Shortstops
by calbers on Nov 8, 2011 10:56 PM EST
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I think everyone assumes that our SS will either come via trade...or we will resign Gonzalez to a one year deal. I have personally have been under the assumption that it will be via a trade. However, I have to question if that is the best idea.
We have mentioned some of the options already: Aybar, Scutaro, etc. Yes they would be upgrades at SS. However, at what cost? Would be better off looking for a SS on the cheap and put that extra money...prospects into adding a legit LF bat?
If you look at some of the numbers Gonzalez provided very little in the way of overall value in terms of WAR.
Gonazalez provided a 1.1 WAR for the year according to Fangraphs.
Compared to:
Barmes 3.1
Ronnie Cedeno 1.4 (May God have mercy on my soul for suggesting Ronnie Cedeno as an upgrade of any sort).
Ramon Santiago had a 1.4 WAR.
Theriot had a .7 (and that is w only 4 SBs. He steals his more typical 18-20 and that value goes up)
Brendan Ryan was 2.6
Heck...Jack Wilson typically has had a +1 in years he played the full season.
My point is that if Gonzalez is going to cost another 2.5 million per for a 1 or 2 year contract....are we better off going cheaper and using those resources elsewhere? It looks to me that it isn't a question of how good can we get at SS...but how bad can we afford to be? If you are going to be bad...be bad and cheap? Could we make up that different with a legit bat in the OF and a little better depth on the bench.
Not sure if I have come to a specific conclusion but it did make me wonder if the opportunity cost to get a "good" SS is worth it.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Seriously?
This wouldn’t work in one of the half dozen other fanposts on the topic?
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Of course not
QUICK POST MORE FANPOSTS ABOUT SHORTSTOPS OR THE PIXIES WILL DIE
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Whoa, whoa, WHOA! Hold the phone!!
We need a SS? Why wasn’t I notified of this development sooner! Be right back, need to go draft a new fanpost……now where did I put those Jose Reyes stats…..
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 9, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
That's the silly thing
we really don’t need a SS, because everybody knows that we’re going to sign Reyes and/or Rollins.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If we can just get Pujols, Kemp, and Reyes………..
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions
and of course plan B is Prado plays SS.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
≠
Plan B? Prado at SS was plan A+ all along. Wren is only floating Marteeen’s name in the trade market to motivate him to work even harder this offseason and to encourage the following exchange…
Prado: “No trade, Mr. Wren. You need new shortstop? I play shortstop for you!”
Wren: grinning deviously
Yeah, well, you know, that's just, like, uh, your opinion, man. -The Dude
i would argue that Brendan Ryan ( who i love BTW) will not produce that much value next season, and either with Barmes. Although it is certainly possible.
both players have below average bats and are relying solely on their defense for value, similarly to Gonzalez. There is every reason to believe that Gonzalez is as good as any of those guys. Not to mention 2.5M for a starting SS is a steal (even for Alex Gonzalez considering he produced around $5M in value this year)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Ryan is (surprisingly) a better bat than Gonzalez and is owed only $1.75m this year. He’s also five years younger. I’d take a trade for Ryan over resigning Gonzalez.
Also, in the case of Barmes, he earned almost $4m after a bad 2010 and had his best season ever. He could get over $5m, so I think he might be a bit too costly for what he is expected to produce.
I fully support Ryan, I just don’t think he will produce 2.6M…
Also his bat is different, not necessarily better,IMHO…he has a much higher OBP, but no power. his defense might be a little better.
I’m not opposed to replacing Gonzalez with either Barmes or Ryan, I like them both. But at what cost, is the issue for me? Can we get Ryan for a C prospect or worse (then I’d probably do it).
I just think Gonzalez at 2.5M is a decent deal, given what he does. He can’t get on base but the has pop is a solid baserunner and plays great defense, and while many times people dismiss this aspect the team seems to respect him and like him and a happy clubhouse is a good thing. Of course with his age there is a risk he gets even worse (GASP!), so going after Barmes or Ryan may be preferable (and i think it is depending on the price).
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
maybe the bats are comparable
but if we are considering the short stop a non offensive position, one that is only going to contribute iwth either OBP or power, I would want OBP
That doesn;t clog up the offense in the way someone that strikes out often, hits into a lot of double plays, and slumps hard. A black hole in the lineup for more days is Gonzalez, and that messes with the whole lineup. Someone that at least doesn’t get out as much, that’s way more valuable from an 8th hitter kind of guy.
Suggestion that the Braves obtain a "bad and cheap" SS...
God, this is brilliant! A surefire ticket to the World Series! After all, why would the team need a good SS?!
I had a terrible nightmare...
that we traded Julio Tehran to the Marlins for Edgar Renteria.
I know that Renteria is a no longer a Marlin, but damn that scared me.
After reading Wrens comments about trading for a SS I think that Ryan, Jed Lowrie, and Eduardo Nunez and maybe Darwin Barney are some guys he might be targeting. Definitely not the only targets but they all make sense, because if there is an internal option that makes sense in 2013 then they should be easy to flip, or Nunez and Lowrie could possibly be a stopgap at third base if Chipper retires.
Don’t hate Barmes on the right sort of deal either though.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
of those guys only Lowrie has any potential to be an above average player. I would love to see what he is could do if he actually played 150 games. I dont really know if the Red Sox would get rid of him, but maybe they would. I also don’t know how much I would give up for him. I believe in his ceiling, but I am fully aware of his floor.
Barney, can’t hit and is basically just Brendan Ryan minus the exceedingly impressive defensive acumen (felt the need to drop big words, sorry).
Nunez is worse than Barney offensively and the worst defender of the lot. but he steals bases, so there is that.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Don’t apologize for your elocution. I am aware that all of these guys have their pitfalls but the fact that all of those teams need a starter and that Wren has hinted that he doesn’t want to block the Braves SS prospects. I think that dealing with one of them as our SS for a year or even just half a year after witch you could flip them or make them a utility player.
It’s not really ideal, but if you trade JJ and a guy like Varvaro or Gearrin for any of these guys you should also net a decent prospect in return. Don’t really have a problem with Gonzalez for one more year, but if a team like the Twins want to give him 2 years good for them.
http://tarpslides-r-us.blogspot.com/
"Ryan Theriot" and "shortstop" should not appear in the same sentence.
He has:
1. No arm
2. Bad hands
3. No power
4. No ability to walk
5. Forced Cubs fans to coin an entirely new acronym — TOOTBLAN — to track how atrocious his baserunning is.
In other words, I’d prefer Tyler Pastornicky, Jack Wilson, or even — horror of horrors — Ronny Cedeño.
"I've never complained about it. I'm thankful to have a jersey." Mark DeRosa, 22 Aug 2007
seeing this
Frank Wren told us that they are open-minded to SS…& more likely up-grade by trade than Free Agency. They do like Pastornicky but not rdy
and this
Frank Wren told us indirectly that they are NOT pursuing Jimmy Rollins or Jose Reyes because they are not looking to sign a SS to multiyr dl
got me thinking, if FW is speaking the truth, or at least his offseason hopes, who could we be looking at for our next SS? It is a weak position right now and most of the better ones are FAs looking for long term deals, untouchable, or under control for a few years and not what were looking for or would come at a very high price tag. So through process of elimination, unless FW is just talking (which is possible)
Take out the untouchables:
Jeter, Tulo, Castro, Hardy (said to be untouchable after extending and i believe this will be the case until Machado is ready), Andrus (i don’t see them having trouble extending him, most likely trading Profar for pitching or keeping both and moving one to 3B)
FA:
Reyes, Rollins, Betancourt, Barmes, Furcal, Carroll, Renteria
(all are likely looking for multiple years with the exception of possible Carroll and possibly Furcal but i think he’ll resign)
Under contract:
A’s – Pennington has 4 years left and not much of an upgrade
Blue Jays – Yeah….
Giants – Fontenot and Crawford have years left and no real interest
Indians – Cabrera, love the guy but don’t see him as available
M’s – Ryan is there for 2 more years and no a real trade target
Marlins – See “Blue Jays”
Nats – Desmond would be interesting but clearly not a stopgap which is what FW is appears ti be looking for
Padres – Bartlett wouldn’t be too much of an improvement
Pirates – a mess
Rays – had 3 guys with out 30 starts and no real possibilities
Red Sox – Scutaro is probably staying put and Lowrie would be long term
Royals – Escobar, long term and don’t see them moving him
Twins – Casilla, Tolbert, Plouffe, Nishioka all got time and don’t seem like viable options
White Sox – Ramirez would fit nicely and i feel would be attainable but he is under contract through 2015 with a high price tag
What’s Left:
Angels – Aybar is solid and 1 year left, and I would think on the radar if available but they don’t NEED to move him and have a good staff on hand. If they feel they can extend him I don’t see them moving him for JJ or anything other than one of the 4 arms
Tigers – Peralta bats RH and 1 year left on contract but I just can’t see him being moved. And if he were to be, I think Det would want one of the big guns and FW isn’t going to give them up for a rental, if for anyone. Still a possibility, but unlikely.
So if AGon isn’t resigned our SS for 2012 will be…..
Stephen Drew
1 year remaining on his contract with an option.(7.75 for 2012) He does hit lefty which isn’t a perfect fit, ARI is a small market team and most likely isn’t going to keep Drew beyond this season. They have some good young pitching they will be looking to lock up for the future. Because the lack of talent at SS, he will have a big pay day coming with a productive season which could push his efforts in staying healthy and his performance. Because they are looking to again get to the postseaon, ARI might be better off getting use of him until the deadline and then moving him so his tag might be alittle higher right now. (although it would be just as high then because of urgency, they could use that argument now) Still I don’t think it would take too much to get him.
Since 2007 he has a .267/.321/.445 slash and a .331 wOBA(the same as Hardy in that same time, a name i’ve seen thrown around here alot) Until this season he has proved to be a pretty durable guy. He is also from Georgia and wouldn’t be a bad option to extend and shift of to 3B next year.
I would be happy with a JJ/Drew straight up deal and ARI would atleast have to consider.
Bourn
Prado
Chip
Mac
Uggs
FF
Drew
Heyward
How would y’all feel about that?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
no
that lineup is incorrect
it’d be either
Bourn
Drew
Chip
Mac
Uggs
FF
Prado
Heyward
or
Bourn
Chip
Mac
Uggs
FF
Drew
Heyward
Prado
or just take my first lineup and swap FF and Uggs
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I have no desire to acquire Drew
…especially not at the cost of JJ.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 10, 2011 8:11 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I would take Drew for whoever our fifth best pitching prospect is and a decent guy from A or A+.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 10, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions
I'm not saying i think Drew is the ideal fit
nor is he top on my list
But I don’t think it would take JJ to get him. They’ve already resigned McDonald and Bloomquist and could be looking to move him.
And look around the league. If FW is trading for a SS there isn’t a better fit in terms of guys we can get that potentially won’t cost one of the 4 horsemen and won’t be for multiple years.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I'm not sure I want Drew regardless of trade cost
He’s way overpaid and hasn’t produced anywhere near the money he’s getting. He’s living on name alone at this point.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 10, 2011 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
Unrealistic.
When Arizona “shopped” Justin Upton at a ridiculous price last season, they said they wouldn’t move Drew even for that price. A year later and with Drew hurt, they might move him, but they would want more than JJ. Also, they have signed two other SS types in recent days, indicating that they aren’t sure that Drew will be ready for the start of next season (or they just like collecting utility players, which, scarily, might actually be the case). That Drew is right-handed is not a significant advantage as pretty much all shortstops hit right handed or are switch hitters. All in all, I just don’t see it happening.
Damn you bird and your reasonable realisticness
you’re killing the dream man.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
“reasonable realisticness”
really….?
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
What? It's a perfectly cromulent couplet
did I spell realisticness wrong?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
i dispute realisticness, but approve of cromulent, because of its origins (or usage, i suppose it was originated on a certain television show)
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
Too true
the proper word is “realisticalness,” obviously.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Amn't.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
don’t be stupid….its realistcalnessity.
"No. Lonely people mixing with one another? Breeding? Creating an even lonelier generation? You're not even allowing natural selection do its work. Pssh. You're like the guy who invented the seat belt."
Dwight Schrute
i could very quickly get on that bandwagon
it’s hard to pencil him in there, but with the protection behind him, he might get some more pitches to hit, which could really help him get going. We are really pulling for his success, and it’s probably worth letting him struggle in the 2 spot for a while.
If he can even be the heyward of his rookie year, I hear you, he would be a phenomenal hitter there. It would move his moderate speed to the top of the order, as well as his monster OBP. Of course these are the reasons he would also be the ideal hitter from the third spot, perhaps he and chipper could switch midway through the season if he turns it on again.
If he "turns it on again"
2nd is the best spot for him. Period.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Per MLBTR
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/marlins-offered-jose-reyes-six-years-90mm.html
If the Padres want to move Jason Barlett where would he rank among SS the Braves can/should acquire?
.245/.308/.307/.615 last year
Pass.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
At least Sea Bass had a SLG higher than his OBP
That’s just… special.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
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