Dan Uggla: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview

by gondeee on Mar 8, 2011 9:08 AM EST in Community Projections

It's time to project the new guy. The Atlanta Braves made the first big move of the baseball off-season by acquiring Dan Uggla from the Marlins, and then the team signed him to a long-term contract before he had ever played a game in a Braves uniform. Uggla is ours for the next half decade ... that's still sinking in for me. Yes, I need to see a great season out of him before that contract will sit well with me, but I'm warming up to him.

Uglo has hit more home runs in each of the last four seasons than any Atlanta Braves hitter. He brings with him that right-handed power we've so desperately been searching for. Looking at his stats Uggla seems to like hitting at Turner Field. His lifetime slash line at the Ted is .354/.399/.652, which is crazy good, even though it's probably a small sample size at just 199 plate appearances.

But is that a fluke, or does he just hit well wherever he plays against Braves pitching? His slash line against Braves pitching in his former Florida home park is .218/.285/.460 in 191 PA. Even though his ISO is not too far apart, there's enough of a difference to raise more than one eyebrow and send a sliver of excitement throughout the body. What do you all think?

Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.

>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Dan Uggla's 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.

Dan Uggla's Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). Kent has a good HOF case; lots of other good players in there.

Joe Gordon (921) *
Jeff Kent (917)
Gene Tenace (894)
Damion Easley (891)
Bret Boone (889)
Mike Lowell (886)
Jose Valentin (881)
Hank Thompson (879)
Chase Utley (879)
Rich Aurilia (876)

Dan Uggla Trivia Fact: With one more 25-HR season, he will tie the record for most by a second baseman. Jeff Kent and Ryne Sandberg each have six; Uggla is tied with Hall of Famers Joe Gordon and Ryne Sandberg with five.

If you want some in depth reading on Uggla's defense, see here and here.

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Comments

Sandberg has both 5 and 6 25 HR seasons?

by joshmaurer on Mar 8, 2011 9:19 AM EST reply actions

And

Kent only has six, but not five

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 9:24 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

Sorry,

that should read:

“Jeff Kent and Ryne Sandberg each have six; Uggla is tied with Hall of Famers Joe Gordon and Rogers Hornsby with five.”

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 8, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions

Is

199 plate appearances at the Ted really a small sample size? Its a third of a season

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 9:25 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Gondee’s being optimistically pessimistic

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Mar 8, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

It is a good sample size. That is about 2/3 of a season, as 1/2 his games would be played on the road.

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:24 AM EST up reply actions

Considering the sporadic nature in which the sample was obtained...

for 3 days here and there over a 5 year period, I’d think small sample size is a good description.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 8, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

That

Choosing would make it more random, making it an even better sample, not a worse one

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 10:36 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I think the opposite is true.

He has done this over the course of 3 visits (9 games) per season over 5 seasons. That indicates consistency. I would consider it a SSS if it was all at once, such as a hot streak, a la Glaus last year.

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

Regardless of when the games were,

it is far too small of a sample. It means nothing.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 8, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions

Even if we were to think this is a good sample size, there’s no park factor at Turner Field significant enough to equate for a true 200+ point slugging increase and 90+ point batting average increase over his career norms. A little common sense tells us not to take those numbers very seriously.

by YakuzaFro on Mar 9, 2011 1:03 AM EST up reply actions

HEY!

DO NOT let common sense get in the way of stats. Where do you think you are?

by CMassey on Mar 9, 2011 2:38 AM EST up reply actions

Absolutely, yes.

A third of a season is not enough to be drawing conclusions like this. In fact, it’s not even particularly close.

I’d want at least a season’s worth of data.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 8, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

.270 / 33 HRs / 110 RBIs

by BraveHawkeye on Mar 8, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions

Anyone know...

…How many homers has he hit at the Ted?

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:21 AM EST reply actions

199 PAs

12 HR
16 2B
01 3B

All with a .423 BABIP

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

That would project out to 18 HR at home over the course of a full season. Throw in 12-15 more on the road and he projects to hit 30-33 HR, which is just about his career average.

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

isnt that a really high BABIP?

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 8, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions

.300 is average

by kbertling353 on Mar 8, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

Overly Optimistic

Based on his career line at the Ted, I said-
.297 avg .362 obp and 38 HRs
Why not?

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 10:22 AM EST via mobile reply actions

38 HR in 199 PA? For real?

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:25 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

/sarcasm

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 10:27 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

OOOPS

That is your season projection, not an answer to my inquiry.

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions

I project a high probability of ogling. And also, Dan will play baseball of some kind.

LIVE EST

Tape-delayed for the West Coast

by TheLetter2 on Mar 8, 2011 10:29 AM EST reply actions

Uggling?

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

Yes…yes, indeed. I like the sound of that.

LIVE EST

Tape-delayed for the West Coast

by TheLetter2 on Mar 8, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions

You really need to put together your all-short/stocky guy team.

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Mar 8, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Kirby Puckett would be on it.
Perhaps Pete Rose, if we can lift his lifetime ban.

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions

Great minds...

I’ve actually thought about putting a list together, just for the heck of it.

LIVE EST

Tape-delayed for the West Coast

by TheLetter2 on Mar 8, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

So profound…

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 8, 2011 10:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

I’ve often been compared to Benjamin Disraeli, if Disraeli ogled baseball players.

LIVE EST

Tape-delayed for the West Coast

by TheLetter2 on Mar 8, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions

"You don't even know who I am"

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 8, 2011 11:00 AM EST up reply actions

(born Dec. 21, 1804, London, Eng. — died April 19, 1881, London) British politician and author who was twice prime minister (1868, 1874 – 80).

by DawgB on Mar 8, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

Is that from one Seth MacFarlane’s terrible animated shows?

(hint: all of them are)

LIVE EST

Tape-delayed for the West Coast

by TheLetter2 on Mar 8, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah...

and I’d agree with you on his shows, that is a moment that stood out to me, and was from before it’s cancellation if I’m not mistaken (I thought those weren’t as bad as the more recent stuff).

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 8, 2011 11:35 AM EST up reply actions

im so excited about this guy being on our team long term. i remember cursing him every time he would hit a homer against us (which was often)

by suicide bunting is a sin on Mar 8, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions

I have a feeling this projection will be on the low end:

650 PA, .260 / .350 / .490 with 30 HR.

The funny thing is, those are basically his career averages (rounded a bit). We should not be surprised if he does even worse than that (he’s been much worse in a couple of his seasons). Of course, he could do better, too, but his career averages should be a good over/under for our expectations.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 8, 2011 11:12 AM EST reply actions