The Inevitable Rumor Shoot-Down
by gondeee on Dec 5, 2011 9:20 PM EST
in Braves Trade News
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PrintIn my previous post I passed along a report from Jon Heyman that the Reds were very interested in Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens. Cincy beat writer Mark Sheldon checked his sources and immediately shot that rumor down:
A baseball source familiar with the Reds' situation told MLB.com on Monday that there was no interest on their part to pursue Jurrjens. Another issue is that Atlanta and Cincinnati don't appear to match up well for a trade.
Total buzz kill! This always happens this time of year. They are "rumors" after all. Danny Knobler at CBS Sports keeps our rumor-filled night alive with this follow up to Heyman's tweet:
Braves still talking both Jurrjens and Prado, 8-10 teams in on JJ, even more on Prado
Not hard to figure that when two good players like that under team control for two more years are thought to be on the market, just about every team in baseball will start circling above. Therefore, I expect a TON of rumors for the next couple of days, maybe even some reports of trades that are "close."
Wren is probably feeling out every team with an ounce of interest and seeing what's available. If someone blows him away, he might move quick to accept that offer. Otherwise he'll regroup with his staff and try to figure out the best offer where they can fill their needs and get the highest return. That could take a day, or it could take weeks. They may find that the market will be clearer and more teams desperate to add a starter once Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson are off the market.
Also, that talk from the Braves front office about not shopping Prado or Jurrjens ... that's bonk. This many rumors about the same two players don't just materialize out of nothing.
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Braves will lose 90+ with or without JJ and Prado.
by NickSC11 on Dec 5, 2011 9:54 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I find your astute analysis to be utterly infallible.
Might as well not even watch any games this year.
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
The Atlanta Dream has been to the Finals (but lost) the past two years. GO DREAM!
I feel like SWAT right now..Colin Farrell GET AT ME! GET AT ME! LL Cool J GET AT ME!
by bwellnjonesco on Dec 6, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
Only if they get absolutely nothing in return.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Dec 5, 2011 10:00 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks for the valuable, insightful comment. Now please go away
You won't always agree with me...Because sometimes you're wrong.
by JonnyBravesFan on Dec 5, 2011 10:02 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe if
Braves trade Martin Prado for Yuniesky Bethancourt
Braves trade Jair Jurrjens for beloved son Jo Jo Reyes
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
That would actually be worse than absolutely nothing.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Dec 5, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't lose last night
with your mom…..ooooooooooooooooo :-)
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
Philly Phan....
still butt-hurt that the Big 4 brought about a 1 and done post season…pitching only wins regular season titles. Braves fans know that better than anyone.
All the rumors
might quiet down if Huddy is in fact not ready by opening day. I know Jurrjens isn’t exactly the Mark Buehrle of starting pitchers in terms of durability, but we might need him since our rotation now will be full of injury question marks and a rookie or two.
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
If Huddy's not ready by opening day, he's probably just missing a few starts, from what I've heard.
That’s nothing to be worried about.
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
by duwanis on Dec 5, 2011 10:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You know how many times we’ve heard “he’s probably just missing a few starts” 6-7 years? There’s been a few.
I feel like SWAT right now..Colin Farrell GET AT ME! GET AT ME! LL Cool J GET AT ME!
by bwellnjonesco on Dec 6, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Fair enough
If we’re really going to get into risk analysis, he might get into a car crash tomorrow and not be able to start for us at all.
Based on what I’ve seen/read/heard so far “might miss a few starts” seems a fair analysis. That may change, it may not. Who knows.
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
I don't see any fit here
but did anyone realize Stubbs is already 27? and this Billy Hamilton prospect of theirs had 103 SB in 135 G this year?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
i did notice that Hamilton fellow
what position does he play?
If a guy like that was a +SS, he would instantly be worthy of our 25 man.
A pinch runner that could actually steal second and third,
or a pinch hitter that could bunt for a hit..
He could bat .100 and still be a game maker
And, at this point, he would hit .100 in the majors.
No, he wouldn’t be an asset. He has to learn pitchers’ moves better (pinch-running and getting caught stealing won’t help, and like everything else, pitchers’ moves and catchers’ arms are better in the majors than low A ball) and all the other things young players need to learn to be successful. Same with bunting—-that is a skill, not something that someone with speed can just do automatically. Speed is nice, but it is hardly sufficient to make someone a major league player (the designated runner experiment in the 70’s flopped). It is also probably the most overrated commodity by fans.
BUT IT IS SO MUCH FUN
WHAT DO YOU MEAN IT DOES NOT GUARANTEE US WINZ?
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
Loria is just trying to trick Wren into making bad trades
DFA Heyward. I'm dead serious
by wpf3211 on Aug 6, 2011 9:11 PM EDT
If hitting .100 with blazing speed made one a valuable major leaguer, Willy Taveras would be in the 6th year of his multi-million year deal with the Yankees.
Prado
I’ll preface it by saying that, of the two, I’m least thrilled about trading Prado. With JJ, we’re able to deal from a position of strength. Our starting pitching possibilities are obviously very deep and how many teams can say they would be willing to trade someone like Jurrjens because they have guys that might be better than him not even currently in their projected rotation?
Prado is different. We don’t have a similar beavy of talent in position players. Obviously we’re looking to improve in LF, but soon you’ll need a decent 3B option. The fact that supposedly this many teams have shown interest should be writing on the wall that players like him are valuable. An offer for him better blow away Wren and address needs in LF and long-term needs at 3B.
Trade from a position of power
We have a surplus of pitchers. We do not have a surplus of RH OF/3B players.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Prado’s bat is too light for 3rd (an LF for that matter). He’s a damn good 2nd baseman, but the braves locked up one of those last year. With two above average 2nd basemen, the braves are dealing from a position of strength.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
And there's the fallacy again.
There is no need for a certain type of production at a certain defensive position. Uggla has the power people typically associate with left field. If Prado played second and Uggla played left it would leave the exact same batting lineup as Uggla playing second and Prado playing left.
As for Prado’s bat being simply insufficient (as opposed to not being the right type) for a non-premium defensive position, that is silly. Look at his 2009 and 2010 numbers.
the point is that he has value as a 2nd baseman. If a team is looking for a 2nd baseman, they’re going to look at Prado as one of the best available at that position. If they’re looking at left fielders, you can get prado’s production from an average left fielder. So if someone is willing to give up a premium left field bat for a premium 2nd base bat, the braves improve their offense tremendously.
On your point about Uggla, he would be an above average left field bat, but he’s an elite 2nd base bat. If you swap the two, of course it’s evened out because prado is an above average 2nd base bat and an average to below average left field bat. The answer is that you can leave uggla at 2nd, and even an average LF can give you the same production as Prado, while the trade return would be better than that.
Essentially what I’m saying is that anyone can play left field. It’s among the least demanding positions in baseball. However, not just anyone can play 2nd base. If you can hit like a guy that doesn’t have to worry about defense and defend like a guy that doesn’t have to worry about hitting, that’s a great package. The braves are wasting Prado’s defensive abilities by playing him in left.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
You do realize that Prado missed a month due to injury and basically lost a half-season of normal performance to that same injury, yes?? He still finished with 1.6 WAR despite that, and 2 WAR is a league-average mark.
The interesting thing is that Prado’s defense may be so good in LF, in comparison to his peers, that the defensive adjustment from the two positions may be outweighed by the his defensive caliber in LF. Obviously SSS there. But, if it bears out in the future, he actually provides more value at LF than he does at 2B, because his defense at 2B was quite poor (another SSS).
You really need to start factoring defense into your arguments, because you’re missing a big part of the game if you don’t.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Defensive stats are notoriously unreliable, so I tend to stay away from them. They’re good for getting a gist of what’s going on, but I just don’t like using them. I was just talking from an offensive perspective anyway.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
I’m well aware of the unreliability of defensive stats…doesn’t mean you should just ignore them. Defense is a big part of the game, even if it’s hard to quantity statistically.
You’re still dead-wrong about Prado’s bat being too light for 3B. He’s still league-average at LF.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
It doesn't matter if you get on via a walk or a hit...
…so long as you get on base. (In fact, hits are slightly more valuable.) When Prado was doing his thing in 2009 and 2010, he got on base just fine.
but hits are very dependent on luck (BABIP). When he had an unsustainable BABIP (.338 from 2008-2010), his batting average was high, so his OBP was high. When he was slightly unlucky in 2011 (.266 BABIP), his average and OBP fell sharply, killing his offensive game. A guy with a high walk rate can continue contributing without having to rely on luck.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
His BABIP wasn’t unsustainable at that level. He hit a ton of LDs, which is directly responsible for his BABIP. Again, look at all factors before coming up with false conclusions.
Likewise, he wasn’t really unlucky in 2011, either. His LD% plummeted, most of which can be accounted for by his injury. That’s what led to low BABIP.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Oops...
His BABIP was sustainable at that level.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
his LD% was exactly league average (19%) from 2008-2011, while his BABIP was .338 over that time, higher than the typical league average (.290 to .310, I couldn’t find specific data for those years).
And you are right that his 2011 LD% plummeted, and I’m not going to guess at the reason, but what I’m saying is that walk rate typically doesn’t just plummet like that. Still, if you think .338 from .300 isn’t that much of a fluctuation, then neither is his .266 from 2011, which led to a drastic drop-off in production.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
His LD% correlates incredibly well by season when using the quick-and-dirty BABIP calculation ( http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/data-erratum-etcetera/ ). Since Prado’s neither incredibly slow or fast, LD% as a decimal + .120 isn’t a horrible way to assess his BABIP.
2008-10 was quite a bit above-average and is exactly what you’d expect his BABIP to correlate with. 2008, 22.9% to .350 BABIP is almost spot-on, his 2009 19.8% to .331 is a little high, and his 2010 21% to .330 BABIP is also spot-on.
Likewise, his 14.6% rate correlates almost exactly with a .266 BABIP.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
"but hits are very dependent on luck "
only if you’re a slap hitter who keeps it on the ground, which he’s not. Hits are not “very dependent on luck”, they are dependent on how hard you hit them for the most part.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
batting average is largely dependent on BABIP, widely considered a “luck” statistic.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
then they're wrong, as cave says below
batting average is not luck as much as how well you can make contact, and how hard that contact is when you make it. Over short streaks, luck can play a huge role, but saying it’s a “luck” statistic is just wrong. Ichiro’s career average isn’t luck, it’s his contact ability and speed. Wily Tavares’ career average isn’t luck, it’s the inability to make contact. Eddie Perez’s career average wasn’t luck, it was ability. To say BA is “luck” is just not right.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That's fallacy #2.
It is pitchers who generally cannot control their BABIP and revert to the mean. Hitters generally can control their BABIP and do not generally revert to the mean.
This.
You don’t compare a hitter’s BABIP to other hitters, you compare it to their own past BABIP to see how “lucky/unlucky” they’ve been.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Dec 6, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
No it's not...
2009-2011 3B NL WAR leaders:
Ryan Zimmerman, 17.1
Pablo Sandoval, 12.8
David Wright, 9.5
Martin Prado, 9.2
Now, this includes defense, but guess what…the LF positional adjustment hurt Prado in that respect, the 2B and 3B positional adjustments are equal, and Prado is a better 3B than 2B.
So then I look at wOBA…guess what?? Zimmerman, Sandoval, Wright, Prado. It’s the same. The only difference in looking at wRC+ is that Headley is 108 to Prado’s 107.
3B is not the bastion of offense it once was.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
nice argument
I suppose I’ll have to agree with this one.
holyschwartz.wordpress.com
Still find the idea of trading Prado short-sighted...
Of course, the return is the key. It’s a lot easier to trade for a Willingham (or better) type LF later in 2012…than it is a comparable 3B. If Frank Wren is serious I’m just curious what his organizational board looks like at the 3B position…
Chipper Jones
Martin Prado
Brooks Conrad
AAAA backup IF of choice
Joey Terdoslavich (if he can stick at 3B)
Edward Salcedo
Kyle Kubitza
Brandon Drury
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
you completely left off
Drew Sutton and Josh Wilson.
by drumzalicious on Dec 5, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions
hmmm
indeed. I’d think they’d be above Conrad though.
by drumzalicious on Dec 6, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
They have less...
…power than Conrad and are probably lesser hitters overall (at least Wilson is), but definitely better fielders.
Wren will get a return so mind-blowing one-sided for the Braves that we will all kneel in his presence. He’s done it before with much less interest in his trade pieces.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
thats kind of the opposite. Thats him trading for a player that was on the market and got the player for dirt cheap. Last time we traded a player that we made available (Escobar) we got a vet on a 1 year deal and a SS prospect close to the bigs. Not that overwhelming unless Pastornicky hits in the bigs how he did in the minors for the next 10 years in a Braves Uni
by drumzalicious on Dec 6, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
It is not really the opposite...
…and the Escobar trade seems different. Here we are willing to trade players, but don’t need to do so. Sort of a different kettle of fish from either type of trade.
True but...
Houston was just being stupid, they traded Pence for nothing the same week, and we gave up Infante for Uggla who had a very good year before we traded him.
The Astros got two top 50 prospects for Pence. How is that nothing?
Dunn and Infante for Uggla was pretty close to nothing. A poor defensive middle infielder on a BABIP fueled career year, and a reliever who can’t find the strike zone.
Prado
I seriously hope that all the buzz around Prado is a smoke screen.
Really doesn’t make much sense to trade him.
- ChillyMutt
I like Prado. Wren, from what I’ve read, has made it pretty clear that neither guy gets dealt unless the Braves improve. That is to say, I don’t anticipate a trade like we’ve seen the past few years where the Braves trade a vet for high level prospects (such as the trade that brought JJ to Atlanta).
I think Wren is playing it right. Teams need to know that the Braves can trade, or not trade, either guy and feel comfortable about 2011. Heck, we won 90 games with Prado in left field and missing 1/3 of the season. Teams should know that they should either come to the table looking to make the major league roster better right now, or not come at all.
neither guy gets dealt unless the Braves improve
I’ve seen Mark Bowman repeatedly use that quote. And thought it was odd.
Well shouldn’t that always be the case?
When would you make a trade to intentionally make your team worse.
- ChillyMutt
People do it all the time
because I think he’s talking about the MLB team, not the organization.
If we traded Prado for good prospects in A or AA, the MLB team would get worse, but the organization as a whole might become stronger.
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
Trades to cut payroll would be trades that make the team worse…definitely not the case here.
The Lowe trade, for instance, probably made the team worse on the trade alone, but the organization had the depth to cover it and got money out of the deal.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
To save money
see Soriano for Jesse Chavez.
Or for future returns, such as Vazquez for Melky, Logan, and Vizcaino. That made us worse in the short term for hopefully but possibly not a better long term with Vizcaino.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I don't think this necessarily shows we are shopping Prado or JJ.
But since it has been widely reported that we would move them in the right deal, all the interested parties are checking in and doing their due diligence.
Beckham and Quentin
So the White Sox are willing to trade Beckham and Quentin. Seems like we could make a trade with them that fills all needs. Thoughts?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/knoblers-latest-braves-beckham-tigers-rays.html
I thought about this when I read it on MLBTR. I think the White Sox have soured on Beckham due to his poor performance over the course of the past 2 seasons at the plate, but he came up as a 3B IIRC. If we could ever get him right at the plate, he could be a steal.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Dec 6, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
He was a college SS...
…I am not sure about the minors, but then again, he was in the minors for a very short time.
The vast majority of his MiLB games were at SS...
he was essentially learning 3B on the fly when he hit the bigs.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=beckha001gor
http://sportsandgrits.com/
That pair only fills our needs if...
…(a) we trade Prado, and (b) we move to the American League where Quentin can DH (think Garrett Anderson bad). Even then, we are still an outfielder short.
What’s worrisome about Beckham is the dropping walk rate, while his K rate has increased. And, we have the coach that he worked under.
Rockies got Slowey
"What up? We're three cool guys looking for other cool guys who wanna hang out in our party mansion. Nothing sexual. Dudes in good shape encouraged. If you're fat, you should be able to find humor in the little things." Again, NOTHING SEXUAL
"I'd rather jerk off a tiger in a phone booth than draft Cam"
-Mel Kiper, Jr.
you guys are like a bunch of pirahnas
by chop goes da weazel on Mar 31, 2011 12:32 PM PDT
bleh
dumb acquisition for them. He’s a flyball pitcher going to Coors.
by drumzalicious on Dec 6, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
A bit behind as far just reading the post,
but I have to say I am officially not happy about the Lowrie bit being off the table. I mean, not the greatest numbers in the world, but would have been kinda perfect as the stop gap. Heck he is still really young, so he might improve a bit or at least have less chance of injury/needs for rest. The best part is that his career OPS is over .700 and he didn’t strike out over 100 times last season. Hopefully the Sox are just teasing.
He didn’t strike out over 100 times because he only had like 300 at bats.
Lowrie doesn’t impress me much and seems overrated, especially when comparing to Pastornicky, who is about 5 years younger and has much more speed.
I feel like SWAT right now..Colin Farrell GET AT ME! GET AT ME! LL Cool J GET AT ME!
by bwellnjonesco on Dec 6, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
Pujols’ offer from the Fish is 10/$200+
Holy Lord:
Reyes
Hanley
Pujols
Stanton
Morrison
Buck
Omar
Coghlan
You'd think I was Travis Tritt struttin my FINE ASS on down to Florida
that would make them pretty damn tough. how is the rotation and bullpen though?
if it happens, at least the phillies won’t be able to roll them all season lol
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
The bullpen should be fine...
…with Bell and the former Leo Nunez. The rotation is either iffy or decent depending on Josh Johnson’s health.
No Juan Carlos Oviedo (nee Leo Nunez)
…with all his legal troubles he’s all but guaranteed to be non-tendered.
I don’t always find things on TC exciting and gripping, but when they are, I prefer: Duwanis
by Santaklose11 on Dec 2, 2011 6:08 PM EST
The Marlins just announced...
…yesterday or over the weekend that they were tendering him a contract per MLBTR.
Such a weird thing…
Link: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/marlins-plan-to-non-tender-juan-carlos-oviedo.html
Then, yesterday’s headline on that same article changed with the update: Marlins Plan To Tender Contract To Oviedo
Funny to see the link and the title contradict each other. Either way, immigration and what not is going to take some time. There’s a lot of legal hoops he’s got to jump through before he can come back to the states, let alone begins playing ball.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
So what happens if they tender, and immigration holds him out a year like they did Ascencio?
would the Marlins have to pay, or does it roll over in to next winter?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
He probably goes on a restricted list and doesn’t get paid, but I think service time would accrue. I’ll def. have to check that, though, as the restricted list isn’t one of my areas of expertise in regards to service time accrual.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
And the answer...
via Cot’s:
If a player, through some action of his own, is unable to render his services to his club, the team may petition MLB to have the player placed on the restricted list. Generally, the list is used for a long-term absence, such as a drug suspension, a visa problem or leaving the club without permission. A player on the restricted list does not count against the 40-man roster, and there is no minimum or maximum length of time he must stay on the list. A player on the restricted list is not paid and does not earn service time.
All this said, I read somewhere that they can only be on the restricted list for a maximum of two years, at which point the team must activate or cut the player. Not sure which it is.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
So if he's all but certain to be "restricted" this year
and not allowed in to the States, you risk nothing by tendering, and can control him next offseason.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I thought he had to take a year off too
similar to Jairo Ascencio (formerly Luis Valdez).
But I’d guess they then deal Gaby Sanchez for pennies on the dollar in prospects or pitching.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
They already have Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco. They also signed Heath Bell to be there closer.
gawd i hate the marlins
Braves.
Falcons.
Gamecocks.
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