Alex Gonzalez: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview
We pick back up with our fan projections for Atlanta Braves players with shortstop Alex Gonzalez. I'm also adding another topic for discussion into this thread, a discussion of whether or not Atlanta should go ahead and re-sign Gonzalez for the 2012 season.
Gonzo will only be in his age 34 season this year, and the prospects the Braves have in the minors are no sure thing to be Major League ready by the beginning of next year. He recently told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe (via MLBTR) that he'd like to stay in Atlanta "for a long time." A quick look over the potential free agent shortstops reveals very few options better than Gonzalez at short.
Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.
>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Alex Gonzalez' 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.
Alex Gonzalez' Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). It's way too awesome that the top comparable for Alex Gonzalez is the other Alex Gonzalez.
Alex Gonzalez (954)
Greg Gagne (917)
Eddie Miller (906)
Rich Aurilia (902)
Jeff Blauser (901)
Johnny Logan (892)
Shawon Dunston (891)
David Bell (888)
Davey Johnson (882)
Damion Easley (881)
Our Alex Gonzalez: .248/.294/.402 with an OPS of .695
Not our Alex Gonzalez: .243/.302/.391 with an OPS of .694
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I'd like to see how he hits and fields the first half
before saying yea or nay. He’s probably the best option offensively for 2012 at this point.
I also said .263-.332 w/ 14 HR.
by Torgo's Executive Powder on Mar 7, 2011 4:04 PM EST reply actions
His OBP is going to jump nearly 40 points? That would be impressive.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
Impressive is not the word. I believe “mythical” may be be what you’re going for.
"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
a discussion of whether or not Atlanta should go ahead and re-sign Gonzalez for the 2012 season.

"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
by J-Freak on Mar 7, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions 4 recs
Hahahah!
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions
Nice!
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
by bwellnjonesco on Mar 7, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
I kind of like having that nice .294 OBP in our lineup.
You don’t want guys clogging the bases…
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
The Yunel’s really help with that problem.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
He was also a flamboyant douchebag and literally no one on the team liked him. I really don’t mind that he’s gone.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions
Whoosh.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Oops. Fail on my part. That should not be a possessive “Yunels”.
I was using the new Vidro.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
….and when did we change Vidro to Yunel?
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Bronn did it the other day, I think.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
Whoops…must’ve missed it.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
I'm getting credit for it?
I’m glad, though. Vidro, at least, never hit into a higher-than-average number of double plays. Yunel does. So, unless we resign Yunel or something, we’ll call them Yunels.
Interestingly, Miguel Tejada has been the biggest NL GIDP culprit. He has the most seasons of leading the league at 5 as well as holding the record for most in an NL season at 32. Jim Rice is the biggest AL culprit with 4 seasons leading the league and most in a season at 36.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Mar 8, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions
I can't wait to see this discussion

Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
by Lennox on Mar 7, 2011 4:19 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I can’t wait to see the failed photobucket picture! :)
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
Let's wait and see.
It’s not like he’s going to be a huge commodity in the off-season even if he repeats 2010, which is highly unlikely.
If a guy like Tyler Pastornicky, Brandon Hicks, or Diory Hernandez has a big year, maybe we go with the in-house option for 2012. That’s still pretty unlikely, though, and I’m guessing we’ll end up either making a trade or signing a free agent other than Gonzalez. He seems like a good dude, but he’s just not very good at baseball.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
if Lucas is a good backup
i say sign reyes
he is awesome
with injury problems
and if we had a decent hitting backup SS we would be one of few teams that could afford to use a player like reyes who is great when he is healthy
I wouldn’t mind resigning him as a late-inning defensive replacement for less than $2M, but I don’t want him as the starter.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:26 PM EST reply actions
Agree
I don’t think anyone actually thinks he’s overpaid. Only that they don’t want him getting 500+ PA’s.
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
well i wouldnt mind seeing gonzalez signed after 2011. who else could we get? also gonzalez isnt really expensive to keep
by suicide bunting is a sin on Mar 7, 2011 4:28 PM EST reply actions
.240/.300/.365 12 HR
Worth re-signing on the cheap at the end of the year. If he wants over $2mil, let him walk.
I don’t see his average going down and his OBP going up. For his career, he’s a 248 .294 .402 hitter. He’ll probably post roughly the same slash line with a bit less power – something around the 12 HRs that you predict.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
WOW, I nearly hit his averages on the head
.248 / .295 / 14 HR’s
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Nice.
I hope you weren’t thinking those were regression numbers! :)
Fun fact: in 2007, his OBP was .272. Ouch.
I think he will probably put up something like a .240/.290/.400 line with roughly 12 HRs.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
I was at 600PA/.250/.300/13 HR, and as long as he continues his strong defense, I’ll take it for $2.5M.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions
i am thinking
265/295 with 16 homers
with his defense, in a position that is normally light hitting, his D and the difference in a whole game that the homers can make, I think he is more valuable than people give him credit for
I hope Ed Lucas emerges as last year’s Omar and we won’t have to sign Agon. That’d be nice.
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
This
I’m pulling hard for him to have a great season and give us reason to consider him as a starter next year.
"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
...or...
if Omar plays well for the Marlins, we just dump A-Gon and sign Omar to play SS for us in 2012 for $2.5M or so (he’ll be a FA at the end of this season, I’m pretty sure). Get Wren to apologize for sending him to Florida for a season with a nice cake and we’ll just welcome him back home like nothing happened.
by crimsonqueen9 on Mar 7, 2011 6:43 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think even Omar can repeat Omar last year… there were times when the dude was just an automatic base hit.
Don't let the green grass fool you.
by obfromsenatobie on Mar 7, 2011 8:25 PM EST up reply actions
Pardon the slight rosterbation ahead.
We are going to have a group of 6-7 prospects that should be about ready for the big league rotation by 2012. We also have Hudson, Hanson, Lowe, Jurrjens, and Minor under contract for 2012. I say we move a prospect or two for a nice shortstop.
The prospects I’m thinking about referenced above: Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino, Hoover, Oberholtzer, and Beachy.
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
I like that Wren has been stock piling arms, soon as we trade one or two away you can count on a TJS showing up and needing help. Look at the pen, if Kimbrel, Linebrink and Sherrill struggle this spring, we can throw Beachy, Lopez and Martinez in there and barely miss a beat with Venters as closer for a while.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
You can do a lot worse
Than having one of the best fielding shortstops in baseball hitting 7th where his bat factors in very little.
I don’t get all the AGon hate. The Braves lineup is likely the deepest in the NL this year and if any team can manage an all-glove SS its us. If he hits 13 homers and 26 doubles then I won’t be crying over my soup.
IMO 3B will be a much more pressing need in 2012, or LF if Prado switches to 3rd. SS is a defensive position, and re-signing a very good one for 2 million seems like a decent deal to me.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
SS is slowly turning into a premium offensive position. The days of Jeff Blausers are all but gone. Guys like Rollins, Tulo, Hanley, Jeter, etc have redefined the position to one of not only defensive finesse, but offensive power as well.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 5:06 PM EST up reply actions
Guy hit 23 homers and 42 doubles last year. Just sayin.
Inb4 “It was all Torontos ballpark rabble rabble”
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
17 while in Toronto vs 6 while in Atlanta is some pretty compelling evidence to your rabble.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions

"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
Eh, you know what I meant.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
You want to remove Rollins from that list right now
and also look at the actual numbers before making such statements as “SS is slowly turning into a premium offensive position”.
SS’s with over 400 plate appearances and a wOBA over .330? Hanley, Tulo, Fookie, and Stephen Drew. That’s the complete list, without a single AL SS on it. The days of soft hitting SSs are still here, as shown by Yunel, Andrus, Sea Bass, Izturis, Marco Scutaro, Alexei Ramirez, and even your aforementioned Jeter and Rollins. Now that performance enhancers are tested for, big slugging SSs appear to have stopped with it.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Nothing in life is sure
Except death, taxes, and Justin-Sanchez throwdowns.
"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
Am I wrong dude? Am I wrong?
Other than Hanley and Tulowitski, and to a somewhat lesser extent Drew, I have a hard time thinking of any projected starting SS who would be an upper echelon bat. It’s why I was so confident in last year’s bet with cb about Andrus making an All Star team soon (which the fat, lazy bastard has yet to pay up on). We are a far cry from 10 or so years ago when elite offensive players like ARod, Jeter, Tejada, Nomar, Rollins, and Renteria, among others, were picking in the middle infield.
This isn’t a “throwdown”, it’s already over. He’s just wrong if he thinks SS is becoming “a premium offensive position”. Aside from those 3 mentioned above, maybe a resurgent and healthy Jose Reyes (although health may be a huge obstacle), I’m having trouble thinking of a starting SS who’d qualify as “premium” offensively. If I’m spacing on someone, feel free to refresh my memory.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
My point wasn’t that SS is the new 1B. My point was that light-hitting SS are the exception now, and not the rule. SS who can’t hit for power or average are very rare. SS who can do at least one of those things are the norm, and there are a few who can do both.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
See the fangraphs link above...
quality hitting SS like Hanley and Tulo, those are the exception and not the rule. Light hitting SS are still the norm.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Let’s take a look at how the position has evolved over the last decade.
I can only go as far back as 2000 (that’s as far as ESPN will go back, and that’s the only place I know to find the stats by position by year), so we will go 2000, 2005 and 2010.
In 2000, there were 2 SS who had an OPS of .800 or better – Jeter and Tejada. 3 more had OPSs of .770 or better – Bordick, Furcal and Renteria.
4 SS hit 15 or more HR – Tejada, Bordick, Renteria and Jeter. 13 SS hit 20 or more doubles (not gonna list all of those names).
In 2005, 3 SS had an OPS of .800 or better – Tejada, Jeter and Peralta. 2 more had an OPS of .770 – Furcal and Rollins.
4 SS hit 15 or more HR – Tejada, Peralta, Jeter and Greene. 19 SS his 20 or more doubles.
In 2010, 3 SS had an OPS of .800 or better and 0 more had an OPS of .770 or better. The next highest was the .755 put up by Castro.
However, 8 SS hit 15 or more HR and 19 SS had 20 or more doubles.
So yes, the OPS is decreasing, but the power is increasing. It’s the lack of OBP that makes the OPS drop, not the lack of power.
Batting averages are on the rise, SLG is on the rise. Taking the walk is on the decline.
So in summary, the SS position IS becoming more of a power position, and not due to PEDs, since the numbers are only getting better since Mitchell and his investigation.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
I appreciate you going into the actual numbers, but it’s kind of ironic that you cite declining OBP and higher power since we’re talking about AGon. I know you don’t expect him to repeat his power numbers from last year, but he was one of the top power hitters at shortstop (plus Yunel had 0 with us, which was pretty striking). With OBP on the other hand, well, our boy Seabass isn’t exactly helping out with the decline at the position.
Gonzalez hit DINGERZ, I know – for 1/2 of a season. He hit 6 (count them, 6) with us.
He has hit 18 or more 3 times in his 12 year career. He had a powerful 1st half, but he is not one of the SS in the league who is boosting the power numbers.
And his OBP for his position is still well below the league average.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
Hey, I don’t expect much out of the guy either (and don’t want to re-sign him) but the declining OBP/rising slugging thing didn’t exactly match up with saying Gonzalez doesn’t fit the trends at the position. I don’t expect him to match last years HR numbers, but I do think that he’ll have above average power for the position and slug at a higher rate over the full season than he did while with the Braves last year. Doesn’t seem unreasonable.
I still wouldn’t re-sign him though. I’d expect the D to decline in his mid 30s and don’t see how we couldn’t find somebody, somehow, who could provide comparable D without being that much of an out machine.
Right – but he doesn’t have a rising average, and his power is not up there with the trend-setters – at least in an average season for him.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
declining OBP and rising slugging (which he didn't show either by the way, just raw #s of doubles and HRs)
also doesn’t indicate “premium offensive player” especially coming from someone who in blasting Sea Bass has spent so much time harping on OBP, OBP, OBP.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Fangraphs can do positionally and year by year
I stand by the above statement. Name me a “premier offensive player” at SS aside from Hanley and Tulo. You can’t do it because there isn’t one when you look at the decline of Jeter, Rollins, Reyes, among others.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Well, Jeter and Rollins have gotten older – that’s the reason for their decline, not a lack of PEDs.
Drew is in the premier offensive player category and when healthy, Reyes is. Reyes won’t hit for power, but he is a premier offensive player none-the-less.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
Drew's career ops+ is 99....
hardly “premier” imo. He’ll be 28 on opening day, so not likely with too much room for growth in his game. Of his 4 full seasons, 2 would put him on that precipice of “premier” although certainly not the same level as Hanley or Tulo. But his other 2 seasons have been pretty lackluster. Two years ago, he wasn’t bad, but he certainly wasn’t good either. It remains to be seen if he can string together a run of seasons like he did in 2010 or if he’ll just be an up and down player who ranges from good to bad.
Jose Reyes also turns 28 this year, and I agree, when healthy, he’s been in the premier category. Of course, being a Met and considering his last two years, that health question is a pretty significant one.
And reason for decline is immaterial. The point remains among opening day starting SSs there are only two who seem like locks for “premier” offensive status (Tulo and Hanley), a couple others who may or may not come close to that level (Drew, Reyes, maybe Ramirez, Desmond and one or two others), but the rest are either on a severe downside of a past quality career (Jeter, Rollins, Fookie) or a solid 50+% are your typical glove first SSs (Andrus, Pennington, Sea Bass, Castro, Alcides Escobar, etc)
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
So the fact that more SS are hitting more 2B and HRs today than they were in the steroid era totally supports your argument that the age of the power-hitting SS is over, because now they aren’t all on PEDs.
Ok then.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Are they doing so in more at bats?
Obviously, the overall amount of at bats are similar, but if you double the number of players getting 400-500+ plate appearances, you’re going to get more raw 2Bs and HRs. Is the SLG up or down, not 2Bs, not HRs, the SLG which factors in plate appearances used to make those doubles. Just cause OPS is down, and 2Bs/HRs are up does not automatically mean SLG is up with OBP down. Raw numbers are different than rate stats.
You’ve still yet to add to the list of premier offensive SSs, or dispute that while elite offensive players at the position number a handful at most (5 or less), the number of glove with a weak stick accounts for 50+% of projected starting SSs. Defense is still first and foremost at the spot.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
And nice cherry picking of raw #s to support your bs stance...
games played and other factors get in the HR count and doubles count. So OPS is decreasing, hence SSs becoming less offensively dangerous. Cherry pick whatever you want, fact is, there are only two “premium” offensive players at the position, and a helluva lot more Omar Vizquels and Sea Basses.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Right. Cherry picked and games played. That’s it.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
Why do you use raw 2Bs and HRs, when OPS shows a decline...
oh, but slugging is up in spite of the one stat you cite which includes slugging is down? But hey, raw 2Bs and HRs among individuals are up, so you must be right.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
You're not wrong Walter, you're just an asshole.
Wait. You’re not an asshole. Or Walter.
Where am I?
Agreed
SS is a position slowly withering down. Hanley and Tulo are the rare exceptions, not the rule. League average SS is starting to look more like solid defense with tolerable offense (Something we have on the cheap, nonetheless)
I'd personally say that
SS isn’t “withering down” as much as it got a huge offensive bump when PEDs were their most prevalent and is now going back to how it was before then. SS, probably more than any other position, saw the largest difference in offensive production between PED and non-PED eras.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
2 SS come to mind that were linked to PEDs
Miguel Tejada and Alex Rodriguez (when he was a SS)
You won't always agree with me...Because sometimes you're wrong.
by JonnyBravesFan on Mar 8, 2011 8:13 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Pretty sure Nomar was as well
and I wouldn’t be surprised if multiple others used them in that time frame.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Yunel is going to hit again and I think Rameriz is going to hit for a tad bit more power. Other than that, I agree
Fair enough...
I don’t think Alexei Ramirez ever hits for enough power to be a “premium offensive” player imo. He may get to where he’s a pretty good bat, ala Omar Vizquel, but I don’t see many seasons, if any at all, where he has an ops over .850.
And I tend to lean towards Yunel never again producing as he did here. He’s never had 30 doubles, never 15 HR, and never an .850 ops. He may have 1 or 2 seasons topping those marks going forward, but I’m doubtful to be honest.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Thats actually some nice flexibility
Frank Wren can look for 3B and LF free agents next year because of Prado’s ability to play both positions. That definetly helps him out when he tries to find a replacement when Chipper leaves, having twice the amount of players to choose from.
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
very true
although, i think Prado deserves to be in the infield
and i think we might find more power in left
Perhaps Mather becomes our own Jason Werth?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 5:28 PM EST up reply actions
where is the
DECIDE to sign him or not after 2011
both based on his year
and based on the performance of our minor leaguers
there will be no discount for signing him early
If he's our weak link...
We could certainly be doing worse.
I’d be up for paying him a similar amount moving forward, provided he puts up decent numbers, i.e. his career totals. I don’t see our SS options being ready next season, so cue Stephen Drew for JJ talks here.
In the end, we got Carlos Lee and Aramis Ramirez’s production (yes, I’m serious…check out those dude’s 2010) for about 1/7 the price.
What I’m trying to say is that at least we realize our weak link is a weak link, and he’s getting paid a very modest amount for being so. We could be ball-and-chained by one of the aforementioned players, but we aren’t.
Sea Bass’s defense alone pays his salary, and he’s no Cesar Izturis. Jose Lopez barely put up a .600 OPS last season (granted, it was in Seattle’s voluminous ballpark) and got paid $3.6MM in the offseason. Doesn’t play nearly the defense that Sea Bass plays, and does it at a less demanding position.
Could be worse.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
And by decent...
I obviously mean decent for him, rather than your conventional decent.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
if he is the offensive weak link
he is what makes up for the defensive weak links in the infield
playing between Chipper and Uggla
and hopefully making up for both of their range shortages to some extent,
how good do we think he is at turning 2 on the catch? because it looks like uggla’s defensive weaknesses have been fielding in florida and throwing anywhere
Gonzalez's Defense
Wasn’t really as good as advertised after we got him. It’s not like he was bad, and it’s a smallish sample size, but he was not the almost no mistakes kind of guy that he has been before and that you would want for an all D no offense guy. I still expect him to be very good defensively this year, but I am also worried that his defense is declining enough at his age to make the “as long as his defense is great and he has a little pop he makes a nice fit at 2.5 mil” argument.
Defense was actually really solid...
Other than his first 11 games, in which he amassed 7 of his 8 errors (prior to the postseason). 1 error over the course of the next 60-some games is not too shabby.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
And you also have to assume there is some acclimation period
getting used to different pitchers, different infield, different infielders around you, different coaches/alignments/situational moves. I’d think his D is improved this year as he’s more familiar with the Braves and his teammates.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
IIRC
Gonzo led the team in several categories in August, including RBI’s when we were struggling with LOB’s. He’s not great, but not a bad guy to have around.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Leading the team in RBI should be expected from the 5 spot – it has little to do with his ability, but rather, who is hitting in front of him.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Are you serious?
FUGA hit 5th all year, how he do driving in runs? RBI has a little something to do with his ability, as he still has to put the bat on the ball to drive runs home.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Yes, I am dead serious. Most RBI leaders hit in RBI spots. FUGAs complete ineptitude has little to do with it.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Again...
just cause “RBI leaders hit in RBI spots” does not mean that people who hit in RBI spots are automatically RBI leaders.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I agree. When 3 of your top offensive weapons get hurt in a month, it makes it easier for the guy hitting 5th to lead the team in RBI though.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 6:47 PM EST up reply actions
UH, maybe but that's not what happened
Chipper got hurt in mid-August, but Prado, Infante, Heyward and McCann didn’t. Prado actually got hurt in mid to late Sept. Truth is, our starters were failing with RISP on a massive scale, with the exception of Gonzalez. Derrek Lee showed up the last day or two of the month and helped carry the team in Sept.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Prado was hurt at the beginning of August, and he didn’t play a game until the 17th of that month (and hits leadoff anyway, so he isn’t an RBI guy).
Infante was a super-sub, not an RBI guy.
Heyward put up a line of .299 .400 .536 .936 in the month of August, but like I said, if nobody is on in front of him, it’s kinda hard to get RBI. Compare that to Alex Gonzalez line of .264 .328 .453 .781. Don’t even pretend like Gonzalez was our most valuable hitter in August just because he had more RBI. He hit well – by his standards, but he was still barely league average.
And since you mentioned him, McCann put up a line of .300 .400 .550 .950 in the month of August.
RBI are almost exclusively about where you bat in the order. Gonzalez had Heyward and McCann getting on base each at a .400 clip. Of course he is going to get RBI – even with a .250 average for his career.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:03 PM EST up reply actions
Eh, what the hey
I say resign him for 2 years/ 5 mil if he’ll take it. Free agent and trade market for SS looks thin next year, and things could be much worse with Sea Bass. Out of all of our “depth” at SS in the minors, the only two guys with serious upside are probably going to have to change positions (Salcedo to 3B, Lipka to CF, I think?) 2 years of roughly average production on the cheap to fill a hole so we aren’t forced into a bad trade out of desperation with our young arms doesn’t sound bad to me.
The Poll
Right now something like only 38% think we shouldn’t resign him. What he did in his 72 games for us last year was awful, and he has been that bad for his career. Why does the majority of TC think we should resign him? Other factors like salary and alternatives matter of course, but there is no way I want Sea Bass back with the Braves next season (unless he posts an OBP at least as good as Frenchy’s. Yes, that’s how bad he is.)
I consider a .240/.291/.386 batting line awful. I’m not sure who would replace him but don’t act like it’s impossible to get a better ss than him
by granman29 on Mar 7, 2011 6:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I’ll replace him for less than league minimum salary. I will also hit .001 and commit frequent errors. I will inadvertenty draw several walks and be hit by pitches.
Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?
Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!
[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]
Morgan: Hey.
How on earth
Can find someone to replace a 35-year old shortstop with a career line of .258/.294/.402?! OMG
Yes, he’ll be 35 next season. Defense will be wearing down, his bat will be declining…he’s not going to be very good at all.
It’s not like there’s people like J.J. Hardy or Jerry Hairston out there who could do a better job…or, wait…
Personally, I’d rather see us use some of our ridiculously deep pitching talent and bring in a legit SS who will play there for the long-term: obviously, I have Stephen Drew in mind – but an Alexei Ramirez or someone of that nature – average OBP with decent ability at the plate and good ability in the field – (cough-Yunel-cough) would fit just fine.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:06 PM EST up reply actions
I’m in favor of that too, but it’s not like Alex Gonzalez is irreplaceable if we have to go to free agency. There are guys out who are at least as good as Alex Gonzalez and probably better, without us even attempting to make a deal.
Yeah – but I don’t want to go through what we went through for 1B at SS. Ya know?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:33 PM EST up reply actions
We really need to stop digging those holes for ourselves by trading away players who, while not superstars, more than held their own and ended up being better than the patchwork guys we tried to replace them with (I’m looking at you, Adam LaRoche…)
"Life is a lot like a baseball game- you want your team to win, you want it to be a thriller, you don't want it to be called short on account of nature, and you wouldn't mind if it went into extra innings." -Dante Shepherd, survivingtheworld.net
Have you looked at the free agent class of SSs next year?...
it;s not exactly an inspiring bunch. Maybe 3-5 players of Sea Bass’ ilk, but then there will also be potential openings in Boston, Minnesota, among other spots, so there will be competition for those few too. I think a trade is a best bet for bringing in a SS.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Wait.
Andres Thomas isn’t ready yet? He was moving through the farm fairly quickly in the late 80’s I thought.
"Son, why is my cocktail all over my penis?" -Skip Caray, trying to teach Chip how to drive a standard transmission
He was blocked
…by Rafael Ramirez. And Ken Oberkfell.
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
I don't want them to resign him.
I want them to find someone better. Maybe a guy who’s currently in another org’s farm system but is close to ready. Maybe a currently controlled MLB SS who can be obtained for some of the Bravos’ pitching surplus. Something. Gonzo’s on-base abilities are just the pits.
However, if Wren does look hard to find an alternative and no alternative emerges, of course you resign him. You’ve got to run someone out there, and Gonzo’s defense makes him above replacement level through 2013, probably.
I don't know...
Realistically, we can probably only expect a guy that will give us .245/.320/.400 along with something like 18-22 HR’s. Along with rapidly declining fielding.
If we can get him for cheap, I say why not keep him around for another year.
I mean, do I really believe in Brandon Hicks or Diory Hernandez?? NO
I mean, the guy who’ll be ready earliest would be Tyler Pastornicky, and even him starting in 2012 might be rushing it. I don’t want us to rush our guys just b/c we aren’t willing to pay for a servicable shortstop for one more year. We get our production from other positions anyway (C, 2B, LF, RF)
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
.320 OBP?
The last time Gonzalez posted a season OBP that high (or even above .300) was 2007.He’s slugging .400 for his career almost on the nose, but that doesn’t figure to continue, given his advancing age and anemic power numbers after moving to the spacious Ted. So yeah, even that shitty line you posted is likely beyond his reach. This is why a lot of people are strongly in favor of dumping him.
18-22 HR? He has hit 18 or more HR 3 times in his career. At 34 years old, I think it’s a safe bet to assume his best days are behind him.
He’s more of a lock for 12-15 HR.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Two of Gonzo’s last 3 seasons have been fairly good. SLG% over .447 in both.
He was awful for most of his career,and then something seemed to click from 2007 on, with a strange worst-of-his-career 2009.
But 2007 and most of 2010 showed what he can do. When he’s on, which recent stats show is as likely as him being off, he can be a .260/.315/.460 type of hitter.
Combine that with being a top 5 defensive shortstop and…why are we complaining? This team has a good chance to have 6 guys with an OPS over .800. AGon isn’t going to be holding anything back.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
In 2007, he had a career-best OBP of .325 (still below league average), didn’t play in 2008, had an OBP of .272 in 2009 and an OBP of .294 in 2010. I fail to see how he has “put it together” since 2007. It seems that 2007 was an aberration, not a change in performance.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:11 PM EST up reply actions
Should the Braves re-sign shortstop Alex Gonzalez for the 2012 season?
I’d really like to think they could do better than re-signing the hacker™.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
Last season there were 5 statistically better shortstops. You find one of them that is available and let Frank Wren know.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
If his stint in Toronto represents his true talent level...
Yeah, sure, he’s good, even above-average. Keep him on.
But I don’t think his first half does represent his true talent level. I think his career .248/.294/.402 line tells the story: the man can’t hit.
I think which Gonzalez appears in 2011 should obviously influence the decision to resign. A fluky hot start to 2010 should not.
3.4 WAR in 2010 might have been a bit fluky, but he has positive WAR in 10 of 12 seasons. He was #6 in MLB in UZR for what that POS stat is worth. 19 errors in 2010, 7 fielding and 19 throwing, but only 1 more the rest of the regular season after he got acclimated to the team. I don’t mind taking him back if he has a decent 2011. If he falls off a cliff, let him walk.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Saying a player has had "positive WAR in 10 of 12 seasons"
is kind of damning with faint praise, don’t you think?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Mar 7, 2011 9:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Also almost definitional when it comes to a major leaguer
Jeff Francoeuer aside, players who put up negative full-season WAR don’t get 12 chances. The fact that they’re in positive territory does not make them a good option as a starter on a contending team.
My point was, a positive WAR and a relatively cheap contract seem to equal out. As in, probably not a bad deal.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
The Braves will have money
And if they’re going to go cheap, why not just let Pastornicky play? I wouldn’t mind doing that if it meant we could get an above-average offensive and defensive center fielder.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
And how much of that positive WAR is due to his defense? I’d say about 4.4 of it.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
I would hope so. I consider SS to be a more important defensive player than offensive.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Yeah, but I was implying that his offensive WAR was negative – it was a cheap shot.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Last season was last season. 2012 is not last season. And Alex Gonzalez isn’t going to hit 23 homers again.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
Realistically though PWH...
unless we are making a trade, or Jose Reyes both signs here and gets back to good health and consistent play, we can only do better by trade, and Wren has seemed very reluctant to deal pitching. Personally, I see Jurrjens, Lowe or Beachy, among possible others, moving out for the needed SS this coming winter, but unless we make a trade, we aren’t going to get that through free agency.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
You don't think
J.J. Hardy is a better player than Alex Gonzalez? Between him, Marco Scutaro, Jimmy Rollins, and Rafael Furcal there will be a better SS not named Reyes available on the FA market next year.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
Hardy can be...
but he’s dropped off of late, so I’m not sure he WILL be. Are we getting the Hardy from 07/08, cause that’s a definite upgrade. Hardy the last two seasons though, not so much. Rollins has hovered around a .300 obp himself the last couple seasons, and I think he’s on his way to hanging on only due to past success. Furcal I omit because of the dealings with him last time he was a fa and I don’t think Wren has gotten over that. Scutaro turns 36 in October, and I’m not sure how much he’d have left in the tank, especially after a career that has been journeyman caliber.
All I’m thinking is that if we want a definite and substantial upgrade from Gonzalez, it’s coming through a trade (i’ve championed the JJ for Drew idea). I’m just not fond of any of the FA SSs next winter, and think if one of them has a season that would make me want them, it’ll a) make them much more conducive to being resigned by their current club or b) prohibitively expensive to the point where the years and dollars wouldn’t be worth a likely decline in their 30s. The question marks on those guys make me think I’ll take another year of Sea Bass at $2.5 and let him compete with a minimum salary Pastornicky. Hope their gloves do the work, and focus on spending money in for a big time bat in the OF (either LF or CF if Schafer can’t rebound).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I just feel sorry for the guy. Lookit him, all tangled up in that jump rope.
LIVE EST
Tape-delayed for the West Coast
While there are worse options out there at SS,
and I’m not too upset with Sea Bass being our SS for this year, we really ought to be able to find someone better by next season. We don’t have to set our sights too high.
I hear that Omar Infante guy will be a free agent after the season. Not that he’d be a particularly good regular SS, but it would be pretty hilarious if we got him back and started him alongside Uggla.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
Its too bad that Fredi and Hanley kind of hate each other.
I would trade half of our minor leagues for H-Ram
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Ummm hello
why trade for Hanley when Yuniesky Betancourt is likely to be a free agent this off season?
Seriously
Looks like somone got moded!
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Teheran, Delgado, Kimbrel, and Schafer for Hanley. Do you do it?
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 9:41 PM EST up reply actions
Jurrjens, Vizcaino, Schafer, and Lipka
I’d do that.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Well sure you would…I’m kind of thinking the Marlins wouldn’t, though.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
by Scott Coleman on Mar 7, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions
So, one of our future aces and our future CF for a SS…not to mention a proven above-average MLB starting pitcher and a future 3B…Nah, I wouldn’t do it.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
I thought we said 3B earlier today – that may have been Salcedo…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions
that's Salcedo...
Lipka is 2B or CF if not SS (which I think he can stick at).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Lipka probably profiles as a future CF
But it’s too early for us to consider moving any of our top 4 SS prospects away from the position permanently. For example, FW said this offseason that 2-3 years from now, the man he expects to see at shortstop is Salcedo, a guy that many people think might end up shuffled off to third base.
Lipka’s definitely got the pure speed to be able to cover CF, but we’re not going to look at trying him there until we’re certain he can’t handle short. Our bigger, more immediate need is going to be for someone to become a big time shortstop. For all we know, that guy could turn out to be Pastornicky, but right now, any of our top 4 guys could be pegged as our future starting SS if they make the right kind of strides this season.
Also, Schafer looks to be manning CF for us long term – he’s only 24 years old.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
Concerns about his makeup have not been dispelled.
Nor has he had any record of sustained success at the MLB level. I know that’s because of his broken wrist, but the fact that there’s an excuse provides no evidence that he’s actually capable of contributing adequately.
While that’s true, the wrist is more than an excuse – it’s a reality.
Schafer is a true 5-tool player. Those kinds of guys don’t typically fizzle out. At least a couple of those 5 tools will factor in at the MLB level.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t even know what the 5 tools are. I assume Speed, Arm, Hit for Average, Hit for Power, and either Defense or Range. Am I close? I’d say he has 3 of 5 right now at MLB level if those are the 5 tools.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
I don't mean "excuse" pejoratively
I mean it as—it explains his poor showing. But again, the fact that we have a ready explanation just means we should be cautious before assuming his awful 2009 represents his true talent level. There’s still a long way between “not as bad as that, surely” and “capable of contributing as a starting CF.”
As to whether 5-tool guys “typically” fizzle out, I don’t know. They do sometimes, certainly. No prospect maven seems to think Schafer is a can’t-miss guy the way Heyward or Freeman are. So I’m not so sanguine about our future CF situation. If Schafer works out, great. But we should already have contingency plans in the works.
fair enough.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 11:17 PM EST up reply actions
JJ
already out of the Marlins payscale
by UltimaParadox on Mar 7, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
No...
don’t want his attitude or D on this team. I’d prefer making a move for Andrus, Ramirez, Drew, among others, who would all be less costly than Hanley.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I’d like for us to take the wait and see approach on re-signing him in the offseason. If he doesn’t regress then sign him for another year at about $2MM
2010 projection: .250 BA .230 OBP .390 SLG 14 HR
(that’s right)
Those nega-walks have always been an issue with him.
On the other hand, they are working out great for the Alex Gonzalez inhabiting Earth Prime.
hahahahahaha. Nice.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions
HATERS GONNA HATE.
I’m looking at you GoBravesNY.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Pretty Sure
We can find some slick fielding SS with no offensive value and pay the minimum
Then resign a declining SS with no offensive value.. at 2.5MM. Even then I bet he wants to turn that “20 HR” season into a 4-5mil a year deal
It's a lot harder to find players capable of playing SS than we make it out to be
Though I would not at all be upset if they were able to locate a young, offensive zero, plus-to-plus-plus defensive SS for the league minimum. The offense is simply good enough to carry the team with a hole in the line-up, and the defense could certainly stand to be improved.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
The question becomes
how much “offensive zero” can we really take on? We could bring up Andrelton Simmons next year and likely have a plus-plus defensive guy, but if he hits like a pitcher, he’ll probably end up being below replacement level regardless.
The ~1 WAR all-defense short stops like Jack Wilson and Brendan Ryan can hit and field just well enough to be average or slightly below average overall players, but they usually have enough value to their clubs when making league minimum that they aren’t traded away.
I’m just not sure how many 1~2 WAR plus-plus defense no offense short stops are out there. They have to hit enough to not be complete black holes, at least.
I really wants someone other than Alex Gonzales at the position next year, too.
Agree on the offensive zero part...
Brandon Hicks right now could be that plus defender with zero offense, but he’d truly be zero offense, as likely would be Simmons. If either of them can even get up to a .650 ops caliber bat (I’m thinking Simmons, as Hicks’ production in AA and AAA make me think he’ll never be worth a spot), then it’d be fantastic. But I don’t think either of them can, and while Pastornicky could, I’m not sure he’d fit the plus/plus plus defensive requirement.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
There's just nothing else "available" is the problem
Next year’s free agent class blows, and it doesn’t look like any of the names worth trading for could be had. So its either keep Gonzo and know what we’re getting or sign another crappy stopgap while we wait for Lipa/Pastornicky/Salcedo to become MLB worthy.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
another young crappy player
At the league minimum is better IMO
by UltimaParadox on Mar 7, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
No way you find a league minimum playing better defense. Since defense is the premium at SS, why not sack up the 2-4 mil to keep Gonzo and worry about adding offense elsewhere?
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
I've heard it said
That there’s much more freely available major-league quality defense than there is major-league quality offense. Don’t know if that’s true or not, but it makes intuitive sense. I would think that adjusting to major league pitching, being able to hit a small ball coming by you at 90+ MPH, would be far more difficult for most people than learning to be a slick fielder.
You could find any number of great defensive SS for the league minimum who can’t hit for crap.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 7, 2011 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
He can hit fine, he just can’t take a walk.
For someone hitting 7th, I’d rather have the SS who hacks away and can slug in the mid .400s over the SS who has a .350 OBP but can’t slug his way out of a paper bag.
I might be alone in thinking that, though. AGon probably wouldn’t fit in anywhere as well as he does here. He’s not here to walk, he’s here to hack in the boatload of OBP guys in front of him. If he gets 60-80 RBI, I don’t really care what his OBP is from the 7 hole. The Braves have the offense to hide his OBP.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
he can’t hit fine. He has a career average of .248 – that’s pretty much terrible when coupled with the fact that he doesn’t walk.
He hits an occasional XBH – and that is the extent of his offensive value.
OBP is more than taking a walk – it’s not making outs. That cannot be overrated.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
Since 2007, Alex Gonzalez has a higher WAR than all these players. Important note, he did it in less games than all of them.
Asdrubal Cabrera
Brendan Ryan
Nick Punto
Christian Guzman
Jeff Keppinger
David Eckstein
Jack Wilson
Clint Barmes
Omar Vizquel
Brandan Harris
Cezar Izturis
Just sayin.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
His WAR is heavily based on his defense. It has nothing to do with his offensive abilities – which are severely lacking.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
But WAR, as fictitious as it may be, measures a players overall worth.
Baseball is not one-sided. He excels on defense. That adds to his overall value as a player. That adds to the argument of whether or not to keep him.
Its not all about his bat or lack thereof. I’d rather have a poor hitting shortstop with great defense over a mediocre hitting shortstop with mediocre offense (which appears is the best case scenario when signing someone else). Defense at shortstop is as important as anything.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Nobody is disputing his defense – even as a 34 year old.
The issue has never been his D. It’s been his Offense.
By the way, the list of guys that you posted is not exactly a Who’s Who of shortstops.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:42 AM EST up reply actions
Just pointing out that there are guys who get even more playing time than him who contribute even less. AKA it could be worse.
If we were a weak offensive team, I would say hell no to resigning him.
But on a young, powerful, OBP heavy team – having a stable veteran playing A+ defense at the most crucial defensive position sounds pretty good to me.
Replacing Chipper’s bat should be way higher on the importance scale.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
While we could have a worse SS – how many of those guys are making $2.5M or more?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 12:55 AM EST up reply actions
The same factors in his WAR are in their WAR
defense, especially at SS, is as important as offense imo.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Nut not when we are having a discussion about a player’s offense
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
*but
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 8:39 AM EST up reply actions
You're focused on his offense because that's what behooves your position...
the rest of us are trying to look at the whole picture as to whether or not he’d be good to have around beyond this year, not just half of it.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
That's a real rogue's gallery...
of mediocre players.
Ok, I’ll go ahead and say it. I don’t want any of those losers on the Braves either.
That;'s the problem though...
Hicks would be as good, if not better than Sea Bass defensively. But you’d be hoping for at best a .150/.250 ba/obp, and probably closer to .100/.200. We’ve got pitchers who’d be more productive at the plate. Andrelton Simmons can be as good if not better than Sea Bass defensively, but again you’d be starting at a .150/.250 offensive line if you’re lucky. Maybe one of those two, or Pastornicky can make a move this year and prove to be a suitable replacement for Gonzalez next year. But it’s doubtful at best, and we probably need to consider trades this winter to fill the spot.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Reyes and Hardy are both potential upgrades at SS who are FA.
We’ve also got enough minor league pitching that a trade is always an option.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Hardy is an upgrade? Really? Second time I’ve heard his name in this thread.
Hardy is signed for $5.5 million and over the past 2 seasons as amassed a .684 OPS.
Come on, people. Get your numbers checked here.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Okay
Better career hitter? Hardy.
Better defender? Hardy.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
If the Braves wanna pay an extra 3 mil per year for a guy with a lower OPS, they can go right ahead.
I would advise against it though.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Considering that Hardy has the higher OPS of the two …
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Hardy had a lower OPS in 2010, 2009, and 2007.
Not so much….
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Nice cherry picking.
Yeah, Hardy is just better over his career. And the last 3 years. And had a higher WOBA in ’09, and was only slightly lower last season.
And he’s still younger, and a better defender (aka the main point of value that Sea Bass provides).
But yeah, if you frame things just right, you can create the illusion that Unicorns are real.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Haha, picking the 3 most recent seasons in which they both played is “cherry picking”. Alrighty then, champ.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
Or you could just compare Hardy’s combined averages over his last 3 seasons to Gonzalez’s. But that would show that Hardy is better offensively. And still a better defender. And younger.
And, Reyes is still a substantial upgrade over Gonzalez. As is Furcal, for that matter, if his option doesn’t vest/isn’t picked up.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
All 3 could be significantly more expensive though...
and for a team with needs in the OF, and elsewhere, will we have the money to spend for a Reyes, or even a Fookie or Hardy? And what are the chances they aren’t all 3 on a downward decline making them a waste of money as well?
Personally, a trade is the primary option in my mind for addressing SS and upgrading the position.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Also, as long as we're only looking at Season Vs Season
Hardy has produced a better WAR than Unicorn in every season that they’ve both played, other than last year (though he was still pretty close), and ’06 (when Hardy played in 32 games, of course his .8 WAR in those 32 games is still more than half what Gonzalez did in over 100 that year).
In fact, Hardy has a higher WAR for his career than Gonzalez, in spite of playing half as many seasons.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Seriously though...
if we end up at Hardy for $5m, I’ll be very disappointed. He COULD be better, but the chances that he is better are pretty slim considering his accumulating injuries and decreased production at the plate.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
If we get Hardy @ $5mil/year
Especially if it’s for 2-3 years, I’d be ecstatic. That would be a bargain. Like I said below, AG is not going to take less money than he is making this year. He is currently being paid like a backup SS, not a starter. He will be looking for starter $ next year.
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
You're assuming too much
Namely, that AG is going to sign for 1 year and $1.75 million. He signed his last contract to be a backup (IIRC – correct me if you know better). He’s a “starter” now. Why would he take less money?
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
J.J. Hardy career: .263/.323/.423, 95 OPS+, 29 years old in 2012
Alex Gonzalez career: .248/.294/.402 81 OPS+, 34 years old in 2012
If you think Alex Gonzalez is a better player in terms of true talent level than J.J. Hardy you’re severely misguided.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
But over the last two years....
your not looking at near that large of a difference, and it can be argued that Gonzalez has been holding steady to his career line, while Hardy has fallen way off his.
I think JJ Hardy is the better, more talented player, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be more productive in 2012, or worth what we’d have to pay to bring him in. Combine the last two seasons, Gonzalez has 4 WAR (0.6 and 3.4), Hardy 3.8 (1.4 and 2.4). Personally, I think we can do better than both IF Wren is willing to deal some arms to get it.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Jason Heyward is on Matthew Berry's "Hate List" for 2011
Hmm…I guess he hasn’t seen Jason’s stat line if you exclude the month of June when he had a busted wrist. I know I sure wouldn’t want .293/.411/.538 with 20+ HRs, 80+ RBI, 75+ R, 10+ SB on my fantasy team.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Understandable
I think Berry’s wrong, but people often fuck up their fantasy teams trying to go with the trendy pick instead of a reliable guy. Heyward hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy for a full pro season. Again, I think Berry’s wrong in this case, but the concern isn’t unjustified.
"The WAR folks like yunel apparently. i know this, bobby cox hated going to war with this guy." - Jon Heyman
Beyond the Box Score / Capitol Avenue Club / shwitter: @CapitolAvenue
No reason not to wait, he’s getting older, and we have no idea if Chipper is going to retire or not after the season at this point, or if Lowe’s contract will be movable after the season. We also need to see how CK and JV handle the back of the bullpen duties and how our SS prospects are developing.
We could probably make a serious run at Jose Reyes next off season if things shake out right for us. If they don’t, we can always offer Unicorn a deal then.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Braves can’t afford Reyes if he can’t stay on the field. We don’t need another Mike Hampton situation. And Reyes is a Met. I don’t want lifelong a Phillie or Met on our team.
Kinda hard to be a life-long team member when you join another team…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 8, 2011 5:42 AM EST up reply actions
You know what I meant
The guy came up in the Mets organization and has only played for them. He’s a lifelong Met until further notice. If anyone wants to throw their Braves loyalty aside to sign an injury prone Met for big money and then get Mike Hampton’d then go ahead and convince FW, but I think he’s smarter than that and is looking more at the big picture.
He’ll still get a big contract in the 5-6 year range and may not even play 3 combined seasons at the injury rate he’s currently on. Even if he plays 150 games this year I don’t want him. We have solid prospects in our system and at least one them could pan out to be just what we need. I’d rather have our homegrown talent than sign a player I’ve never liked from the Mets. But that’s just me being a loyal Braves fan confident in our organization.
But that’s just me beinga loyal Braves fan confident in our organizationpassive-aggressive.
FTFY
Don't kiss an ass if it's in the process of shitting on you.
"…aren’t worthy enough to hold his (Pujols) ass cheeks apart while Playboy models wipe him with thousand dollar bills after he craps out the cure to whatever previously-incurable disease." by royhobbs 1/7/09
Nonfixed
It’s not being passive-aggressive. I hate the Mets and want nothing to do with their players. Especially one that’s injury prone whose biggest asset is speed. Once his speed declines to to about average he’s lost most of his value. I think our options in the minors are better than getting in a bidding war, then signing Reyes to a huge contract half of which he may or may not play. Call it what you want; I don’t like Reyes because he plays for our 2nd biggest division rival and would rather we cultivate our own home-grown talent than waste money on him.
i agree about not signing reyes. we should use the money to address our OF needs. and A GON is decent enough until our prospects are ready
by suicide bunting is a sin on Mar 8, 2011 9:08 AM EST reply actions
Prospects?
Let’s look at our prospect situation at SS
Lipka-It’s doubted he can handle SS longeterm, most likely going to end up at CF. He’s the most likely to stay, but it’s still not a great chance.
Salcedo-Very big for the position, and his defense has yet to settle down in the states (SSS, I know.)
Pastornicky-More likely to end up over at 2B, but he’s not really the kind of prospect we should look at to solve a need long term. Some suggest he will likely be a UI, with an outside chance of starting. His best positon is 2B at any rate.
Simmons-ML ready defense, no bat to speak of, as of yet. He’s got a lot of polishing to do. Plus, he possesses a cannon that hurls projectiles at 98 MPH, so he may end up as a pitcher if he doesn’t develop as a hitter.
In short, we have a lot of prospects that are likely going to have position changes. No one wants that to happen, but scouting reports from BA and BP seem to suggest it’s likely. FA market next year is crap, so I say we start looking at the trade market (Reyes is inconsistent and injury prone, and likely expensive. Hardy, wouldn’t be the worst, but I wouldn’t consider him a fix.) Stephen Drew, anyone? If not, I’d be fine signing Sea Bass for 2 years to stall for another year in the draft or mabye better trade oppurtunities down the road.

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