derek Lowe and have liked him since I really started to take notice in his late Dodger days and even when he wasn't going so well in his early Braves days. What can I say? I have a thing for inning eating groundballers. Lately though, Lowe has stopped being the inning eating groundballer and become something else - something better it seems. As weird as it may sound, Lowe's arm injury late last year has been a revelation for Lowe and the Braves. Since the injury Lowe fiddled with his mechanics and changed how he pitched. Just look at the results:

From when he signed to the end of August 2010 Lowe had these numbers:

62 GS
357 IP
4.61 ERA
5.5 K/9
3.1 BB/9

After August of 2010 including the playoffs until now Lowe has these numbers:

10 GS
61 IP
1.48 ERA
8.6 K/9
2.1 BB/9

Of course the first set is about six times as much data but I don't believe the increased performance is just small samples size randomness or dumb luck. Not only have we heard about a change of approach/mechanics and watched his stuff look better, I found some pitch type and results stats that back up the thought that this New Lowe is the Real Lowe.

Before Change

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
Sinker	2059	36.80%	63.30%	44.30%	6.20%	16.80%	21.30%
Slider	1056	18.90%	60.70%	41.50%	11.30%	12.80%	17.40%
4-seam fastball	957	17.10%	66.00%	44.30%	3.10%	17.00%	24.10%
Fastball	721	12.90%	61.00%	39.90%	3.90%	15.00%	21.10%
Change	563	10.10%	56.00%	45.30%	11.50%	14.20%	19.50%
Cut fastball	152	2.70%	55.30%	38.80%	9.90%	11.80%	17.10%
Curveball	93	1.70%	58.10%	45.20%	16.10%	14.00%	15.10%

Post Change

Type	Count	Selection	Strike	Swing	Whiff	Foul	In Play
Sinker	484	48.40%	61.40%	40.90%	6.20%	15.90%	18.80%
Slider	314	31.40%	62.10%	43.90%	19.40%	10.50%	14.00%
Change	119	11.90%	59.70%	50.40%	10.90%	20.20%	19.30%
Cut fastball	72	7.20%	62.50%	43.10%	2.80%	26.40%	13.90%
4-seam fastball	9	0.90%	66.70%	44.40%	0.00%	22.20%	22.20%
Fastball	1	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

From that data from Texasleaguers.com you can see he has increased the use of his slider by almost 13% and has nearly a 20% wiff rate on the pitch. It looks like he has increased his slider rate at the expense of his less effective 4-seam fastball and fastball which I assume are nearly the same thing. Its also interesting to see he is using more sinkers and more cutters further going away from his straight fastball.

Looking at this data and watching him pitch, do you think this New Lowe is the Real Lowe?

This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.

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Comments

The real Lowe, whoever he is, probably can’t sustain a sub-2.00 ERA. But he has been money lately, so yay.

by Ivan the Great on Apr 15, 2011 4:06 PM EDT reply actions

great post

helps me put even more faith in his improved numbers..

It makes sense he is more effective—throwing to both sides of the plate, less strait pitches, and a better slider..

by willlinn on Apr 15, 2011 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

Remember

in Bobby’s final presser, he said DLowe’s gonna win 20 game this year?

"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while." - Dave Cameron

by abraves257 on Apr 15, 2011 5:39 PM EDT reply actions

One important thing...

While the approach has changed, his batted ball data has remained relatively consistent, which is awesome. If he can snag about 3 more strikeouts per nine AND maintain a high-50s GB%, that is pretty tough to beat.

-C

It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?

by cthabeerman on Apr 15, 2011 5:55 PM EDT reply actions

that is the guy who pitched for the Dodgers before we got him, basically.

"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."

Dwight Schrute

by Swo12bv on Apr 15, 2011 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

no swo12

im pretty sure he is pitching completely different. he still relied on his FB in LA he threw his FB less than 10 times in 10 starts

by MacsGlasses on Apr 16, 2011 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

grammar fail

in LA. he threw less than 10 FBs in his last 10 starts

by MacsGlasses on Apr 16, 2011 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions

you are absolutely correct. I was referring to the results more than anything, and should have made that clearer, although I wasn’t aware how little he is using the fastball, and how much he is throwin other stuff.

Fangraphs has him throwing a cutter at about 8% and a change at 17%. His slider is back to Dodger levels, thought.

Dwight Schrute

by Swo12bv on Apr 16, 2011 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions

I was skeptical

about his “transformation” last season, given the relatively light competition from his September sample (Pirates, Nats x2, Mets, Fish). However, seeing him continue this success against teams like the Phillies and Brewers is certainly encouraging. I wonder though, can this new style show sustained success over the next couple years? Or will teams pick up on his new slider-heavy style and be able to adjust accordingly?

by Andy Kim on Apr 15, 2011 6:46 PM EDT reply actions

hey korean guy

love to see korean braves fans. thats a good ?. if his slider stays this sharp i dont see him having many problems. his low velocity doesnt really matter.

by MacsGlasses on Apr 16, 2011 3:11 AM EDT up reply actions

If you look at his best year with the Dodgers, the last year before coming to Atlanta, he utilized his slider a good amount as well as his sinker. Balancing the two pitches is the key for him. He’s a tremendous pitcher when the breaking ball is working well, and it has been since last September.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Apr 15, 2011 11:08 PM EDT reply actions

Lowe or Hudson

Which veteran would you rather have Derek Lowe or Tim Hudson? Its great having both, but if you had to pick who would you take?

by carloscollazo06 on Apr 16, 2011 9:57 PM EDT reply actions

Huddy

CAU: Pronounced 'Cow'. Cuteness Above Uggla, analytical measurement that gives a factor of a player's cuteness above Dan Uggla. For example,

Nobody has a positive CAU.

Martin Prado leads the league with a -0.0 CAU.

by frozendesert on Apr 17, 2011 1:08 AM EDT up reply actions

If Lowe is pitching like he has in September and now, him. If not, Huddy is the better sinkerball pitcher so I would go with him. The fact that Lowe is able to strike out more than he really ever has makes him the better choice going forward. If that trait diminishes, then Huddy is the guy.

Twitter: @Ben_Duronio Stop calling Tommy Hanson "Big Red"

by BenDuronio on Apr 17, 2011 1:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Our infield defense has been much better than everyone has expected, especially Uggla, so I think both will do great this season. Now we just need to get them some run support…

by carloscollazo06 on Apr 17, 2011 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions

A couple things

One thing is that Derek has confidence in all his pitches, the Sinker, The Slider, the Cutter, and he added a change up last year with a little help from Kris Medlen.

The second thing is the mechanical change has him more up right and thus he is getting greater downard movement and tilt on the slider. he is throwing 4 pitches now and keeps hitters off balance with the sinker slider then the cutter is inducing a lot of broken bat grounders to Alex and Uggla.

by mauck98 on Apr 20, 2011 3:18 AM EDT reply actions