Braves Quote For The Day ... Is That A Rumor I Hear

His peripherals suggest he pitched over his head this season due to that BB rate you mentioned. He got himself out of a lot of jams.

I am optimistic about a rebound from Prado. His staph infection I think was much worse than people on here think, but whatever. I am also optimistic about a Heyward rebound too. I don’t give up on players for one bad year, when they proved the year before that they can hit MLB pitching. But hey, that’s just me.

Do you really think that Prado is going to net both Myers and Cain, and more to boot??

-C

You sure are putting a lot of hope in Cain who is 25 years old(will be 26 early April) and has a career 49 MLB games. You sure have more trust in him than me…

The difference is using rWAR vs. fWAR. Both use linear weights in order to determine a rate at which players perform, and multiply it by the amount of time the player plays in a given season to create a numerical value for total contribution in relation to a replacement player.

The difference between the two, offensively, is that rWAR’s batting component is equated to the number of actual runs scored by each team.

This, simply put, is not very good, in my opinion. It’s going to cause inconsistencies on the value of each possible outcome – out, walk, single, double, triple, and HR, because if a triple was hit and no run was scored, that offensive contribution is being ignored. A double for one team will be worth more than a double for another team, because one team scores more or less than another.

fWAR, from fangraphs, has determined weighted values for each outcome, regardless of the end result, outside of a team-based environment. There’s a definite value from hitting a double, even if the runner ends up stranded. Fangraphs calculates that, and nothing is excluded. Hunter Pence’s double is worth the same in Houston or Philadelphia, which is not true in rWAR’s offensive component.

rWAR also tends to be far more weighted toward offensive rather than defensive contributions, and total zone has been considered to be an inferior defensive system to UZR by most sabermetricians.

It is important to note that UZR is only available for the time since Baseball Info Solutions has been compiling fielding data, which is 2002 or thereabouts, where total zone can be used to sort out historical defensive data because it’s based upon things like number of assists, putouts, etc., rather than on-field data of where the ball was hit in relation to another ball and whether an average fielder should or should not be able to reach that batted ball.

It goes a lot deeper than that and there’s plenty of good reading out there. I recommend fWAR in almost every circumstance, but there is value in comparing the two, as both can carry statistical inconsistencies.

-C

I could be off here, but I thought his WAR was this:

2008: 1.3
2009: 3.2
2010: 4.4
2011: 1.6

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3312&position=2B/3B

I use fangrpahs. I

I’d rather have a .450-460 SLG with 20+ HRs

If you can convince Uggla to move to LF cool. I’d inform Bourn to make sure he ditches the cleats and wears track shoes out there then.

annnnnnnnnnnnd on that note, my brain just short-circuited.

Glad I’m not the only one!!

But seriously, I try to read as much as I can about these things, and I’ve still just scratched the surface. I’m not likely to ever understand it as well as the folks even writing about these stats, let alone the ones creating them.

Right now, I’m happy with a working understanding of most of this stuff, but I’m not there yet. One day, I’d like to have a full understanding of every statistic available on any given player’s fangraphs page, but I doubt I’ll accomplish that before I pass on.

-C

It’s a figure based upon what free agents actually signed for, based upon their previous production.

So last year’s $4.5MM/WAR is based upon what production Werth and Crawford and the like put up in 2010 versus their average annual contract value (i.e., if a player gets a six-year deal worth $60MM, the AAV is $10MM, even if he only makes $4MM in that first year).

Next year’s $/WAR figure will be based on contracts of the 2012 FAs, from Pujols to Sea Bass.

The interesting thing is that the superstars usually aren’t getting the most $/WAR. It’s the ‘tweeners, the guys with high-upside that haven’t actually produced to their perceived talent, and the veterans stars that have declined that are getting the most.

Werth received $3MM or so less than his WAR-adjusted salary in actual money, and Crawford was $10MM less after an amazing 2010…but the Jeters (production worth $4MM less)and Carlos Penas (production worth $5.5MM less) and pretty much the majority of relief pitchers really throw off the curve.

Octavio Dotel, for instance, earned $3.5MM after putting up 0.1 WAR, worth roughly $450K. That’s almost 8x as much as he was worth. Though a smaller amount, it really fucks up the curve.

One potential criticism of this system is that players sign deals based upon more than one season’s worth of data, which is true.

Tthe guy that had two bad years prior to a breakout year is going to get paid more than he should, given his past history. Likewise, a player with two great seasons followed by a poor one will make less than he should, given past history. It balances.

This is an actual results-based statistic. 150-ish players earned X amount WAR and were paid Y amount of money for that WAR in free agency.

-C