Martin Prado: Atlanta Braves 2011 Player Preview

by gondeee on Mar 10, 2011 9:00 AM EST in Community Projections

Today we preview one of the most understated players on the Atlanta Braves, Martin Prado. He was never really a prospect, but he played his way onto the team, earned the respect of his manager and his teammates, and won a starting job, becoming an All-Star in his first full season as a regular player. Now he moves from the infield to the outfield, just another unselfish act for this humble baseball player.

Prado is amazingly consistent. His career average is .307. In 2009 he hit .307. In 2010 he hit .307. Seems pretty cut and dry that he's a .307 hitter.

Will the move to the outfield make him think he needs to be more of a power hitter? He's still hitting leadoff, so perhaps it won't change him in that regard, but it will be something to keep an eye on.

Click here for an introduction to our Fan Projections Player Preview series.

>>> Click here to fill out the Google Form for Martin Prado's 2011 projections. Your answers can also be posted in the comments section for discussion, but will only be tallied if they are entered in the Google Form.

Martin Prado's Baseball Reference comparable players by age (1000 equals most comparable). This list is full of players who had a small range of peak years. It will be interesting to see what kind of comps Prado gets if he continues to put up good numbers. Interesting seeing Kelly on there.

Lew Fonseca (958)
Jeff Cirillo (943)
Kevin Seitzer (938)
Bill Barrett (936)
Cliff Lee (936)
Garrett Atkins (935)
Dave Nilsson (934)
Odell Hale (934)
Kelly Johnson (934)
Todd Walker (932)

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Comments

He's

Comparable to Cliff Lee? So conceivably he could win a batting title and a Cy Young?

I say .329 avg .393 obp 16 hr

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 10, 2011 9:12 AM EST via mobile reply actions

Different Cliff Lee

The Cliff Lee that nitraM odarP is similar to last played in the 1920s.

But I bet odarP would even pitch if you asked him too. He could probably learn do it pretty well given his work ethic…though I doubt anywhere close to the other Cliff Lee.

by Santaklose11 on Mar 10, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions

Can someone...

Please tell me how Martin is doing in the outfield thus far fielding-wise??

Chicken pot, chicken pot, chicken pot pie!!

by HalleyGator on Mar 10, 2011 9:18 AM EST reply actions

Decent

As far as I know, they say he’s running good routes and covering the gap pretty well, but I haven’t read anything in a few days concerning that subject

"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann

by HansonManCrush on Mar 10, 2011 9:22 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

He’s made some pretty slick sliding/diving plays and does take some pretty good routes from what I’ve seen.

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Mar 10, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions

Didnt he play LF in a foreign league

I dont think he’s learning a new position.

"If I have asthma, they won't let me scuba. And if I can’t scuba, then what’s this all been about?? What am I working toward??"

"You look like you should be married to one of the San Diego Padres."

by Doghnut on Mar 10, 2011 10:49 AM EST up reply actions

He played all over the field in that league. Not enough in LF to say he had a full grasp of the position, but he does at least have the experience.

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Mar 10, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions

Yes, Bobby said...

he was, I think a RF, when he’d play in winter leagues back hom.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 10, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions

He's solid...

and an improvement over what we’ve had out there for a while now.

http://sportsandgrits.blogspot.com/

by Mr. Sanchez on Mar 10, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions

.315/.345/17hr

Admired as a saint. Defined by my rank. Combined with my strength. My time and my length.

by ArmyITSpec on Mar 10, 2011 9:24 AM EST reply actions

.311/.359/.475 18HR

by Broccoman on Mar 10, 2011 9:36 AM EST reply actions

.999/1.437/63

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Mar 10, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs

I like me some Prado

I appreciate his hard work and willingness to sacrifice for the team. Baseball needs more guys like him, and I hope he slays it this year.

I am bi-winning. I win not only here but also there.

by Jman781 on Mar 10, 2011 9:44 AM EST reply actions

.308 (I figure he’s due for a change)
.365
15 HR

"It's like winning a war...you need arms and money." Fredi G

by bighop on Mar 10, 2011 10:32 AM EST reply actions

Martin is a critical part of this offense. I hope he stays healthy all year!

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Mar 10, 2011 10:40 AM EST reply actions

My respect for this guy continues to grow.

Watched him in the batting tunnels on Tuesday. He continues to put in the blue collar effort to improve his game. He worked the right field line with his bat against the Yankees and always seemed to have a good idea of what he was doing at the plate. Doubled to the gap off of Brackman for the Braves’ hardest hit ball of the day.

He also came out of his workout signing autographs for about 50 kids before the game started, really going out of his way. It was a stark contrast to Jordan Schafer, who was working in the tunnels at the same time.

by parish on Mar 10, 2011 10:56 AM EST reply actions

He was on 790 the Zone the morning and he was talking about how he really was grinding it out in the minors and simply thanked the organization for believing in him. Thank you Martin, thank you.

A baseball game is simply a nervous breakdown divided into nine innings.
~Earl Wilson

by BeantownVol on Mar 10, 2011 11:04 AM EST reply actions

YES

GSO

"I'd rather jerk off a tiger in a phone booth than draft Cam"
-Mel Kiper, Jr.

by MikeTrain on Mar 10, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions

Martin is hands down my favorite brave. I honestly thought guys like him didn’t exist anymore in the midst of all these players wanting 10+ mil and not even working hard to earn it

ESPN can give the Philthies all the verbal BJs they want, Braves will still clinch the east!

by suicide bunting is a sin on Mar 10, 2011 11:07 AM EST reply actions

Who wouldn’t want $10mil+ without working hard to earn it?

If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02

by king of games on Mar 10, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Just wait until he is a F/A – he’ll want to get paid.

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Mar 10, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

I'm actually concerned about Martin this year

His BB% has gone down over three consecutive years from 8.3% (a very good place for him to be) down to 7.2%, down to 6.1%. He hi .307 last year, and I’d like to see his OBP higher than .350 when he’s hitting that well. It worked for him, but he seems to be showing a lack of patience this spring. He’s a guy that’s going to be high in the batting order all year for us, and I’d hate for his ability to get on base to entirely driven by batting average.

And his average has always been BABIP driven, too. .357 in 2008, .331 in 2009, and .335 in 2010. I’d just hate for him to experience a slump caused by a stretch of bad luck or something and then we lose the ability to get our lead-off man on base. With is having to convert to a full time outfield position, it could have a deleterious effect on his hitting. At least, it did have that effect on Chipper Jones, over time.

by Bronn on Mar 10, 2011 11:42 AM EST reply actions

I have the same concerns

about the walk rate, anyway. I projected that he’d get it back to his 2009 levels, anyway, but that’s mostly just wishful thinking. A 6% walk rate is passable when he’s hitting .307 with decent power, but if either of those other things falls off, he’d have to walk more to compensate. And if the walk rate gets lower, his value could fall off a cliff really fast.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 10, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions

by the way

anyone else amused by Kelly Johnson’s name on that list?

by Bronn on Mar 10, 2011 11:49 AM EST reply actions

This guy wants to suck all the cubs dick can he not have an unbias some what partition reguards
by RWH2 on Apr 5, 2010 10:20 AM CDT

by justincredubil02 on Mar 10, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions

I think I'm more amused...

…by Cliff Lee’s name being on that list!

by FlyDeltaJets on Mar 10, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions

I'm thinking

.300 / .350 / .430 (12 HR)

A slight dip in power, since by all accounts he’s leaner this season, compensated for with a slightly higher walk rate. These numbers wouldn’t be All-Star quality, especially in LF, but they would be just fine for a leadoff guy.

I hope he can do better, of course… but I fear that he’ll do worse. He seems due for a bad-luck BABIP year and his walk rate last year was pretty poor. Perhaps these are illogical fears, but they mitigated by projection.

"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson

by Jacob Peterson on Mar 10, 2011 12:05 PM EST reply actions

.305 avg.
.360 OBP
15 HR

http://tonyalmeyda.blogspot.com/

by TonyAlmeyda on Mar 10, 2011 2:19 PM EST reply actions

Love me some Prado. That’s my boy!

.302
.365
16 HR

by Sparhawk on Mar 10, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions

Dear TC editors,

This is my first whole year on TC so we might already do this but, do you think before the season starts we can see all of the TC community’s average predictions for all of the players? I think it’d be cool to see the final, overall predictions for everyone before the season starts

"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia

by Daff11 on Mar 10, 2011 7:18 PM EST via mobile reply actions