April Showers bring Rosterbatory Flowers.
by ryan c on Apr 11, 2011 4:03 PM EDT
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PrintThings to rosterbate to:
1. We still need a RH bench bat.
2. Sherrill and Linebrink are looking no better than they did in Spring. Linebrink's replacement could easily come from within. On Sherrill's replacement, there's not much organizational depth in LH relief.
3. Kenshin Kawakami is still a Brave and there are teams (Orioles) who are still looking for SP depth. How 'bout a bad contract/change of scenery trade that both teams could benefit from?
Kenshin Kawakami and George Sherrill for Jake Fox and Mike Gonzalez?
Get it done, Wren!
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Sherrill wore out his welcome in Baltimore YEARS ago.
KK for Fox could work.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 13, 2011 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
i think
we should give linebrink a little longer he seems to have decent stuff, i would get rid of sherill asap and bring somebody up, i know we got some talent in the minors who can do the job better.
Yeah, I’m good with Linebrink. He’s got some nice movement on his FB and I’m pretty sure I’ve read he’s a good clubhouse guy. I’m also still fine with Sherrill if he’s strictly a LOOGY, which FG seems averse to doing.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Apr 11, 2011 5:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Pittsburgh
is looking for SP depth, why dont we try and work out a deal for Diaz? I think FW really regrets letting him go
"Welcome to the show, Brandon Beachy. I think you’re going to stay a while." - Dave Cameron
Do we really need another lefty?
Sherrill seems to be more of a middle reliever at this point than a LOOGY, and between EOF and Venters I don’t think we really need a LOOGY anyway, unless we just wanted to give both of those guys a day off.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
a) I’m talking about how he’s being used, and how the pundits are describing him after this first week-and-change of baseball, not what role he should be filling.
b) That has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not we actually need a LOOGY to replace him.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
I’m about sick of people actually thinking we could land a major leaguer for KK – even a borderline and/or struggling one. We stuck his @ss in AA even though the AAA P staff is mostly fringe prospects, reclamation projects, and journeymen. If we could even get a 25 yo guy in the DSL for him while paying 1/2 KK’s salary, we would do it – no questions asked.
As for the rest of the rosterbating, nothing will happen soon. I think we liked the team coming out of ST and FW isn’t one to jump the gun. He’ll give the team 1 month or 2 before reevaluating and seeing where the holes are… well, unless a flat insane deal comes along. If there’s an injury, he would call up someone from AAA, but that’s it until at least May and probably mid-May.
BTW, I’m not very high on the talent @ the AAA level, so don’t think that we’ll just “call up a guy” and keep rolling. Outside of Teheran, the guys I watched were, at best, fringe MLB talent. I saw Proctor, Marek, and Varvaro in relief of Teheran, and if it were my decision to call them up, the order would be Proctor 1st, then Varvaro, then Marek. As far as bats, Lucas impressed me and Ramirez has obvious talent, but the rest aren’t close to MLB ready. The only one I’d hold out of this assessment would be Constanza just because he could be a “you have to watch him night-in night-out to appreciate him” type of guy.
No... it's just the lesser of evils
I wasn’t impressed with Proctor, but I was less impressed with the other 2 when it comes to middle relief. Varvaro was great for 1 inning, then lost 5 mph off his FB; Marek just didn’t look to be more than a just a guy (average FB, and a good curve, but it broke too much to be too effective in MLB – the only way he could throw it for strikes was to start it @ the eyes. Eventually, MLB hitters would key on that and then he’d be relying on that low 90’s FB…). Marek looked more like a big, RH version of Chuck James than another Hoffman.
Now, I didn’t see Asencio and maybe he’s a panacea. Maybe one of the kids on the DL (Sborz, Cordier) show out or maybe we could pull a guy from the starting rotation (Thompson?) for our BP. But if we’re looking for someone to outpace Linebrink, or even Sherrill, then I don’t see it sitting in the 3 guys I got to see 1st hand out of our AAA BP.
So
having too much break is a bad thing? and if you aren’t the next Hoffman then you aren’t good? lol ok
Yes, a pitch can become ineffective if there’s only 1 way it can be used. It’s a rare find indeed to find a one trick pony who is consistently successful when he’s going against the best.
At times, people here have built up Marek too much. The way people talk about him, you’d think he’d have better career #’s than Hoffman – even if he breaks in @ 26.
boy oh boy...
there’s lots wrong with that post, but i’ll only respond to the accusation you threw out about kenshin kawakami. first off, mike gonzalez has been injured and probably needs to throw less innings that what the o’s need him for. he’s an expensive player that the orioles will not get their money’s worth from. it’s not like this isnt a risk on both sides. it’s a trade that could meet a need for both parties. kenshin is actually a good mlb 5th starter, no matter if he’s in mississippi, atlanta, or baltimore. the braves ned to realize that in order to trade him, they might also have to take on a bad contract.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
I wonder
if KK would still look like a good 5th starter in the AL East…
couldn't look any worse
than dice-k looked today
by DreamWithinADream on Apr 11, 2011 11:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you're right
We liked KK so much that we spent about 1/7 the $ on Rodrigo Lopez and put Lopez a full level ahead of KK. Look, we’re paying him nearly $7M to pitch for the thriving metropolis of Jackson, MS. Why? So he could climb the prospect ladder and make himself more desirable? Laughable. And it’s not like other teams disagree. Do you honestly believe that other teams don’t realize they could get him for a bucket of used balls and maybe a broken bat or 2? And even get us to pay 1/2 his salary? And haven’t known this since last August? Of course they do – and no one is biting.
But never mind the fact that every GM in baseball (aka, the people who actually get paid to do this) sees the same thing, the “board wisdom” of talkingchop hath spoken and KK is a MLB P.
Sure, I think it’s a pipedream to get any team in baseball to spend real money on Kenshin. So, I agree with you there. My trade scenario does not contradict your statement financially. Maybe do a bit of research next time before realizing your folly. It would be very easy to balance out the extra money with Atlanta chipping in a million or so. Really, Gonzo has been awful in Baltimore and Sherrill had a lot of success there. It’s a classic change of scenery trade.
Mike Gonzalez: 6 million
Jake Fox: 424k
Kenshin Kawakami: 7.33 million
George Sherrill: 1.2 million
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Why? No research needed
I used to live in DC before the Nats and I follow the Orioles a little. I realize that Gonzo is prolly done and Fox prolly isn’t even replacement level. But if you really want a breakdown:
Sherril for Gonzo: maybe, but prolly be a pass for Baltimore. Both are prolly done and Sherrill makes more $$, but at least Gonzo is more athletic and, hence, is more likely to go on a run.
KK For Fox: Deal Breaker; no way in h3ll. Even if Fox sucks, he still made the 25 man. Thus, he fills a role that Buck thinks is needed and has no one better to fill the role. Trading Fox just creates a hole that would need to be filled elsewhere. Even if we eat the entire difference in their salaries (~$7M) it would still be a no.
"Both are prolly done and Sherrill makes more $$"
Man, the state taxes must be rough in Maryland if Gonzo, making 6 million per year, makes less than Sherrill’s 1.2.
You’re right again….no research needed, but only on my side. I don’t have to do research to prove a point to a blogger who fails to know the difference between 1.2 million and 6 million.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
I guess the debate has devolved
pressing for a typo… whatever
it was more than a typo
you were phrasing it to where sherril making more money was a detriment thus another reason they wouldnt accept
People are like at least I'm not that guy on stage. That guy on stage is like at least I'm not that guy in the looney bin. The guy in the looney bin are like at least I'm an orange
Reread
It was saying that Baltimore might like to spend less considering both are prolly done, BUT I think they would still pass since Gonzo still offers more upside this season.
When reading, a “but” generally means that the opposite side of the argument will be presented. I think I was in 3rd grade when I was taught that.
If you're going to get all snippy about it
the “but” has nothing to do with this. You said Sherrill makes more money, which he does not. If that’s a typo, that’s fine – call it out as such and move on. Don’t act like people missed out on an elementary school education just because you don’t proofread your posts and end up posting something nonsensical as a result.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
If you want people to take your argument seriously, you might wanna spell out probably all the way.
by thenightstallion on Apr 13, 2011 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
prolly so.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
lol
theatlfan lost all credibility with me. Anyway I though you did a great job thinking of that trade (although I am not crazy about it). I am one of the people that is delusional about KK value I guess since he seems to me to have a lot more value than what teams and GMs have shown. I can see him been a much better pitcher than most teams 4th and 5th starters and even though the price is high if the braves are going to eat half of it then I believe that seems like a good price for a 4th/5th starter.
As someone who lives in Maryland....
The state taxes are rough indeed.
"Never doubt Derek Lowe's ability to win despite himself."
by EricGreggWasPaidOff on Apr 12, 2011 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey did you ever find those old BA prospect handbooks?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Apr 11, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
OT: Ordering a Braves jersey
I have never purchased a baseball jersey because, well, I don’t know. But I am finally ordering one, and I am trying to decide between Chipper or Heyward.
Chipper is my favorite Atlanta Brave of all time, and Heyward rapidly becoming my second, I need a suggestion. Do I go with Chipper now and get Heyward down the road, or just go with The Kid? Thanks for your time fellow TC-ans
"I still feel like I have something to offer, and the cynical fan can really kiss my ass. I really don’t care. There’s a bunch of true fans and the people who actually want to take the time to get to know me know who I am. The guy who sits in his mom’s basement and types on his mom’s computer, I couldn’t really care less about." - Chipper Jones
Chipper, no question.
This may be his last season, though I hate to say it.
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
by MBL1 on Apr 12, 2011 12:05 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
My main... really only jersey right now is a Maddux 31 Jersey
I’d go with Chipper… Classic jerseys FTW
Go USA, Braves, BU Terriers, Irish, Caps, Colts, Hoyas, NU Cats, Wizards, DC United, Washington Freedom
BU Hockey: National Champions 1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009
We need to get rid of KK
For our sake and for his sake… the guy deserves WAY better than what he’s getting… it’s just pathetic really, at this point I don’t care that much if someone eats some of his salary and we get nothing else in return.
Go USA, Braves, BU Terriers, Irish, Caps, Colts, Hoyas, NU Cats, Wizards, DC United, Washington Freedom
BU Hockey: National Champions 1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009
When we need room in AA for a starting pitcher, maybe a June promotion, KK will be given away for next to nothing.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Here I go again
DISCLAIMER: I value KK more than most people it seems like
but here is my point. KK numbers in 2009 with the Braves: 3.86 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1.84 K/BB and 6.05 K/9
Yes last year was bad, but how many pitchers don’t have a bad year and their teams stick with them and they bounce back. The Braves have too many good pitchers to take that risk but how come no one remembers his 2009 season. I think is because that season he had a 7-12 record because of horrible run support and of course the 1-10 record last year in which he had some very good games in which he also got no support. Maybe his confidence is down because of it and a change would do him some good.
By no means I don’t think KK is an ace but a good 4th or 5th starter YES. Overprice? To me a little but is not like he has a $20mil contract or that the Braves would not eat some of his contract. So can someone explain to me why there is so little interest on him?
I have no clue why KK was “treated” the way he was, I enjoyed watching him pitch in 2009 and recognize that the 1-10 record was not "all his fault’. His peripherals are much better than his record. But he has a problem. He is in an organization that is loaded with pitchers. He is in an organization that values a certain personality. Was there a blow up meeting between KK and Mgmt? I have no clue, but some have said there was.
At this point, the Braves have multiple options that look better than a #5 starter, KK’s days with the Braves are obviously in the past. The lack of interest from other teams is a mystery. Maybe they are calling the Braves bluff and are waiting to pick him up after he is released, but Wren won’t release him. That’s all I can figure.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Hard to believe a blow-up
when you read how kawakami interacts w/ the media, you get the impression of a great guy in a bad situation, not blaming anyone but still disappointed in himself. He wants to prove people wrong and I hope the best for him… Although his AA starts have been less than inspiring.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Other than a force-trade button...
…how do you suggest we get him? Boston is in win now mode, and Lowrie is looking like he is going to be getting more playing time than Scutaro very soon. What do we have that we would be willing to give up that Boston would want for Lowrie?
Boston could be looking for SP. I think it’s a pipedream though. The Braves don’t see Alex Gonzalez as a problem.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
They could be looking for starting pitching, but how much...
…do you think it would take to get a young good player like Lowrie from them? It would have to be one of our top 6, and probably not JJ, at least not until JJ shows that he is healthy and good again. Hudson is 10/5 and going nowhere. Lowe would not get it done. I don’t think we want to trade Minor or Hanson for Lowrie, and I doubt Beachy would be enough. I just don’t see the fit here. If they move Lowrie it will probably be for something like Carpenter (if the Cards fall out of contention) or a Cubs pitcher (if the Cubs fall out of contention) or something like that.
Prospects...
Are the one area, other than a healthy and performing JJ, that would be feasible. Of course, that would also be dependent upon their stud SS prospect coming up, so he’d have to be ready as well.
After the Adrian Gonzalez trade, the Red Sox could use some more talent in their farm system. However, we then step into Beachy/Minor/Delgado territory, and I’m not sure I’d like the end result of that trade proposal.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I don't see the Red Sox...
…trading a young useful piece for this year’s team for prospects. The Red Sox are clearly in win now mode; they aren’t going to move a graduating prospect for younger ones. They would much rather move Lowrie, if they move him at all, for something that helps them win now.
I understand this train of thought
and honestly, this is pure and simple dirty rosterbation… BUT.. w/ Scutaro still on the roster and their young stud almost ready… Lowrie would be a GREAT replacement for Gonzo when he leaves this summer. I don’t want Gonzo for an extended period of time and while JJ Hardy is available this summer, he will cost a pretty penny. Saucedo, Hicks, Pastornicky are all in various stages of not ready for a fully time job (IMHO) and Lowrie may be a 10 year option at a thin position.
We have depth and if it cost a premium pitching prospect plus one of those three… it wouldn’t break my heart honestly. Here’s what I’d at least open the offer at:
Vizcaino, Salcedo, Dimaster Delgado…
I’ve not spent hours looking at stats or tape but I’d have to think that’d at least open the conversation. If they need a pitcher who is MLB ready, JJ or Minor would sub for Vizcaino…
Like i said, more blatant rosterbation than reality…
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 7:33 AM EDT up reply actions
The issue for Boston
…is that Iglesias’ glove is absolutely ready, but his bat may not be yet. He’ll have to learn at the MLB level, but he will likely need a solid backup to give him days off in the midst of offensive slumps to come.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Apr 13, 2011 8:52 AM EDT up reply actions
Why??
Boston’s lineup can easily carry a single all-glove, no-bat player, especially when there isn’t a spot for the pitcher in the lineup. We’re talking about what is supposed to be the best lineup in the major leagues.
Boston can absolutely afford having whomever they want backing Iglesias up, and not suffer greatly for it. If they need pitching for this year or for the future, we’re the team to speak with.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 13, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
And... scutaro isn't chopped liver.
He is the one who would lose playing if Jed gets more ABs… even though Jed would play anywhere on the diamond…
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
For this year...
Absolutely right…unless another infielder goes down with injury, the majority of Lowrie’s PAs will come at Scutaro’s expense.
However, looking at the future, Scutaro should be gone and Iglesias would be the starter. In that frame of reference, having Lowrie is valuable but that value is still mitigated by having superstars at first, second, and third.
The Red Sox won World Series rings with a hodge-podge of SSs (from Garciaparra to Orlando Cabrera) in 2004 and with Julio Lugo in 2007.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 13, 2011 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct me if I’m wrong here:
But I thought Noma’ was in LA when they won in their first WS in the 21st Century.
"Kill my boss?! Do I dare live out the American dream?" - Homer Simpson
Nomar
was the opening day starter in 2004, was hurt, and they made a midseason deal to get Doug Mientkiewicz and Orlando Cabrera. Interestingly enough, the player with the most appearances at SS for Boston in 2004 was Pokey Reese.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Apr 14, 2011 10:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, they could carry an all glove SS.
Hell, they did just fine when they had Alex Gonzalez playing shortstop. That is irrelevant, however, since Lowrie is a good hitter and not horrible defensively. If Lowrie is the superior player, why would they move Lowrie aside for Iglesias instead of just trading Iglesias?
The Red Sox clearly believe Iglesias is their shortstop of the future. There isn’t even much of a debate about who will be their starter once Iglesias is ready for the majors. He’s clearly their top prospect and a consensus Top 50 prospect overall.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Apr 13, 2011 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Well... hold just one sec
Lowrie was the heir apparent and reason Hanley was pushed off if my memory serves me. His wrist issue and Iglesias’s emergance (sp) have turned Lowrie into Boston’s Infante…
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Not really...
Lowrie was drafted in ’05 and had only played a little bit of low-A ball at the time. The big impetus for the trade was getting Beckett, who was a WS MVP, after the Red Sox got swept in the ALDS in 2005 with an unhealthy Schilling and David Wells being the “studs” of the rotation.
You have to pay a premium price for a premium player, and Ramirez was that price. The Red Sox needed pitching, and they paid for it. Saying Lowrie made it okay is a bit far-fetched – he was barely in the system at the time of the trade.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
fair enough...
i took a minor leap of faith w/o looking it up. my apologies but still… I think Lowrie could make it tough for them to bring Iglesias up before his bat catches up to his defense. Lowrie is not a bench player plain and simple.
Let us have him and we’ll start him somewhere. :-) :-P
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm all for it...
I’ve been on the Lowrie bandwagon for some time. Dice-K could be our ticket into the Lowrie sweepstakes.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Lowrie and Dice-K
for
JJ (or Minor/Beachy), Dimaster Delgado, Salcedo, Kawakami
I don’t think Dice-K is broke and a change will do him good… :-)
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Baseball America ranks Iglesias at 52.
So he isn’t quite consensus top 50. ;)
You can upgrade from A-Gon, but it would be more expensive then it’s worth. McLouth would be the easier external upgrade (and I already think there are better internal options)
Talking about Schafer or Ramirez?
I think those are better future options, but they wouldn’t do us much good if you were looking to get rid of McLouth right now.
I don’t know that they’d be that much help if we tried to get rid of him midseason either, I think. That was an option if Schafer came back real hot, but so far he still seems like he needs work.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
psychic Mr. Cavebird.
I think we’re all seeing now why I have had a man-crush on Lowrie. le sigh
by Klemson Krash on Apr 19, 2011 3:45 AM EDT up reply actions
As for the original post...
…there are tons of issues with the idea:
1. Way too early to abandon Linebrink. he has only given up runs in two games. Of course, that leads to bad numbers when the sample size is four innings pitched.
2. While Sherrill has not been good at all, he has not been used correctly—-he has faced as many right handed batters as lefties. He can’t get righties out, period. Not sure why we are doing this. That being said, with Kimbrell the closer, and Venters and EOF around, I am not sure how Sherrill really fits in our bullpen anyway. That being said, he has not trade value, so getting something for him isn’t going to happen.
3. Why do people think the Orioles need starting pitching depth? They have gone with the kids, with great results. KK isn’t going to bump Guthrie, Tillman, Britton, or Arrieta out of the Baltimore rotation, and Matusz is due back in a few weeks. The Orioles have plenty of SP depth. I can’t see why they would want KK even if we took nothing in return and paid most of the contract money. He doesn’t fit with them any more than he does with us.
4. Why would they give up Fox and why would we want him? If we want to carry three catchers so we can have a right-handed bench bat we can do what we are doing now and have Boscan on the roster so that Ross can be used as a pinch-hitter. Ross is a better hitter than Fox anyway, so Fox would just take Boscan’s role as the catcher who never plays at all. Not sure why we need to trade for a guy we wouldn’t play at all anyway.
5. Really, somehow the title should have involved rosterbatory showers, not rosterbatory flowers, although I admit I can’t really come up with anything good.
One minor correction
Of course,thatany performance leads tobadunreliable numbers when the sample size is four innings pitched.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
@1 Wasn’t abandoning Linebrink. I was just pointing out that if Linebrink were to flop, his spot is easily filled internally.
@2 You’re right. Sherrill hasn’t been used correctly because he’s actually being used. The only way to use someone correctly who can’t pitch is to not pitch them.
@3 One reason Baltimore might go after SP depth is because they said they are looking for starting pitching depth.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/orioles-eyeing-rotation-depth.html
@4 We’re looking for RH power off the bench. He fits and would probably be at the expense of Conrad.
@5
I’m not perverted enough to actually post that.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Strange.
You think they’d just use Hendrickson as their internal meatball over the candidates discussed in that article. And since it is just a stopgap thing until Matusz returns, I don’t see why they would want KK unless we ate all the money.
As for Sherrill, except for way too small of a sample size from this year (four batters, two of which he retired), he has always been able to get lefties out. He can’t get righties out to save his life. Having him face a right-handed batter unless we are ahead or behind five or more runs is a pretty bad idea. Again, however, as I noted, do we really need another lefty who is good against lefties when we already have EOF and Venters? That all being said—if he is as bad as you say, why would the Orioles ever give anything for him? You can’t have it both ways—if he is so bad that he is completely useless, he can’t have trade value.
As for Fox, why do you think he is any better than Conrad or Mather? He is pretty much the same; not good enough to be more than a 25th/26th man on a roster; poor defense at multiple positions and a little power but not enough hitting. Buying based on spring training exploits is silly. Fox has never been much of a hitter and he remains that way. For all of his ST HR’s, he is 0/7 to start the season.
@5—-I have to boo this response.
You know that rosterbatory flowers
….can be trimmed. Makes the deck seem much larger as well.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SEIuL4SfeRQ
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Apr 12, 2011 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Sherrill…I think he’s bad, no matter the sample size or handedness of the batter. He might have been able to get batters out once, but I don’t have faith in him.
On Fox…His minor league numbers are really good. The guy can hit. Fielding…well, Conrad can’t do that either.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
If it is an irrational hatred of Sherrill...
…obviously, I can’t argue against that, there is nothing to argue against. Realistically, the numbers show that Sherrill is still fine against lefties. Even last year, when his ERA was over 6.50, here were Sherill’s splits:
Righties hit: .427/.516/.707 (1.223 OPS)
Lefties hit: .192/.286/.288 (.573 OPS)
For his career:
Righties hit: .276/.383/.419 (.802 OPS)
Lefties hit: .168/.237/.265 (.503 OPS)
He’s a classic LOOGY. He just should never face right handed batters. Again, with Venters and EOF already in the fold, I don’t know why we need him, but he isn’t useless.
i know his past numbers...
and I actually made an argument for sherrill’s signing based on those numbers. however, he looks like a shell of a pitcher that put up the numbers above. if he’s with this team in july, i’ll be shocked.
irrational based on past performance, yes.
irrational based on what we’ve been exposed to thus far in the season and in spring training, no.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Okay...
…it is the ole’ April SSS issue. Who knows, he could be toast, pitchers all crash and burn eventually, and this may be the end of his line. I won’t jump to that conclusion on four lefthanded batters faced, however. I will jump to the conclusion that he can’t get righthanders out to save his life anymore, however.
As for Fox...
…his numbers scream AAAA. He mashes minor league pitching, but in many trial in the majors he mostly whiffs and hits pop-ups. He reminds me of Brandon Wood, Dallas McPherson, Scott Thorman or any of the other of the large number of AAAA sluggers who aren’t athletic, can’t field, and can’t hit major league pitching.
@5
I guess rosterbatory showers will bring May flowers?
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Its a shame the Orioles are showing so much life
I’ve been waiting for them to firesale and dump Markakis for years now.
Nathan Richard - Please come home. We all miss you.
Markakis is signed long-term.
They are building around him, not dumping him.
I just don’t think that they have a core which is going to win that division by 2015 (which is how long Markakis is signed) and not enough talent coming up the pipe. Right now they just look like they haven’t made a total committment of going into rebuild mode, which is what it’s going to take. They’re just eager to try to get a team over .500 sometime.
As for their hot start, I’m not buying it one bit. They’re 24th in runs scored…which actually sounds about right when you look at the roster. Their pitching really isn’t that good. Being in first place after 9 games is good for them, sure, but they’re still going to need a lot of things to break their way just to finish above .500.
I disagree completely.
They have a young core of hitters in Markakis, Weiters and Jones (with Machado probably here by 2014). They have a great group of young pitchers in Tillman, Britton, and Matusz. Arrietta is not great, but I think he can be a serviceable fourth starter. From that group, they certainly have the financial resources to buy the remaining pieces they need—I assume they go after Pujols or Fielder this off-season, for example.
You are right that the nine game start is irrelevant; I doubt the pitching will be consistent enough for them to even think about competing in that division this year and Guthrie will eventually turn into the pumpkin his peripherals say he is. That being said, I think the future is bright over the next few years. I don’t see why you don’t think they haven’t made a total commitment to rebuilding mode—-look at their team last year. Buying one year rentals at positions where you don’t have prospects is not refusing to rebuild, it is just using financial resources to put a better team on the field now while you rebuild.
You named three young hitters
And Adam Jones isn’t really all that good. They have a farm system ranked in the 20s. That’s not going to cut it in that division, where you have baseball’s two biggest budgets and two other teams with top ten farm systems.
I like Britton and Matsuz, but Tillman is nothing all that great, either, like you say about Arrieta. Two good pitchers, two good hitters (even one of those two good hitters is still just living on the promise of two good minor league years). Some average and mediocre young players around them, while constantly trying to plug holes in free agency. In that division, it’s not enough.
It’s okay to try to put a decent team on the field while rebuilding, and nothing wrong with one year contracts. But still, $8 million for Vlad? Unlikely he’s worth that much, and it’s not going to get them above fourth place, if that. And Baltimore has a fairly weak presence in signing the young, international prospects-imagine putting that $8 million into aggressive attacking the international FA market. That’s a decent purse to throw around. And even if you can’t find enough prospects to spend it on internationally, you put it into trying to sign over-slot guys via the draft.
These players they’re trying to build around simply aren’t going to really compete with the Red Sox or Yankees. I mean, Carl Crawford will still be loads better than Adam Jones in three years. Adrian Gonzalez will still be loads more valuable than Markakis in three years. Britton and Matsuz aren’t likely to surpass Lester and Lackey.
The only reason that the farm system is ranked in the 20's...
…is that they just graduated a crop of players. They were 8th in 2010, and 9th in 2009 according to BA, dropping to 21st this year because of the graduations. I think Tillman is better than you give him credit for; I think he can be a solid 2, if not an ace, which works fine behind Britton and Matusz. Given that Crawford has a career 106 OPS+ and Jones has a career 96 OPS+, while Crawford is better now, he isn’t loads better now, so I don’t see how he will be in the future, either. Gonzalez will be better than Markakis, but hell, the Orioles can sign a Fielder or Pujols who will be competitive. And Lackey is aging quickly and isn’t as good as Matusz or Britton right now (well, Matusz is on the DL, so you could argue that), and I can easily see Matusz becoming as good as Lester.
As for Vlad’s $8 million, yeah it was an overpay, but it is a one year deal, so I don’t see how that will affect next year at all for Baltimore. And it certainly won’t three years from now. I think the Orioles are finally on the upswing. It probably won’t be this year, but I think they will have a good young rotation very soon, and that will leave them enough money to buy the hitters they need to compliment the ones they already have.
You're really stretching some evaluations.
Crawford is a 4.8 WAR guy (that’s his average production for a full season). He’s above average offensively and above average defensively. He’s just coming off a 7 WAR season. Adam Jones is just coming off a 2.3 WAR season. He’s below average offensively and defensively for his career (though he was an above average hitter, slightly, last year). He’s well out of the league of someone like Crawford. And in three years, he probably still will be unless he learns how to take a walk.
It’s also a stretch to think that Orioles will be signing Fielder or Pujols. Sure, the Red Sox and Yankees are unlikely to get involved in that bidding…but then, you never know with the Yankees. And the Orioles are hardly the team with the biggest assets outside of them. If you’re going to say “Well, the Orioles COULD sign this guy and have a better team,” then you could say that about every single team in the league, and it’s absolutely meaningless. And I don’t know how you’re making the argument that Britton and Matusz are better than Lackey right now. Based on what…Lackey getting off to a slow start this season? That’s ridiculous assertion.
No.
Based on Lackey’s season last season. Matusz and Lackey had identical ERA+’s (well 99 to 98). Matusz’s SIERA was slightly better (4.22 to 4.28). (And yes, I know Lackey’s FIP and xFIP were better, but I think SIERA is a better stat.) Assuming that they were equal last year and Matusz at the age of 24 was likely to improve while Lackey at the age of 32 was likely to decline, yes, I would say Matusz is better than Lackey right now. Obviously, Britton has pitched too few innings in the majors to know right now, but his prospect pedigree, his far too small sample size in the bigs, and my guy instinct tell me that he’s better than Lackey, too. Time, of course, will tell.
As for Jones v. Crawford, yes Crawford is better defensively, but now he is playing in the most defensively irrelevant outfield spot in the majors in front of the monster. His range will be wasted half of the games because there just isn’t much ground to cover. Jones’s defense, however, isn’t nearly as bad as you describe: his UZR/150 over his career, which is the only number relevant as Jones just has three seasons and samples smaller than that are not statistically accurate, is -1.8. Basically, he is a league average centerfielder.
Finally, I am not sure where you get the idea that the Orioles don’t have tons of cash. They offered Teixeira 7/$150 a couple of years ago. They have about $50 million in obligations for next year when expected arbitration salaries are included and have an opening day payroll of $86 million this year. Angelos is worth about $1.2 billion. They can afford to add two big free agents and will definitely be a player for Fielder/Pujols. The only other big money suitors I can see are the Cardinals (for Pujols only) and the Cubs. Obviously, we don’t know if they’ll get Fielder, but I think they have a good shot.
Based on Lackey’s season last season.
Surely if you’re smart enough to cite SIERA, FIP, and xFIP, you’re smart enough to realize that you’re purposely narrowing your sample to make a point. First, Lackey has a long track record of being an above average starter, and Matusz does not. Second, you’re making a very bold assumption in you’re “one guy is getting better while the other is declining.” Not all pitchers have the same aging curves, and good pitchers don’t necessarily decline at age 32. I can give you a list, but just people Braves fans are familiar with, look at the age 32-33 seasons of Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, Mike Hampton, and John Burkett. I didn’t even have to look that hard to find just former Braves, and left out the obvious Hall of Famers and HGH user Paul Byrd. At best, I’d call Matusz even, but he has no track record. I’m not even mentioning Clay Buccholz, or the fact that the Red Sox have greater financial flexibility. Plus the Red Sox have two really good pitching prospects of their own.
You’re seriously stretching everything just to make your case of the Orioles being competitive sometime before 2015. I don’t see it barring acts of God.
You're overlooking the fact
that Buck Showalter is the manager. In 2014 after he gets fired or quits, the O’s automatically win as a result. This has been science’d before; it’s a certainty.
I'm just an average American -- with extraordinary hair.
-Kenny Powers
As for Lackey...
…his career SIERA is 4.00. I just don’t think he has ever been anything more than an okay innings eater. In Fenway, that will (and has been) exposed in the more traditional stats. Obviously, you can’t tell what Matusz will do (and any pitcher can get hurt at any time) but I think it is definitely more likely than not that Matusz and Britton will both be better than Lackey by 2012 or 2013. Yes, pitchers (and all players) have uneven aging curves, but by and large, young players have a better chance of improving or not declining that older pitchers. As for your comparisons, Millwood hasn’t had a SIERA under 3.86 since he was 24 years old in 1999, not sure what you are talking about there. He had lucky seasons in 2005 and 2009 (at the ages of 30 and 34 respectively) but that doesn’t mean he was actually better in those years. Hampton is a worse comp for you; he never pitched more than 110 innings in a season after the age of 31 and he wasn’t any good after he signed in Colorado at the age of 28. Burkett didn’t particularly decline at the age of 32 or 33, but he was never really any good, (career SIERRA of 4.24), so I am not sure what he proves. Hudson and Lowe are good examples for you. I guess you are batting .400 with 2 of your five examples working.
As for Bucholz, he is young, and should be good, but his season last year was amazingly lucky (2.33 ERA, 4.29 SIERA). I would put him on par with Matusz and Britton.
And no, I am not really stretching anything. If the pitchers develop, it could happen easily. You never know if they will, but it is a good collection of young, live arms. I am sure you would have had to stretch everything in 1990 to make the Braves competitive before 1995.
nope
that’s Wieters and Machado (who’ll be up sooner than people think).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 13, 2011 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Here’s the question- what’s going to be the big mid-season need.
I think one reliever is possible- but I think we can be covered there, we have one great LOOGY in EOF, and Venters can do it also. CF if McLouth doesn’t shape up will be the big problem.
I wonder what the Mets would ask for in terms of Beltran- I know he can barely play CF- but with Prado and Heyward at the corners, he wouldn’t have to cover as much ground, we’d just have to use Matt Young in left on days Chipper can’t play or give Beltran the day off also.
No way to know the need now.
Usually it is injuries or surprisingly ineffective performance that causes those needs. As for Beltran, he could probably be had cheaply, but this would assume him staying healthy that long.
Maybe Schafer keeps up his hot start
and they bring him up for another trial run.
Still think McLouth is going to even out around .265, though. Hopefully, he’ll start walking a little more too, so his OBP should be okay.
Some lineup rosterbating since I've refrained so far...
If I had my way, and I’ve said this in a previous thread… If McLouth continues to have a subpar year, we push him to the bench, call up Schafer and plug him into the leadoff spot. We would then push Prado to the 2 hole and we’d have the speed guy at the top we’ve lacked for a while.
Schafer
Prado
Chip
Uggla
McCann
Heyward
Gonzo
Freeman
Bench
McLouth
Hinske
Conrad
Hicks
Young
Ross
Boscan (Would drop him to bring up Schafer)
This would quiet the lineup guys (at least until Schafer struggled) and would, in my mind be a very potent playoff lineup. Imagine having McLouth as our number 1 guy off the bench playing all the OF positions.
That’s just my opinion.
Continues to have?
Aside from the fact that it’s only been 11 games, Nate’s not doing too poorly compared to the rest of our lineup right now. Give him another 20 or 30 games before you declare it a subpar start :)
Also, I still haven’t seen anything to indicate that Schafer would do much better than Nate at this point. Maybe that changes later in the year…
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Although the speed doesn't matter much...
…because you don’t really want to be running in front of your best hitters, Schafer would be fine leading off if he could repeat his 2007 and 2008 minor league OBPs (.374 and .378) in the majors, although thinking he can do that right away is a bit of a stretch. Also, that lineup continues to put the best hitter sixth, which is a bit silly. It also unnecessarily puts McCann and Heyward back to back, making it easier to teams to use the lefties in their bullpens more effectively. I think Heyward 4th, Uggla 5th, McCann 6th, would be the best way to change that lineup effectively.
I don't really have a problem with that...
The more I think about it… I just really don’t have a comment other than I’d be ok w/ that.
I’m glad we have problems like this. Trying to figure out how to maximize the ABs for our great hitters. What a great year and time to be a Braves fan. :-)
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
June Blockbuster
Needing to make room at several levels, Frank Wren scratches his head, pours himself a scotch and picks up the phone.
FW: Information? Hello, connect me with the front offices of the Pittsburg Pirates please
Operator: right away sir, that will be $1.50
FW: thanks, we can afford that
Pittsburg: Thank you for calling the Pirates, how may I direct your call, are you interested in season tickets, please, please, please?
FW: No thank you, the GM’s office please, this is FW calling, make it pronto!
Pitts GM: FW! How’s my boy Nate?
FW: Lookin’ good, frosted his hair or some such shit, but he’s back on track
Pitts GM: Good to hear, what can I do you for?
FW: You’ve got a kid out in CF, McCrutcher or something like that, young guy, long hair. I was wondering if you’d consider sending him to Atl for a good pitcher?
Pitts GM: We’ve already talked about Kamakazi or whatever that guys name is, I want a young’un if we’re talking about the same CF I think we are.
FW: We’ve got a bearded wonder, mid 20’s with 4 years of team control left, kid named Handsome or something like that, ever see him pitch?
Pitts GM: (drooling) Yeah, I’ve seen him, he’s not bad, but I’d hate to not have a CF all of a sudden. Any chance you could throw in my boy Nate?
FW: Done, they are on a plane today, get that kid with the hair headed this way.
Pitts GM: Done (hangs up), then mutters, I snuckered him again
FW: hangs up then mutters, I snuckered him again.
FW: Screaming down the hall at the top of his lungs…Fredi! Take your pick, Minor or Teheran?
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
funny... humorous... but
PASS. I don’t like that particular option and look how their last CF worked out for us… How bout we discuss that Tabata kid. :-) Now I’m all in.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
McCutchen...
…is a far superior player to Tabata. I hope and assume I am missing a sarcasm font here.
This is actually a fun topic for me.
I agree that as of this very moment, McCutchen is a better player. However, long term I will make the bold prediction that Tabata will make this a difficult discussion.
I’m not smart enough to put all the fancy graphs and whatnot but put their numbers together. Tabata hits for better average, strikes out less, stolen bases are fairly equal, a moderately better fielder… Yes I am cherry picking stats but I want to be clear that these guys will make that Pit OF incredibly good. Tabata is 2 years younger too…
So while my comment was kinda tongue in cheeck. I think this could be a topic of conversation.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
Hanson for McCutchen
Is an interesting idea. Verrrrrryyy interesting
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn (Braun?)
no it's not
McCutchen for Teheran + Schafer is a deal that the Pirates should think about
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 13, 2011 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
I used Hanson and McCutchen because they are pretty equal in service time and reputation. Adding Nate gives Pittsburgh a CF/OF and the Braves salary relief. Tabata looks like he could be a good player, but he’ll be cheaper for the Pirates for a longer time, that must be considered.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
So... because I'm bored and curious
I looked up Tabata vs. McCutchen and found some interesting thing… Who do you think owns these stats (leave me alone about the SSS)
Player 1
RISP (94 AB): .255 Avg, 21 K, 38 RBI, 1 3B
RISP w/2 Out (46 AB): .217 Avg, 10 K, 19 RBI
Player 2
RISP (79 AB): .380 Avg, 7 K, 30 RBI, 3 3B
RISP w/2 Out (34 AB): .441 Avg, 5 K, 17 RBI
The ABs are off by a bit but if I told you Player 2 was Tabata, would you believe me?
Again, i’m not a stat junkie but I do like inducing thought provoking arguments and I’d argue that I’d take Tabata over McCutchen.
Regardless of this all, it is not the point of your comment and I don’t wanna take away from it. It was funny and serves the function of provoking thought. I just wanted people to consider there might be a better OF option on the Pit team. :-)
by Klemson Krash on Apr 13, 2011 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Two different arguments here
Yeah, Tabata’s probably going to be the better player in the long run. But he’s going to cost us a fair bit more than McCutchen would.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
If Tabata would cost us more than McCutchen...
…we should definitely go after McCutchen. Unfortunately, he won’t.
You don’t think the ‘rats have a higher opinion of his ceiling than we do? I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to the other orgs, but everything I have heard (which may be a small sample size) led me to think that they have a pretty high opinion of him.
I’d say even if he cost more, I’d personally rather have McCutchen, regardless of his potential upside (or lack thereof).
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Of course they do.
Hence my comment at the end that he won’t. McCutchen is obviously better and has more upside than Tabata. The Braves know it and the Pirates know it. McCutchen isn’t going anywhere. I was not saying anything was realistic, I was mostly just snarkly disagreeing with your statement that Tabata is probably going to be a better player in the long run. He isn’t.
Tabata’s probably going to be the better player in the long run
I’m gonna have to strongly disagree with this.
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn (Braun?)
That's cool
This is me going off of little bits and pieces I’ve heard.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Any specific bit of info? I’m know much much less about Tabata than I do about McCutchen.
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn (Braun?)
I'd have to go digging, really.
Stuff I’ve heard during games, etc. (damn you, Chip Caray) led me to believe that Tabata had a better upside than McCutchen. Now that I’m looking through the conversation here and over their relative performances, I’d have to disagree with that assessment.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
I would honestly take either one of them
but… Tabata is 2 years younger, already has better plate discipline, hitting better this year (in SSS) than McCutchen and by the end of the year, if anyone wants to doubt my assertion that Tabata will be the better player, I will happily listen.
I’m ok with being wrong but I like the stats I see. I’ve not been able to personally scout them and I’m probably going to ask the Pirates fans their take since they are the experts. Just in my looking, if I were running my own franchise and had a choice between the two, I’d take Tabata over McCutchen. I don’t think I’d have said that a day ago but after looking, I’d be very comfortable w/ that choice.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 5:24 AM EDT up reply actions
That's because you must be misreading the stats.
For starters, you state that Tabata has better plate discipline. This is simply not true. Tabata has a 7.5 BB% and McCutchen has a 10.8 BB%. McCutchen’s plate discipline is decent, Tabata’s is not very good. Tabata has a lower K% (14.7 to 12.5), but that isn’t plate discipline and isn’t particularly important. McCutchen has far better power (that is, he has power, while Tabata is a slap hitter who doesn’t have any).
Tabata had a .334 wOBA and 2.0 WAR last year.
McCutchen had a .363 wOBA and 3.3 WAR last year.
McCutchen’s better and it isn’t even particularly close. The only stats you have raised to support your choice are hitting with RISP (which is luck), K% (which isn’t particularly important at the rates they both have), and two weeks of 2011 (which is just silly).
Suffice it to say, I doubt your assertion. Even if McCutchen ends up having a poor season for him and Tabata a good one for him, McCutchen will still be the far better player going forward. As noted elsewhere, Tabata’s upside is Juan Pierre—Tabata doesn’t walk enough to have a good OBP and he has little power. That is not a good upside combination.
You like McCuthen... got it...
I respect your opinion however, I believe you’re misreading my analysis.
I explained my use and even caveoted it multiple times. I put thoughts out there for people to consider and perhaps do some digging on their own just to see how good Tabata could be… I’ve done that and I’ve exhausted my mediocre ability to analyze a player based solely on statistics.
If you want to doubt me, that is your choice. Even though these guys aren’t Braves and probably not even on the scope of possibility, I have enjoyed the dialog so far. At the end of this year, we will see where each player stands and if I’m wrong about Tabata steping up to stand on the same platform as McCutchen, I will happily eat my words. Until then, it’ll be fun to watch their progressions respectively.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 9:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I am just confused about your basis.
You haven’t cited any meaningful statistics showing that Tabata is better, and you said Tabata has better plate discipline, which is clearly not the case; Tabata has poor plate discipline. I am still not sure what your reasoning is: is can’t just be the small two week sample size of this season and Tabata’s contact ability with no plate discipline, those just aren’t rational reasons to think one player is better than another.
Both are young, so either could develop more than the other, but I don’t see how McCutchen isn’t far ahead right now.
I'm on the bandwagon
I think McCutchen is an absolute star in the making and Tabata, while he could be a good player, is nothing that special.
"Is Prince Fielder a legitimate threat to your bag of potato chips?" -Bronn (Braun?)
I disagree completely.
Tabata is not as good now, and I doubt he will ever be as good. The RISP numbers are irrelevant: as has been argued ad infinitum here, “clutch” hitting is not a repeatable skill. The numbers could just as easily be reversed next year. It is essentially luck, not skill.
As for skills, McCutchen wins hands down. McCutchen has moderate power while Tabata has very little. McCutchen has much better patience/pitch recognition skills, with a solid 10% of so BB rate, while Tabata was about 6% last year. McCutchen also had a higher LD%. Tabata, meanwhile, had only a good batting average that was fueled by a high BABIP. Hitters can control BABIP, but Tabata’s was fueled by an extremely high groundball percentage (almost 60%), not a great line drive percentage. Basically, Tabata is a decent slap hitter, like Juan Pierre light. That doesn’t leave much room for improvement, because any rise in power will mean more flyballs and hence, a lower batting average. Tabata may be young, but his skill set does not look like one that can produce anything better than it did last year. And McCutchen is already better than that.
I never used the word clutch.
I pulled real stats. Sure things could change this year but let’s look at the stats from the season so far….
Tabata
40 AB, 13 H, 11 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 5 SB, 5 K =.320 Avg, .460 OBP, .525 Slug
McCutchen
39 AB, 9 H, 4 R, 2 HR, 6 RBI, 0 SB, 3 K =.231 Avg, .318 OBP, .436 Slug
SSS aside, Tabata is riding a hot streak and could cool off… McCutchen obviously will pick it up. I don’t want those stats to be the basis of the argument but to say one is hands down the better ball player…
I would like to submit that Tabata is the better fielder already. He may overtake McCutchen in the hitting department as early as this year. Maybe I’m on crack and that’s ok too…
All I ask is consider it and then watch the two of them this year.. and we can revisit this later. :-)
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 6:00 AM EDT up reply actions
Let's be fair, now
when you’re talking about stats w/ RISP, you’re basically talking about clutch.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
I know how that word is demonized here...
so in order not to get harrassed too much, I just put the number out there and let people think it themselves. I don’t find the stat to be super useful but it does tell a story…
And because i’m an equal opportunist, in this young season, McCutchen is hitting .231 w/ 2HR and 6 RBI w/ RISP in 13 ABs while Tabata is hitting .000 in 4 AB so far this season..
I will admit it’s a cherry picked statistic and doesn’t mean much over the course of a normal season but… considering Tabata was a rookie and McCutchen has been around a couple extra years (1000 PA). It’s pretty impressive…
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 9:22 AM EDT up reply actions
But... it's not really impressive
your stats with RISP and with RISP (2 out) are going to be largely luck-based.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Using RISP = talking about clutch
As I said, it is luck. Remember how great Yunel was with RISP in 2009? What happened to that in 2010? Nobody sustains great numbers with RISP, and honestly, if they do, it makes me wonder if they aren’t trying hard enough with the bases empty.
As for 2011, two weeks of stats are meaningless. 2010 is much more meaningful, and McCutchen is the far better hitter. As for fielding, Tabata is playing left, a much easier position to field than center. His defensive numbers are better, but if you switched the positions of the two, the defensive numbers would probably reverse. If the Pirates thought Tabata was the better fielder, he would be in center. Personally, I think it is about even.
Again, other than the laughably small sample size of 2011, I don’t see any significant stats where Tabata is better or even particularly close to McCutchen. Look at stuff like OBP, wOBA, OPS, SLG, etc, and McCutchen is easily better in all of them.
Final comment from me on this topic.
You are both correct and I’ve never denied it.
The gap isn’t as big as one may think and it is closing quickly.
Would love to revisit this discussion at mid-season or post-season to see how things fall. It will be an entertaining year in Pitt if only for those two…
As an aside, I still don’t know who the heck Neil Walker is or where he came from… :-)
by Klemson Krash on Apr 14, 2011 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Neil Walker.
He was a former high round draft pick, who was a bit of a bust, but broke out in the minors last year, made the majors, and hasn’t looked back.
really?
how bout we discuss that Tabata kid
sure. the one who’s NEVER shown much power in the minors (or much speed)? He’s all tools. He’s, actually, Juan Pierre with better defense.
Anyone who says he will EVER be better than McCutchen makes me want to be a Pirates fan.
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Apr 13, 2011 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
I take take so long to write my response...
…and someone beats me to the Pierre comp. Well done!
And if we wanted a downside comp...
…Tabata’s rookie year is earily similar to the ROY campaign of Jerome Walton in 1989.
OMG YOU GUYS
Sherrill for Gardner. Make it happen, FW.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Probably not, but Venters or EOF? We could probably part with one of them without killing our pen, though Gardner probably isn’t going anywhere for a relief pitcher.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Apr 15, 2011 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If we get rid of Venters or EOF, I will drive to FW's office
and cry myself silly.
THE NL WEST WILL NAIL YOU IN THE RUSTY GROIN WITH SOMETHING --TheLetter2
www.duwanis.com
Depends on the return. It would certainly take a lot for me to be ok with parting with Venters, but EOF I could live with.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Apr 15, 2011 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
We should do Venters for Gardner in a heartbeat.
The Yankees, however, won’t, so it is all academic.
EOF and maybe a minor leaguer for Eduardo Nunez?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Apr 15, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Would that really help us?
I guess Nunez would be better than Hicks, but I don’t think his ceiling is any high than Alex Gonzalez.
Why?
I don’t see the fascination with a guy that has a .687 OPS in the minors, poor plate discipline (5.6 BB% in the minors), and has a glut of errors when he’s in the field.
Other than their age, how is he any different than Diory?
Follow me on Twitter at @JakeHumphrey91
by Jake Humphrey on Apr 15, 2011 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Not Venters. None of the bullpen studs. But I love Gardner
He’s uber underrated. Jurrgens is so injury prone, but also elite ace level talented. Teheran should be ready you would think if he has a good year in Gwinnett. Give the Yanks a mid tier relief pitcher- one that’s not a legit big league bullpen ace candidate- and some random unimportant AA or AAA outfielder to go along with Jair. That really does get me extremely excited.
This could also get me into a lineup discussion. Who’s the player left out if we get Gardner? Give Nate with Jurrgens? What about KK instead of Jair? I just like Nate too much right now to trade for Gardner, but I could see a move to 3rd for Prado after Chip’s gone.
Soo….
Gardner LF
Heyward RF
Prado 3B
Uggla 2B
McCann C
McLouth CF
Gonzalez/Drew/[Insert Name Here] SS
Freeman 1B
I’d LOVE this lineup in 2012, especially with a SS that’s not a rental, that can hit at least .270 with some pop and Gonzo caliber hands. And Chipper.
I love phenoms. Some of my favorite include Frason Freeward, Bratt Rymes, and Isaaron Murrell.
by Cody Arrington on Apr 17, 2011 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions
Gardner would be in center...
…and McLouth won’t be on the roster. We certainly aren’t picking up his option. Chipper will still be manning third and Prado in left. All nice, but the Yankees aren’t trading us Gardner.
MLBTR says Derosa is probably the odd man out in San Francisco. What kind of pretty ribbon can we wrap Kenshin in to make San Fran’s GM swap bad contracts with us. Derosa on the bench would solve a lot of problems.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Hold on to that thought...
…until Ross and Torres get back from the DL (around the first of May). At that point, the Bochy will either have to unload a veteran or send Brandon Belt back to AAA (where he belongs) and wear egg on his face.
Also, Zito went on the DL and the Giants don’t have any SP prospects at AAA. Wren may have to throw in a prospect or $1M (other teams like the Twins and Phillies might also be interested in DeRo), but it’s not a far-fetched idea.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
from: carloscollazo06
So this is a recent post I had up on my WordPress blog and I wanted to bring it over here to see what you guys thought about it all. I was thinking about the time in the season where we inevitably have to trade someone, and these are some of the names who have been thrown around, and some of the names I think could fit in Atlanta. Let me know what you think…
Jose Reyes: This has been one of those long-shot trades that I don’t think really has a chance to happen. Reyes hasn’t had a complete season since 08 and his injuries have come in the ‘prime’ of his career. Reyes is also going into free agency this year so if a trade happens its likely a rental. The only reason this trade is even being discussed is because the Mets are throwing players out right now to get as much cash as they can. I also don’t think there is any real need to get Reyes because Gonzalez is a slick fielder and isn’t an offensive liability (like so many Braves fans suggest) so we will throw this one out the door.
Justin Upton: Now there might be a real need to go out and get a center fielder this season, if Nate McLouth succumbs to the media, and the fan criticism and whatever else causes batters to not bat. That being said I am one of the ‘pro-McLouth’ guys out there and although I don’t agree with him batting second I think he will have a good year and be a 2-3 WAR player which is fine with me.
Now back to the Upton brother I am supposed to be talking about. Justin Upton has been regarded by many as the Upton brother with more potential and a more complete (and younger) player. While some say he has already reached his potential, that’s just not very common for 23 year olds. So I will continue to believe that he will get better.
And yes I also know he plays right field but any right fielder with his speed and athleticism will most likely transition into a perfectly reliable (excellent maybe?) center fielder. Just think of Heyward and Upton patrolling the grass of Turner field together… That sounds pretty sweet, which is why Justin Upton would be my first pick for a trade if the Braves and Frank Wren were inclined to make one.
The drawbacks to this trade are that the Diamondbacks are undoubtedly going to be asking for a whole lot in return. Good thing the Braves have asurplus* load of starting pitching to offer up to a rebuilding Arizona club. While I am not recommending a farm-famine Teixeira-type deal I would give up some prospects for a player like (Justin) Upton.
*There is no such thing as a surplus of pitching. If anyone told you this, then they lied. Plain and simple.
Brett Gardner: Brett is probably my second best choice as a center field option for two main reasons: 1) he is on the Yankees who are desperate for starting pitching (who’s that Nova guy?) and 2) he has speed, good OBP and is likely to be undervalued on with the Yankees line up he is on. I also don’t think Gardner has reached his full potential with his breakout season coming last year when he put up:
.277 AVG, .383 OBP, 132 hits, and 47 SB
While he did strike out 101 times and only walked 79 that was his second season playing more than a hundred games and he has gotten better every year since joining the big leagues.
In Atlanta he could provide the long-missed ‘true lead-off’ guy and really score some runs. What’s really impressive is that .383 OBP he put up. I mean Jason Heyward put up .393 last year. The thought of those two at the top of the lineup with Gardner’s ability to steal and Heyward’s ability to drive him in is a bit scary.
Offer up Jurrjens and some other minor league mid tier prospect and hope the Yankees still think they will ‘contend’ this year and we can pick up Gardner. They need SP like no one in baseball and we have SP like no one in baseball. Sounds like a good match up to me.
Jacoby Ellsbury- So the only real reason I thought of Jacoby Ellsbury was because when I thought of the Yankees and Brett Gardner, I thought of the Red Sox and their own speedy young outfielder. Ellsbury is scary fast and in his full seasons in the bigs got 50 (in 145 games) and 70 (in 153 games) stolen bases. While he gets more stolen bases I think Gardner has more potential to be the better hitter and Ellsbury also doesn’t walk or strikeout very much. While the strikeouts definitely isn’t a problem you would want the lead off guy (he doesn’t necessarily have to lead off but…) to take some walks.
*Also why Prado would be much better suited to 6 spot in the lineup but I still have no problem with him leading off when you look at all of our options and his high batting average
When I think of this trade, compared to the Gardner one, I just don’t get as excited. While the Red Sox might need some pitching they aren’t exactly desperate to get it and seem to like Jacoby a lot. I don’t see him being worth whatever we would have to give up for him.
Stephen Drew- One of the few bright spots on the Diamondbacks big league team, I think Stephen Drew is one of the more underrated shortstops in the game which is surprising since people always love to complain about the lack of quality at that position. But anyways… heres for all the stat heads out there:
2009: .261 AVG .320 OBP 12 HR 12 3B 29 2B 87 K 49 BB
2010: .278 AVG .352 OBP 15 HR 12 3B 33 BB 108 K 62 BB
So there you go. The thing I noticed is the triples. Thats a pretty good amount of the hardest hit in the game to get. Maybe its the park, maybe he is just good at getting extra base hits I don’t know. But I do know that Stephen Drew would be a great number 7 bat in our lineup. I mean great. He hits third most of the time for the Diamondbacks and would probably get more RBI opportunities further back in an Atlanta lineup. Let’s compare him to Alex Gonzalez’s hitting stats from 09 and 10:
2009: .238 AVG .279 OBP 8 HR 0 3B 22 2B 65 K 20 BB
2010: .250 AVG .294 OBP 23 HR 3 3B 42 2B 118 K 31 BB
So without looking to hard you can see that Drew is definitely the better hitter. He has a higher average, on-base-percentage, more extra base hits, less strikeouts, more walks, and if you look over there entire careers Drew hits home runs in the teens much more consistently than A-Gon.
As far as defensively I would say Drew is about league average but you can’t quote me on that. He is definitely not as slick as Gonzalez but he is not a defensive liability. I don’t really like any of the defensive stats and metrics out there but I will ask around, try to find the best one to use, and get back to you.
As far as what we would have to give up, it would be a little less that Justin Upton but it would still be a handful of nice prospects. A major league ready pitcher with a few top prospects thrown in maybe? I don’t know but anything like that I would be fine with.
BJ Upton: Well we have talked about the younger brother thought to be available, lets move on to the elder who is also thought to be available… just playing across the country. BJ Upton is really a wild card. He has been all over the place throughout his career and the only thing you can really be sure of is him picking up stolen bases.
He is good in the field but I would be extremely careful trading with the Rays now because of those genius’s that they have in the front office. Everyone they trade magically sucks after that. So right now I think I would actually be disappointed if we gave up some of our fantastic pitching prospects to pick up this Upton boy. They could be used to get a much more consistent quality player.
Sorry if its a bit long, I am new to the fan posts thing so I am not sure what the ‘average length’ for these fan posts are but I will learn.
Seems like we match up best with the Yankees, and I’d much rather lose a pitcher to the AL where he can’t kick our butts for the next 5 years. I’d like Reyes if we could sign him for 3 more years, but he already makes $11M, don’t know if Wren will pay what he will cost. Wren seems to like mid season trades, I expect him to try to get a SS or CF by the deadline, maybe even in June. Hope he makes a good deal.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
There are a few issues with the ideas.
The biggest being that they aren’t realistic.
As for Reyes, yes, Gonzalez is an offensive liability, but Reyes isn’t that much better, and a good fielding weak hitting shortstop isn’t that big of a problem. Given that the Mets would want a lot for a rental and it is within division, I don’t see it happening.
Justin Upton & Stephen Drew. Both are good/great players. The Diamondbacks aren’t giving either of them up. If you don’t want to do a Teixeira type trade, the Diambacks aren’t going to do it. Towers dangled Upton in the offseason and all the GM’s who asked him about Upton came away saying he wasn’t really available because he wanted way too much for anything to be feasible. And at that time, Towers said Drew was not available at all. Not going to happen.
Gardner: The Yankees aren’t likely to give him up as he is helping them win now. If they have to trade for pitching, they’ll move one of their zillion catching prospects.
As for Ellsbury and BJ Upton: I agree, they aren’t that good and aren’t likely to be worth the expected cost.
We need to find a way to get Mark Derosa. He would make a lot of sense for this team, but he’s most definitely not worth his 6 million dollar contract.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
That's the problem.
I don’t see why a 6 million dollar utility guy is more helpful to us than the Giants.
Twins struggling
…and then Mauer goes on the DL with a mysterious diagnosis. If they blow things up midseason, they have some interesting guys in the last year of their deal, one of those being Michael Cuddyer. What would be a package that would make sense to bring in a RH hitter with the ability to play 1B/3B/corner OF?
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
I absolutely love Cuddyer
He can actually play any position (maybe not perfect). He’s such a team guy and he’d look great in our uniform.
I don’t think the Twins will let him go though and I see him signing a team friendly extension because he loves the Twins and they love him.
If we can make it work, then we could probably get away with not sending one of our top flight pitchers… Mike Minor and a B prospect would make sense to me. I think Minnesota will severely overvalue him though.
by Klemson Krash on Apr 19, 2011 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions
Cuddy
He wants to maintain his current salary, so no way the Twins can afford to resign him at that level ($10.5M in 2011). As a rental, I don’t think he’d cost near Minor to acquire. I was thinking along the lines of Hoover/DeVall/Spruill, and probably two of them to complete it. He’s got to show that he’s the 2009 Cuddy and not the 2010 Cuddy, though, to even get that package. $5+M is a lot of money to pay a rental who’s putting up a .325 wOBA
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Apr 24, 2011 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions
The Orioles will never give up Mike Gonzalez. When he signed with them, they immediately rated him their best PLAYER on the whole team.
Meanwhile, I don’t care how much of salary dump we have on KK, I want him gone. He’s not even good at the AA-level. Let’s trade for lefty Zach Britton. He’s decent into his young career, and looks promising on his bio.
http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=502154
Heyward lines a shot off the back of Collin Ballester, the Nats' pitcher and into left center field. The hit was so brutal, even Heyward could feel the vibration coming back at him.
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