Braves Quote For The Day ... Jack Of All Trades, Master Of None
by gondeee on Dec 23, 2011 9:21 AM EST
in Braves Quote For The Day
Email
PrintFriend of the blog, Mike Newman of Scouting the Sally and FanGraphs, has a scouting report up for the Atlanta Braves projected starting shortstop in 2012, rookie Tyler Pastornicky. We haven't discussed Tyler that much on this blog, though he's been discussed at length around the Choposphere for months. As the Braves keep reiterating, they are comfortable starting the season with Pastronicky as the everyday shortstop. Here is some of what Mike has to say about him:
When reflecting on Tyler Pastornicky, the phrase, "jack of all trades, master of none" comes to mind as a fitting description. Quite often, this type of skill set leads to a long career in the major leagues, but not necessarily as a starter which is the sentiment amongst contacts in the industry. However, I saw a shortstop who projects as a capable second division starter, but not a player good enough to truly stake claim to the title, "shortstop of the future" for the Braves, or any organization for that matter. [...]
In struggling to find a strong comp, I keep coming back to Pastornicky scouting similarly to Cincinnati Reds shortstop Zack Cozart with a bit less pop and better speed. However, Cozart was 23 in double-A in 2009 when Pastornicky pushed through the same league at 21 which points to the potential for a higher ceiling in the end. With a 4.2 WAR Fans projection for Cozart though the combination of solid, but unspectacular offensive numbers and above average defense, the formula for Pastornicky to replicate and make doubters look silly is laid out in plain sight.
For a guy like Pastornicky there are going to be a very wide range of reviews about him. Some insisting that he can handle the everyday job, others seeing him as not ready. I'm stuck between those two camps, but I lean heavily towards the latter. I like Pastornicky's contact ability, his speed, and what I view as a good and evolving approach at the plate. What I can't get past is that he's simply not ready for the everyday role in the Majors, not yet. Yes, he did well for a month and a half at triple-A, but I don't see that spurt of production translating into replacement level production in the Majors -- even for a defense-first shortstop.
The Braves will likely not put a lot of pressure on Pastornicky, sticking him in the eighth spot in the lineup and asking him to just play good defense while learning in the Majors. The Braves might be getting a little cocky here, thinking the recent success of all their other young rookies means that another rookie can make a similarly successful transition to an everyday role in the Majors. But Pastornicky is not Heyward or Freeman.
His development track needs to be longer, with a full year of triple-A as he works on and refines his approach. He needs to get more consistent defensively to handle the rigors of full time Major League shortstop duty -- that being one of the hardest positions to break into the Majors on an everyday basis. Pastornicky is good, and he would be a good backup now if we needed him to be, but he's not an everyday Major League shortstop just yet.
This situation reminds me somewhat of the Braves decision in 2009 to hand the everyday center field job to then 22-year old Jordan Schafer. He had less experience at the upper levels of the minors than Pastornicky, but he was equally unprepared for the everyday starting role he was thrust into. Yes, the wrist injury he suffered early in the season likely caused some of his numbers to look worse than they would have, but it was pretty clear he was not ready for consistent Major League pitching.
I'll get plenty of folks who disagree with me here, but I've never been that high on Pastornicky, and I don't see much more than a solid utility guy with speed right now. He could be good enough for the Braves until Andrelton Simmons is ready, likely in 2013 (oh yes, I'm much higher on him). After all the Braves did allow Nate McLouth to stay in the lineup everyday while hitting below replacement for almost two years. My prediction is that Pastornicky will be less than what the Braves want at shortstop next year, and a mid-season trade for a veteran starting shortstop will be made. Don't misunderstand me, I'll be rooting for Pastornicky to succeed (and for my prediction to be wrong), but at this point I don't see that happening.
As Newman says above, the formula is there for Pastornicky to make the doubters look silly. I'm one of the doubters, and I do hope I end up looking silly (you are welcome to throw this back in my face), but I just don't think Pastornicky is ready for the Majors. And the Braves will regret handing another everyday job to a player who is not ready.
54 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I expect Pastornicky to be, at worst, replacement-level next year (like 0 WAR). If we get someone like a Jack Wilson, are we really going to get someone much better?
(I would sign Jack Wilson though as a failsafe though)
We should have the chips for a midseason trade if needed. I’m not worried about it as of right now.
I would love to see TP's spray analysis...
I cannot discern from the box scores whether these were just seeing eye singles and balls to the hole that he’s beating out with his legs….i’d like some reassurance that he drove some of these balls, hit some gaps.
I agree, i don’t see him as a long term solution at SS…but have thought maybe in 2013 or 2014, he could slide over to 2nd, and Uggs could play out his contract in LF, depending on his level of progress and what we decide to do with LF, if anything. Maybe we don’t acquire a big bat this year, and we go into next year and make 3B the position we spend our big $$ at, with Chipper’s contract hopefully coming off the books (for xmas, all i want is for Chip to decide this IS his final year).
this is a dream for me.
if we can keep bourn, having pastornicky and simmons playing would leave us with speed atop the lineup and big bats all the way down. if terdo develops as well, then we have the luxury of making a decision to trade to restock the future
by M.artin V. P.rado on Dec 23, 2011 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
Neither Pastornicky or Simmons...
…should hit anywhere near the top of the lineup unless they turn out far better with the bat than expected. Speed is nice at the top, but you need people who can get on base more than you need speed.
of course
which is why its a dream. if either can put out higher than .360 obp, it’d be best case scenario, and worth considering sliding them in that part of the lineup.
by M.artin V. P.rado on Dec 24, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
Jordan Schafer came to the Bigs at 22 years old with a "look at me" attitude...
and certainly didn’t have the numbers Pastornicky’s put up AA and above. A crappy attitude and 2 years to realize that raw talent wasn’t going to be sufficient…is what did JS in.
Tyler NEEDS to be in the lineup if he’s capable of putting up anywhere around a .340 OBP (that’s about 40 fewer outs per year compared to Sea Bass). I’m all in favor of this move, he’s at the MLB minimum and most likely to be better than an fWAR of 1.1 (Sea Bass 2011).
If we can refrain from maxxing out our budget now…we’ll better be able to take on a big salary at the July trade deadline…
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
"Jordan Schafer...certainly didn’t have the numbers Pastornicky’s put up AA and above"
His .269/.378/.471 line in AA was better than anything Pastornicky has done in his career.
Poor wording I admit, but my point was more this...
Schafer’s 350 PAs in 2008 were better than TP’s numbers in AA, however JS’s numbers were inflated and unsustainable based on the following…
.352 BABIP
25.1% K rate
14% BB rate (has never approached than since)
TP’s number suggest more consistency, and he K’s only roughly 10% of the time…although I would like to see him be a tad more selective and walk more. My point is I think his MiL body of work is more conclusive that he’ll have a higher probability of staying at the ML level.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Pastornicky’s Babip in AAA: .398
by another simpsons avatar on Dec 23, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
your point? ha.
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
I don’t think any of us actually believe that his showing in AAA is indicative of his true ability, and I don’t think any of us are evaluating him based soley on those numbers. The fact of the matter is that he hit for a .346 wOBA in AA with a relatively easily sustainable .315 BABIP, and with 395 PAs, that’s not nearly as easily written off as a lucky hot streak.
Since speed is one of his biggest tools
he should REALLY hit 9th, because it makes no sense to attempt to steal in front of the pitcher. Either way, it’s a big risk to ask TP to be the opening day starter with no prior MLB experience.
by another simpsons avatar on Dec 23, 2011 9:41 AM EST reply actions
In some situations it makes sense to steal in front of the pitcher. If he’s a good base stealer, he can steal 2nd and then allow the pitcher to bunt him over to 3rd.
The best situation is with a lead and he’s the lead-off hitter in the inning. If he reaches base and successfully steals 2nd, and then the pitcher’s sacrifice is the 1st out in the inning, it leaves the top of the order 2 outs to get the run across the plate and add an insurance run.
Of course it would be stupid to try it with 2 outs, because if he gets caught then the pitcher leads off the next inning and you’ve wasted an out, but doing it with less than 2 outs and a lead isn’t necessarily a bad move.
The truth will set you free, but not until it is finished with you. ~David Foster Wallace
I may not always be right, but even a blind nut finds a squirrel every once in a while.
Plus he can steal second when the pitcher fails to bunt.
'There are two pains in life. There is the pain of discipline and the pain of disappointment. If you can handle the pain of discipline, then you'll never have to deal with the pain of disappointment,'- Nick Saban
Like I said on my FanShot, I think a slash of .270/.320/.350 is a good median projection for him and one that shouldn’t be too difficult to attain. If he can play even average defense, then that’s a 2-2.5 WAR shortstop, which is more than twice what we got from A-Gon.
I'm with Gondee on this one
…and I think a .270/.320/.350 might be a little generous as the median. He simply hasn’t seen pitching of major league caliber- or fully rested AAA pitchers- and that’s one hell of a jump from AA. We’ll get a decent preview in spring training, methinks, and I think Wren will be keeping a close eye on him before the season even begins. We really do need a veteran who can also play SS (sigh, o Infante, how I miss thee) because there’s a good chance said vet will be making regular starts.
by crimsonqueen9 on Dec 23, 2011 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think it's too optimistic.
He and Elvis Andrus were basically identical minor-league hitters (I would even say Pastornicky has been slightly better)—Andrus was younger but TP has had more success at the upper-levels. If Andrus was able to hit .267/.329/.373 as a rookie, I think it would be reasonable to expect production that’s similar but slightly lower.
You need to adjust a little further down...
…due to the difference in ballparks.
I have him at .080 ISO versus .106 from Andrus, which seems like a fair scaling to me.
by swainzy on Dec 23, 2011 4:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
TP more success at the higher levels .....
Andrus only played one year at AA – so what higher levels are you talking about – and he was only 19 years old ! Let’s remember that TP was basically a .265/.335/.345 hitter for three seasons in the minors prior to this year – so, was this year a breakout year or will he revert back to his historical numbers ? The fact is only time will tell – the things we know for sure about TP is he has a great contact rate and above-average speed and decent yet, unspectacular defensive abilities. He has earned the right to compete for a starting position in ST and I wouldn’t place any expectations on him at the MLB level this year – hope he relaxes and just competes well
by bravesfaninchitown on Dec 23, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
You don't consider AA to be an upper level?
Regardless, I don’t expect him to be spectacular. I’d be thrilled if he was average, but I also recognize that there is the possibility of him failing to adjust to make league pitching. As you said, only time will tell.
by swainzy on Dec 23, 2011 5:19 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Which is not even at all the most important thing to be considered. For instance, reconcile his good speed with a ML defense and the net result is not the same as a comparison with his speed and a MiL defense. Though there are many more adjustments, that statline is pretty generous with BA and OBP and perhaps a decent median for SLG. But optimistic is a good general appraisal.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
He's pretty similar to Alcides Escobar too
And Escobar only hit .235/.288/.326 as a rookie, so I think it would be reasonable to expect similar production. See how that works? Just because a similar player adjusted (or didn’t) to the majors with ease, doesn’t mean that Pastornicky will.
To me throwing a “comparable” name out there is only either: a) an approximation of similarities in distribution of talent (i.e. how various skills compare) or b) an attempt to simplify things to the point of uselessness.
Though baseball is a game built on repetition, which in the macro means we see many different players in many different generations, each player is inherently different. Trying to predict outcome based on what another player did is going to be innately flawed. The progression, skill-set, psychology etc is bound to be different. The point being that saying that two players share a skill-set is fine and dandy, but saying that this predicts certain production (either within in a year or in a careeer) is almost always flawed. The best case scenario is an educated case.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
I never said that Pastornicky would adjust to the major leagues with ease. I said that something slightly below Andrus’s rookie season would be a good median. The median does not mean the most likely outcome. The median is the middle between two extremes: halfway between him falling flat on his face or him making a seamless transition and front-running the ROY race. The line I suggested and the Andrus comp WERE NOT predictions of his likely performance; they were simply ideas of what to expect if a few things go his way. In fact, I believe it is quite likely that he will fall short of my suggestion, but even if he does, that doesn’t make a suggested median invalid.
by swainzy on Dec 24, 2011 9:44 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
But why is something below Andrus's rookie season a good median?
Why not something around Escobar’s, even if you want to make it a little better? And I’m not sure you understand the concept of median. It is precisely the 50th percentile outcome. It is a line where there is a 50% chance he does better and a 50% chance he does worse. The fact that you believe it is more likely he falls short of you projection than surpasses it means you agree it isn’t actually a median projection for his performance.
I didn’t say it was more likely; I said it was quite likely. That was poor phrasing on part—I was implying that there’s at least an equal possibility of him falling short as there is meeting or exceeding the projection. The reason for the confusion may be that you assume Andrus’s season as the ceiling for the highest possible outcome. I, personally, do not. I would consider something aroung .300/.360/.400 as the best he could possibly acheive as a rookie—anything more is unreasonable; with the something slightly worse than the Escobar comp being the worst-case scenario, maybe .220/.270/.300—anything less is unreasonable. When you average those two, you get .260/.315/.350, which is pretty damn close to what I originally suggested. (And before you jump on me for using the mean instead, remember that with two data points the mean is the median.)
Your predicted floor and ceiling may be completely different from mine, and that’s fine because this is all pointless conjecture anyway, and I’m not sure why anyone (myself included) is taking this so seriously. I might as well be using a random number generator for how effective fan-projections are.
There are more than two possible outcomes for him
So no, the median isn’t the average of the best and worst case scenarios. Like I said, the median should be what you think he’s got a 50% chance of doing better than and a 50% chance he’ll do worse than. I’m not saying your projection isn’t the median, just trying to make sure you understand what the median actually is.
I took a statistics course; I know what a median is, so you don’t need to ‘help’ me. I’m just having some…difficulties applying the concept that’s in my head to the situation in a way that’s less ambiguous to those who are not within my head (which would, hopefully, be everybody). In any case, all projections of rookies are a crapshoot, so I think this discussion can end with a simple ’’We’ll see.‘’ I’m actually pretty excited to see how the kid will hold up.
by swainzy on Dec 24, 2011 1:22 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
"I know what a median is, so you don’t need to ‘help’ me"
Well you’ve said seriously incorrect things about it, so I guess we simply disagree on that.
My bigger issue is with the idea that you can just compare him to a similar prospect that successfully transitioned to the majors, adjust down a little, and act like its a completely reasonable projection. That’s just not how it works.
Whoops, phone-posting is difficult.
That’s nice and all, but I’ve already stated (multiple times) that rookie projections are useless anyway, and are pretty much just to generate discussion. I didn’t intend for it to be taken very seriously or to be argued over.
by swainzy on Dec 24, 2011 4:33 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
It’s not a question of whether or not Pastornicky is ready. It’s a question of who would take his place and how would the Braves acquire him. Since we don’t have any money and there aren’t any (known) shortstops on the market, it’s tough to imagine Wren landing anyone better than TP.
by Scott Coleman on Dec 23, 2011 1:44 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Theriot is still available, but he might not be better and we might not be able to afford him anyway. Wren has said all along he’s going the trade route, but no trade rumors have even mentioned SS’s that I recall, just OF’s. I think Josh Wilson or Drew Sutton will end up on the bench.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Honestly...
…the difference between Theriot, Josh Wilson, Jack Wilson and the like is so minor that it barely matters which scrub ends up on the bench.
And really, if that is the way we want to go...
…i.e., a good field, no hit backup SS, why didn’t we claim Tommy Manzella off waivers when the D-Backs outrighted him last month? No, he isn’t really any better than the rest, but he would make a difference to me in obtaining cool Braves stuff since his sister is my neighbor. (I mean, why don’t the Braves make decisions based upon where I live??)
Fun facts
In well over 1,000 minor league plate appearances over 3 seasons, Pastonicky struck out less than Drew Stubbs did last season alone.
In the entire 2011 season, Pastornicky struck out the same amount that Mark Reynolds did in August alone.
TL;DR – Pastornicky makes a ton of contact.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
So, what you're saying is
A minor league hitter strikes out a whole less against minor league pitching that two major league hitters who strike out a ton.
I’m not even sure if this is sarcasm. Saying he stirkes out quite a bit less than the two players who led the league in strike-outs….doesn’t seem too useful.
Braves will be fine. I'm not worried.
by Bronn on Sep 18, 2011 4:26 PM EDT
Jingle Bells
Well, if worse comes to worst, he’s gotta sing better than the rest! Jingle all the way!!
Anything better than a 1.1 WAR next year from Pastornicky and I’ll be happy. And hopefully Fredi will stick TP in the 8th spot in the lineup and not move him higher in the order (a la Sea Bass)
Morton hit Heyward with an offspeed pitch. Early indication is that the baseball survived the impact.
$10 said he starts the season hitting second because Fredi likes his speeeeeed and then he struggles early and everyone that doubted him will start ranting about how we rushed him and Capitol Avenue Club will write an 800 word obituary to his career after 15 games.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
+1 million
well said my friend, add another 1 million b/c CAC will always write something negative about a guy on the team.
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
Dammit, if you have the ability to see the future (and a bleak one at that) won’t you at least lie to us for the sake of our psychological well-being. This is exactly what will happen and I predict we see it a month into the season.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
I should clarify
First they will decry the decision to give him the SS job in spring training. Then if he starts out hot they will dismiss it as BAPIP luck, and if he starts off slow they will quickly declare “I told you so” and explain how he will never be a starter.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
No, no, no. That’s predatory behavior. You are confusing that with the opportunistic scanvenging of a vulture.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Attempting to predict what he will produce is so highly speculative as to be meaningless.
My opinion and belief is he is ready to compete, will do reasonably well, and will help the team have a very good season .
by fandave on Dec 24, 2011 7:10 AM EST via mobile reply actions
The organization seems to think he’s ready, they know better than we do.
Wren said this week that if ST shows problems, he’ll make a move then. The Angels need/want pen arms and have Aybar who is a FA next year. Might be a decent time to consider a rental.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I love Talking Chop, value the ideas and opinions of all of the very knowledgeable and passionate fans who post here, and really think gondeee and the other editors and front page writers do an excellent job, generally speaking.
However, I seriously doubt anybody here is an experienced baseball scout or other career talent evaluator.
So, yeah, I am fully in agreement that the Atlanta Braves organization is in a better position to make a solid judgment call about TP than we here in TC-land are.
by fandave on Dec 24, 2011 4:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So there's no point in talking about anything at all
Because other people are smarter. Why is there even a comments section on this blog?!
Braves will be fine. I'm not worried.
by Bronn on Sep 18, 2011 4:26 PM EDT
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Talking Chop
Related FanShots on Talking Chop
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- Roy Oswalt doesn’t need to save the Rangers, he only needs to provide insurance and depth
- James Loney: Umpires should call pitches from behind mound — and be robots with replay
- Magglio Ordonez set to retire after 15 seasons
- Barry Bonds thinks it will be ‘very sad’ if he doesn’t get into the Hall on his first try
- Chris Johnson’s glove webbing had a Spidey sense at Coors Field — for one play, at least
