Talking Jair Jurrjens Trade Value
by gondeee on Dec 22, 2011 9:08 AM EST
in Braves Trade News
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PrintMLB.com's Hot Stove crew talks about the Atlanta Braves efforts to trade starting pitcher Jair Jurrjens, what their reasons for trading him might be, and what kind of market might exist for him out there.
All off-season we've said that the young kids are ready to take the reins of a Major League rotation spot. Despite injury concerns with Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson to start the season, the Braves seem willing to deal Jurrjens (if you believe all the rumors). Though the talking heads in the video are right when they say that Jurrjens' trade value is greatly diminished right now.
I've been conflicted about this all off-season. I began the off-season by pointing out that Jurrjens was the most likely pitcher to be traded due to his increasing salaries through arbitration. As we learned more about the uncertainty of the TH-es in the rotation the more I felt it was probably best to hold onto JJ until everyone was mostly healthy. Then there was that whole "we want a Greinke-like return" thing, then we realized that ain't happening.
Where I am right now is kind of in the hold-on-to-him camp. If the team trades him, I want to see them get maximum value, and that might be more achievable by proving he is fully healthy with a strong spring training. That would also help the Braves cover for all the other health question marks, and help them determine if the kinds are ready to step in.
Actually, opening the season with a few starts from Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, and Randall Delgado -- two of them filling in for the still rehabbing Hanson and Hudson -- might be a good way to measure which one of them is ready to take a rotation spot (or which two of them are ready, meaning the Braves would then be free to trade Jurrjens). Early season trades are pretty rare, so it may be closer to mid-year before Atlanta could free up a spot in the rotation if Jurrjens is not moved in spring training.
There are scenarios aplenty. I guess right now I'd kind of like to see the Braves hold on to him, but it should be clear by now that the Braves won't be holding on to Jurrjens for long. I'd say there's a 95% chance that Jurrjens is traded at some point in 2012. Younger, cheaper, better options exist in the Braves system.
UPDATE 12:30pm:
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports posted an article regarding Jurrjens, and mentions a couple of point (most of which we already knew):
Jair Jurrjens has drawn some interest from the Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Tigers, Rangers and others. However, while Jurrjens is a terrific young starter, he appears to be behind Oakland's Gio Gonzalez on the pecking order of most teams, possibly because of potential concerns about the knee injury that hampered him at the end of last year.
Figures that Gio would be ahead of JJ on teams' wish lists.
The Braves also have suggested that they will not trade Jurrjens within their division, thereby eliminating the active Marlins as a potential suitor.
Der. I think the Braves really want to trade him out of the league.
The Braves say they are only considering trading Jurrjens because they have a wealth of starting pitchers, and a need for improving their offense. Jurrjens' arbitration number is expected to be very high, as well, and Atlanta has been limited financially this winter.
Both mentioned above by me.
One other issue with the Braves is that their history of trading starting pitchers is so good that some others teams are leery about trading with them. It seems they know just went to deal pitchers, right at the height of their value.
They've gotten lucky, but they've also never traded a pitcher this young with Jurrjens' kind of track record (HoRam is not a comp here).
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Looks more and more like the team is staying pat unless really wowed. Wren’s asking prices have had teams scoffing, basically. Which is a good thing for us. Better to be scoffed at than ripped off.
by michaeldlee1480 on Dec 22, 2011 10:11 AM EST reply actions
I would hold onto him as well.
At least till mid point. He could prove he is healthy. It could give the organization time to get Huddy and Hanson well, and to try out the young guys to figure which young guy will fill his spot (if traded).
Not to mention if he has another stellar first half like last year, his value could sky rocket and you could pull off a monster mid season trade and truly get maximum value for him. There of course is the risk that he doesn’t have a good half or proves doubters wrong, but that is a risk I would be willing to take.
It just doesn’t make sense to trade him now.
And I wouldn’t trade Prado AT ALL. He is the perfect player to extend. Hardworking. Good player. Solid clubhouse guy. Loyal (would probably give a home town discount). Plays multiple positions with solid defense. It just doesn’t make sense to trade him ever.
I am just somewhat perplexed.
It makes sense to trade him if you get good pieces in return….if you can get a stud prospect or two along with an ML ready LF, for example. That’s just my opinion…
by michaeldlee1480 on Dec 22, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I'd
Do that
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Dec 22, 2011 10:28 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I think Prado would be OK with the years, but 6 mil/year is seriously low. He’s going to beat that in his last year of arby alone unless he has a terrible year. I think 4/36 is not only fair, but could get it done. I’d shy away from going 5 years.
Not if there are cheaper options…sure if there aren’t.
by michaeldlee1480 on Dec 22, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions
I think he would accept 4 / $20M, if he knew he was staying put.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
+1
He loves the ATL
"I wasn’t thinking about it. That’s the worst celebration of all time. I didn’t know what to do. I got lost in the moment." - Brian McCann
by HansonManCrush on Dec 22, 2011 10:48 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree
Plus he has moved his Mom here from Venezuela. He seems very much a Momma’s boy, I imagine he wants her comfortable, not moving about continuously
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Given the state of things in Venezuela (including the recent kidnapping), I’d move everybody remotely related to me if I possibly could.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
Remember the week Prado missed in 2010 with stress headaches? It was right after his Mom went back to Venezuala on Visa issues.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
No, I didn’t match that up… fair point.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
I don't think we need to extend him right now
we have him under control, and have some nice prospects coming up the line (terdo, salcedo, drury) could be ready to replace him at 3b in 2014. if these guys fizzle, then we have plenty of time to make the right move.
by M.artin V. P.rado on Dec 22, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t have a lot of faith in Terdo sticking in 3B, but I can see him in LF. Prado may also be needed at 2B eventually.
may*
i absolutely agree, but I also think pastornicky/simmons could be there. it’s too early to tell, and therefore too early to extend
by M.artin V. P.rado on Dec 22, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Pastornicky I can see being our 2B once Uggla leaves in 4 years or is traded away.
I don’t know if he has the arm for 3B without having the arm for SS.
If he’s got the arm for SS, the only way he plays 3B is if he and SImmons both reach full potential. That’s unlikely but I hope that’s the case.
In such a case Prado becomes very expendable unless we deal Uggla. (If Uggla has a good year and Pastornicky does as well, I’d really consider trading Uggla for prospects or a LF)
I don’t think the Braves expect Hanson to be rehabbing at the beginning of the year, it’s much more likely that he’ll actually be our opening day starter.
I definitely want to keep Prado while Chipper is still at 3B, but I also agree that standing pat with Jurrjens makes sense. There are so many question marks to sort out in the rotation, so if no one will actually give us a good haul for him then it just isn’t worth it at this point. Better to trade him mid-season when we know more (although there is the issue of trading him to another contender where he could hurt us).
You hit on a great point – right now, we kinda get the luxury of having 29 other teams to deal with that all want to improve… the [very few] deadline-desperate teams willing to give up more are the ones we don’t really wanna help (unless we have a total melt-down, and nobody expects that).
I was also thinking that other than providing injury-depth-protection, we may as well try and move JJ now anyway — just because we expect the drop-off to be negligible as the four horsemen ride into town. That way we get future value and stop blocking guys that are ready to help today.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
One thing about holding on to Jurrjens that seems to be slipping through the cracks is future arbitration for the young pitchers. We are going to get ROCKED in arbitration in a few years. Delaying a clock or two is not a bad thing.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Yeah, but we already gotta do arb with Jurrjens this year if we keep him, so it’s a wash, really.
Without JJ, the rotation nominally stacks up as Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, and Teheran or Delgado. So one of those guys starts in AAA anyway.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
We can afford JJ’s arbitration this year, Can we afford Heyward, Freeman, Beachy, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Pastornicky, Kimbrel, Venters, Vizcaino and Medlen all at the same time? Maybe, but it’s something that needs to be thought out.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Heck, I left out Hanson. That could be 12 arb eligible guys at different levels at one time.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Arb reasoning is why it might make sense to consider a trade of Hanson and not JJ.
Much higher return, and JJ I can see replacing Hudson as the staff vet in 2 years.
I agree
I’ve been told I was an idiot plenty of times, but I’d try to keep Jurrjens long term and let Hanson argue about his contract with somebody else.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
I agree with you on this one. Plus, I just dont trust Hanson’s shoulder.
by swainzy on Dec 22, 2011 1:36 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Keep Jair, sign a MI like Theriot, consider trading JJ mid season. We have a good team already.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
So many...
Of the Braves underperformed last year…so few exceeded or even met expectations. If no moves were made between now and Spring Training, I like our chances to win the East!
With the injury concerns of Hanson and Hudson, I believe JJ doesn’t get traded until next season unless Wren get a package that maximize his value. Every since Wren has been the GM, he has shown zero urgency of trading his pitching until he thinks the time is right.
No kidding
The man does value his pitching. Thank God!
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Well let's break it down further...
The Orioles, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Rockies, Tigers and Rangers are among the teams that have expressed some interest in Jair Jurrjens, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Braves have suggested they won’t trade the right-hander within their division.
Team-by-team:
ORIOLES: Well, given the public machinations over Adam Jones lately, I don’t know that there’s a deal with Dan Duquette anywhere on the horizon. And that’s sad, considering that the once-proud orange birds are still gonna be hammered by ever other team in the AL East for the foreseeable future… despite their manager’s best efforts.
RED SOX: Speaking of that AL East, the Sox aren’t in on Darvish, but…
The Red Sox are "in on everybody [else]," Knobler reports. Peter Gammons of MLB Network confirms that the Red Sox are still looking for starters. Apparently, they would prefer signing Koruda (who prefers the West Coast) or trading for Gio Gonzalez…. and so does everybody else. Any trade we’d want to do with them would necessarily include 3B prospect Will Middlebrooks, since most of their good prospects are a long way away.
BLUE JAYS: These guys are loaded with high-grade pitching prospects, and could probably part with a couple. Position players? Catcher D’Arnaud is probably untouchable, the rest are a ways off. In the Majors, there’s a huge dropoff after Jose Bautista in the outfield (and that’s including Rasmus). Oh, and most of the rest hit lefty… Rajai Davis being the best of the righties. I dunno… this looks to be a tough matchup.
ROCKIES: Well, according to a PurpleRow insider just 2 days ago….
The Rockies are flat not interested in Jurrjens. O’Dowd said so last week.That said, they need pitching and we need outfielders. On paper, it’s still the best matchup of all these teams.
TIGERS: I originally thought this could be the better matchup… odd since Jurrjens was stolen from Detroit originally. The A’s are said to want Detroit’s #1, #2, and #5 prospects for Gio Gonzo…. they balked at that, of course, but the Braves would likely not want those guys…. maybe one of their multiple LHP prospects, but that’s it… their best prospects are still quite young. So this would come down to whether the Tigers would be willing to part with a major league outfielder for JJ (+/- others). But even that has serious flaws: Boesch would be another lefty (and the most untouchable). Austin Jackson would be interesting if you can tolerate his strikeouts. Then there’s Magglio… except that he hasn’t had a “Magglio” type year since 2007… and 2003 before that. At age 38, you have to think he’s done.
RANGERS: Darvish. Darvi$h. Beyond that, Andrew Bailey…. maybe Oswalt. But that only so that they could flip somebody for a 1B or CF guy, according to MLBTR yesterday. So I just don’t see a lot of smoke on this one at all, unless Cruz was involved somehow.
So, I just don’t see a lot happening here… at least among those named squads.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
by carpengui on Dec 22, 2011 11:30 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I think there is a good fit possibly in TOR with a trade based around Travis Snider. He has never really broken out but also has never been given a full season to try. If the Braves think they can figure him out they could let him share time with Prado in LF while Prado fills in around the diamond. He still has major power potential and is still very young so it’s hard to tell how TOR or ATL would value him.
Jason Heyward wins at baseball.
by bbxxj on Dec 22, 2011 11:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Snider and Rasmus are the intriguing guys… and yeah, either guy in a swap with JJ might be a case of both teams looking at ‘potential’… and if any team would be willing to pull the trigger quick, it’s certainly the Jays.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
A deal with the Red Sox
for Middlebrooks and Bogaerts would suit me JUUUUUUUUUUUUUST fine.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Dec 22, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
Great post, but my conclusion, oddly, was that if a trade does happen it’s going to come out of nowhere.
Sgt.: Pointed stick? Oh, oh, oh. We want to learn how to defend ourselves against pointed sticks, do we? Getting all high and mighty, eh? Fresh fruit not good enough for you eh? Well I'll tell you something my lad. When you're walking home tonight and some great homicidal maniac comes after you with a bunch of loganberries, don't come crying to me! Now, the passion fruit.
Agreed — the stupid part is that all of these “baseball insiders” could be doing the same work I just did and draw their own conclusions on the viability of a trade with these teams. But no… in a twitter world, they simply report “Team A is talking to Team B about Player X”, … and that’s it.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
Just move JJ
At this point do anything. This team as presently constructed isn’t going to the playoffs. I don’t believe in painc moves but there has to be an outfielder available. I’d love for this team to be working on a Beltran deal but Liberty is probably being lame about that.
TV Journalist Chris Hanson is a cockblocker
Other stuff
Rival executives say the Blue Jays have been engaged in lots of trade talks for cheaper options [than Yu Darvish] . (Buster Olney)
Baltimore has seemed especially interested in Jurrjens… wouldn’t even consider trading … Adam Jones straight-up for Jurrjens. “Not even close,” the person said. (John Heyman)
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
I wonder...
if Adam Jones is to Hunter Pence
what Nick Markakis is to Michael Bourn….
although, salary figures could suck with Markakis.
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
Let’s just say that I won’t be nominating JJ or Prado for the cover of either the 2012 Media Guide, the Maple Street Press Preview mag, or the Clubhouse Collection Catalog.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
Robert Fish?
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
Gio is off of the board.
With Gio and Yu off the board, JJ has to look more enticing to clubs looking to add a top of the rotation starter. I mean who’s left, AJ Burnett?
"Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject, so you know you are getting the best possible information."
that deal should definitely make things a bit more interesting.
although with the holidays coming up we might have to wait a bit more.
True.
I wish he would have went to the Red Sox. The Nationals are building a young frontline pitching staff. Actually, that kind of sounds familiar :)
"Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject, so you know you are getting the best possible information."
Makes me wonder...
if we should’ve made a run at Mat Latos…pair him at the top with Hudson and Hanson and you’d be set!
"If it's F'd up then it's F'd up" --- Gregg Marshall
He may be on the Nats now, but check this...
gondeee Talking Chop
Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals should at least help the Braves’ team on-base percentage.
Nice.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
+1
Greg Walker’s tip of the week: When you face Gio, don’t let the bat leave your shoulder.
"Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject, so you know you are getting the best possible information."
As to "who's left?"...
Buster_ESPN Buster Olney
Best available guys left on the trade market, with Gio coming off the board: Matt Garza, Jair Jurrjens, Wade Davis, Jeff Niemann.
Supposedly the Blue Jays and Padres have been making noise about Garza… but it’s a bit of a mystery whether Garza is even available.
"Sir Stealth, Stay stealth.. Your a moron" (jrod1142), 12/15/11 (the epic FWren Fortitude FanPost)
"Now if you somehow talked the Diamondbacks into throwing in Stephen Drew in that deal [with Justin Upton]… then I’d be in the line w/ justin and whoever else w/ my knee pads on." - Klemson Krash, 12/20/2011
Epstein said everyone is available
Chopmaster: my link is my dad who has watched the braves since I don’t know. he’s 56.
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