Your Projections Will Be Wrong (But Make Them Anyway)
by Jacob Peterson on Feb 16, 2011 9:49 PM EST
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PrintSince we at Talking Chop have now started projecting the 2011 performance of the Braves' rotation, I thought it would be enlightening to look back at the starting pitcher projections that the TC community made last year.
I encourage all of you to go to that link and review the comments quickly, especially if you are one of the people who made a projection. It's a bit scarring to see just how comically wrong some of us were--including me. Sure, I pegged Derek Lowe's final ERA exactly and came very close to predicting both Lowe's and Tim Hudson's final W-L records; I also came pretty close to nailing the strikeout totals for Tommy Hanson and Hudson... but boy, did I miss on a few other projections.
For instance, I had Hanson's W-L mark at 18-10, Kawakami's at 12-10, and Jurrjens' at 15-9; that's 45-29 combined. They actually went 18-27. Sure, wins and losses are a crapshoot. In fact, the only person who even came close to the top 5 starters' actual combined W-L record (51-48) was PWHjort, who used a random number generator to guess a combined 54-52. I was nearly as bad at projecting ERA, though, which should be a relatively straightforward task: I had JJ's era at 3.30 and KK's at 3.80 (they ended up at 4.64 and 4.85, respectively).
And here's the really crazy thing: by the standards of the TC populace, my projections were fairly conservative.
Now, some of you may be expecting me, after all of that, to bemoan the pointlessness of projections and the rose-tinted optimism of home-team fans. I won't do that, though. Projections will inevitably be wrong, but they aren't pointless--even when they're incredibly misguided. Similarly, fervent optimism can be useful, as long as the person wielding it is aware that he or she isn't fully objective.
Projections, first of all, are a fun exercise; fun has real value. Secondly, they get us thinking in a concrete way about what we expect for the future. For some of us, making these projections will lead to more in-depth thinking about these or other players, which can in turn lead to all sorts of interesting discoveries.
The most valuable part of projections comes not from projection itself, but from retrospection. By looking back at last year's projections, we can identify certain trends, and then attempt to explain why these trends exist. For instance, everyone vastly overestimated the Braves' initial rotation... but you know what? They were still one of the better rotations in the league for much of the year, and were good enough to get us to the playoffs. In other words, even when things don't go according to plan, they can still work out just as well if the people in charge know what they are doing. That should be comforting to all of us when the Braves hit their first rough patch of 2011 (which is inevitable).
Something else to keep in mind is when to bring out the rose-tinted glasses and when to leave them in the drawer. Every season brings with it overachievers and breakout stars (last year these included Hudson, Omar Infante, Jonny Venters, and Martin Prado) as well as underachievers and catastrophic failures (Jurrjens, Kawakami, Nate McLouth, Melky Cabrera). I think it would behoove all of us to pick a few breakout/rebound candidates each year; for these guys, don't be afraid to let your homerism hold sway. Sometimes, home team fans actually do see something in a player that impartial fans don't. Familiarity can lead to bias, but it can also lead to insight. The trick, of course, is to figure out which is which--but we'll never solve that problem if we don't try.
The flip side of this coin is that it would be a good idea for all of us to pick a few downside candidates as well. You will probably be wrong, but it's a good idea to at least think about what might make players have down years. It won't make you a bad fan or a hater (at least, as long as you have some reason why you pick a player other than "I hate the way he wears his hat" or something like that). Something--many things, really--will go wrong in 2011, even if the Braves win the World Series. Just think of a low projection as the obstacle that you think the Braves will overcome on the way to a glorious end.
What do you guys think?
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Two Up, Two Down
Two Up: Prado (in terms of productivity at the plate, or wOBA)
Mather (I think he’ll eventually play well enough to earn the starting job)
Two Down: Hudson (I just can’t ignore some of the D “Independent” PS (DIPS) outliers)
Venters (I expect we’ll see quite a regression from him, or significant injury)
Like those
The down especially…Huddy ended up producing the same WAR as lows last year I believe. Also, Bobby was the Dusty Baker of relievers.
by granman29 on Feb 16, 2011 10:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hate to agree
but I think Venters is going to miss time this season because of his ridiculous workload last year. Thanks Bobby! Too bad we traded Tim Collins.
I think it’s time for another installment of “Tidbits”, complete with poll.
Morgan: Do you think I could come into the clubhouse after the game and display my ass for both those veterans and the younger guys?
Baker: Well, Joe, you are on the payroll of the team, and you're a legend, so I suppose — holy shit!
[Joe has appeared next to Dusty, in the dugout, completely naked]
Morgan: Hey.
I predict Freeman will hit a homerun in the first game of 2011
And Heyward will be top 10 in homers at the all-star break and subsequently be in the homerun derby and win.
I'm all jacked up on Mountain Dew
So what your trying to say is..
Heyward won’t his .330 this year with 40 homeruns? BLASPHEME!
No
That’s not what I’m saying at all. (I do think those numbers are a bit much, but that’s not the point.)
But if the TC consensus were that he’d hit .330 with 40 HRs, I would find that interesting… If there’s anyone to get carried away over, it would actually make sense to do it for a guy who is clearly so talented. If you really think he’ll be MVP or some such, go for it… Just be sure to also think about who the LVP might be.
I wonder if anyone here is ballsy enough to predict a somewhat down season for J-Hey?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Feb 17, 2011 1:04 AM EST up reply actions
No way...
J-Hey knows how to draw walks, he knows how to hit it to the opposite field, he covers so much of the plate with his physical size and quickness, and has the speed to steal a few bases or take a second or third base against a lazy outfielder.
If anything, hitting in the #6 hole will increase his ability to hit for power and drive in runs…it wouldn’t be a huge shock for him to approach 1.000 OPS…with 25-30 HR and 100-105 RBIs.
Ups and Downs
Up: JJ- He’ll get rid of all the critisism about him with a solid year like the first ones he had with us, and I was happy to read that post the other day saying he cut some weight and started working out a little more seriously
Up: AGon- I liked what i saw from him at Toronto with all those homers. I know they were a HR happy team last year but i think Gonzalez will surprise some people with his HR tally this year. ( Istill think his average will be .250 range though)
Up: McClouth- Whatever he was smoking last year has to be out of his system by now and he’ll hopefully return to somewhere near his old Pirate form
Down: Sherrill/Linebrink- One of em is going to be a bust (Probebly Linebrink though)
Down: Hudson- Would love for him to, but it’s gonna be tough to repeat what he did last year
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
Mike Stanton
Will hit 100 HOME RUNS!!!!
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Feb 16, 2011 11:24 PM EST reply actions
Funny quote...
from a Fangraphs chat, I believe. I’ll paraphrase, in light of the lazy journalistic standards here at Talking Chop.
Question: Mike Stanton, which is higher, batting average or strikeouts??
Answer: It’s funny that this question can even be asked in good faith, but it actually works for Stanton. I think it will be average, by a little.
Struck out in almost 35% of his plate appearances last season…and his minor league stats show very similar tendencies in that respect.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Feb 17, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions
Greg Norton will get a hit.
Go USA, Braves, BU Terriers, Irish, Caps, Colts, Hoyas, NU Cats, Wizards, DC United, Washington Freedom
BU Hockey: National Champions 1971, 1972, 1978, 1995, 2009
Ha yea, thats a good one
"The Dos Equis guys want me to be the least interesting man in the world" - Drama
by BravesDawg16 on Feb 17, 2011 2:45 AM EST up reply actions
For the record, since I didn't mention my choices in the post,
since I’m trying to break some thought patterns, I’m going to go with mostly people I haven’t seen mentioned much.
Up— McCann (assuming no eye problems, I think he gets MVP votes)
Up— Jurrjens (relatively speaking; ERA in the low to mid 3s)
Down— Uggla (he’ll still be good, but I think he has a hard time repeating last year… and his defense will still be bad; I think a lot of folks expect too much from him)
Down— the closers (I worry about Venters’ durability and Kimbrel’s control… I think we see someone else get some save opps at some point, though I think Kimbrel gets straightened out eventually and reclaims it)
I picked a 3.20 ERA for Hudson, but that’s not a “Down” to me. That’s almost an “Up,” given his career numbers.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Feb 17, 2011 12:58 AM EST reply actions
UP:
- Nate McLouth will return to All-Star form.
- Jair Jurrjens will win 20.
- Craig Kimbrel saves 40 and wins NL Cy Young Award.
- Joe Mather becomes Infante 2.0.
DOWN:
- Scott Proctor struggles with a 6.00+ ERA and is cut before the end of April.
- Jonny Venters will regress slightly and not be as effective as in 2010.
http://tonyalmeyda.blogspot.com/
I'm underwhelmed by your "DOWNS"
a “regress slightly” and a reliever having a bad year? Why not pick at least one down year that would actually be surprising to someone?
Also, Kimbrel winning CY? I hope you mean ROY.
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Feb 17, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
You want a surprising down year? Here’s one:
Freddie Freeman struggles to hit .200 for about two months before being sent down to Gwinnett.
And why not Kimbrel winning a Cy Young? The title of the post says our projections will be wrong anyway. By the way, I originally said Kimbrel would win ROY, but I figured Kimbrel could be dominant enough to win the Cy.
http://tonyalmeyda.blogspot.com/
I’m in the small majority who wouldn’t be overly surprised by that. I’ve always been very nervous about his offense.
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Freeman is a good down candidate compared to what many expect. If he slugs over .400, it’ll be a great surprise to me. I can’t find anyone willing to discuss his swing mechanics, plenty willing to discuss his ISO but no one wants to talk about how he uses his lower half in his swing.
"It's going to be strange watching There's Something About Mary again, knowing Brett Favre was the biggest stalker of them all"
tim hudson 18-7, 3.10
dan uggla .265, 30 HR, 95RBI
jason heyward .290, 21 HR, 78RBI
Fun exercise...
Up:
McLouth – How can he do anything but go up? Honestly, I think he returns on the investment we made in him and returns to his Pirates “all-star” status.
Freeman – A lot is expected of this kid… but I think a 20 hr, .270 avg, 90 RBI season is within reach… He will be the Yang to Heywards Yin.
Kawakami… ok, I can’t say that with a straight face… but I do believe Hanson will have a special year and get in the Cy Young talk.
Bullpen – As a whole, FW builds a solid staff… Linebrink and Sherril are the veteran presence we lost with Saito and Wagner leaving. They will anchor a young and dominant bullpen. Kimbrel and Everyday Johnny will be used in my least favorite platoon but it will be effective and I like how Freddie uses his pen.
Down –
Jones – He is my favorite player of all time… It is heartbreaking to watch him continue to perform at such a high level for such a short period of time. His body just won’t let him perform (I pray I am wrong)
Prado – Fish out of water in LF. His average will go down and he may revert to KJ frustration levels… I hate to believe this about him but I just don’t see him performing at the plate the way we need from the corner OF position… He will be solid but not great.
Hudson – Pitched more last year than any year since his injury. He’s not getting younger and while I hope he is the anchor of our staff… the injury risk scares me.
I hate having to pick the downs but that’s my honest opinion. Let’s hope i’m wrong about the bottom half and right about the top. :-D
I hear that new guy at 2B
performs at the plate the way we need a corner OF to perform. Martin is your prototypical #2 hole hitter.
THIS
I wish we could have brough Uggla in and talked him into staying out in LF… Prado at 2B with the lineup looking something like this… (I know this isn’t the forum but since it was mentioned)… Caveot, this is the line up as I would make it if I were Freddie. Blast me if you wish.
1. McLouth
2. Prado
3. Heyward
4. Uggla
5. BMac
6. Chipper
7. Freeman
8. A Gonz
McLouth is a .270 avg .360 OBP guy in the 1 hole… He’s ok in that spot. not ideal.. but would make the lineup work really well. That is my opinion. I love Chipper but w/ him in the 6 hole, I see massive production in RBIs. Am I insane to see this as our lineup?
by Klemson Krash on Feb 17, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
hmmm
Up:
McLouth – only cause it can’t get worse, right?
Jurrjens – not by a ton, but he’s a good pitcher. Not great, but good. He’s going to realize that the Braves will not give Boras the contract he’ll want for Jurrjens, and thus he must pitch like a future free agent. He’ll be working hard to pitch well the next couple of years.
Lowe – He finished the season well, looked really good after some mechanical changes. I think he’ll have better numbers. Remember, he used to be a very good, if not dominant, pitcher.
Heyward – Easy one. Will have better numbers than last season. I think we could see some sweet numbers.
McCann – If he ever gets his eyes fixed…
Down:
Uggla, but Up: 2nd base/3rd base/LF production. Uggla/Chipper/Prado, awesome.
AGon – HR had to due with whatever was going on in the water in Toronto last season. If he hits 18 I’d be very, very surprised. He has to to keep up some of his value. He’ll probably hit 7th/8th whole season and rightfully so, but he’s cheap.
Win/Loss records – Let’s never, never predict nor even discuss win-loss records again. They’re as relevant as the Whig political party. No matter how hard ESPN tries, please let’s let it die.
Excited about the new season! Go Braves!
Totally agree about W-L, worst stat in sports,
"It happens to everybody, man. He's had 60 at-bats. A couple of years ago, I had 60 at-bats, and I was hitting .170, and everyone was ready to kill me, too. And what happened? Laser show." - Dustin Pedroia
Really??
Worse than the quality start stat? Worse than the QB rating?
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 11:09 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, easily.
QS at least measures a pitcher’s performance, however imprecisely. Wins and Losses have only, what, 50% to do with the pitcher? At most?
"Yeah, and I have an enchanted jock strap." -- Karl Karlson
by Jacob Peterson on Feb 17, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
please.
The quality start stat is a bit of a joke. 6 innings, and 4 runs? I could see 6, 3 being a legitimate quality start, but the stat as it is currently constructed needs serious revision. And I’m assuming since you didn’t touch the QB Rating that we share an equal distaste for it?
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
Ummm...
It is 6IP and 3 ER…QS shows at least something of a pitcher’s performance. W-L shows absolutely nothing.
I am not arguing W-L
I just think there are a few other “worst stats in sports”
My mistake though, I thought it was 6 and 4, perhaps cause the basic ERA there is a 4.50
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I agree
That the merits of QS are stupid.
I do use QS in fantasy baseball instead of W because QS at least uses something related to the pitcher’s performance.
QS is a useful statistic in the proper context but if your quick to take the “quality” part literally, then problems arise. But it does measure consistently keeping the team in the game, giving a better idea as to the skew of the statistical sample.
"It's going to be strange watching There's Something About Mary again, knowing Brett Favre was the biggest stalker of them all"
I just hate when broadcasters or fans say something like “He had 20 quality starts” like its something to be ridiculously proud of. When they say that all I hear is “He got 20 C’s on his report card”
Momma ain’t stickin’ that on the fridge.
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
she should
We need to start hearing “King Felix led the league with 26 QS” and thinking “That’s awesome” versus not having a clue about it and hearing “So and so had 20 wins” and thinking “That’s awesome” and realizing it was Jon Garland. Again, have to let it go and let something else because awesome for a pitcher instead of the arbitrary “win.”
again, I am not arguing wins is a good stat.
I’m just saying I don’t like the quality start stat. There are lots of other good stats to judge a pitcher by than that.
by thenightstallion on Feb 18, 2011 12:12 AM EST up reply actions
UP
McCann-lost weight, better eyes, better lineup = less pressing, might have his best year yet
McLouth-Nowhere to go but up, Chipper got him thinking right, better than career avg year
Schafer-Proves himself back to form, winds up spending most of the year in MLB, possibly replacing Prado who moves full time to the infield.
DOWN
Venters-repeating 2010 would make him legendar
Chipper-Breaks my heart, but I think he will struggle with the knee and not finish the season.
Free Matt Young!
Up
McCann
Chipper
Prado
Down
Heyward (No more than 20-25 homers, .285 avg, 70 RBIs, .380 OBP. I realize these aren’t “down” numbers, but they are down compared to what most people think he’ll have.)
Hudson
by thenightstallion on Feb 17, 2011 12:28 PM EST reply actions
Up:
Mike Minor- underperformed components, should make a run at the ROY award
Down:
Tim Hudson- outperformed components
Jonny Venters- abuse he absorbed last season will catch up to him and he’ll have a TJ surgery scheduled by July.
"It's going to be strange watching There's Something About Mary again, knowing Brett Favre was the biggest stalker of them all"
Up:
Hanson—continues to improve
Heyward—a full season of the pre-thumb injury Heyward
Chipper—because he’s Chipper
Mac—numbers will be better without pressure of having to carry the load offensively
JJ—2009 JJ
Nate—because a negative batting average isn’t possible
Down:
Huddy—he’ll be good but quite as awesome as last season
Venters—will still be good but league will catch up to him a little
AGon—won’t have half a season in Toronto to skew the stats
KK—won’t make a start for ATL
Brooks Conrad—because the Braves will be too dominant for late inning heroics in 2011
Gut Feeling
Been a Braves/basball man for over 40 yrs. I feel like I have some idea on what it takes to create a winning team. And this year, not only do my eyes tell me something special is about to happen, my gut is telling me it as well. I believe that last year if either Chipper and or Pardo would have been healthy, the Braves would have defeated the Giants in the playoffs. This staff is very solid, JJ is healthy and these kids are really strong. Last year in spring trng I got to see Kimbrel and a few other kids throw and knew they were special. Now there a year older. Heyward will do nothing but improve and the pressure on Freeman is less than on JHey. With Uggla in this lineup it too is potent. PPL, I am telling you, don’t be suprised if the Braves win the East. Yea, I know all about Philly and their staff. But one thing I also understand, these Braves are HUNGRY. Spring training again in a few weeks, if you’ve never been you need to go. What a great experience it is!
Like you, I’ve been a Braves fan for 40+ years. I agree with what you are saying. Hinske put me over the top today, saying he wanted to come back because the club was special. I’m worried about Chipper, other than that I think this team is ready to do something. If he’s as good as he says, the Phillies are in for a race.
Free Matt Young!
The Braves would have won
if a certain 2nd baseman didn’t let a ground ball go through his legs (and drop a few fly balls). I was there. Utter pain.
Let it go already!
The guy was third string and without his clutch hits in the regular season, Braves never woulda even been in the playoffs. The Buster Posey “stolen base” was just as damaging if you look at the big picture.
You heard it here 1st...
Up -
McCann- breakout year now that the pressure of being in the 4 hole is off of him. His def will be better too
Hanson- breakout year and officially earns the title ‘ace’
McLouth- gets his MOJO back!!! Solid year at the plate from him.
Jurrjens: shines bright and lasts the whole year long
Static -
AGon: both decent and cheap
Chipper: rakes offensively….sucks defensively. Secretly wishes NL had the DL
Uggla: puts up his standard offensive numbers…and slightly improved in defense
Venters: not nearly as good as last year but still a STUD
Hudson: provides tons of quality innings and stays healthy
Lowe: up and down year….will break out again when we need him most!
Prado: solid player no matter what position
Heyward: superman goes thru a bit of a sophmore slump around mid-season and misses MVP. Wins MVP the following 3 years tho
Minor: decent #5 starter but has alot of ups and downs
rest of bullpen: lots of ups and downs but still relatively solid
Down -
Freeman: pressure of being the 2nd coming of heyward too much and his mechanical flaws show. 1st base remains a BIG hole for this team
Kimbrel: injury bug gets him
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