The Atlanta Braves Could Win The NL East In 2011
by Scott Coleman on Mar 21, 2011 8:00 AM EDT
Email
Print
Turn on ESPN or MLB Network. If they're talking about the National League, they're talking about the Phillies. You'd almost swear they have the division won before playing a single game. They have a pitching staff that will go down as the greatest in history, and an offense that still scores at will. They'll win 100 games by mid-September and coast to the Fall Classic without ever breaking a sweat. Philadelphia will become the kings of baseball, and their onslaught of the other 15 National League teams will begin on March 31st.
It's almost like we shouldn't even play the season.
Though despite receiving minimal attention this Spring, the Braves could have something really special coming together. There are nine innings in a baseball game, and these are nine innings worth of reasons the National League East crown could come back to Atlanta in 2011.
1st Inning - Bobby is gone, but Fredi is the right man for the job.
It's never easy to replace a legend, but Fredi Gonzalez has already shown why he was the consensus pick to replace Bobby Cox. The transition between managers has gone without a hitch, and he's already received the full vote of confidence from his players. The Braves organization is among the best in baseball and there's no need to reinvent the wheel. Fredi will continue to do things the "Braves Way", and future looks bright with Gonzalez at the helm.
2nd Inning - After three long years, we finally have an offense.
Jason Heyward, Brian McCann, Martin Prado, and Dan Uggla are four All-Star-level hitters. Each player should have an OPS well above .800, and 100 combined home runs isn't out of the question at all. Seriously, it's tough to find a better core of young hitters in baseball. They'll mash all year long.
Chipper Jones, even if he needs some time off, still controls the strike zone better than just about anyone in baseball and is having a phenomenal Spring Training. Freddie Freeman had an OPS just shy of .900 as a 20-year old in Triple-A last year, and all signs point to a big year at the plate in 2011. If these two guys can handle the grind of a long season, we'll really be looking good.
Towards the lower-half of the lineup, Nate McLouth has hit like "Pittsburgh Nate" this Spring, and everyone who's seen him this Spring has been impressed. And if Alex Gonzalez can at least be decent at the plate as our 8th hitter, we're looking at a pretty damn solid bunch of hitters.
3rd Inning - Some serious starting pitching.
Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Derek Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, and Mike Minor. You don't find many rotations better than that. With a nice mix of experience veterans and up-and-coming kids, the Braves should get a solid performance out of their starting pitcher every night of the week. Each is capable of shutting down an offense on any given night, and with the improved offense, they should be able to pitch without feeling the need to be perfect.
If the season started tomorrow, Brandon Beachy, Kenshin Kawakami, and Rodrigo Lopez would all start the season in the Minor Leagues. They're the 4th or 5th starter for just about any other team in baseball, and they're the Braves' 6th, 7th, and 8th best options. That's some serious depth for you.
And then there's always the Brandon Beachy or Jonny Venters-type pitcher the Braves seem to find every season. You won't know who it is at the beginning of the year, but that player will emerge. Just ask Beachy, Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty, or even a guy like Buddy Carlyle or Jorge Sosa. They may not stick around for a long time, but you can rest assured that they'll find a way to have an impact on the team.
4th Inning - Jason Heyward.
His wrist and thumb are finally healthy. Want to know his stat line from 2010 if you exclude when he played through injury? .296/.410/.527. Combine this with gold glove-level defense and the potential for 30 home runs and 100 RBI (which you know the voters drool over), and we're looking at a possible MVP candidate. Jason Heyward is a special baseball player, and he could become a superstar in 2011. Let's just not bat him 6th.
5th Inning - It won't always be pretty, but the defense will be improved.
The Braves won't be great, but they'll be vastly improved in the field this year. Troy Glaus and his gimpy knees will be replaced by Freddie Freeman. Melky Cabrera and his center field-throwing arm will be replaced by Martin Prado, who's had his transition to left field be described as "a duck to water". Chipper Jones is healthy, and he's looked solid at the hot corner throughout Spring Training. And while Dan Uggla wasn't much of a defender in Florida, his defense should improve with a better playing surface at Turner Field.
6th Inning - The bench is back in town.
David Ross is the best backup catcher in baseball, and we can only hope he'll be in the lineup a little more often to give Brian McCann a rest. Eric Hinske is one of the best in the league as far as bench players go, and he'll be back for more in 2011. All-Star Omar Infante will be missed, guys like Ed Lucas or Matt Young are showing that they could be the second coming of our talented utility man.
The Braves could also benefit greatly if former top-prospects Wilkin Ramirez and Jordan Schafer finally figure it out. They'd be a welcome addition to the club as a 4th outfielder. And while his defense is awful, Brooks Conrad earned the nickname "Clutch Conrad" for a reason last season. The guy knows how to hit when the game is on the line, and his late-game heroics could be big once again for Atlanta.
7th Inning - Good luck after the 7th inning.
With Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters forming a nasty combination for the 8th and 9th innings, it's tough to imagine teams doing much damage once these two kids make the trot in from the bullpen. Fredi Gonzalez will be able to play the match-ups in just about every game, and with so many talented hitters occupying the NL East, it'll be a huge advantage for the Braves.
Peter Moylan, Eric O'Flaherty, Scott Linebrink, and left-handed specialist George Sherrill will round out a 'pen that's just as good as anyone's. And with younger guys like Stephen Marek, Cristhian Martinez, Cory Gearrin, and Juan Abreu eagerly waiting for their call-up to Atlanta, there's plenty of insurance waiting around in Gwinnett should the Braves need it.
8th Inning - Flexibility at the trade deadline.
Plain and simple, the Braves have the prospects to get just about any deal done. Money is always a concern with Liberty Media at the helm, but we do have the pieces to put together a big trade if deemed necessary. Frank Wren's track record with mid-season transactions isn't great, but the man is still among the best in the business. If we have a glaring hole on our roster, we'll be able to fill it.
9th Inning - This team doesn't have a weakness.
We can pitch, we can hit, and we can field. We have an excellent mix of veterans and kids on the roster, and we have a phenomenal new manager in Fredi Gonzalez to get the team through the grind of 162 games. Sure, there are a few questions surrounding the team, but every team in baseball has them. Will Chipper stay healthy? Will Nate McLouth be able to rebound? How will rookies like Freeman, Minor, and Kimbrel perform? They're all legit concerns.
At the end of the day, though, this is a really good team with a ton of talent. We'll give the heavily favored Phillies a hell of a run this year, and if a few things roll our way, the Atlanta Braves could be National League East champions in 2011.
70 comments
|
5 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
You nailed it!
With all the talk about the Phillies starters, I think our starting 5 match up pretty well. Maybe Holliday is the best starter in the NL, but Huddy matches up pretty well. We have the edge in 2-5, plus the depth in Beachy/Minor, Lopez and KK (if he is still around) Our bullpen is much better. Our IF and OF are that perfect belnd of youth and experience. We have a balanced lineup 1-8. We may not have any 40 HR guys, but we have 2 30+ candidates in Uggla and Heyaward and all the rest are capable of 20+. We don’t rely heavily on 1 or 2 guys to perform. A healthy Chipper is worth way more than just his numbers. And a healthy “Pittsburgh Nate” in the 2 hole, would be just great. He can move runners (Prado) over, he has good speed to help stay out of the double-play and set the table for Chipper, B-Mac and Uggla. Heyward bats 6th. I would like to see Freeman bat 7th and Gonzalez bat 8th to give Freeman some protection. But if you really just have to go lefty, righty, lefty, well so be it.
Hinske & Ross, are probably 2 of the best bench palyers in the game. we were smart to keep both of them. Ross can fill in for McCann and let B-Mac and Chipper split DH time in interleague games.
4th OF is up for grabs, but I truly believe that a good 3 months in AAA and Shafer will be ready if needed. He’s got to play every day.
The Phillies are getting older and it shows already. They ust don’t have the depth to cover all their injuries and potential injuries. Even if they are 100% healthy, we stack up well with their starting pitching. We have the better pen, a more balanced 1-8, a better bench and if needed, lots of quality players just 45 minutes away in Gwinnett.
Don’t be surprised if it’s the Braves winning 98-100 games this year and the Phillies limping into the playofs or just missing them, this year.
The edge in 2-5?
So your position is that we should expect a better performance out of Tommy Hanson than Cliff Lee, better performance out of Jair Jurrjens than Cole Hamels, better performance out of Derek Lowe than Roy Oswalt?
Sorry, no. The Phillies have the clear edge in starting rotation. Conceivably the tide could shift next year, if two of the Trinity turn into quality starting pitchers in a big hurry. For 2011, though, the Phillies’ rotation is the best.
They have the edge but
I think it is a lot closer than you believe.
It's down to health, age,
and a bunch of other things that are difficult to measure with statistics. If this were a video game, the Phillies rotation would destroy ours, because they’d be in perfect health at the top of their game all year. Since it’s not, though, we can really only wait and see.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
I said they match up pretty well.
I believe that Lowe can match up well with Lee’s performance, eating innings and getting wins. I think Hanson matches up well with Hamels and JJ can be better than Oswalt. Blanton is a very good # 5 and the edge may go to the Phillies there. Then let’s not forget we will have either Beachy or Minor ready at AAA, along with Lopez and, at least for now, KK, in the event of an injury or 2. So, we do match up pretty well for our 18 games against the Phils. As for the other 144, I think we got it over anyone else, except maybe the Giants.
I think we can match up pretty well for those games. There are a lot of ifs/cans/buts/etc. that might factor in to those specific comparisons you made (what if JJ’s velocity never recovers? What if he gets hit with nagging injuries again like last year? What if Lowe isn’t able to maintain this form he found last September? etc., etc.).
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
And all that to say
I totally agree, the other 144 games (or 138, if you want to go ahead and discount the Giants) we win just about any pitching matchup. I don’t think we need to pay too much attention to our head-to-head matchups with the Phillies until it comes postseason time.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Oh goodness no
I wouldn’t expect him to. I think he’s got a chance at keeping that form, though – whatever adjustments he made to his delivery that made him more effective may carry on. But I don’t think he’ll have an 0.91 ERA (or whatever it was he had for the month of September) or anything.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Opportunity
Great Post. Though I do give some credit to Olney and Crasnick, as they both have given Braves props and acknowledged they can be a threat to the Phillies this season.
Coming out of Spring Training healthy, the Braves have a huge opportunity to create some space on the Phillies early. The Phillies have a good spring record, but I wouldn’t call it a successful spring with injuries to Utley and Brown. If the Braves can pop out of the gate fast and furious with a couple of 17/18 win months, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them with a decent lead by the end of May. All of us here know the Braves will be legit contenders for the East this year and the Phillies will be heavily reliant on solid starts that do not rely on their bullpen.
It is this kind of fabulous analysis that makes me come back for more. Excellent work, sir.
Carrying on Bobby's Legacy!
by FrediGonzalez on Mar 21, 2011 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
We win those nine innings!
I really like the creativity of the layout for this post. You scored five runs of success.
I’m especially excited to see the 2nd inning come to light. This is going to be a fun team to watch.
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
You scored five runs of success.
Unless Hanson is pitching this metaphorical game, in which case you inexplicably only scored 2.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
In this mythical challenge, we of TC are all pitching.
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
by bwellnjonesco on Mar 21, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking the other day...
The Braves could have ALL eight regulars hit 15 home runs if everything goes well. Eight players with 15 homers or more, has that ever been done? Where’s Elias when you need them.
How do I feel? Like f**king success - Jordan Schafer
We had the midget mafia over at second base: Me, Uggla and Conrad - Matt Young
I’d take the under for Chipper, Gonzalez, Freeman, McLouth, and Prado. This is still not a slugging team top to bottom, but Uggla’s presence should help a lot.
Prado, Freeman, and Chipper are good bets to hit at least 15. Mclouth is definitely capable of hitting 15 and 15 may be a reach for Gonzo.
Freeman is certainly going to peak higher than 15, probably higher than 20. But this is his rookie season, and despite Heyward’s brilliant 2010, most rookies do go through some struggles. I think it’s possible that Freeman will hit more than 15, but I also think it’s somewhat less likely than not.
I take the under on Chipper because of my expectations about his limited playing time. If he gets 500+ PA, I think he will probably get his 15 HR.
hmmm....
I’d be skeptical; Chipper’s injury prone-ness, Freeman’s inexperience, and Sea Bass’ inconsistancy all would make me not take a bet in favor of eight guys smacking 15 each. I WOULD, however, take one that says our starting eight will average at least 18 each, with Uggla’s 30 and Heyward and B-Mac’s combined 50 or so balancing out the lighter sluggers. This is definately going to be the most pop we’ve had in the lineup since 2006 or even 2005 when Andruw hit over 50 by himself.
by crimsonqueen9 on Mar 21, 2011 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think Freeman is the likely problem.
Rookies do tend to struggle, but usually it is more with contact than power—-the stuff they see at the major league level is vastly superior to what they have seen before (hence the contact problems) but mistakes are still thrown and are still hittable. As for Chipper, you nailed it, it comes down to how many games he plays. With Gonzalez, it is possible but not likely.
Kudos
To you mvhs, an with a surgically-repaired wrist too. Reading this write-up has given me that warm fuzzy feeling regarding this team and I can’t wait for the season to start. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again- I’m not worried about the Phils rotation. Halladay is sick no doubt, but Lee is 32+ with a bad back, Oswalt will come back down to earth now that his Philly Pink Cloud is dissapating, and Hamels is over-rated. Once JJ gets his velocity where he wants it this rotation will be deadly as well
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Mar 21, 2011 9:27 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
So you’re saying there’s a chance……….
Coming soon: winningugly visits Atlanta, takes dump in royhobbs’ Braves hat.
What was all that one in a million talk?
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Mar 21, 2011 4:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking about your 9th inning post just last night
"Baseball is like church. Many attend; few understand." - Leo Durocher
Did I miss one of these before?
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
by bwellnjonesco on Mar 21, 2011 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
Great post.
A lot of people think the Phillies have already won the division, and are a lock for the WS, but the Braves are a serious threat. I think we can win for all the reasons mentioned above. Should be a great baseball season
I’m going to work on staying a little more positive this year. It’s a long, long season.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Twitter: @ScottColeman55
by Scott Coleman on Mar 21, 2011 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Good post, hope the wrist is doing ok
Whether we take down the Phillies this year or not, the Braves are set up for a prolonged run of winning baseball. Taking the Phillies down this year would be some pretty sweet icing on the cake though. I think we can do it.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Regarding the "Just don't bat Heyward Sixth" line.
This is the lineup conundrum: where to put him.
LEFTIES: Nate, McCann, Heyward, Freeman
RIGHTIES: Prado, Uggla, SeaBass
EITHER: Chipper
Whoever hits sixth is the guy that gets pitched around… it’s pretty much the first such chance you get to even THINK about pitching around anybody.
- Good News: Freeman should get a lot of strikes
- Bad news: if Heyward is sixth, he’ll lead the universe in walks.
I would not want to waste Jason’s speed that deep in the lineup. If you’re bent on putting Chipper third, then Jason should be 4th or 5th, flipped with Uggla. IMHO, you don’t want 3 LH’s in a row against a Lefty. This puts Brian 6th — still in a position to drive in runs, but without the speed disadvantage.
Heyward would then score more often than Heap, but that’s fine… 4th or 5th is a slot that would support run production and run scoring. So I hope Fredi comes to that conclusion.
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
We would still have three lefties in a row, unless you have Gonzo hitting seventh. Uggla, Heyward, Mac, and Freeman(4-7 spots)
You’re right of course – I was going to say something like “you don’t want 3 LH’s in a row against a Lefty ‘that high up in the lineup’”… but I was thinking 4-6 instead of 5-7…. but either way, yeah – I think we’ll probably see AGonz slotted 7th vs. LHers.
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
You are right that Heyward should not bat sixth, but for the wrong reason.
It isn’t our wasting Heyward’s speed that makes batting Heyward sixth a bad idea. Hell, batting sixth, he’ll be on base all the time (although protection is pretty much a myth, he’ll be on base all the time anyway) and given who is hitting behind him, he won’t have any reason not to run to avoid taking the bat out of their hands. So he would use his speed more batting sixth. Furthermore, he isn’t that fast, and speed is highly overrated.
The reason you bat Heyward higher than sixth is that he is, in all likelihood, our best hitter. Your best hitter doesn’t bat sixth. Second would be fine. Fourth would be fine. Third would be fine. His batting sixth is not the end of the world, but he should bat higher.
Mostly I mention speed simply because I wouldn’t want him having to check up behind McCann — so it’s more of a relative thing. He’s certainly not ‘leadoff guy’ fast, but he is first-to-third fast.
But overall, I agree, and it’s real nice to be thinking about how to best use people vs. where to hide them (I believe that was closer to our discussions last year — where to hide Nate in the order).
Fangraphs, on Craig Kimbrel: "His strikeout rates look like they’re coming from a video game"
Love the optimistism
But I get the feeling that we look like another great regular season team. We’re strong throughout the roster, but can we take down the Phuckers in a 7 game series? At this point, we wouldn’t be starting a LHP against their LH batters at all, while they’ve got 2 of the top 5 Ps in all MLB going in 4-5 of the games. Not impossible (I think we could take any other NL team in a 5 or 7 game series), but I’d have to give them the advantage on paper right now.
I realize it’s a long way off before we should even start thinking about the playoffs, but that’s what the announcers on ESPN and the MLB Network are discussing. In today’s age, the 162 game grind is nothing more than the entry fee for the “real” season in October. Sure, the discussion may be based around the regular season, but the announcers don’t care who the 25th guy on the roster is, they only care about the big names at the top who are the same guys that you’ll depend on to take a series…
You're right...
It’s too soon to bother thinking about the playoffs.
Which is a good thing! Baseball is the best regular season sport precisely because it’s such a long grind. One of the many reasons that football is utter garbage is the brevity of the season.
There are good reasons not to start thinking about the playoffs now.
1. It is a long regular season.
2. We have no idea who will make the playoffs yet.
3. We have no idea who will be healthy for any team in October.
4.
Even if we know who will make the playoffs and who will be healthy, it’s practically impossible to pick the winners in a set of short series.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Exactly. And it really doesn’t matter who wins the division. I think the NL East will have a division winner and a wildcard this year. Once everyone is in the playoffs, it’s a crapshoot.
I had the Phillies in the 94-95 win mark this year and the Braves at about 93 or so. That was before the Brown and Utley medical issues came to light. A lot of this does hinge on health — if Utley is hurt lots, the Phillies could lose 4 – 5 WAR. There’s a big drop from Utley to Castillo/Valdez/whomever. That said, I’m not counting on Chipper for more than 120 games.
The pen looks good, McClouth seems to be recovering from whatever ailed him last year (I said last year after the season ended that I expected a bouceback). There is organizational depth to trade for parts midseason (A Pujols rental? How sweet would that be?). There is really good starting pitching (not crazy good Phillies pitching, but really good, plus our “spare parts” starters are better than Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley).
I think it will be a dogfight.
Don’t forget the Marlins though. It is not inconceivable that they could make some noise fi they get a bit lucky.
Carrying on Bobby's Legacy!
by FrediGonzalez on Mar 21, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And hey
Sanchez says that Pujols is gonna sign for 8 years/$40MM, so if we get the rental, the extension practically writes itself.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Hey you...
you need to send Beard an email if possible to get your invite.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Exactly...
Trust me, I am optimistic about the Braves’ chances this year. Hell, everyone should have hope for their team at this point. But, not having a lefty in the starting rotation as of yet (and with the possibility of only 1 at the start of the season) has me worried. The Phillies can load their lineup with lefty hitters nearly top to bottom.
by aaaaandTheBravesWin on Mar 21, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Who cares? Their lineup isn’t that intimidating. I’m not sure where the fascination with handedness is coming from lately, but not having a left handed pitcher in the rotation doesn’t really matter at all. The Braves have great pitching regardless of their handedness.
Match ups matter. It always matters when you can’t expose the weakness of hitters in a lineup before a pitch is even thrown. I haven’t looked up the splits, but I’m assuming most of their lefthanded hitters and switch hitters post better overall numbers against righties. This is probably true for most teams. If someone has the stats handy, I’d like to see them.
In addition, the success of their starters is well documented. They will be good. Tough to argue and I hate to admit it. Because of that, limiting their runs in head-to-head match ups is even more important. They will be tough to score on 3/5ths of the time.
by aaaaandTheBravesWin on Mar 21, 2011 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Do Hudson, Hanson, Lowe and Jurrjens not have success against left handed hitters all the time? I just took two seconds to look at Hudson’s stats against Philly last year. He had a 0.95 WHIP and a .196 BAA. Too bad he’s not left handed. Hanson had a 1.21 ERA against them with a 1.16 WHIP and a .213 BAA.
You need good pitching. If you have talented starters, it doesn’t matter what hand they throw with or which side of the plate the hitter is standing on. lefty-righty matchups are for late inning relievers, not starters.
+1
Applying aggregate statistics to individual players is kind of silly. Just because lefties typically fare better against lefties doesn’t mean that the righties in our lineup can’t pitch effectively to left-handed hitters.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Small sample size
The Phillies do pretty well against RHP. Howard, in particular, has a huge platoon split. Against LHP, he’s a mortal. Against RHP, he’s God-fucking-zilla. 1.038 vs. .766 OPS tells you everything you need to know.
Handedness matters against the Phillies. That said, it may not matter as much against other lineups not so lefty-heavy as Philly.
Carrying on Bobby's Legacy!
by FrediGonzalez on Mar 21, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Irrelevant comparison
Just because Howard does well against RHP in general doesn’t mean he does well against any specific RHP. The individual pitcher’s lines against Philly may be a smaller sample size, but they’re much more relevant to this discussion.
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
Good Points
The Braves definitely have the talent to beat the Phillies and win the division. While ESPN is just drooling over how amazing the Phillies rotation is, they often fail to take into consideration the fact that the vast majority of starters on this team are 30+. Between the injuries that guys like Rollins and Utley have had over the past few years, the aging of the starting 8, and the loss of Werth, there is no way that the Phillies will have as potent of an offense that we have seen over the past few years. That being said, if the Braves can put up 4+ runs on the Phillies every time they play them, the Braves should be able to win the vast majority of those games.
While I like the 9 inning break down of the team, there are two areas that worry me about the team and the reasoning for the worries revolves around the same issue, inexperience. Frist is closing games. While I know Venters and Kimbrel have the stuff to become dominant closers, they each have one career save and have a combined 108 total appearances in major league games (including playoffs). The lack of experience could hurt, but I can see these two guys forming a tandem similar to the one we had a few years ago when the Braves had Soriano and Gonzalez.
The other concern is lack of experience coming off the bench. Ross and Hinske are obvious locks for the bench, then the rest is a bit of a toss up. While Brooks Conrad proved how clutch he is last year, but he has not had the best Spring training. He should earn a spot, but nothing is certain. For the fourth outfielder you have Mather, Young, Ramirez, and Schafer. Schafer is likely headed down to AAA. Neither Mather or Young have hit particularly well this Spring while Ramirez has contributed almost everywhere on the field. The issue here is that Mather is out of options so he would have to clear Waivers before being sent down. I do not know how the Braves are going to handle this, but I would not be surprised if Mather possibly gets moved if the Braves think he will not clear waivers.
Finally you have the need for a utility man/5th bench player. This looks like it is between Ed Lucas and Diory Hernandez. Personally I like the way Lucas has been swinging the bat this Spring and he looks like he could be the next Omar Infante with his versatility in the field. If the Braves feel that Diory’s defense is significantly better, he will probably get the nod over Lucas in order to have a good defensive replacement for late game situations.
The problem with the players who win the fourth outfielder and utility man spots is that they will have little if any experience at the major league level. These guys are mostly career minor league players who the Braves are hoping will produce if they make the team. While there is clearly depth in terms of who could be on the bench, I would not be surprised if Wren makes a move to add a proven bat to the bench.
line up
1. nate
2.prado
3.chipper
4.heyward
5.mccann
6.uggla
7.freeman
8.gonzo
I think I love you….
"Tony Gwynn made sacrifices. Cal Ripken made sacrifices. I'm not sure Derek Jeter made sacrifices given the ungodly deep pockets the Yankees have." - Chipper Jones
so what am I so afraid of?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Well done, Scott. I like your reasoned approach and rational thinking. May we both meet again in October.
LIVE EDT
Tape-delayed for the West Coast
i hope we meet again...
so we can inflict pain and suffering to that Horde of Locust led by the Caveman from the Geico commercial, in a way that you shall never forget that Posey was out…….!!!!
Request for gondee, cb, mvhs, yonda, etc...
if gondee is around spring training, or any of y’all feel like busting out the rolodex, can we figure out what the hell is up with the Wagner situation?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
It is kind of weird
that everybody’s gone quiet on that all of a sudden. Maybe DOB et. al. just got tired of fielding the same question over and over, but I’d expect there to at least be some sort of note a la “Wagner is still planning to retire, he just has to proof-read his resignation papers or whatever the current excuse is.”
"…the umps in San Francisco somehow missed Brooks Conrad’s tag at second base on a sliding Buster Posey, who could’ve been called out from a houseboat in Sausalito."
-- Tommy Craggs
I’ll see what I can do.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Twitter: @ScottColeman55
by Scott Coleman on Mar 21, 2011 8:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand y'alls circumstances...
so I’m not expecting much (except for maybe out of that king gondee, cause we all know how lazy cb is), but there has to be something going on here. That’s just such a strange situation for a guy who from all reports was 100% set on making last season his last season.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Thanks for asking that. I’ve been wondering too.
You won't always agree with me...Because sometimes you're wrong.
by JonnyBravesFan on Mar 22, 2011 12:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nice article
A very good premise with great execution.
Wait - Kelly Johnson hits lefties better than righties? That just HAS to be backwards. - Bobby Cox as he looks at KJ's splits for his career
by Jareth Cutestory on Mar 21, 2011 2:58 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Thank you everyone for the kind words.
I just felt like this post needed to be made. We have a really good team coming together here.
"That guy mvhsbball is really an insufferable schmuck." - FuquaManuel
Twitter: @ScottColeman55
good stuff
you got me more optimistic than i was before… i do worry about the age of Hudson and Lowe though… your right about this should be the best lineup we had in a few yrs… i’ll still say wild card but yeah Philly gotta watch out and don’t slack off because we will be ready to take it… it should be a fun season i can’t wait
It is a very nice summary.
However, I will quibble with two points:
1. While the Phillies’ rotation is getting tons of hype, the Braves have not gone unnoticed this spring. I have read/heard a lot about us being able to give the Phillies a race.
2. Clutch hitting is not a repeatable skill. Thus, I wouldn’t particularly count on Conrad being “clutch” again for us in 2011. Hell, I still doubt he makes the team out of spring training, although I assume he’ll be up for large portions of the year.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Oswalt doesn’t need to save the Rangers, he only needs to provide insurance and depth
- James Loney: Umpires should call pitches from behind mound — and be robots with replay
- Magglio Ordonez set to retire after 15 seasons
- Barry Bonds thinks it will be ‘very sad’ if he doesn’t get into the Hall on his first try
- Chris Johnson’s glove webbing had a Spidey sense at Coors Field — for one play, at least
