Cautious Fan Projections For Atlanta Braves Infielders

You know what i meant…

He has his perks and he has his weaknesses. and obviously his Zone was very good last year

Yes, I consider defensive statistics like UZR to be stable enough to show reliable results. Nine years (eight for Sea Bass because he missed a year) is a sufficient amount of data.

dWAR is one of the worst defensive statistics to use, according to most sabermetricians. It doesn’t account for anything other than defensive chances, putouts, assists, errors, and double plays turned. UZR uses items like where the ball was hit, the ball’s velocity, and a host of other variables, comparing the player to all other players making similar plays at that position in order to come to a conclusion. It’s a much more comprehensive statistic.

There is no defensive stat that can directly correlate to any one player’s true talent level, but +/- and UZR certainly come the closest by comparing players against each other to form a relative scale. dWAR doesn’t even attempt to compare players.

With dWAR, if one 2B fields a softly-hit grounder for an easy out and another 2B dives for a screamer up the middle and throws the runner out from his knees, it counts the same. If the screamer was hit by Michael Bourn and he’s safe, it counts against the fielder. If the fielder doesn’t get to the ball, it doesn’t count at all. If the 2B fields the ball and flips it to the SS to turn a potential DP, but the SS drops the ball on a good throw, it counts against the 2B. These types of plays happen every game, across the league, and the context of each is completely lost in dWAR.

You see large fluctuations and are scared by them, but they aren’t scary at all. With defensive stats, just look at trends. Barring one year, they’re all positive. Most years sit between a 5 and +10, with a few fluctuating above and a couple below. I’d put 5 at above average, 10 at excellent, and 15 at elite as a general trending scale (and the opposite for the negatives). So he’s been above average to excellent most of his career.

Any one year can be wherever, it’s the overall trend that matters. If he puts up a +13 or a +2 in any given year isn’t that big of a deal, but a UZR/150 of about 7.5 for an eight-year sample size is a good indicator of how he does versus other SSs comparatively.

Now, if he finished several seasons in a row with a negative value as his career winds down, then that would be a good indicator that the defense is starting to derail. But we’ve not seen that, so it’s not time to cry wolf just yet. Even if he regresses to a slightly above-average fielder, he’ll be worth the money we’re paying him (in comparison to another FA…obviously, minimum and arbitration players have discounted salaries and aren’t an entirely fair comparison, money-wise).

For this season, I’m not at all worried about Sea Bass in the field.

-C