SB Nation Atlanta Editor's Pick
I know exactly what our bench should look like
There's an interesting battle going on for the available spots on the Braves' bench, as everybody knows. I believe that I know which players should get those spots, and I think I can convince you that I'm right.
David Ross will make the team and needs no explanation.
Eric Hinske is also a lock, but it's worth mentioning that he is our primary left-handed pinch hitter, and that he can play left field and first base. He has not played third base extensively since 2003, and the Braves only had him play there one time last year. It might not matter that he can play third base, because Prado will move in when Chipper gets hurt. Keep in mind, however, that he is left handed and is best utilized when not asked to hit left handed pitching. Also keep in mind that Freeman is a very young left handed hitter, and is our everyday first baseman. We need somebody to platoon with Hinske in left field when Chipper is hurt, and we need a right handed backup at first base.
That's why Joe Mather makes the team. He's hitting well in Spring Training. He's right handed . He can play first base to backup Freeman, and he can play left field to platoon with Hinske when Prado is at third while Chipper is on the DL. His handedness and versatility in the field fits perfectly with the team we have in place. He can also play centerfield in a pinch, but I'll get to that later.
The other vital position to be filled on the bench is the backup shortstop. That should be Ed Lucas in my opinion. In 2009, Lucas only played 5 games in AAA, but he played 103 in AA and posted a .392 wOBA. Last year in AAA, he posted a .390 wOBA.
Diory Hernandez on the other hand played 54 games in AAA in 2009, and he played 30 games in AAA during 2010. His wOBA in those years was .369 and .336 respectively. Both are performing well in Spring Training so far, but Lucas has been better in recent years. What puts him over the edge, though, is that he's a better baserunner. Hernandez has never even come close to having an acceptable stolen base percentage, while Lucas has had a season in which he stole 18 bases and was caught only 3 times ('09) and last year he stole 7 bases and was caught once. I'm not saying he's exceptionally fast; I have no idea how quick he is, but he's obviously a better basestealer than Hernandez, and I'm guessing that means he's a bit faster. Lucas gets my vote.
That leaves only one available spot on the bench. It pains me to say it, but Brooks Conrad doesn't get it. The final spot should go to Matt Young, and here's why.
Young fills the centerfield void and he gives us speed off the bench. Yes, the Braves are saying they'd be comfortable having Mather as the backup in center, but Matt Young gives us a legitimate base stealing threat off the bench. While Lucas does get the nod over Hernandez in part because of his speed, it does not mean that he is an ideal pinch-runner late in games when the Braves really need to get a runner in from first base. Young has stolen 72 bases in the past two seasons and was caught 28 times. He is the legitimate pinch-runner that the Braves must have on their bench. That's on top of being able to play centerfield, which already makes him a great candidate to be on the bench.
In summation, Lucas wins the shortstop spot because he's better than Hernandez. Young wins a spot because his speed is needed on the bench, and he can actually play good defense in center field unlike Mather. Mather wins his spot because he's the right handed backup we need for Freeman, and he's the ideal platoon partner for Hinske if/when Chipper misses time due to injury.
Also keep in mind that third base is well covered on this team beyond the fact that Prado can move in if needed. Both Mather and Lucas can play there as well. Also, Lucas and Mather should both be decent pinch hitting options from the right side of the plate.
Here's your bench:
C - David Ross
LF/Primary LH Pinch Hitter - Eric Hinske
1b/LF/RF - Joe Mather
SS/2B - Ed Lucas
CF/Pinch Runner - Matt Young
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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First off, Mather is not hitting well, but he’ll still make the team. We wouldn’t go out and sign him to put him in the minors. I disagree with Matt Young over Brooksy. Conrad’s switch handed bat is too good to not make the team, and he’s a huge help late in games because of the fact that he can bat on both sides (as displayed last year).
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
by Daff11 on Mar 12, 2011 7:41 PM EST via mobile reply actions
As bad as Mather is hitting, he’s still hitting better than Brooks Conrad.
Did Brooks give you guys a bunch of money or something? He has had one good stretch of clutch hitting in 2 years, and yet, that somehow outweighs all of the negatives he brings.
Does anyone besides me realize how bad he actually is? In three seasons, this is his career line: .231 .296 .445 .741 – That’s right – and OBP worse than 300 and a batting average south of .235 for his career.
Brooks has a reputation as a great bat off the bench. Well, his career numbers suggest otherwise:
As a starter: .259 .325 .462 .786
Off the bench: .186 .247 .419 .666
That’s right – He has Satan’s OPS.
People say that he is great in the late innings – really?
Innings 1-3: .302 .362 .512 .873
Innings 4-6: .203 .282 .297 .579
Innings 7-9: .241 .303 .545 .848
He has an OBP of .303 in the 7th inning or later for his career. If anything, we should start him, bat him 2nd and then substitute him after his 1st AB.
Oh, and one final thing for his career numbers: His stats at home – .210 .288 .390 .678
I just don’t get all the love for Brooks Conrad. Sure, he switch hits (for an OBP of .296). Sure, he hit a couple of huge home runs last season.
Does anyone remember 2009 in those clutch late-season situations when we were chasing a WC? I’m talking about that period when Brooks went 0-26 PAs with a slash line of: .000 .115 .000 .115
Or, how about his bat in our postseason push last season? In Sept/Oct, he put up a stellar .265 .286 .441 .727 line.
And in the playoffs, he put up a whopping 1-11 performance.
I just don’t get it. I’m sure he’s a great guy (by all accounts, he’s fantastic) but, great guys don’t win championships. Guys that are good at baseball do.
It’s not fair to Brooks for us to hold him to this high standard that we do around here (Automatically making the team, because he is always going to hit a HR in the 9th inning).
Lucas should make the team over Conrad.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 12, 2011 8:17 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Amazing post. Lucas has to make this team! Send brooksy to AAA and keep him there.
In baseball, you're supposed to sit on your ass, spit tobacco, and nod at stupid things. Perfect life might I add.
by HeywardFTW! on Mar 12, 2011 9:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Brooks isn't horrible.
He is just a classic 26th guy on the roster. Unless there is an injury, he should start most seasons in the minors. I mean, for a major league regular, he is bad. That is why he isn’t a major league regular. For a major league bench guy, he isn’t good, either, which is why he is a 26th kind of guy.
Exactly. However, most people around here seem to be clamoring for him to not only make the team, but to be the 1st PH option off the bench – that’s not really a 26th kind of guy.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
I haven't seen a single person argue...
for him “to be the 1st PH option off the bench”. Where do you get this stuff?
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 13, 2011 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions
You have not seen all of the conversations that I have had then.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions
then you need to learn...
to ignore those comments for the idiocy they contain. As Ron White says, you can’t fix stupid.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Way to build a mountain of cards using exclusively SSS data. You often claim objectivity, but your bashing Brooks at pretty much every opportunity based on tiny slices of numbers is pretty bothersome. You’ve already formed your opinion, and you’re looking for ways to back it up, rather than caring about what the numbers actually say.
It’s not like Brooks Conrad is some bastion of baseball talent, but I’m perfectly okay with him being a 25th man on the bench.
If a SSS says he is not deserving of a roster spot, and enormously smaller ss says he is.
Any data for a career bench player is going to be a small sample size. But, it is what it is – we can only use the data we have.
I didn’t cherry pick anything. I posted exactly what he has done – which is quite contrary to the perception that people have of him – especially around here.
Have you not seen the posts that say “Keep Brooksie because he is ZOMG CLUTCH!”
The stats say he isn’t clutch.
My opinion wasn’t just arbitrarily formed. It was formed based on the facts – which I have just posted. I’m not in search of anything to back up my opinion, because everything supports it.
Brooks is a AAAA player – AAAA players are really, really, REALLY good baseball players – just not MLB good.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
It’s not cherry-picking to put up inning slices of 1-3, 4-6, an 7-9? That’s completely pointless sample distortion. It doesn’t tell you anything definitive at all, and only limits the size of the sample you’re looking at. Just looking at career major league splits for someone with only 254 career plate appearances is pointless, and you’re drawing inferences from it as if you’re learning things. Just look at his career line .231/.296/.445. Not exactly what I’d like to have as a starting firstbaseman, but with a wRC+ of 99, that’s essentially a league average bat, which absolutely isn’t a terrible thing to have as your 25th man.
And you also demeaned his .245/.303/.545 line in innings 7-9, even though that’s pretty damn sexy for a pinch hitter. 8 of his 10 career home runs have come after the 7th inning-I’d say that means he’s at least had clutch moments, even if he’s not truly “clutch.”
It’s not like we’re flush with bench options such that he’s clearly not deserving a spot. He’s had some minor league success, where he’s been able to showcase plus power, even if his OBP is poor. And his OBP isn’t even Alex Gonzalez bad-.313 for Oakland’s AAA affiliate in 2008, and in Gwinnett in 2009, it was a very respectable.358 while he posted a .353 wOBA. He had a cup of tea in the majors both years and was pretty bad, but in very limited opportunities, so last year was the longest stretch when he was with a major league team.
Keep in mind, last season (again, with a SSS caveat as only had 177 PAs) he posted a higher wOBA than Martin Prado. Oh-fucking-yeah, he actually did. So he’s proven he at least has the capability of producing at a major league level over a season, something which Diory Hernandez and Ed Lucas have not done. And yes, I’m acknowledging the SSS caveat there, but I’m still pointing at a bigger sample than your silly home/away and starter/bench splits. Plus, it’s the most recent data, which always weighs more heavily.
Last year might have been a fluke and he was playing over his head a little bit, but the advantage he has over the guys he’s competing with for a spot is that it DID happen, and WAS useful. There just isn’t a choice that’s clearly better. Remember, spring numbers are pointless.
Again, if I am guilty of using a SSS of saying that he doesn’t deserve a spot, then it is an extremely small sample size that says he does deserve a spot.
I split his innings up to thwart the perception that he is ZOMG GOOD in late innings.
I am not sure what your standards are, but a .243 average with a .303 OBP is not really that sexy.
I don’t care about his minor league numbers, as they are not all that impressive for a late-20s (at the time) player.
Spring training numbers are pointless – which is why I didn’t say that Brooks is batting something like .140 with an OBP of about .160 in Spring training.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, if I am guilty of using a SSS of saying that he doesn’t deserve a spot, then it is an extremely small sample size that says he does deserve a spot.
I don’t even know what the hell to do with this. I told you to look at the most recent data, namely, his full last season, in which he had 177 PAs. That’s not a smaller sample size than you’re using, it’s bigger. And it’s a good offensive season, especially for a 25th man.
I am not sure what your standards are, but a .243 average with a .303 OBP is not really that sexy.
Now you’re just being intentionally dense. That .545 SLG is the real key, and it does make up for the OBP deficiency. Again, not something I’d want for a starting first baseman, but for a bench player to come in with that? Hell yeah! That’s approximately a WRC+ of 120, meaning, well above league average offensive value for a major league hitter. If you don’t want that, you’re placing ridiculously high standards for usage of a bench spot.
I split his innings up to thwart the perception that he is ZOMG GOOD in late innings.
Again, not at all making your point because you’re pretending like those are NOT good numbers. They are.
By the way, I know you’ve used Fangraphs before, so why didn’t you look at their splits for, say, high leverage? Possibly because it doesn’t support your point: .324/.390/.730 in high leverage situations for his career. WRC+ of 209. Admittedly, he’s been pretty awful in medium leverage situations. If there were an easy way to combine his medium/high leverage numbers and look at those numbers, I would. For what little it’s worth (these things fluctuate year to year), his clutch rating on FG is 1.54, which is among the best in the game, for those not familiar with it.
I don’t care about his minor league numbers, as they are not all that impressive for a late-20s (at the time) player.
You’re intentionally ignoring data, instead choosing to focus exclusively on the smaller sample of his major league hitting. Which again, is league average, but you also seem to be ignoring that.
I’m not going to respond on this topic any more until you have something else that’s reasonable to say. It’s taking too much effort to show every way in which you’re being wrong.
by Bronn on Mar 13, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
So, just so I am clear on what you are saying: you would prefer a pinch hitter who can hit dingerz to one that won’t make outs?
It almost sounds as if you are arguing that Brooks is the exception to the rule, and that he can repeat his clutch hits (all of which happened in a small stretch of one season – totally ignoring the longer stretches in which he was pretty bad in other “clutch” situations over the last two seasons).
Call me crazy, but I’d prefer a PH have an OBP much higher than Alex Gonzalez’ – whether he can hit an occasional HR or not.
If anyone is intentionally ignoring data, it’s you, as you have yet to respond to those large stretches of time in which Brooks has all but disappeared offensively.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions
"So, just so I am clear on what you are saying: you would prefer a pinch hitter who can hit dingerz to one that won’t make outs?"
Simple contrast then. Greg Norton in 09 had a higher OBP (.330) than Conrad last year. I’ll take Conrad. As said when Norton was our primary pinch hitter, while not making outs is nice, pinch hitters are usually up at a time when you need runs, so imo the SLG is more beneficial in that instance.
Apparently, you’d prefer a 2009 Norton to a 2010 Conrad, and I’m thinking you’ll be pretty lonely in that preference.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Actually, the fact is, you’d like to have a hitter who has a high OBP and high SLG up at pretty much all times. It takes both. You’re just not getting that when you’re digging down the bench for a pinch hitter.
Brooks Conrad, we know, does one thing well-he hits the ball hard. Career ISO of .214 has value in the batter’s box, even if it’s married to a .311 OBP (just pulled that from Bill James’ projections). Being deficient in the OBP category means Conrad is not an elite offensive player, but unless his skills have entirely disappeared, he is a good one. “Good” is good enough to be on the bench for any big league team-often you’re struggling to find guys who can make any useful contributions at all
"you’d like to have a hitter who has a high OBP and high SLG up at pretty much all times"
I thought that was pretty much and understood by all fact. But as your next sentence says, if you are digging on the bench for a pinch hitter, unless one of your studs like a Chipper or Heyward are getting the day off, you’re not gonna find such a hitter. So when faced with the option of decent OBP but weak SLG (ala Norton in 2009) or weak OBP but solid SLG (ala Conrad 2010), I prefer the latter, while justin apparently the former. That was the point. For a pinch hitter, you’re chances of getting that ideal high OBP and high SLG is slim to none, so when forced to choose between the two, I think SLG is more important than the OBP considering the general task required of pinch hitters (to drive in runs during high pressure situations).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
I’m just saying that you’re kind of creating an OBP vs. SLG dilemma here, which isn’t what this is about. It’s not that you’d prefer one over the other. You’d prefer the hitter who’s the more valuable. That’s what wOBA and wRC+ are good for-weighing things out and seeing who is the most valuable per AB.
Brooks Conrad had a .356 wOBA last year. That’s actually really good. If that’s his true talent level (it probably isn’t, but I’ll pretend it is since I really don’t know) that is objectively in every way superior to Greg Norton’s 2009, where his wOBA was .262. That’s f-n terrible. But it’s not any worse than a guy whose line is .100/.100/.400, in which he makes outs 90% of the time but all of his hits are home runs. I don’t want that guy either.
However, if I’m looking at Brooks Conrad 2010, and I’m deciding between him and a guy who has like, a .350 OBP and a .400 SLG, that’s a much closer call, and I might go with the other guy in that case.
Not trying to say that I like Brooks Conrad because he’s a pure slugger, but his OBP is not terrible for a fringe major leaguer, and the SLG side of his hitting is very good, which makes him above average. Getting above average hitting out of your 25th man is a good thing when some teams are getting replacement level hitting from certain starters.
Gotcha,...
and agreed. But to be clear, I’m not creating that dilemma here, I was just answering justin’s question of “So, just so I am clear on what you are saying: you would prefer a pinch hitter who can hit dingerz to one that won’t make outs?” And used the examples of 09 Norton as one who “won’t make outs” and Conrad last year for the “can hit dingerz” to answer his question.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 14, 2011 12:23 PM EDT up reply actions
the point was made...
brooks conrad had an .811 ops in 177 plate appearances last year. there’s really nothing else to argue. that’s amazing production off the bench.
on conrand last year: conrad was forced into a position that exposed his weaknesses when both chipper and prado had season ending injuries. anyone that’s played serious baseball knows how much of a thinking game it is. brooks played horribly in the field down the stretch and became a bit of a headcase by season’s end, obviously affecting his offensive production. the postseason was just icing on the proverbial baseball cake.
if he can put last year behind him, his numbers speak for themselves.
Bubba Sparxxx: It's gettin' Uggla...IN HERE! UP IN HERE!
I would prefer the OBP to the SLG off the bench for the simple fact that in theory, a PH hits in a late-and-close game situation where runs are needed. Instead of putting all of my eggs in one basket and hoping that my PH hits one out (The Bobby Cox “wait on the 3-run HR” mentality) I’d prefer my PH just not make an out – whether that be through a BB or a H, it doesn’t matter to me.
If he walks, then, pressumably I have better hitters (the top of my lineup) coming up behind him. If he gets a hit, even better.
So yes, I would prefer a 2009 Greg Norton with an OBP around .350 (I can’t remember exactly what it was) to a 2010 Brooks Conrad who can definitely end a game on one swing, but cannot be counted on to do that, as we have discussed clutch hitting, repeatable skill, ad nauseum.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 14, 2011 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Point of clarification here: the 2009 Greg Norton and the 2010 Brooks Robinson are obviously the extremes to the example, as Norton never hit and Conrad seemed to always get the big hit.
My preference is based on the assumption that neither of the trends would continue over any extended period of time.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 14, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Brooks Robinson?
Man, he’d look great on our bench. His glove would really help us out if Chipper gets hurt. We should see what he’s doing these days.
Ha. I did that twice today!
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 14, 2011 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions
From DOB
“He led the Braves with a .313 average and 1.115 OPS in close-and-late situations, just ahead of Hinske’s .302 average and 1.009 OPS. Conrad had 10 extra-base hits including a team-high five homers and 17 RBIs in 48 close-and-late at-bats.”
Like someone else said, its always small sample size, but judging by last years performance, you absolutely have to say that he was a good bat off the bench and CLUTCH.
oy...clutch
no, no, he wasn’t clutch. He hit well in what would amount to less than 10% of a full season. For 48 at bats, anyone could hit .313 with 1.115 OPS, regardless of the situation. It has nothing to do with clutch.
You know why Conrad even had 48 at bats “close and late”? Because he’s a pinch hitter, of course. You don’t pinch hit for your starter in the first inning typically, so the majority of his few at bats will come in “close and late” situations. Using that situation for anyone but a starter is a useless statistic. Tell someone Jason Heyward or Brian McCann’s “close and late” numbers, not Hinske’s or Conrad’s.
For comparison, here’s who Brooks Conrad is, according to his last three minor league seasons, all spent at AAA primarily: 1591 plate appearances, .241 BA, .800 OPS. Take the effect of his age (31) being beyond his prime and general regression of AAA to major league stats, and your expected line from Conrad is about a .225 BA and .750 OPS. That’s in full time at bats, which means he will have streaks where he comes nowhere near that, just like he had a streak last year of very good productivity in a small sample size.
An appropriate sample size would be 2-3 seasons of data, so at least 1000 plate appearances minimum. Basing any assumption on under 200 plate appearances is terribly small sample size.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 2:37 AM EDT up reply actions
You don’t consider a walk off grand slam clutch? Let’s not let metrics (or lack of one to define clutch) get in the way of common sense.
A "clutch" moment? Sure.
But a moment doesn’t make a player “clutch” in his description. Did he suddenly become “unclutch” with the glove in October? There are clutch singular moments, but not clutch hitters or clutch players, for that matter.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 5:10 AM EDT up reply actions
No such thing as clutch players? Please explain because I’d say Jason Heyward is a clutch player. He doesn’t have to get a hit in every single clutch moment to remain clutch, but multiple game winning hits seems pretty clutch to me. Last year Brooks Conrad was clutch. He came through on a number of occasions when we needed someone to step up. Brooksie may not remain clutch for the rest of his career but he was clutch last season. Sure he made some backbreaking errors and has gone through his share of slumps at the plate, but to say he wasn’t clutch last season is ignoring how many times he excelled and even won games for the Braves.
Michael Jordan missed over two dozen game winning shots but he was the most clutch basketball player of all time. Kobe Bryant misses a majority of the potential game-winning shots he attempts, but he’s still known as a clutch player. If there are clutch moments then there are bound to be clutch players. There are stats for clutch situations; simply compare the numbers and you’ll see which players are more clutch than others and a line can be drawn at some point to determine clutchness. Clutch situations may happen three days in a row, three times a game or once week; their appearance is inconsistent so players may go weeks without hitting in a clutch situation. The sample size will inevitably be small but that’s not to say it doesn’t exist just because its not as cut and dry as the simple metrics like BA, OBP or SLG.
It does not exist
There is no statistically significant different performance in players to prove “clutch”. This has been discussed plenty already on this board, though, so there’s no need to re-hash it here.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 8:54 AM EDT up reply actions
This is all I read
statsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstats
statsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstats
statsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstatsstats
Look at the list of the best “clutch” players over the last 100 years. I am willing to bet my retirement that the list would be almost identical to a list of the best hitters over the last 100 years.
The best hitters are the best clutch hitters – because over any extended period of time, nobody has been “clutch”.
To suggest a player is clutch is to also suggest that he doesn’t try his best all of the time.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 14, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Some players do not try their absolute best at all times but that’s unrelated to clutch; it’s just lazness or complacency.
Yes, usually the best hitters are the most clutch. The thing that makes them clutch is the same greatness that makes them a great hitter, coupled with the mental toughness to avoid getting thrown off their game by the pressure of the moment.
Clutchness is like heart
If it does actually exist, it is way overrated.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Clutch and heart both exist...I speak from experience
I currently play soccer at a high level (roughly Double A equivalent) and I have played baseball, basketball, tennis, and golf at competitive levels. People who play soccer with me know that while I am not the most skilled player (otherwise I would be pro) my effort and work rate keep me in the game. I leave almost every game bleeding – literally. I am one of the hardest working players on the field, but I cannot go 100%, 100% of the time.
However, I can tell you that if there are two minutes remaining and we are down by one or tied, I work harder, I am more focused, and I press my body harder physically in order to create or score the tying or winning goal. I work harder and am more focused than earlier in the game. Because I care more than the average player, I have more will, and thus push my muscles harder to beat my opponent. This is heart.
Yes, I often create and score goals late in the game more often than others because I push myself harder to in these situations…this is clutch. I can tell you that I definitely have better “stats” in close in situations than when we are ahead or losing by a lot.
Anybody that has seriously played sports at a high level knows that “clutch” and “heart” both most definitely exist.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions
please note
I have enormous respect for statistics (I base my fantasy teams off of it). I believe that stats are usually a good indication of how good a player is totally. A “clutch” statline is hard to create because, as someone previously mentioned, clutch situations are infrequent and the people in clutch situations are there mostly by luck (as in who is at bat in the clutch moment or who receives the ball in the clutch moment). However, if clutch does not exist, please explain to me why in every close moment with the game on the line the Bulls team knew to immediately get the ball to Jordan (and not Pippen who was also a great player.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions
ok..better example
The Lakers with Shaq and Kobe. Both incredible players who put enormous amount of points on the board. Who do you want to have the ball with 1.2 seconds left in a tie game. I am going with Kobe because he is clutch. While Shaq was at that time an equally great player…he was not clutch.
I have a better comparison below with Maradona v. Jordan in their respective sports.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Wouldn’t you say the ability to sustain normal stat levels in the highest of pressure situations could define clutch? In that thread we decided that a player could be unclutch by letting the moment get the best of him and succumbing to the pressure. A clutch player does the opposite.
No
That would stating that failure is the expectation. A player either 1. improves, 2. stays the same, or 3. fails. As far as performance in “clutch” situations goes, there has been no statistical evidence that anyone consistently does #1, but #2 and #3 have been statistically significant possibilities. I will grant you that logic would say that if there is “unclutch” there is “clutch” in converse, but the studies do not support this.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 10:01 AM EDT up reply actions
I never implied failure is the expectation, not sure where you got that. No one expects to fail, but in baseball it’s inevitable that a hitter will fail a majority of the time. Does that make everyone a bad hitter? It’s all about context. Maybe no one improves their performance during clutch situations but that wasn’t my point. It’s unrealistic to ask anyone to perform better than their best under the highest pressure situations but perhaps clutch is maintaining your performance instead of being unclutch because of the immense pressure of the situation. Pressure can easily throw someone off their game, so maintaining composure and performing naturally is what it means to be clutch. I’m not always interested in what the numbers say, clutch is such a small sample size for numbers to matter anyway and stats are not the end all be all of every discussion.
Implication
is not just yours. The idea that maintaining status quo indicates clutch ability is failed logic. To have true “clutch” there would need to be a change in performance from normal. Normal would not be “clutch”, it’d be expected. If I’m used to Chipper Jones getting a hit 33% of the time, and he comes up 3 times in a game in “clutch” situations, I’d expect one hit. However, if he comes up with 3 in that game, I would wager that there will be more that he will come up with 0.
Michael Jordan shot WORSE on game winning shots than his career numbers. Our perception of clutch does not make it real.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 5:27 PM EDT up reply actions
You seem to be oblivious to the effects of pressure in sports. To imply someone should be able to perform better than their best at any time, much less in the most high pressured, most scrutinized conditions, is a failure of common sense. Michael Jordan may have missed a number of game winning shots, but with time running out and the game on the line who else would you want taking the last shot?
There are clutch situations, this is a fact. What do you call someone who excels in those situations?
LOL
I played sports to a fairly high level. I understand the pressures of collegiate sports, and I have personal friends who have played in MLB and the NFL. The ability to remain the same in tough situations is as much muscle training and allowing your previous practice to take over as it is anything mental. Where the mental end of the game really comes into play is the failure end of things, typically because someone’s own racing thoughts get him into trouble.
I’d want Jordan taking a last shot, but I’d also wanting Jordan taking the shot with 6 minutes left in the second quarter as well. I’d want Jordan taking the shot most of the time, that doesn’t make him clutch.
Someone who performs as he always does in high-end situations is simply performing at his normal level. Someone who would play above their normal playing level in such situations would earn a tag of being a clutch player, but sadly, those players simply do not exist.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Maradona v. Jordan
Both considered by some to be the greatest ever players in their respective sports – Maradona in soccer Jordan in basketball.
Maradona was am amazing player who won almost everything there is to win in soccer as well as scoring perhaps the greatest goal ever scored. He was pure skill and talent…but he was NOT clutch. He never scored the winning goal in the World Cup, despite being in the situation several times.
Jordan, equally amazing talent won everything there is to win in basketball. Jordan was clutch. When the game was on the line, he took the shot and he scored.
Both players scored at almost all other times in the game and played great in all games. Both are considered among the greatest sports players ever. Jordan was clutch, Maradona was not.
There are your two examples.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions
note
I want Maradona to have the ball at any time in the World Cup final, he was simply an amazing player, who could create a goal anywhere and with anyone or alone. But I do not want him taking the game deciding PK in injury time in a tie game.
I want Jordan to have the ball at any time in the NBA finals, and I DO want him taking the free-throw in a tie game with 0.01 on the clock.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
You don’t want your best player to have as many opportunities as possibly to help your team win the game? That’s not so smart.
not in the above situation
because while Maradona was unequivocally the best player on the team (and in the world at that time) he did not handle insanely intense moments as well as others. For a comparison (not contrast) see Dino Baggio 1994 World Cup final. Baggio was arguably the best player in the world at the time, but missed the crucial PK in the shootout loss to Brazil.
Now contrast that to Micheal Jordan.
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
sorry Roberto Baggio not Dino
Dino was also a great player but in 1994 Roberto Baggio was the best player, and he missed the crucial PK in the World Cup final PK shootout loss to Brazil
by Santaklose11 on Mar 22, 2011 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you’re wrong. I think you have faulty perceptions of players being clutch, just because you like to romanticize sports and you choose to believe that you and players like you have more “heart” than the average player, and therefore perform better in clutch situations.
Whether or not a player’s career produced a high total of “clutch” performances is more happenstance than a result of that player not having “heart” or “clutchness”. Furthermore, many players are viewed as clutch or uncluth, and fans who have watched those players will swear up and down that they did or did not perform in clutch situations. Then, in many cases, the facts will show that those fans were completely wrong with their perceptions. I believe you are one of those wrong fans.
Actually..
“studies” do support that clutch (meaning do the same thing regardless of the situation) exists. It’s the most logical definition of clutch. Some people fail under the bright lights, some are unaffected. Unaffected = clutch. See the fanpost thread on clutch for “studies”.
You just completely agreed with my point
True “clutch” would show improvement in performance in heightened situations, not stability in that performance. To say that “clutch” is expecting failure out of everyone else is a flawed logical argument in and of itself. So unaffected = normal. Affected = failed. Improved = clutch.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
Close and late:
2008 – 1 PA – .000/.000/.000
2009 – 19 PA – .111/.158/.278
2010 – 55 PA – .313/.365/.750
Career – 75 PA – .254/.306/.612
Career overall – 254 PA – .231/.296/.445
Other than the outlier power spike of last year, he’s basically the same player for his career in late situations as he is at any other time.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
He came through in clutch situations last year – as opposed to 2009 when he did not come through.
Nobody is arguing that Conrad had HUGE hits for us last seasons during some crucial moments.
However, if you think he can make his living by being able to do that on a consistent basis, we will then disagree.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 14, 2011 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
for arguments sake…
Brooks COnrad’s WPA last year was 2.24
his WPA/Li was .23
both those numbers are pretty solid…FYI…and both to a relative degree measue a player’s clutchiness.
BTW Justin…again you are entirely too fascinated by OBP (which is really important but there are other needs). And you continually make the factitious argument that whenever someone mentions a higher SLG all that matters is “DINGERZ”…that is not the argument the argument is that player X provides value by hitting the ball really hard, occasionally those balls end up on the other side of some fencing that was set up in the OF, but more often it just implies that extra bases are had…Extra base hits score runs more often than singles..
the argument should be is the increase in SLG (or ISO) worth the lack of OBP…it seems to you that no player could possibly have a high enough SLG to justify a low OBP…but that isn’t a good way to evaluate talent… I’m not saying SLG is more importnat than OBP (no one would suggest that), only that you need a solid balance in a player and if a player has enough SLG he can make up for deficiencies in OBP.
wOBA is supposed to make that calculation (the balancing scale of SLG v OBP) for us. if a player provides a solid wOBA (and there doesn’t appear to be a significant amount of luck in that wOBA, which is a standard assumption with basically any stat), then said player is useful.
last season Brooks’ wOBA was 356…now I don’t pretend to believe he can maintain that level of production over a full season’s ABs, but its not out of the realm that his true talent level is around a 330wOBA, which is more than serviceable from a bench player.
also, Ross should (read SHOULD) be our nbr 1 option as a pinch hitter, the dude is a beast…but seeing as we refuse to carry another C to allow for this (which in part i agree with)..that won’t happen….i just felt it should be mentioned.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Brooks was very hot for a stretch last season – but he hasn’t shown that it wasn’t a fluke. The numbers for the rest of the season and from 2009 support the idea that he really isn’t that good of a hitter.
And of course, there are SLG%s that are high enough to make up for a lack of OBP – but usually the guys with SLG%s that high (Dunn for example) have the OBP to back it up.
I’m struggling to think of a player who has a great SLG% but poor OBP who is an asset to his team…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 15, 2011 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Not sure where you'd draw the line for "great" SLG and "poor" OBP, but...
Ivan Rodriguez has had much better SLG than OBP, and he’s been an asset.
Ryan Howard has had a decent OBP, but his SLG has been his primary contribution.
Joey Belle (aka Albert) got better in OBP as his career went on, but his first two seasons saw it in the .320s, and his SLG made him an asset to those Indian clubs.
Same with Juan Gonzalez his first two seasons (and a couple others after that).
Sammy Sosa had horrible OBPs (outside of his prime juice years), and his SLG kept him as a valuable hitter.
Ernie Banks’ offensive value was much greater in his SLG (career .500) than his OBP (career .330).
That’s just off a quick 10 minute scan of some b-r numbers of the top 100 in career SLG.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions
But none of those guys had OBPs below the MLB average.
It’s not like I am against guys with decent OBPs and ridiculous SLG.
I’m against guys who have good SLG with terrible OBP – like Alex.
And most of those guys you listed are borderline HoF who all seemed to improve their OBP as they went on, and none of them had terrible OBPs – all were at least hovering around the league-average mark.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
they were also all starters…why don’t we lower the standard a bit for the 25th guy on the roster…
or for a guy who is a tremendous defensive SS
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Sorry for wanting better options off of the bench…
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Tell me who is definitely better than Brooksy of our available options and I’ll be totally on board. You apparently seem convinced this guy exists-I know that he does not.
Let’s be sure we’re not framing this as an OBP vs. SLG argument. Ideally you want plenty of both, and if you can’t, you want the best mix, whatever that is. You’ll want the guy with the best wOBA or wRC+. Bill James’ projection for Brooks has him at a .327 wOBA, a wRC+ of 104. That’s slightly above average. Coming from a bench player, that’s absolutely gravy. It’s lots, lots better than what Alex Gonzalez is expected to hit, and is lots better than what we got from anybody who played CF last year. It’s pretty much equal to what Diory Hernandez did last year at AAA.
MLB average is pretty valuable, remember. Above average is awesome when you’re talking about a 25th man.
I’m not a believer that Brooks Conrad’s hot streak is the real Brooks Conrad. I think the Brooks Conrad that all but disappeared down the stretch in 2 consecutive seasons is more than likely who we will see.
There are no options who are “definitively better” based on stats (particularly because most of the other options have 0-very limited MLB playing time).
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm really confused
Those projections are highly regressed from what Conrad did in 2010, where he was a .356 wOBA hitter. Projections have him as a .327 wOBA guy for 2011, not nearly as good per AB, but still above average. Are you saying that you think he’s also much worse than that?
And if you don’t think there’s a clearly better option for our bench, why are you so anti-Conrad?
Because he is terrible at defense, mainly.
And that we have other guys who are unknowns. Just because they are unknowns doesn’t mean that they won’t be better. They just have nothing to back up how good they are or aren’t.
And am I saying that Conrad is worse than his projections that have him being above-average?
Based on his career MiLB and career MLB numbers, yes. And I don’t even hesitate to make that statement.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 17, 2011 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Name that quote....
“Well what I’m sayin’ is that there are known knowns and that there are known unknowns but there’s also unknown unknowns. Things we don’t know that we don’t know.”
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 17, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
You got me on this one.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 17, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Who is Donald Rumsfeld?
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Close
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w5JqQLqqTc&feature=related
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
no I am right…he is quoting Rumsfeld in that clip…so victory for me
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
For accuracy's sake...
he is more paraphrasing Rumsfeld than directly quoting him.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
that said thank you for that…it was utterly wonderful..i love me some Sam Jackson
SAY WHAT AGAIN!
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
You don't watch Boondocks?
they’ve had some hilarious ones. MLK going into a coma and coming back (instead of dying) is one of the best.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
There aren't many...
The poster boy for this is Alfonso Soriano (.326/.509 career), with the Banks falling second historically in that regard. The Cubs likely complete the trifecta with Andre Dawson. Other notables include Raul Mondesi, Mark Reynolds, Joe Carter, Garrett Anderson, and Eric Karros. There are plenty more borderline candidates that are just a bit more above league average.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Mar 16, 2011 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions
And I wanna mention....
also, Ross should (read SHOULD) be our nbr 1 option as a pinch hitter, the dude is a beast…but seeing as we refuse to carry another C to allow for this (which in part i agree with)..that won’t happen….i just felt it should be mentioned.
I wish we had been able to sign a Brandon Inge for the bench, as he could be that 3rd C as well as backup 3B, 1B, LF, and RF.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions
At least we got Sherril and Linebrink.
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 16, 2011 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Dont think that covers it
1.2 mil spent on Sherril, 2 mil for Linebrink (I think the rest is covered by the Sox). Inge got 11.5million over 2 years.
Still need to trade KK to make that happen and even then we have to get some bullpen arms (which I guess could be our in house options).
With that said, I like Inge a lot. Just dont know about his price for a bench guy.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
What doughnut said douchejuice
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions
He signed for $12 million. that's a bit much for a bench guy, no?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Yes...
that’s a bit much and certainly out of the Braves price range for a bench player.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 16, 2011 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
I say he performed well in those moments last season
Yet his career in those situations looks a lot like his full season numbers over his career, indicating that it’s not a “skill” or predictable ability for 2011. Arguing that Conrad is going to be the same guy in 2011 is like arguing that Adam LaRoche will start the season well in 2011 because in 2010 he had a .954 OPS in April without realizing that over his career, he bats .211 with a .701 OPS in April. Taking the most recent season’s performance as pure indication of future performance is flawed logic.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 5:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Mather is hitting terribly in Spring Training. What are you talking about?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 12, 2011 8:03 PM EST reply actions
but mather has ben compared to jason werth
so he has to make the team
by JohnRocker4CyYoung on Mar 12, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions
The comparissons are not too far off – same body type, similar numbers, similar career progression – the difference right now is Werth took off – will Mather?
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 12, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions
Dun dun dunnnn!
"I still feel like I have something to offer, and the cynical fan can really kiss my ass. I really don’t care. There’s a bunch of true fans and the people who actually want to take the time to get to know me know who I am. The guy who sits in his mom’s basement and types on his mom’s computer, I couldn’t really care less about." - Chipper Jones
not if he doesn't make the team...
lol
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Mar 13, 2011 4:28 AM EST up reply actions
I messed up
I knew Mather wasn’t hitting well, but for some reason when I glanced at the stats I obviously misread them and forgot what I already knew, which is that he hasn’t been very good so far.
Still, I stand behind my reasoning. Mather will be on the team, Lucas should make it over Hernandez and the last spot can either go to Brooks Conrad because the Braves just like him, or it will go to Matt Young who will provide us depth at centerfield and a pinch running option when we’re behind by a run or two late in a game.
I agree with you completely. Just, Mather isn’t hitting well at all. lol
This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT
by justincredubil02 on Mar 13, 2011 12:46 AM EST up reply actions
Who?
I know not of who you speak.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Mar 14, 2011 5:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I think you hit the bench correctly.
The other thing making your post accurate is that Mather doesn’t have options, Conrad does. We can’t send Mather down; we’ll lose him on waivers if we do.
How would that waiver work?...
Would a team have to stick him on their 25 man or 40 man and be allowed to send him down? I’m thinking it’s 25 man, which is possible but not nearly as likely as if they can stick him on the 40 man and send him to AAA.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 13, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Think it's got to be 25-man...
Or else he’d immediately be put back on waivers to go to the 40-man for the new team as well.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Mar 13, 2011 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Constanza looks like a base stealing threat as well...
if he can ever get on. That being said, he fits the same need you put Matt Young in for, but I think Constanza is even faster. The only difference is that Matt Young has worked so hard for this “promotion” and has been in the organization whereas Constanza is new…
Nice Post!
I don’t have a favorite between Lucas and Hernandez, but they both seem like capable back up shortstop options. I do like Lucas’s defensive (albeit so-so), versatility.
I hope Matt Young makes it too.
Lady: What?!? How did HE get to Heaven?
GOD: Oh, he was in a different area code, so technically it wasn't cheating..
How about Wilkin Ramirez or Brent Cleleven instead of Mather?
I’m not giving up on Mather yet- he should be given every opportunity to find his groove until opening day, but you gotta be looking at others now too.
But part of Mather’s value is that he can be a right handed backup for Freeman at first base, and neither of Ramirez or Clevlen plays first base at all. If one of those two were on the team, they’d have to take Young’s spot on the bench.
Another option
Prado @ 1st, Ramirez/Clevelen in LF to sub out Freeman. If/When Chipper is hurt, we can always put Lucas there for a few innings. After that, we can dip into the Minors for a guy if we need a longer term replacement.
I’m sure that Young was supposed to be the big surprise, but to me, it’s Mather…
AAA in Gwinnett
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 13, 2011 10:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Two thoughts...
1) I wish Conrad would work in the OF some. As a bench player at best, it’d behoove him to add a little positional versatility and get some time in RF and LF, if not CF, to add to his limited ability to play 2B or 3B.
and 2) Am I the only one who thinks of Hinske as a 1B only? He can “play” in LF, but he’s pretty immobile, and is the last player on that bench, aside from maybe Ross, I’d want to see out there. He’s not Adam Dunn out there, but he’s not too much better imo and would possibly challenge his ineptitude, if not just a FUGA or Carlos Lee level of ineptitude, if forced to play LF for a month or two.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
Hinske's bad in LF,
but he’s not THAT bad. As long as we’re not relying on him to play every day out there, it’ll be fine. He played LF for “a month or two” last year, and was certainly better than FUGA or Carlos Lee—on defense and especially on offense. And in LF, offense is the most important factor.
Hopefully, everyone stays healthy, though, and Hinske doesn’t have to get more than 20-30 starts in the field.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Mar 13, 2011 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
i think of Hinske almost exactly like i lthink of 2008 Greg Norton…I want hiim getting ABs to stay sharp, occasional starts, but if he is starting anywhere for a particularly long period of time… we are S.O.L. nothing against Hinske, its just he isn’t an everyday starter to me.
Defensively I feel the same too. and if you remember Norton spent a bit too much time in LF in 2008.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
I believe the team thinks
that Mather can play CF. I don’t know if he actually can play it all that well, but I don’t think they will go with Matt Young for that reason. I think it’s much more likely we see Conrad on the team, given that he’s a switch hitter who has at least shown the ability to slug at the MLB level. I do think Lucas has a good chance of beating out Diory, though.
If I had my druthers, I’d probably go with Ross/Hinske/Lucas/Conrad/Young, with the option that if Conrad continues to stink it up into the season, we can switch him and Mather out. I think I’m the only one who doesn’t see much of anything in Joe Mather… he’s alright, I guess, but he’s basically Brooks Conrad, except that he plays the OF and doesn’t switch-hit. If it comes down to Mather vs. Conrad, I’d have to give Brooks another chance at it based on past experience. And I definitely prefer giving Matt Young a shot to either Conrad or Mather.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Mar 13, 2011 12:30 PM EDT reply actions
With regards to Mather
in CF — do you think it’s more likely that he is kept so he can play RF with JHey in CF?
Also, if we dump Mather, isn’t it likely that he gets picked up on waivers by another team (I thought he was out of options)?
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
Wilkin Ramirez has definitely impressed me
He has power and speed, his one knock on his career is he cant hit the breaking ball (chipper called him pedro cirano lol) but today he hit a slider out in dead center. this spring he has a 421 average with 3 sb, a homer, a triple and 8 base hits striking out and walking once respectively. he can play all 3 outfield spots as well.. might be a good thought for a callup if he doesnt make the team and someone is needed on the bench, what do u think andy? (gilley)
I honestly don’t know much about him, so my ignorance is what led me to ignore him when looking at who should be on the bench. You clearly more familiar with his talents, and based on his numbers and what you’ve said about him, he seems like a great fit. Putting him on the bench sounds like a good idea to me.
He's a former blue-chip talent...
Was ranked the fifth, sixth, and eighth-best prospect in the Tigers organization by Baseball America (most recent was 8th in 2010).He came up in ’09 and killed it in a SSS. Played on the World Team in the All-Star Futures game twice, according to his wiki.
He has the pedigree, but the inability to hit breaking pitches has held him up (as someone previously mentioned), most recently with a poor showing in 2010 that led to his being waived.
It sounds like he’d be a great addition if he can learn to hit a curveball…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Mar 13, 2011 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Good option, but most believe.....
Wilkin Ramirez=Pedro Cerrano.
by RazorbackBrave80 on Mar 14, 2011 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions
I know it’s already been said before, but I want….
Ross, Hinske, Young, Ramirez and Lucas.
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Mar 13, 2011 7:32 PM EDT reply actions
This x a Billion.
Matt Young has been playing the whole outfield and even some infield. He can pitch run, be called upon to get a hit and is solid defensively.
Ramirez has the highest potential out of anyone. Things might have finally clicked in his head. He can play all outfield positions, has power and speed. He should make it over Mather even though Mather can play 3B and 1B.
Lucas makes it cause he is extremely versatile and has racked in the spring. He is our new Imhotep
by PhuckthePhillies on Mar 14, 2011 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Mather will probably get a spot out of ST, but I’m not convinced he’ll keep it. Ramirez seems to be the guy that might start in AAA and work his way up later this year Historically, he has a very bad BB/K ratio, but if he is improving vs breaking balls, as seen in the 2nd half of 2010, winter ball and ST, he might be the LF we need when Prado comes in to play 3rd. Both Mather and Ramirez are RH batters, Mather has the front office on his side right now. Ramirez is only 25, I think he might get a chance later this season if he continues to improve.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
Our Bench Should look like
Ross
Hinske
Mather
Lucas
Young
Conrad
It won’t look like that, of course, but it should.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
So you'd carry only 11 pitchers, interesting,...
and with the right starters who can regularly go 6-7+, I think it works fine.
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 14, 2011 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think that the team would be fine with 11 pitchers, (which we basically did for a month or so last season when KK was sent to rot in the bullpen) and that the extra bat on the bench would benefit the team more.
Especially since the 6 relievers we do have are all strong options. We’re not in a situation where we’ve already got a couple of unreliable scrubs in our ’pen so we need quantity to make up for a lack of quality.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
It would be tough to pick a 6 man pen. Kimbrel, Venters, Moylan, EOF, Linebrink and Sherrill are locks for a 7 man pen, but we need a long reliever too. Assuming Kimbrel and Venters are 8th and 9th inning guys, which million dollar reliever do you send to AAA?
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
It’s very likely that were not going to carry a traditional spot-starter/“long reliever” type anyway as Proctor probably has the inside track for the last spot in the ‘pen. So that’s who I’d drop to give Conrad a bench spot.
Besides, we’ve got Mather, he’s good for 2 innings if we need it.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
If Proctor and Mather are pitching with the big club, we are in deep shit. We need somebody that can go 4 innings if for no other reason than long rain delays early in the game. Starter injuries and ineffective days too. Fredi’s no fool, surely he’ll have Martinez in the pen.
"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G
We’ve got 6 ML pitchers sitting in the bullpen, surely on any given day 2 of those middle relievers are capable of giving you 2-3 innings each to bridge the way to the regular late inning guys.
Worst case scenario you send the next day’s starter out there, after the game you can call up Beach, Lopez, KK, or whoever from the minors to step in for a start.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
If Fredi manages his pen like Bobby
The last person in the pen doesnt play much anyway.
"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"
"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."
I gotta go with Conrad.
He is a proven clutch pinch hitter
by WelcomeToTheShow!!! on Mar 16, 2011 4:55 PM EDT reply actions
i wanted to do this, but decided it was too corny….
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
C David Ross
OF/1B Eric Hinske
SS/2B Edward Salcedo
IF Brooks Conrad
OF/1B Joe Mather
on July 31:
C David Ross
OF/1B Eric Hinske
IF Wilson Betemit
OF/1b Joe Mather
SS/2b Edward Salcedo
May opinion never overcome facts as well as sense and logic, but be there to show people what you think and feel in your mind and body.
Salcedo won't be on the roster...
for at least 2-3 years, if not longer. He’s far from ready, and will start the year back in Rome I’d assume (low A ball).
http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 20, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Just kidding...
…Here’s what I really think:
David Ross C
Eric Hinske OF/1B
Joe Mather OF/1B
Jordan Schafer OF
Brooks Conrad IF
You know, this would be a lot easier if we still had Omar. He has basically covered two of five spots on the bench by being capable as an infielder and all 3 outfield positions.
May opinion never overcome facts as well as sense and logic, but be there to show people what you think and feel in your mind and body.
I’ve always wondered, could we have gotten Uggla by trading some young talent. (in addition to Mike Dunn), like maybe some Bish or Cish pitchers like Tim Gustafson???
May opinion never overcome facts as well as sense and logic, but be there to show people what you think and feel in your mind and body.
We also could have Gregor Blanco still here. That trade was virtually worthless for us. They still have Tim Collins, Jesse Chavez, and Gregor Blanco. We have neither Ankiel nor Farnsworth still here. This is what it could have been:
David Ross C
Eric Hinske OF/1B
Joe Mather OF/1B
Omar Infante ET (EveryThing)
Gregor Blanco OF
May opinion never overcome facts as well as sense and logic, but be there to show people what you think and feel in your mind and body.
Yeah it was.
But Ankiel had only 2 high points when he was with us. That home run in Game 2, and the triple to win the game on the last pitch against Carlos Marmol and the Cubs.
May opinion never overcome facts as well as sense and logic, but be there to show people what you think and feel in your mind and body.

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