Dr. StrangeGlove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love to Rosterbate
by carpengui on Nov 7, 2011 1:50 PM EST
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PrintYes - the previous Rosterbation post is still active... so way did I feel the need to start another one? Lots of reasons based on recent newsy items:
"Wait - yeah, they're still watching us." Seabass and Odarp: Walking off into a Braves' sunset?
1. The Braves are openly saying that they are listening to offers for Jurrjens and Prado.
2. The Braves are increasing payroll for 2012. I already believe they had some cash to spend before that announcement and the Lowe trade added $5m more. If Prado and JJ are ultimately dealt, this saves $3.1m and $3.25m from the 2011 payroll - never mind their expected increases via arbitration. And, of course, the Braves would have to fill those positions.
3. The non-Super-2 status of any player for 2012 Arbitration has implications.
4. New rumors are flying about concering a number of current Free Agents
5. A new Cuban defector of significant note (Yoenis Cespedes) is out there. As of this writing, the Marlins are supposedly the front-runners for him, though the Yankees have high interest... and so do a number of other teams.
6. Many of the comments on that prior thread are simply no longer applicable, having been overcome by events. And there's only 3 days to go on it...So why not start afresh and see how this goes?
7. Hey! The World Series is over, the season is over,... my mourning over September is...um, pretty much over. It's indeed time to stop worrying and embrace the changes this off-season will likely bring to the Braves roster.
While pitching is still going to be an issue this off-season (primarily with bullpen holes to fill - Linebrink, Sherrill, possibly Moylan), Atlanta usually waits on these slots until later. That leaves us with finding an outfield upgrade, shortstop, and utility infielder.
To kick things off, please refer to the following chart of outfielders. I list all of these guys for two reasons: (1) for complete comparison purposes; and (2) because both Free Agent and Trade routes may be available in our quest for upgrading the position. Hopefully the image download bandwidth limits survive this thread. All data obtained via fangraphs.
Click here to embiggen the chart for slightly easier reading. You'll have to click-through a second time... hopefully that will also help that bandwidth thing.
This FanPost does not express the views or opinions of Talking Chop.
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Like the reference
In the title. Good one.
Rec'd just for the title.
Not so sure we need to find an outfield upgrade and a utility infielder, however, since we have both, in one player, currently on the roster.
I’m kinda talking out of both sides of my typewriter on this one — if we indeed trade Prado, then this is a moot point: we gotta fill the hole. If we don’t, then the chart above shows what’s needed to actually “upgrade” the position… which is potentially a lot, depending on which numbers you want to believe in.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
That chart...
…covers only one year. Half the names above Prado on that chart are very likely downgrades, not upgrades, because one year does not a career make. Jeff Francouer would be an obvious example.
Although I do give you credit...
…for putting Prado 2010 and Heyward 2010 on the chart. Hard to upgrade from them.
We need a SS, and then one or the other so Odarp can commit to being one or the other
and a veteran relief arm (Zumaya?)
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Veteran relief arm?
Jamie Moyer is impressing in his workouts. Can’t get much more veteran than that. Seriously though, I would love to offer Zumaya at least a minor league deal with an invite to ST if he would accept.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 7, 2011 3:40 PM EST up reply actions
if i remember correctly
we had alot of interest in him a couple of deadlines or offseasons ago.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I think that was the year...
…we were interested in every starting pitcher in existence. (And signed more than one that didn’t work out.)
I think that was the season of 1962.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions
Chart #2 -- Outfielders from 2009-2011
Full-sized, non-eye-squinting version available here.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Note...
…that it says at the top “with a few selected ringers thrown in.”
I think the argument is finally settled...
Martin Prado > Kelly Johnson
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
Would love to get Marlon Byrd
however that would mean Prado to the bench or traded leaving Chipper or Heyward hitting 2nd. Wouldn’t want Byrd there. Swisher would be a perfect fit in that case
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Marlins legitimately in on Reyes...
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/jose-reyes-to-meet-with-marlins.html#disqus_thread
I’d love for them to not give the Mets a first-round pick, and for the Mets to return the favor with Rollins…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
if they pull reyes off the market (and set the market for SS MVPs)
then put hanley out there… they could potentially end up not paying that much for Reyes.
they've already had conversations that if the get reyes, they'd move hanley to 3rd base
and I believe hanley has said he would agree to the move to get reyes to miami
DFA Heyward. I'm dead serious
by wpf3211 on Aug 6, 2011 9:11 PM EDT
When all else fails – beat yourself.
by NCChopper on Sep 12, 2011 9:47 PM EDT
I know we would probably hate it, but
What if we offered Prado+ to the Phillies for Domonic Brown?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
Matt Murton
Ripped up Japan the last 2 years, and could be had for probably an incentive-type deal as a 4th OFer.
Oh yeah…AND he’s a Yellow Jacket!
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
He's had plenty of chances...
…and never succeeded. I am not sure what he gives us that Diaz (who is already signed) does not. Also, being a Yellow Jacket is a negative, not a positive. ;)
"Never succeeded" is highly subjective when you look at his career MLB slash line...
286/.352/.436/.788. Granted he wasn’t the same player when he left the Cubs in 2008. I can’t find his slashes in the NPL, but he broke Ichiro’s season hits record in 2010.
Yellow Jacket is a very, very posititve attribute…
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
never succeeded?
the argument that he gives us nothing that Matt Diaz can’t is founded, but a .788 OPS and above average defense seems like success to me. In fact, the only years he was actually given a legitimate shot was ‘05-’07 where he put up really good numbers: .296/.365/.455 in 929 plate appearances.
In 2008 and 2009, he was given a total of 129 plate appearances. He did poorly.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
Here’s the question, can we deal away Diaz, he’s right now $2mil and not worth it, and we got cheaper options.
Maybe he's a throw in piece to even up
Prado or Jurrjens for a higher salary SS or LF. Otherwise, I’d say no, and imo we ultimately cut him in the spring when someone beats him out for a spot on the 25 man roster.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
The Phillies were interested in him at one point.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 9:55 AM EST up reply actions
Why would they be now, though?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I don’t know why they do the things they do. Why would you offer a record-breaking extension to your past-his-prime, already declining 1B?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 10:13 AM EST up reply actions
His MLB numbers are pretty dismal, but his time in Japan was pretty special. Certainly worth kicking the tires if he’s cheap.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
He’d make a lot more money staying in Japan, so he’d probably at least want a guaranteed major league contract.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions
My latest obsession:
Yanks get: Jair Jurrjens
Braves get: Nick Swisher, Mason Williams, Joba Chamberlain
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
What on earth would we want Chamberlain for? I’d do JJ straight up for Granderson, but Cashman isn’t suicidal.
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
I’d do JJ straight up for Granderson, but Cashman isn’t suicidal.
Actually, if they manage to land the new Cuban on the block, that might very well be possible. Only problem for them? JJ might not be available by then.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
How about JJ for Swisher with them throwing in the difference in salaries?
http://sportsandgrits.com/
If we deal w/ the Yanks...
I’d ask for their defensively challenge Catcher… Look how well it worked out for Texas… Where do we play him you might ask? Ummm…. Yea… I will have to get back to you on that… Maybe put him in CF… he couldn’t be any worse than Melky… and if you have Bourn in Left and Heyward in Right… he wouldn’t need to really play defense… amiright?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 10:58 AM EST up reply actions
Haven’t really seen you around lately, but wow what a comeback!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Always looking to make a splash...
:-) How goes it?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
Going pretty well, you were overseas in London or something right?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
truth...
Updated posted in the OT from Chopper… but I’m back in the states now! :-D 2 hours from Braves baseball!
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
Nice, welcome back mate.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
Since when the Marlins have so much money
They are pursuing Reyes, the cuban defector Cespedes and Pujols and Fielder. Of course they won’t sign all, but what the hell is this? This will make the division even more harder to win now with the Nationals being good and now the Marlins.
The PuertoRican Kid
I guess they expect the new stadium to bring more revenue and allow them to spend
plus MLB has gotten on them for being cheap and pocketing revenue sharing money instead of investing in the franchise.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
If you're suggesting that Loria *listened*
I’m shocked.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Per Heyman, Per MLBTR
The Braves are looking for a Zack Greinke-like return in a deal for Jair Jurrjens, according to Heyman (on Twitter). The Royals obtained Jake Odorizzi, Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar and Jeremy Jeffress for Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt last offseason.
Are we asking for too much? Surely the two could land Swisher or Quentin, or another bat. however it seems FW is looking for near ready prospects.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
From an independent viewpoint, yes FW is asking too much. At their peaks (and logging over 200 IP) JJ was about a +4 WAR pitcher, where Grienke’s worth a +6 WAR. Hell, Grienke missed 6 weeks to start 2011 and still finished at almost 4 WAR. JJ hasn’t put up 200 IP since 2008.
Maybe adding Prado justifies a return similar to the Grienke/Betancourt deal…but not more.
"Reach down in there...TURN THAT DAMN THING UP!" - Coach Paul Johnson
A Jurrjens/Greinke comparison…
Jurrjens and Greinke comparison with B-ref’s WAR:
Greinke: 24.4 WAR in 1279.2 innings
Jurrjens: 11.9 WAR in 702.1 innings
If Jurrjens continues same production, here’s where he’d sit after 1279.2 innings thrown:
20.7 WAR (3.7 WAR less which equates to about .5 WAR every 200 innings)
Considering that Jurrjens will come at a price tag around 13-14 million less over 2 years than what Greinke did, the reported scenario shouldnt be that far-fetched especially considering the Royals didn’t particulary "sell high" on Greinke.
Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?
statistically, and to me
yes that makes complete sense and you are correct. But i feel Greinke is overvalued and view him only slightly better than JJ. But most don’t as after his Cy Young 2009 he took on the appearance of a shut down ace. Thus, the return package to KC. I don’t expect anything like that return for JJ
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
A bit of Wreneuvering...
Throw out the Greinke comp, don’t pull an offseason deal. Jurrjens comes out gangbusters next season, and all of a sudden people buy into it and he gets moved midseason.
He’s already been linked to a top prospect, probably wrongly, but might as well keep the price tag ridiculously high and see what falls into your lap…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Wren is just posturing.
He knows that he won’t get a Greinke return, but he’d be dumb to say that in the media. Talk up your own guys, set the bar high, etc etc.
I still don’t think trading Prado is a good idea. First of all, I’m almost certain his hitting form will recover with Parrish gone. Second, trading him leaves too many holes — it leaves us hoping that Heyward recovers his form, and then we still need a utility infielder, especially considering that Chipper is almost bound to miss at least 40 games.
I’d be more willing to trade JJ if we can get a big bopper for the outfield in return. Then, we have insurance if Heyward doesn’t work out. And if he does, we have both Hinske and Diaz available on the bench (and Hinske backs up at 1B, and Diaz is the emergency catcher).
"Some people give their bodies to science. I gave mine to baseball." -- Ron Hunt
bigger than that
is getting him out of the 2 spot behind Bourn…
he is a spark plug at the top of the offense when he can do his thing, not with Bourn on base.
I think we need a SS that can hit second, or we should move chipper to bat second, because Prado should be batting 7th or 8th.
Brett Gardner would be fantastic
But we already know the Yanks don’t wanna touch any Braves pitchers
I wonder if Logan Morrison is a possibility, considering the management’s disapproval of his… persona, for lack of a better word
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Nov 8, 2011 12:30 AM EST reply actions
LoMo sounds like he is on the way out in Florida...
Call me crazy but we might see a completely different Miami Marlins team… Hearing rumors of a possible Hanley trade as well… If we work with Florida and give them a pitcher, how much do you think it takes to pull off Hanley as well!? Imagine the blockbuster it would be to get LoMo and Ramirez…. far fetched? who knows…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions
In all seriousness
….if the Hanley thing can be squashed by moving him down a peg on the leadership board, making a move like that would be great, and one that I could even sign off on including a Teheran or Delgado in. You play Hanley at SS for a season, then move him to 3B after Chipper retires and let Pastornicky or Simmons slide into that role. I’m just curious what level of blockbuster would be required to do that.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 8, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
I don't think a rosterbatory thread could hand that kind of awesomeness...
It would probably break the interwebz….
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I'll throw a fresh name out there
How about Adam Jones? The Orioles are in a rebuilding phase and could use some pitching to help build around which is something we have a ton of. We have the luxury of being able to offer them MLB ready pitchers or pitchers from the lower minors. For that reason I am not sure of a packager per-say of what it would take to get him because I don’t know if they want guys that are closer or further from the bigs.
Projected lineup
Bourn
Heyward
Chip
Uggla
McCann
Jones
Freeman
SS
If we’re going to make a deal with the O’s… How about…
Jurrjens, Vizcaino, Hoover, M. Jones and Pastornicky for Adam Jones and J.J. Hardy?
Michael Bourn (CF)
Adam Jones (LF)
Chipper Jones (3B)
Brian McCann ©
Dan Uggla (2B)
Freddie Freeman (1B)
Jason Heyward (RF)
JJ Hardy (SS)
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Nov 8, 2011 1:42 AM EST up reply actions
They said they weren't going to trade Hardy after he signed an extension.
I don’t remember if it’s actually written into his contract (or if there’s a poison pill clause), but yeah, I don’t think Hardy will be moving.
I think that’s way to much.
Also Jones’ OBP over the last few years tells me he needs to be lower in the lineup not hitting 2nd.
by drumzalicious on Nov 8, 2011 5:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I would love to have JJ Hardy at SS, but it seems really unlikely. He just signed a big contract extension and had management basically say he was not a potential trade target as result.
However, that being said, there is new management in Baltimore this year, so maybe it’s a possibility now? Also, 3 of the Oriole’s top 10 prospects or so are suited for the left side of the IF, with two of them (one is arguably their highest valued prospect) being pegged as their SS of the future. Maybe the knowledge of having these prospects will give Duquette the peace of mind to move Hardy, especially with the pitching need that their organization has.
Just happy to see somebody else mention JJ Hardy as a player they’d like to see in a Braves uni. I thought maybe I was the only one.
by TheMattHatter on Nov 10, 2011 6:31 PM EST up reply actions
Also, apparently, Hardy has an 8-team No Trade Clause in his contract. I wonder if that includes Atlanta?
by TheMattHatter on Nov 10, 2011 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
I read somewhere that it usually includes big market teams as a way to get them to pay players more for going to their team.
by drumzalicious on Nov 10, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Typically it does, but this one was actually (according to sources at the time of the contract) designated by Hardy. In that scenario, and being last season, I imagine he would’ve put down 8 contenders in markets he would like to be in—especially with the 3-year length of the deal. At the time, Braves were not only a contender, but also seemingly a lock for the play-offs (wah-wah :( ) so maybe we made that short list.
If so, I’d love to have a player of Hardy’s ability under two years of team control at about $7million/year. It’s not cheap, but, it’s worth a .270/.320/.430/.720 line with 20+ HR at an offensively starved position—especially considering that Hardy, while not Gonzalez good with the glove, is still above-average defensively.
Again, I doubt this deal would/could ever happen, but, that’s why they call it Rosterbation, right?
by TheMattHatter on Nov 11, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
Would Cespedes be worth a gamble?
5 yrs/$30mil, can play a good CF though his body’s a bit big , likely a good bat. I’d stick him in RF, move Heyward to Left, and give Pastornicky a shot.
Gives us leverage on Bourn also- in that we can have him walk if need be.
6' 215lb
If that report is right, thats certainly not too big for CF
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Dude...
…if you saw the promotional video, you would know he can do everything!
There's only one baseball player who can do everything
and he’s already a Brave.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You obviously haven't seen the video...
…he catches balls behind his back, gives shout-outs to random people, and roasts a pig, lol.
I've seen the video
And the guy doesn’t once give a weather forecast, or financial advice, or a medical diagnosis, or a performance on the stadium organ.
Pass.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Scott Proctor?....
but he’s not a Brave anymore
Wren's meeting with Cespedes' agent now
and rumor running around is Cespedes wants to be close to family (in the South) and the Rays aren’t in it and the Marlins are putting their eggs in the Pujols/Reyes baskets.
we could very well end up with him.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 16, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
We could use more young OF's.
He would make sense if the price isn’t too ridiculous.
If Nelson Cruz is quietly available, I think he's a guy worth consideration.
In this scenario, we have to keep Prado for the inevitable 30+ days on the DL for both Chipper and Cruz (and to spell both of them), but that plays to Prado’s strengths anyways. We can ship them Jurrjens+ (not going to speculate on what it would take).
This way we get our RH bat and can afford a bit of a black hole at shortstop (either resigning Sea Bass or bringing up Pastornicky). Cruz does have declining peripherals (walk rate, LD% and Oswing%) and has the aforementioned health problems which gives me pause, but there’s not a perfect solution in the bunch.
I've been thinking this as well.
I think they might have to sweeten the deal on their end a bit, but you’re trading an injury risk pitcher for an injury risk OFer.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Greetings TCers...
It has been a while since I’ve been able to comment regularly and I definitely have missed y’all.. for the three people who will actually read this, I do have some rosterbatory thoughts that I need to spew real quick before I make a mess over here…
1) I am still on the Jed Lowrie bandwagon. We must lure him from the Red Sox.
2) Prado should remain on the team as our super utility guy. He’s far too valuable to undersell.
3) We should investigate thoroughly what the Miami Marlins want for LoMo and Hanley. We may kill two birds with one stone there… If it takes JJ, Pastornicky, one of the 4 horsemen and another piece or two… We should SERIOUSLY consider it.
4) We should sign Zumaya to an incentive laden deal.
5) We should allow our young guns to take over the bullpen. Let EOF, Venters, Kimbrel hold down their jobs and keep Vizzy, Medlin, Gearrin, Moylan and Martinez in there… We do NOT need to spend money on a brokedown Vet. (exception: Zumaya)
6) Do not touch our rotation (short of trading JJ). Hanson, Beachy, Teheran, Hudson, and Minor got it. Redmond, Delgado, Cordier and Medlen (if needed) can hold down the spot starts for injuries. It may be smart to pick up a vet type for AAA (a la Rodrigo Lopez last year) May be Kawakami is available, I hear he has some experience in MLB…
7) BELIEVE IN JASON FREAKIN HEYWARD.
8) In Frank Wren we trust.
That is all. Thoughts?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
1) agreed, and it may make sense after his down season, them committing to Scutaro, and Iglesias already in AAA but needing a little more seasoning.
2) agreed, the problem is spending his price for a bench bat
3) agree on LoMo, but Hanley is a no go. Not our type of player, and we’d have to fire Fredi to get him cause I’d assume he (and perhaps Uggla) would refuse to have him back in their clubhouse
4 and 5) agreed and been saying the same all offseason
6 and 7) agreed
http://sportsandgrits.com/
My how I have missed thee... Let me count the ways...
Great perspective and a horrible oversight on my part about Hanley… I gotta say though, if his maturation is truly reality (as has been reported)… you gotta believe the business side of baseball comes into play and we do what’s best for the team… Chipper would stomp a mudhole in the kid if he didn’t set himself right…
I can’t believe I got over a 90% approval from Mr. Sanchez. I’m marking this day in history… It has to be my highest approval rating yet… :-D
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Pretty sure Uggles and Fredi were just upset they were left off Hanley's Christmas card list.
Merry Christmas Mothaf*ers!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Hanley is a no go. Not our type of player, and we’d have to fire Fredi to get him cause I’d assume he (and perhaps Uggla) would refuse to have him back in their clubhouse
All the more reason to acquire Hanley!!
"My parents do a lot of things behind the scenes that go unnoticed"- Cam Newton, Heisman acceptance speech.
by TurnerTheBurner on Nov 8, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
El Presidente
The security detail was lured by one Mr. Beachy in fighting off the throngs of women pursuing him day and night. I’ll need to hire more!
BTW, I agree with 99% of what you just posted.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 8, 2011 11:39 AM EST up reply actions
Money is no object...
My backers are allowing me a higher payroll this year… I’ve also shed some dead weight on my payroll… :-) Hire away… Just make sure not to be lured by the “veteran presence”…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
1. I have no problem with getting Lowrie if we don’t overpay.
2. Using Prado as a super utility guy (i.e. sitting 2-3 days a week) is silly if the goal is getting Morrison to play every day in left. Morrison isn’t a better hitter and is worse defensively. I agree on not selling low on Prado.
3. Hanley isn’t going to happen given the history with Uggla and Fredi. Morrison is probably obtainable, but why downgrade in left?
4. We could, I guess, but I don’t see the point in signing someone to sit on the DL all year.
5. No problem there.
6. No problem there except with the caveat that if a great deal comes along, you have to consider it.
7. Amen.
8. Trust, but verify. ;)
I respectfully disagree on LoMo.
I don’t necessarily agree LoMo is a worse option for our LF needs… He doesn’t strike out criminally… He has good power w/ some serious projectability… he’s 24…. He’s not a butcher in LF… and w/ Bourn beside him, he might be even better… Keep in mind, last year, he didn’t have a real CF playing beside him… In my minds eye… I am kinda stoked about a lineup that would look like this…
Bourn
Reyes (ok, I’m rosterbating hard core here)
Chipper
Uggla
McCann
LoMo
Heyward
Freeman
W/o Reyes (or Ramirez) you could put Chipper in the 2 hole and Heyward or Freeman in the 3 hole… and it’s still darn impressive… Shoot, put Lowrie (from my fantasy world) in the 2 hole… Either way, it’s a strong, run producing lineup…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Welcome back
I’ve missed seeing Lowrie’s name in every other post. :)
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You're welcome...
At least you don’t have to put up w/ my Schafer love anymore… :-) Miss you too.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
I'm sure you're spreading Schafer love over at TCB
He needs it.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
eh... i'm a fair weather fan....
if they leave my team… to hell w/ them… they’re dead to me. :-)
Just kidding…. i think…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions
We'll just have to agree to disagree on Morrison v. Prado.
From everything I’ve seen, and all the defensive metrics, Morrison is pretty much a butcher in left. Not really his fault; he is actually a first baseman, but they had Sanchez so they moved him. His bat may be a little better than Prado assuming he progresses a little bit, but the glove work would make up the difference. I just don’t see an improvement there, and we lose the flexibility Prado gives us.
Perhaps his first season in LF was bad
but he seems a decent enough athlete to improve with experience.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Copied from the JJ Front Page Post Comments
Kyle Parker – 22 – RF – R/R – From Georgia
(A).285/.367/.483 21HR 9.3BB% 25.6K%
2 sport star for Clemson. Might not be Wil Myers but has time to progress and can move quickly because of his age.
Nolan Arenado – 20 – 3B – R/R BA 2011 – #80
(A+).298/.349/.487 20HR 8.1BB% 9.1K%
Tim Wheeler – 23 – CF – L/R
(AA) .287/.365/.535 33HR 9.3BB% 22.3K% 21SB
Jumped from 12HR .384SLG in A+ last year to 33HR .535SLG in AA this year in about the same ABs. Might want to take a chance to see if this power continues.
Josh Rutledge – 22 – SS – R/R
(A+).346/.412/.513 7.8BB% 17.4K% 16SB
BABIP of .414 in his first full season so probably a big decline forthcoming. High ranked though and maybe worth a shot.
Trevor Story – 18 – 3B/SS – R/R
® .268/.364/.436 12.4BB% 19.5K% 13SB
Probably grow from his 6’1 175lb frame and see a move to 3B
Also,
Ian Stewart is worth a reclamation project
Charlie Blackmon would be a great 4th OF
Rosell Herrera is a younger 3B/SS prospect who is comparable to Salcedo
Rex Brothers would be a nice/cheap replacement for Sherrill and could fit in EOF’s role down the road.
Russell Wilson has always been highly regarded if he does in fact pick baseball
I thought it deserved to be copied over here, so it isn’t lost in the shuffle.
Also I think a trade with the Rox has merit. They always need pitching, we have extra. They need ground ball pitchers for that stadium, we’re offering up an all-star ground ball pitcher. They already have their SS for the next 10 years, we are looking for ours.
Frank Wren Comments from XM Interview (Tues, 3pmET/Casey Stern, Jim Bowden)
(Consider everything below to be paraphrased since I listened to this entirely in the car)
Regarding the Lowe trade. Must be nice to get $5 million back. “Yes, it’s nice to get that, but this was made possible by the volume of kids we have coming up that can pitch for us. There were 3 or 4 teams after the season that had interest in Derek’s services, and the Indians were the ones who stepped up and provided us with good value for the trade.” [Went on to give a brief statement about the kid who will start in AA and could become a good situational lefty for us out of the pen.]
Regarding use of pitchers by Fredi and Blackjack last year: ’Early in the year – pretty much forced into using the bullpen a lot due to close games and an excess of extra-inning games. Tried to back off on bullpen use (primarily the 3 big guys) during the second half of the season, but then the big problem of losing Hanson and Jurrjens happened on top of pitchers just not going deep into games."
‘Really want starters to go 7-8 innings per start a lot more in 2012 instead of so many 5-6 inning outings.’
How is the staff set up for 2012: “As of right now” (interesting phrasing) “we have 8 guys capable of being starters: Hudson, Hanson, Jurrjens, and Beachy…. plus Minor, Teheran, Delgado, and Medlen will be ready to go.”
“Jurrjens – the day after we were eliminated – pitched an instructional league game in Orlando. Went 5 innings, gave up one hit, and his velocity was at his ‘pre-injury’ velocity of 91 to 93. If we had made the playoffs, he would have been ready for game 3 or 4. It was good to get him a good confidence-builder going into the off-season.”
“Hanson is on a shoulder strength and conditioning program – should be done with that in about two weeks, so he will be ready to go in Spring.”
“All of these guys project to the front-middle of the rotation – none of them are even 4’s or 5’s” [Gee, that’s sounds like a marketing statement to me].
What’s your outlook about Heyward for next year? Was his 2011 performance more about injury or something else? “Jason had problems with a shoulder and as it lingered, developed some mechanical problems as well. Those kinds of things are difficult to correct during the progress of a major league season. He and Greg Walker have already talked and we expect them to get together this winter. But he should be back and ready to go.”
What about the Shortstop position? “We’re looking at a number of things here – we really like Alex Gonzalez, but we are in a position with some of our kids coming up that it’s going to be hard to commit long term to him or anybody else, and we feel like that’s the direction he’s going to be leaning towards. So we’re looking at maybe a trade or something to fill that position in the interim.”
How about Prado and left field? “Chipper’s 40 years old now and that knee is going to continue being a problem for him, so we’ve got to expect that his playing time is most likely going to be less than last year. On those days he’s out, we’ll plug Martin at third, but that leaves a ‘gaping’ hole in LF.”
Any thoughts about a Michael Cuddyer or Josh Willngham to fill in at LF, then? Well, we just don’t think we’re gonna have enough at bats for those guys. We need to have somebody who’s a little more than a bench player, but not an everyday guy… but preferably a right-handed bat so he can also spell Jason when he needs a day off."
>>ed note: at this point I’m thinking “who the heck meets THAT requirement? Diaz?”
We heard you’re increasing payroll? By how much? Well, for competitive kinds of reasons, we really can’t say, because that’s information our competition may want to know. We will not rule out making changes to our roster that we feel will improve our ballclub — and there’s nobody on the roster that we wouldn’t consider moving if we can do that…. though of course some would be harder to move than others.
Take all of that for what it’s worth!
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
by carpengui on Nov 8, 2011 4:02 PM EST reply actions 3 recs
My pleasure. Overall, you kinda come away from that thinking “well, we’re done – let’s head to Orlando with what we’ve got.” But given events already this off-season, I really don’t believe that for a second. For example, you don’t announce that your payroll will increase if that has no actual implications for either trades or free agency. So I think Frank is as Frank seems to do – hold his cards close…. and pounce when he thinks there’s a winning hand.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
I think he wants that effect
the Eh, I’m done and ready to go with what I got vibe to let other teams know, I don’t have to have anyone we’re talking about, so any trades or deals better be in our best interest, or I’m standing pat. He’s doing something, that’s almost a given, but the impression that he’s only doing what he wants, when he wants, helps us from a negotiation standpoint imo.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
…so keep the popcorn in stock for the next couple of weeks!
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
nice
thanks for this. is this available anywhere online?
by drumzalicious on Nov 8, 2011 6:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yes! FULL AUDIO OF FW Interview
Glad you mentioned it — I found it.
1. Go to this link.
2. Scroll about one page down.
3. Look at the sidebars on the right side of the page…. specifically “MLB on Facebook”
4. In that pane, search for the Frank interview and click the Arrow button to start it.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Trade Jurrjens for Jed Lowrie and prospects—Boston needs pitching badly, we save money, get a SS, and get some cheap pieces for the future. Don’t really have a great depth of knowledge so not sure who in their system would be fair value.
Sign Carlos Beltran—with the news that payroll will be increased I believe he would fit into our budget without Jurrjens here and he doesn’t come with the loss of a draft pick like Cuddyer and Willingham. Improves the lineup and his defense doesn’t destroy his value. I’d be willing to go two years. Prado becomes the “super-utility” getting a lot of playing time in both left and at third, if Heyward struggles against lefties then Prado can also play some right.
by McCann's the Man on Nov 8, 2011 4:52 PM EST reply actions
Jed Lowrie = YES... Carlos Beltran = PASS
Lowrie and a throw in for Jurrjens… I’d be happy w/ a straight up deal… but that’s just me.
I don’t think anyone has heard me talk about my love of Lowrie but a kid who can play SS and 3B w/o much issue and mash the ball w/ decent average… I’m down. Love the guy. Want him in a Braves uniform and I want it NOW….
I don’t want, nor do I care about the current version of Carlos Beltran. I would rather throw Sizemore an incentive laden contract for left field w/ an option year for 2013 and be happy… I think there’s more good in Sizemore than in Beltran. That’s just my opinion. Someone is going to look REALLY smart giving Sizemore a job… I just hope it’s us.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
what leads you to believe that Sizemore is a good bet? I think to expect him to perform is being overly optimistic, whereas Beltran proved he still has a good amount of ability last year. There is also far less of an injury concern with Beltran
by McCann's the Man on Nov 8, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
Depends on the price, he's a good bet
at a low guarantee, incentive laden deal, he’s a great low risk, high reward signing.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
I don’t think the risk lies in the in the price of acquiring Grady, simply put it won’t be an eye popping amount. The cost is more in guaranteeing a starting spot to a guy you simply don’t have the slightest clue as to what he’ll provide, healthy or not. He hasn’t really shown any ability like his former self and so there are serious doubts as to whether or not he’s actually an upgrade. Sure someone will look like a genius if they give him a one year deal and he goes back to being the Grady of old but with where we are as a team I’ll take the sure thing in Beltran for an extra 5-7 million in guarantees. I’d argue that Beltran’s last season is probably the best you could reasonably expect from Sizemore anyways
by McCann's the Man on Nov 8, 2011 11:53 PM EST up reply actions
That’s the point of the low risk/high reward. We don’t have anything in LF (assuming we want to try to use Prado as a super utility guy) Signing Grady to a 1 year incentive based contract would allow us to see what he has. If he bombs out, we eat the 1M or so, and we are back where we started. With Beltran, we sign him to a guarenteed contract, and we have to pay that even when he’s hurt, which is very likely.
Great job of summing up what I’d want to say. Beltran is a known commodity… hence you have to pay him more in money and years… Grady wants to prove himself healthy and will bust his butt for a team and take a short, incentive laden contract. He could be 1st half Troy Glaus or 2nd Half Troy Glaus… Or some mix of both… Either way, it won’t kill our team to take a chance on a potential superstar. I remember who Grady was and he’s not too far removed from being that guy again… Who knows, maybe he sets the world on fire, we resign him and let Bourn go in FA and bring in a new LF next year again… or a CF… Either way, it’s not a terrible investment. And Grady is a great guy from all I’ve heard/read.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 9, 2011 4:42 PM EST up reply actions
I've heard rumors...
…that he could get $7-9 million this offseason. If he can, I doubt he signs an incentive laden contract, and I wouldn’t want the Braves to pay him anywhere near that much.
I think those would be the projection for him making his incentives…at least from what I’ve read, I’ve seen $4-5MM base, with incentives that would make the contract worth $7-9MM.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
Still...
…I wouldn’t want to give $4-5 million in guaranteed salary to Sizemore. Of course, I seriously doubt whether he’ll ever be effective again. His legs are a mess.
I don't know if I agree...
he’s put alot of time and money (well his organization has) into making him stronger… I think he’s going to make a come back. He will be good, maybe great for at least two years… he might be passable for a year, then he’ll have to play DH or 1B for the rest of his career… I really believe he has a few more years of special talent left…
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 10, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
I just like to see him play...
…more than 30 games in a season before I pronounce that he has a few years of special talent left.
he may not be far removed in terms of number of years but after all the surgeries, especially microfracture, it’s hard to say physically he’s close to the same. I think there’s still the potential for him to be an above average hitter but those expecting all star caliber are more than likely setting themselves up for disappointment
by McCann's the Man on Nov 9, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
you really think sizemore is going to be a meager one million in guarantees? that’s blindly optimistic
by McCann's the Man on Nov 9, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
the risk lies in putting constructing a roster where you’re relying on sizemore to play in LF. If he bombs out as you say, it’s not the money that’s the issue, it’s more the fact that you then take prado’s versatility away from the team because he’s forced to play LF full time, and leaves you shuffling parts when Chipper inevitably needs time off
by McCann's the Man on Nov 9, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
How is Prado any less versatile if he’s playing LF? He can easily slide to another position and be replaced in LF by Hinske/Prado.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
If Prado is playing full time LF, then that precludes him from being able to play other positions. I think his greatest value to us would be in playing 45 games or so at third, 15 or so at both 2nd and 1st, and another 30-50 in the corner outfield spots. And your point about him sliding to another position and plugging in Hinske is exactly my point (not sure why it’s Hinske/Prado): I’d rather not run the very high risk of running Hinske/Diaz out in LF on a regular basis but rather have Prado as the number one backup to both left and third
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
If Prado is playing full time LF, then that precludes him from being able to play other positions.
No it doesn’t.
I’d rather not run the very high risk of running Hinske/Diaz out in LF on a regular basis but rather have Prado as the number one backup to both left and third
Well, yes, every team in baseball wishes they could have a bench full of all-star caliber players to plug in in the case of injuries to their all-star caliber starters. Teams can’t afford this, the cold reality is that we probably can’t afford to pay Prado and a starting caliber LFer along with fixing Short Stop.
If you want the chance of moving Prado into a “super utility” role, then you’re going to have to take that chance via a risk/reward signing like Sizemore.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
And this is why...
…Wren talked about looking for a tweener type OF—-one who is good enough to have start 50-60 games or more, but not so good that we are paying for a starting OF that we don’t really need. Tough to find those guys.
You say teams can’t afford this but we certainly seem to be in a position where it is within our budget to do so. Subtract Jurrjens and his salary and along with our budget increases, there seems to be the place for a decently sized contract. If Prado is starting in LF and playing there everyday, it doesn’t mean he can’t physically play 2B and so on but I have a hard time believing Gonzalez will shift him to say second or first for a game rather than just having a backup infielder play and keeping Prado in left. If that’s wrong I’d be very surprised, so that’s what I mean by precluding him from playing a number of positions. His versatility is the most attractive aspect of Prado imo and allowing him to switch to a super utility role for next year would be a major boon to this team.
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
But that's exactly what they did with Prado last year.
He was the starting LF and then played 3rd and when Chipper was out. He didn’t go to second at all, IIRC, but then again, Uggla pretty much played every day. Not sure why you think they wouldn’t do it when they already have.
There's merit to MtM's argument, though
The few days that Uggla was out? Prado stayed in LF and Conrad started at 2nd. Prado was the backup 3B to Fredi, it seems, and played LF any time he wasn’t filling in for Chipper.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I’m kind of curious where he was taking reps in practice.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 10, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
Good money's on
LF with a touch of 3B.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
this is what I’m getting at, I’d have a lot easier time accepting our situation if we were going to put our best pieces out there and instead start Hinske at left with Prado moving to second. You can’t argue Conrad’s glove is what influenced this move either
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 4:25 PM EST up reply actions
The way things have been going around here today
You could argue that Conrad’s glove is what influenced the move, and you could defend it vehemently. ;)
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Or FG just wanted to get Conrad a few starts to try to get his bat going. Or Hinske had a minor injury of his own at that time.
If you don’t think that FG will properly use Prado if he’s starting in LF, then why do you think he’ll properly use Prado off the bench? This is the guy who often called on Julio Lugo to pinch hit because he’s right handed.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
thats because you have to get your pinch hitters
some at bats.. and when uggla is taking off so few games anyway, you might as well let your other bench bat/infielder get those starts
Doesn't really matter what the reason is
If Fredi’s leaving Prado out in LF instead of moving him around (except to fill in for Chipper), it doesn’t matter if he’s doing it because he’s got fantastic reasons or if he’s doing it because he’s afraid the Moon will land on him if he does anything different – it means Prado won’t be a “super-utility” guy, he’ll be a starting LFer who backs up 3B.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
He's the starting LF who backs up 3B...
…not because we don’t see him as a super utility guy, it is because our 2B and 1B (the other positions he plays) pretty much play every day and don’t have time off. If either had a DL stint (especially Uggla b/c Hinske plays first also), Prado would get time there, too.
You say teams can’t afford this but we certainly seem to be in a position where it is within our budget to do so. Subtract Jurrjens and his salary and along with our budget increases, there seems to be the place for a decently sized contract.
A decent sized contract = someone who probably isn’t as good as Prado.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I was thinking Beltran as I said earlier at around 10 million per for 2 years
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 4:23 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think we’d have that much to spend, especially not on one OFer and still have money for a SS and possibly a bullpen arm.
Even if we did have it this year, what about next year?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I’d like to see Hoover or another minor league arm get the bullpen role, SS I’m all for Lowrie from the Sox, and then with Jurrjens salary off the books, I think the money is there if they feel the player is worth it. And next year Chipper’s salary should be gone and iirc Hudson’s an option year so I think the money is there. Of course I don’t get to see the books
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 5:19 PM EST up reply actions
Welp, the Jays are looking for starting pitching.
Yunel and Rasmus would hit the spot about now.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
After what we went through to get rid of Yunel
You think we’re really going to go and bring him back?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Someone needs to slap you in the eye lashes.... Respectfully....
Rasmus, ok… I’m down w/ that… but really… REALLY…. Yunel?… smh. I don’t get it.
Kids today. :-P
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 8, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions
I highly doubt that there's any way to respectfully slap someone in the eyelashes.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I was mostly baiting Justin.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 8, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions
Kind of OT, maybe, but does anyone know what happened with KK?
I know his contract is up and all but I never see him listed on FA lists. I remember he was adament about staying with MLB but let’s face it….
Anybody heard anything about him lately?
Hopefully he figured out a way to get from Pearl back to Japan. But seriously, if we couldn’t garner enough interest to get any ML team take any portion of his contract last year, it would be worse now (if ‘worse’ is even possible) given his AA performance. This chapter is over. He’s done.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Don't think someone might take a flyer on him as an FA?
I haven’t really been following him, but I could see his numbers in AA being due more to a lack of effort than an actual decline in skill.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'd tend to agree
He’s 35 now I think, was let down by MLB, and most importantly, still made $21M bank in the process. I wouldn’t be “available” anymore either.
by crimsonqueen9 on Nov 10, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions
JJ, Randy Delgado and Zeke Spruill to Texas for Jurickson Profar, Christian Villanueva and Jacob Skole.
I just don’t know where this is going at all….
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Okay, but what in the heck would be the purpose of burning Jurrjens for a prospect that’s at least 1 1/2 years away if not 2 – 2 1/2? I’m all for unreasonable rosterbation, but at least have a point to what you’re doing.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
It makes sense to me.
We have the money to fill any holes created and get a huge SS prospect. We then make other moves to improve for 2012 with the money saved. And I am not sure it would create that many holes—-we’d still have Hanson, Hudson, Minor, Teheran, Beachy, Medlen, etc.
That all being said, there are two problems with the idea: 1. why trade for a prospect when you want to win now and 2. I don’t see the Rangers trading Profar, period.
The problem #1 is my major issue with this. If we had someone lined up to play SS, that’d be fine to burn our JJ bullet on a Profar, but we don’t right now, and I have a feeling JJ will be used to acquire that person
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2011 10:20 AM EST up reply actions
That makes sense, but...
…I don’t see anybody worth trading for who we can likely get for JJ who will be any better than the slag that is available on the free agent market. Maybe a Lowrie, but he’s too good to be a short term option. I guess perhaps Scutaro, but I would want more for JJ than him.
Lowrie can = short and long term
At SS this year, then to 3B when Chipper retires and pastornicky/simmons are ready.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Is someone tooting my horn here...
Is the Great Mr. Sanchez on the Lowrie bandwagon!? :-D Super. I’m starting an official petition.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 9, 2011 4:44 PM EST up reply actions
is lowrie actually that good
to be talking about htis?
his numbers are not overwhelming
I'm not sure
Someone should write a fanpost about the possibility.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
roberty
just. stop.
Jurickson Profar
if Profar’s going in any deal, it’s to get a STUD. a true ace. they didn’t trade him for Grienke, but they’ll do it for JJ? please.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 12, 2011 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
Greetings from a Cardinals fan
As you may or may not know, my team has an abysmal middle infield (with the exception of Furcal, if he resigns). We don’t have a lot of money to spend (unless Pujols walks) so the best way to upgrade would be through a trade. I know your Braves are shopping Martin Prado and I was wondering what you guys think would be a fair trade for a guy like him. Obviously we’re just fans, so it’s not like we need to “sell” eachother on any trades. I was just hoping to get a discussion going so I could better understand what the Braves org thinks Prado is worth. As a starting point, here’s John Sickels’ ranking of the Cardinals’ top prospects. As you can see, the Cardinals’ system (like the Braves’) is quite stacked right now. I should go ahead and mention, though, that the first 5 names on the list are all but untouchable.
Some names that might interest Braves fans: Zack Cox was a first round pick last year and considered the best college bat in the draft class. He’s hit well, though not eye-poppingly at every stage in the minors. I’m not sure if the Braves have an heir in line for Chipper, but Cox certainly looks like a future big league bat and he’ll stick at 3rd. Matt Carpenter is also a very good looking 3B who has been blocked by Freese. He doesn’t hit for a ton of power (.160ish ISO in the minors), but has outstanding plate discipline (15.7 BB% last year at AAA). I know the Braves have great pitching, but Jordan Swagerty is the kind of guy every org would want. He’s got an electric arm and has moved very quickly through the system. They’ve given him a look as a starter but he’s probably a reliever going forward. He could close on a normal team, but behind Kimbrel and Venters he’d just be another (probably dominant) setup guy.
So what do you guys think? Any names that jump out at you?
Moving Prado...
…would create multiple holes on our major league roster as he is the starting left fielder and the primary backup infielder (and with Chipper at third, he gets plenty of time there). I really doubt we would trade him for prospects; we would want major league players. I am not sure I see a good fit without a third team involved (who might want prospects).
Makes sense
How much do you think the Braves would be willing to give up to land Allen Craig? He’s young, under team control until 2017 and a sure fire bet to be an above average corner OF (possibly an All Star). I’d hate to see him go, but I think he might have more value on a team that needs OF talent now. It’d be shame to see him struggling for playing time in 2012 like he was in 2011.
Not a prospect
If Prado/Jurrjens are moved, a MLB SS or OF will be part of the return, not just prospects.
I’m not a Cox fan at all, and saying the top 5 are untouchable would be very, very, very poor business, not to mention incorrect. I’m quite certain the Cardinals would drop a pitching prospect for a proven, productive hitter, as would any team in the majors, nearly regardless of how highly touted that pitching prospect is. The story is already out that Wren is looking for a HUGE prospect haul for Jurrjens if he doesn’t get back an MLB starting SS/OF, so I’d assume to even come to the table on Prado without giving up a major league player, you’d be talking one of the top 3 pitchers in that list plus more. Sounds crazy, I’m sure, but a pitching prospect in trade talks has infinitely less value than a hitter who’s done it at the MLB level.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
Makes sense that the Braves would be looking for ML talent
It’s possible that the Cardinals could dangle Allen Craig, but he’s worth quite a bit more than Prado (IMO) because he’s under team control until 2017 and is a great all around hitter (.399 wOBA in 2011). He would look great in the Braves outfield, but it would take a lot to move him as he’s probably a big part of the Cardinals plans if Pujols leaves or Berkman leaves after next season.
No offense, but it’s kind of silly to suggest a guy like Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez (“plus more”) could be a reasonable trade for a 2B who produced 1.6 WAR last year and is under contract for just 2 years. That’s not too different from me saying we’ll give you Jon Jay for Julio Teheran. Let’s keep it realistic.
That’s very realistic in trade value of hitting prospects vs. pitching prospects. Pitching prospects completely flop (even stud ones) very often, so their trade value is much lower.
I would not say Craig is worth more than Prado at all, based on Prado’s versatility and past performance. Prado was a top-10 MVP vote getter his last full season at 2B.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions
C'mon man I'm not the Cardinals GM
You don’t have to trick me into accepting a deal. I’m just trying to talk objectively. In what bizzare universe is Craig worth less than Prado? Especially to the Braves, who need a guy exactly like Craig. He produced 1 more WAR than Prado last season in less than 40% of the plate appearances. His rate stats would have translated to 7.1 WAR in 600PAs (which would have placed him 5th among all OF based on the chart at the top of this thread), and he’s under team control for the next 5 seasons. If you’re honestly saying that you’d rather have Martin Prado starting in LF for the Braves next year than Allen Craig, then this conversation isn’t going anywhere, and I’m sorry I’ve wasted your time.
I'm not buying Craig as all that yet
he had a great season, but in a small sample (as we’ve seen with Matt Diaz several times). His only other year in the bigs saw a sub .300 obp and not that strong a production. Craig may be a potential high caliber slugger for a corner OF spot, or he could be off a career year he’s never likely to come close to duplicating. Prado has too much proven production to be worth that straight up. Add a solid prospect too, and then it’d be easier to consider imo.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
How dare you! You’re only allowd to look at Prado’s worst year against Craig’s best! All other data is irrelevant!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 9, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
His "only other season" consisted of 120 PAs with a BABIP over 60 points below what he did in the minors
Despite a ridiculously high (roughly 20% IIRC) LD rate. It was a very unlucky cup of coffee. He didn’t get an extended look until this season. Besides, he’s mashed at every level of the minors. Nothing he did in 2011 was out of line with what he’s done his entire professional career. The BABIP will likely come down somewhat (though his .344 in 2011 was lower than his 2009 and 2010 minor league numbers), and I’m not saying he’s a legitimate 7 WAR guy (obviously), but predicting 4 WAR/season over the next 5 years seems like a very conservative guess if he gets a full time job.
It’s silly to think about the trade scenario regardless, as I think the Cards would have to be blown away to trade Craig, but I’m legitimately surprised you guys don’t see the value that I do in him. All indications (major and minor league track record, scouting reports) say he’s at least a .280 BA, 25 HR guy easily, with considerable upside. I’m shocked you guys wouldn’t take 5 years of that over 2 years of (hopefully) Prado’s 2010 season.
You obviously are not familiar with the Braves
The Hall of Fame 3B they have? He playes 120ish games a season. That leaves 42 where a capable infielder is needed, which is where Prado gains a TON of value for the Braves. Craig doesn’t return that same value as he’s very poor in the infield.
I would never extrapolate rate stats to utilize a point. A guy has a full-time resume to discuss when he’s had a full-time season. Until that point, he’s a “I hope he can do that over a whole year” guy.
The Braves see a lot of value in Prado, and they’d ask for a significant return for him. You obviously see high value in him, or you wouldn’t be inquiring of his value.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 9, 2011 11:44 AM EST up reply actions
Not necessarily
I think he’s a good buy low candidate, because the Braves seem to be shopping him. If the Cardinals were to acquire him I’d be hoping for his 4.4 WAR 2010 performance, but expecting something more like 2.5-3 WAR. That would be a big upgrade for the Cardinals, because our MIF is so weak and we don’t have money to spend, but it isn’t really “high value”.
He’s being shopped as the 2010 version, not the 2011 version, just FYI.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
which should not be tough to argue
considering the staff infection, the ball to the knee and learning the outfield…
oh, and having to bat behind Bourn, something very new and difficult for him
He's not a good buy low candidate.
We’re listening on him, not trying to get rid of him. Little bit of a difference.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'm not trying to be rude
I know he has value. I know the Braves are a well run club and they’re certainly not going to give away a good player. However, the rate at which his name is popping up on MLBTR (and the fact that they literally used the term “buy low” to describe him) led me to believe that the Braves were actively shopping him.
Let’s be clear though, I’m not saying I want my team to acquire him because I think he’s extremely talented and going to put up a monster year. I think he would be an upgrade primarily because we’re so terrible at second base. If you guys don’t think he’ll get moved for less than an Allen Craig type, he’s not getting moved.
I'm not trying to be rude either
I’m just letting you know that he’s probably not the bargain buy that some people seem to be treating him as. He had a pretty debilitating injury and was somewhat obviously given bad direction on how to handle himself at the plate this year. Odds are real good that he’s going to bounce back to something close to ‘09/’10 form.
I don’t know enough about Craig, tbh, to evaluate what kind of deal that would be, and I’m also a little to busy and/or lazy to look up Craig’s numbers. I know we’re looking for a good return on what we expect to be something closer to 2010 Prado than 2011 Prado, though.
The “they’re shopping Prado” bit probably came out of the fact that we were trying to talk our way into a deal that would get us Myers from the Royals that may have included Prado, but the deal either fell through or wasn’t really for consideration in the first place (depending on who you ask). From what I can tell with the way MLBTR works, once somebody’s name is mentioned, they get attached to all kinds of stuff. :)
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
In risk adjusted value, Prado and Craig are likely pretty equal. That being said we’d probably send over a midlevel prospect or two and/or cash in a deal I would imagine..
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 9, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Your are overplaying Craig and unplaying Prado here.
Craig has a nice bat, but isn’t particularly athletic or a good fielder. He’s also only less than a year younger than Prado and is already 27, so there isn’t much room for projecting future growth there. And calling Prado a “1.6 WAR” guy is very misleading given that he put up 4.4 WAR in 2010 and 3.2 WAR in 2009. The team control time is in Craig’s favor, but that’s about it.
And, yes, I’d rather have Prado than Craig in LF in 2011—-Prado can fill in a third for Chipper when he is hurt and has a better track record of success, plus he is a better fielder. I don’t think 27 year olds with less than 400 major league plate appearances have the trade value that you think they do.
By necessity, not skill
He was not, is not, and will not be a 3B. The only infield position he may play is 1B, and he’d be an average defender there at best.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Haha I'm glad you're such an expert on his track record
For the record, though, he was considered a below average 3B defensively, but by no means a butcher. He was moved to the OF primarily because he was blocked at 3B.
I've been following prospects for some time
I’m by no means an expert, but I have been following Craig for some time. He and Freese had similar track records and progression, but Freese is considered an above average skillset defensively at 3B while Craig was considered a future 1B his whole minor league career. No prospect person I follow closely (Sickels, Goldstein, BA’s staff) ever saw a major league capable third baseman. He was always seen as a bat that you’d put at a corner OF or 1B spot to hide him as much as possible.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Well at any rate he's an OF now, who can spot start at both infield corners
Neither of our teams even need a 3B, so I’m not sure why we’re focusing on this. Let me clarify something though, do you prefer Prado to Craig because he can take some starts at 3B and play better defense (Fangraphs isn’t a big fan of Prado’s defense but I agree he probably has a slight edge. Craig isn’t a bad defensive OF though)? Or is it because there’s something you don’t trust about Craig’s bat vs. Prado’s? Because Prado’s highest wRC+ was 123 in 250 PAs in 2008. Craig has topped that every single year of his career other than 2006 when he was drafted (120 wRC+ that year). I don’t know who could question Craig’s bat.
I'm not questioning the bat
The Braves have Prado in line to move to 3B when Chipper retires. Craig simply cannot do that defensively. It’s much easier to track down a viable bat in LF than a viable bat at 3B.
Prado has done it longer at the MLB level with the bat, though, so I’d definitely prefer him over Craig if I were trying to pencil in expected production from a player. Craig has more upside with the bat, while Prado has the higher floor for expectation and has the ability to play 3B in the future, which is what the team sees in him.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
Fair enough on the 3B front
But as for expected production as opposed to upside I have to strongly disagree with you. Everything about their careers up to this point suggests that Craig will hit for a comparable average next year with a similar walk rate but far, far more power. The fact that Prado has more ABs at the major league level doesn’t change this. When guy A has outhit guy B every single year of his career you don’t assume guy B will hit better just because he’s been around longer.
You're not comparing apples to apples
Player A/Player B
Age 22: AA/AAA/MLB // A+/AA
Age 23: AAA/MLB // AA
Age 24: MLB // AAA
Age 25: MLB // AAA/MLB
Age 26: MLB // AAA/MLB
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
True. It's not a fair comparison
I don’t know why Craig was ignored by scouts and not drafted until he was 22, but he didn’t exactly languish in the minors. He mashed every year. Looking at both players’ careers though do you honestly think their histories support your conclusion that Prado’s bat is more of a sure thing at this point? Allen Craig has had exactly one stretch in his professional career where he didn’t hit, and it lasted 120 PAs (and, as I mentioned, featured a bizarre disconnect between BABIP and LD%).
Your being very generous with your definition of “professional career”. Prado has more than six times the number of Major League PAs. You can quote minor league stats all you want, but they mean next to nothing, there are any number of minor league “MVPs” that will never so much as sniff the Bigs.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 9, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
I mean... not really
“Professional career” has a very specific definition. Everything is professional once you’re getting paid for it. Obviously we all know there’s a big difference between the minors and majors, but I’m not sure what your problem with my statement was.
To answer your question:
What do I think in their careers makes Prado’s bat more of a sure thing than Craig’s? That Prado has had two full very good seasons in the major leagues while Craig has had one good stretch of 219 plate appearances (3/8 season or so) in the major leagues. I find that to be a huge advantage to Prado.
by cavebird on Nov 10, 2011 10:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Where does projection for improvement....
…come from with a guy who is already 27? If Craig were 23, that would be a little bit different.
Where did I project improvement?
Hell, I’m projecting a decline. Allen Craig had a better wOBA and wRC+ than Albert Freaking Pujols last year. I don’t think he can do that again. As I said, if he kept that up he’d have been worth 7.1 WAR. The question is how much he’ll decline. I don’t think anything about his season was radically different from what he was doing in the minor leagues. If I had to guess what he would do in a full season I would conservatively say .280/.340/.500 with 25-30 HR and 4.5ish WAR. I wouldn’t be the slightest bit shocked if he topped that though.
It’s also worth pointing out that Craig’s 2.6 WAR last year would have placed him 2nd behind McCann among Braves batters, and he did that in 219 PAs. It goes without saying he also would have had the highest wRC+ and wOBA on the team (well, except for Antoan Richardson in 4 PAs lol).
Now you are using what we call in my fantasy league...
…Kendrick Math Principles. It was based on one year (or two years) where Kendrick started ridiculously hot and people would project his numbers to a full season, which were of course ridiculous numbers. What you are projecting is not a decline, it is a reversion to the mean, and honest, I don’t think you are reverting enough, but of course you never know until he actually gets full-time playing time.
Lol
You can’t convince this crowd to trade Prado. For some reason Prado brings out the homer in 90% of talking chop. For what it’s worth I would trade 2 years of Prado for 6 years of Craig in a heartbeat.
by In a minute I might be right on Nov 18, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions
FYI
Ran this same question by a number of other sports forums, and none of them (NONE!) would trade Prado straight up for Craig. All of them, minus the Cardinals forum questioned, would not do the deal on the Prado side.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 19, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
How about this?
Let’s forget Craig and forget prospects. I’ll give you Prado straight up for two games in the 2011 standings.
To everyone on this subthread...
Sorry for distracting you. I came here to talk about Prado but within 3 comments found myself defending the legitimacy of Allen Craig’s 2011 campaign. Since you guys are Braves fans, I’m sure you don’t really care about whether or not Craig is legit. Sorry if I came of hostile or defensive at any point (if you couldn’t tell, I’m a HUGE fan of Craig. I think he’s the 4th best pure hitter in our system after Pujols, Holliday and Berkman).
As some people pointed out, the Cardinals and Braves don’t really match up all that well on a Prado trade. I’ll have to seek my above average 2B elsewhere. Best of luck to you guys. Lots of Braves are due for bounceback seasons. I’d put money on you guys making the playoffs.
How bout this
Braves get:
Carlos Martinez
Zack Cox
Oscar Tavares
Cardinals get:
Jair Jurrjens
Martin Prado
This would be a good deal for both teams seeing that the Cards may lose Jackson, Wainwright may not be back at the start of the season and the Cards need a 2B.
gotta imagine the braves would want someone who would help out the 2012 braves if theyre giving up both jurrjens and prado
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 12:23 AM EST up reply actions
Not really
We have plenty of pitching we could then sign a Beltran/Sizemore/Willigham/Cuddyer for LF, Sign Barmes, add a couple bench bats and RPs and we’ll be set.
Ooof.
That is not a good idea. Why get a free agent to replace Prado who is either overpaid (Beltran) or not any better (Sizemore/Willingham/Cuddyer) and does not have the ability to play third when Chipper is hurt (all of them)? It seems illogical to me, especially when the main target is a good pitching prospect and the Braves have tons of good pitching prospects already.
Miller
but i love that return for those two. we’d need a ML player, though.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 12, 2011 3:16 AM EST up reply actions
Seth Smith
Should be our new LF. Only downside is LH. Platoon him with Prado and allow Prado to UTIL other games.
Demolishes righties (.893 OPS), play solid LF defense (9.2 UZR/150 Career), 15 homer average, will steal 5-10 bags, under control 3+ years. His overall .830 OPS is better than Swisher, Morrison, Cruz, Cuddyer, Willingham.
Rockies need pitching and have a few young OF specs ready to take over. DOB brought the idea up earlier.
I just had a really interesting thought
J.D. Drew. He’s coming off of a terrible year, which should drive his price down. He’s about to be 36, which will drive the price down. He’s underrated because he generates a lot of value from his ability to get on base (driving the price down) and he’s perceived as not being that strong a fielder, even though he’s solid (at least).
I’d take him at 2 years, $4.5 million, and bet that he’d take it since no one else would give him two years.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
not a bad idea
but our lineup would be filled with lefties
How about this guy for LF? He was just posted. Don’t think he’ll be too expensive.
Can play CF also, but below-average arm.
I find it hilarious for some reason
that BR treats NPB as “minor league play.” Dunno why, but that cracks me up.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I know
Like I said, dunno why it cracks me up.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Posted players....
…tend to cost way too much because you have to pay both the team and the player. I also think that we have pretty much burnt our bridges with Japanese players after the KK debacle.
I’m sure every team will submit a bid, even if it’s way lowball.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 10, 2011 11:19 AM EST up reply actions
Pretty stellar numbers, but he’s 28 and playing at essentially a AAA equivalent. Not sure how that will translate.
To frame it another way, Fukudome’s numbers were slightly better in the same league (well, the one year they showed), but he was also a little older at the time.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 10, 2011 10:56 AM EST up reply actions
This guy’s also posting this year, and he’s probably going to cost a little less than Aoki in posting. I like his numbers more, and, he’s apparently a pretty talented Defensive SS, which would let us keep Prado in LF..
I know, I know, Atlanta burned its Japanese bridges with that whole KK debacle, but, he looks like a more exciting and potentially better second tier SS prospect than anyone else on the market.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=nakaji001hir
by TheMattHatter on Nov 16, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Also, to clarify, I said “would let us keep Prado in LF” not because I am, in any way at all, advocating moving him to SS. I meant it as in, we won’t have to move him in a trade for a SS.
by TheMattHatter on Nov 16, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
what would it realistically take to get Stephen Drew from Arizona?
by McCann's the Man on Nov 10, 2011 4:28 PM EST reply actions
King?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
lol
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 10, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely way more than he's earned in value!
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 10, 2011 6:22 PM EST up reply actions
WARNING: Public Intoxication can lead to this:
Friends don’t let friends blog drunk – it ends up on the Internet, and then you lose all respect. Wait a sec – it’s the bleacher report…. never mind, it’s wayyyyy too late for this guy.
The Best Case Scenario
Boston sends Carl Crawford, Jed Lowrie, Bryce Brentz and Sean Coyle, with cash [$50million], to Atlanta.
Atlanta sends Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado to Boston.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
But it's the Bleacher Report
It would have to be a lot worse than that before I assumed the guy wasn’t sober.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'd agree, that is the Braves best case
why the Red Sox would do something that stupid, we couldn’t say, but the Braves would love it.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
They'd do it because
ZOMGZ THEY NEED PITCHING MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE IN THE WORLD
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
WHADAYA YELLIN’ AT?!!?!!?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
Take out Crawford and the money
and it kinda works. Not really, but Lowrie and two strong prospects (at least looking at their b-r pages makes them seem like strong prospects) for Jurrjens or Jurrjens and Prado, doesn’t seem like an outrageous return.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
But since we can clearly get Crawford + $50MM + Lowrie + prospects
Why would we settle for less?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
True
and just imagine the lineup
Bourn
Crawford
Chipper
Heyward
Uggla
McCann
Lowrie
Freeman
That’s Yankeeesque.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 11, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions
Any lineup where Freeman is logically the 8th hitter
is going to come with my full approval.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Yeah, but that's pushing it.
Freeman’s a better hitter than Lowrie. Still….
Agreed....
was just going for that L/R/L/R balance thing.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 11, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
I like the lineup, although I do have 1 question....
Why is Heyward not batting 2nd?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
Cause he''s a middle of the order hitter...
and an RBI producer. Gah.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 11, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions
But
Can he play shortstop? Wait, I’ll go make a FanPost about it. Hold on a minute.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions
they'd do it
to save $$$$$$. Crawford’s got a ton of cash due to him in the coming years.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 12, 2011 3:18 AM EST up reply actions
no, they won't
Crawford’s contract is seven years, $142mill – of which they’ve spent 1 year and $19.5m, leaving 122.5 still to spend. Let’s say, just for kicks and giggles, that they do it and send $50m with him. [And sure: I’d buy in at 6yr/$72m – that’s a good deal]. However…
Boston’s media would then FOREVER remember the “Carl Crawford 1yr, $69.5 million contract – the biggest boondoggle in sports history”.
Even if they think they screwed up, no team would pull the plug that fast.. No way.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
by carpengui on Nov 12, 2011 8:08 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
You sir
Get a rec just for using boondoggle in a sentence.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
OK, this is probably the most hysterical, unrealistic trade in the history of trades. Ahhhh Bleacher Report – you never cease to amaze me.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 8:22 AM EST up reply actions
Their “realistic” trade scenario was getting blasted even more…. thought it would be good for a couple of laughs while we await some actual news – about anything.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Anytime I’m feeling down, BR has an innate ability to cheer me up. I can just sit back, read, laugh, and think to myself, I don’t have it so bad…I’m not that much of a moron.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
[Almost 38 yr old] Carroll nearing multi-year deal
Jamey Carroll is nearing a multiyear deal with an unknown team, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (all Twitter links). The Tigers, Rockies, Dodgers and Indians have been mentioned as potential suitors for Carroll, a Millenium Sports Management client who is expected to sign within a few days. The Phillies and Braves have also expressed interest.
I do believe we would all be thunderstruck if the Braves were this unknown team. The only reason I post this, however, is because we tend to negotiate as quietly as possible. But such a signing would be 180° directed away from what we had been hearing for the past month. [quote source: MLBTR]
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Plusses and minuses for the teams cited above:
Tigers. Only if he plays second.
Rockies: Only if he plays second. This would end any idea of a Prado-to-COL trade. Carroll was theirs for 2 years… one good, one Seabass-esque.
Dodgers: would make most sense… but why would they be secretive about it?
Indians. Only if he plays second.
Phillies: Signing Carroll == dumping Rollins.
Atlanta: Signing Carroll multi-year == dumping Pastornicky…and maybe somebody else in the minors. That’s why it truly makes no sense that Atlanta would be into a multi-year SS discussion.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
New info
10:36am: The Blue Jays are showing serious interest in Carroll, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links). Morosi hears that the infielder is “very close” to agreeing to a deal.
I guess that’s for second base, too.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Guess that depends on where they want to play B. Lawrie (or however you spell his name). He came up as a 2nd baseman, originally, but played 3B all last season.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions
Suggestion for Boston and Philly
Red Sox: sign Madsen
Philadelphia: sign Papelbon.
Be done with it. Nobody else cares.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
4. ?
5. Profit
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 11, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions
Latest on Prado - Saturday morning (MLBTR)
The Rockies have expressed interest in free agent outfielder Grady Sizemore, reports Troy Renck of The Denver Post. The team is casting a wide net as they look for offensive help, but Renck says they are not expected to aggressively pursue Sizemore until they exhaust all trade options with the Braves for Martin Prado.
There are two obvious things to glean from this snippet. Obvious, but I’ll write them out anyway:
1. The Rockies really do want Odarp. “Wide net” or not, he’s the ONLY name we’ve heard linked to them – except now for Sizemore.
2. The Rockies value Odarp much more than they do Grady Sizemore. That should tell us something.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
On 2...
I took it as they have an excess of OFs already. If they move one for Prado, then Sizemore comes in to fill that void. If not, there’s no room for Sizemore and no need to spend the money on him.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 12, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Purple Row is split a bit on whether Prado would play outfield or second base.
Personally, I think Sizemore is an odd choice for them — they need somebody young and fast to cover that expansive outfield.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Unless they are going to change their minds on Fowler
Then I hope we can tell them they’ve already exhausted all options. And even then I’m not really sold.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 12, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Chase Headley
Just think of all the Blazing Saddles jokes...
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
My mind
is a raging torrent, flooded with rivulets of thought cascading into a waterfall of rosterbatory alternatives.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I'm with you all the way on this one.
Chase Headley has some ugly home/away splits:
Home BA 2008-2011: .230, .208, .237, .243
Away BA 2008-2011: .301, .305, .289, .330
Home OPS 2008-2011: .665, .651, .635, .674
Away OPS 2008-2011: .831, .803, .766, .864
His K% has been improving, fairly consistently high BABIP (Away only), good in high leverage situations, is a switch hitter, and plays both 3B and OF (third base better). If Prado can be moved for a good package, I would pursue San Diego strongly for this guy — perhaps for Jurrjens straight up. He’ll be a star if he can get away from PetCo.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
San Diego already came out and said he isn’t available.
by drumzalicious on Nov 16, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Can we afford Rollins? Maybe.
According to Cot’s, the Braves opening day payroll in 2011 was just over $91M. Rumor has it, payroll will increase “slightly”. Is $95M a reasonable assumption? We have about $79M committed to Chipper, Uggla, McCann, Bourn, Prado, Hudson, Jurrjens, Diaz, Hinske, Ross and O’Flaherty, and the $10M to Lowe. 11 palyers
Trade Jurrjens for a bench guy, a good prospect and get some salary relief. Considering the bench guy, we’d save about $4M. So, $75M committed, still 11 players.
Freeman, Heyward, Kimbrel, Venters, Martinez, Medlen, Varvaro, Beachy, Hanson, Minor, Teheran (replacing JJ), there’s 11 more averaging about $450,000 each, Or right at $5M for the 11, making 22 players for roughly $80M, needing 1 reliever, 1 bench guy and a SS.
Internal options could get us a reliever and bench guy for $1M. Signing them might cost $3M. Either way, we could have as much as $12-14M for a SS.
Jimmy Rollins made $8-8.5M each of the last 5 years. He wants 4 years + an option. Would $11M per get him?
Bourn CF L
Rollins SS S
Chipper 3B S
McCann C L
Uggla 2B R
Freeman 1B L
Prado LF R
Heyward RF R
Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor, Teheran for the rotation
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
11M per year should do be able to sign Rollins, but I’m not sure if he wants money or years. Also, that rotation is extremely talented but if an injury or two happens…..Let’s just say I rather keep JJ
We’d still have Medlen, Delgado and possibly Vizcaino as spot starters. I’m a wierdo, I’d rather have Jurrjens than Hanson, but Jurrjens is the money maker.
I just read the bit about Rollins wanting 4 years + an option. I’d imagine the Phillies will try to keep him, but I’m struggling to see the Braves be competitive with the Marlins and Nats planning on spending a good bit of money. We don’t need a half-assed SS, we need a total package SS.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Then why Rollins?
He’s definitely not a “total-package” SS. Despite his HR numbers being inflated due to park, he’s not a power hitter. He gets caught 1/4 of his steal attempts, which isn’t horrid, but it’s nothing to write home about. He’s never hit over .300 or had an OBP over .350 in his entire career in a full season. He’s beyond his prime, and the heavy playing he did at his peak has taken its toll on his body, so you’d need a very good backup. Also, depending on which metrics you trust, he’s league average on most defensive metrics, and even below average in some. No way, no how should we invest $11M for anything more than a one season with option, and no way should we do 4 years plus option for anything over $6-7M per. I don’t think either way would satisfy him, regardless of whether his main focus is money or years.
BTW, a bit of an aside, but you don’t have any arbitration figured into your money.
Hey! I’m new.
by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 12, 2011 6:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Arb figures
I had Bourn at $7M, EOF at $2M and Jurrjens at $5M,
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Oh
And Reyes just seems out of the question. Rollins is the total package when compared to the likes of Wilson and most other, more affordable SS’s.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
But he requires 3-5 years
and Wren doesn’t want longer than 1 yr with Pastornicky and Simmons on the door step.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
This confuses me.
We have options like Lipka and Salcedo who have higher ceilings than Pastronicky. If we can get someone like Rollins, and I still believe thats a big if, why wouldn’t we do it? We can see if Pastronicky works out in a utility role, or even use him as a bargaining chip in a trade package.
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 12, 2011 8:16 PM EST up reply actions
Salcedo won't stick at short
and Lipka is a long way away
I think Simmons is the real talent, and Pastornicky is really pretty solid.
Look at Ozzie Guillen’s numbers – I bet both of these guys could put up better numbers than any of his gagillion year career – (How did he stay in the league? and how was he ROY?)
Agree
I see Pastornicky as more of a MI utility guy than a MLB SS. Simmons is 2 years away IF his bat plays in the upper minors. Lipka has been moved to LF, Salcedo to 3B and LF might be in his future.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Yeah
That’s a sticking point.
The Marlins rumors are what got me thinking about Rollins. We were dead meat against the NL East in Sept. Signing or trading for a half-assed SS isn’t going to change that if the Marlins have Buerhle and Josh Johnson pitching and Stanton, Morrison, Reyes, Hanley and more at the plate. The Nats won’t be sitting on their hands either.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
its so awesome
the braves are on the verge of having arguably their best teams in a generation
and so are the Marlins and Nats..
Poor Phillies, they are really gonna be eating dick in a couple years
Well said.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Has to be a short generation...
…for the Marlins to have their best team of it. They have won two World Series in the last 20 years.
Wren has already said that we aren’t going out and grabbing a longterm SS. I’m guessing we get someone like Aybar who’s a FA after 2012. Gives Pastornicky and Simmons another year to grow. One could be the SS and the other the 3B by 2013 who knows. Wren just doesn’t want to block them.
by drumzalicious on Nov 12, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
Aybar isn’t a bad idea. If it happens. Mid .270’s batting, .320ish OB%, gets caught stealing about 40% of the time though. Most of the names I’m hearing do not strike me as good enough for the Braves to keep up with the Phillies and possibly the Marlins and Nats.
If Pastornicky works out, great, I think he might be a better MI utility guy than a starting SS. He had a very good 2011 in AA and 26 or 27 games in AAA. Before that, his bat wasn’t all that special. Simmons is probably 2 years away, starting AA in 2012, they are hoping his bat will play in the upper minors. Neither has any power to speak of.
If we go for a LF this off season, it probably costs us Prado. Who backs up Chipper? Conrad? For 40-50 games, no thanks. Chipper would probably refuse to take a day off and fall over dead by August.
Sorry, the more I think about it, the less I like the plan for a bandaid short stop. Maybe Rollins is too old and too expensive for too long. Probably stays in Philly anyway. I guess I disagree with Wren on this one, I think we need a strong SS for 2-3 years, not just one. Short stop is probably the most important defensive position on the field. It’s just not the place to go cheap.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
What happens if Pastornicky has another great season at AAA then we have blocked him and could have saved money.
by drumzalicious on Nov 13, 2011 11:29 AM EST up reply actions
Beats the hell out of me! What happens if his speed continues to decline affecting his range and his arm turns out to be better suited to 2B than SS? If he works out, that’s great, we trade one of them away I guess.
I just think going cheap at SS is a flawed idea. Gonzo was cheap. We got good D, how was his O?
Our division is about as tough as any in MLB. We were good in 2011, but in Sept, vs primarily NL East opponents for the entire month, we stunk. A historical stunkage. The Nats and Marlins are not sitting on their hands. They’re actually trying to get better, more relevant. I’m crazy about Wren and his plans, I just disagree with this one. With Uggla at 2B and Chipper at 3B, we need a good defensive SS between them. And we obviously need help offensively. Hence, in my opinion, we need a proven, substancial SS. Not a band aid.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Are we really worried about blocking a guy who isn’t even a top 100 prospect? Really? Really?!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
yes.
Especially when we don’t really have the money to afford a top SS. He could be at least league average for cheaper.
by drumzalicious on Nov 14, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
He could also be below league average for all we know.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions
We don’t need cheap, we need good.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions
BIG NO on J-Roll
Rollins is done in philly, publicly came out and said he believes in “no home-town discount” and he wants 4 yrs + the optioin and philly has said they wont go more than 3 yrs… If everyone thinks chipper misses alot of time (which he does) imagine that at SS also, not to mention his HUGE decline in production and his legs are shot as far as speed.. Overall im saying hes not worth the yrs he’s DEMANDING and he has stated he’s a west coast guy loves the 49ers and SF needs a SS has $
by PhillyBrave on Nov 16, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions
question
why don’t CF/SS w bats that profile as backups learn the other position? Pretty much every team has a backup SS and a backup CF who are the weakest offensive players on the team. If that weak offensive player could at least play both, then they would be able to affird a team a backup hitter
full circle...
To have the best team we possibly can next year: Keep JJ
Rotation:
Hudson
Hanson
JJ
Beachy
Teheran (Sorry Minor – you should be the odd man out before JJ)
By keeping Minor in AAA, we can manipulate his starts so he is able to pitch for us when we play teams struggling against lefties. Also, as always, it’s inevitable that one of our 5 will go down.
We should NOT be bringing up 2 rookies to start the season if we are serious. I am not excited about another slow start.
Keep Prado in left and to back up third (be honest, not 2nd, SS or 1st unless a long term replacement is needed) AND stop calling him Odarp, its a bullshit nick name w/o affection. In no way does the sound of that name comes across as one given to someone you think is awesome. It sounds like people are making fun of him every time they say the name.
The SS we bring on must be a high OBP guy, preferably RH. The hole in our lineup is the 2 spot. No one on our team should be batting there unless it’s chipper, but then we don’t have a 3 hole hitter. You can’t put McCann there, I don’t want a 3 hole hitter that qualifies for the shift. It needs to be Heyward or Freeman, but neither of them are ready for that. It could be Prado, but he isn’t ready to start the season there either. It is also obvious that Prado’s natural approach is not designed to hit behind a base stealer. WE NEED A SS WHO CAN BAT SECOND!
1. L Bourn
2. R/S SS
3. S Chipper
4. L McCann
5. R Uggla
6. L Freeman
7. R Prado
8. L Heyward (OBP around .700 for Heyward batting 8th)
We should pick up a 4th OF who can also be a RH pinch hitter and backup for Heyward against tough lefties (or Diaz should be Diaz). Constanza should be our 5th OF, CF back up, Pinch Runner off the bench, and ready to start when we want to attack a starting pitcher with speed and infield hits. If we want a power LHB off the bench, it’s Hinske. Constanza offers avg and obp from the left. To be as well rounded as possible, we need a guy who can hit for average, power, and OBP against lefties. Honestly, I am not sure there is a guy out there as promising as Diaz. I say we let him compete against our minor leaguers. If he isn’t looking good (I bet he will) we should make an early trade. But it is ridiculous to trade for exactly what Diaz is w/o giving him a chance (especially considering how much I want his ethic on the squad).
bench
Hinske
Diaz/ RH outfield bat
Constanza (wish we could make him a back up SS)
Ross
SS backup (not a minor leaguer who is used to playing every game, AKA Pastornicky)
This leaves us with options mid season.
IF Minor and Delgado are solid and hot mid season, we could trade JJ, Hanson, Minor or Delgado for our biggest hole in the field. Hopefully it isn’t Heyward or Prado, hopefully it isn’t our new short stop, hopefully it isn’t our RH 4th OF, hopefully it isn’t an injury. It will likely be one of those. If all of those perform how we hope (can’t expect it) we can trade our worst pitcher and bring up a young ace or trade for a back up SS w some offensive upside.
If we keep both Prado and Jurrjens, I don’t think we can afford a SS with a bat good enough to bat second.
That obviously depends on what the opening day payroll will actually be. Using the numbers I posted above, 2011 opening day = $91M (per Cot’s), assume with mystery increase 2012 OD payroll = $95M
11 salaries committed = $79M (includes $10M to Lowe)
11 league minimum = ~4.5M still needing 1 pen arm, 1 bench guy and a SS
If the pen arm is Hoover, Gearrin, or Vizcaino, add $425,000
If the bench guy is Constanza, Pastornicky, etc, add $425,000
Total is now ~$84.4M needing a SS
We could keep Prado and Jurrjens and add a $10M SS
If $95M is too high, or we get a more expensive utility guy, drop that $10M accordingly. But if there is any increase in salary at all, we should be able to keep them both and get a $6M SS.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
Minor is almost certain to start the season as our 5th starter. Manipulating his starts like that is kind of ridiculous and overkill IMO. Teheran is more raw than Minor and is the one that needs the extra time in AAA.
by drumzalicious on Nov 13, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions
I don't agree with this way of seeing Teheran
I think it’s the product of tidyness that people think this. If Minor was not around, people would be biting at the bit to see him start the season on the rotation. He was the minor league mvp, the first pitcher in forever, he has nothing left to prove. Let him work out his stuff in the majors, he has earned it, he is ready for that, and what’s more, dude deserves a full rookie season. If he is a generational talent, he should get a full rookie year. Besides, it’s unlikely Minor would put up better numbers anyway. I think you take the wind from his sails and he gets bored and annoyed if he goes back to AAA after what he did last season. That should not be done to him, if he is our best guy, we should be nurturing him to greatness and not worrying about the other pitchers. Nurturing him to greatness is bringing him up right now. Trade Minor for a 10M SS with good range who can bat second.
For the record
I think it’s a better idea to trade Minor than JJ, otherwise we start the season with two rookies in the rotation, and we have Minor, Beachy, Teheran and Delgado all getting raises at the same time. one of these 4 will not be on the team at this point, that’s almost certain. This is the better year to trade one than later. Personally I see Delgado with more upside and Minor as more ready, so he is the one to go.
Rookies: they always suck
relying on them is bad.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
hahaha
I am a fan of rookies, I’m just not sure if it’s the best idea to bring two into the rotation at once. It’s not even innings I’m worried about, Minor is ready for a pretty full load, as are Hudson, JJ, and Hanson.
Then again, if they pushed each other, it could be extremely exciting.
That would be my point, yes.
Not wanting to rely on rookies just because they’re rookies strikes me as being superstitious more than anything else.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I don't think the superstitious is the word for it...
I’d go with cautiously optimistic.
There’s a ton of highly-touted young players, especially pitchers, that simply don’t pan out.
The Braves have had incredible luck the past couple years…let’s not jinx it (ucwatididthar??).
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 14, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
Still, though
not lending any credence whatsoever to their performance, and dismissing them because of their service time alone seems excessive.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Oh, I agree with that.
I don’t know what the failure rate is, but it’s not so terrible that they should be dismissed on that reason alone.
On the other hand, I give Fredi a lot of credit with how he’s handled the rookies on the team…the fact that all seemed to flourish (an incredible feat) is a point lost on many of his haters. We’re going to see the fruits of that later today when the ROY results are released, but I bet no one gives Fredi any credit.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
You keep thinking...
…about having two “rookies” in the rotation (and Minor has pitched enough that he barely is a rookie anymore, but you give no consideration to having five righties in the rotation. Why?
we have had 5 righties in the rotation for years
why is it all the sudden that important? I agree it’s ideal, but how could it be that much more important than performance all the sudden
And we've used rookies in the rotation...
…for the last few years as well. Why is it so important that we do not next year all the sudden?
Teheran's season in AAA
sure doesn’t indicate needing more time there. It’s hard to be better than the best pitcher in the league.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
seeing him pitch in the bigs says to me he needs more time in the minors. he’s essentially a two pitch pitcher right now. He needs to be able to throw any of his pitches for strikes at anytime in the count. He wasn’t doing that up here. He needs to learn to control his changeup and breaking pitch low in the zone.
by drumzalicious on Nov 14, 2011 1:31 AM EST up reply actions
JT put up those numbers in AAA based solely on his stuff. He still has plenty to learn about actual pitching and his breaking stuff could use some work to become more consistent.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
If he's demolishing AAA, though
what’s his incentive to master that stuff?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
You could have said the same thing about Minor last year, he still worked on his stuff down there.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
After all 6 of his games at AAA?
Aside from that, still doesn’t answer the question. Teheran had 25 games of dominance at AAA, so his stuff is working just fine down there. If he’s getting by just fine with what he’s got, why would he have any reason to adjust it?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
no
you let him learn to do certain things down there to help protect his confidence. He’s still quite young and there really isn’t a rush for him to be in our rotation.
by drumzalicious on Nov 14, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions
I needed to do this for some vision...
J. Reyes FA : FA .337/.384/.493/.877
Y. Escobar: Toronto: yeah right .290/.369/.413/.782
E. Bonicacio : Marlins: first year Arb. .296/.360/.393/.753
J Peralta: Detroit : FA/Team O 2 yrs 11m: 299/.345/.478/.824
S. Castro: Cubs. : 425k 2yrs service 307/.341/.432/.773
S. Rollins: FA : FA .268/.338/.399/.736
A. Cabrera. Clvlnd : 2nd yr arb 273/.332/.460/.792
A. Ramirez W. Sox : 4 yrs 6.4 mil .269/.328/.399/.727
R. Andino Baltimor : first year arb. .263/.327/.344/.670
Anyone want to knock off the absolute, unquestioned no chance in hell guys? And that does not include reyes even though it does.
If it doesn't include Reyes
what’s the point in the list?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
If I was gauging the chances on those guys
I’d say all of them hover around 0% chance of being Braves.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
But you can't discount Reyes
even though he’s definitely at or infinitesimally close to zero.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Probably, no one
maybe Erick Aybar. Who knows, but the names you mentioned, absolutely none of them stand more than a 1% chance of becoming Braves.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
So you're saying there's a chance?
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
is there a chance we could get Aybar?
He looks to be in the 325 obp range but with the ability to steal 30 bases, he could be a good hitter there – especially as a switch hitter. His 10 homers last year weren’t bad. He won the GG last year, is he the defender we are looking for?
That's the problem with your previous post willlinn.
The main key to it is getting the mythical SS with a good OBP. (Getting one RH is fairly easy since they all field RH and most hit RH or both.) That player just doesn’t realistically exist among SS’s we might be able to obtain for 2012.
it took me that post to realize that
so that’s kind of devastating.. does that mean we give up on getting a guy that can bat second?
We have several guys who can bat second.
Let’s find a guy that can play shortstop and sorta-kinda hit. I’ll settle for that.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
At SS?
Yes. The guy doesn’t exist outside of Reyes and we aren’t going to pay that money. If he could figure out how to do it, Prado would be a perfect #2 hitter to me; at least his skillset falls into that mold—-solid OBP mostly fueled by hits, good gap power with reasonable HR production, relatively low K rate.
Annual GM meetings start Tuesday in Minnesota
Anybody think we’ll hear anything promising? MLBTR says multiple teams have inquired on Jurrjens and Prado. Colorado is the only one I’ve read being identified.
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
i believe the meetings are in Milwaukee
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Are they not the same?
"First!"...Who gives a damn if you are first
You're thinking of Wisconsin.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
No, you’re thinking of Canada. They’re both Fargo territory to me.
by TheMattHatter on Nov 15, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions
And most of this board is from Alabama for me :p
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 15, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
It's all the Deep South to me
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 16, 2011 4:30 PM EST up reply actions
There are a few oases of culture in the deep south...
…you just have to know where to find them (and then live in them). That way you get the weather and what you are looking for.
Oh, I'm just being a pain
To counter the Great White North comments ;)
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 17, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
New Idea
I mentioned this on the “shortstop” post and said it wasn’t my rosterbatory choice, but just by what FW said and process of elimination that Stephen Drew would be our SS next year. Obviously, and most likely, FW is just talking and is open to other SS options than only one’s through trade and one’s with more than 1 year remaining. But i’ve given it some thought and the deal makes sense. JJ for Drew, straight up.
He has 1 year remaining at $7.75 and an option for $9.1. JJ is going to be paid over $5mil this year. So the cost would only be about what it would cost to re-up AGon.
They have already resigned Bloomquist (2/$3.8) McDonald (2/$3) and Hill (2/$11) and also have Blum and Roberts under contract. I know Roberts is starting at 3B but thats alot of middle IFs with multi year deals. I believe they are already planning on moving Drew.
With Upton, Young, Montero and Goldchmidt in place, it would make sense for a small market team to stock up on good cheap arms. Kennedy, Hudson and JJ would be very appealing to them and I think very likely they’d accept.
If he isn’t extended or option picked up, he’s the one year stop gap. We need to get rid of a pitcher and JJ is very unlikely to be extended beyond next year if he isn’t moved before then. So trading JJ for a 1 year rental isn’t as big of loss as it looks.
If he performs well or if Pastor isn’t ready the option can be picked up and give Simmons 2 years to be ready.
But what if he fits well. He’s from Georgia and might accept an extension at a friendly cost and we’d have out 3B after Chip.
VS RHP
Bourn
Drew
Chip
Mac
Uggs
FF
Prado
Heyward
VS LHP
Bourn
Prado
Chip
Mac
Uggs
FF
Drew
Heyward
what y’all think?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
This isn't new
Drew has been examined, re-examined, and examined in reverse every offseason. The truth is simple – he’s a horrible choice. Two years ago and even last season I would have been okay with him, but here’s the facts: he’s 29 to start 2012, which means he has likely no more physical growth to expect any statistical improvement over what he’s done already. He’s been hitting in a hitter’s ballpark his entire career, yet he’s topped 15 home runs once in his career. He strikes out like a power hitter, but his best slugging tool is his triples. Despite having a knack for triples, he is poor base stealer, with only 20 net steals in his whole career. He’s never topped a 120 OPS+ in any season, and he’s a league-average OBP guy at .330 for his career. He’s had plenty of major league experience to produce growth, and he simply never has, yet he’s getting paid as if he’s a tick behind his divisional counterpart in Colorado. You are on the hook for $13.75M for two years with Drew or $22.4M for three years. For a guy who is a tick below league average defensively and doesn’t provide thunderous offense at the most important defensive position on the field, the Braves should pass.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 14, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
If he could put up a .350 obp
he is as good of an offensive SS as we can get.. maybe I’m wrong.. But I would really like to know who you think is a good idea.
He’s put up a .350 twice in his career, and only once in a full season, however, both of those seasons were fairly BA driven in the OBP, and both seasons had a BABIP 10-20 points over his career average. I would wager we’d be as likely to see .315 as .350 for Drew’s OBP in 2011, when he actually does return. That’s another point that no one mentions is that Drew will most likely not be ready for opening day, and it’s unknown when for sure he’ll return.
As far as my idea, just wait. There’s a post coming.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 14, 2011 4:03 AM EST up reply actions
This is all fairly irrelevant anyway.
The D-Backs aren’t going to move him for less than a king’s ransom anyway. They made that abundantly clear last offseason. Furthermore, he’s coming off of two surgeries (leg & hernia) and it is unclear if he will even be ready for the start of next season.
And as for the post...
…no more teasing please, just get on with it. How can I knock your idea before you state it? ;)
Sorry
I finished the last weekend of performances along with an exam, vocab quiz, grammar quiz, and project in my Greek class this last week. I promised 10 days about 5 days ago. My intention was to have everything ready before next weekend. I’m also not purely supporting one idea. I’m going to go down the road of a few of the most logical ideas (yes, I understand, why would we consider something like logic on the interwebz?!) and mostly review in detail what’s truly out there.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 14, 2011 11:25 AM EST up reply actions
Biblical Greek
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 14, 2011 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Yep, Master's of Divinity
Doing Greek this fall and Hebrew in the spring online, then full time on campus next fall.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 15, 2011 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, all right. Pujols, then.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Please
let’s not talk about UZR any more. :P
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Dodgers have been a little busy this off-season: Signing Rivera (okay – they can have him), extending Kemp, and now signing Mark Ellis. And I sure thought they would be paralyzed for a while, given their ownership having reserved parking privileges at the courthouse.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Prado and the Rockies... matching up
Purple Row has a front-page article today about their need/search for a second baseman. They note that the market for such is continuing to thin out with the re-signing of Aaron Hill to Arizona (that could be an annoying steal for them, BTW). In short, it may be down to Prado and KJ, oddly enough — and the article opines that it might actually be interesting if the Rockies were to land both of them.
As of this writing, that article already had 300 comments to it – obviously a hot topic with the Rock Fans. Prado is viewed well by their faithful, but they are afraid of how much they will have to give up in return. Obviously, Wren believes he is still holding a great hand and is refusing to part with Odarp unless somebody can meet his price. The Royals have already backed away… Colorado seems to still be working for the best deal they can get before their time runs out.
Thus far, these are the names most associated with the Prado Pursuit in Denver:
Seth Smith. Will be 30 late in 2012. Listed as their primary Rightfielder, playing 867 innings there in 2011 with another 186+ in LF. That’s 117 games’ worth of innings, though he appeared in 147 games overall.
Fielding. hard to tell overall given that expansive field in Denver. He appeared to be slightly better in LF than RF, and should probably produce league-average fielding in LF.
Hitting. Smith is a Lefty. .284/.347/.483 (.830 OPS). Averages 15-17 HR/yr. BB rate around 9%, K rate 17%. Pronounced Home/Away splits in the past: these vanished in 2011. However, he has maintained large L/R splits, so if Atlanta were to acquire Smith, it would be to platoon him with Diaz in LF for probably no more than one year. This is where his value would be (roughly .900 OPS vs. RHP; <.600 vs. LHP). But for Prado, that would not – and should not – be enough. So who else would we be looking at?
Tim Wheeler. 8th ranked prospect in their organization. AA Outfielder in 2011 (Tulsa); should probably start in AAA for 2012. 24 years old in January. There’s no altitude impact in the Texas League, so these numbers are pretty safe.
Fielding: no data.
Hitting: Breakout year at the AA level: 138 games, 637 PA. 161 hits, 33 HR, 105 Runs, 86 RBI, 21 SB. .287/.365/.535 (.900 OPS). BB/K rates: 9-10%, 19-22%. Sure looks pretty good. Oh, and did I forget to mention that he’s a switch-hitter?
Charlie Blackmon. 10th ranked prospect in their organization. Outfielder. Will be 26 years old in July… guessing his progress was injury-hampered or something – games were limited in 2010-11 (106 and 85 – though 27 were at the ML level last year).
FIelding: SSS, playing LF/CF for the Rockies – apparently didn’t embarrass himself.
Hitting: Lefty hitter. .342 at AAA Colorado Springs (definitely altitude-effected) with 10 HR in 58 games (2011). Around .970 OPS. .255 in Denver (~.550 OPS). Oddly enough, he had a SSS reverse split: .400 vs. LHP in 20 ML AB’s. Has some speed, not a lot of power, it seems. Personally, I would pass on him based on these numbers.
Who else could we use from their org?
It’s actually looking a little thin. On their prospects list, most are at the AA and lower, including the 3 LHP prospects on the list at 13th, 14th, and 17th (not counting Drew Pomeranz at #1, whom they would never part with). We don’t need Catcher WIlian Rosario (#3).
Realistically, to get decent value for Prado, those guys are about it — and I think Wheeler is the prize. Get him or hang up.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Throw in Trevor Story
And i still feel we can pry Fowler away
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Dexter Fowler ...and Trevor Story
In reading Purple Row, I realize I neglected to mention Dexter Fowler as a possible trade match-up. He’ll be 26 in early 2012 and has been mostly with the Rockies ML club for the past 3 seasons.
Fielding: CF (meh) and RF (eh). Probably about average overall, given the park.
Hitting: In 2011, he has 563 PA’s in 125 games, producing a line of .266/.363/.432 (.795 OPS). Switch-hitter with consistent averages – not great, but consistent. Does get on base, however: 12.1% walk rate.. but 23%K’s. Actually hit better in 2011 when not at Coors’ Field. Will steal a few; little power.
On balance, if we have to take a surplus OF guy from them, I would prefer Smith. If it takes getting Fowler to get us Wheeler, then… maybe, although we might not like Fowler. He did hit RHP at .270 (.807 OPS), so his value to Atlanta would again be as a Diaz platoon partner.
Trevor Story (thanks for the tip) is their #12 prospect – a Rookie ball SS/3B guy. I admit ignoring him and #11 prospect Rosell Herrera (also SS/3B) because of their positions and distance from the majors. Story turns just 19 tomorrow.
Fielding: no data
Hitting: We only have 210 PA’s in Rookie ball to see, but Story went .268/.364/.436 (.800 OPS) with 6HR, 13SB, a 12.4% walk rate, and 19.5%K rate. Scouts, please chime in on this one.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Story can’t be traded until August-ish, and Fowler is not being considered for a trade.
I think both stay put and aren’t major factors in any actual trade discussion.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
and really Arenado is the most attractive piece
but he’s nearly untouchable right now
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
carpengui---
for the three year period ending in 2010, Tulsa’s stadium had a HR park factor of 1.13. Not quite a Coors Field effect, but it is definitely not a bad place for a hitter. That’s sort of a problem for the Rockies—-all their minor league teams above low A ball play in hitters parks. Then again, so does the major league team.
Now the Tigers wanna talk Prado
MLBTR – The Tigers are interested in Braves infielder/left fielder Martin Prado, reports Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The free agent market for potential second basemen has moved quickly, with Aaron Hill and Jamey Carroll off the board and Mark Ellis close to a deal with the Dodgers. Morosi adds that the Tigers are willing to trade left fielder Delmon Young for the right second baseman, but it’s not known whether the Braves are interested.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Delmon Young: just turned 26 in Sept. Bats Right. Outfielder… sort of. He’s apparently not very good at it.
2011: down year for him: .268/.302/.393 (.695 OPS)
Career averages: .288/.321/.428 (.749).
Doesn’t steal, will hit maybe a dozen homers, Francoeur-esque walk rate (<5%), but 17% K rate. Best year was 2010… a 1.8 WAR.
Yeah, I can understand the Tigers wanting to trade him. Pass.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
What's that sound?
Is that Frank Wren laughing ? Wow, he’s really….oh, I think he just peed himself a little. Cleanup on aisle 4!
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 14, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Drew Smyly
If the Braves could get him and Young for Prado I’d be happy.
I'm up and down on Smyly
Great performance this year, but he’s the type of guy that if he loses ANYTHING, he’s basically a batting practice pitcher. Think Damian Moss.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 15, 2011 9:41 AM EST up reply actions
I've actually seen him
I see more Matt Moore(minus the wicked change) than Moss.
Wow
Wouldn’t go that far. Watched him pitch on milb.tv this summer, and he relies strongly on spotting to beat his opposition at this time. I’m not sold that will hold up going up the ladder.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
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by biggentleben on Nov 16, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
Tweet from Jim Bowden (espn/xm radio)
“Braves development people have told Gonzalez [no idea if this is Fredi or Alex being referred to – but let’s go with Fredi] that Pastornicky is ready for the big leagues.”
Well, that may take the punch out of more-than-a-few rosterbation posts. Huh.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
yeah it was an interview wih ESPN XM radio
Frank Wren told us that they are open-minded to SS…& more likely up-grade by trade than Free Agency. They do like Pastornicky but not rdy
per Bowden
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I feel
This is yet another Frank Wren smokescreen.
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by ChopMaster on Jul 7, 2011 10:24 PM CDT (joined Jul 19, 2010)
Twitter: @biggentleben
by biggentleben on Nov 14, 2011 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
good chance thats all it is
just posting the quote
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
I think Wren should definitely take his time with this Prado thing. Seems as though a lot of teams are starting to come forward now that most of the decent 2B are off the board except KJ. Would be wise to wait and listen to offers from everyone.
How about Daniel Murphy for LF?
He’s a lefty, but his splits are acceptable, and even good against left handed starters. He’s cheap and can play all over the field in a pinch. Could be a good pickup if we traded Prado for a SS.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
...
TUESDAY, 10:55am: “There is a trade brewing between the Braves and Tigers centering around Prado for [Delmon] Young,” reports ESPN’s Jim Bowden.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
F***
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
I guess on the bright side Young puts up his best seasons on even years.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
maybe Wren is just working the media
trying to get the Rox to budge on something
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Seems backwards.
Braves: So, we have this deal we’re working on with Prado for Delmon Young…
Rockies: So, your going to give us Prado and what for Seth Smith?
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Sometimes I get the feeling that the media is working the media
everybody’s in such a rush to be the first to break news, sometimes it seems easier to report that a trade is “in the works” than say “gee, I wonder if they’d do this.”
/$0.02
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
any chances
Nick Castellanos is involved if this does happen?
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Braves aren't trading for Young...
They’re trading for the prospect that comes with him, if that deal gets done.
Very Vazquez-esque.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
According to Bowman, they're not even doing that
Small minority of Wren’s staff has unsuccessfully pushed for Young last 2 yrs. Didn’t work. Nothing changed. Won’t be a Prado-Young deal
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Smiley face.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
Those members of the staff should be fired.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I'm guessing they have their reasons...
but yeah, that doesn’t sound good.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
He’s still fairly young and was a very highly touted prospect, so I could see where they’re coming from. He’s been a giant ball of unfulfilled potential thus far in his career, but maybe they’re still seeing a way for him to turn it around.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe we can lure Ande Marte back while we’re at it
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Come now, at least Young has shown flashes of his potential.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions
Unless Young is coupled with a guy named Cash, along with another prospect.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 15, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
lol
at the small minority resistance.
by drumzalicious on Nov 15, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
IMO the Tigers don’t have a prospect that would make swapping Prado for Young worth it, and IMO the strengths of their system are similar to ours, so unless this is part of some sort of 3 team deal to add an actual upgrade in LF or an elite starting SS, I don’t see any way this could be a good move for us.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I was thinking the same thing, but I’m wondering who the prospect(s) is? It’s not a guy like Boesch or Kelly. Someone in the lower minors, perhaps?
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 15, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions
This makes little to no sense to me.
We end up taking on around $2 million in salary, lose our Chipper insurance, and get a guy that, not only is he not a clear upgrade, but we have to debate about whether or not he is an upgrade at all. Not a fan, Frank. Not a fan…
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 15, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
There's no debate.
Except how much of a downgrade he would be.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
This should be fun... Let's play a game of who hangs up first?
1) Braves and Reds trade…. JJ for Cozart + 2 mil. Who hangs up first?
2) Braves and LA trade… JJ for Dee Gordon
3) Braves and Rays trade… JJ and Pastornicky for Beckham and Joel Peralta
4) Braves and Red Sox trade… JJ, Pastornicky and Delgado for Jed Lowrie, Chih-Hsien Chiang and Anthony Ranauldo
I just got tired of the mindless rosterbation… so i figured i would at least make it a game… :-) Feel free to add your own… who knows, maybe this needs to be a feature on the front page. :-D
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
Reds, Braves, Rays, Braves.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 15, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions
1) Toss-up, IMO
2) Braves
3) Rays
4) Braves
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 15, 2011 4:53 PM EST up reply actions
Well, if Prado ends up getting moved...
…then maybe this guy can back up SS and 3B for us:
The Brewers will not attempt to re-sign Milwaukee native Craig Counsell, tweets Haudricourt.Great defender, though his bad turned into a wet noodle last year: .197 BABIP average (painful). Oh, and did I mention that he’s already 41 years old? So, yeah, I found somebody older than Seabass (or Chipper, for that matter) who hits worse than Alex.
In all honesty, he hit a lot better in 2009-2010, but can anybody have a ‘bounce-back’ year at that age?
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
2 trade ideas
Jurrjens to Cincinnati for Zack Cosart and Drew Stubbs
Prado to Colorado for Tim Wheeler and Charlie Blackmon
So first of all, I know that these trades contain a lot of outfielders. I did that on purpose. We have a lack of quality, right-handed outfielders in our system, so BAM! Fixed.
In Cosart, we get a SS who won’t embarrass himself, and might turn out to be a stud. Stubbs would be our starting LF. His average-ish CF defense will play well in LF, and if he can cut down on his Ks some, he’ll be an excellent fit. He’s a righty with some speed a little pop.
In Wheeler, we get our replacement for Bourn. Wheeler had an excellent season last year at AA, and should be ready to take over center field for us in 2013. Blackmon would be our 4th outfielder. He’s a righty with good enough defense from any outfield position, and I’d consider him an upgrade over Diaz.
That only leaves the question of backing up Chipper. For that, I’d say wait for the Rox to non-tender Stewart, and sign that kid up. I think he’s worth a look as a reclamation history.
One problem with your Colorado trade there
You traded our third outfielder for a fourth one.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
But he also got a really promising CF in the deal that should be ready for 2013, so I’m for it.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 16, 2011 11:11 AM EST up reply actions
Who plays in LF?
Hinske/Diaz platoon? ::shudder::
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
I imagine a Blackmon/Diaz platoon, but trading Prado probably gives the Braves enough financial flexibility to do something in LF, like sign Beltran. In that scenario, Blackmon goes to 4th OF with Diaz in the final OF spot.
That puts JJ in a trade for the SS spot, and signing a guy that can play 2B/3B/SS on the bench. Admittedly, there aren’t a lot of those guys available.
To be honest, I don’t see both Blackmon and Wheeler moving. One or the other, I think, with Smith being involved as the other piece.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 16, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Chone Figgins is available with Seattle eating lots of salary.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 12:32 PM EST up reply actions
There are two problems with those trades.
1. The Reds aren’t moving Cosart. They have already announced he’s their starting SS for next year, and they don’t really have anyone else.
2. It doesn’t solve the RH outfielder problem—-Stubbs isn’t very good, and all the Rockies’ guys are lefties.
I believe Wheeler is a righty
I know he wouldn’t help in 2012, but still something to look forward to. Also, Stubbs really just needs to cut down on his Ks, and he’d be a very good left fielder. He walks 8-10% of the time, so if he could cut down on the holes in his swing, he’d fit right in. I see a lot of potential in Stubbs.
Stubbs' K%...
…has gone up for three consecutive years and he needs to cut it massively to be effective. Also, he turned 27 last month so I don’t know how much improvement can be expected from his career norms.
As for Wheeler, both MiLB and B-R list him as a lefty (fields righty), so I am not sure where you are getting his being a righty from.
Cincinatti eyeing JJ
Some interesting names over there
Yonder Alonso
Billy Hamilton – 2B/SS who stole 103 bases last year(!!!!). I didn’t think that happened anymore.
Drew Stubbs
Alonso has a nice bat, but he’s a butcher. Hamilton is the fastest guy in pro baseball right now, but he’s a year away. Stubbs would be nice, especially if we could find a way to fix his swing flaws.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
no thanks on Stubbs. The guy K’s a ton.
by drumzalicious on Nov 15, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
Well I mentioned he has flaws, but he’s in his prime and can easily be a 20/40 guy.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Id take Yonder in a heart beat, kid can rake
He would also be able to spell Freddie at first. As for Stubbs, he does have good potential and with more experience could reclaim some plate discipline.
by DustinSmith on Nov 15, 2011 11:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'd take stubbs and Hamilton in a heartbeat
40 SBs from Stubbs this year then if we loose bourn and add a SS whose the fastest guy in baseball.. I like it
That's a lot of speed without a lot of hitting.
Questionable whether Hamilton will ever hit enough to make the majors, and he is years away, not just a year, he’s very young and raw. Stubbs has some speed and pop, but he’s got a lifetime .725 OPS in a hitters’ park because he doesn’t get on base a lot.
Of the teams we've been linked to
either with JJ or Prado deals, there are alot of 3B prospects that have to be very attractive to FW.
Nolan Arenado COL – many say untouchable
Nick Castellanos DET
Francisco Martinez DET
Matt Davidson – ARI
Bobby Borchering ARI
Juan Francisco CIN
Mike Olt TEX – I believe I saw them linked to JJ
Also
Mariners could be a suitor JJ
Alex Liddi and Carlos Triunfel
And the ChiSox always seem to be linked to Braves trade rumors
Brent Morel and Dayan Viciedo
Obviously, immediate upgrades at LF and SS are the purpose of any JJ/Prado deal. But i believe some is cost related as well. But I would love to land a potential 3B replacement down the road in one of these deals as well.
Spring Training is the greatest thing that can't end soon enough
Video game trade!
Jurrjens, Prado, Delgado, and Pastornicky for Elvis Andrus, Nelson Cruz and Michael Young (plus 22M).
Michael Bourn CF
Elvis Andrus SS
Chipper Jones 3B
Brian McCann C
Dan Uggla 2B
Freddie Freeman 1B
Nelson Cruz LF
Jason Heyward RF
Everyone gets two free stupid comments. After that, I start charging.
by Wren_and_Stimpy on Nov 16, 2011 12:50 AM EST reply actions
You’d probably have to start Young at SS and have Andrus as a defensive replacement. Young, I believe, has 10-5 and wouldn’t accept a trade to be a backup.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
If we're pulling full on Marissa Miller and Adriana Lima 3some level fantasy anyway
why add Young at all? I’d be fine with Jurrjens, Prado, Delgado for Andrus and Cruz.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 16, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
Young could take over for Chipper after the season and Andrus then becomes the starter. I’d be ok with that.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions
And Young’s contract runs through 2013 when Terdoslovich or Salcedo should be about ready to take over at 3B. I’m kind of talking myself into this idea.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
I'm guessing to fill the utility role.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Which there is 0% chance of him accepting.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions
Of course
Just guessing at the method behind the madness.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Cubs say anyone is available in trade
Soooooo
Simmons
Delgado
Bethancourt
Lipka
Spruill
For
Castro
Byrd
Let’s Prado be either a super utility player or just get us some prospects.
by drumzalicious on Nov 16, 2011 12:28 PM EST via mobile reply actions
back away from the keyboard
Castro’s a stud and Byrd’s serviceable, but that’s WAYYYYYY too much.
by JoelGuzman'sScout on Nov 16, 2011 4:43 PM EST up reply actions
true fact.
but if we were to seriously think the Cubs may possibly be open to trading Castro, would an offer starting with JJ/Prado/ Delgado, plus TP, and one of three prospects (say Spruill/Hoover/_?) be enough to start negotiations?
how much would we be willing to give up for Castro?
They’re aiming for a complete re-build. JJ and Prado would be worthless to them because they lack a lot of team control.
by drumzalicious on Nov 16, 2011 6:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
yeah, probably so.
note, however, I was not suggesting JJ and Prado, but rather JJ or Prado or Delgado as the 1st piece,and then TP (rather than Simmons) as the 2d piece, and their choice of one of three B or B+ prospects as the 3d piece.
And I think giving up Bethancourt would be almost unthinkable to the Braves right now. McCann is a great star and only 27-28 yrs old, but catchers are inherently subject to a huge amount of wear and tear, and there is also always the risk of major injury.
I’m thinking a 3 for 1 trade, not a 4 for 1, and my question is what is a strong enough package to at least open some serious talks.
Well most scouts rate Simmons above Pastornicky as a SS because they all feel he belongs at 2B. So if you do 3 for one they’d definitely want Simmons. I’d say Simmons, Delgado, and someone else not named Teheran/Minor/Vizcaino. Probably a pitcher.
by drumzalicious on Nov 16, 2011 7:16 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
not at all
Simmons is great defensively but his bat still needs some work. Plus we’d have to give up a SS prospect to get someone like Castro.
Bethancourt – Blocked.
Spruill – We have so much elite pitching we won’t miss him.
Lipka – great defense no bat this past year.
Delgado – gotta give up quality to get it.
To be honest I’d probably restructure that and not get Byrd.
Simmons
Spruill
Bethancourt
Lipka
For Castro.
Start the season like this
Bourn CF
Castro SS
Chip 3B
McCann C
Uggla LF
Heyward RF
Freeman 1B
Pastornicky 2B
Trade Prado for a CF prospect and keep J.J. until the deadline when his value will be higher.
by drumzalicious on Nov 16, 2011 6:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I doubt they would go for it.
Would you take that package for Freeman, for example? I just don’t see the Cubs moving Castro without a ridiculous return, he is too valuable.
True. We’d definitely have to have one of the “Big Four” in there. So Delgado in place of Spruill probably.
by drumzalicious on Nov 17, 2011 8:53 PM EST up reply actions
No way Uggla gets moved to Left
It was a particularly small egg...thats why I asked.
by thenightstallion on Nov 17, 2011 6:17 PM EST up reply actions
why not
in that situation we upgrade our INF defense and Uggla’a bat in LF is the LF RH bat we’ve been wanting for years.
by drumzalicious on Nov 17, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions
Why does it matter where he plays for his hitting?
I just don’t get that at all.
We should sign Jamie Moyer.
Just for the pure comedy of watching batters face him followed by CK.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
is no one else down
for constanza as the backup CF?
Nope. I think we’re all fine with him being the injury backup in AAA though.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 16, 2011 4:28 PM EST up reply actions
Less than seven hours and Wren hasn’t gotten me a birthday present yet…last year, I got Dan Uggla.
All I have to say is that his belated gift better be something special if he forgets…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
OK C,
time to take him off your Christmas card list. He didn’t get you anything.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
Maybe it got delayed in the mail.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 17, 2011 10:41 AM EST up reply actions
Inorite??
Maybe he’ll atone in a big way today…
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
by cthabeerman on Nov 17, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Nate McLouth
I’d be curious to see if we couldn’t get him to sign a minor league deal if he doesn’t get a lot of interest. Decent guy to have sitting around in case of an injury.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
If by decent you mean a poor fielding, poor hitting, corner outfielder, then sure.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
He fields the corners fine, and he still gets on base pretty well. Not to mention his base running is well above average.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 17, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
the only reason he got on base is because he was hitting in front of the pitcher.
by drumzalicious on Nov 17, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions
Really? Not this again.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
you and i both know
that when Nate was out of that #8 spot he wasn’t getting on base the same. Schafer was the same way.
by drumzalicious on Nov 18, 2011 3:14 AM EST up reply actions
You're right
And it’s because he was batting in front of the pitcher; the opposing pitchers were OK with pitching around him, which led to him getting a lot of walks and getting on base more.
It has nothing to do with the fact that he had more games batting 8th last year than he did at every other spot in the lineup combined.
Just ignore his AVG and SLG. It’s clearly just anomalies, since we know he was being pitched around, he shouldn’t have seen any actual hittable pitches.
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
So Nate McLouth has the skills that allow him to get on base at a .411 clip, but only when he’s batting in the 8th spot in the order?
Once again, we’d better give him a contract ASAP and write his name the 8th spot with ink, because that sort of ability would be incredibly valuable to any club.
Who knew you could get star level production out of a guy just by batting him in front of the pitcher?
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Let me ask the question this way, then:
given that in 2011, the Braves went through Joe Mather, Matt Young, Jordan Schaefer, Wilkin Ramirez before giving up and coming back to Caveman, who is available out on the free agent market that’s better as a possible fourth/fifth outfielder than Nate McLouth?
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Rick Ankiel, Coco Crisp, Pat Burrell, Endy Chavez, David Dejesus, Mark Derosa, Jonny Gomes, Reed Johnson, Magglio Ordonez, Cody Ross, Eric Hinske, J.D. Drew, Jerry Hairston, and Andruw Jones.
Just to name a few.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Pretty much that entire list would get a major league deal, which isn’t what I was talking about at all.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 18, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions
…and you really think half that list is better than Nate for that position? Really?
Hinske, for instance, might hit better, but he’s not going to be a better outfielder. Ditto for Gomes (who nobody wanted at the trade deadline last year).
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Hinske would get chosen by 30 out of 30 teams if given the choice between him and Mclouth for a 4th outfield spot.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
Hmmm… then wouldn’t it follow that we should have played Hinske as an everyday OF and had Nate coming off the bench since we had both of them? Note that we picked up Diaz because.. well, several reasons, but I gotta believe one of them was because we didn’t want Hinske playing OF very much. That’s also why we went through Mather, Young, Ramirez, etc.
Look, it’s really a dice roll on how teams want to treat that position: do you think you’re gonna need a better defender, or better pinch-hitter, or a more everyday/platoon guy, or in-case-or-emergency-break-glass guy? All of that factors into what kind of player you get. I do think KoG’s point is valid: Nate odes have good enough skills to play all OF positions, can hit some, and can run. That’s truly a better package than most other available players – including (IMHO) the ones on your list… depending on the money.
Regarding the Braves specifically, though: we may actually not need another OFer… we already have Caveman and Hinske under contract.. cheaply. There are a L/R pinch hit set, and if (when) Prado is at third, they are a platoon set. So that’s already 5 OFs, with Constanza hanging around on the interstate between Gwinnett and Atlanta.
So while I rather doubt that we’ll come back to Nate, I do think he’ll be picked up by somebody before Christmas.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Hit hit for enough power to warrant playing in a corner, can’t defend well enough to warrant playing in center, can’t hit for average to warrant playing anywhere.
If a team picks him up, they will have to be reeaaalllyy hard up. Every team has someone in AAA who can do what Mclouth brings.
Freeman isn’t on Heyward’s level in terms of tools, skills, or baseball IQ–but it’s fair to say Freeman has failed to meet the modest expectations in place for him - Capitol Avenue Club (May 28th, 2011)
So what IS an "Impact Bat", anyway?
One GM interested in Braves righty Jair Jurrjens does not believe he will be traded. The Braves seek an impact bat in return.
Quotes like this beg the question on what it means to get an impact bat. Hopefully, the following (obnoxiously large) spreadsheet will help answer that question.
This chart show the batting stats for all qualified hitters in the 2010-2011 seasons combined. You can perhaps argue with the duration – I chose two years to start establishing a trend. The primary column used for sorting is fangraphs’ wRAA figure, which is the offensive-side input to WAR. Since this post is all about hitting, I am discounting base running, fielding, and most anything else that’s not directed toward hitting the baseball hard. That’s why Michael Bourn ended up way down on the list, for instance.
You can choose to argue chart nuances at will (especially after yesterday’s stats threads!). For example, Chase Headley is a guy who is compromised on this chart due to severe home/away splits. It’s probable that he would thrive outside of San Diego. Then there’s Prado, who suffers from his poor 2011 campaign. Are these guys “impact” enough? That’s the point at which I exit and encourage further discussion. But pretty clearly, if you want an “impact bat” added to your lineup, you’ll likely want a guy from the top half of the chart.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
Again...josh Willingham. That was Willingham in a down year, for him. Still registers as an impact bat.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
Registered
with his obp decline, it remains to be seen just how much impact he’ll continue to give. he could very well be nearing Sexson Cliff.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
by Mr. Sanchez on Nov 18, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
At age 32 there’s a good chance that “down year” translates to the start of his decline as a hitter. I’d be very nervous about giving him a multi-year deal.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
Depends on the money
And it always depends on the money.
I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that his down season occurred during his first season in a very pitcher friendly park, during a very pitcher friendly season (for whatever reason). Beyond that, his walk rate last year, dipping extremely low for him, only put him just barely behind what Chipper and McCann did last season, so he’d still have been the fifth highest on the team, ahead of guys like Hinske, Uggla, Freeman, Prado, and Bourn. And he’s normally several ticks higher than that.
He made $6 million last year. I’d give that to him every year for the next 4 and be THRILLED about it.
My buddy and I just decided that the braves would be set if we could get Matt Kemp, Jose Reyes, and Albert Pujols.
by willlinn on May 17, 2011 2:13 PM EDT
I think that $8 MM a year or more is what he’ll end up getting.
I think his rise in K rate and down tick in walk rate (seemingly to facilitate hitting more HR) is a bad sign going forward. Either he was just going for the fences so he could cash in as a FA, or he became less selective in order to compensate for something.
Q: If not us, who? If not now, when? A: The Batman. And "when you least expect it."
I'd be more nervous about having him a position...
…that isn’t DH. His bat is fine, but his defense isn’t any good at all. When you combine offense and defense, he isn’t any better than Prado.
By the way...
Chipper’s wRAA for 2010-11: 23.3.
Freddie Freeman: 12.5 in just one year.
David Ross: 8.9 in just 316 plate appearances… projects to being at least Brian McCann territory.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
So
The Red Sox are apparently shopping around Michael Bowden. I think he’d be a great pick up. I’m still not sure why he was switched from a starter to a reliever. Either way he’d be a good pickup for us
Maybe I'm naive
but why is no one talking about Grady Sizemore? Just his injury prone nature, his decline on the field this past year? I, for one, think he could really bounce back if he was acquired by a veteran team where the pressure to hit at the top of the order was taken off his shoulders. I LOVE Thinking of Sizemore in left, and don’t know that it’d cost all that much to take a chance.
Ummm... I think I know this guy... And he mentioned something about him being a great option...
and tomatoes came flying at the stage… I wasn’t even doing stand-up… :(
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 18, 2011 9:02 AM EST up reply actions
Probably because he’s played a grand total of 210 games in the last three seasons, hasn’t played particularly well in any of those seasons (2009 was solid and I’d certainly take that but that is the furthest away of the three seasons), and is likely going to require a 5M or so committment before incentives even come up. I’d rather take the risk on Cespedes if we’re playing the risk/reward game even though it’ll be a greater number of years. Sure envisioning Sizemore 2008 version is nice but you are far more likely to get the 2011 version
by McCann's the Man on Nov 18, 2011 10:04 AM EST up reply actions
This isn’t a half bad stance… I like the idea of bringing the Cuban on board… Especially w/ the latin american presence in our dugout…
I disagree on Sizemore though… Perhaps because i’m a homer… I love the guy. I think he’s going to have a resurgent year worthly of a 5 year contract (of course not one we need to pay) but I’d love to be the team he’s on when he comes back to relevance…
Got it, microfracture surgury…. I think the teams that don’t take a $5 million risk on him are going to regret it. Having a Bourn, Heyward, Sizemore outfield would make me drool. It would rival any OF in MLB. Just to complete the rosterbatory thought, I’d even consider batting him 2nd to take pressure of him needing to hit homers or steal bases… If we just let him hit the ball in play, I think we will have a gem of a 2 hitter…
Bourn
Sizemore
Chipper
Uggla/McCann
McCann/Uggla
Freeman
Heyward
SS (preferably someone like Jack Wilson who can at least pull the bat off his shoulder and still play good defense)
I don’t know how you could complain about a lineup like that… Especially if Sizemore comes close to his pre-injury numbers.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 18, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
To me... Sizemore is a more sure thing at the MLB level than Cespedes.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 18, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I like the idea of Sizemore if he can take a 1 yr, incentive laden deal. He’s worth the risk if you get the upside, because he’d be a helluva #2 hitter.
But I also like Cespedes, as he sounds like great potential. Problem is, you can’t realistically expect the man to step in from day 1 and start 150+ MLB games. It’ll take time, maybe a year in AA/AAA to get up to speed. It’d be a good idea, if we can afford it, to bring in both. Maybe one or the other.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Just don't buy it, sorry.
Sizemore, at this point in his career, is a downgrade from Prado. If we want him as the fourth OF who plays a lot because he can play all three OF positions and because Prado will play plenty of 3B, that’s fine, but Sizemore is four years and multiple surgeries removed from being better than Prado. This massive resurgence has been predicted for a couple of years now, I am just not buying.
If we move Jurrjens for a solid prospect package
I’d think we can afford Sizemore as that 4th OF.
McCann
Freeman
Uggla
cheap veteran, Pastornicky or Jurrjens return
Chipper
Heyward
Bourn
Prado
with a bench of Ross, Hinske, Sizemore, a backup SS (Hicks, Hernandez, or Jack Wilson, among others possible), and 1 of Diaz or Conrad
http://sportsandgrits.com/
Sizemore isn’t going to sign for a bench spot.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 18, 2011 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
If he's 100%, or close to it
I’d assume he starts and Prado goes to that super ut role on the bench. If not, then he won’t start for anyone else either and can be kept fresh with less than regular at bats.
http://sportsandgrits.com/
The potential of signing Sizemore depends entirely upon how much it would cost. If he’s willing to a sign a very team-friendly, one year, make-good deal than he is totally worth taking a flier on—and could be the sort of affordable reclamation project the Braves have shown a penchant for. However, his injury history over the past three years, and his decline in numbers from his peak years in 06, 07, and 08 are not good signs, and any sort of expensive contract, or multi-year contract, is a bad idea.
I’m not 100% opposed to Sizemore, as a lot of people are, but also definitely be aware that it’s more than just one year of decline. His fielding numbers the past two years are pretty bad—albeit, both years are severely injury-shortened and in CF, he may be a great LF option—and his batting numbers have been dropping since 08 (his last of the three great seasons that made him a star-caliber player).
by TheMattHatter on Nov 18, 2011 10:05 AM EST up reply actions
I'm going to throw a new name out there... One NO ONE has mentioned, guaranteed.
We need to find some way to sign Tim Tebow. That man wins games… I bet you put a batting helmet or a glove in his hand and he will do the same thing… :-) It won’t be pretty… but my goodness… :-) Anyone on board?
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 18, 2011 1:14 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
You had me at “Tebow”.
If we can land [Stephen Drew], I will give FW a bj.
~justincredubil02
by king of games on Nov 18, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, well, he had me at "Tim"
Most people use statistics the way a drunk would use a lamppost—for support, and not for illumination.
www.duwanis.com
by duwanis on Nov 18, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Oh for Chrisssssakes….
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that." George Carlin
by DolphinNation on Nov 18, 2011 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Tebow will be the second worst thing to happen to the Broncos from the past decade to the next decade.
First, of course, is the man responsible for drafting him (and K. Moreno…and D. Thomas). Josh McDaniels did more to screw over a major sports organization than perhaps anyone in any sport in less than a two-year timespan.
-C
It’s rough to sit through these games and not have someone that can’t hit a Ball?
I'm fully aware of this.
I’m a huge Broncos fan, and am not lying when I say if I saw JMcD in person I would go to jail for the assault i inflicted upon him. “Hey, I’ve got an idea. The best QB and WR just came off of pro bowl seasons, let’s trade them both in successive years then draft Tim Tebow!” Are you fucking kidding me? Then, ya know, Cutler takes the shitty Bears to an NFC championship and Brandon Marshall is still catching 10 balls a game with Matt Moore throwing it to him against the best corners. Unbelievable. FML.
Sorry, El Presidente...
…but I beat ya to it by almost 2 hours over here. Hee hee hee.
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
You totally suck...
Here I was trying to bring new and excited content to TC… didn’t we have a clause in your contract that all future correspondence was vetted through the office of the president so as to avoid such embarrassments?! Shenanigans.
Don’t worry about older women until you turn 22. It’s called the Saltalamacchia.
by bwellnjonesco on May 19, 2011 4:13 PM PDT
by Klemson Krash on Nov 21, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
END
Please us New Rosterbation Thread over at this link
"Forget Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw or Cliff Lee, the NL Cy Young Award should go to O’Ventrel." - David Schoenfield, ESPN.com, 8/19/11
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