Fan Projections For Atlanta Braves Outfielders

…and I’ll say it again: I don’t think the projections for the infielders were that conservative. I think they were reasonably homeristic (I mean, for crying out loud, Gonzo was projected to have an OBP over .310). I think the OF projections are pretty much in line with the infield projections: not wildly homeristic, but a little optimistic.

For the OF, I think the HR projections are probably too high for Heyward and Prado. The rest of the numbers for Heyward and Prado don’t seem too bad. As you note, Prado’s OBP is a bit high, but that is about it. I see the rate stats for Heyward as reasonable; he is very young and improvement is more likely than regression.

I don’t think that the whole hitting sixth thing should factor into Heyward’s projections: like protection, I think it is a bit of a myth, and Heyward will hit like Heyward. At least I hope he doesn’t try to be overagressive just because of batting order position. Also, just because Heyward starts the season batting sixth, it doesn’t mean that he’ll end the season batting sixth. I assume he’ll hit third when Chipper has a day off. And who knows what will happen to the lineup. Remember, Heyward started last season hitting sixth, too.

Finally, as for McLouth. The rate stats look a bit optimistic, but I think he can reach the HR mark.

While the home runs for Heyward (projected by Gondee) through the fans input, may be a bit high, I am comforted by the fact that JayHey doesn’t set out to hit them. If he ends up with a combined total of 60-65 (home runs and doubles), I think that we should measure his offensive production a success.

17 HRs seems almost nuts to me, but I like the optimism. If he hits .265, based on history and standard deviation, Braves fans should be happy. If he somehow hits .275 or higher, fans should be ecstatic.

Those Heyward numbers seem pretty reasonable to me. If he hadn’t been hurt, he might well have surpassed those last year.

The Prado numbers look right on.

I’m not as optimistic as many about McLouth, but he was very unlucky last year. Even a modest rebound could put him within striking distance of the fan’s projection.

It will be nice finally having an effective offense in the outfield after so many years of crap.

Interesting that “Pitsburgh Nate” has a career BA .032 higher than “Atlanta Nate”, yet his career OBP is only.009 higher. While I don’t have exact numbers, he was walking about once every 10 PA with the Pirates in 08 and 09. He has walked approx once every 8.5 PA with the Braves. So, if he can maintain the better eye and find his batting form again, .346 OBP may be within reach. He is the biggest question mark left right now, as Chipper appears to be healthy.

I think the Prado and Heyward projections are pretty much on target. Heyward had an OBP of .393 last year and that included the sore thumb. He hit well in the 6th spot at the beginning of the season. While I don’t know how much protection matters, he will have more protection with Gonzalez and Freeman hitting behind him, than he had last year. I also can see him batting 4th or 5th when McCann has a day off, depending on whether a lefty or a righty is pitching. That would be something, if both he and Chipper are around .400 OBP and Uggla is batting behind them. I can also see him hitting 3rd when Chipper has a day off.

Sid Glaus…nice to see you keeping current.
Just got my tix for the opener hear in DC…sitting in the front row of the section over the Braves bullpen. I’ll be sure to post some.